Environmental variation, fluctuating selection and genetic drift in subdivided populations

Although there have many studies of the population genetical consequences of environmental variation, little is known about the combined effects of genetic drift and fluctuating selection in structured populations. Here we use diffusion theory to investigate the effects of temporally and spatially varying selection on a population of haploid individuals subdivided into a large number of demes. Using a perturbation method for processes with multiple time scales, we show that as the number of demes tends to infinity, the overall frequency converges to a diffusion process that is also the diffusion approximation for a finite, panmictic population subject to temporally fluctuating selection. We find that the coefficients of this process have a complicated dependence on deme size and migration rate, and that changes in these demographic parameters can determine both the balance between the dispersive and stabilizing effects of environmental variation and whether selection favors alleles with lower or higher fitness variance.     

The G matrix under fluctuating correlational mutation and selection

Theoretical quantitative genetics provides a framework for reconstructing past selection and predicting future patterns of phenotypic differentiation. However, the usefulness of the equations of quantitative genetics for evolutionary inference relies on the evolutionary stability of the additive genetic variance-covariance matrix (G matrix). A fruitful new approach for exploring the evolutionary dynamics of G involves the use of individual-based computer simulations. Previous studies have focused on the evolution of the eigenstructure of G. An alternative approach employed in this paper uses the multivariate response-to-selection equation to evaluate the stability of G. In this approach, I measure similarity by the correlation between response-to-selection vectors due to random selection gradients. I analyze the dynamics of G under several conditions of correlational mutation and selection. As found in a previous study, the eigenstructure of G is stabilized by correlational mutation and selection. However, over broad conditions, instability of G did not result in a decreased consistency of the response to selection. I also analyze the stability of G when the correlation coefficients of correlational mutation and selection and the effective population size change through time. To my knowledge, no prior study has used computer simulations to investigate the stability of G when correlational mutation and selection fluctuate. Under these conditions, the eigenstructure of G is unstable under some simulation conditions. Different results are obtained if G matrix stability is assessed by eigenanalysis or by the response to random selection gradients. In this case, the response to selection is most consistent when certain aspects of the eigenstructure of G are least stable and vice versa.     

The interaction between mobile DNAs and their hosts in a fluctuating environment

The interaction between mobile DNA sequences and their hosts raises important questions in the context of hosts which reproduce clonally with only rare horizontal transmission between clones. The activity of some mobile DNAs as reversible mutators of genes raises the possibility that, in a fluctuating environment, cells may gain an advantage if they have mobile DNAs which mutate genes whose inactivation is favoured in one of the environments that the population encounters. Here we analyse a model of this process and ask what would be the optimal rate of transposition in a population whose elements are maintained by this mechanism. We also examine the impact of horizontal transfer on such a population. With movement of elements between cells, we can imagine elements with differing rates of transposition and host cells with differing rates of transposition. We find that evolution in the population of elements favours a rapid rate of transposition, and evolution of the host cells favours cells in which this rapid rate of element-dependent transposition results in an optimal rate of transposition per cell. However, when horizontal transfer rates are high, some unexpected features of the model are observed. In particular, a polymorphism between cell types (some with an optimal rate of transposition and some with no transposition at all from endogenous elements) can be stably maintained. We consider the possible biological predictions of this analysis.     

The evolution of genetic canalization under fluctuating selection

Abstract.— If the direction of selection changes from generation to generation, the ability to respond to selection is maladaptive: the response to selection in one generation leads to reduced fitness in the next. Because the response is determined by the amount of genetic variance expressed at the phenotypic level, rapidly fluctuating selection should favor modifier genes that reduce the phenotypic effect of alleles segregating at structural loci underlying the trait. Such reduction in phenotypic expression of genetic variation has been named "genetic canalization." I support this argument with a series of two- and multilocus models with alternating linear selection and Gaussian selection with fluctuating optimum. A canalizing modifier gene affects the fitness of its carriers in three ways: (1) it reduces the phenotypic consequences of genetic response to previous selection; (2) it reduces the genetic response to selection, which is manifested as linkage disequilibrium between the modifier and structural loci; and (3) it reduces the phenotypic variance. The first two effects reduce fitness under directional selection sustained for several generations, but improve fitness when the direction of selection has just been reversed. The net effect tends to favor a canalizing modifier under rapidly fluctuating selection regimes (period of eight generations or less). The third effect improves fitness of the modifier allele if the fitness function is convex and reduces it if the function is concave. Under fluctuating Gaussian selection, the population is more likely to experience the concave portion of the fitness function when selection is stronger. Therefore, only weak to moderately strong fluctuating Gaussian selection favors genetic canalization. This paper considerably broadens the conditions that favor genetic canalization, which so far has only been postulated to evolve under long-term stabilizing selection.     

Stability of the G-matrix in a population experiencing pleiotropic mutation, stabilizing selection, and genetic drift

Abstract. Quantitative genetics theory provides a framework that predicts the effects of selection on a phenotype consisting of a suite of complex traits. However, the ability of existing theory to reconstruct the history of selection or to predict the future trajectory of evolution depends upon the evolutionary dynamics of the genetic variance-covariance matrix (G-matrix). Thus, the central focus of the emerging field of comparative quantitative genetics is the evolution of the G-matrix. Existing analytical theory reveals little about the dynamics of G, because the problem is too complex to be mathematically tractable. As a first step toward a predictive theory of G-matrix evolution, our goal was to use stochastic computer models to investigate factors that might contribute to the stability of G over evolutionary time. We were concerned with the relatively simple case of two quantitative traits in a population experiencing stabilizing selection, pleiotropic mutation, and random genetic drift. Our results show that G-matrix stability is enhanced by strong correlational selection and large effective population size. In addition, the nature of mutations at pleiotropic loci can dramatically influence stability of G. In particular, when a mutation at a single locus simultaneously changes the value of the two traits (due to pleiotropy) and these effects are correlated, mutation can generate extreme stability of G. Thus, the central message of our study is that the empirical question regarding G-matrix stability is not necessarily a general question of whether G is stable across various taxonomic levels. Rather, we should expect the G-matrix to be extremely stable for some suites of characters and unstable for others over similar spans of evolutionary time.     

Comparing the effects of genetic drift and fluctuating selection on genotype frequency changes in the scarlet tiger moth

One of the recurring arguments in evolutionary biology is whether evolution occurs principally through natural selection or through neutral processes such as genetic drift. A 60-year-long time series of changes in the genotype frequency of a colour polymorphism of the scarlet tiger moth, Callimorpha dominula, was used to compare the relative effects of genetic drift and variable natural selection. The analysis showed that most of the variation in frequency was the result of genetic drift. In addition, although selection was acting, mean fitness barely increased. This supports the 'Red Queen's hypothesis' that long-term improvements in fitness may not occur, because populations have to keep pace with changes in the environment.     

A genetic model with mutation and selection

Two deterministic models of a multiallele population in which mutation and selection both operate are considered, and formulae for the gene frequencies are obtained. Both models are of a diploid population in which selection is additive and mutation is general; generations are discrete and nonoverlapping. In the first model, the stationary solution of the discrete equations is found. In the second, the discrete time process is approximated by a continuous time one, and the resulting differential equations are solved. The transient case for two alleles is solved explicitly, and the results are graphed. An application is given to sequences of sites.     

Sex: differences in mutation, recombination, selection, gene flow, and genetic drift

In many instances, there are large sex differences in mutation rates, recombination rates, selection, rates of gene flow, and genetic drift. Mutation rates are often higher in males, a difference that has been estimated both directly and indirectly. The higher male mutation rate appears related to the larger number of cell divisions in male lineages but mutation rates also appear gene- and organism-specific. When there is recombination in only one sex, it is always the homogametic sex. When there is recombination in both sexes, females often have higher recombination but there are many exceptions. There are a number of hypotheses to explain the sex differences in recombination. Sex-specific differences in selection may result in stable polymorphisms or for sex chromosomes, faster evolutionary change. In addition, sex-dependent selection may result in antagonistic pleiotropy or sexually antagonistic genes. There are many examples of sex-specific differences in gene flow (dispersal) and a number of adaptive explanations for these differences. The overall effective population size (genetic drift) is dominated by the lower sex-specific effective population size. The mean of the mutation, recombination, and gene flow rates over the two sexes can be used in a population genetics context unless there are sex-specific differences in selection or genetic drift. Sex-specific differences in these evolutionary factors appear to be unrelated to each other. The evolutionary explanations for sex-specific differences for each factor are multifaceted and, in addition, explanations may include chance, nonadaptive differences, or mechanistic, nonevolutionary factors.     

The divergence of a polygenic system subject to stabilizing selection, mutation and drift

Polygenic variation can be maintained by a balance between mutation and stabilizing selection. When the alleles responsible for variation are rare, many classes of equilibria may be stable. The rate at which drift causes shifts between equilibria is investigated by integrating the gene frequency distribution W2N II (pq)4N mu-1. This integral can be found exactly, by numerical integration, or can be approximated by assuming that the full distribution of allele frequencies is approximately Gaussian. These methods are checked against simulations. Over a wide range of population sizes, drift will keep the population near an equilibrium which minimizes the genetic variance and the deviation from the selective optimum. Shifts between equilibria in this class occur at an appreciable rate if the product of population size and selection on each locus is small (Ns alpha 2 less than 10). The Gaussian approximation is accurate even when the underlying distribution is strongly skewed. Reproductive isolation evolves as populations shift to new combinations of alleles: however, this process is slow, approaching the neutral rate (approximately mu) in small populations.     

The allele-frequency spectrum in a decoupled Moran model with mutation, drift, and directional selection, assuming small mutation rates

We analyze a decoupled Moran model with haploid population size N, a biallelic locus under mutation and drift with scaled forward and backward mutation rates θ₁=μ₁N and θ₀=μ₀N, and directional selection with scaled strength γ=sN. With small scaled mutation rates θ₀ and θ₁, which is appropriate for single nucleotide polymorphism data in highly recombining regions, we derive a simple approximate equilibrium distribution for polymorphic alleles with a constant of proportionality. We also put forth an even simpler model, where all mutations originate from monomorphic states. Using this model we derive the sojourn times, conditional on the ancestral and fixed allele, and under equilibrium the distributions of fixed and polymorphic alleles and fixation rates. Furthermore, we also derive the distribution of small samples in the diffusion limit and provide convenient recurrence relations for calculating this distribution. This enables us to give formulas analogous to the Ewens-Watterson estimator of θ for biased mutation rates and selection. We apply this theory to a polymorphism dataset of fourfold degenerate sites in Drosophila melanogaster.     

Cumulant dynamics of a population under multiplicative selection, mutation, and drift

We revisit the classical population genetics model of a population evolving under multiplicative selection, mutation, and drift. The number of beneficial alleles in a multilocus system can be considered a trait under exponential selection. Equations of motion are derived for the cumulants of the trait distribution in the diffusion limit and under the assumption of linkage equilibrium. Because of the additive nature of cumulants, this reduces to the problem of determining equations of motion for the expected allele distribution cumulants at each locus. The cumulant equations form an infinite dimensional linear system and in an authored appendix Adam Prügel-Bennett provides a closed form expression for these equations. We derive approximate solutions which are shown to describe the dynamics well for a broad range of parameters. In particular, we introduce two approximate analytical solutions: (1) Perturbation theory is used to solve the dynamics for weak selection and arbitrary mutation rate. The resulting expansion for the system's eigenvalues reduces to the known diffusion theory results for the limiting cases with either mutation or selection absent. (2) For low mutation rates we observe a separation of time-scales between the slowest mode and the rest which allows us to develop an approximate analytical solution for the dominant slow mode. The solution is consistent with the perturbation theory result and provides a good approximation for much stronger selection intensities.     

The evolution of mate choice in a fluctuating environment

This paper analyzes the evolutionary dynamics of a locus controlling the degree of female mating preference in a temporally fluctuating environment. Preference for mating with males with respect to their genotypes at a locus that is subject to temporally varying natural selection pressure is considered first. With weak selection and free recombination between the choice locus and the selected locus, preference for mating with heterozygotes appears to be favored. With strong selection, preference for homozygous mates may be favored. In each case, choice alleles may increase from very low initial frequencies to near fixation, in contrast to previous models of mate choice in varying environments. Linkages between the two loci has complex effects on the strength and direction of selection for mate choice. Preference for mating with males with the currently fitter genotypes at the locus under natural selection is also modelled. Provided that the environmental period is not too short, a rare allele conferring such preference may be favored and spread to fixation. Strong natural selection, tight linkage and a short environmental period may produce polymorphism for the level of mate choice.     

Escaping an evolutionary lobster trap: drug resistance and compensatory mutation in a fluctuating environment

The fitness landscape concept aids intuition on adaptive evolution through low fitness genotypes. Evolutionary processes become complex when environments and therefore fitnesses fluctuate. Antibiotic resistance evolution in bacteria is an important example of such dynamics. Resistance bears a cost in the drug-free environment, but compensatory mutation can lower this cost, creating a fitness valley. With the drug present, the valley becomes a hill that is easily climbed. Once a population is dominated by resistant-compensated genotypes, reversion to sensitivity is difficult: this phenomenon has been described as an evolutionary lobster trap. With increasing frequencies of drug resistance among pathogenic bacteria, it is critical to understand how this trap can be escaped. Here, we develop stochastic models to investigate these dynamics. The residual fitness cost (the cost remaining after compensatory mutation has occurred) is a key parameter. Reversion to sensitivity is favored when the time spent in the absence of the drug relative to its presence is high compared to the residual fitness cost. Population sizes are also important: in large populations, resistant-compensated mutants appear in resistant-uncompensated or sensitive-compensated genotypes without fixation of these intermediates. This stochastic tunneling effect occurs when sufficient time is allowed by the rates of environmental fluctuation.     

Group selection, individual selection, and the evolution of genetic drift.

In a subdivided population, genetic drift affects variation between groups, and thus it can have an important effect on the outcome of evolution (Wright, 1978). The rate of genetic drift is determined, in part, by the behaviour of population members. This paper presents three mathematical models in which behavioural traits that affect the rate of genetic drift are allowed to coevolve with traits that are under selection at the group and individual levels. The results show that if group selection is strong relative to individual selection, then behavioural traits that enhance the rate of genetic drift will tend to increase in frequency. The strength of this effect depends, in part, on the way in which vacant sites are colonized.     

Random genetic drift and selection in a triallelic locus: a continuous diffusion model.

The Kolmogorov forward diffusion equation is used to examine the evolution of three alleles at one locus under viability selection and random genetic drift. Separation of variables and Chebyschev approximations are employed to solve this equation for long times. As an example, one artificial viability set is examined in detail; its general implications for the evolution at a triallelic locus are discussed.     

Molecular markers to study genetic drift and selection in wheat populations

Studying the heterogeneity in variation of gene frequency among populations or between generations may be a possible way to detect genomic regions experiencing selection. In order to evaluate this approach, RFLP markers were used to compare the allelic frequencies in wheat populations that had been submitted to natural selection. In 1984, samples of two composite cross populations were distributed in the French network for dynamic management of genetic resources. Since then, all the sub-populations have been cultivated in the same sites with no human selection. The strong differentiation between populations found for agro-morphological traits (earliness, resistance to pathogens, ...) provided evidence of their adaptation to local conditions. The two initial populations and six derived sub-populations cultivated for 10 years in four contrasted sites were studied with RFLP markers. Differentiation between sub-populations based on RFLP diversity was highly significant. Variations on allelic frequencies of the 30 loci scored were found to be much greater than expected under genetic drift only. This led us to conclude that selection greatly influenced the evolution of the populations. Some of the loci clearly presented a higher differentiation than the others. This might indicate that they were genetically linked to other loci polymorphic in the populations and involved in adaptation. However, the effect of one selected gene on a marker, even located very close to the gene, could not be predicted with certainty. Hence, though the populations were predominantly selfing, it seems that initial linkage disequilibriums between markers and selected genes were not strong enough to control closely the evolution of allelic frequencies at the markers.     

Exact moment calculations for genetic models with migration,mutation, and drift

Using properties of moment stationarity we develop exact expressions for the mean and covariance of allele frequencies at a single locus for a set of populations subject to drift, mutation, and migration. Some general results can be obtained even for arbitrary mutation and migration matrices, for example: (1) Under quite general conditions, the mean vector depends only on mutation rates, not on migration rates or the number of populations. (2) Allele frequencies covary among all pairs of populations connected by migration. As a result, the drift, mutation, migration process is not ergodic when any finite number of populations is exchanging genes. In addition, we provide closed-form expressions for the mean and covariance of allele frequencies in Wright's finite-island model of migration under several simple models of mutation, and we show that the correlation in allele frequencies among populations can be very large for realistic rates of mutation unless an enormous number of populations are exchanging genes. As a result, the traditional diffusion approximation provides a poor approximation of the stationary distribution of allele frequencies among populations. Finally, we discuss some implications of our results for measures of population structure based on Wright's F-statistics.     

Evolution of size-dependent flowering in a variable environment: partitioning the effects of fluctuating selection

In a stochastic environment, two distinct processes, namely nonlinear averaging and non-equilibrium dynamics, influence fitness. We develop methods for decomposing the effects of temporal variation in demography into contributions from nonlinear averaging and non-equilibrium dynamics. We illustrate the approach using Carlina vulgaris, a monocarpic species in which recruitment, growth and survival all vary from year to year. In Carlina the absolute effect of temporal variation on the evolutionarily stable flowering strategy is substantial (ca. 50% of the evolutionarily stable flowering size) but the net effect is much smaller (ca. 10%) because the effects of temporal variation do not influence the evolutionarily stable strategy in the same direction.     

Advantage of storage in a fluctuating environment

We will elaborate the evolutionary course of an ecosystem consisting of a population in a chemostat environment with periodically fluctuating nutrient supply. The organisms that make up the population consist of structural biomass and energy storage compartments. In a constant chemostat environment a species without energy storage always out-competes a species with energy reserves. This hinders evolution of species with storage from those without storage. Using the adaptive dynamics approach for non-equilibrium ecological systems we will show that in a fluctuating environment there are multiple stable evolutionary singular strategies (ss's): one for a species without, and one for a species with energy storage. The evolutionary end-point depends on the initial evolutionary state. We will formulate the invasion fitness in terms of Floquet multipliers for the oscillating non-autonomous system. Bifurcation theory is used to study points where due to evolutionary development by mutational steps, the long-term dynamics of the ecological system changes qualitatively. To that end, at the ecological time scale, the trait value at which invasion of a mutant into a resident population becomes possible can be calculated using numerical bifurcation analysis where the trait is used as the free parameter, because it is just a bifurcation point. In a constant environment there is a unique stable equilibrium for one species following the "competitive exclusion" principle. In contrast, due to the oscillatory dynamics on the ecological time scale two species may coexist. That is, non-equilibrium dynamics enhances biodiversity. However, we will show that this coexistence is not stable on the evolutionary time scale and always one single species survives.