Projecting demographic responses to climate change: adult and juvenile survival respond differently to direct and indirect effects of weather in a passerine population

Few studies have quantitatively projected changes in demography in response to climate change, yet doing so can provide important insights into the processes that may lead to population declines and changes in species distributions. Using a long‐term mark‐recapture data set, we examined the influence of multiple direct and indirect effects of weather on adult and juvenile survival for a population of Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia) in California. We found evidence for a positive, direct effect of winter temperature on adult survival, and a positive, indirect effect of prior rainy season precipitation on juvenile survival, which was consistent with an effect of precipitation on food availability during the breeding season. We used these relationships, and climate projections of significantly warmer and slightly drier winter weather by the year 2100, to project a significant increase in mean adult survival (12–17%) and a slight decrease in mean juvenile survival (4–6%) under the B1 and A2 climate change scenarios. Together with results from previous studies on seasonal fecundity and postfledging survival in this population, we integrated these results in a population model and projected increases in the population growth rate under both climate change scenarios. Our results underscore the importance of considering multiple, direct, and indirect effects of weather throughout the annual cycle, as well as differences in the responses of each life stage to climate change. Projecting demographic responses to climate change can identify not only how populations will be affected by climate change but also indicate the demographic process(es) and specific mechanisms that may be responsible. This information can, in turn, inform climate change adaptation plans, help prioritize future research, and identify where limited conservation resources will be most effectively and efficiently spent.     

Effect of juvenile hormone on senescence in males with terminal investment

Senescence, a decline in survival and reproductive prospects with age, is controlled by hormones. In insects, juvenile hormone (JH) is involved in senescence with captive individuals, but its effect under natural conditions is unknown. We have addressed this gap by increasing JH levels in young and old wild males of the damselfly Hetaerina americana. We assessed survival in males that were treated with a JH analogue (methoprene), which is known to promote sexual activity, and an immune challenge, which is known to promote terminal investment in reproduction in the studied species. We replicated the same procedure in captivity (to control for environmental variation), where males were deprived of any activity or food. We expected old males to show the lowest survival after being treated with JH and immune‐challenged, because the effect of terminal investment on senescence would be exacerbated by JH. However, this should be the case for wild animals, but not for captive animals, as the effects of JH and immune challenge should lead to an increase in high energetic‐demanding activities only occurring in the wild. Old animals died sooner compared with young animals in both the wild and captivity, confirming that males are subject to senescence. In wild but not captive animals, JH decreased survival in young males and increased it in old males, confirming that JH is sensitive to the environment when shaping animal senescence. Immune challenge had no effect on survival, suggesting no effect of terminal investment on senescence. Additionally, contrary to the expected effects of terminal investment, with an immune challenge, recapture rates increased in young males and decreased in old males. Our results show that male senescence in the wild is mediated by JH and that terminal investment does not cause senescence. One explanation is that animals undergoing senescence and terminal investment modify their feeding behaviour to compensate for their physiological state.     

Using pedigree reconstruction to estimate population size: genotypes are more than individually unique marks

Estimates of population size are critical for conservation and management, but accurate estimates are difficult to obtain for many species. Noninvasive genetic methods are increasingly used to estimate population size, particularly in elusive species such as large carnivores, which are difficult to count by most other methods. In most such studies, genotypes are treated simply as unique individual identifiers. Here, we develop a new estimator of population size based on pedigree reconstruction. The estimator accounts for individuals that were directly sampled, individuals that were not sampled but whose genotype could be inferred by pedigree reconstruction, and individuals that were not detected by either of these methods. Monte Carlo simulations show that the population estimate is unbiased and precise if sampling is of sufficient intensity and duration. Simulations also identified sampling conditions that can cause the method to overestimate or underestimate true population size; we present and discuss methods to correct these potential biases. The method detected 2–21% more individuals than were directly sampled across a broad range of simulated sampling schemes. Genotypes are more than unique identifiers, and the information about relationships in a set of genotypes can improve estimates of population size.     

Parallel declines in survival of adult Northern Fulmars Fulmarus glacialis at colonies in Scotland and Ireland

Assessing broad‐scale changes in seabird populations across the North Atlantic requires an integration of available datasets to understand the spatial extent of potential drivers and demographic change. Here, we compared survival of Northern Fulmars Fulmarus glacialis from a Scottish and an Irish colony from 1974 to 2009. Despite lower recapture probabilities of monel‐ringed Irish birds compared with colour‐ringed Scottish birds, survival probability decreased at both colonies. The extent to which the decline in survival is related to density‐dependent processes or other external drivers remains uncertain, but our results suggest that these changes in survival are possibly indicative of larger‐scale processes and are not confined to local colony dynamics.     

Apparent survival of an Arctic‐breeding migratory bird over 44 years of fluctuating population size

Following increases in numbers during the second half of the 20th century, several Arctic‐breeding migrant bird species are now undergoing sustained population declines. These include the northwest European population of Bewick's Swan Cygnus columbianus bewickii, which declined from c. 29 000 birds on the wintering grounds in 1995 to 18 000 in 2010. It is unclear whether this decrease reflects reduced survival, emigration to a different area, or a combination of both. Furthermore, the environmental drivers of any demographic changes are also unknown. We therefore used an information‐theoretic approach in RMark to analyse a dataset of 3929 individually marked and resighted Bewick's Swans to assess temporal trends and drivers of survival between the winters of 1970/71 and 2014/2015, while accounting for effects of age, sex and different marker types. The temporal trend in apparent survival rates over our study period was best explained by different survival rates for each decade, with geometric mean survival rates highest in the 1980s (leg‐ring marked birds = 0.853, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.830–0.873) and lowest in the 2010s (leg‐ring = 0.773, 95% CI 0.738–0.805; neck‐collar = 0.725, 95% CI 0.681–0.764). Mean (±95% CI) resighting probabilities over the study period were higher for birds marked with neck‐collars (0.91 ± 0.01) than for those marked with leg‐rings (0.70 ± 0.02). Weather conditions in different areas across the flyway, food resources on the winter grounds, density‐dependence and the growth of numbers at a relatively new wintering site (the Evros Delta in Greece) all performed poorly as explanatory variables of apparent survival. None of our 18 covariates accounted for more than 7.2% of the deviance associated with our survival models, with a mean of only 2.2% of deviance explained. Our results provide long‐term demographic information needed to help conservationists understand the population dynamics of Bewick's Swans in northwest Europe.     

Evidence of reduced individual heterogeneity in adult survival of long‐lived species

The canalization hypothesis postulates that the rate at which trait variation generates variation in the average individual fitness in a population determines how buffered traits are against environmental and genetic factors. The ranking of a species on the slow‐fast continuum – the covariation among life‐history traits describing species‐specific life cycles along a gradient going from a long life, slow maturity, and low annual reproductive output, to a short life, fast maturity, and high annual reproductive output – strongly correlates with the relative fitness impact of a given amount of variation in adult survival. Under the canalization hypothesis, long‐lived species are thus expected to display less individual heterogeneity in survival at the onset of adulthood, when reproductive values peak, than short‐lived species. We tested this life‐history prediction by analysing long‐term time series of individual‐based data in nine species of birds and mammals using capture‐recapture models. We found that individual heterogeneity in survival was higher in species with short‐generation time (< 3 years) than in species with long generation time (> 4 years). Our findings provide the first piece of empirical evidence for the canalization hypothesis at the individual level from the wild.     

Non-interactive effects of habitat complexity and adult crayfish on survival and growth of juvenile crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus)

1.  In a 1-month outdoor stream channel experiment, we investigated the relative importance of habitat complexity (i.e. cobbled area) and the presence of adult signal crayfish ( Pacifastacus leniusculus ) males on the survival and growth of juveniles.
2.  In treatments with high habitat complexity, more juveniles survived, more were newly moulted and they had a higher specific growth rate (SGR) at the end of the experiment than juveniles in treatments with low habitat complexity. The presence of adult males did not affect survival, moulting stage or growth of the juveniles.
3.  The presence of adult males decreased juvenile activity during night. Juveniles in treatments with low habitat complexity were more active than juveniles in high habitat complexity during both day and night.
4.  There was no difference in total invertebrate biomass between treatments. However, some invertebrate taxa, such as Chironomidae larvae, were affected by habitat complexity or the presence of adult crayfish. Juvenile crayfish in all channels had consumed detritus, algae and Chironomidae larvae and there were no differences in gut contents or stable isotope signals (carbon and nitrogen) between treatments, indicating a similar diet among the juveniles across treatments. However, the biomass of chironomids was significantly higher in channels with adult crayfish present, indicating a decreased consumption of chironomids by juveniles in the presence of adults.
5.  Our results suggest that the recruitment of juvenile crayfish is mostly affected by habitat complexity. The competition for food and shelter and aggressive interactions between the juveniles were most pronounced in low habitat complexity, indicating that habitats with a good access to shelter will enhance recruitment of juvenile crayfish in streams.     

High juvenile annual survival probabilities in Southern Rockhopper Penguins Eudyptes chrysocome are independent of individual fledging traits

Juvenile survival is an important demographic parameter. Southern Rockhopper Penguins Eudyptes chrysocome have undergone a dramatic population decline in the past century across their distribution, but the demographic processes are poorly understood. To estimate juvenile annual survival probabilities, Rockhopper Penguin chicks from two cohorts on New Island, Falkland Islands, were marked with transponders and recorded in subsequent years using an automated gateway. We first estimated annual survival and detection probabilities using a Cormack‐Jolly‐Seber (CJS) model, and found that both probabilities were extremely high (81% in the first and 98% in the second, third and fourth years of life), even in comparison with adult birds. Because detection probability after 3 years was effectively 1, and our sample size (n = 114) was too small to explore the effects of individual traits on survival in a CJS model, we assessed whether sex, cohort, body mass and laying sequence affected whether juveniles returned to the colony during their first 3 years of life using a simple generalized linear model that assumed perfect detection. Juveniles from the first cohort and males showed a higher return probability than juveniles from the second cohort and females. There was no clear effect of fledging body mass on return rate, probably related to the favourable environmental conditions during the study period. The laying sequence did not markedly affect the return probability of chicks, indicating that, once fledged, first‐laid A‐chicks have the same probability to return as second‐laid B‐chicks despite a much larger initial maternal investment in B‐eggs in this species. This study demonstrates extraordinarily high juvenile survival probabilities and will help to understand the recent changes in the population dynamics of the Falkland Islands Southern Rockhopper Penguins.     

Patterns of natural selection on size at metamorphosis in water frogs

Strategies for optimal metamorphosis are key adaptations in organisms with complex life cycles, and the components of the larval growth environment causing variation in this trait are well studied empirically and theoretically. However, when relating these findings to a broader evolutionary or ecological context, usually the following assumptions are made: (1) size at metamorphosis positively relates to future fitness, and (2) the larval growth environment affects fitness mainly through its effect on timing of and size at metamorphosis. These assumptions remain poorly tested, because data on postmetamorphic fitness components are still rare. We created variation in timing of and size at metamorphosis by manipulating larval competition, nonlethal presence of predators, pond drying, and onset of larval development, and measured the consequences for subsequent terrestrial survival and growth in 1564 individually marked water frogs (Rana lessonae and R. esculenta), raised in enclosures in their natural environment. Individuals metamorphosing at a large size had an increased chance of survival during the following terrestrial stage (mean linear selection gradient: 0.09), grew faster and were larger at maturity than individuals metamorphosing at smaller sizes. Late metamorphosing individuals had a lower survival rate (mean linear selection gradient: -0.03) and grew more slowly than early metamorphosing ones. We found these patterns to be consistent over the three years of the study and the two species, and the results did not depend on the nature of the larval growth manipulation. Furthermore, individuals did not compensate for a small size at metamorphosis by enhancing their postmetamorphic growth. Thus, we found simple relationships between larval growth and postmetamorphic fitness components, and support for this frequently made assumption. Our results suggest postmetamorphic selection for fast larval growth and provide a quantitative estimate for the water frog example.     

Climate change,phenology, and habitat degradation: drivers of gosling body condition and juvenile survival in lesser snow geese

Nesting migratory geese are among the dominant herbivores in (sub) arctic environments, which have undergone unprecedented increases in temperatures and plant growing days over the last three decades. Within these regions, the Hudson Bay Lowlands are home to an overabundant breeding population of lesser snow geese that has dramatically damaged the ecosystem, with cascading effects at multiple trophic levels. In some areas the overabundance of geese has led to a drastic reduction in available forage. In addition, warming of this region has widened the gap between goose migration timing and plant green‐up, and this ‘mismatch’ between goose and plant phenologies could in turn affect gosling development. The dual effects of climate change and habitat quality on gosling body condition and juvenile survival are not known, but are critical for predicting population growth and related degradation of (sub) arctic ecosystems. To address these issues, we used information on female goslings marked and measured between 1978 and 2005 (4125 individuals). Goslings that developed within and near the traditional center of the breeding colony experienced the effects of long‐term habitat degradation: body condition and juvenile survival declined over time. In newly colonized areas, however, we observed the opposite pattern (increase in body condition and juvenile survival). In addition, warmer than average winters and summers resulted in lower gosling body condition and first‐year survival. Too few plant ‘growing days’ in the spring relative to hatch led to similar results. Our assessment indicates that geese are recovering from habitat degradation by moving to newly colonized locales. However, a warmer climate could negatively affect snow goose populations in the long‐run, but it will depend on which seasons warm the fastest. These antagonistic mechanisms will require further study to help predict snow goose population dynamics and manage the trophic cascade they induce.     

Long-term evaluation of body mass at weaning and postweaning survival rates of Weddell seals in Erebus Bay, Antarctica

Variability in juvenile survival rate is expected to be an important component of the dynamics of long-lived animal populations. Across a range of species, individual variation in juvenile body mass has been shown to be an important cause of variation in fates of juveniles. Our goal in this paper was to estimate age-specific apparent survival rates for Weddell seals ( Leptonychotes weddellii ) in Erebus Bay, Antarctica, and to investigate hypotheses about relationships between body mass at weaning and apparent survival rate for juveniles. Mark–resighting models found average apparent juvenile survival rate (survival from weaning to age 3) was similar between males and females, and revealed positive relationships between body mass at weaning and apparent juvenile survival rate. The effects of body mass on juvenile survival rate differed between the sexes and the relationship between body mass and survival rate was stronger in males. These results indicate that the magnitude of energy transferred from mother to pup during lactation likely has important consequences on offspring survival rate and maternal fitness.     

Effect of sex and bright coloration on survival and predator‐induced wing damage in an aposematic lantern fly with startle display

1. Aposematic coloration in prey promotes its survival by conspicuously advertising unpalatability to predators. Although classical examples of aposematic signals involve constant presentation of a signal at a distance, some animals suddenly display warning colours only when they are attacked. 2. Characteristics of body parts suddenly displayed, such as conspicuous coloration or eyespot pattern, may increase the survival of the prey by startling the predator, and/or by signalling unpalatability to the predators at the moment of attack. 3. The adaptive value of such colour patterns suddenly displayed by unpalatable prey has not been studied. We experimentally blackened the red patch in the conspicuous red–white–black hindwing pattern displayed by an unpalatable insect Lycorma delicatula White (Hemiptera: Fulgoridae) in response to predator's attack. 4. There was no evidence that the presence of the red patch increased prey survival over several weeks. We hypothesise that predators generalised from the red–white–black patches on the hindwings of unpalatable L. delicatula to any similar wing display as a signal of unpalatability. Because a higher proportion of males than females stay put at their resting sites, displaying their wings in response to repeated attacks by predators, wing damage was more frequent in males than in females. 5. To our knowledge, this is the first experimental test of an adaptive role of aposematic signals presented by unpalatable prey during sudden displays triggered by direct predatory attack.     

Using incidental mark‐encounter data to improve survival estimation

1. Obtaining robust survival estimates is critical, but sample size limitations often result in imprecise estimates or the failure to obtain estimates for population subgroups. Concurrently, data are often recorded on incidental reencounters of marked individuals, but these incidental data are often unused in survival analyses.
2. We evaluated the utility of supplementing a traditional survival dataset with incidental data on marked individuals that were collected ad hoc. We used a continuous time‐to‐event exponential survival model to leverage the matching information contained in both datasets and assessed differences in survival among adult and juvenile and resident and translocated Mojave desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii).
3. Incorporation of the incidental mark‐encounter data improved precision of all annual survival point estimates, with a 3.4%–37.5% reduction in the spread of the 95% Bayesian credible intervals. We were able to estimate annual survival for three subgroup combinations that were previously inestimable. Point estimates between the radiotelemetry and combined datasets were within |0.029| percentage points of each other, suggesting minimal to no bias induced by the incidental data.
4. Annual survival rates were high (>0.89) for resident adult and juvenile tortoises in both study sites and for translocated adults in the southern site. Annual survival rates for translocated juveniles at both sites and translocated adults in the northern site were between 0.73 and 0.76. At both sites, translocated adults and juveniles had significantly lower survival than resident adults. High mortality in the northern site was driven primarily by a single pulse in mortalities.
5. Using exponential survival models to leverage matching information across traditional survival studies and incidental data on marked individuals may serve as a useful tool to improve the precision and estimability of survival rates. This can improve the efficacy of understanding basic population ecology and population monitoring for imperiled species.

     

Seasonal abundance and adult survival of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in a community that cooperatively forages with fishermen in southern Brazil

A subgroup of a population of Tursiops truncatus in southern Brazil is known for a cooperative behavior with artisanal fishermen whereby the dolphins shoal fish towards net‐casting fishermen. Combining photo‐identification data collected between September 2007 and 2009 with mark‐recapture and Pollock's robust design models, we assessed abundance within seasons and survival and temporary emigration rates of dolphins between seasons. We also reanalyzed a previous data set collected during 1989–1991, and Cormack‐Jolly‐Seber models were applied to estimate survival rates for each of the study periods. The abundance of marked “cooperative” dolphins varied between seasons from 18 (CI: 17–24) to 21 (CI: 20–24). The total abundance varied from 59 in the winter of 2008 (CI: 49–72) to 50 in the autumn of 2009 (CI: 40–62). The annual adult survival was estimated to be 0.917 (CI: 0.876–0.961), close to that estimated from data collected in the 1990s (0.941; CI: 0.888–0.998). The emigration probability was low (0.031; CI: 0.011–0.084) and different capture probabilities between the “cooperative” and “noncooperative” dolphins indicated a degree of behavioral segregation. The precision of our estimates is likely to provide sufficient power to detect population change, but we recommend a precautionary management approach to protect this vulnerable dolphin community and its unique cooperative feeding tradition.     

Age‐dependent breeding dispersal and adult survival within a metapopulation of Common Terns Sterna hirundo

Dispersal is increasingly recognized as a process of fundamental importance in population dynamics and other aspects of biology. Concurrently, interest in age‐dependent effects on survival, including actuarial senescence, has increased, especially in studies of long‐lived seabirds. Nevertheless, datasets necessary for studying dispersal and age‐dependent effects are few, as these require simultaneous data collection at two or more sites over many years. We conducted a 22‐year capture‐mark‐recapture study of Common Terns Sterna hirundo at three breeding colonies 10–26 km apart in Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts, USA. All birds in the study were of known age (range 2–28 years, median 7 years, n = 3290) and 77% were of known sex. Estimates of adult recapture, survival and breeding dispersal rates were obtained for all age‐classes from 2 to 20 years. The model that acquired 100% of the QAIC_c (Akaike's Information Criterion adjusted for small sample size and overdispersion) weight in our analysis included age‐specificity in all parameters but no relationship with sex. Our study may be the first to demonstrate age‐specificity in recapture, survival and breeding dispersal rates simultaneously, using a single model. Annual rates of breeding dispersal ranged from <0.01 to 0.27, with a population‐weighted mean of 0.065; they decreased with increasing distance between colony sites and, unexpectedly, increased with age. Breeding dispersal did not increase consistently after years with predation on adults or after an attempt to displace birds from an oiled site. Survival rates did not vary among sites or years. Annual adult survival increased from 0.80 in 2‐year‐old birds to a maximum of approximately 0.88 around age 8 years and then declined to 0.76 at age 20 years, yielding strong evidence for actuarial senescence. The peak annual survival rate of 0.88 is at the low end of other estimates for Common Tern and in the lower part of the range recorded for other terns, but total numbers in the three colonies increased seven‐fold during the study. This was part of a slower increase in the regional population, with net immigration into the study colonies. Our results demonstrate the biological significance of breeding dispersal in local population dynamics and age‐related effects on survival and dispersal from a metapopulation of a long‐lived seabird.     

估计粉虱若虫存活数量的新方法——氧化镁薄板法

介绍一种估计粉虱若虫存活数的简易方法。粉虱若虫分泌的蜜露滴落在氧化镁薄板上后形成清晰的圆坑,在体视显微镜下易于观察和计数,在确定粉虱若虫数量(Nd)和平均蜜露数(Nn)存在线性相关后,相应得出若虫数量评估因子(NEF)=Nn/Nd,提出通过蜜露数和若虫数量评估因子估算若虫数量的方法。在蕃茄叶片上,烟粉虱Bemisia tabaci(Gennadius)1~2龄若虫、3~4龄若虫和温室白粉虱Trialeurodes vaporariorum(Westwood)1~2龄若虫、3~4龄若虫的数量评估因子NEF分别为7·73,5·69,5·18和5·03。应用该方法检测吡虫啉对粉虱的毒力,并与传统方法进行比较,两者没有显著差异,而且该方法更简便准确。     

Using otolith chemical and structural analysis to investigate reservoir habitat use by juvenile Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha

Isotopic composition of ⁸⁷Sr:⁸⁶Sr and natural elemental tracers (Sr, Ba, Mg, Mn and Ca) were quantified from otoliths in juvenile and adult Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha to assess the ability of otolith microchemistry and microstructure to reconstruct juvenile O. tshawytscha rearing habitat and growth. Daily increments were measured to assess relative growth between natal rearing habitats. Otolith microchemistry was able to resolve juvenile habitat use between reservoir and natal tributary rearing habitats (within headwater basins), but not among catchments. Results suggest that 90% (n = 18) of sampled non‐hatchery adults returning to the Middle Fork Willamette River were reared in a reservoir and 10% (n = 2) in natal tributary habitat upstream from the reservoir. Juveniles collected in reservoirs had higher growth rates than juveniles reared in natal streams. The results demonstrate the utility of otolith microchemistry and microstructure to distinguish among rearing habitats, including habitats in highly altered systems.