Predicting leatherjacket population frequencies in Northern Ireland

Annual surveys of leatherjacket (Tipula spp. larvae) were made in Northern Ireland to provide warning of the likelihood of damage to spring sown cereals after grass. A climate-based multiple regression model was developed to estimate mean annual populations. Ades distributions were fitted to the annual data of leatherjacket counts to provide common estimates of parameters r and r. These values were then held constant to provide yearly estimates of A, the third parameter. The relationship between A and the sample mean was established so that a frequency distribution could be generated for any estimated mean population density. The ability of these models to predict leatherjacket frequency distributions was validated by using weather data for 1985–1988 to predict the number of fields with populations in excess of thresholds of 0.5,0.75 and 1 times 10⁵ha^-1. It is concluded that the predictions were of sufficient accuracy to substitute for the annual leatherjacket survey.     

中国亚热带地区4种极危冷杉属植物的地理分布特征及其与气候的关系

通过野外实地调查和文献调研, 分析4种极危冷杉属(Abies)植物的地理分布现状和特征, 构建其分布区的气候数据库, 采用国际上常用的研究植被与气候关系的指标和方法, 定量分析冷杉属地理分布与水热条件的关系, 并通过因子分析方法确定影响冷杉属地理分布的限制性气候因子。结果表明: 1)百山祖冷杉(Abies beshanzuensis)、梵净山冷杉(A. fanjingshanensis)、元宝山冷杉(A. yuanbaoshanensis)和资源冷杉(A. beshanzuensis var. ziyuanensis)零星分布于我国亚热带地区, 水平分布范围为25°25′-27°55′ N, 108°42′-119°12′ E , 分布范围狭窄; 垂直分布范围为1363-2390 m, 均分布于山体上部。海拔上限高度随着经度的减小而增加。2)整个分布区的气温较低, 年平均气温为7.4-11.2 ℃; 降水较为充沛, 年降水量为1265.4-1945.7 mm, 其中生长季降水量占74.78%; 湿度较大, 年相对湿度为77%-86%。气候指标范围狭窄, 表明对水热条件要求很高。分布区寒冷指数较低, 限制其垂直向下扩散, 呈现局限分布于山体上部的现状。3) 4种冷杉各分布区的气候条件基本相近, 梵净山冷杉分布区气温相对偏低, 元宝山冷杉分布区湿度相对偏大。4) 3个气候因子对这4种冷杉的地理分布影响较大, 其作用排序为: 低温因子>极端低温因子>湿度因子。在全球气候变暖的大背景下, 这4种冷杉自然分布区的适宜生境将进一步缩小, 直至物种灭绝, 急需开展迁地保护工作。     

黑河上游祁连山区青海云杉生长状况及其潜在分布区的模拟

根据Hutchinson的n维超体积概念以及物种与资源利用之间的关系, 构建了青海云杉(Picea crassifolia)在三维环境资源空间中的生物-地理模型, 并利用该模型模拟了青海云杉的潜在分布及其对环境资源的利用状况。结果表明: 青海云杉在生长季平均气温、多年平均降水量及太阳直接辐射三维环境资源空间上的最佳配置为9 ℃、360 mm和1.9 × 10³ kW·h·m^-2; 用三元方程式的拟合结果在大范围上预测了青海云杉的潜在分布区, 并给出了其在对应地理位置上的生长状况。     

An assessment of population size and distribution of harbour seals in the Republic of Ireland during the moult season in August 2003

The status of Ireland's harbour seal Phoca vitulina vitulina population is poorly understood. The most recent national population estimate dates back to the breeding season in 1978 and did not cover the entire coastline. Reliable up-to-date information on the abundance and distribution of harbour seals in Ireland is necessary to assess the conservation status of the species and for the effective identification, management and monitoring of special areas of conservation required for harbour seals under the EU Habitats Directive. To provide comprehensive current information on Ireland's harbour seal population, a geographically extensive survey was conducted along the coastline of the Republic of Ireland during the species' annual moult in August 2003. This complemented a similar survey of Northern Ireland, which was conducted in 2002. Using thermal imaging technology, haul-out groups of harbour seals and grey seals Halichoerus grypus were identified from the air, aerial-counts were obtained and compared with simultaneous ground-count data from selected sites. Harbour seal distribution recorded during the 2003 moult season was concentrated in the south-west, west and north-west of the country. This national survey yielded a minimum population estimate for the Republic of Ireland of 2905 harbour seals, delivering an effective baseline for current and future population research.     

A preliminary comparison of some management options for reducing grass losses caused by leatherjackets in Northern Ireland

Leatherjackets can cause serious yield reductions in Northern Ireland grass. This paper considers the distribution of field population sizes derived from 19 years' data in conjuction with calculated damage functions to estimate average expected losses. Six management options were compared. These were ‘No action’, routine insecticide application in September or March, insecticide application in March in high risk years only and the use of monitoring and economic thresholds in September or March. The annual expected revenues for each of these options was calculated for herbage dry-matter values of £0.01–0.07 kg^-1. It was concluded that action against leatherjackets in September would give better returns than action in March and that the use of monitoring and spraying of only those field populations above an economic threshold gave rise to greatest revenue. An annual loss to leatherjackets in Northern Ireland of over £15 million was calculated from an assumed herbage value of £0.035 kg^-1 dry matter.     

Body size – prey size relationships in European stoats Mustela erminea: a test case

From the close correlation between the body size of European stoats and the mean size of their vertebrate prey it ought to be possible to predict the body size of European stoats living on a prey fauna of a given size distribution. In New Zealand, stoats of European stock have lived for > 100 yr on a prey fauna containing fewer small and more large vertebrate prey than in Europe. They have become generally larger than their ancestors, as expected – especially the females. The vertebrate prey size index for New Zealand stoats extends the correlation predicted from European data. New Zealand stoats also eat large numbers of native insects. If these are included the local prey size indices are lower but still tend to vary with the substantial local variation in body size of stoats within New Zealand. Recent results from southern Ireland also fit the European correlation, but the few data so far available from Northern Ireland do not.     

An analysis of the total phosphorus cycle in some temperate lakes: the response to enrichment

• 1 Total phosphorus (TP) cycles were examined in seventeen lakes from the Scottish lowlands and Northern Ireland, which varied in annual mean TP from 17 to 192 μg Pl^-1.
• 2 It is clear from the data that the annual range of TP concentrations increases as the annual maximum TP increases. Although the annual minimum TP increases somewhat with increasing annual maxima, even enriched lakes show a pronounced TP minimum. As a result, the annual maximum values are highly correlated with the ranges and means, but less so with the annual minima.
• 3 The data are discussed in relation to a conceptual sine wave model and it is suggested that enrichment modulates the amplitude of the sine wave.
• 4 Mechanisms conditioning the maximum and minimum values are reviewed.

     

A species distribution model for pine marten (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Martes martes</Emphasis>) in the least forested region of Europe

Species distribution modelling is a useful technique that provides data on factors that can influence a species range, identify high suitability areas and model future scenarios. The pine marten (Martes martes) has undergone major historical declines in abundance and distribution in Northern Ireland, similar to that which has occurred throughout its range. Currently, the species is in a phase of range expansion in Northern Ireland, in what is the least forested landscape in Europe. To assess the suitability of this environment for pine marten re-establishment, presence only distribution data combined with landcover data at a 10-km scale were used in a species distribution modelling study using Maxent. The results indicated that approximately 32% (4500 km²) of the land area of Northern Ireland had a high probability of pine marten occurrence. Pine marten distribution was positively associated with the extent of conifer forest landcover types, which also had the highest single attribute contribution to the model. Landcover types that were negatively associated with pine marten distribution included the extent of open, dwarf and urban areas.     

Predicting the spring algal biomass in Lough Neagh using time series analysis

1. Lough Neagh is a large eutrophic lake covering 387 km² with a mean depth of 8.9 m. It is an important natural resource, being the largest single source of potable water for Belfast, Northern Ireland. 2. This report examines the causes of the year-to-year variation in the April–June (spring) algal biomass, measured as chlorophyll a, for the period 1974–92. 3. The spring chlorophyll a declined following the introduction of a phosphorus (P) reduction programme at major sewage treatment works in 1981. However, since 1990 the chlorophyll a concentrations in the spring have increased. 4. Time series methodology was employed to develop a model which explained 76% of the annual variation in spring chlorophyll a concentrations. 5. The independent variables used in the multiple regression model were the previous year’s spring chlorophyll a concentration, soluble reactive P inputs for April–June and the particulate P concentration in the Lough during the previous summer.     

Hierarchical Bayesian integrated model for estimating migratory bird harvest in Canada

The Canadian Wildlife Service (CWS) requires reliable estimates of the harvest of migratory game birds, including waterfowl, to effectively manage populations of these hunted species. The National Harvest Survey is an annual survey of hunters who purchase Canada's mandatory migratory game bird hunting permit, integrating information from a survey of hunting activity with information from a separate survey of species composition in the harvest. We used these survey data to estimate the number of birds harvested for each species and hunting activity metrics (e.g., number of active hunters, days spent hunting). The analytical methods used to generate these estimates have not changed since the survey was first designed in the early 1970s. We describe a new hierarchical Bayesian integrated model, which replaces the series of ratio estimators that comprised the old model. We are using this new model to generate estimates for migratory bird harvests as of the 2019–2020 hunting season, and to generate updated estimates for all earlier years. The hierarchical Bayesian model uses over-dispersed Poisson distributions to model mean hunter activity and harvest (zero-inflated Poisson and zero-truncated Poisson, respectively). It also includes multinomial distributions to model some key components (e.g., variation in harvest across periods of the hunting season, the species composition of the harvest within each of those periods, the age and sex composition in the harvests of a given species). We estimated the parameters of the Poisson and the multinomial distributions for each year as random effects using first-difference time-series. This time-series component allows the model to share information across years and reduces the sensitivity of the estimates to annual sampling noise. The new model estimates are generally very similar to those from the old model, particularly for the species that occur most commonly in the harvest, so the results do not suggest any major changes to harvest management decisions and regulations. Estimates for all species from the new model are more precise and less susceptible to annual sampling error, particularly for species that occur less commonly in the harvest (e.g., sea ducks, other species of conservation concern). This new model, with its hierarchical Bayesian framework, will also facilitate future improvements and elaborations, allowing the incorporation of prior information from the rich literature and knowledge in game bird management and biology.     

A comparison of management options for leatherjacket populations in organic crop rotations using mathematical models

1 Pest management in organic systems is challenged by the paucity of options for direct interventions to control damaging populations compared with conventional agriculture. Consequently, a greater emphasis has to be placed on managing pest numbers through a rotation. In the present study, simulation modelling is used to evaluate the effects of different management options on populations of Tipula paludosa (leatherjackets) in organic rotations.
2 The growth of leatherjacket populations in grass was simulated over 5 years for different starting numbers. A significant risk of leatherjacket attack to subsequent crops can be avoided by limiting the fertility building phase of a rotation to a maximum of 2 years.
3 The effect of cultural control through additional cultivation interventions was compared in rotations comprising a grass/clover fertility building phase with host and/or nonhost crops. It is concluded that the effects are marginal and that prophylactic use cannot be recommended.
4 The prophylactic use of biological control agents in permanent grass and grass/arable rotations was investigated. Maximum population reductions in grass were achieved through annual autumn applications but the optimal economic strategy was less frequent than this. Application in the autumn preceding a spring-sown arable crop provided the best risk reduction.
5 A model decision support system for the control of pests in organic systems using data for leatherjacket damage to spring barley is presented. Economic threshold concepts are used to define when cultural control (as additional cultivation) and biocontrol applications should be used.
6 The present study shows the potential benefits of simulation modelling for the rapid evaluation of a wide range of pest management options. Any conclusions drawn from such simulations, however, are provisional until they can be tested experimentally.     

Population structure, growth and distribution of Lingula anatina (Brachiopoda) in Queensland, Australia

Size-frequency data collected in large samples from five populations of Lingula anatina from North Queensland intertidal sandflats conformed to previously known brachiopod size-frequency distributions. Probability paper analysis of the samples and constituent sub-samples confirmed that all the distributions had a hidden poly-modality resulting from a long but defined breeding season. Two patterns of annual recruitment were revealed; the first is the periodic failure of the populations to gain recruits and the second is one of patchy distribution of settlement cohorts. These patterns introduce sampling bias into the derivation of lingulid size frequency curves unless compensated by more extensive sampling methods than have previously been considered adequate. The interpretation of year classes has enabled a growth curve to be derived. The populations inhabited predominantly sandy sub-strates and displayed aggregated distributions. Littoral distribution of the species is regarded as optimal rather than marginal.     

Growth of cell populations with arbitrarily distributed cycle durations. I. basic model

A discrete model is proposed describing the growth of cell populations with arbitrary frequency distributions of cycle durations. The model assumes that each cell divides into two cells at the end of its cycle, and that each new cell is assigned an individual cycle duration according to a probability distribution that can be arbitrarily defined. The increase in the cell number is calculated, either from the numbers of cells at earlier time points or from the initial conditions of the population, by a recurrence formula; it is also approximated by the optimal exponential function, whose parameters are determined by the initial conditions. The appropriate average cycle duration is shown not to be the arithmetic or geometric mean, but rather the solution to a more complex equation. Age distributions are calculated and compared with those found in the literature. The results of the model calculations are compared with computer simulations and with observed data on populations of the ciliate Tetrahymena geleii.     

Hierarchical models facilitate spatial analysis of large data sets: a case study on invasive plant species in the northeastern United States

Many critical ecological issues require the analysis of large spatial point data sets – for example, modelling species distributions, abundance and spread from survey data. But modelling spatial relationships, especially in large point data sets, presents major computational challenges. We use a novel Bayesian hierarchical statistical approach, 'spatial predictive process' modelling, to predict the distribution of a major invasive plant species, Celastrus orbiculatus , in the northeastern USA. The model runs orders of magnitude faster than traditional geostatistical models on a large data set of c . 4000 points, and performs better than generalized linear models, generalized additive models and geographically weighted regression in cross-validation. We also use this approach to model simultaneously the distributions of a set of four major invasive species in a spatially explicit multivariate model. This multispecies analysis demonstrates that some pairs of species exhibit negative residual spatial covariation, suggesting potential competitive interaction or divergent responses to unmeasured factors.     

Modelling past and present geographical distribution of the marine gastropod Patella rustica as a tool for exploring responses to environmental change

A climate envelope approach was used to model the distributions of the intertidal gastropod Patella rustica , to test the robustness of forecast responses to climate change. The model incorporated variables that were likely to determine the abundance and the northern range limit of this species in the NE Atlantic. The model was built using classification and regression tree analysis (CART) trained with historical distribution data from the mid 1950s and a set of corresponding climatic and oceanographic variables. Results indicated air and sea temperature, in particular during the reproductive and settlement periods, as the main determinants of the Atlantic distribution of P. rustica . The model was subsequently fed with contemporary climatic data and its output was compared with the current distribution and abundance of P. rustica , assessed during a 2002–2003 survey. The model correctly hindcasted the recent collapse of a distributional gap in northern Portugal, as well as an increase in abundance at locations within its range. The predicted northward expansion of the northern range limit did not occur because the absence of the species was confirmed in a survey encompassing the whole Atlantic French coast up to Brest. Stretches of unsuitable habitat too long to be overcome by dispersal are the likely mechanism controlling the northern limit of the distribution of this intertidal species.     

中国现代人群两性身高差异分布及其影响因素

本文对中国现代人群的两性身高差异分布状况及其影响因素进行了分析。选用152处中国现代人群（含69处汉族人群和83处少数民族人群）的男、女性身高数据,计算两性身高差异指数,并对比该指数在南、北方汉族和少数民族人群间的分布差异,同时分析纬度、气候、体格大小与城乡环境因素对两性身高差异程度的影响。结果表明,中国男性的平均身高比女性高出约7.16%(4.72%~9.26%）;南、北方汉族和少数民族之间的两性身高差异程度相似,北方汉族和南方汉族两性身高差异程度相似,但北方少数民族的两性身高差异明显大于南方少数民族。此外,两性身高差异程度与纬度、气温年较差和年均风速呈低度线性正相关,与年均气温、年均降水量和年均相对湿度呈低度线性负相关,而与体格大小和城乡环境并无显著关联。这提示遗传和自然环境因素在中国现代人群两性身高差异的区域化演变中更趋主导性,而社会环境因素的影响程度相对较低。     

Breeding status of Merlins Falco columbarius in the UK in 2008

Capsule The third national Merlin survey estimated a UK population of 1162 breeding pairs (95% CI: 891–1462).

Aims To estimate the number of breeding Merlins (with associated 95% confidence intervals) in the UK and the four countries (Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland), and to compare these with the relevant estimates from the 1993–94 Merlin survey. In addition, to calculate estimates of change for several regional populations with complete survey coverage during both national surveys.

Methods A subset of 10-km squares (Raptor Study Group squares and randomly sampled squares) was surveyed across the breeding distribution of Merlins in the UK using standardised methods devised during the 1993–94 national survey.

Results The population estimate for Merlins in the UK was 1162 breeding pairs, and in Britain was 1128 pairs (95% CI: 849–1427), which although 13% lower, was not significantly different from the British estimate of the 1993–94 survey. Scotland held the bulk (733 pairs) of the UK Merlin population, and smaller numbers of 301 pairs, 94 pairs and 32 pairs were estimated for England, Wales and Northern Ireland, respectively. The population estimate for Wales may have been biased upwards by low coverage in the south of the country. Marked declines were noted in several regional Merlin populations, particularly in areas of northern England.

Conclusions The 2008 Merlin survey suggests that the population in Britain has remained relatively stable since 1993–94, but with local declines, particularly in northern England. Currently, little is known about important drivers of regional population change in Merlins, but changes in land-use, prey populations and climate are likely to be important factors.     

The American Mink Mustela vison in Ireland

The American Mink Mustela vison was first introduced into Ireland in 1951 for commercial fur–farming and has successfully established itself in the wild from escaped stock. Initial concentrations of feral populations were in the north, north–west and in the Midlands, with scattered introductions in the south–west of the country. Data on mink farming and the species' present distribution were gathered from all available sources, including a survey conducted during 1984–1986. The feral mink is now widespread throughout the island with the exception of major portions of western counties, which it is currently colonizing. Populations are stabilizing in established zones and, although there is a need for control measures in certain situations, the overall threat to the limited Irish fauna does not appear as great as initially feared. The spread of the American Mink in other European countries is reviewed briefly.     

A review of the status and decline in abundance of the Irish Hare (Lepus timidus hibernicus) in Northern Ireland

The Northern Ireland Hare Survey documented the distribution of the Irish Hare (Lepus timidus hibernicus). Historical game bag records and other, more contemporary, records of hare distribution were examined. These data indicate how numbers of L. t. hibernicus may have changed over the last 140 years. The results of the Northern Ireland Hare Survey suggested that L. t. hibernicus was widespread throughout Northern Ireland. Current average densities are no more than 0.65 hares/km². Game bag records indicate that hare densities may have been much higher in the past, with a maximum of 138 hares/km² recorded on Crom Estate, Co. Fermanagh, in 1864. Evidence from hare distribution recorded during the Northern Ireland Rabbit Survey indicates that hare numbers declined between 1984 and 1994. Evidence from all sources suggests that L. t. hibernicus has declined in abundance substantially, with present total population estimates for Northern Ireland ranging from 8250 to 21 000 individuals. Flushing data indicate that rushes and hedgerows are important diurnal resting areas for hares. While the principal reason for the decline in numbers of L. t. hibernicus in Northern Ireland is not clear, more species‐rich pasture and provision of areas of cover, such as rushes, may arrest further declines, or indeed promote numbers of hares, particularly in lowland areas.     

Connectivity and Dispersal Patterns of Protected Biogenic Reefs: Implications for the Conservation of Modiolus modiolus (L.) in the Irish Sea

Biogenic reefs created by Modiolus modiolus (Linnaeus, 1758) (horse mussel reefs) are marine habitats which support high levels of species biodiversity and provide valuable ecosystem services. Currently, M. modiolus reefs are listed as a threatened and/or declining species and habitat in all OSPAR regions and thus are highlighted as a conservation priority under the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). Determining patterns of larval dispersal and genetic connectivity of remaining horse mussel populations can inform management efforts and is a critical component of effective marine spatial planning (MSP). Larval dispersal patterns and genetic structure were determined for several M. modiolus bed populations in the Irish Sea including those in Wales (North Pen Llŷn), Isle of Man (Point of Ayre) and Northern Ireland (Ards Peninsula and Strangford Lough). Simulations of larval dispersal suggested extant connectivity between populations within the Irish Sea. Results from the genetic analysis carried out using newly developed microsatellite DNA markers were consistent with those of the biophysical model. Results indicated moderately significant differentiation between the Northern Ireland populations and those in the Isle of Man and Wales. Simulations of larval dispersal over a 30 day pelagic larval duration (PLD) suggest that connectivity over a spatial scale of 150km is possible between some source and sink populations. However, it appears unlikely that larvae from Northern Ireland will connect directly with sites on the Llŷn or Isle of Man. It also appears unlikely that larvae from the Llŷn connect directly to any of the other sites. Taken together the data establishes a baseline for underpinning management and conservation of these important and threatened marine habitats in the southern part of the known range.