Re-assessing current extinction rates

There is a widespread belief that we are experiencing a mass extinction event similar in severity to previous mass extinction events in the last 600 million years where up to 95% of species disappeared. This paper reviews evidence for current extinctions and different methods of assessing extinction rates including species–area relationships and loss of tropical forests, changing threat status of species, co-extinction rates and modelling the impact of climate change. For 30 years some have suggested that extinctions through tropical forest loss are occurring at a rate of up to 100 species a day and yet less than 1,200 extinctions have been recorded in the last 400 years. Reasons for low number of identified global extinctions are suggested here and include success in protecting many endangered species, poor monitoring of most of the rest of species and their level of threat, extinction debt where forests have been lost but species still survive, that regrowth forests may be important in retaining ‘old growth’ species, fewer co-extinctions of species than expected, and large differences in the vulnerability of different taxa to extinction threats. More recently, others have suggested similar rates of extinction to earlier estimates but with the key cause of extinction being climate change, and in particular rising temperatures, rather than deforestation alone. Here I suggest that climate change, rather than deforestation is likely to bring about such high levels of extinction since the impacts of climate change are local to global and that climate change is acting synergistically with a range of other threats to biodiversity including deforestation.     

Phylogenetic comparative assembly

Background  

Recent high throughput sequencing technologies are capable of generating a huge amount of data for bacterial genome sequencing projects. Although current sequence assemblers successfully merge the overlapping reads, often several contigs remain which cannot be assembled any further. It is still costly and time consuming to close all the gaps in order to acquire the whole genomic sequence.     

Phylogenetic comparative assembly

Background

Biclustering is an important analysis procedure to understand the biological mechanisms from microarray gene expression data. Several algorithms have been proposed to identify biclusters, but very little effort was made to compare the performance of different algorithms on real datasets and combine the resultant biclusters into one unified ranking.

Results

In this paper we propose differential co-expression framework and a differential co-expression scoring function to objectively quantify quality or goodness of a bicluster of genes based on the observation that genes in a bicluster are co-expressed in the conditions belonged to the bicluster and not co-expressed in the other conditions. Furthermore, we propose a scoring function to stratify biclusters into three types of co-expression. We used the proposed scoring functions to understand the performance and behavior of the four well established biclustering algorithms on six real datasets from different domains by combining their output into one unified ranking.

Conclusions

Differential co-expression framework is useful to provide quantitative and objective assessment of the goodness of biclusters of co-expressed genes and performance of biclustering algorithms in identifying co-expression biclusters. It also helps to combine the biclusters output by different algorithms into one unified ranking i.e. meta-biclustering.     

Phylogenetic methodology for detecting protein interactions

Detecting protein-protein interactions and assigning proteins to functional complexes are key challenges of modern biology. The rise of genomics has lead to evidence that correlated patterns of presence/absence and/or fusing of proteins in any organism suggest these proteins interact. Unfortunately, methods based on such data work best with divergent genomes, whereas major sequencing efforts in vertebrates, for example, are yielding alignments of the same set of proteins sampled from the same set of taxa (species). Using vertebrate mitochondrial genomes to illustrate a novel method, we associate proteins based on vectors of their evolutionary tree edge (branch or internode) lengths. This approach is based on the expectation that molecular coevolution is greatest between proteins that interact in some way. Mitochondrial DNA-encoded proteins are associated into groups largely consistent with the complexes they come from. This association is apparently not due to the tree structure or mutation processes, leaving coevolution as the best explanation. We show that it is important that the tree used to derive the edge-length vector is estimated accurately in terms of both topology and edge lengths. Although more complex substitution models reduce systematic error, they also inflate stochastic error. This makes the use of less complex substitution models preferable in some circumstances. We describe a method to estimate correlations of pairwise evolutionary distances, which adjusts for non-independent correlations due to shared evolutionary history. Associations of proteins based on their edge-length vectors are visualized and assessed using a variety of hierarchical clustering and multidimensional scaling methods. New formula for estimating the fit of data to model, including the average percent standard deviation of distances on least squares trees, are presented. Use of edge-length vectors is compared and contrasted with correlated distance methods, correlated rates methods, and site-specific evidence of coevolution.     

Phylogenetic patterns of colonization and extinction in experimentally assembled plant communities

Background

Evolutionary history has provided insights into the assembly and functioning of plant communities, yet patterns of phylogenetic community structure have largely been based on non-dynamic observations of natural communities. We examined phylogenetic patterns of natural colonization, extinction and biomass production in experimentally assembled communities.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used plant community phylogenetic patterns two years after experimental diversity treatments (1, 2, 4, 8 or 32 species) were discontinued. We constructed a 5-gene molecular phylogeny and statistically compared relatedness of species that colonized or went extinct to remaining community members and patterns of aboveground productivity. Phylogenetic relatedness converged as species-poor plots were colonized and speciose plots experienced extinctions, but plots maintained more differences in composition than in phylogenetic diversity. Successful colonists tended to either be closely or distantly related to community residents. Extinctions did not exhibit any strong relatedness patterns. Finally, plots that increased in phylogenetic diversity also increased in community productivity, though this effect was inseparable from legume colonization, since these colonists tended to be phylogenetically distantly related.

Conclusions

We found that successful non-legume colonists were typically found where close relatives already existed in the sown community; in contrast, successful legume colonists (on their own long branch in the phylogeny) resulted in plots that were colonized by distant relatives. While extinctions exhibited no pattern with respect to relatedness to sown plotmates, extinction plus colonization resulted in communities that converged to similar phylogenetic diversity values, while maintaining differences in species composition.     

Inferring speciation and extinction rates under different sampling schemes

The birth-death process is widely used in phylogenetics to model speciation and extinction. Recent studies have shown that the inferred rates are sensitive to assumptions about the sampling probability of lineages. Here, we examine the effect of the method used to sample lineages. Whereas previous studies have assumed random sampling (RS), we consider two extreme cases of biased sampling: "diversified sampling" (DS), where tips are selected to maximize diversity and "cluster sampling (CS)," where sample diversity is minimized. DS appears to be standard practice, for example, in analyses of higher taxa, whereas CS may occur under special circumstances, for example, in studies of geographically defined floras or faunas. Using both simulations and analyses of empirical data, we show that inferred rates may be heavily biased if the sampling strategy is not modeled correctly. In particular, when a diversified sample is treated as if it were a random or complete sample, the extinction rate is severely underestimated, often close to 0. Such dramatic errors may lead to serious consequences, for example, if estimated rates are used in assessing the vulnerability of threatened species to extinction. Using Bayesian model testing across 18 empirical data sets, we show that DS is commonly a better fit to the data than complete, random, or cluster sampling (CS). Inappropriate modeling of the sampling method may at least partly explain anomalous results that have previously been attributed to variation over time in birth and death rates.     

Correlations in fossil extinction and origination rates through geological time

Recent analyses have suggested that extinction and origination rates exhibit long-range correlations, implying that the fossil record may be controlled by self-organized criticality or other scale-free internal dynamics of the biosphere. Here we directly test for correlations in the fossil record by calculating the autocorrelation of extinction [corrected] and origination rates through time. Our results show that extinction rates are uncorrelated beyond the average duration of a stratigraphic interval. Thus, they lack the long-range correlations predicted by the self-organized criticality hypothesis. In contrast, origination rates show strong autocorrelations due to long-term trends. After detrending, origination rates generally show weak positive correlations at lags of 5-10 million years (Myr) and weak negative correlations at lags of 10-30 Myr, consistent with aperiodic oscillations around their long-term trends. We hypothesize that origination rates are more correlated than extinction rates because originations of new taxa create new ecological niches and new evolutionary pathways for reaching them, thus creating conditions that favour further diversification.     

Phylogenetic comparative approaches for studying niche conservatism

Analyses of phylogenetic niche conservatism (PNC) are becoming increasingly common. However, each analysis makes subtly different assumptions about the evolutionary mechanism that generates patterns of niche conservatism. To understand PNC, analyses should be conducted with reference to a clear underlying model, using appropriate methods. Here, we outline five macroevolutionary models that may underlie patterns of PNC (drift, niche retention, phylogenetic inertia, niche filling/shifting and evolutionary rates) and link these to published phylogenetic comparative methods. For each model, we give recent examples from the literature and suggest how the methods can be practically applied. We hope that this will help clarify the niche conservatism literature and encourage people to think about the evolutionary models underlying niche conservatism in their study group.     

Climate change and elevated extinction rates of reptiles from Mediterranean Islands

Recent climate change has caused the distributions of many species to shift poleward, yet few empirical studies have addressed which species will be vulnerable to longer-term climate changes. To investigate past consequences of climate change, we calculated the population extinction rates of 35 reptile species from 87 Greek land-bridge islands in the Mediterranean that occurred over the past 16,000 years. Population extinction rates were higher for those species that today have more northern distributions. We further found that northern species requiring cool, mesic habitats had less available suitable habitat among islands, implicating loss of suitable habitat in their elevated extinction rates. These extinctions occurred in the context of increasing habitat fragmentation, with islands shrinking and separating as sea levels rose. Thus, the circumstances faced by reptiles on the islands are similar to challenges for numerous species today that must cope with a changing climate while living in an increasingly human-fragmented landscape. Our island-biogeographical approach to investigating historical population extinctions gives insight into the long-term patterns of species responses to climate change.     

Local extinction and the evolution of dispersal rates: causes and correlations

We present the results of individual-based simulation experiments on the evolution of dispersal rates of organisms living in metapopulations. We find conflicting results regarding the relationship between local extinction rate and evolutionarily stable (ES) dispersal rate depending on which principal mechanism causes extinction: if extinction is caused by environmental catastrophes eradicating local populations, we observe a positive correlation between extinction and ES dispersal rate; if extinction is a consequence of stochastic local dynamics and environmental fluctuations, the correlation becomes ambiguous; and in cases where extinction is caused by dispersal mortality, a negative correlation between local extinction rate and ES dispersal rate emerges. We conclude that extinction rate, which both affects and is affected by dispersal rates, is not an ideal predictor for optimal dispersal rates.     

Phylogenetic diversity,functional trait diversity and extinction: avoiding tipping points and worst-case losses

The phylogenetic diversity measure, (‘PD’), measures the relative feature diversity of different subsets of taxa from a phylogeny. At the level of feature diversity, PD supports the broad goal of biodiversity conservation to maintain living variation and option values. PD calculations at the level of lineages and features include those integrating probabilities of extinction, providing estimates of expected PD. This approach has known advantages over the evolutionarily distinct and globally endangered (EDGE) methods. Expected PD methods also have limitations. An alternative notion of expected diversity, expected functional trait diversity, relies on an alternative non-phylogenetic model and allows inferences of diversity at the level of functional traits. Expected PD also faces challenges in helping to address phylogenetic tipping points and worst-case PD losses. Expected PD may not choose conservation options that best avoid worst-case losses of long branches from the tree of life. We can expand the range of useful calculations based on expected PD, including methods for identifying phylogenetic key biodiversity areas.     

Phylogenetic estimation of context-dependent substitution rates by maximum likelihood

Nucleotide substitution in both coding and noncoding regions is context-dependent, in the sense that substitution rates depend on the identity of neighboring bases. Context-dependent substitution has been modeled in the case of two sequences and an unrooted phylogenetic tree, but it has only been accommodated in limited ways with more general phylogenies. In this article, extensions are presented to standard phylogenetic models that allow for better handling of context-dependent substitution, yet still permit exact inference at reasonable computational cost. The new models improve goodness of fit substantially for both coding and noncoding data. Considering context dependence leads to much larger improvements than does using a richer substitution model or allowing for rate variation across sites, under the assumption of site independence. The observed improvements appear to derive from three separate properties of the models: their explicit characterization of context-dependent substitution within N-tuples of adjacent sites, their ability to accommodate overlapping N-tuples, and their rich parameterization of the substitution process. Parameter estimation is accomplished using an expectation maximization algorithm, with a quasi-Newton algorithm for the maximization step; this approach is shown to be preferable to ordinary Newton methods for parameter-rich models. Overlapping tuples are efficiently handled by assuming Markov dependence of the observed bases at each site on those at the N - 1 preceding sites, and the required conditional probabilities are computed with an extension of Felsenstein's algorithm. Estimated substitution rates based on a data set of about 160,000 noncoding sites in mammalian genomes indicate a pronounced CpG effect, but they also suggest a complex overall pattern of context-dependent substitution, comprising a variety of subtle effects. Estimates based on about 3 million sites in coding regions demonstrate that amino acid substitution rates can be learned at the nucleotide level, and suggest that context effects across codon boundaries are significant.     

Population dynamics in variable environments I. Long-run growth rates and extinction

A model of population growth is studied in which the Leslie matrix for each time interval is chosen according to a Markov process. It is shown analytically that the distribution of total population number is lognormal at long times. Measures of population growth are compared and it is shown that a mean logarithmic growth rate and a logarithmic variance effectively describe growth and extinction at long times. Numerical simulations are used to explore the convergence to lognormality and the effects of environmental variance and autocorrelation. The results given apply to other geometric growth models which involve nonnegative growth matrices.     

Molecular evolutionary rates predict both extinction and speciation in temperate angiosperm lineages

Background  

A positive relationship between diversification (i.e., speciation) and nucleotide substitution rates is commonly reported for angiosperm clades. However, the underlying cause of this relationship is often unknown because multiple intrinsic and extrinsic factors can affect the relationship, and these have confounded previous attempts infer causation. Determining which factor drives this oft-reported correlation can lend insight into the macroevolutionary process.     

Phylogenetic comparative analysis of RNA structure on Macintosh computers

A Macintosh Hypertalk program (Hypercard ‘stack’)for use in phylogenetic comparative analysis of RNA structureis described. The program identifies covariations and compensatorychanges in RNA sequence alignments, for use in the constructionof secondary structure models or the identification of tertiaryinteractions. The results of an analysis are presented eitheras a list of positions in the alignment which covary, or asa 2-dimensional matrix in which potential helices in the secondarystructure appear as diagonal patterns. Received on January 7, 1991; accepted on March 19, 1991     

Phylogenetic relationships of ascomycetes and basidiomycetes based on comparative genomics analysis

The relationship between ascomycetes and basidiomycetes, the two main phyla of non-flagellated fungi, has rarely been investigated. In this study, we performed a comparative genomics analysis of genome sequences of 55 ascomycetes and 26 basidiomycetes species and detected 81 universal markers, 875 homologous genes and a conserved contig in the glucose-regulated protein gene. In dendrograms based on simple sequence repeat markers and homologous genes, ascomycetes and basidiomycetes formed distinct clusters, with each set of taxa having a high coefficient of relatedness. Ascomycetes and basidiomycetes also constituted distinct groups in a phylogenetic tree based on a conserved contig in the glucose-regulated protein gene. These results provide evidence that basidiomycetes may be derived from ascomycetes but are definitely genetically differentiated at the genomic level. The phylogenetic relationships of ascomycetes and basidiomycetes uncovered in this study provide new insights for future research related to fungal classification and evolution.