Do seasonal patterns of rat snake (Pantherophis obsoletus) and black racer (Coluber constrictor) activity predict avian nest predation?

Avian nest success often varies seasonally and because predation is the primary cause of nest failure, seasonal variation in predator activity has been hypothesized to explain seasonal variation in nest success. Despite the fact that nest predator communities are often diverse, recent evidence from studies of snakes that are nest predators has lent some support to the link between snake activity and nest predation. However, the strength of the relationship has varied among studies. Explaining this variation is difficult, because none of these studies directly identified nest predators, the link between predator activity and nest survival was inferred. To address this knowledge gap, we examined seasonal variation in daily survival rates of 463 bird nests (of 17 bird species) and used cameras to document predator identity at 137 nests. We simultaneously quantified seasonal activity patterns of two local snake species (N = 30 individuals) using manual (2136 snake locations) and automated (89,165 movements detected) radiotelemetry. Rat snakes (Pantherophis obsoletus), the dominant snake predator at the site (~28% of observed nest predations), were most active in late May and early June, a pattern reported elsewhere for this species. When analyzing all monitored nests, we found no link between nest predation and seasonal activity of rat snakes. When analyzing only nests with known predator identities (filmed nests), however, we found that rat snakes were more likely to prey on nests during periods when they were moving the greatest distances. Similarly, analyses of all monitored nests indicated that nest survival was not linked to racer activity patterns, but racer‐specific predation (N = 17 nests) of filmed nests was higher when racers were moving the greatest distances. Our results suggest that the activity of predators may be associated with higher predation rates by those predators, but that those effects can be difficult to detect when nest predator communities are diverse and predator identities are not known. Additionally, our results suggest that hand‐tracking of snakes provides a reliable indicator of predator activity that may be more indicative of foraging behavior than movement frequency provided by automated telemetry systems.     

Snake activity affects seasonal variation in nest predation risk for birds

Variation in predator behavior has been proposed, but not tested, as a mechanism producing seasonal declines in avian nest success. We test this hypothesis by documenting seasonal activity of Texas ratsnakes Elaphe obsoleta and nest failure of endangered black-capped vireos Vireo atricapilla and golden-cheeked warblers Dendroica chrysoparia on which the snakes prey. Nest survival analysis was based on 880 vireo and 228 warbler nests and 3,060 snake locations from 62 radio-tracked snakes. Although nest success varied with snake activity for both birds, specific patterns differed substantially. Vireo daily nest survival was negatively correlated with snake activity over the three-year study, despite substantial variation among years in weather, and the fact that these birds are almost certainly a minor prey species of the ratsnakes. Warblers exhibited less clear-cut seasonal variation in nest success, and the association between nest success and snake activity was less pronounced than for vireos. Increased activity at warmer temperatures explained some of the seasonal change in snake movements, although mating may have accounted for a mid-season peak in activity. These results indicate that variation in predator behavior can be associated with and potentially cause seasonal changes in nest success, but also that these relationships are species specific even within the same community and may depend on aspects of the nesting ecology of the prey such as nest site selection.     

Power lines,roads, and avian nest survival: effects on predator identity and predation intensity

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Interpopulation Comparisons of Antipredator Defense Behavior of the Thorn‐Tailed Rayadito (Aphrastura spinicauda)

The high impact of predators on breeding success has favored the evolution of diverse behavioral strategies that enhance both individual survivorship and reproductive success. Self‐ and nest‐defense against predators are inter‐related behaviors that vary according to life history traits and the risks involved in defense. In addition, interpopulation differences in the composition of predator guilds, and hence predation pressures, may result in geographic variation in antipredator defense strategies. It is generally accepted that the absence of predators could drive the loss of antipredator behavior. However, it is unclear how species respond if one type of predator (e.g., a specialized nest predator) is absent but others are present. The multipredator hypothesis suggests that the absence of only a few predators is not sufficient to drive a change or loss of antipredator behavior in a species. We examined interpopulation variation in defense behavior in the thorn‐tailed rayadito (Aphrastura spinicauda), a suboscine bird inhabiting a wide latitudinal range in southern South America. In populations where nest predators were either present or absent, we examined the responses of rayaditos to an adult predator (an owl) and to a nest predator (a marsupial). Owl‐defense behavior involved more intense and longer responses than marsupial‐defense. This suggests that adult rayaditos may allocate more energy to defend themselves than their young. However, because the presence of adult predators near the nest also prevents parents from feeding the nestlings, owl‐defense may simultaneously represent a form of nest‐defense. No differences in marsupial‐defense were found among the three sampled populations, despite the absence of native mammalian nest predators in one population. The lack of variation in nest‐defense behavior provides some support for the multipredator hypothesis, although the high interpopulation gene flow in this species could also contribute to this behavior's maintenance.     

Breeding Phenology of Birds: Mechanisms Underlying Seasonal Declines in the Risk of Nest Predation

Seasonal declines in avian clutch size are well documented, but seasonal variation in other reproductive parameters has received less attention. For example, the probability of complete brood mortality typically explains much of the variation in reproductive success and often varies seasonally, but we know little about the underlying cause of that variation. This oversight is surprising given that nest predation influences many other life-history traits and varies throughout the breeding season in many songbirds. To determine the underlying causes of observed seasonal decreases in risk of nest predation, we modeled nest predation of Dusky Flycatchers (Empidonax oberholseri) in northern California as a function of foliage phenology, energetic demand, developmental stage, conspecific nest density, food availability for nest predators, and nest predator abundance. Seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was not associated with seasonal changes in energetic demand, conspecific nest density, or predator abundance. Instead, seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was associated with foliage density (early, but not late, in the breeding season) and seasonal changes in food available to nest predators. Supplemental food provided to nest predators resulted in a numerical response by nest predators, increasing the risk of nest predation at nests that were near supplemental feeders. Our results suggest that seasonal changes in foliage density and factors associated with changes in food availability for nest predators are important drivers of temporal patterns in risk of avian nest predation.     

Wait Until Dark? Daily Activity Patterns and Nest Predation by Snakes

Predation involves costs and benefits, so predators should employ tactics that reduce their risk of injury or death and that increase their success at capturing prey. One potential way that predators could decrease risk and increase benefits is by attacking prey at night when risks may be reduced and prey more vulnerable. Because some snakes are facultatively nocturnal and prey on bird nests during the day and night, they are ideal for assessing the costs and benefits of diurnal vs. nocturnal predation. We used automated radiotelemetry and cameras to investigate predation on nesting birds by two species of snakes, one diurnal and the other facultatively nocturnal. We predicted that snakes preying on nests at night should experience less parental nest defence and capture more adults and nestlings. Rat snakes (Pantherophis obsoletus) were relatively inactive at night (23–36% activity) but nearly always preyed on nests after dark (80% of nest predations). Conversely, racers (Coluber constrictor) were exclusively diurnal and preyed on nests during the times of day they were most active. These results are consistent with rat snakes strategically using their capacity for facultative nocturnal activity to prey on nests at night. The likely benefit is reduced nest defence because birds defended their nests less vigourously at night. Consistent with nocturnal predation being safer, rat snake predation events lasted three times longer at night than during the day (26 vs. 8 min). Nocturnal nest predation did not make nests more profitable by increasing the likelihood of capturing adults or removing premature fledging of nestlings. The disconnect between rat snake activity and timing of nest predation seems most consistent with rat snakes locating prey during the day using visual cues but waiting until dark to prey on nests when predation is safer, although designing a direct test of this hypothesis will be challenging.     

Exotic shrubs as ephemeral ecological traps for nesting birds

Certain exotic plants may increase risk of nest predation, and, in this way, may act as ecological traps. We hypothesized that the greater vulnerability to predation was a consequence of either (1) reduced nest height due to architectural differences among plant species or (2) seasonal changes in the distribution of nests among forest strata. To test this, we examined temporal variation in nest survival of 888 nests of Northern Cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis) in native substrates and two exotic shrubs (Lonicera maackii and Rosa multiflora) in Ohio, USA, 2001–2006. We evaluated evidence for an ecological trap by monitoring the annual reproductive productivity of 245 breeding pairs of cardinals. Only nests in Rosa experienced relatively constant survival rates across the season, whereas probability of survival increased over the season for nests in other substrates. Interestingly, the relative vulnerability of nests in different substrates varied across the season. Most strikingly, nests in Lonicera in early spring showed the lowest survival rates but exceeded survival rates of nests in native substrates late in the season. Nest height failed to explain seasonal changes in nest survival, as only nests in native plants significantly increased in height as the season progressed. Rather, predation risk seemed to be a function of the proportion of nests within each substrate, as illustrated by the decreased predation in Lonicera as the relative proportion of nests in native substrates increased. The patterns of temporal variation in predation risk that we detected show that impacts of Lonicera are not a function of plant architecture alone and may be related to leaf phenology, changes in nest density, nest site location, and/or nest synchrony. Examination of the reproductive productivity of cardinals showed that pairs that made their first nest attempt in Lonicera fledged 20% fewer cardinal young than birds that began the season using other substrates. Thus, we suggest that exotic plants may represent an ephemeral ecological trap for certain nesting birds, where negative effects persist only during certain periods.     

Flexible nest-site selection under anthropogenic habitat change in an Afrotropical understorey insectivore

Human activities impact upon natural habitats used by birds for breeding and foraging, and lead to changes in the composition and spatial distribution of predator communities, mainly through loss, fragmentation and disturbance of formerly pristine habitat. Yet possible fitness consequences of such changes through impacts on bird nest-site selection remain poorly known. Here we study nest-site selection and reproductive success of Placid Greenbuls Phyllastrephus placidus in the Taita Hills, southeast Kenya. We show that habitat features associated with nest-site selection by this insectivorous, open-cup-nesting bird species vary among forest fragments that are exposed to different levels of habitat disturbance. Such differences in sites selected for breeding result from a plastic response to fragment-specific conditions or may be driven by fragment-specific variation in the distribution and availability of certain habitat features. Given the overall high nest predation rates in our study area, we expected variation in nest-site selection to correlate with reproductive success and nestling condition, but detected no such relationship. Because predator density and nest predation rates may vary strongly in space and time, a better understanding of spatio-temporal variation in predator communities is needed to assess the possible adaptive value of nest-site selection strategies for reducing the high predation rates that are typical for this and many other open-cup-nesting tropical passerines.     

Impacts of nest predators and weather on reproductive success and population limitation in a long‐distance migratory songbird

Although avian nesting success is much studied, little is known about the relative importance of the factors that contribute to annual reproductive success and population limitation, especially for long‐distance migratory songbird species. We combined a field experiment limiting access to nests by mammalian predators with modeling of long‐term field data of American redstarts (Parulidae: Setophaga ruticilla) to assess the effects of multiple environmental variables on breeding success and population limitation. Experimental treatment (baffles placed around tree boles beneath active nests; n = 71) increased nesting success of this single‐brooded species significantly (77 vs 50% in controls; n = 343), demonstrating that scansorial mammals, primarily red squirrels Tamiasciurus hudsonicus and eastern chipmunks Tamias striatus, reduced reproductive success. Based on unbaffled nests (n = 466), daily nest survival varied annually, and was positively influenced by May temperature and negatively by sciurid nest predator abundance. Daily nest survival was also influenced positively by June rainfall, and declined with nest age but not with calendar date. Since nest failure was overwhelmingly caused by nest predation, these significant climate and nest‐age effects in our models are indirect, likely influencing nest predator and/or nesting bird behaviors that in turn influenced nest predation. Redstart population density had no effect on nesting success, after accounting for other factors. Annual reproductive success accounted for 34% of the variability in annual population change in redstarts in our study area. Our findings document 1) breeding season population limitation in this species, 2) a link between tree masting and bird population dynamics via mammal population fluctuations, 3) the independent contributions of summer versus winter population processes in a migratory species, and 4) the potential complexity of climate‐biotic interactions.     

Nocturnal nest predation: a potential obstacle to recovery of a Florida Scrub-Jay population

ABSTRACT.   Population declines among birds are often linked to habitat change and associated increases in nest predation rates. In species of conservation concern identifying nest predators is an important first step in developing management strategies to mitigate low nesting success caused by depredation. Because predator composition varies geographically and with landscape factors habitat restoration may need to be tailored to reduce locally important predators. We used miniature video cameras to identify nest predators in a population of Florida Scrub-Jays ( Aphelocoma coerulescens ) significant to conservation. At 22 nests we observed 25 predation events; 22 (88%) of these events were nocturnal. Yellow rat snakes ( Elaphe obsoleta ) had the highest daily predation rate and accounted for 76% of egg and nestling losses. Florida Scrub-Jays are vulnerable to nocturnal nest predation because their vigilance behavior is ineffective against nocturnal predators, breeders cannot defend against nocturnal predators, and brooding females are at risk of being killed by nocturnal predators. If current habitat restoration efforts do not reduce numbers of yellow rat snakes and improve scrub-jay nesting success, management actions to reduce populations of nocturnal snakes may need to be considered.     

Snake predation on North American bird nests: culprits,patterns and future directions

Predation is the leading cause of nest failure for most birds. Thus, for ornithologists interested in the causes and consequences of variation in nest success, knowing the identity and understanding the behavior of dominant nest predators is likely to be important. Video documentation of nests has shown that snakes are frequent predators. Here we reviewed 53 North American studies that used nest cameras and used these data to identify broad patterns in snake predation. Snakes accounted for 26% (range: 0–90%) of recorded predation events, with values exceeding 35% in a third of studies. Snakes were more frequent nest predators at lower latitudes and less frequent in forested habitat relative to other nest predators. Although 12 species of snakes have been identified as nest predators, ratsnakes Elaphe obsoleta, corn snakes E. guttata and fox snakes E. vulpina were the most frequent, accounting for > 70% of all recorded nest predation events by snakes and have been documented preying on nests in 30–65% of studies conducted within their geographic ranges. Endotherm‐specialist snakes (Elaphe and Pituophis genera) were more likely to depredate nests in forests and the canopy relative to other snakes, due to their affinity for edge habitat. Predation by only ratsnakes and corn snakes was predominantly nocturnal and only ratsnakes were more likely to prey on nests during the nestling stage. Snakes were not identified to species in over 30% of predation events, underlining the need for more complete reporting of results. A review of research to date suggests the best approach to investigating factors that bring snakes and nests into contact involves combining nesting studies with radio tracking of locally important snake nest predators.     

Within‐season increase in parental investment in a long‐lived bird species: investment shifts to maximize successful reproduction?

In nest‐building species predation of nest contents is a main cause of reproductive failure and parents have to trade off reproductive investment against antipredatory behaviours. While this trade‐off is modified by lifespan (short‐lived species prioritize current reproduction; long‐lived species prioritize future reproduction), it may vary within a breeding season, but this idea has only been tested in short‐lived species. Yet, life history theory does not make any prediction how long‐lived species should trade off current against future reproductive investment within a season. Here, we investigated this trade‐off through predator‐exposure experiments in a long‐lived bird species, the brown thornbill. We exposed breeding pairs that had no prior within‐season reproductive success to the models of a nest predator and a predator of adults during their first or second breeding attempt. Overall, parents reduced their feeding rate in the presence of a predator, but parents feeding second broods were more risk sensitive and almost ceased feeding when exposed to both types of predators. However, during second breeding attempts, parents had larger clutches and a higher feeding rate in the absence of predators than during first breeding attempts and approached both types of predators closer when mobbing. Our results suggest that the trade‐off between reproductive investment and risk‐taking can change in a long‐lived species within a breeding season depending on both prior nest predation and renesting opportunities. These patterns correspond to those in short‐lived species, raising the question of whether a within‐season shift in reproductive investment trade‐offs is independent of lifespan.     

Intraseasonal patterns in shorebird nest survival are related to nest age and defence behaviour

Nest survival may vary throughout the breeding season for many bird species, and the nature of this temporal variation can reveal the links between birds, their predators, and other components of the ecosystem. We used program Mark to model patterns in nest survival within the breeding season for shorebirds nesting on arctic tundra. From 2000 to 2007, we monitored 521 nests of five shorebird species and found strong evidence for variation in nest survival within a nesting season. Daily nest survival was lowest in the mid-season in 5 of 8 years, but the timing and magnitude of the lows varied. We found no evidence that this quadratic time effect was driven by seasonal changes in weather or the abundance of predators. Contrary to our prediction, the risk of predation was not greatest when the number of active shorebird nests was highest. Although nest abundance reached a maximum near the middle of the breeding season, a daily index of shorebird nest activity was not supported as a predictor of nest survival in the models. Predators’ access to other diet items, in addition to shorebird nests, may instead determine the temporal patterns of nest predation. Nest survival also displayed a positive, linear relationship with nest age; however, this effect was most pronounced among species with biparental incubation. Among biparental species, parents defended older nests with greater intensity. We did not detect a similar relationship among uniparental species, and conclude that the stronger relationship between nest age and both nest defence and nest survival for biparental species reflects that their nest defence is more effective.     

Increased nest defence of upland‐nesting ducks in response to experimentally reduced risk of nest predation

Parent birds should take greater risks defending nests that have a higher probability of success. Given high rates of mammalian nest predation, therefore, parents should risk more for nests in areas with a lower risk of mammalian predation. We tested this hypothesis using nest defence data from over 1300 nests of six species of dabbling ducks studied in an area where predation risk had been reduced through removal of mammalian predators. When predator removal reduced nest predation, the ducks increased risk taking as predicted. Also as predicted, risk taking varied inversely with body size, an index of annual survival, among species. For ducks to vary nest defence in response to variation in predation risk they must be able to assess the risk of nest predation. Because ducks modified nest defence in the breeding season immediately following predator removal, ducks may be able to assess predator abundance indirectly (e.g. by UV reflection from urine) rather than by seeing or interacting directly with the predators.     

Factors Affecting Daily Nest Survival of Burrowing Owls Within Black-Tailed Prairie Dog Colonies

ABSTRACT Identifying environmental parameters that influence probability of nest predation is important for developing and implementing effective management strategies for species of conservation concern. We estimated daily nest survival for a migratory population of burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia) breeding in black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) colonies in Wyoming, USA. We compared estimates based on 3 common approaches: apparent nesting success, Mayfield estimates, and a model-based logistic-exposure approach. We also examined whether 8 intrinsic and extrinsic factors affected daily nest survival in burrowing owls. Positive biases in apparent nest survival were low (3–6%), probably because prior knowledge of nest locations and colonial behavior among nesting pairs facilitated discovery of most nests early in the nesting cycle. Daily nest survival increased as the breeding season progressed, was negatively correlated with ambient temperature, was positively correlated with nest-burrow tunnel length, and decreased as the nesting cycle progressed. Environmental features were similar between failed and successful nests based on 95% confidence intervals, but the seasonal midpoint was earlier for failed nests (31 May) compared to successful nests (15 Jun). The large annual variation in nest survival (a 15.3% increase between 2003 and 2004) accentuates the importance of multiyear studies when estimating reproductive parameters and when examining the factors that affect those parameters. Failure to locate and monitor nests throughout the breeding season may yield biased estimates of nesting success in burrowing owls (and possibly other species), and some of the variation in nesting success among years and across study sites may be explained by annual and spatial variation in ambient temperature. Any management actions that result in fewer prairie dogs, shorter burrow lengths, or earlier nesting may adversely affect reproductive success of burrowing owls.     

Exclosure fences around nests of imperiled Florida Grasshopper Sparrows reduce rates of predation by mammals

Increasing nest survival by excluding predators is a goal of many bird conservation programs. However, new exclosure projects should be carefully evaluated to assess the potential risks of disturbance. We tested the effectiveness of predator exclosure fences (hereafter, fences) for nests of critically endangered Florida Grasshopper Sparrows (Ammodramus savannarum floridanus) at a dry prairie site (Three Lakes; 2015–2018) and a pasture site (the Ranch; 2015–2016) in Osceola County, Florida, USA. We installed fences at nests an average of 8 days after the start of incubation, and nest abandonment after fence installation was rare (2 of 149 installations). Predation was the leading cause of failure for unfenced nests at both sites (48–73%). At Three Lakes, nest cameras revealed that mammals and snakes were responsible for 61.5% and 38.5% of predation events, respectively, at unfenced nests. Fences reduced the daily probability of predation (0.016 for fenced nests vs. 0.074 for unfenced nests). The probability that a fenced nest would survive from discovery to fledging was more than double that of unfenced nests (60.4% vs. 27.7%). However, we found no difference in daily nest survival at the Ranch between the year before nests were fenced (2015; 0.874) and the year when all but one nest were fenced (2016; 0.867) because red imported fire ants (Solenopsis invicta) were responsible for 86% of predation events at fenced nests at the Ranch. The use of cameras at fenced nests revealed that site‐specific differences in nest predators explained variation in fence efficiency between sites. Our fence design may be useful for other species of grassland birds, but site‐specific predator communities and species‐specific response of target bird species to fences should be assessed before installing fences at other sites.     

Nest survival is influenced by parental behaviour and heterospecifics in a mixed‐species colony

Studies of avian nest success often focus on examining influences of variation in environmental and seasonal factors. However, in‐depth evaluations can also incorporate variation in individual incubation behaviour to further advance our understanding of avian reproductive ecology. We examined these relationships in colonially nesting Black‐crowned Night‐Herons Nycticorax nycticorax using intensive video‐monitoring methods to quantify incubation behaviours. We modelled nest survival as a function of both extrinsic factors and incubation behaviours over a 3‐year period (2010–12) on Alcatraz Island, USA. Model‐averaged parameter estimates indicated that nest survival increased as a function of greater incubation constancy (% of time spent incubating eggs within a 24‐h period), and average daily precipitation throughout the nesting stage. Common Ravens Corvus corax are the only known nest predator of Night‐Herons on Alcatraz Island, as on many other coastal Pacific islands. We also investigated the effects of heterospecific nesting of California Gulls Larus californicus and Western Gulls Larus occidentalis in a mixed‐species colony with Night‐Herons, based on nesting proximity data collected over a 2‐year period (2011–12). This second analysis indicated that, in addition to incubation behaviours, nesting heterospecifics are an important factor for explaining variation in Night‐Heron nest survival. However, contrary to our original expectation, we found that Night‐Herons experienced increased nest survival with increasing distance from gull colony boundaries. These results may apply to other areas with multiple colonial nesting species and similar predator communities and climatic patterns.     

Effects of military activity on breeding birds

United States military bases provide habitat for a diverse suite of wildlife species despite intense anthropogenic disturbance inherent in training activities. Little research has examined how military activity affects wildlife reproduction. We compared parental investment, reproductive success, offspring and adult quality, and stress hormone concentrations of northern cardinals (Cardinalis cardinalis) breeding in areas that differed 10-fold in levels of on-ground military activity. We found no evidence of direct impacts of military activity on cardinals, nor did the reproductive success of several other passerine species appear to be affected. However, we observed American crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos) much less frequently in areas of high military activity, and cardinals nesting in those areas were less responsive to crow models. The apparent displacement of this nest predator suggests that military activity could indirectly benefit some wildlife. Although these results are promising for the conservation of birds that depend on military bases for breeding habitat, further assessment of direct and indirect effects of military training on a wider array of species is required before concluding that such activity is benign. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Mobbing behaviour in a passerine community increases with prevalence in predator diet

Mobbing behaviour against predators is well documented but less is known about the factors influencing variation in behavioural response between prey species. We conducted a series of playback experiments to examine how the mobbing responses of prey species differed according to their relative risk of predation by the Eurasian Pygmy Owl Glaucidium passerinum, a predator of passerines. We found that mobbing among 22 passerine prey species was positively correlated with their prevalence in the Pygmy Owl diet. To compare mobbing behaviour between two seasons, we conducted playback experiments during spring (breeding season) and autumn (non‐breeding season). Contrary to previous studies, we found that mobbing intensity was greater during autumn than in spring. Our study shows a differential mobbing response of 22 species to the calls from one predator species and underscores the importance of considering seasonal variation in mobbing behaviour. Mobbing response differences observed among bird species strongly suggest different cooperation behaviour at the community level.     

Compounding effects of habitat fragmentation and predation on bird nests

Habitat fragmentation and invasive species are two of the greatest threats to species diversity worldwide. This is particularly relevant for oceanic islands with vulnerable endemics. Here, we examine how habitat fragmentation influences nest predation by Rattus spp. on cup‐nesting birds in Samoan forests. We determined models for predicting predation rates by Rattus on artificial nests at two scales: (i) the position of the bird's nest within the landscape (e.g. proximity to mixed crop plantations, distance to forest edge); and (ii) the microhabitat in the immediate vicinity of the nest (e.g. nest height, ground cover, slope). Nest cameras showed only one mammal predator, the black rat (Rattus rattus), predating artificial nests. The optimal model predicting nest predation rates by black rats included a landscape variable, proximity to plantations and a local nest site variable, the percentage of low (<15 cm) ground cover surrounding the nest tree. Predation rates were 22 ± 13% higher for nests in forest edges near mixed crop plantations than in edges without plantations. In contrast, predation rates did not vary significantly between edge habitat where the matrix did not contain plantations, and interior forest sites (>1 km from the edge). As ground cover reduced, nest predation rates increased. Waxtags containing either coconut or peanut butter were used as a second method for assessing nest predation. The rates at which these were chewed followed patterns similar to the predation of the artificial nests. Rural development in Samoa will increase the proportion of forest edge near plantations. Our results suggest that this will increase the proportion of forest birds that experience nest predation from black rats. Further research is required to determine if rat control is needed to maintain even interior forest sites populations of predator‐sensitive bird species on South Pacific islands.