Evaluation of relative density indices for sika deer in eastern Hokkaido, Japan

We evaluated relative density indices of sika deer (Cervus nippon) to aid in population management. We monitored sika deer population trends from 1992 to 2002 in the eastern part of Hokkaido Island, northern Japan, using spotlight surveys, aerial surveys, catch per unit effort (CPUE), sighting per unit effort (SPUE), and cost of damage to agriculture and forestry. We assumed that the artificial bias in the spotlight index would be lower than in other indices, and compared temporal patterns of other indices to those produced using spotlight surveys using model II regression. There was a significant correlation between the damage cost index and the spotlight index, and both indices indicated consistent population trends. Managers used CPUE as a tool to determine hunting quota efficiency. The SPUE index had the smallest standard error among the indices, and the spotlight survey index had the second smallest standard error. Overall, the spotlight survey was the most useful index because its estimate error was small and it was precise in showing population trends; however, spotlight surveys did lead to underestimation once in 1994. The SPUE index seems to be effective in checking the validity of the spotlight index, but there are so many environmental and demographic uncertainties that several independent indices should be used and crosschecked for accurate evaluation of population trends.     

Individual differences, density dependence and offspring birth traits in a population of red deer

Variation between individuals is an essential component of natural selection and evolutionary change, but it is only recently that the consequences of persistent differences between individuals on population dynamics have been considered. In particular, few authors have addressed whether interactions exist between individual quality and environmental variation. In part, this is due to the difficulties of collecting sufficient data, but also the challenge of defining individual quality. Using a long-established study population of red deer, Cervus elaphus, inhabiting the North Block of the Isle of Rum, and three quality measures, this paper investigates how differences in maternal quality affect variation in birth body mass and date, as population density varies, and how this differs depending on the sex of the offspring and the maternal quality measure used. Significant interactions between maternal quality, measured as a hind's total contribution to population growth, and population density are reported for birth mass, but only for male calves. Analyses using dominance or age at primiparity to define maternal quality showed no significant interactions with population density, highlighting the difficulties of defining a consistent measure of individual quality.     

Tests for density dependence

Several statistical tests for density dependence have been proposed in the literature, and so in any practical case the question poses itself which one of these tests to choose. This paper offers a few remarks additional to those made by Fox and Ridsill-Smith (1995) and others. Parametric statistical tested are based on a fully specified mathematical model. Examples of such tests are Bulmer's (1975) first test, and the test of Dennis and Taper (1994). Distribution-free tests are based on far less stringent assumptions. An example of such a test is the one proposed by Pollard et al. (1987). The choice between parametric tests can best be made by considering which one of the underlying mathematical models ist most plausible. If all models are almost equally plausible, considerations of computational requirement and ease of application may be important. Strong doubts concerning the plausibility of mathematical models may lead one to prefer a distribution-free test. An important feature of any test is its power, i.e. the probability of its rejecting the null hypothesis when this hypothesis is not true. Other things being equal, tests are preferable when they have superior powers. But power of a test depends on the true state of nature, and the only way to study power quantitatively is by assuming some mathematical model as approximately representing this true state. As any mathematical model can at best only be an approximation to the situation in nature, a mathematical model and the statistical tests based on it should be robust against small deviations from model assumptions. Solow (1990) showed that Bulmer's test is not robust with respect to the assumption that the residuals in the underlying autoregression model be stochastically independent. Contrary to what was suggested by Fox and Ridsill-Smith (1995), who misinterpreted some statements in Reddingius (1990), the present author thinks this is a serious shortcoming of this test since an ecologist cannot assume a priori that important density-independent ecological factors are not somehow serially correlated. Moreover, he is rather sceptical about the usefulness of statistical tests for density dependence. They have contributed more to misunderstandings than to a significant increase in ecological insight. In any case, statistical tests are designed to test hypotheses that are stated before data are collected, and the question which test to use also has to be answered before the data have been collected. Designing and using statistical tests a posteriori to detect things in data mainly leads to confusion and controversy.     

Quantifying density dependence in a bird population using human disturbance

Although density dependence has long been recognised as vital to population regulation, there have been relatively few studies demonstrating it spatially in wildlife populations, often due to the confounding effects of variation in habitat quality. We report on a study of woodlarks Lullula arborea, a species of European conservation concern, breeding on lowland heath in Dorset, England. We take the novel approach of utilising the birds’ response to human disturbance, which resulted in much of the variation in density but had no direct impact on demographic rates. Within years, in sites with greater density there were smaller mean chick masses, lower post-fledging survival, and higher rates of nestling mortality attributed to starvation. The effects on clutch size and fledging success were confounded by the area of grassland within a site. There was no effect on brood size. Density dependence also operated within sites between years: as density increased there were reductions in mean chick mass and post-fledging survival, while nestling mortality attributed to starvation increased. Density-dependent effects on clutch size were only weakly regulatory, whereas density-dependent starvation and post-fledging mortality rates contributed strongly to differences in overall breeding output. Heavier chicks (when 7 days old) were significantly more likely to fledge and less likely to starve. Broods with heavier chicks were more likely to supply recruits to the breeding population. Nestling mass was not a factor in survival in the immediate post-fledging period, suggesting that density-dependent processes act independently on this stage. We conclude that the number of birds per hectare of suitable habitat is a valid means of expressing density, and that habitat acts as a surrogate for food abundance through which density dependence operates on the woodlark population.     

Tests for density dependence revisited

We have examined a number of statistical issues associated with methods for evaluating different tests of density dependence. The lack of definitive standards and benchmarks for conducting simulation studies makes it difficult to assess the performance of various tests. The biological researcher has a bewildering choice of statistical tests for testing density dependence and the list is growing. The most recent additions have been based on computationally intensive methods such as permutation tests and boot-strapping. We believe the computational effort and time involved will preclude their widespread adoption until: (1) these methods have been fully explored under a wide range of conditions and shown to be demonstrably superior than other, simpler methods, and (2) general purpose software is made available for performing the calculations. We have advocated the use of Bulmer's (first) test as a de facto standard for comparative studies on the grounds of its simplicity, applicability, and satisfactory performance under a variety of conditions. We show that, in terms of power, Bulmer's test is robust to certain departures from normality although, as noted by other authors, it is affected by temporal trends in the data. We are not convinced that the reported differences in power between Bulmer's test and the randomisation test of Pollard et al. (1987) justifies the adoption of the latter. Nor do we believe a compelling case has been established for the parametric bootstrap likelihood ratio test of Dennis and Taper (1994). Bulmer's test is essentially a test of the serial correlation in the (log) abundance data and is affected by the presence of autocorrelated errors. In such cases the test cannot distinguish between the autoregressive effect in the errors and a true density dependent effect in the time series data. We suspect other tests may be similarly affected, although this is an area for further research. We have also noted that in the presence of autocorrelation, the type I error rates can be substantially different from the assumed level of significance, implying that in such cases the test is based on a faulty significance region. We have indicated both qualitatively and quantitatively how autoregressive error terms can affect the power of Bulmer's test, although we suggest that more work is required in this area. These apparent inadequacies of Bulmer's test should not be interpreted as a failure of the statistical procedure since the test was not intended to be used with autocorrelated error terms.     

The effect of food quality and relative abundance on food choice in fallow deer

The diet choice of large herbivores is influenced by the presence of nutrients and toxins in available plants. It is generally assumed that herbivores ingest food that contains higher amounts of nutrients and lower amounts of toxins than the average of the food available. We studied the effects of quality and relative abundance on food choice in fallow deer,Dama dama . Preferences for and aversions against different compounds were first examined in two-choice tests with food and water. We then did cafeteria (multiple-choice) tests with hydrolysable tannin and sucrose added to food to investigate the influence of the frequency of occurrence. We found that food choice was biased towards lower tannin content. Consumption with respect to tannin content was relative rather than absolute, however, in that the intake of a given concentration depended on which other concentrations were present. In addition, the relative preference for low-tannin food was weaker in the cafeteria test, where this food had a smaller frequency of occurrence, indicating that frequency of occurrence influences food choice. We discuss these results from the perspective of optimal foraging theory and suggest that a changing and complex distribution of food types in nature may make it advantageous for large herbivores to show intermediate selectivity, rather than attempting to ingest only the highest quality food possible. Copyright 2002 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.     

Wealth as a source of density dependence in human population growth

In modern industrialized countries, human birth rates have been declining persistently for decades. In many cases they have now fallen below the replacement threshold. However, unlike in natural populations where population growth is constrained by limited resources, birth rates in modern industrialized countries are negatively correlated with resource availability. Here, declining birth rates in human populations are shown to be a manifestation of density‐dependent population growth brought on by socioeconomic development. This is demonstrated by combining empirical power law relations between population size, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and fertility in a simple theoretical model describing population dynamics in developed countries. For a closed population, the model exhibits growth to a globally stable equilibrium population size, for both national and city populations. A version of the model that is open with respect to immigration and the influence of foreign technology and capital exhibits a good fit to long‐term time series data on population size, GDP per capita, and birth rates for the United States, France and Japan.     

Estimating density dependence from population time series using demographic theory and life-history data

For populations with a density-dependent life history reproducing at discrete annual intervals, we analyze small or moderate fluctuations in population size around a stable equilibrium, which is applicable to many vertebrate populations. Using a life history having age at maturity alpha, with stochasticity and density dependence in adult recruitment and mortality, we derive a linearized autoregressive equation with time lags from 1 to alpha yr. Contrary to current interpretations, the coefficients corresponding to different time lags in the autoregressive dynamics are not simply measures of delayed density dependence but also depend on life-history parameters. The theory indicates that the total density dependence in a life history, D, should be defined as the negative elasticity of population growth rate per generation with respect to change in population size, [Formula: see text], where lambda is the asymptotic multiplicative growth rate per year, T is the generation time, and N is adult population size. The total density dependence in the life history, D, can be estimated from the sum of the autoregression coefficients. We estimate D in populations of seven vertebrate species for which life-history studies and unusually long time series of complete population censuses are available. Estimates of D were statistically significant and large, on the order of 1 or higher, indicating strong density dependence in five of the seven species. We also show that life history can explain the qualitative features of population autocorrelation functions and power spectra and observations of increasing empirical variance in population size with increasing length of time series.     

A technique for analysis of density dependence in population models

The concept of density-dependent population growth is fundamental to our understanding of how populations persist. While it is generally agreed that negative density dependence must occur at high densities, the direction of density dependence may be negative (pure negative density dependence) or positive (demographic Allee effect) at low densities. In this article, we present a technique to link the direction of density dependence to generic ecological factors. This technique involves exploiting the presence of a particular bifurcation, known as a saddle-node-transcritical interaction. We first provide a method to detect this bifurcation in a given model and then demonstrate its ecological relevance using several existing mechanistic models. With a mathematical framework in place, we are able to identify scenarios in which neither a weak Allee effect nor pure negative density dependence are possible. More generally, we find conditions on parameter values that are necessary for transitions between pure negative density dependence and demographic Allee effects to occur.     

Restricted dispersal reduces the strength of spatial density dependence in a tropical bird population

Spatial processes could play an important role in density-dependent population regulation because the disproportionate use of poor quality habitats as population size increases is widespread in animal populations-the so-called buffer effect. While the buffer effect patterns and their demographic consequences have been described in a number of wild populations, much less is known about how dispersal affects distribution patterns and ultimately density dependence. Here, we investigated the role of dispersal in spatial density dependence using an extraordinarily detailed dataset from a reintroduced Mauritius kestrel (Falco punctatus) population with a territorial (despotic) breeding system. We show that recruitment rates varied significantly between territories, and that territory occupancy was related to its recruitment rate, both of which are consistent with the buffer effect theory. However, we also show that restricted dispersal affects the patterns of territory occupancy with the territories close to release sites being occupied sooner and for longer as the population has grown than the territories further away. As a result of these dispersal patterns, the strength of spatial density dependence is significantly reduced. We conclude that restricted dispersal can modify spatial density dependence in the wild, which has implications for the way population dynamics are likely to be impacted by environmental change.     

Plant defense and density dependence in the population growth of herbivores

Long-standing theory has predicted that plant defensive and nutritional traits contribute to the population dynamics of insect herbivores. To examine the role of plant variation in density dependence, I took a comparative approach by conducting density manipulation experiments with the specialist aphid, Aphis nerii, on 18 species of milkweed (Asclepias spp.). The strength of density dependence varied on the plant species. Variation in plant secondary compounds (cardenolides), trichomes, leaf carbon and nitrogen concentrations, and seed mass of the milkweed species predicted the R(max) of aphid populations, while specific leaf weight, carbon concentration, latex, water content, and trichome density were significant predictors of the strength of density dependence. Thus, plant traits that probably evolved for primary and defensive functions contribute to the ecological dynamics of herbivore populations.     

Cycles, stochasticity and density dependence in pink salmon population dynamics

Complex dynamics of animal populations often involve deterministic and stochastic components. A fascinating example is the variation in magnitude of 2-year cycles in abundances of pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) stocks along the North Pacific rim. Pink salmon have a 2-year anadromous and semelparous life cycle, resulting in odd- and even-year lineages that occupy the same habitats but are reproductively isolated in time. One lineage is often much more abundant than the other in a given river, and there are phase switches in dominance between odd- and even-year lines. In some regions, the weak line is absent and in others both lines are abundant. Our analysis of 33 stocks indicates that these patterns probably result from stochastic perturbations of damped oscillations owing to density-dependent mortality caused by interactions between lineages. Possible mechanisms are cannibalism, disease transmission, food depletion and habitat degradation by which one lineage affects the other, although no mechanism has been well-studied. Our results provide comprehensive empirical estimates of lagged density-dependent mortality in salmon populations and suggest that a combination of stochasticity and density dependence drives cyclical dynamics of pink salmon stocks.     

On the dependence of speciation rates on species abundance and characteristic population size

The question of the potential importance for speciation of large/small population sizes remains open. We compare speciation rates in twelve major taxonomic groups that differ by twenty orders of magnitude in characteristic species abundance (global population number). It is observed that the twenty orders of magnitude’s difference in species abundances scales to less than two orders of magnitude’s difference in speciation rates. As far as species abundance largely determines the rate of generation of intraspecific endogenous genetic variation, the result obtained suggests that the latter rate is not a limiting factor for speciation. Furthermore, the observed approximate constancy of speciation rates in different taxa cannot be accounted for by assuming a neutral or nearly neutral molecular clock in subdivided populations. Neutral fixation is only relevant in sufficiently small populations with 4N _ev < 1, which appears an unrealistic condition for many taxa of the smaller organisms. Further research is clearly needed to reveal the mechanisms that could equate the evolutionary pace in taxa with dramatically different population sizes     

Exposure time of oral rabies vaccine baits relative to baiting density and raccoon population density

Oral rabies vaccination (ORV) baiting programs for control of raccoon (Procyon lotor) rabies in the USA have been conducted or are in progress in eight states east of the Mississippi River. However, data specific to the relationship between raccoon population density and the minimum density of baits necessary to significantly elevate rabies immunity are few. We used the 22-km2 US National Aeronautics and Space Administration Plum Brook Station (PBS) in Erie County, Ohio, USA, to evaluate the period of exposure for placebo vaccine baits placed at a density of 75 baits/km2 relative to raccoon population density. Our objectives were to 1) estimate raccoon population density within the fragmented forest, old-field, and industrial landscape at PBS: and 2) quantify the time that placebo, Merial RABORAL V-RG vaccine baits were available to raccoons. From August through November 2002 we surveyed raccoon use of PBS along 19.3 km of paved-road transects by using a forward-looking infrared camera mounted inside a vehicle. We used Distance 3.5 software to calculate a probability of detection function by which we estimated raccoon population density from transect data. Estimated population density on PBS decreased from August (33.4 raccoons/km2) through November (13.6 raccoons/km2), yielding a monthly mean of 24.5 raccoons/km2. We also quantified exposure time for ORV baits placed by hand on five 1-km2 grids on PBS from September through October. An average 82.7% (SD = 4.6) of baits were removed within 1 wk of placement. Given raccoon population density, estimates of bait removal and sachet condition, and assuming 22.9% nontarget take, the baiting density of 75/ km2 yielded an average of 3.3 baits consumed per raccoon and the sachet perforated.     

Roe deer population structure in a highly fragmented landscape

Northern Belgium (Flanders) is one of the most densely populated and urbanized regions in Europe. Many species are therefore likely to suffer from anthropogenic pressure and habitat destruction and fragmentation. Although many large mammals are recolonizing in parts of Europe, including Belgium, due to adaptation, a relaxation of persecution and habitat restoration, we have little actual data concerning the effects of landscape features on their population structure. We analysed the genetic structure of discrete roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) populations in the Eastern part of Flanders, with special emphasis on the impact of habitat fragmentation and anthropogenic barriers. The sampled populations were clearly genetically differentiated. Genetic structure could be explained by purely distance-based landscape modelling, but a simpler model focusing solely on barrier effects of large transportation infrastructure explained nearly as much genetic variance. In contrast, analyses based on least-cost landscape modelling failed to yield a significant effect. Overall, the results suggest considerable landscape-level effects of transportation infrastructure.