Rain,rats and pythons: Climate‐driven population dynamics of predators and prey in tropical Australia

Abstract: All natural populations fluctuate in abundance and age structure through time; understanding why they do so is a critical step towards their effective management and conservation. However, the long‐term data sets needed for such an understanding are rarely available, especially for tropical organisms. A 17‐year capture‐mark–recapture study yielded detailed information on the demography of water pythons (Liasis fuscus) and their main prey, the dusky rat (Rattus colletti), on the Adelaide River flood plain in tropical Australia. The link between annual rainfall patterns and rat demography was highly non‐linear. Rat numbers were low during years with low and high rainfall at the end of the wet season (April). Numbers of both predators and prey fluctuated considerably among years. Annual fluctuations in rat numbers generated a corresponding variation in rates of female python reproduction, python body condition and survival. Although variation in recruitment, survival and prey abundance all had a significant impact on annual fluctuations in python numbers, our analyses suggest that recruitment constituted the main determinant in driving the population dynamics of these large tropical predators. In combination with our other studies on this system, the data show that population dynamics of the water python population is ultimately driven by annual variation in rainfall, mediated via shifts in prey availability. The water pythons and the dusky rats of the Adelaide River flood plain thus demonstrate an unusually clear and direct link between an abiotic factor (rainfall) and predator–prey population dynamics.     

Dampening prey cycle overrides the impact of climate change on predator population dynamics: a long‐term demographic study on tawny owls

Predicting the dynamics of animal populations with different life histories requires careful understanding of demographic responses to multifaceted aspects of global changes, such as climate and trophic interactions. Continent‐scale dampening of vole population cycles, keystone herbivores in many ecosystems, has been recently documented across Europe. However, its impact on guilds of vole‐eating predators remains unknown. To quantify this impact, we used a 27‐year study of an avian predator (tawny owl) and its main prey (field vole) collected in Kielder Forest (UK) where vole dynamics shifted from a high‐ to a low‐amplitude fluctuation regime in the mid‐1990s. We measured the functional responses of four demographic rates to changes in prey dynamics and winter climate, characterized by wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (wNAO). First‐year and adult survival were positively affected by vole density in autumn but relatively insensitive to wNAO. The probability of breeding and number of fledglings were higher in years with high spring vole densities and negative wNAO (i.e. colder and drier winters). These functional responses were incorporated into a stochastic population model. The size of the predator population was projected under scenarios combining prey dynamics and winter climate to test whether climate buffers or alternatively magnifies the impact of changes in prey dynamics. We found the observed dampening vole cycles, characterized by low spring densities, drastically reduced the breeding probability of predators. Our results illustrate that (i) change in trophic interactions can override direct climate change effect; and (ii) the demographic resilience entailed by longevity and the occurrence of a floater stage may be insufficient to buffer hypothesized environmental changes. Ultimately, dampened prey cycles would drive our owl local population towards extinction, with winter climate regimes only altering persistence time. These results suggest that other vole‐eating predators are likely to be threatened by dampening vole cycles throughout Europe.     

The negative effects of pathogen‐infected prey on predators: a meta‐analysis

Intra‐guild predation (IGP) – where a top predator (IG_Pred) consumes both a basal resource and a competitor for that resource (IG_Prey) – has become a fundamental part of understanding species interactions and community dynamics. IGP communities composed of intraguild predators and prey have been well studied; however, we know less about IGP communities composed of predators, pathogens, and resources. Resource quality plays an important role in community dynamics and may influence IGP dynamics as well. We conducted a meta‐analysis on predator–pathogen–resource communities to determine whether resource quality mediated by the pathogen affected predator life‐history traits and if these effects met the theoretical constraints of IGP communities. To do this, we summarized results from studies that investigated the use of predators and pathogens to control insect pests. In these systems, the predators are the IG_Pred and pathogens are the IG_Prey. We found that consumer longevity, fecundity, and survival decreased by 26%, 31% and 13% respectively, when predators consumed pathogen‐infected prey, making the infected prey a low quality resource. Predators also significantly preferred healthy prey over infected prey. When we divided consumers by enemy type, strict predators (e.g. wolf spiders) had no preference while parasitoids preferred healthy prey. Our results suggest that communities containing parasitoids and pathogens may rarely exhibit intraguild predation; whereas, communities composed of strict predators and pathogens are more likely dominated by IGP dynamics. In these latter communities, the consumption of low and high quality resources suggests that IGP communities composed of strict predators, pathogens and prey should naturally persist, supporting IGP theory. Synthesis We investigated how consuming pathogen‐infected prey influence important life‐history parameters of insect predators. Pathogens are used in a variety of biocontrol programs, especially to control crop pests. We found that true predators (i.e. wolf spiders) have no preference for healthy or infected prey and have reduced fecundity, survival and longevity consuming infected prey. However, parasitoids avoided infected prey when possible. In biocontrol programs with multiple control agents, parasitoids and pathogens would do a better job controlling pests as predators would reduce the amount of pathogen available and have reduced fitness from consuming infected prey. However, theory suggests that true predators, prey and pathogens may coexist long term.     

Emergent impacts of multiple predators on prey

Although almost all prey live with many types of predator, most experimental studies of predation have examined the effects of only one predator at a time. Recent work has revealed new insights into the emergent impacts of multiple predators on prey and experimental studies have identified statistical methods for evaluating them. These studies suggest two main types of emergent effect-risk reduction caused by predator-predator interactions and risk enhancement caused by conflicting prey responses to multiple predators. Some theory and generalities are beginning to emerge concerning the conditions that tend to produce these two outcomes.     

Population dynamics of prey exhibiting inducible defenses: the role of associated costs and density-dependence

The effect of antipredator behavior on the dynamics of a resource-consumer model was analyzed in relation to the magnitude of associated costs, and the strength of density-dependence. For this purpose, I present a deterministic continuous resource-consumer model that exhibits biomass conversion, structural homogeneity, and competition for renewable and fixed resources as separate processes. Antipredator behavior is incorporated as an inducible response to consumer density, and has metabolic and feeding costs. By means of numerical methods, I show: (1) that antipredator behavior is stabilizing for certain parameter ranges, where other stabilizing forces do not dominate the dynamics; (2) intraspecific competition for both fixed and renewable resources have a stabilizing role; (3) metabolic cost is always stabilizing, and feeding cost can be stabilizing or destabilizing, depending on the relative strength of the two competition forces.     

The contrasting effects of short‐ and long‐term habitat drainage on the population dynamics of freshwater turtles in a human‐dominated landscape

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Plant resistance attenuates the consumptive and non‐consumptive impacts of predators on prey

Plant resistance and predation have strong independent and interacting effects on herbivore survival, behavior, and patterns of herbivory. Historically, research has emphasized variation in the consumption of herbivores by enemies. Recent work, however, demonstrates that predators also elicit important changes in the traits of their prey, but we do not know how this is influenced by plant quality. In this study, we quantify how the consumptive and non‐consumptive effects of predators vary along a gradient of plant resistance using tomato plants (Solanum lycopersicum), tobacco hornworms (Manduca sexta), and predaceous stinkbugs (Podisus maculiventris). We manipulated resource quality using three tomato lines that vary in the expression of the jasmonate pathway, a phytohormonal pathway that is central in mediating resistance to insects. Resistant plants had higher levels of defensive proteins and glandular trichomes than low resistance plants. The consumptive and non‐consumptive effects of predators were quantified on the three tomato lines by comparing the impact of ‘lethal’ predators that both kill and scare prey with ‘risk’ predators whose mouthparts were surgically impaired to prevent killing. Across several field experiments, the total cascading effect of predators on plant damage was 80.4% lower on jasmonate‐overex‐pressing (highly resistant) plants compared to that on wild‐type or jasmonate‐insensitive (low resistance) plants. This dramatic attenuation of predator effects was due to a 66% reduction in consumption on high resistance plants, and also because of a 65% decline in non‐consumptive effects. Numerous studies in natural and agricultural habitats have documented that predator effects tend to be weaker on well‐defended plants; our results provide novel mechanistic insight into this pattern by demonstrating that plant resistance substantially weakens both the consumptive and non‐consumptive impacts of predators.     

Woodland restoration on agricultural land: long‐term impacts on soil quality

Woodland restoration is underway globally to counter the negative soil quality and ecological impacts of agricultural expansion and woodland fragmentation, and restore or enhance biodiversity, ecosystem functions and services. However, we lack information about the long‐term effects of woodland restoration on agricultural soils, particularly at temporal scales meaningful to woodland and soil development. This study utilized soil and earthworm sampling across a chronosequence of sites transitioning from “agricultural land” to “secondary woodland” (50–110 years) and “ancient woodland” (>400 years), with the goal of quantifying the effects of woodland restoration on agricultural land, on key soil quality parameters (soil bulk density, pH, carbon and nitrogen stocks, and earthworm abundance, biomass, species richness and diversity). Broad‐leaved woodland restoration led to significantly greater soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks compared to arable land, and young (50–60 years) secondary woodland increased earthworm species and functional diversity compared to both arable and pasture agricultural land. SOC stocks in secondary broad‐leaved woodlands (50–110 years) were comparable to those found in long‐term ancient woodlands (>400 years). Our findings show that broad‐leaved woodland restoration of agricultural land can lead to meaningful soil ecological improvement and gains in SOC within 50–110 years, and provide intel on how restoration activities may be best targeted to maximize soil quality and functions.     

Phylogenetic island disequilibrium: evidence for ongoing long‐term population dynamics in two Mediterranean butterflies

Aim Our aims were to verify the existence of phylogenetic disequilibrium between butterfly lineages at the subcontinental scale for islands and the nearest mainland and to test the capacity of islands for hosting ancestral populations of butterflies and the significance of such relict populations. Location The western Mediterranean continental area of Europe and North Africa together with several large and small islands (Balearics, Tuscan Archipelago, Aeolian Archipelago, Capri, Sardinia, Sicily, Corsica). Methods Using geometric morphometrics, the shape of male genitalia was analysed in two common butterflies (Pyronia cecilia and Pyronia tithonus), whose spatial heterogeneity in the Mediterranean region has recently been described. Observed patterns in genital shapes were compared with shapes predicted for islands and fossil islands to assess the contribution of historical and current events in accounting for the transition from a refugial model to an equilibrium model. Measurements were taken for 473 specimens in 90 insular and mainland sites. Results The shape of the genitalia of populations of most islands differed substantially from that predicted by the equilibrium hypothesis while closely fitting the refugial hypothesis. The comparison between different models strongly suggests that islands maintain ancestral lineages similar to those living in Spain (P. cecilia) and France (P. tithonus). A high correlation between observed and predicted patterns on islands and fossil islands occurs during the first steps of modelled introgressive hybridization while the following steps exposed a successively lower fit, suggesting that the process from a refugial to an equilibrium situation is highly skewed towards an earlier non‐equilibrium. Main conclusions The observed non‐equilibrium pattern supports the refugial hypothesis, suggesting that an ancestral lineage was originally distributed from Spain to Italy, and also occupied offshore islands. This lineage, replaced in Italy, has persisted on the islands owing to their isolation. A comparison of the distribution patterns for genetic and morphometric markers in several species indicates that the situation highlighted for Pyronia may represent a common biogeographic feature for many Mediterranean butterflies.     

Understanding interactive inducible defenses of Daphnia and its phytoplankton prey

Cyanobacterial and zooplankton inducible defenses are important but understudied process that regulate the trophic interactions of freshwater ecosystem. Daphnia due to its large size is considered an important zooplankton with the high potential to control cyanobacterial blooms. It has been shown that Daphnia through maternal induction transfer tolerance to their next generation against Microcystis toxicity. Maternal induction has been investigated in different Daphnia species without considering phenotypic plasticity of prey. Laboratory experiments were performed to explore cyanobacteria-Daphnia inducible defenses in order to better understand their interactions. Two Daphnia species were fed either with Microcystis aeruginosa PCC7806 (Ma) or Microcystis flos-aquae (Mf) mixed with Chlorella vulgaris (Cv) (exposed Daphnia), and or pure Cv (unexposed Daphnia). Exposed prey cultures were produced by prior exposure to Daphnia infochemicals. Neonates produced by exposed and unexposed Daphnia were fed with mixed diet (Microcystis + Cv) of either exposed and or unexposed prey. Growth parameters and toxin production of exposed prey cultures were significantly different than that of control. Exposed Daphnia fecundity and survival was higher as compared to unexposed Daphnia. Growth and reproduction was reduced in exposed Daphnia when fed with exposed prey as compared to those fed with unexposed prey. This study provides information on the interactive inducible defenses between cyanobacteria and its grazer under laboratory conditions and may increase our understanding of cyanobacteria and Daphnia interactions in the freshwater ecosystem.     

Restorative mowing on an abandoned semi‐natural meadow: short‐term and predicted long‐term effects

Abstract. When management, in the form of cattle grazing and mowing, ceases the abundance of competitively superior plant species tends to increase in abandoned semi‐natural meadows. Litter accumulation elevates the soil nutrient levels and hinders seedling recruitment. We surveyed changes in plant cover and species composition of a formerly grazed meadow in permanent plots for six years. Some plots were unmown, while others were mown and raked annually in August. The cover of grasses decreased and herb cover remained unchanged regardless of the treatment. Mowing and raking significantly reduced litter accumulation and increased the number of ground layer species. The expected long‐term effects of abandonment and restorative mowing were studied by calculating the transition probabilities for unmown and mown plots and simulating the course of succession as projected by the transition matrices. During a simulation period of 30 yr, abandonment led to (1) a decrease in the cover of small herbs, (2) a slight increase in the cover of tall herbs and (3) a slight decrease in the cover of grasses. In contrast, the cover of small herbs on the mown plots remained unchanged or slightly increased during the course of simulation. These results suggest that mowing late in the season is primarily a management tool for the maintenance of the existing species diversity and composition. However, it may not be an effective restorative tool to induce overall changes in the resident vegetation of abandoned grass‐dominated meadows. Grazing or mowing early in the season may be more effective in this respect. Consequently, mowing early or, alternatively, late in the season may provide management strategies for the maintenance and restoration of species diversity, respectively.     

Topological effects of network structure on long‐term social network dynamics in a wild mammal

Social structure influences ecological processes such as dispersal and invasion, and affects survival and reproductive success. Recent studies have used static snapshots of social networks, thus neglecting their temporal dynamics, and focused primarily on a limited number of variables that might be affecting social structure. Here, instead we modelled effects of multiple predictors of social network dynamics in the spotted hyena, using observational data collected during 20 years of continuous field research in Kenya. We tested the hypothesis that the current state of the social network affects its long‐term dynamics. We employed stochastic agent‐based models that allowed us to estimate the contribution of multiple factors to network changes. After controlling for environmental and individual effects, we found that network density and individual centrality affected network dynamics, but that social bond transitivity consistently had the strongest effects. Our results emphasise the significance of structural properties of networks in shaping social dynamics.     

Field experiments show contradictory short‐ and long‐term myrmecochorous plant impacts on seed‐dispersing ants

1. Some interactions previously described as mutualistic were revealed to be commensal or parasitic in subsequent investigations. Ant‐mediated seed dispersal has been described as a mutualism for more than a century; however, recent research suggests that it may be commensal or parasitic. Plants demonstrably benefit from ant‐mediated seed dispersal, although there is little evidence available to demonstrate that the interaction benefits long‐term ant fitness. 2. Field experiments were conducted in temperate North America focused on a key seed‐dispersing ant. All herbaceous plants were removed from a forest understorey for 13 years, and supplemented ant colonies with large elaiosome‐bearing seeds aiming to examine potential long‐ and short‐term myrmecochorous plant benefits for the ants. 3. If elaiosome‐bearing seeds benefit ants, suggesting a mutualistic relationship, it is expected that there would be greater worker and/or alate abundance and greater fat reserves (colony lipid content) with seed supplementation (short‐term) and in areas with high understorey herb abundance. 4. Short‐term seed supplementation of ant colonies did not result in an increase with respect to numbers or fat stores, although it did prompt the production of colony sexuals, which is a potential fitness benefit. In the long term, however, there was no positive effect on the ants and, instead, there were negative effects because the removal of elaiosome‐bearing plants corresponded with greater colony health. 5. The data obtained in the present study suggest that the ant–plant interaction ranged from occasionally beneficial to neutral to overall negative for the ant partner. Such results did not support considering the interaction as a mutualism. Collectively, the data suggest the need to reconsider the nature of the relationship between these ants and plants.     

Not attackable or not crackable—How pre‐ and post‐attack defenses with different competition costs affect prey coexistence and population dynamics

It is well‐known that prey species often face trade‐offs between defense against predation and competitiveness, enabling predator‐mediated coexistence. However, we lack an understanding of how the large variety of different defense traits with different competition costs affects coexistence and population dynamics. Our study focusses on two general defense mechanisms, that is, pre‐attack (e.g., camouflage) and post‐attack defenses (e.g., weaponry) that act at different phases of the predator—prey interaction. We consider a food web model with one predator, two prey types and one resource. One prey type is undefended, while the other one is pre‐ or post‐attack defended paying costs either by a higher half‐saturation constant for resource uptake or a lower maximum growth rate. We show that post‐attack defenses promote prey coexistence and stabilize the population dynamics more strongly than pre‐attack defenses by interfering with the predator's functional response: Because the predator spends time handling “noncrackable” prey, the undefended prey is indirectly facilitated. A high half‐saturation constant as defense costs promotes coexistence more and stabilizes the dynamics less than a low maximum growth rate. The former imposes high costs at low resource concentrations but allows for temporally high growth rates at predator‐induced resource peaks preventing the extinction of the defended prey. We evaluate the effects of the different defense mechanisms and costs on coexistence under different enrichment levels in order to vary the importance of bottom‐up and top‐down control of the prey community.     

Predator effects on prey population dynamics in open systems

Animal population dynamics in open systems are affected not only by agents of mortality and the influence of species interactions on behavior and life histories, but also by dispersal and recruitment. We used an extensive data set to compare natural loss rates of two mayfly species that co-occur in high-elevation streams varying in predation risk, and experience different abiotic conditions during larval development. Our goals were to generate hypotheses relating predation to variation in prey population dynamics and to evaluate alternative mechanisms to explain such variation. While neither loss rates nor abundance of the species that develops during snowmelt (Baetis bicaudatus) varied systematically with fish, loss rates of the species that develops during baseflow (Baetis B) were higher in streams containing brook trout than streams without fish; and surprisingly, larvae of this species were most abundant in trout streams. This counter-intuitive pattern could not be explained by a trophic cascade, because densities of intermediate predators (stoneflies) did not differ between fish and fishless streams and predation by trout on stoneflies was negligible. A statistical model estimated that higher recruitment and accelerated development enables Baetis B to maintain larger populations in trout streams despite higher mortality from predation. Experimental estimates suggested that predation by trout potentially accounts for natural losses of Baetis B, but not Baetis bicaudatus. Predation by stoneflies on Baetis is negligible in fish streams, but could make an important contribution to observed losses of both species in fishless streams. Non-predatory sources of loss were higher for B. bicaudatus in trout streams, and for Baetis B in fishless streams. We conclude that predation alone cannot explain variation in population dynamics of either species; and the relative importance of predation is species- and environment-specific compared to non-predatory losses, such as other agents of mortality and non-consumptive effects of predators. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Long‐term effects of prairie restoration on plant community structure and native population dynamics

The key to restoring degraded grassland habitats is identifying feasible and effective techniques to reduce the negative impacts of exotic species and promote self‐sustaining native populations. It is often difficult to extend monitoring of restoration efforts to evaluate long‐term success, but doing so is essential to understanding how initial outcomes change over time. To assess how initial treatment effects persist, we revisited degraded patches of Pacific Northwest prairie habitat 6 years after experimental restoration efforts ceased. We evaluated plant community composition to determine the lasting effects of supplemental native seeding and disturbance treatments (burning, mowing, and herbicide to reduce exotic species). We tracked the persistence of seeded species and measured spread of their populations to evaluate suitability of species for restoration and the ability of the habitat to support native plant populations. We found that plots that received supplemental seeding continued to exhibit higher richness of native species than those left unseeded, and that both seeding and disturbance treatments could positively influence native species abundance over the long term. The initially observed effects of disturbance treatments on reducing exotic grass abundance had diminished, highlighting the importance of long‐term monitoring and ongoing control of exotic species. Nevertheless, these treatments significantly influenced the population trajectories of 4 out of 8 seeded native species. There was evidence of spatial advance of most seeded species. Results from extended monitoring confirm that dispersal limitation of native species and difficulties maintaining the reduction of exotic grasses continue to be major barriers to success in restoration of invaded grasslands.     

Damped long‐term host–parasite Red Queen coevolutionary dynamics: a reflection of dilution effects?

An increase in biological diversity leads to a greater stability of ecosystem properties. For host–parasite interactions, this is illustrated by the ‘dilution effect’: a negative correlation between host biodiversity and disease risk. We show that a similar mechanism might stabilise host–parasite dynamics at a lower level of diversity, i.e. at the level of genetic diversity within host species. A long‐term time shift experiment, based on a historical reconstruction of a Daphnia–parasite coevolution, reveals infectivity cycles with more stable amplitude in experienced than in naive hosts. Coevolutionary models incorporating an increase in host allelic diversity over time explain the detected asymmetry. The accumulation of resistance alleles creates an opportunity for the host to stabilise Red Queen dynamics. It leads to a larger arsenal enhancing the host performance in its coevolution with the parasite in which ‘it takes all the running both antagonists can do to keep in the same place’.     

Population dynamics of the spruce bark beetle: a long‐term study

Bark beetle population dynamics is thought to be primarily driven by bottom‐up forces affecting insect performance and host tree resistance. Although there are theoretical predictions and empirical evidences that predation and parasitism may play an important role in driving bark beetle population fluctuations, long‐term studies testing the role of both biotic and abiotic controls on population dynamics are still rare. The aim of the study was to quantify the relative importance of predation, negative density feedback and abiotic factors in driving Ips typographus population dynamics. We analyzed a unique time series of population density of I. typographus and its main predator Thanasimus formicarius over almost two decades in four regions across Sweden. We used a discrete population model and a multi‐model inference approach to evaluate the importance of both bottom up and top down factors. We found that availability of breeding substrates in the form of storm‐felled trees was the main outbreak trigger, while strong intra‐specific competition for host trees was the main endogenous regulating factor. Although temperature‐related metrics are known to have strong individual effect on I. typographus development and number of generations, they did not emerge as important drivers of population dynamics. A positive effect of low summer rainfall was evident only in the region located in the southernmost and warmest part of the spruce distribution range in Sweden. Predator density did not emerge as an important prey regulating factor. As the reported damage from storms seems to have increased across whole Europe, spruce forests are expected to be increasingly susceptible to large outbreaks of I. typographus with important economic and ecological consequences for boreal ecosystems. However, the observed negative density feedback seems to be a natural regulating mechanism that impedes a strong long‐term propagation of the outbreaks.     

Community impacts of two invasive crabs: the interactive roles of density, prey recruitment, and indirect effects

Assessing the implications of species invasion for native communities requires determining whether effects of invaders are novel, or are redundant with effects of species that are already present. Using a pair of field experiments conducted over two successive years, we examined factors that influence community impacts of a recent predatory crab invader (Hemigrapsus sanguineus) and a previously established invasive crab (Carcinus maenas) on New England coasts. We demonstrate that effects of these species differ temporally with changes in the ambient prey community, and are influenced by density differences between the two species and by different strengths and types of indirect effects that each elicits. Our study highlights the importance of including bottom-up processes (i.e., prey recruitment) when examining the redundancy of consumers.