Global‐change drivers of ecosystem functioning modulated by natural variability and saturating responses

Humans are altering global environment at an unprecedented rate through changes in biodiversity, climate, nitrogen cycle, and land use. To address their effects on ecosystem functioning, experiments most frequently explore one driver at a time and control as many confounding factors as possible. Yet, which driver exerts the largest influence on ecosystem functioning and whether their relative importance changes among systems remain unclear. We analyzed experiments in the Patagonian steppe that evaluated the aboveground net primary production (ANPP) response to manipulated gradients of species richness, precipitation, temperature, nitrogen fertilization (N), and grazing intensity. We compared the effect on ANPP relative to ambient conditions considering intensity and direction of manipulations for each driver. The ranking of responses to drivers with comparable manipulation intensity was as follows: biodiversity>grazing>precipitation>N. For a similar intensity of manipulation, the effect of biodiversity loss was 4.0, 3.6, and 1.5, times larger than N deposition, decreased precipitation, and increased grazing intensity. We interpreted our results considering two hypotheses. First, the response of ANPP to changes in precipitation and biodiversity is saturating, so we expected larger effects when the driver was reduced, relative to ambient conditions, than when it was increased. Experimental manipulations that reduced ambient levels had larger effects than those that increased them. Second, the sensitivity of ANPP to each driver is inversely related to the natural variability of the driver. In Patagonia, the ranking of natural variability of drivers is as follows: precipitation>grazing>temperature>biodiversity>N. So, in general, the ecosystem was most sensitive to drivers that varied the least. Comparable results from Cedar Creek (MN) support both hypotheses and suggest that sensitivity to drivers varies among ecosystem types. Given the importance of understanding ecosystem sensitivity to predict global‐change impacts, it is necessary to design new experiments located in regions with contrasting natural variability and that include the full range of drivers.     

Environmental drivers interactively affect individual tree growth across temperate European forests

Forecasting the growth of tree species to future environmental changes requires a better understanding of its determinants. Tree growth is known to respond to global‐change drivers such as climate change or atmospheric deposition, as well as to local land‐use drivers such as forest management. Yet, large geographical scale studies examining interactive growth responses to multiple global‐change drivers are relatively scarce and rarely consider management effects. Here, we assessed the interactive effects of three global‐change drivers (temperature, precipitation and nitrogen deposition) on individual tree growth of three study species (Quercus robur/petraea, Fagus sylvatica and Fraxinus excelsior). We sampled trees along spatial environmental gradients across Europe and accounted for the effects of management for Quercus. We collected increment cores from 267 trees distributed over 151 plots in 19 forest regions and characterized their neighbouring environment to take into account potentially confounding factors such as tree size, competition, soil conditions and elevation. We demonstrate that growth responds interactively to global‐change drivers, with species‐specific sensitivities to the combined factors. Simultaneously high levels of precipitation and deposition benefited Fraxinus, but negatively affected Quercus’ growth, highlighting species‐specific interactive tree growth responses to combined drivers. For Fagus, a stronger growth response to higher temperatures was found when precipitation was also higher, illustrating the potential negative effects of drought stress under warming for this species. Furthermore, we show that past forest management can modulate the effects of changing temperatures on Quercus’ growth; individuals in plots with a coppicing history showed stronger growth responses to higher temperatures. Overall, our findings highlight how tree growth can be interactively determined by global‐change drivers, and how these growth responses might be modulated by past forest management. By showing future growth changes for scenarios of environmental change, we stress the importance of considering multiple drivers, including past management and their interactions, when predicting tree growth.     

Context‐dependent interactions between adult shrubs and seedlings in a semi‐arid shrubland

Abstract. Question: In semi‐arid systems, rainfall gradients can cause plant‐plant interactions to shift from negative to positive or vice versa. However, the importance of a second major abiotic factor, soil nutrients, has rarely been considered. We consider different combinations of both factors and ask: do net adult‐seedling interactions become less competitive and more facilitative with increasing overall abiotic harshness? Location: Succulent Karoo, Western Cape, South Africa. Methods: We examined the interactions between seedlings and adult shrubs at two sites. Sites differ in rainfall, and each contain two habitats: Nutrient‐rich mounds associated with underground termitaria and a relatively nutrient‐poor matrix. We carried out a spatial pattern analysis of community‐wide seedling‐adult associations. We then conducted field and greenhouse experiments to test the effects of soil and the presence of neighbouring shrubs on the growth and survival of six seedling species. Results: At the higher rainfall site, both competitive and facilitative effects of adults on seedlings were found but did not differ by habitat, despite the more benign conditions in the mound habitat. At the lower rainfall site, adult shrubs generally had neutral effects on seedlings in the matrix habitat. In the nutrient‐rich mound habitat, however, adult shrubs had strong and consistently competitive effects on seedlings. Conclusion: Seedling‐adult interactions could not be predicted by a simple overall gradient of abiotic harshness, demonstrating the need for more complex, mechanistic models to predict plant‐plant interactions. We suggest that rainfall and soil nutrients affect seedling‐adult relations through their interactive effects on the life‐history attributes of the species involved.     

Influence of multiple global change drivers on terrestrial carbon storage: additive effects are common

The interactive effects of multiple global change drivers on terrestrial carbon (C) storage remain poorly understood. Here, we synthesise data from 633 published studies to show how the interactive effects of multiple drivers are generally additive (i.e. not differing from the sum of their individual effects) rather than synergistic or antagonistic. We further show that (1) elevated CO₂, warming, N addition, P addition and increased rainfall, all exerted positive individual effects on plant C pools at both single‐plant and plant‐community levels; (2) plant C pool responses to individual or combined effects of multiple drivers are seldom scale‐dependent (i.e. not differing from single‐plant to plant‐community levels) and (3) soil and microbial biomass C pools are significantly less sensitive than plant C pools to individual or combined effects. We provide a quantitative basis for integrating additive effects of multiple global change drivers into future assessments of the C storage ability of terrestrial ecosystems.     

Growth of Slender Banksia from seedling planting,with and without fertiliser

Slender Banksia (Banksia attenuata) is a primary component of declining Banksia woodlands around Perth, south‐western Australia. It is important that its re‐establishment be promoted, but there are little data on its growth rates and response to applied nutrients. To quantify longer‐term growth rate, I periodically measured heights of Slender Banksia planted mid‐2005 over 7½ years. Without fertiliser, these seedlings grew slowly to about 1½ m. In mid‐2009, I planted Slender Banksia on the same site, with and without fertiliser tablets, and evaluated survival, growth and root development over 1½ years. First‐summer Slender Banksia seedling survival of around 30% was not unusual for this species. Low‐phosphorus native plant fertiliser tablets increased growth significantly.     

Interannual variation in precipitation and other planting conditions impacts seedling establishment in sown plant communities

Ecological restoration can reverse biodiversity loss worldwide, yet restoration goals and outcomes vary widely, which limits this potential. Divergent restoration outcomes may stem from variation in conditions at the outset of restoration, but empirical evidence is lacking and typically confounded with site differences. Additionally, precipitation is usually cited as the source of this variation, although a wide range of conditions can vary annually. We tested for effects of planting year on seedling establishment by installing identical restorations in three different years. Within those years, we manipulated rainfall with rain‐out shelters to disentangle the effects of precipitation from other annually variable conditions. Additionally, we tested whether increasing seed mix richness buffers against adverse planting conditions. For the first growing season after planting, we followed emergence and survival of sown prairie species and nonsown weed species to determine how planting year conditions influence an establishing plant community, if at all. We found that seedling establishment differed across planting years and precipitation treatments, and that varying emergence patterns by species led to differences in the composition of the first‐year community. We also found significant variation in sown species establishment across years when precipitation was held constant, illustrating the previously overlooked role of nonprecipitation drivers on planting year effects. Higher seed mix richness did not consistently improve establishment of sown species under different planting conditions. This research provides important experimental evidence for effects of interannual variation in planting conditions on first‐year establishment. Future work will examine how these initial changes affect longer‐term assembly dynamics.     

Impacts of global change on species distributions: obstacles and solutions to integrate climate and land use

Aim The impact of multiple stressors on biodiversity is one of the most pressing questions in ecology and biodiversity conservation. Here we critically assess how often and efficiently two main drivers of global change have been simultaneously integrated into research, with the aim of providing practical solutions for better integration in the future. We focus on the integration of climate change (CC) and land‐use change (LUC) when studying changes in species distributions. Location Global. Methods We analysed the peer‐reviewed literature on the effects of CC and LUC on observed changes in species distributions, i.e. including species range and abundance, between 2000 and 2014. Results Studies integrating CC and LUC remain extremely scarce, which hampers our ability to develop appropriate conservation strategies. The lack of CC–LUC integration is likely to be a result of insufficient recognition of the co‐occurrence of CC and LUC at all scales, covariation and interactions between CC and LUC, as well as correlations between species thermal and habitat requirements. Practical guidelines for the study of these interactive effects include considering multiple drivers and processes when designing studies, using available long‐term datasets on multiple drivers, revisiting single‐driver studies with additional drivers or conducting comparative studies and meta‐analyses. Combining various methodological approaches, including time lags and adaptation processes, represent further avenues to improve global change science. Main conclusions Despite repeated claims for a better integration of multiple drivers, the effects of CC and LUC on species distributions and abundances have been mostly studied in isolation, which calls for a shift of standards towards more integrative global change science. The guidelines proposed here will encourage study designs that account for multiple drivers and improve our understanding of synergies or antagonisms among drivers.     

Global change belowground: impacts of elevated CO2, nitrogen,and summer drought on soil food webs and biodiversity

The world's ecosystems are subjected to various anthropogenic global change agents, such as enrichment of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, nitrogen (N) deposition, and changes in precipitation regimes. Despite the increasing appreciation that the consequences of impending global change can be better understood if varying agents are studied in concert, there is a paucity of multi‐factor long‐term studies, particularly on belowground processes. Herein, we address this gap by examining the responses of soil food webs and biodiversity to enrichment of CO₂, elevated N, and summer drought in a long‐term grassland study at Cedar Creek, Minnesota, USA (BioCON experiment). We use structural equation modeling (SEM), various abiotic and biotic explanatory variables, and data on soil microorganisms, protozoa, nematodes, and soil microarthropods to identify the impacts of multiple global change effects on drivers belowground. We found that long‐term (13‐year) changes in CO₂ and N availability resulted in modest alterations of soil biotic food webs and biodiversity via several mechanisms, encompassing soil water availability, plant productivity, and – most importantly – changes in rhizodeposition. Four years of manipulation of summer drought exerted surprisingly minor effects, only detrimentally affecting belowground herbivores and ciliate protists at elevated N. Elevated CO₂ increased microbial biomass and the density of ciliates, microarthropod detritivores, and gamasid mites, most likely by fueling soil food webs with labile C. Moreover, beneficial bottom‐up effects of elevated CO₂ compensated for detrimental elevated N effects on soil microarthropod taxa richness. In contrast, nematode taxa richness was lowest at elevated CO₂ and elevated N. Thus, enrichment of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and N deposition may result in taxonomically and functionally altered, potentially simplified, soil communities. Detrimental effects of N deposition on soil biodiversity underscore recent reports on plant community simplification. This is of particular concern, as soils house a considerable fraction of global biodiversity and ecosystem functions.     

Transgenerational effects of three global change drivers on an endemic Mediterranean plant

Plant populations are subjected to changes in their natural environment as a result of the incidence of simultaneous global change drivers. Despite the fact that these changes can largely affect early fitness components, information on the effects of simultaneous drivers of global change on offspring traits and performance is particularly scant. We analyzed the combined effect of three global change drivers of critical importance in Mediterranean ecosystems (habitat fragmentation, reductions in habitat quality and water availability) on germination and seedling performance of the gypsophile shrub Centaurea hyssopifolia. Seedlings from 39 mother plants from eight different environments (resulting from the combination of the three global change drivers) were sown and grown in a common garden. First, germination percentage, seedling size and seedling survival were monitored. Secondly, seedling performance and ecophysiological traits were measured under well and low‐watered conditions. Fragmentation showed the largest negative effect on germination and offspring performance. Seedlings of mothers from small fragments germinated more slowly, showed lower survival, died faster, and showed lower photosynthetic rates under well‐watered conditions compared to seedlings of mother plants from large populations. Seedlings of different maternal origins did not differ in their response to water stress or in their ability to survive to drought. Ninety‐five percent of the seedlings survived until soil water content was as low as 3%. Our study shows that global change can have not only immediate impacts on plant populations but also transgenerational effects, and highlights the importance of studies involving multiple drivers and a more integral understanding of global change.     

Effects of enhanced nitrogen inputs and climate warming on a forest understorey plant assessed by transplant experiments along a latitudinal gradient

Global warming and enhanced nitrogen (N) inputs are two key global-change drivers affecting temperate forest ecosystems simultaneously. Interactive effects of multiple drivers might cause species responses to differ from those in single-factor experiments; therefore, there is an urgent need for more multi-factor studies. Here, we assessed the growth and reproductive performance of multiple populations of a widespread grass of deciduous forests (Milium effusum) sampled along a latitudinal gradient and subjected to experimental manipulations of temperature and nitrogen availability. Common garden transplant experiments along the latitudinal gradient were used to manipulate temperatures and combined with experimental N addition to assess intraspecific responses of the study species to global-change drivers as well as to determine local adaptation. The total biomass, number of seeds and seedling emergence time of M. effusum increased when transplanted in the southern common garden. Apart from effects on the seed mass, the species did not respond to N addition alone. Yet, interactive effects between warming and N addition were found: N addition led to increased biomass growth but only in the northern common garden. Significant home-site advantages were apparent, most likely because of increased mycorrhizal colonization of roots of local transplants. We show that multiple global-change drivers may alter dynamics in understorey communities of temperate forests. Our study reinforces the need to increase our understanding of plant responses to future environmental changes by expanding the multi-factor research framework.     

High N,dry: Experimental nitrogen deposition exacerbates native shrub loss and nonnative plant invasion during extreme drought

Hotter, longer, and more frequent global change‐type drought events may profoundly impact terrestrial ecosystems by triggering widespread vegetation mortality. However, severe drought is only one component of global change, and ecological effects of drought may be compounded by other drivers, such as anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition and nonnative plant invasion. Elevated N deposition, for example, may reduce drought tolerance through increased plant productivity, thereby contributing to drought‐induced mortality. High N availability also often favors invasive, nonnative plant species, and the loss of woody vegetation due to drought may create a window of opportunity for these invaders. We investigated the effects of multiple levels of simulated N deposition on a Mediterranean‐type shrubland plant community in southern California from 2011 to 2016, a period coinciding with an extreme, multiyear drought in the region. We hypothesized that N addition would increase native shrub productivity, but that this would increase susceptibility to drought and result in increased shrub loss over time. We also predicted that N addition would favor nonnatives, especially annual grasses, leading to higher biomass and cover of these species. Consistent with these hypotheses, we found that high N availability increased native shrub canopy loss and mortality, likely due to the higher productivity and leaf area and reduced water‐use efficiency we observed in shrubs subject to N addition. As native shrub cover declined, we also observed a concomitant increase in cover and biomass of nonnative annuals, particularly under high levels of experimental N deposition. Together, these results suggest that the impacts of extended drought on shrubland ecosystems may be more severe under elevated N deposition, potentially contributing to the widespread loss of native woody species and vegetation‐type conversion.     

Separating direct and indirect effects of global change: a population dynamic modeling approach using readily available field data

Two sources of complexity make predicting plant community response to global change particularly challenging. First, realistic global change scenarios involve multiple drivers of environmental change that can interact with one another to produce non‐additive effects. Second, in addition to these direct effects, global change drivers can indirectly affect plants by modifying species interactions. In order to tackle both of these challenges, we propose a novel population modeling approach, requiring only measurements of abundance and climate over time. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, we model population dynamics of eight abundant plant species in a multifactorial global change experiment in alpine tundra where we manipulated nitrogen, precipitation, and temperature over 7 years. We test whether indirect and interactive effects are important to population dynamics and whether explicitly incorporating species interactions can change predictions when models are forecast under future climate change scenarios. For three of the eight species, population dynamics were best explained by direct effect models, for one species neither direct nor indirect effects were important, and for the other four species indirect effects mattered. Overall, global change had negative effects on species population growth, although species responded to different global change drivers, and single‐factor effects were slightly more common than interactive direct effects. When the fitted population dynamic models were extrapolated under changing climatic conditions to the end of the century, forecasts of community dynamics and diversity loss were largely similar using direct effect models that do not explicitly incorporate species interactions or best‐fit models; however, inclusion of species interactions was important in refining the predictions for two of the species. The modeling approach proposed here is a powerful way of analyzing readily available datasets which should be added to our toolbox to tease apart complex drivers of global change.     

Nitrogen deposition enhances moss growth,but leads to an overall decline in habitat condition of mountain moss‐sedge heath

Ecosystems are subject to multiple, natural and anthropogenic environmental influences, including nitrogen (N) deposition, land use and climate. Assessment of the relative importance of these influences on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning is crucial for guiding policy and management decisions to mitigate global change; yet, few studies consider multiple drivers. In the UK, ongoing loss of the internationally important arctic/alpine moss‐sedge community, Racomitrium heath, has been linked to elevated N deposition, high grazing pressures and their combination; however, the relative importance of these drivers remains unclear. We used environmental gradients across the habitat's European distribution (UK, Faroes, Norway and Iceland) to investigate the relative impact of N deposition and grazing pressure, as well as climate, on the condition of the dominant moss species, Racomitrium lanuginosum. Key variables including tissue chemistry, growth and cover were measured at 36 sites, and multiple linear regressions were used to examine the relative importance of the drivers across sites. Our results clearly show that regional variation in the condition of R. lanuginosum across Europe is primarily associated with the impacts of N deposition, with climate (air temperature) and grazing pressure playing secondary roles. In contrast to previous experimental studies, we found moss growth to be stimulated by elevated N deposition; this apparent discrepancy may result from the use of artificially high N concentrations in many experiments. Despite increased growth rates, we found that moss mat depth and cover declined in response to N deposition. Our results suggest that this is due to increased decomposition of material in the moss mat, which ultimately leads to loss of moss cover and habitat degradation. This study clearly demonstrates both the key role of N deposition in degradation of Racomitrium heath and the importance of observational studies along natural gradients for testing predictions from experimental studies in the real world.     

Changes in rainfall level and litter stoichiometry affect aquatic community and ecosystem processes in bromeliad phytotelmata

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Nitrogen deposition and drought events have non-additive effects on plant growth – Evidence from greenhouse experiments

Climate change and nitrogen deposition affect biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, but interactive effects of these global change drivers are poorly understood. We analysed single and interactive effects of nitrogen (N) fertilisation and drought on the growth performance of Calluna vulgaris. We measured biomass production and allocation, tissue nutrient (N, phosphorus (P) and carbon (C)) concentrations, N allocation patterns (using ¹⁵N tracer) and plant's water status (using δ ¹³C signatures) as response variables in a 2-year greenhouse experiment. N fertilisation increased biomass production and biomass shoot:root ratios. ¹⁵N allocation patterns indicated an increasing aboveground N allocation following N fertilisation. Tissue δ ¹³C signatures were higher in N-fertilised plants. Plant responses to drought were weak. We found strong antagonistic interaction effects of N fertilisation and drought for biomass production. δ ¹³C values peaked when N-fertilised plants were subjected to drought, indicating that N fertilisation increased the evaporative demands of Calluna plants, likely due to increased biomass shoot:root ratios, which in turn resulted in higher drought susceptibility. As an important consequence, even slight drought events may weaken the competitiveness of Calluna when interacting with enhanced airborne N loads. Single-factor studies, thus, need to be complemented by multi-factor analyses to assess conceivable impacts of co-occurring global change drivers.     

Nitrogen addition stimulates forest litter decomposition and disrupts species interactions in Patagonia,Argentina

Nitrogen (N) deposition and biodiversity loss are important drivers of global change, with uncertain consequences for carbon (C) and nutrient turnover in terrestrial ecosystems. We evaluated the simultaneous effects of N deposition and plant diversity on litter decomposition within a temperate forest in Patagonia. We identified ‘tree triangles’ created by the intersection of three tree‐canopies that directly controlled micro‐environmental conditions on the forest floor, and combined it with an N addition treatment. Triangles were composed of one or three Nothofagus species (N. dombeyi, N. obliqua or N. nervosa). We placed litterbags containing litter of each of the Nothofagus species and litterbags containing a mixture of the three species within all triangles and assessed mass loss over 2 years. We used a standard litter type in all triangles to independently evaluate triangle effects on decomposition. N addition had strong and positive effects on decomposition with an average 46% increase in the decomposition constant. Litter species significantly differed in their response to N addition; litter with higher lignin content and lower labile C content had larger increase in decomposition due to fertilization. Also, N addition disrupted two types of species interactions that control decomposition. The affinity relation between litter and decomposers, that enhanced decomposition of home litter (‘home‐field advantage’) that was demonstrated to be significant for all three Nothofagus species, disappeared with N addition. Second, N addition modified litter species interactions, transforming neutral effects of litter mixtures to positive, nonadditive effects on mass loss. Finally, N addition stimulated N release from decomposing litter which was modulated by plant species effects. Together, these results suggest that N addition to unpolluted forests increases C loss, contrary to what has been observed for temperate forests in industrialized areas of the world, and that alterations in nutrient pools have effects on species interactions, including the elimination of affinity effects for decomposition.     

Seed predators limit plant recruitment in Neotropical savannas

Despite the well‐documented impacts of consumers on seed abundance the link between seed predation and plant population dynamics remains poorly understood because experimental studies linking patterns of predation with seedling establishment are rare. We used experimental manipulations with six woody plant species to elucidate the effects of seed predator type, habitat, and plant species identity on rates of seed predation and seedling recruitment in the Neotropical savannas known as the Cerrado. We found that seed predation rates are consistently high across a diversity of local habitat types, with important inter‐habitat variation in seed predation for three of the six species used in our experiments. We also found that seed predation has a clear demographic signal – experimentally excluding predators resulted in higher rates of seedling establishment over the course of two seasons. Because the intensity of seed predation varied between species and habitats, it may play a role in structuring local patterns of plant abundance and community composition. Finally, our results lend support to the recent hypothesis that herbivores have major and underappreciated impacts in Neotropical savannas, and that top–down factors can influence the demography of plants in this extensive and biodiversity‐rich biome in previously unexplored ways.     

Climate warming and land‐use changes drive broad‐scale floristic changes in Southern Sweden

Land‐use changes, pollution and climate warming during the 20th century have caused changes in biodiversity across the world. However, in many cases, the environmental drivers are poorly understood. To identify and rank the drivers currently causing broad‐scale floristic changes in N Europe, we analysed data from two vascular plant surveys of 200 randomly selected 2.5 × 2.5 km grid‐squares in Scania, southernmost Sweden, conducted 1989–2006 and 2008–2015, respectively, and related the change in frequency (performance) of the species to a wide range of species‐specific plant traits. We chose traits representing all plausible drivers of recent floristic changes: climatic change (northern distribution limit, flowering time), land‐use change (light requirement, response to grazing/mowing, response to soil disturbance), drainage (water requirement), acidification (pH optimum), nitrogen deposition and eutrophication (N requirement, N fixation ability, carnivory, parasitism, mycorrhizal associations), pollinator decline (mode of reproduction) and changes in CO₂ levels (photosynthetic pathway). Our results suggest that climate warming and changes in land‐use were the main drivers of changes in the flora during the last decades. Climate warming appeared as the most influential driver, with northern distribution limit explaining 30%–60% of the variance in the GLMM models. However, the relative importance of the drivers differed among habitat types, with grassland species being affected the most by cessation of grazing/mowing and species of ruderal habitats by on‐going concentration of both agriculture and human population to the most productive soils. For wetland species, only pH optimum was significantly related to species performance, possibly an effect of the increasing humification of acidic water bodies. An observed relative decline of mycorrhizal species may possibly be explained by decreasing nitrogen deposition resulting in less competition for phosphorus. We found no effect of shortage or decline of pollinating lepidopterans and bees.     

Rapid plant species loss at high rates and at low frequency of N addition in temperate steppe

Humans are both intentionally (fertilization) and unintentionally (atmospheric nutrient deposition) adding nutrients worldwide. Increasing availability of biologically reactive nitrogen (N) is one of the major drivers of plant species loss. It remains unclear, however, whether plant diversity will be equally reduced by inputs of reactive N coming from either small and frequent N deposition events or large and infrequent N fertilization events. By independently manipulating the rate and frequency of reactive N inputs, our study teases apart these potentially contrasting effects. Plant species richness decreased more quickly at high rates and at low frequency of N addition, which suggests that previous fertilization studies have likely over‐estimated the effects of N deposition on plant species loss. N‐induced species loss resulted from both acidification and ammonium toxicity. Further study of small and frequent N additions will be necessary to project future rates of plant species loss under increasing aerial N deposition.     

The Nexus of Carbon,Nitrogen, and Biodiversity Impacts from Urban Metabolism

Methodology is developed for linking the urban metabolism (UM) to global environmental stresses on the carbon (C) cycle, nitrogen (N) cycle, and biodiversity loss. UM variables are systematically mapped to the drivers of carbon, nitrogen, and biodiversity impacts. Change in mean species abundance is used as metric of biodiversity loss, by adopting the dose‐response relationships from the GLOBIO model. The main biodiversity drivers related to UM included here are land‐use change (LUC) and atmospheric N deposition. The methodology is demonstrated by studying the nexus for Shanghai in 2006, based on energy and soybean consumption. Results for Shanghai show a strong nexus between C, N, and biodiversity impact due to electricity consumption and energy used in manufacturing industries and construction. Prioritization of the shift away from coal energy will therefore lead to lowering the urban growth impact on all three dimensions. Road transportation, domestic aviation, and the metal industry impact only the C footprint highly, whereas district energy impacts only biodiversity loss highly, showing a weak nexus. Among the global impacts of soybean consumption in Shanghai on biodiversity loss (due to LUC only), the highest impact occurs in Uruguay (0.52%) followed by Brazil (0.05%) and Argentina (0.02%). The local impact on biodiversity loss (i.e., within China) of soybean consumption in Shanghai is 1.03%. However, the methodology and results are limited due to the partial inclusion of drivers, a carbon footprint based on carbon dioxide emissions only, and limitations of biodiversity loss models. Potential to overcome methodological limitations is discussed.