Consequences of ratio-dependent predation by wolves for elk population dynamics

A growing number of studies suggest ratio-dependence may be common in many predator–prey systems, yet in large mammal systems, evidence is limited to wolves and their prey in Isle Royale and Yellowstone. More importantly, the consequences of ratio-dependent predation have not been empirically examined to understand the implications for prey. Wolves recolonized Banff National Park in the early 1980s, and recovery was correlated with significant elk declines. I used time-series data of wolf kill rates of elk, wolf and elk densities in winter from 1985–2007 to test for support for prey-, ratio-, or predator dependent functional and numeric responses of wolf killing rate to elk density. I then combined functional and numeric responses to estimate the total predation response to identify potential equilibrium states. Evidence suggests wolf predation on elk was best described by a type II ratio-dependent functional response and a type II numeric response that lead to inversely density-dependent predation rate on elk. Despite support for ratio-dependence, like other wolf-prey systems, there was considerable uncertainty amongst functional response models, especially at low prey densities. Consistent with predictions from ratio-dependent models, however, wolves contributed to elk population declines of over 80 % in our Banff system. Despite the statistical signature for ratio-dependence, the biological mechanism remains unknown and may be related to multi-prey dynamics in our system. Regardless, ratio-dependent models strike a parsimonious balance between theory and empiricism, and this study suggests that large mammal ecologists need to consider ratio-dependent models in predator–prey dynamics.     

Trophic cascades and trophic trickles in pelagic food webs

Prey-dependent models, with the predation rate (per predator) a function of prey numbers alone, predict the existence of a trophic cascade. In a trophic cascade, the addition of a top predator to a two-level food chain to make a three-level food chain will lead to increases in the population size of the primary producers, and the addition of nutrients to three-level chains will lead to increases in the population numbers at only the first and third trophic levels. In contrast, ratio-dependent models, with the predation rate (per predator) dependent on the ratio of predator numbers to prey, predict that additions of top predators will not increase the population sizes of the primary producers, and that the addition of nutrients to a three-level food chain will lead to increases in population numbers at all trophic levels. Surprisingly, recent meta-analyses show that freshwater pelagic food web patterns match neither prey-dependent models (in pelagic webs, ''prey'' are phytoplankton, and ''predators'' are zooplankton), nor ratio-dependent models. In this paper we use a modification of the prey-dependent model, incorporating strong interference within the zooplankton trophic level, that does yield patterns matching those found in nature. This zooplankton interference model corresponds to a more reticulate food web than in the linear, prey-dependent model, which lacks zooplankton interference. We thus reconcile data with a new model, and make the testable prediction that the strength of trophic cascades will depend on the degree of heterogeneity in the zooplankton level of the food chain.     

Ratio-dependent response of a temperate Australian estuarine system to sustained nitrogen loading

Classical resource- and the less studied ratio-dependent models of predator–prey relationships provide divergent predictions as to the sustained ecological effects of bottom-up forcing. While resource-dependent models, which consider only instantaneous prey density in modelling predator responses, predict community responses that are dependent on the number of trophic levels in a system, ratio-dependent models, which consider the number of prey per consumer, predict proportional increase in each level irrespective of chain length. The two models are only subtly different for systems with two or three trophic levels but in the case of four trophic levels, predict opposite effects of enrichment on primary producers. Despite the poor discriminatory power of tests of the models in systems with two or three trophic levels, field tests in estuarine and marine systems with four trophic levels have been notably absent. Sampling of phytoplankton, macroinvertebrates, invertebrate-feeding fishes, piscivorous fishes in Kooloonbung Creek, Hastings River estuary, eastern Australia, subject to over 20 years of sewage discharge, revealed increased abundances in all four trophic levels at the disturbed location relative to control sites. Increased abundance of phytoplankton at the disturbed site was counter to the predictions of resource-dependent models, which posit a reduction in the first trophic level in response to enrichment. By contrast, the increase in abundance of this first trophic level and the proportionality of increases in abundances of each of the four trophic groups to nitrogen loading provided strong support for ratio dependency. This first evidence of ratio dependence in an estuarine system with four trophic levels not only demonstrates the applicability of ecological theory which seeks to simplify the complexity of systems, but has implications for management. Although large nutrient inputs frequently induce mortality of invertebrates and fish, we have shown that smaller inputs may in fact enhance biomass of all trophic levels.     

Self-organised spatial patterns and chaos in a ratio-dependent predator–prey system

Mechanisms and scenarios of pattern formation in predator–prey systems have been a focus of many studies recently as they are thought to mimic the processes of ecological patterning in real-world ecosystems. Considerable work has been done with regards to both Turing and non-Turing patterns where the latter often appears to be chaotic. In particular, spatiotemporal chaos remains a controversial issue as it can have important implications for population dynamics. Most of the results, however, were obtained in terms of ‘traditional’ predator–prey models where the per capita predation rate depends on the prey density only. A relatively new family of ratio-dependent predator–prey models remains less studied and still poorly understood, especially when space is taken into account explicitly, in spite of their apparent ecological relevance. In this paper, we consider spatiotemporal pattern formation in a ratio-dependent predator–prey system. We show that the system can develop patterns both inside and outside of the Turing parameter domain. Contrary to widespread opinion, we show that the interaction between two different type of instability, such as the Turing–Hopf bifurcation, does not necessarily lead to the onset of chaos; on the contrary, the emerging patterns remain stationary and almost regular. Spatiotemporal chaos can only be observed for parameters well inside the Turing–Hopf domain. We then investigate the relative importance of these two instability types on the onset of chaos and show that, in a ratio-dependent predator–prey system, the Hopf bifurcation is indeed essential for the onset of chaos whilst the Turing instability is not.     

Seasonal variation in the trophic structure of a spatial prey subsidy linking aquatic and terrestrial food webs: adult aquatic insects

Research over the past decade has established spatial resource subsidies as important determinants of food web dynamics. However, most empirical studies have considered the role of subsidies only in terms of magnitude, ignoring an important property of subsidies that may affect their impact in recipient food webs: the trophic structure of the subsidy relative to in situ resources. This may be especially important when subsidies are composed of organisms, as opposed to nutrient subsidies, because the trophic position of subsidy organisms may differ from in situ prey. I explored the relative magnitude and trophic structure of a cross-habitat prey subsidy, adult aquatic insects, in terrestrial habitats along three streams in the south–central United States. Overall, adult aquatic insects contributed more than one-third of potential insect prey abundance and biomass to the terrestrial habitat. This contribution peaked along a permanent spring stream, reaching as high as 94% of abundance and 86% of biomass in winter. Trophic structure of adult aquatic and terrestrial insects differed. Nearly all adult aquatic insects were non-consumers as adults, whereas all but one taxon of terrestrial insects were consumers. Such a difference created a strong relationship between the relative contribution of the prey subsidy and the trophic structure of the prey assemblage: as the proportion of adult aquatic insects increased, the proportion of consumers in the prey assemblage declined. Specific effects varied seasonally and with distance from the stream as the taxonomic composition of the subsidy changed, but general patterns were consistent. These findings show that adult aquatic insect subsidies to riparian food webs not only elevate prey availability, but also alter the trophic structure of the entire winged insect prey assemblage.     

Food web complexity and stability across habitat connectivity gradients

The effects of habitat connectivity on food webs have been studied both empirically and theoretically, yet the question of whether empirical results support theoretical predictions for any food web metric other than species richness has received little attention. Our synthesis brings together theory and empirical evidence for how habitat connectivity affects both food web stability and complexity. Food web stability is often predicted to be greatest at intermediate levels of connectivity, representing a compromise between the stabilizing effects of dispersal via rescue effects and prey switching, and the destabilizing effects of dispersal via regional synchronization of population dynamics. Empirical studies of food web stability generally support both this pattern and underlying mechanisms. Food chain length has been predicted to have both increasing and unimodal relationships with connectivity as a result of predators being constrained by the patch occupancy of their prey. Although both patterns have been documented empirically, the underlying mechanisms may differ from those predicted by models. In terms of other measures of food web complexity, habitat connectivity has been empirically found to generally increase link density but either reduce or have no effect on connectance, whereas a unimodal relationship is expected. In general, there is growing concordance between empirical patterns and theoretical predictions for some effects of habitat connectivity on food webs, but many predictions remain to be tested over a full connectivity gradient, and empirical metrics of complexity are rarely modeled. Closing these gaps will allow a deeper understanding of how natural and anthropogenic changes in connectivity can affect real food webs.     

Scales of dispersal and the biogeography of marine predator-prey interactions

Striking differences in the dispersal of coexisting species have fascinated marine ecologists for decades. Despite widespread attention to the impact of dispersal on individual species dynamics, its role in species interactions has received comparatively little attention. Here, we approach the issue by combining analyses of simple heuristic predator-prey models with different dispersal patterns and data from several predator-prey systems from the Pacific coasts of North and South America. In agreement with model predictions, differences in predator dispersal generated characteristic biogeographic patterns. Predators lacking pelagic larvae tracked geographic variation in prey recruitment but not prey abundance. Prey recruitment rate alone explained more than 80% of the biogeographic variation in predator abundance. In contrast, predators with broadcasting larvae were uncorrelated with prey recruitment or adult prey abundance. Our findings reconcile perplexing results from previous studies and suggest that simple models can capture some of the complexity of life-history diversity in marine communities.     

Trophic interactions and population growth rates: describing patterns and identifying mechanisms

While the concept of population growth rate has been of central importance in the development of the theory of population dynamics, few empirical studies consider the intrinsic growth rate in detail, let alone how it may vary within and between populations of the same species. In an attempt to link theory with data we take two approaches. First, we address the question ''what growth rate patterns does theory predict we should see in time-series?'' The models make a number of predictions, which in general are supported by a comparative study between time-series of harvesting data from 352 red grouse populations. Variations in growth rate between grouse populations were associated with factors that reflected the quality and availability of the main food plant of the grouse. However, while these results support predictions from theory, they provide no clear insight into the mechanisms influencing reductions in population growth rate and regulation. In the second part of the paper, we consider the results of experiments, first at the individual level and then at the population level, to identify the important mechanisms influencing changes in individual productivity and population growth rate. The parasitic nematode Trichostrongylus tenuis is found to have an important influence on productivity, and when incorporated into models with their patterns of distribution between individuals has a destabilizing effect and generates negative growth rates. The hypothesis that negative growth rates at the population level were caused by parasites was demonstrated by a replicated population level experiment. With a sound and tested model framework we then explore the interaction with other natural enemies and show that in general they tend to stabilize variations in growth rate. Interestingly, the models show selective predators that remove heavily infected individuals can release the grouse from parasite-induced regulation and allow equilibrium populations to rise. By contrast, a tick-borne virus that killed chicks simply leads to a reduction in the equilibrium. When humans take grouse they do not appear to stabilize populations and this may be because many of the infective stages are available for infection before harvesting commences. In our opinion, an understanding of growth rates and population dynamics is best achieved through a mechanistic approach that includes a sound experimental approach with the development of models. Models can be tested further to explore how the community of predators and others interact with their prey.     

Density-dependent prey behaviours and mutable predator foraging modes induce Allee effects and over-prediction of prey mortality rates

1. Predator–prey models are often used to represent consumptive interactions between species but, typically, are derived using simple experimental systems with little plasticity in prey or predator behaviours. However, many prey and predators exhibit a broad suite of behaviours. Here, we experimentally tested the effect of density-dependent prey and predator behaviours on per capita relative mortality rates using Florida bass (Micropterus floridanus) consuming juvenile Bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus).
2. Experimental ponds were stocked with a factorial design of low, medium, and high prey and predator densities. Prey mortality, prey–predator behaviours, and predator stomach contents were recorded over or after 7 days. We assumed the mortality dynamics followed foraging arena theory. This pathologically flexible predator–prey model separates prey into invulnerable and vulnerable pools where predators can consume prey in the latter. As this approach can represent classic Lotka–Volterra and ratio-dependent dynamics, we fit a foraging arena predator–prey model to the number of surviving prey.
3. We found that prey exhibited density-dependent prey behaviours, hiding at low densities, shoaling at medium densities, and using a provided refuge at high densities. Predators exhibited ratio-dependent behaviours, using an ambush foraging mode when one predator was present, hiding in the shadows at low prey–high predator densities, and shoaling at medium and high prey–high predator densities. The foraging arena model predicted the mortality rates well until the high prey–high predator treatment where group vigilance prey behaviours occurred and predators probably interfered with one another resulting in the model predicting higher mortality than observed.
4. This is concerning given the ubiquity of predator–prey models in ecology and natural resource management. Furthermore, as Allee effects engender instability in population regulation, it could lead to inaccurate predictions of conservation status, population rebuilding or harvest rates.

     

Representing Density Dependent Consequences of Life History Strategies in Aquatic Ecosystems: EcoSim II

EcoSim II uses results from the Ecopath procedure for trophic mass-balance analysis to define biomass dynamics models for predicting temporal change in exploited ecosystems. Key populations can be represented in further detail by using delay-difference models to account for both biomass and numbers dynamics. A major problem revealed by linking the population and biomass dynamics models is in representation of population responses to changes in food supply; simple proportional growth and reproductive responses lead to unrealistic predictions of changes in mean body size with changes in fishing mortality. EcoSim II allows users to specify life history mechanisms to avoid such unrealistic predictions: animals may translate changes in feeding rate into changes in reproductive rather than growth rates, or they may translate changes in food availability into changes in foraging time that in turn affects predation risk. These options, along with model relationships for limits on prey availability caused by predation avoidance tactics, tend to cause strong compensatory responses in modeled populations. It is likely that such compensatory responses are responsible for our inability to find obvious correlations between interacting trophic components in fisheries time-series data. But Ecosim II does not just predict strong compensatory responses: it also suggests that large piscivores may be vulnerable to delayed recruitment collapses caused by increases in prey species that are in turn competitors/predators of juvenile piscivores. Received 24 February 1999; accepted 3 August 1999.     

Selective predation by crevalle jack <Emphasis Type="Italic">Caranx caninus</Emphasis> on engraulid fishes in the SE Gulf of California,Mexico

Feeding habits determine many aspects of living organisms, where it lives, the time of day that it is active, energy flow, biomass consumed and intra- and interspecific interactions, it which provides information to make predictions about the effects of fisheries on predator-prey relationships. Accurate predictions require a thorough understanding of predator diets and prey selection. In this study, specimens of the crevalle jack Caranx caninus were obtained between October 2012 and October 2014 in the SE Gulf of California, Mexico, in order to determine its feeding habits and prey selection. A total of 238 specimens were obtained, of which 94 (39.5%) had stomachs containing food and 144 (60.5%) had empty stomachs. A total of 10 prey items were identified, corresponding to seven families that included fishes, crustaceans and cephalopods. According to the Index of Relative Importance (IRI) the most important prey were Anchoa spp. (IRI = 91.2%), Engraulis mordax (IRI = 1.8%), and fish from the Clupeidae family (IRI = 1.0%). The crevalle jack’s diet did not change with the season (warm or cold). The crevalle jack was considered a tertiary predator (trophic level = 4.3) that tends to feed on a reduced number of prey, characterizing it as a specialist and selective predator of engraulid fishes (Levin’s index, Bi = 0.08; E = 0.6).     

Prey Patch Patterns Predict Habitat Use by Top Marine Predators with Diverse Foraging Strategies

Spatial coherence between predators and prey has rarely been observed in pelagic marine ecosystems. We used measures of the environment, prey abundance, prey quality, and prey distribution to explain the observed distributions of three co-occurring predator species breeding on islands in the southeastern Bering Sea: black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla), thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia), and northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus). Predictions of statistical models were tested using movement patterns obtained from satellite-tracked individual animals. With the most commonly used measures to quantify prey distributions - areal biomass, density, and numerical abundance - we were unable to find a spatial relationship between predators and their prey. We instead found that habitat use by all three predators was predicted most strongly by prey patch characteristics such as depth and local density within spatial aggregations. Additional prey patch characteristics and physical habitat also contributed significantly to characterizing predator patterns. Our results indicate that the small-scale prey patch characteristics are critical to how predators perceive the quality of their food supply and the mechanisms they use to exploit it, regardless of time of day, sampling year, or source colony. The three focal predator species had different constraints and employed different foraging strategies – a shallow diver that makes trips of moderate distance (kittiwakes), a deep diver that makes trip of short distances (murres), and a deep diver that makes extensive trips (fur seals). However, all three were similarly linked by patchiness of prey rather than by the distribution of overall biomass. This supports the hypothesis that patchiness may be critical for understanding predator-prey relationships in pelagic marine systems more generally.     

Phenomenological Model for Predicting the Catabolic Potential of an Arbitrary Nutrient

The ability of microbial species to consume compounds found in the environment to generate commercially-valuable products has long been exploited by humanity. The untapped, staggering diversity of microbial organisms offers a wealth of potential resources for tackling medical, environmental, and energy challenges. Understanding microbial metabolism will be crucial to many of these potential applications. Thermodynamically-feasible metabolic reconstructions can be used, under some conditions, to predict the growth rate of certain microbes using constraint-based methods. While these reconstructions are powerful, they are still cumbersome to build and, because of the complexity of metabolic networks, it is hard for researchers to gain from these reconstructions an understanding of why a certain nutrient yields a given growth rate for a given microbe. Here, we present a simple model of biomass production that accurately reproduces the predictions of thermodynamically-feasible metabolic reconstructions. Our model makes use of only: i) a nutrient''s structure and function, ii) the presence of a small number of enzymes in the organism, and iii) the carbon flow in pathways that catabolize nutrients. When applied to test organisms, our model allows us to predict whether a nutrient can be a carbon source with an accuracy of about 90% with respect to in silico experiments. In addition, our model provides excellent predictions of whether a medium will produce more or less growth than another () and good predictions of the actual value of the in silico biomass production.     

Plankton motility patterns and encounter rates

Many planktonic organisms have motility patterns with correlation run lengths (distances traversed before direction changes) of the same order as their reaction distances regarding prey, mates and predators (distances at which these organisms are remotely detected). At these scales, the relative measure of run length to reaction distance determines whether the underlying encounter is ballistic or diffusive. Since ballistic interactions are intrinsically more efficient than diffusive, we predict that organisms will display motility with long correlation run lengths compared to their reaction distances to their prey, but short compared to the reaction distances of their predators. We show motility data for planktonic organisms ranging from bacteria to copepods that support this prediction. We also present simple ballistic and diffusive motility models for estimating encounter rates, which lead to radically different predictions, and we present a simple criterion to determine which model is the more appropriate in a given case.     

Using a new framework of two-phase generalized additive models to incorporate prey abundance in spatial distribution models of juvenile slender lizardfish in Haizhou Bay,China

The predictive skill of species distribution models depends on the quality and quantity of input information. In addition to the physical environmental variables, prey availability is also one of the main drivers regulating spatial distribution of marine species. However, prey distribution data have rarely been considered in habitat models due to the lack of information on non-commercial prey species. This may lead to an incomplete view of species distributions and biased model predictions. In this study, we developed a new framework of two-phase generalized additive models (GAMs) based on the Tweedie distribution to incorporate the predicted prey abundance as covariates in habitat models, and applied this framework to juvenile slender lizardfish Saurida elongata in Haizhou Bay, China. This study demonstrated that the predictive skill of habitat models could be greatly improved through incorporating prey abundance as explanatory variables. The importance of prey distribution data in the habitat model confirms the essentiality of including prey data while modelling species distribution. Spatial overlap and GAM analysis demonstrated that not all dominant prey can be selected as potential explanatory variables and only those prey species showing high spatiotemporal occurrences with predators should be incorporated. The framework derived in this study could be extended to other marine organisms to improve the predictive skill of habitat models and enhance our understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying the distribution of marine species.     

A theoretical framework for resource translocation during sexual reproduction in modular organisms

An individual of modular organisms, such as plants and fungi, consists of more than one module that is sometimes physically and physiologically connected with each other. We examined effects of translocation costs, resource–fitness relationships and original resource conditions for modules on the optimal resource translocation strategy for reproductive success in modular organisms with simple models. We considered two types of translocation cost: amount-dependent and ratio-dependent costs. Three optimal resource translocation strategies were recognized: all resource translocation (ART), partial resource translocation (PRT), and no resource translocation (NRT). These strategies depended on the translocation cost, shape of resource–fitness curve, and original resource condition for each module. Generally, a large translocation cost and a concave resource–fitness relationship promoted NRT or PRT. Meanwhile, a small translocation cost and convex resource–fitness relationship facilitated ART. The type of translocation cost did not strongly affect the optimal resource translocation patterns, although ART was never an optimal strategy when the cost was ratio-dependent. Resource translocation patterns found in modular plants were discussed in the light of our model results.     

Effects of evolutionary changes in prey use on the relationship between food web complexity and stability

The relationship between food web complexity and stability has been the subject of a long-standing debate in ecology. Although rapid changes in the food web structure through adaptive foraging behavior can confer stability to complex food webs, as reported by Kondoh (Science 299:1388–1391, 2003), the exact mechanisms behind this adaptation have not been specified in previous studies; thus, the applicability of such predictions to real ecosystems remains unclear. One mechanism of adaptive foraging is evolutionary change in genetically determined prey use. We constructed individual-based models of evolution of prey use by predators assuming explicit population genetics processes, and examined how this evolution affects the stability (i.e., the proportion of species that persist) of the food web and whether the complexity of the food web increased the stability of the prey–predator system. The analysis showed that the stability of food webs decreased with increasing complexity regardless of evolution of prey use by predators. The effects of evolution on stability differed depending on the assumptions made regarding genetic control of prey use. The probabilities of species extinctions were associated with the establishment or loss of trophic interactions via evolution of the predator, indicating a clear link between structural changes in the food web and community stability.     

General equilibrium of an ecosystem

Ecosystems and economies are inextricably linked: ecosystem models and economic models are not linked. Consequently, using either type of model to design policies for preserving ecosystems or improving economic performance omits important information. Improved policies would follow from a model that links the systems and accounts for the mutual feedbacks by recognizing how key ecosystem variables influence key economic variables, and vice versa. Because general equilibrium economic models already are widely used for policy making, the approach used here is to develop a general equilibrium ecosystem model which captures salient biological functions and which can be integrated with extant economic models. In the ecosystem model, each organism is assumed to be a net energy maximizer that must exert energy to capture biomass from other organisms. The exerted energies are the "prices" that are paid to biomass, and each organism takes the prices as signals over which it has no control. The maximization problem yields the organism's demand for and supply of biomass to other organisms as functions of the prices. The demands and supplies for each biomass are aggregated over all organisms in each species which establishes biomass markets wherein biomass prices are determined. A short-run equilibrium is established when all organisms are maximizing and demand equals supply in every biomass market. If a species exhibits positive (negative) net energy in equilibrium, its population increases (decreases) and a new equilibrium follows. The demand and supply forces in the biomass markets drive each species toward zero stored energy and a long-run equilibrium. Population adjustments are not based on typical Lotka-Volterra differential equations in which one entire population adjusts to another entire population thereby masking organism behavior; instead, individual organism behavior is central to population adjustments. Numerical simulations use a marine food web in Alaska to illustrate the model and to show several simultaneous predator/prey relationships, prey switching by the top predator, and energy flows through the web.     

Testing assumptions for conservation of migratory shorebirds and coastal managed wetlands

Managed wetlands provide critical foraging and roosting habitats for shorebirds during migration; therefore, ensuring their availability is a priority action in shorebird conservation plans. Contemporary shorebird conservation plans rely on a number of assumptions about shorebird prey resources and migratory behavior to determine stopover habitat requirements. For example, the US Shorebird Conservation Plan for the Southeast-Caribbean region assumes that average benthic invertebrate biomass in foraging habitats is 2.4 g dry mass m^?2 and that the dominant prey item of shorebirds in the region is Chironomid larvae. For effective conservation and management, it is important to test working assumptions and update predictive models that are used to estimate habitat requirements. We surveyed migratory shorebirds and sampled the benthic invertebrate community in coastal managed wetlands of South Carolina. We sampled invertebrates at three points in time representing early, middle, and late stages of spring migration, and concurrently surveyed shorebird stopover populations at approximately 7-day intervals throughout migration. We used analysis of variance by ranks to test for temporal variation in invertebrate biomass and density, and we used a model based approach (linear mixed model and Monte Carlo simulation) to estimate mean biomass and density. There was little evidence of a temporal variation in biomass or density during the course of spring shorebird migration, suggesting that shorebirds did not deplete invertebrate prey resources at our site. Estimated biomass was 1.47 g dry mass m^?2 (95 % credible interval 0.13–3.55), approximately 39 % lower than values used in the regional shorebird conservation plan. An additional 4728 ha (a 63 % increase) would be required if habitat objectives were derived from biomass levels observed in our study. Polychaetes, especially Laeonereis culveri (2569 individuals m^?2), were the most abundant prey in foraging habitats at our site. Polychaetes have lower caloric content than levels assumed in the regional plan; when lower caloric content and lower biomass levels are used to determine habitat objectives, an additional 6395 ha would be required (86 % increase). Shorebird conservation and management plans would benefit from considering the uncertainty in parameters used to derive habitat objectives, especially biomass and caloric content of prey resources. Iterative testing of models that are specific to the planning region will provide rapid advances for management and conservation of migratory shorebirds and coastal managed wetlands.