Elevation‐dependent responses of tree mast seeding to climate change over 45 years

We use seed count data from a New Zealand mono‐specific mountain beech forest to test for decadal trends in seed production along an elevation gradient in relation to changes in climate. Seedfall was collected (1965 to 2009) from seed trays located on transect lines at fixed elevations along an elevation gradient (1020 to 1370 m). We counted the number of seeds in the catch of each tray, for each year, and determined the number of viable seeds. Climate variables were obtained from a nearby (<2 km) climate station (914‐m elevation). Variables were the sum or mean of daily measurements, using periods within each year known to correlate with subsequent interannual variation in seed production. To determine trends in mean seed production, at each elevation, and climate variables, we used generalized least squares (GLS) regression. We demonstrate a trend of increasing total and viable seed production, particularly at higher elevations, which emerged from marked interannual variation. Significant changes in four seasonal climate variables had GLS regression coefficients consistent with predictions of increased seed production. These variables subsumed the effect of year in GLS regressions with a greater influence on seed production with increasing elevation. Regression models enforce a view that the sequence of climate variables was additive in their influence on seed production throughout a reproductive cycle spanning more than 2 years and including three summers. Models with the most support always included summer precipitation as the earliest variable in the sequence followed by summer maximum daily temperatures. We interpret this as reflecting precipitation driven increases in soil nutrient availability enhancing seed production at higher elevations rather than the direct effects of climate, stand development or rising atmospheric CO₂ partial pressures. Greater sensitivity of tree seeding at higher elevations to changes in climate reveals how ecosystem responses to climate change will be spatially variable.     

Masting,mixtures and modes: are two models better than one?

A key hypothesis in population ecology is that synchronous and intermittent seed production, known as mast seeding, is driven by the alternating allocation of carbohydrates and mineral nutrients between growth and reproduction in different years, i.e. ‘resource switching’. Such behaviour may ultimately generate bimodal distributions of long‐term flower and seed production, and evidence of these patterns has been taken to support the resource switching hypothesis. Here, we show how a widely‐used statistical test of bimodality applied by many studies in different ecological contexts may fail to reject the null hypothesis that focal probability distributions are unimodal. Using data from five tussock grass species in South Island, New Zealand, we find clear evidence of bimodality only when flowering patterns are analyzed with probabilistic mixture models. Mixture models provide a theory oriented framework for testing hypotheses of mast seeding patterns, enabling the different responses underlying medium‐ and high‐ versus non‐ and low‐flowering years to be modelled more realistically by associating these with distinct probability distributions. Coupling theoretical expectations with more rigorous statistical approaches will empower ecologists to reject null hypotheses more often.     

Annual variability in seed production by woody plants and the masting concept: reassessment of principles and relationship to pollination and seed dispersal

By analyzing 296 published and unpublished data sets describing annual variation in seed output by 144 species of woody plants, this article addresses the following questions. Do plant species naturally fall into distinct groups corresponding to masting and nonmasting habits? Do plant populations generally exhibit significant bimodality in annual seed output? Are there significant relationships between annual variability in seed production and pollination and seed dispersal modes, as predicted from economy of scale considerations? We failed to identify distinct groups of species with contrasting levels of annual variability in seed output but did find evidence that most polycarpic woody plants seem to adhere to alternating supra-annual schedules consisting of either high or low reproduction years. Seed production was weakly more variable among wind-pollinated taxa than animal-pollinated ones. Plants dispersed by mutualistic frugivores were less variable than those dispersed by either inanimate means or animals that predominantly behave as seed predators. We conclude that there are no objective reasons to perpetuate the concept of mast fruiting in the ecological literature as a shorthand to designate a distinct biological phenomenon. Associations between supra-annual variability in seed output and pollination and seed dispersal methods suggest the existence of important reproductive correlates that demand further investigation.     

Masting in a temperate tree: Evidence for environmental prediction?

Many plant species produce large fruit crops in some years and then produce few or no fruits in others. Synchronous, inter‐annual variation in plant reproduction is known as ‘masting’ and its adaptive significance has yet to be fully resolved. For 8 consecutive years, I quantified every fruit produced by 22 females of a New Zealand tree species (Dysoxylum spectabile), which has an unusual habit of taking a full calendar year to mature fruits after flowering. Fruit production varied strongly among years and was tightly synchronized among trees. Annual variability in fruit production declined with total reproductive output, indicating trees with lower fecundity exhibited a stronger tendency to mast. Although unrelated to temperature, annual fruit production was positively related to precipitation during annual periods of fruit development, and negatively related to fruit production in the previous year. Seedlings had higher rates of survivorship in a wet, high‐seed year than in a dry, low‐seed year, suggesting that seedlings might be drought sensitive. Therefore, D. spectabile produced large fruit crops during periods of high rainfall prior to fruit maturation, which may enhance survivorship of drought‐intolerant seeds. Results were inconsistent with several hypotheses that are widely believed to be the most likely explanations for masting. Instead, results were consistent with the environmental prediction hypothesis, suggesting that this hypothesis may be more important than previously appreciated.     

Quantitative methods for defining mast‐seeding years across species and studies

Abstract: Although there is a quantitative method that is commonly used for identifying mast‐seeding behaviour of a plant population based on the coefficient of variation (i.e. CV is standard deviation/mean>1), there is no general quantitative method for delineating “mast” as opposed to “non‐mast” years. Mast years are, however, described qualitatively as years when “large”, “unusually large” and “high” seed production occurs. The use of a consistent and generally applicable method for delineating mast years across species and plant populations is important for synthesizing knowledge of the causes and consequences of mast seeding, which could be confounded by using different methods among studies. We examine six quantitative methods for identifying mast years: four methods from the literature and two methods developed here. We use 36 seed production datasets covering a variety of species with ≥10 years of data to test the performance of these six methods. For each method, we quantify the percentage of the datasets to which the method could be successfully applied, the magnitude of the mast year relative to the mean, the frequency of mast years and the occurrence of consecutive mast years. The majority of the methods failed to meet the criteria for a suitable method. The best method used the number of standard deviates (standardized deviate method) of the annual mean seed production from the long‐term mean of the dataset to identify mast‐seeding years. General results from the standardized deviate method include that the occurrence of mast‐seeding years is largely unrelated to plant population CV, but similar across species and data collection methods.     

Predator satiation and extreme mast seeding in 11 species of Chionochloa (Poaceae)

Variation in annual flowering effort is described for 16 long datasets from 11 species of Chionochloa (Poaceae) in New Zealand. All populations exhibited extreme mast seeding. The most variable species was C. crassiuscula (coefficient of variation, CV=3.02) over 26 years at Takahe Valley, Fiordland, which is the highest published CV we know of worldwide. The other populations also had high CVs (lowest CV=1.42, mean CV=1.84) which were higher than for other well‐studied genera such as Picea, Pinus and Quercus. There were also frequent years of zero flowering (mean across all populations was 37.2% zero years; maximum 53% for C. rubra and C. crassiuscula over 19 years) whereas zero years are rare in other published masting datasets.Flowering was highly synchronous among species within a site (mean r=0.886), and also (though significantly less so) among sites. Among sites, synchrony was not significantly higher within‐species (mean r=0.711) than between‐species (r=0.690). Warm summer temperatures led to heavy flowering the following summer. Flowering synchrony increased with increasing synchrony in local deseasonalised summer temperatures, and decreased with increasing distance between sites.Mast seeding has been shown in Chionochloa to reduce losses to specialist flower or seed predators. Among‐species synchrony may be adaptive if species share a common seed predator. Developing seeds of at least 10 Chionochloa species are attacked by larvae of an undescribed cecidomyiid. In Takahe Valley, where masting is most pronounced, cecidomyiids attacked all six Chionochloa species in all four years studied. Mean annual losses were almost constant (10.0 to 13.4%) while flowering effort varied 100‐fold. The invariant losses are consistent with other evidence that the cecidomyiid may have extended diapause, which would make it harder to satiate by mast seeding. We hypothesise that one possible factor favouring such extremely high levels of mast seeding in Chionochloa is that its seed predator is very hard to satiate.     

Marten and fisher responses to fluctuations in prey populations and mast crops in the northern hardwood forest

Many forest tree species produce seed (mast) crops that are consumed by a variety of wildlife species and these pulsed resources may mediate interactions among predator and prey populations. In the northern hardwood forests of New York, we investigated interactions among mast production, prey abundance, and harvests of American martens (Martes americana) and fishers (Martes pennanti) during 1988–2009. Mast production for beech (Fagus grandifolia), sugar maple (Acer saccharum), and mountain ash (Sorbus americana) was synchronous and an alternate-year pattern in production was evident for most of the time series. We documented considerable temporal variation in summer small mammal relative abundance and our numerical response models received substantial support for 5 of the 8 species, indicating lagged responses to autumn mast crops. Trap response of martens to the autumn production of beech mast and mountain ash berries was immediate and numerical responses to the relative abundance of small mammal prey occurred during the preceding summer. The age structure of the marten harvest differed based on the dominant alternate-year pattern of summer prey relative abundance and autumn mast production (χ²₄ = 33.06, P < 0.001). The proportion of juvenile marten in the autumn harvest was 52% and 34% following summers when small mammal relative abundance was high and low, respectively and these differences resulted in a persistent cohort effect that was apparent until age 3.5. Trap response of fishers to the autumn production of beech mast was immediate and numerical responses to the relative abundance of Sciurid prey occurred during the preceding summer. Marten and fisher harvests fluctuated similarly among New York, Maine, and New Brunswick, which may indicate regional synchronization of mast crops and responses of martens and fishers to similar prey dynamics. A better understanding of how food availability influences demographic responses and trapping vulnerability of martens and fishers would aid our ability to manage harvests of these species on a sustained yield basis. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Seed production and outbreaks of non-cyclic rodent populations in deciduous forests

Summary In a 10-year study period, outbreaks of the bank vole, Clethrionomys glareolus, Schreber only occurred in years following huge seed production of European beech, Fagus sylvatica. Intensive winter reprodution preceded the outbreaks, in contrast to a normal breeding season from April through September. No winter reproduction occurred in nearby populations from habitats without mast production. During the winter, the average weight of C. glareolus remained high in the mast forests and the age structure resembled that of a summer breeding population. Despite excess energy requirements of winter breeding, survival rates were similar to that of non-breeding winter populations. In mast years, rodent consumption in the beech forest was estimated as 1.0–10.3% of endosperm production available to postdispersal seed predators. Between mast years rodent consumption made up 30–100% of endosperm production available. Mast years occurred at irregular intervals and seed production seems to be synchronized between individual trees over large areas and induced by climatic events. These phenomena lead to seed predator satiation.     

Seed survival on experimental dishes in a central European old‐growth mixed‐species forest – effects of predator guilds,tree masting and small mammal population dynamics

Predation of tree seeds can be a major factor structuring plant communities. We present a three year study on tree seed survival on experimental dishes in an old‐growth forest in central Europe in Austria. We addressed species specific, spatial and temporal aspects of post‐dispersal seed predation. Seeds of Norway spruce Picea abies, European beech Fagus sylvatica, and silver fir Abies alba were exposed on dishes in different types of exclosures which allowed access only to specific guilds of seed predators. Removal experiments were carried out in two old‐growth forests and a managed forest (macro‐sites), including micro‐sites with and without cover of ground vegetation. We conducted the experiment in three consecutive years with a mast year of beech and spruce before the first year of the study. The seed removal experiments were combined with live trapping of small mammals being potential seed predators. Our experiments showed a distinctly different impact of different predator guilds on seed survival on the dishes with highest removal rates of seeds from dishes accessible for small mammals. We observed differing preferences of small mammals for the different tree species. Seed survival in different macro‐ and micro‐habitats were highly variable with lower seed survival in old growth forests. In contrast to our assumption, and in contrast to the satiation hypothesis which assumes higher seed survival in and directly after mast years, seed survival was lower in the year following the mast year of beech when a population peak of small mammals occurred and higher in intermast periods when subsequently small mammal population crashed. This suggests a higher importance of sporadic masting shortly after mast years in intermast periods for establishment of forest trees provided that pollination efficiency is high enough in such years. Combined with the high seed mortality observed after the mast year, this corroborates the important role of seed predation for forest dynamics. An altered synchrony or asynchrony of masting of different tree species and changed masting frequencies through climate change may thus lead to strong and non‐linear effects on forest dynamics.     

Inter‐annual variability of fruit timing and quantity at Nouragues (French Guiana): insights from hierarchical Bayesian analyses

The timing and quantity of fruit production are major determinants of the functioning of a forest community, but simultaneous analyses of both are rare. We analyzed a ten‐year dataset (2001–2011) of fruit production for 45 tree and liana species from the Nouragues rain forest, French Guiana. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian approach to determine variation in the timing and quantity of fruit production. Our analysis accommodates missing censuses and quantifies variation at seasonal and inter‐annual scales. The fruiting peak of 22 of 45 species occurred during the peak of the rainy season, which is typical for central and eastern Amazon. The timing and quantity of fruit production varied substantially across years in most species, with greater variation in quantity than in timing. The timing of fruit production varied from continuously fruiting species to mast fruiting species that had two or more consecutive years without fruit production. Fully 40% of species were mast fruiting species. The seasonal timing and inter‐annual variation in fruiting were unrelated to seed dispersal mode across species. We saw no evidence for directional change in the level of fruit production, the timing of fruit production, or their variances; however, 10 yr is a short record for such analyses.     

Within-population spatial synchrony in mast seeding of North American oaks

Mast seeding, the synchronous production of large crops of seeds, has been frequently documented in oak species. In this study we used several North American oak data-sets to quantify within-stand (<10 km) synchrony in mast dynamics. Results indicated that intraspecific synchrony in seed production always exceeded interspecific synchrony and was essentially constant over distances ranging from 100 m to 10 km. Asynchrony between species was at least partially attributable to differences in the endogenous dynamics in seed production caused by the varying numbers of years (1 or 2) required to mature seeds. Similarly, the magnitude of intraspecific seed production synchrony was related to intraspecific variation in endogenous dynamics; this intraspecific variation could be caused by spatial variation in habitat conditions. These results indicate that both interspecific and intraspecific variation in the endogenous processes generating variability in seed production may influence the magnitude of spatial synchrony in total (all species) mast production. Such findings may be of significance to understanding interactions between synchrony in mast seeding and animal consumer populations.     

Growth allocation between height and stem diameter in nonsuppressed reproducing Abies mariesii trees

To understand the growth patterns with respect to competition and leaf‐mass increase in reproducing trees, growth allocation between height and stem diameter was examined for nonsuppressed reproducing Abies mariesii trees in a subalpine forest in northern Honshu, Japan. The growth allocation was analyzed by dividing the relative growth rate of the stem volume into the relative contributions of height and stem‐diameter growth. During a 9‐yr period, height growth and seed‐cone production showed obvious annual variation, while stem‐diameter growth recorded moderate variation. For two of three years of seed‐cone production during the 9‐yr period, trees with larger seed‐cone production were associated with less height growth in the following year of seed‐cone production; however, there was no trend of height growth in the year of seed‐cone production. In the following year of mast seeding, trees with larger stem‐volume growth were associated with less height growth. This trend was also shown for the relationship between the cumulative stem‐volume growth during the 9‐yr period and growth allocation to height, suggesting that trees with a larger biomass increase depress the allocation of photosynthate to competition with a large expenditure for reproduction. In contrast to this, trees with a smaller biomass increase might allocate photosynthate to competition with surrounding trees. The results of this study suggest that an increase in reproductive organs during life history and annual variation in reproduction are closely associated with the growth patterns of the stem in A. mariesii trees.     

A mast‐seeding desert shrub regulates population dynamics and behavior of its heteromyid dispersers

Granivorous rodent populations in deserts are primarily regulated through precipitation‐driven resource pulses rather than pulses associated with mast‐seeding, a pattern more common in mesic habitats. We studied heteromyid responses to mast‐seeding in the desert shrub blackbrush (Coleogyne ramosissima), a regionally dominant species in the Mojave–Great Basin Desert transition zone. In a 5‐year study at Arches National Park, Utah, USA, we quantified spatiotemporal variation in seed resources in mast and intermast years in blackbrush‐dominated and mixed desert vegetation and measured responses of Dipodomys ordii (Ord's kangaroo rat) and Perognathus flavescens (plains pocket mouse). In blackbrush‐dominated vegetation, blackbrush seeds comprised >79% of seed production in a mast year, but 0% in the first postmast year. Kangaroo rat abundance in blackbrush‐dominated vegetation was highest in the mast year, declined sharply at the end of the first postmast summer, and then remained at low levels for 3 years. Pocket mouse abundance was not as strongly associated with blackbrush seed production. In mixed desert vegetation, kangaroo rat abundance was higher and more uniform through time. Kangaroo rats excluded the smaller pocket mice from resource‐rich patches including a pipeline disturbance and also moved their home range centers closer to this disturbance in a year of low blackbrush seed production. Home range size for kangaroo rats was unrelated to seed resource density in the mast year, but resource‐poor home ranges were larger (P < 0.001) in the first postmast year, when resources were limiting. Blackbrush seeds are higher in protein and fat but lower in carbohydrates than the more highly preferred seeds of Indian ricegrass (Achnatherum hymenoides) and have similar energy value per unit of handling time. Kangaroo rats cached seeds of these two species in similar spatial configurations, implying that they were equally valued as stored food resources. Blackbrush mast is a key resource regulating populations of kangaroo rats in this ecosystem.     

A five-year study of mast seeding inPinus densiflora

I examined the annual pattern of seed production in three Korean populations ofPinus densiflora from 1998 to 2002. During the fall season, data were collected on the numbers of cones per tagged tree, as well as seed counts, their mass, and seed set following dehiscence. Dbh was measured for individual trees during each spring. Overall, 80.3% of the trees produced seed cones in even-numbered years compared with 51.6% in odd-numbered years. Moreover, trees that matured seed cones in even years produced 12 times more seeds per tree than those in odd years. Tree diameters generally increased significantly during the summers after odd-numbered years, although the trees at one site showed a consistent growth rate each year after 2000. Annual variations in individual seed mass, seed set, and the proportion of damaged seed cones occurred largely within odd or even years. Based on these results, the following conclusions were made: 1) seed-cone production ofP. densiflora is somewhat synchronized, but is not an all-or-nothing phenomenon, 2)P. densiflora tends to undergo mast seeding at two-year intervals, and 3) this alternate-year excess in seed crop may have evolved to increase fitness, though the exact evolutionary mechanism is unclear.     

Intra- and inter-specific effects of mast seeding on seed fates of two sympatric <Emphasis Type="Italic">Corylus</Emphasis> species

We released seeds of two sympatric tree species, Corylus mandshurica (seed with thinner seed hull, higher nutrition) and C. heterophylla (seeds with thicker seed hull, lower nutrition) in the masting year of C. mandshurica in 2008, and C. heterophylla in 2009, respectively, to investigate how seed masting of the two sympatric Corylus species affects seed removal and dispersal fitness of the two species differently at both intra- and inter-specific levels. At intra-specific level, the authors found mast seeding of both C. mandshurica and C. heterophylla significantly reduced seed removal, seed consumption, but increased seed dispersal distance and seed dispersal fitness of the released seeds. Mast seeding of C. mandshurica increased seed caching of C. mandshurica. At inter-specific level, the authors found mast seeding of C. mandshurica reduced seed removal of C. heterophylla, but mast seeding of C. heterophylla did not significantly reduce seed removal of C. mandshurica. Mast seeding of C. mandshurica reduced seed consumption of C. heterophylla, while mast seeding of C. heterophylla reduced seed consumption of C. mandshurica. We found mast seeding of C. mandshurica significantly reduced seed dispersal distance of C. heterophylla, while mast seeding of C. heterophylla significantly increased seed dispersal distance of C. mandshurica. We found that mast seeding of C. mandshurica significantly increased seed dispersal fitness of C. heterophylla, while mast seeding of C. heterophylla did not significantly increase seed dispersal fitness of C. mandshurica. More studies are needed to reveal the ecological consequences of mast seeding at inter-specific or community-level. Seed traits may attribute the differences of mast seeding at inter-specific level. Because seeds with thinner seed hull and higher nutrition were more harvested and eaten by rodents, mast seeding of C. mandshurica might have reduced seed removal and seed consumption, but increased dispersal fitness of C. heterophylla (seeds with thicker seed hull, lower nutrition). Therefore, synchrony among species is, or is not, selectively beneficial to the focus species depends on seed traits which determine gains from mast seeding at inter-specific level.     

Seed removal in two coexisting oak species: ecological consequences of seed size, plant cover and seed-drop timing

Seed predation and dispersal can critically influence plant community structure and dynamics. Inter‐specific differences arising at these early stages play a crucial role on tree recruitment patterns, which in turn could influence forest dynamics and species segregation in heterogeneous environments such as Mediterranean forests. We investigated removal rates from acorns set onto the ground in two coexisting Mediterranean oak species –Quercus canariensis and Q. suber– in southern Spain. We developed maximum likelihood estimators to investigate the main factors controlling probabilities of seed removal and to describe species‐specific functional responses. To account for inter‐specific differences in seed‐drop timing, two experiments were established: a simultaneous exposure of acorns of the two species (synchronous experiments) and a seed exposure following their natural seed‐drop phenology (diachronic experiments). A total of 1536 acorns were experimentally distributed along a wide and natural gradient of plant cover, and removal was periodically monitored for three months at two consecutive years (with contrasting differences in seed production and thus seed availability on the ground). The probability of seed removal increased with plant cover (leaf area index, LAI) for the two oak species. Inter‐specific differences in acorn removal were higher in open areas and disappeared in closed microhabitats, especially during a non‐mast year. Despite later seed‐drop, Q. suber acorns were removed faster and at a higher proportion than those of Q. canariensis. The higher probability of seed removal for this species could be attributed to its larger seed size compared to Q. canariensis, as inter‐specific differences were less pronounced when similar sized acorns were exposed. Inter‐specific differences in seed removal, arising from seed size variability and microsite heterogeneity, could be of paramount importance in oak species niche separation, driving stand dynamics and composition along environmental gradients.     

Is energy supply the trigger for reproductive activity in male edible dormice (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Glis glis</Emphasis>)?

In edible dormice (Glis glis) reproduction is synchronised with the intermittent masting of the European beech (Fagus sylvatica). In years of mast failure dormouse males seem to anticipate future low food availability and fail to develop functional testes. We hypothesised that the availability of high-quality food is linked to male reproductive capacity, because of high male energetic demands during gonad maturation. We therefore evaluated the relationship between beech seed production and male reproductivity in the field between 1993 and 2005. In order to know whether the energy content of the food as such triggers sexual capacity, we supplemented high-quality food in the field for 3 years and investigated reproductive output, reproductive capacity, and body mass changes. Results revealed that male reproductive capacity was positively linked with beech seed production. Body mass changes of reference males during the high reproductive year further revealed high energetic demands of male reproduction, which were counter balanced in food-supplemented males. However, in contrast to our assumptions, artificial food supply during a year of mast failure failed to evoke high reproductivity in edible dormice. The availability of high-quality food can therefore be ruled out from being the primary trigger for sexual activity in male edible dormice.     

Sensitivity to Seed Germination Schedule by Scatter‐Hoarding Pére David's Rock Squirrels During Mast and Non‐Mast Years

Mast seeding by oaks (Quercus) and other seed species has fundamental impacts on the behavior of individual scatter‐hoarding animals as well as their population and community dynamics. Scatter‐hoarding squirrels are highly sensitive to acorn germination schedule and stop germination by removing the embryo of non‐dormant acorns to prevent losses of energy and nutrients by rapid germination. However, we know little about how this behavior is affected by mast seeding. We investigated foraging decisions made by free‐ranging Pére David's rock squirrel (Sciurotamias davidianus) with three species that produce non‐dormant seeds and two species that produce dormant seeds (Fagaceae) during mast and non‐mast years in Central China from 2007–2010. Consistent with the food perishability hypothesis that squirrels make decisions to minimize the perishability of their caches, non‐dormant seeds were hoarded at a lower rate, but had a higher probability of embryo removal than dormant seeds. Compared with non‐mast years, a lower proportion of seeds were harvested during mast years, but a higher proportion of the harvested seeds were hoarded. In addition, the probability of embryo removal in the hoarded seeds was higher during mast years. Squirrels also dispersed seeds at shorter distances during mast years. Moreover, the interactions between mast seeding and seed germination schedule had significant effects on squirrel foraging decisions, including embryo removal. This study is the first to demonstrate that squirrels show greater sensitivity to seed germination potential when seeds are abundant.     

Predicting the incidence of mohua predation from the seedfall,mouse, and predator fluctuations in beech forests

Abstract

Predator control will be required to save many mohua (Mohoua ochrocephala) populations from extinction. However, control may be required only in years when stoat (Mustela erminea) densities are high. To manage local stoat populations effectively, a reliable predictor of high risk years is required. We examined whether different levels of beech seedfall and mouse capture rates were related to the levels of mohua predation recorded in the Hawdon Valley, Arthur's Pass National Park, and the Eglinton Valley, Fiordland National Park, between 1989 and 1994. During this period there was only one full beech mast year in each study area during autumn. The full mast seedfall in Hawdon Valley was predominantly of mountain beech (Nothofagus solandri var. cliffortioides) and red beech (N. fused), and in Eglinton Valley it was predominantly silver beech (TV. menziesii). During the following summer, mouse and stoat densities, and the predation rate of adult mohua, all increased considerably. There was very little predation on adult mohua in the summers following poor seedfalls when mouse and predator densities remained low. In 1993, a partial mast did not trigger a mouse or stoat irruption.

We conclude that counts of beech seedfall and indices of mouse density are potential predictors of an impending irruption of key predators. Winter mouse density appeared to be the most reliable indicator, because neither stoats nor mice respond to seedfall alone. A combination of these indicators could be used as a basis for management decisions on whether to undertake stoat control to protect mohua populations in the future. However, more information is required on the seedfall thresholds that may trigger sufficient increases in mouse and stoat numbers and, consequently, bird predation.     

Reproductive collapse in European beech results from declining pollination efficiency in large trees

Climate warming increases tree mortality which will require sufficient reproduction to ensure population viability. However, the response of tree reproduction to climate change remains poorly understood. Warming can reduce synchrony and interannual variability of seed production (“masting breakdown”) which can increase seed predation and decrease pollination efficiency in trees. Here, using 40 years of observations of individual seed production in European beech (Fagus sylvatica), we showed that masting breakdown results in declining viable seed production over time, in contrast to the positive trend apparent in raw seed count data. Furthermore, tree size modulates the consequences of masting breakdown on viable seed production. While seed predation increased over time mainly in small trees, pollination efficiency disproportionately decreased in larger individuals. Consequently, fecundity declined over time across all size classes, but the overall effect was greatest in large trees. Our study showed that a fundamental biological relationship—correlation between tree size and viable seed production—has been reversed as the climate has warmed. That reversal has diverse consequences for forest dynamics; including for stand- and biogeographical-level dynamics of forest regeneration. The tree size effects suggest management options to increase forest resilience under changing climates.