Contrasting age-specific recruitment and survival at different spatial scales: a case study with the European storm petrel

Evolutionary studies on optimal decisions or conservation guidelines are often derived by generalising patterns from a single population, while inter‐population variability in life‐history traits is seldom considered. We investigated here how survival and recruitment probabilities changed with age at different geographical scales using the encounter histories of 5523 European storm petrels from three Mediterranean colonies, and also how our estimates of these parameters might be expected to affect population growth rates using population matrix models. We recorded similar patterns among colonies, but also important biological differences. Local survival, recruitment and breeding success increased with age at all colonies; the most distant of three colonies (Marettimo Is.) showed the largest differences. Strikingly, differences in recruitment were also found between two adjacent colonies (two caves from Benidorm Is.). Birds marked as adults from Marettimo and Benidorm colonies had a different survival, whereas we found no differences within Benidorm. Differences in survival were no longer apparent between the two islands at the end of the study following a reduction in predation by specialist gulls at Benidorm. Since birds marked as fledglings mostly recruited near the end of the study, their overall survival was high and in turn similar among colonies. Results from our population matrix models suggested that different age‐dependent patterns of demographic parameters can lead to similar population growth rates. Variability appeared to be greater for recruitment and the most sensitive parameter was adult survival. Thus conservation actions targeting this vulnerable species should focus on factors influencing adult survival. Differences in survival and recruitment among colonies could reflect the spatial heterogeneity in mortality due to predation and colony‐specific density dependent processes. Results highlight the importance of taking into account the potential spatio‐temporal heterogeneity among populations in vital rates, even in those traits that life‐history theory considers less important in driving population dynamics.     

Generalized models vs. classification tree analysis: Predicting spatial distributions of plant species at different scales

Abstract. Statistical models of the realized niche of species are increasingly used, but systematic comparisons of alternative methods are still limited. In particular, only few studies have explored the effect of scale in model outputs. In this paper, we investigate the predictive ability of three statistical methods (generalized linear models, generalized additive models and classification tree analysis) using species distribution data at three scales: fine (Catalonia), intermediate (Portugal) and coarse (Europe). Four Mediterranean tree species were modelled for comparison. Variables selected by models were relatively consistent across scales and the predictive accuracy of models varied only slightly. However, there were slight differences in the performance of methods. Classification tree analysis had a lower accuracy than the generalized methods, especially at finer scales. The performance of generalized linear models also increased with scale. At the fine scale GLM with linear terms showed better accuracy than GLM with quadratic and polynomial terms. This is probably because distributions at finer scales represent a linear sub‐sample of entire realized niches of species. In contrast to GLM, the performance of GAM was constant across scales being more data‐oriented. The predictive accuracy of GAM was always at least equal to other techniques, suggesting that this modelling approach is more robust to variations of scale because it can deal with any response shape.     

Relevance of multiple spatial scales in habitat models: A case study with amphibians and grasshoppers

Habitat models for animal species are important tools in conservation planning. We assessed the need to consider several scales in a case study for three amphibian and two grasshopper species in the post-mining landscapes near Leipzig (Germany). The two species groups were selected because habitat analyses for grasshoppers are usually conducted on one scale only whereas amphibians are thought to depend on more than one spatial scale.First, we analysed how the preference to single habitat variables changed across nested scales. Most environmental variables were only significant for a habitat model on one or two scales, with the smallest scale being particularly important. On larger scales, other variables became significant, which cannot be recognized on lower scales. Similar preferences across scales occurred in only 13 out of 79 cases and in 3 out of 79 cases the preference and avoidance for the same variable were even reversed among scales.Second, we developed habitat models by using a logistic regression on every scale and for all combinations of scales and analysed how the quality of habitat models changed with the scales considered. To achieve a sufficient accuracy of the habitat models with a minimum number of variables, at least two scales were required for all species except for Bufo viridis, for which a single scale, the microscale, was sufficient. Only for the European tree frog (Hyla arborea), at least three scales were required.The results indicate that the quality of habitat models increases with the number of surveyed variables and with the number of scales, but costs increase too. Searching for simplifications in multi-scaled habitat models, we suggest that 2 or 3 scales should be a suitable trade-off, when attempting to define a suitable microscale.     

Modelling species distributions in Britain: a hierarchical integration of climate and land-cover data

A modelling framework for studying the combined effects of climate and land-cover changes on the distribution of species is presented. The model integrates land-cover data into a correlative bioclimatic model in a scale-dependent hierarchical manner, whereby Artificial Neural Networks are used to characterise species' climatic requirements at the European scale and land-cover requirements at the British scale. The model has been tested against an alternative non-hierarchical approach and has been applied to four plant species in Britain: Rhynchospora alba , Erica tetralix , Salix herbacea and Geranium sylvaticum . Predictive performance has been evaluated using Cohen's Kappa statistic and the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, and a novel approach to identifying thresholds of occurrence which utilises three levels of confidence has been applied. Results demonstrate reasonable to good predictive performance for each species, with the main patterns of distribution simulated at both 10 km and 1 km resolutions. The incorporation of land-cover data was found to significantly improve purely climate-driven predictions for R. alba and E. tetralix , enabling regions with suitable climate but unsuitable land-cover to be identified. The study thus provides an insight into the roles of climate and land-cover as determinants of species' distributions and it is demonstrated that the modelling approach presented can provide a useful framework for making predictions of distributions under scenarios of changing climate and land-cover type. The paper confirms the potential utility of multi-scale approaches for understanding environmental limitations to species' distributions, and demonstrates that the search for environmental correlates with species' distributions must be addressed at an appropriate spatial scale. Our study contributes to the mounting evidence that hierarchical schemes are characteristic of ecological systems.     

The quest for a null model for macroecological patterns: geometry of species distributions at multiple spatial scales

There have been several attempts to build a unified framework for macroecological patterns. However, these have mostly been based either on questionable assumptions or have had to be parameterized to obtain realistic predictions. Here, we propose a new model explicitly considering patterns of aggregated species distributions on multiple spatial scales, the property which lies behind all spatial macroecological patterns, using the idea we term 'generalized fractals'. Species' spatial distributions were modelled by a random hierarchical process in which the original 'habitat' patches were randomly replaced by sets of smaller patches nested within them, and the statistical properties of modelled species assemblages were compared with macroecological patterns in observed bird data. Without parameterization based on observed patterns, this simple model predicts realistic patterns of species abundance, distribution and diversity, including fractal-like spatial distributions, the frequency distribution of species occupancies/abundances and the species–area relationship. Although observed macroecological patterns may differ in some quantitative properties, our concept of random hierarchical aggregation can be considered as an appropriate null model of fundamental macroecological patterns which can potentially be modified to accommodate ecologically important variables.     

Impacts of a pesticide on pollinator species richness at different spatial scales

Pesticides are an important potential cause of biodiversity and pollinator decline. Little is known about the impacts of pesticides on wild pollinators in the field. Insect pollinators were sampled in an agricultural system in Italy with the aim of detecting the impacts of pesticide use. The insecticide fenitrothion was over 150 times greater in toxicity than other pesticides used in the area, so sampling was set up around its application. Species richness of wild bees, bumblebees and butterflies were sampled at three spatial scales to assess responses to pesticide application: (i) the ‘field’ scale along pesticide drift gradients; (ii) the ‘landscape’ scale sampling in different crops within the area and (iii) the ‘regional’ scale comparing two river basins with contrasting agricultural intensity. At the field scale, the interaction between the application regime of the insecticide and the point in the season was important for species richness. Wild bee species richness appeared to be unaffected by one insecticide application, but declined after two and three applications. At the landscape scale, the species richness of wild bees declined in vine fields where the insecticide was applied, but did not decline in maize or uncultivated fields. At the regional scale, lower bumblebee and butterfly species richness was found in the more intensively farmed basin with higher pesticide loads. Our results suggest that wild bees are an insect pollinator group at particular risk from pesticide use. Further investigation is needed on how the type, quantity and timing of pesticide application impacts pollinators.     

Identifying biases at different spatial and temporal scales of diversification: a case study in the Neotropical parrotlet genus Forpus

The temporal origins of the extraordinary biodiversity of the Neotropical region are highly debated. Recent empirical work has found support for alternative models on the tempo of speciation in Neotropical species further fuelling the debate. However, relationships within many Neotropical lineages are poorly understood, and it is unclear how this uncertainty impacts inferences on the evolution of taxa in the region. We examined the robustness of diversification patterns in the avian genus Forpus by testing whether the use of different units of biodiversity (i.e. biological species and statistically inferred species) impacted diversification rates and inferences regarding important biogeographic breaks in the genus. We found that the best‐fit model of diversification for the biological species data set was a declining rate of diversification; whereas a model of constant diversification was the best‐fit model for statistically inferred species or subspecies. Moreover, the relative importance of different landscape features in delimiting genetic structure across the landscape varied across data sets with differing units of biodiversity. Patterns based on divergence times among biological species indicated old speciation events across major geographic and river barriers. In contrast, data sets more inclusive of the diversity in Forpus illustrate the role of both old divergence across major landscape features and more recent divergences that are possibly attributed to Pleistocene climatic changes. Overall, these results indicate that conflicting models on the temporal origins of Neotropical birds may be attributable to sampling biases.     

物种灭绝对不同时间尺度人类活动的响应机制研究

通过修改Tilman的多物种共存的经典模式中栖息地毁坏率（D）,使D随时间的推移呈线性增长情况下,本文模拟了百万年、万年和百年尺度人类活动对栖息地的破坏下,物种灭绝对栖息地毁坏的响应特征。结果表明,大时间尺度人类活动对栖息地毁坏导致物种的强弱关系发生变化,并且强物种先灭绝,而小时间尺度人类活动对栖息地破坏是弱物种先灭绝;在百万年和万年尺度上,物种对栖息地毁坏的响应是减幅振荡衰退直至灭绝,并且最强物种对栖息地的占有率（q）越大,振幅越大,而在百年尺度上,物种的演化几乎是直线衰退;在大时间尺度的栖息地毁坏情况下,q越大,则物种灭绝起始时间和所有物种灭绝的时间越长;而在较小的时间尺度的栖息地毁坏情况下,q越大,灭绝起始时间和所有物种最终灭绝的时间则越短。     

The relative importance of refugia in determining the drift and habitat selection of predaceous stoneflies in a sandy-bottomed stream

Patch structure in sandy, compared to rocky streams, is characterized by isolated snags that can only be colonized by drifting. By measuring drift from patches (snags) of various quality we determined the factors that influence habitat selection and drift of the predaceous stoneflies Acroneuria abnormis and Paragnetina fumosa. The presence of refugia (loose bark and leaf packs) was more important than hunger level and modified the effects of increased predator densities and aggressive interactions. Stoneflies concentrated to 8x natural densities with access to refugia remained longer on snags than a single stonefly without access to refugia. During periods of activity, refugia were defended with larger stoneflies always displacing smaller nymphs. During long periods of inactivity, two and sometimes three nymphs would rest side-by-side sharing the same refuge. Hunger level (starved versus satiated stoneflies), an indirect measure of a predator's response to prey availability, had no significant effect on drift or habitat selection regardless of the presence of refugia. Stonefly predators had a uniform distribution while their prey were clumped. Drift was deliberate and almost always delayed until night, usually at dusk or dawn. An examination of previous research plus the results of this study suggest that non-predatory intra- and interspecific interactions can be an important mechanism causing drift in streams.     

The relative importance of factors determining genetic drift: mating system, spatial genetic structure, habitat and census size in Arabidopsis lyrata

? The mating system, dispersal and census size are predicted to determine the magnitude of genetic drift, but little is known about their relative importance in nature. ? We estimated the contributions of several population-level features to genetic drift in 18 populations of Arabidopsis lyrata. The factors were outcrossing rate, within-population spatial genetic structure, census size and substrate type. The expected heterozygosity (H(E)) at 10 microsatellite loci was taken to reflect the effective population size (N(e)) and the strength of genetic drift. ? The mating system explained most of the variation in H(E) (60%), followed by substrate (10%), genetic structure (9%) and census size (6%). The most outcrossing population had a +0.32 higher predicted H(E) than the most selfing population; the estimated N(e) of selfing populations was less than half that of outcrossing populations. Rocky outcrops supported populations with a +0.14 higher H(E) than did sandy substrates. The most structured population had a +0.24 higher H(E) than the least structured population, and the largest population had a +0.18 higher H(E) than the smallest population. ? This study illustrates the importance of outcrossing, genetic structure and the physical environment--together with census size--in maintaining H(E), and suggests that multiple population-level characteristics influence N(e) and the action of genetic drift.     

The reliability of a composite biodiversity indicator in predicting bird species richness at different spatial scales

Several biodiversity features can be linked to landscape heterogeneity, that, in turn, can be informative for management and conservation purposes. Usually, the more the landscape is complex the more the biodiversity increases. Biodiversity indicators can be a useful tool to assess biodiversity status, in function of landscape heterogeneity. In this study, we developed a biodiversity indicator, based on Shannon diversity index and built from distribution maps of protected species. With such an approach, we seek to evaluate the feasibility of using a combination of target species as a surrogate for assessing the status of the whole bird community. Our approach was spread over multiple spatial scales, to determine which was the most informative. We selected four species protected by European regulation and generated a presence-absence map from species distribution modelling. We, therefore, used the FRAGSTATS biodiversity metric to calculate Shannon index for the overlapped presence-absence maps, at two spatial scales (500 m and 1000 m). Then, the relationships with the whole community was assessed through generalised least square models, at the spatial scale of 4 ha, 9 ha and 25 ha. Results showed that the higher rate of variability of community was explained by the biodiversity indicator at 1000 m scale. Indeed, the more informative spatial scale for the whole bird community was 9 ha. In addition, a pattern emerged about the relationships between biodiversity indicator and community richness, that is worth of further research. Our study demonstrates that the usefulness of surrogate species for biodiversity and community assessment can become clear only at a certain spatial scales. Indeed, they can be highly predictive of the whole community, and highly informative for conservation planning. Moreover, their use can optimize biodiversity monitoring and conservation, focusing on a small number of noteworthy species.     

The importance of predation,substrate and spatial refugia in determining lotic insect distributions

An experiment was conducted to evaluate the interaction between predation, substrate, and spatial refugia in the organization of a stream insect community (Reeds Creek, Pendleton Co., West Virginia). Patterns of insect colonization were compared between fish exclusion cages and open controls that allowed access to vertebrate predators. Each cage contained 4 different substrates that varied in the relative amount of spatial refugia. Fish had little influence on the diversity or abundance of any insect taxa, even when spatial refugia were limited. The only significant effect due to predation, was an increased diversity of large (>8 mm) invertebrates in the absence of predators. However, because these taxa were relatively rare, the overall role of fish predation on insect community structure was minimal.In contrast, substrate had a marked effect on insect colonization. Insects were always more abundant (number/basket) on loose substrates containing large numbers of interstitial spaces, compared to cement-embedded substrates with few refuges available. In addition, invertebrates were more abundant on loose gravel compared to loose cobbles. Howver, when substrate preferencesrd were examined according to insect density (number/m²), loose cobbles were generally the preferred substrate. The present experiment rejects the hypothesis that patterns of substrate colonization can be explained as differential insect mortality by predators, due to varying amounts of refugia. Alternative mechanisms such as differing amounts of trapped detritus and substrate surface area may account for substrate preference.     

Plant species richness in Fennoscandia: evaluating the relative importance of climate and history

In Fennoscandia, the species richness of vascular plants in 75 × 75 km squares is highly correlated with geographical (latitude and longitude) and climatic variables (accumulated respiration sum, mean January temperature, and mean July temperature). When generalised additive models (GAM) are used, over 80% of the variation in richness can be statistically explained by geography and climate. Even though climate has such a high explanatory power we present several arguments for interpreting these results with care. Climate has no ecologically sound explanatory power when the variation due to latitude and longitude is accounted for, and the strongest latitudinal gradient in summer temperature is in an area where the latitudinal gradient in species richness is absent. We discuss the role that Holocene history might have on the variation in species richness, and argue that history and climate should be considered simultaneously when explaining the observed patterns in the geographical variation of species richness.     

The relative influence of habitat amount and configuration on genetic structure across multiple spatial scales

Despite strong interest in understanding how habitat spatial structure shapes the genetics of populations, the relative importance of habitat amount and configuration for patterns of genetic differentiation remains largely unexplored in empirical systems. In this study, we evaluate the relative influence of, and interactions among, the amount of habitat and aspects of its spatial configuration on genetic differentiation in the pitcher plant midge, Metriocnemus knabi. Larvae of this species are found exclusively within the water‐filled leaves of pitcher plants (Sarracenia purpurea) in a system that is naturally patchy at multiple spatial scales (i.e., leaf, plant, cluster, peatland). Using generalized linear mixed models and multimodel inference, we estimated effects of the amount of habitat, patch size, interpatch distance, and patch isolation, measured at different spatial scales, on genetic differentiation (F_ST) among larval samples from leaves within plants, plants within clusters, and clusters within peatlands. Among leaves and plants, genetic differentiation appears to be driven by female oviposition behaviors and is influenced by habitat isolation at a broad (peatland) scale. Among clusters, gene flow is spatially restricted and aspects of both the amount of habitat and configuration at the focal scale are important, as is their interaction. Our results suggest that both habitat amount and configuration can be important determinants of genetic structure and that their relative influence is scale dependent.     

The relative importance of deforestation,precipitation change,and temperature sensitivity in determining the future distributions and diversity of Amazonian plant species

Tropical forests are threatened by many human disturbances – two of the most important of which are deforestation and climate change. To mitigate the impacts of these disturbances, it is important to understand their potential effects on the distributions of species. In the tropics, such understanding has been hindered by poor knowledge of the current distributions and range limits of most species. Here, we use herbarium collection records to model the current and future distributions of ca. 3000 Amazonian plant species. We project these distributions into the future under a range of different scenarios related to the magnitude of climate change and extent of deforestation as well as the response of species to changes in temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ . We find that the future of Amazonian diversity will be dependant primarily on the ability of species to tolerate or adapt to rising temperatures. If the thermal niches of tropical plant species are fixed and incapable of expanding under rapid warming, then the negative effects of climate change will overshadow the effects of deforestation, greatly reducing the area of suitable habitat available to most species and potentially leading to massive losses of biodiversity throughout the Amazon. If tropical species are generally capable of tolerating warmer temperatures, rates of habitat loss will be greatly reduced but many parts of Amazonia may still experience rapid losses of diversity, with the effects of enhanced seasonal water stress being similar in magnitude to the effects of deforestation.     

Patterns of species density and productivity at different spatial scales in herbaceous plant communities

A major challenge in evaluating patterns of species richness and productivity involves acquiring data to examine these relationships empirically across a range of ecologically significant spatial scales. In this paper, we use data from herb‐dominated plant communities at six Long‐Term Ecological Research (LTER) sites to examine how the relationship between plant species density and above‐ground net primary productivity (ANPP) differs when the spatial scale of analysis is changed. We quantified this relationship at different spatial scales in which we varied the focus and extent of analysis: (1) among fields within communities, (2) among fields within biomes or biogeographic regions, and (3) among communities within biomes or biogeographic regions. We used species density (D=number of species per m²) as our measure of diversity to have a comparable index across all sites and scales. Although we expected unimodal relationships at all spatial scales, we found that spatial scale influenced the form of the relationship. At the scale of fields within different grassland communities, we detected a significant relationship at only one site (Minnesota old‐fields), and it was negative linear. When we expanded the extent of analyses to biogeographic regions (grasslands or North America), we found significant unimodal relationships in both cases. However, when we combined data to examine patterns among community types within different biogeographic regions (grassland, alpine tundra, arctic tundra, or North America), we did not detect significant relationships between species density and ANPP for any region. The results of our analyses demonstrate that the spatial scale of analysis – how data are aggregated and patterns examined – can influence the form of the relationship between species density and productivity. It also demonstrates the need for data sets from a broad spectrum of sites sampled over a range of scales for examining challenging and controversial ecological hypotheses.     

Intraspecific variation in group size in the blackbuck antelope: the roles of habitat structure and forage at different spatial scales

The main ecological factors that are hypothesized to explain the striking variation in the size of social groups among large herbivores are habitat structure, predation, and forage abundance and distribution; however, their relative roles in wild populations are not well understood. I combined analyses of ecological correlates of spatial variation in group size with analyses of individual behaviour in groups of different sizes to investigate factors maintaining variation in group size in an Indian antelope, the blackbuck Antilope cervicapra. I measured group size, habitat structure, forage, and the occurrence of predators in ten blackbuck populations, and, at a smaller spatial scale, within an intensively studied population. To examine the processes by which these ecological factors influence group size, I used behavioural observations and an experiment to estimate the shape of the relationship between group size and potential costs and benefits to individuals. Group size varied extensively both among and within populations. Analyses of spatial variation in group size suggested that both forage and habitat structure influence group size: large-scale, among-population variation in group size was primarily related to habitat structure, while small-scale, within-population variation was most closely related to forage abundance. Analyses of individual behaviour suggested that larger groups incur greater travel costs while foraging. However, individuals in larger groups appeared to experience greater benefits, namely the earlier detection of a “predator”, a reduction in vigilance, and an increase in the time spent feeding. Overall, these findings suggest that individuals in groups experience a trade-off between predation-related benefits and costs arising from feeding competition. Habitat structure and forage likely influence the nature of this trade-off; thus, variation in these ecological factors may maintain variation in group size. The role of predation pressure and other factors in explaining the remaining variation needs further exploration. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.