Simulating switchgrass biomass production across ecoregions using the DAYCENT model

The production potential of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) has not been estimated in a Mediterranean climate on a regional basis and its economic and environmental contribution as a biofuel crop remains unknown. The objectives of the study were to calibrate and validate a biogeochemical model, DAYCENT, and to predict the biomass yield potential of switchgrass across the Central Valley of California. Six common cultivars were calibrated using published data across the US and validated with data generated from four field trials in California (2007–2009). After calibration, the modeled range of yields across the cultivars and various management practices in the US (excluding California) was 2.4–41.2 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1, generally compatible with the observed yield range of 1.3–33.7 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1. Overall, the model was successfully validated in California; the model explained 66–90% of observed yield variation in 2007–2009. The range of modeled yields was 2.0–41.4 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1, which corresponded to the observed range of 1.3–41.1 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1. The response to N fertilizer and harvest frequency on yields were also reasonably validated. The model estimated that Alamo (21–23 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1) and Kanlow (22–24 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1) had greatest yield potential during the years after establishment. The effects of soil texture on modeled yields tended to be consistent for all cultivars, but there were distinct climatic (e.g., annual mean maximum temperature) controls among the cultivars. Our modeled results suggest that early stand maintenance of irrigated switchgrass is strongly dependent on available soil N; estimated yields increased by 1.6–5.5 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1 when residual soil mineral N was sufficient for optimal re‐growth. Therefore, management options of switchgrass for regional biomass production should be ecotype‐specific and ensure available soil N maintenance.     

Miscanthus biomass productivity within US croplands and its potential impact on soil organic carbon

Interest in bioenergy crops is increasing due to their potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and dependence on fossil fuels. We combined process‐based and geospatial models to estimate the potential biomass productivity of miscanthus and its potential impact on soil carbon stocks in the croplands of the continental United States. The optimum (climatic potential) rainfed productivity for field‐dried miscanthus biomass ranged from 1 to 23 Mg biomass ha^?1 yr^?1, with a spatial average of 13 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1 and a coefficient of variation of 30%. This variation resulted primarily from the spatial heterogeneity of effective rainfall, growing degree days, temperature, and solar radiation interception. Cultivating miscanthus would result in a soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration at the rate of 0.16–0.82 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1 across the croplands due to cessation of tillage and increased biomass carbon input into the soil system. We identified about 81 million ha of cropland, primarily in the eastern United States, that could sustain economically viable (>10 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1) production without supplemental irrigation, of which about 14 million ha would reach optimal miscanthus growth. To meet targets of the US Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 using miscanthus as feedstock, 19 million ha of cropland would be needed (spatial average 13 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1) or about 16% less than is currently dedicated to US corn‐based ethanol production.     

Global warming intensity of biofuel derived from switchgrass grown on marginal land in Michigan

Energy crops for biofuel production, especially switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), are of interest from a climate change perspective. Here, we use outputs from a crop growth model and life cycle assessment (LCA) to examine the global warming intensity (GWI; g CO₂ MJ⁻¹) and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential (Mg CO₂ year⁻¹) of biofuel systems based on a spatially explicit analysis of switchgrass grown on marginal land (abandoned former cropland) in Michigan, USA. We find that marginal lands in Michigan can annually produce over 0.57 hm³ of liquid biofuel derived from nitrogen-fertilized switchgrass, mitigating 1.2–1.5 Tg of CO₂ year⁻¹. About 96% of these biofuels can meet the Renewable Fuel Standard (60% reduction in lifecycle GHG emissions compared with conventional gasoline; GWI ≤37.2 g CO₂ MJ⁻¹). Furthermore, 73%–75% of these biofuels are carbon-negative (GWI less than zero) due to enhanced soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration. However, simulations indicate that SOC levels would fail to increase and even decrease on the 11% of lands where SOC stocks >>200 Mg C ha⁻¹, leading to carbon intensities greater than gasoline. Results highlight the strong climate mitigation potential of switchgrass grown on marginal lands as well as the needs to avoid carbon rich soils such as histosols and wetlands and to ensure that productivity will be sufficient to provide net mitigation.     

Nitrous oxide emissions during establishment of eight alternative cellulosic bioenergy cropping systems in the North Central United States

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from soils are a key sustainability metric of cropping systems. During crop establishment, disruptive land‐use change is known to be a critical, but under reported period, for determining GHG emissions. We measured soil N₂O emissions and potential environmental drivers of these fluxes from a three‐year establishment‐phase bioenergy cropping systems experiment replicated in southcentral Wisconsin (ARL) and southwestern Michigan (KBS). Cropping systems treatments were annual monocultures (continuous corn, corn–soybean–canola rotation), perennial monocultures (switchgrass, miscanthus, and poplar), and perennial polycultures (native grass mixture, early successional community, and restored prairie) all grown using best management practices specific to the system. Cumulative three‐year N₂O emissions from annuals were 142% higher than from perennials, with fertilized perennials 190% higher than unfertilized perennials. Emissions ranged from 3.1 to 19.1 kg N₂O‐N ha^?1 yr^?1 for the annuals with continuous corn > corn–soybean–canola rotation and 1.1 to 6.3 kg N₂O‐N ha^?1 yr^?1 for perennials. Nitrous oxide peak fluxes typically were associated with precipitation events that closely followed fertilization. Bayesian modeling of N₂O fluxes based on measured environmental factors explained 33% of variability across all systems. Models trained on single systems performed well in most monocultures (e.g., R² = 0.52 for poplar) but notably worse in polycultures (e.g., R² = 0.17 for early successional, R² = 0.06 for restored prairie), indicating that simulation models that include N₂O emissions should be parameterized specific to particular plant communities. Our results indicate that perennial bioenergy crops in their establishment phase emit less N₂O than annual crops, especially when not fertilized. These findings should be considered further alongside yield and other metrics contributing to important ecosystem services.     

Productivity, 15N dynamics and water use efficiency in low‐ and high‐input switchgrass systems

Sustainable and environmentally benign switchgrass production systems need to be developed for switchgrass to become a large‐scale dedicated energy crop. An experiment was conducted in California from 2009 to 2011 to determine the sustainability of low‐ and high‐input irrigated switchgrass systems as a function of yield, irrigation requirement, crop N removal, N translocation from aboveground (AG) to belowground (BG) biomass during senescence, and fertilizer ¹⁵N recovery (FNR) in the AG and BG biomass (0–300 cm), and soil (0–300 cm). The low‐input system consisted of a single‐harvest (mid‐fall) irrigated until flowering (early summer), while the high‐input system consisted of a two‐harvest system (early summer and mid‐fall) irrigated throughout the growing season. Three N fertilization rates (0, 100, and 200 kg N ha^?1 yr^?1) were applied as subtreatments in a single application in the spring of each year. A single pulse of ¹⁵N enriched fertilizer was applied in the first year of the study to micro‐plots within the 100 kg N ha^?1 subplots. Average yields across years under optimal N rates (100 and 200 kg ha^?1 yr^?1 for low‐ and high‐input systems, respectively) were 20.7 and 24.8 Mg ha^?1. However, the low input (372 ha mm) required 47% less irrigation than the high‐input system (705 ha mm) and achieved higher irrigation use efficiency. In addition, the low‐input system had 46% lower crop N removal, 53% higher N stored in BG biomass, and a positive N balance, presumably due to 49% of ¹⁵N translocation from AG to BG biomass during senescence. Furthermore, at the end of 3 years, the low‐input system had lower fertilizer ¹⁵N removed by harvest (26%) and higher FNR remaining in the system in BG biomass plus soil (31%) than the high‐input system (45% and 21%, respectively). Based on these findings, low‐input systems are more sustainable than high‐input systems in irrigated Mediterranean climates.     

Carbon and nitrogen dynamics in bioenergy ecosystems: 2. Potential greenhouse gas emissions and global warming intensity in the conterminous United States

This study estimated the potential emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) from bioenergy ecosystems with a biogeochemical model AgTEM, assuming maize (Zea mays L.), switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), and Miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus) will be grown on the current maize‐producing areas in the conterminous United States. We found that the maize ecosystem acts as a mild net carbon source while cellulosic ecosystems (i.e., switchgrass and Miscanthus) act as mild sinks. Nitrogen fertilizer use is an important factor affecting biomass production and N₂O emissions, especially in the maize ecosystem. To maintain high biomass productivity, the maize ecosystem emits much more GHG, including CO₂ and N₂O, than switchgrass and Miscanthus ecosystems, when high‐rate nitrogen fertilizers are applied. For maize, the global warming potential (GWP) amounts to 1–2 Mg CO₂eq ha^?1 yr^?1, with a dominant contribution of over 90% from N₂O emissions. Cellulosic crops contribute to the GWP of less than 0.3 Mg CO₂eq ha^?1 yr^?1. Among all three bioenergy crops, Miscanthus is the most biofuel productive and the least GHG intensive at a given cropland. Regional model simulations suggested that substituting Miscanthus for maize to produce biofuel could potentially save land and reduce GHG emissions.     

Primary production and carbon allocation in relation to nutrient supply in a tropical experimental forest

Nutrient supply commonly limits aboveground plant productivity in forests, but the effects of an altered nutrient supply on gross primary production (GPP) and patterns of carbon (C) allocation remain poorly characterized. Increased nutrient supply may lead to a higher aboveground net primary production (ANPP), but a lower total belowground carbon allocation (TBCA), with little change in either aboveground plant respiration (APR) or GPP. Alternatively, increases in nutrient supply may increase GPP, with the quantity of GPP allocated aboveground increasing more steeply than the quantity of GPP allocated belowground. To examine the effects of an elevated nutrient supply on the C allocation patterns in forests, we determined whole‐ecosystem C budgets in unfertilized plots of Eucalyptus saligna and in adjacent plots receiving regular additions of 65 kg N ha^?1, 31 kg P ha^?1, 46 kg K ha^?1, and macro‐ and micronutrients. We measured the absolute flux of C allocated to the components of GPP (ANPP, TBCA and APR), as well as the fraction of GPP allocated to these components. Fertilization dramatically increased GPP. Averaged over 3 years, GPP in the fertilized plots was 34% higher than that in the unfertilized controls (3.95 vs. 2.95 kg C m^?2 yr^?1). Fertilization‐related increases in GPP were allocated entirely aboveground – ANPP was 85% higher and APR was 57% higher in the fertilized than in the control plots, while TBCA did not differ significantly between treatments. Carbon use efficiency (NPP/GPP) was slightly higher in the fertilized (0.53) compared with the control plots (0.51). Overall, fertilization increased ANPP and APR, and these increases were related to a greater GPP and an increase in the fraction of GPP allocated aboveground.     

Predicting soil carbon changes in switchgrass grown on marginal lands under climate change and adaptation strategies

The United States Great Lakes Region (USGLR) is a critical geographic area for future bioenergy production. Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) is widely considered a carbon (C)‐neutral or C‐negative bioenergy production system, but projected increases in air temperature and precipitation due to climate change might substantially alter soil organic C (SOC) dynamics and storage in soils. This study examined long‐term SOC changes in switchgrass grown on marginal land in the USGLR under current and projected climate, predicted using a process‐based model (Systems Approach to Land‐Use Sustainability) extensively calibrated with a wealth of plant and soil measurements at nine experimental sites. Simulations indicate that these soils are likely a net C sink under switchgrass (average gain 0.87 Mg C ha^?1 year^?1), although substantial variation in the rate of SOC accumulation was predicted (range: 0.2–1.3 Mg C ha^?1 year^?1). Principal component analysis revealed that the predicted intersite variability in SOC sequestration was related in part to differences in climatic characteristics, and to a lesser extent, to heterogeneous soils. Although climate change impacts on switchgrass plant growth were predicted to be small (4%–6% decrease on average), the increased soil respiration was predicted to partially negate SOC accumulations down to 70% below historical rates in the most extreme scenarios. Increasing N fertilizer rate and decreasing harvest intensity both had modest SOC sequestration benefits under projected climate, whereas introducing genotypes better adapted to the longer growing seasons was a much more effective strategy. Best‐performing adaptation scenarios were able to offset >60% of the climate change impacts, leading to SOC sequestration 0.7 Mg C ha^?1 year^?1 under projected climate. On average, this was 0.3 Mg C ha^?1 year^?1 more C sequestered than the no adaptation baseline. These findings provide crucial knowledge needed to guide policy and operational management for maximizing SOC sequestration of future bioenergy production on marginal lands in the USGLR.     

Quantifying above‐ and belowground biomass carbon loss with forest conversion in tropical lowlands of Sumatra (Indonesia)

Natural forests in South‐East Asia have been extensively converted into other land‐use systems in the past decades and still show high deforestation rates. Historically, lowland forests have been converted into rubber forests, but more recently, the dominant conversion is into oil palm plantations. While it is expected that the large‐scale conversion has strong effects on the carbon cycle, detailed studies quantifying carbon pools and total net primary production (NPP_total) in above‐ and belowground tree biomass in land‐use systems replacing rainforest (incl. oil palm plantations) are rare so far. We measured above‐ and belowground carbon pools in tree biomass together with NPP_total in natural old‐growth forests, ‘jungle rubber’ agroforests under natural tree cover, and rubber and oil palm monocultures in Sumatra. In total, 32 stands (eight plot replicates per land‐use system) were studied in two different regions. Total tree biomass in the natural forest (mean: 384 Mg ha^?1) was more than two times higher than in jungle rubber stands (147 Mg ha^?1) and >four times higher than in monoculture rubber and oil palm plantations (78 and 50 Mg ha^?1). NPP_total was higher in the natural forest (24 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1) than in the rubber systems (20 and 15 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1), but was highest in the oil palm system (33 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1) due to very high fruit production (15–20 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1). NPP_total was dominated in all systems by aboveground production, but belowground productivity was significantly higher in the natural forest and jungle rubber than in plantations. We conclude that conversion of natural lowland forest into different agricultural systems leads to a strong reduction not only in the biomass carbon pool (up to 166 Mg C ha^?1) but also in carbon sequestration as carbon residence time (i.e. biomass‐C:NPP‐C) was 3–10 times higher in the natural forest than in rubber and oil palm plantations.     

Impacts of land use change due to biofuel crops on carbon balance,bioenergy production,and agricultural yield,in the conterminous United States

Growing concerns about energy and the environment have led to worldwide use of bioenergy. Switching from food crops to biofuel crops is an option to meet the fast‐growing need for biofuel feedstocks. This land use change consequently affects the ecosystem carbon balance. In this study, we used a biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, to evaluate the impacts of this change on the carbon balance, bioenergy production, and agricultural yield, assuming that several land use change scenarios from corn, soybean, and wheat to biofuel crops of switchgrass and Miscanthus will occur. We found that biofuel crops have much higher net primary production (NPP) than soybean and wheat crops. When food crops from current agricultural lands were changed to different biofuel crops, the national total NPP increased in all cases by a range of 0.14–0.88 Pg C yr^?1, except while switching from corn to switchgrass when a decrease of 14% was observed. Miscanthus is more productive than switchgrass, producing about 2.5 times the NPP of switchgrass. The net carbon loss ranges from 1.0 to 6.3 Tg C yr^?1 if food crops are changed to switchgrass, and from 0.4 to 6.7 Tg C yr^?1 if changed to Miscanthus. The largest loss was observed when soybean crops were replaced with biofuel crops. Soil organic carbon increased significantly when land use changed, reaching 100 Mg C ha^?1 in biofuel crop ecosystems. When switching from food crops to Miscanthus, the per unit area croplands produced a larger amount of ethanol than that of original food crops. In comparison, the land use change from wheat to Miscanthus produced more biomass and sequestrated more carbon. Our study suggests that Miscanthus could better serve as an energy crop than food crops or switchgrass, considering both economic and environmental benefits.     

Quantifying global greenhouse gas emissions from land‐use change for crop production

Many assessments of product carbon footprint (PCF) for agricultural products omit emissions arising from land‐use change (LUC). In this study, we developed a framework based on IPCC national greenhouse gas inventory methodologies to assess the impacts of LUC from crop production using oil palm, soybean and oilseed rape as examples. Using ecological zone, climate and soil types from the top 20 producing countries, calculated emissions for transitions from natural vegetation to cropland on mineral soils under typical management ranged from ?4.5 to 29.4 t CO₂‐eq ha^?1 yr^?1 over 20 years for oil palm and 1.2–47.5 t CO₂‐eq ha^?1 yr^?1 over 20 years for soybeans. Oilseed rape showed similar results to soybeans, but with lower maximum values because it is mainly grown in areas with lower C stocks. GHG emissions from other land‐use transitions were between 62% and 95% lower than those from natural vegetation for the arable crops, while conversions to oil palm were a sink for C. LUC emissions were considered on a national basis and also expressed per‐tonne‐of‐oil‐produced. Weighted global averages indicate that, depending on the land‐use transition, oil crop production on newly converted land contributes between ?3.1 and 7.0 t CO₂‐eq t oil production^?1 yr^?1 for palm oil, 11.9–50.6 t CO₂‐eq t oil production^?1 yr^?1 for soybean oil, and 7.7–31.4 t CO₂‐eq t oil production^?1 yr^?1 for rapeseed oil. Assumptions made about crop and LUC distribution within countries contributed up to 66% error around the global averages for natural vegetation conversions. Uncertainty around biomass and soil C stocks were also examined. Finer resolution data and information (particularly on land management and yield) could improve reliability of the estimates but the framework can be used in all global regions and represents an important step forward for including LUC emissions in PCFs.     

Plant roots and GHG mitigation in native perennial bioenergy cropping systems

Native perennial bioenergy crops can mitigate greenhouse gases (GHG) by displacing fossil fuels with renewable energy and sequestering atmospheric carbon (C) in soil and roots. The relative contribution of root C to net GHG mitigation potential has not been compared in perennial bioenergy crops ranging in species diversity and N fertility. We measured root biomass, C, nitrogen (N), and soil organic carbon (SOC) in the upper 90 cm of soil for five native perennial bioenergy crops managed with and without N fertilizer. Bioenergy crops ranged in species composition and were annually harvested for 6 (one location) and 7 years (three locations) following the seeding year. Total root biomass was 84% greater in switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) and a four‐species grass polyculture compared to high‐diversity polycultures; the difference was driven by more biomass at shallow soil depth (0–30 cm). Total root C (0–90 cm) ranged from 3.7 Mg C ha^?1 for a 12‐species mixture to 7.6 Mg C ha^?1 for switchgrass. On average, standing root C accounted for 41% of net GHG mitigation potential. After accounting for farm and ethanol production emissions, net GHG mitigation potential from fossil fuel offsets and root C was greatest for switchgrass (?8.4 Mg CO2e ha^?1 yr^?1) and lowest for high‐diversity mixtures (?4.5 Mg CO2e ha^?1 yr^?1). Nitrogen fertilizer did not affect net GHG mitigation potential or the contribution of roots to GHG mitigation for any bioenergy crop. SOC did not change and therefore did not contribute to GHG mitigation potential. However, associations among SOC, root biomass, and root C : N ratio suggest greater long‐term C storage in diverse polycultures vs. switchgrass. Carbon pools in roots have a greater effect on net GHG mitigation than SOC in the short‐term, yet variation in root characteristics may alter patterns in long‐term C storage among bioenergy crops.     

Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) offers sustainable bioenergy production and resilience to climate change

Biomass production on low‐grade land is needed to meet future energy demands and minimize resource conflicts. This, however, requires improvements in plant water‐use efficiency (WUE) that are beyond conventional C3 and C4 dedicated bioenergy crops. Here we present the first global‐scale geographic information system (GIS)‐based productivity model of two highly water‐efficient crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) candidates: Agave tequilana and Opuntia ficus‐indica. Features of these plants that translate to WUE advantages over C3 and C4 bioenergy crops include nocturnal stomatal opening, rapid rectifier‐like root hydraulic conductivity responses to fluctuating soil water potential and the capacity to buffer against periods of drought. Yield simulations for the year 2070 were performed under the four representative concentration pathway (RCPs) scenarios presented in the IPCC's 5th Assessment Report. Simulations on low‐grade land suggest that O. ficus‐indica alone has the capacity to meet ‘extreme’ bioenergy demand scenarios (>600 EJ yr^?1) and is highly resilient to climate change (?1%). Agave tequilana is moderately impacted (?11%). These results are significant because bioenergy demand scenarios >600 EJ yr^?1 could be met without significantly increasing conflicts with food production and contributing to deforestation. Both CAM candidates outperformed the C4 bioenergy crop, Panicum virgatum L. (switchgrass) in arid zones in the latitudinal range 30°S–30°N.     

Nitrogen and harvest effects on soil properties under rainfed switchgrass and no‐till corn over 9 years: implications for soil quality

Nitrogen fertilizer and harvest management will alter soils under bioenergy crop production and the long‐term effects of harvest timing and residue removal remain relatively unknown. Compared to no‐tilled corn (NT‐C, Zea mays L.), switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) is predicted to improve soil properties [i.e. soil organic C (SOC), soil microbial biomass (SMB‐C), and soil aggregation] due to its perennial nature and deep‐rooted growth form, but few explicit field comparisons exist. We assessed soil properties over 9 years for a rainfed study of N fertilizer rate (0, 60, 120, and 180 kg N ha^?1) and harvest management on switchgrass (harvested in August and postfrost) and NT‐C (with and without 50% stover removal) in eastern NE. We measured SOC, aggregate stability, SMB‐C, bulk density (BD), pH, P and K in the top 0–30 cm. Both NT‐C and switchgrass increased SMB‐C, SOC content, and aggregate stability over the 9 years, reflecting improvement from previous conventional management. However, the soils under switchgrass had double the percent aggregate stability, 1.3 times more microbial biomass, and a 5–8% decrease in bulk density in the 0–5 and 5–10 cm depths compared to NT‐C. After 9 years, cumulative decrease in available P was significantly greater beneath NT‐C (?24.0 kg P ha^?1) compared to switchgrass (?5.4 kg P ha^?1). When all measured soil parameters were included in the Soil Management Assessment Framework (SMAF), switchgrass improved soil quality index over time (ΔSQI) in all depths. NT‐C without residue removal did not affect ΔSQI, but 50% residue removal decreased ΔSQI (0–30 cm) due to reduced aggregate stability and SMB‐C. Even with best‐management practices such as NT, corn stover removal will have to be carefully managed to prevent soil degradation. Long‐term N and harvest management studies that include biological, chemical, and physical soil measurements are necessary to accurately assess bioenergy impacts on soils.     

A spatial model of climate change effects on yields and break‐even prices of switchgrass and miscanthus in Ontario,Canada

Concerns over global climate change have led many jurisdictions to implement strategies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas levels. One example is the replacement of coal with dedicated energy crops, such as switchgrass and miscanthus. The yields and costs of these potentially valuable bio‐energy crops have been evaluated in only a few cases, and previous studies have not focused on climate change effects. This article assesses the potential yields and costs of growing switchgrass and miscanthus on the agricultural land base in Ontario, Canada, under different climate assumptions, using a GIS‐based integrated biophysical and economic simulation model. The model shows that miscanthus has a mean peak yield that is 88.5% (29.6 t ha^?1 compared with 15.7 t ha^?1) higher and a mean farm gate break‐even price that is 25.9% ($58.20 per tonne compared with $73.29 per tonne) lower than switchgrass. The impact of climate change on the yield and break‐even price of switchgrass and miscanthus is dependent upon the climate model. CGCM3.1 predicts that mean peak yields of switchgrass and miscanthus could drop by 17.8% and 14.9%, whereas CCSM3.0 predicts that mean yields could increase to 41.4% and 44.9%, from 2071 to 2100, in the A2 climate scenario respectively. Both crops show promise as biomass sources for bio‐energy production, but a changing global climate, along with cultivar and planting technology developments, could affect crop choices.     

GHG emissions and other environmental impacts of indirect land use change mitigation

The implementation of measures to increase productivity and resource efficiency in food and bioenergy chains as well as to more sustainably manage land use can significantly increase the biofuel production potential while limiting the risk of causing indirect land use change (ILUC). However, the application of these measures may influence the greenhouse gas (GHG) balance and other environmental impacts of agricultural and biofuel production. This study applies a novel, integrated approach to assess the environmental impacts of agricultural and biofuel production for three ILUC mitigation scenarios, representing a low, medium and high miscanthus‐based ethanol production potential, and for three agricultural intensification pathways in terms of sustainability in Lublin province in 2020. Generally, the ILUC mitigation scenarios attain lower net annual emissions compared to a baseline scenario that excludes ILUC mitigation and bioethanol production. However, the reduction potential significantly depends on the intensification pathway considered. For example, in the moderate ILUC mitigation scenario, the net annual GHG emissions in the case study are 2.3 MtCO₂‐eq yr^?1 (1.8 tCO₂‐eq ha^?1 yr^?1) for conventional intensification and ?0.8 MtCO₂‐eq yr^?1 (?0.6 tCO₂‐eq ha^?1 yr^?1) for sustainable intensification, compared to 3.0 MtCO₂‐eq yr^?1 (2.3 tCO₂‐eq ha^?1 yr^?1) in the baseline scenario. In addition, the intensification pathway is found to be more influential for the GHG balance than the ILUC mitigation scenario, indicating the importance of how agricultural intensification is implemented in practice. Furthermore, when the net emissions are included in the assessment of GHG emissions from bioenergy, the ILUC mitigation scenarios often abate GHG emissions compared to gasoline. But sustainable intensification is required to attain GHG abatement potentials of 90% or higher. A qualitative assessment of the impacts on biodiversity, water quantity and quality, soil quality and air quality also emphasizes the importance of sustainable intensification.     

Long‐term impacts of manure amendments on carbon and greenhouse gas dynamics of rangelands

Livestock manure is applied to rangelands as an organic fertilizer to stimulate forage production, but the long‐term impacts of this practice on soil carbon (C) and greenhouse gas (GHG) dynamics are poorly known. We collected soil samples from manured and nonmanured fields on commercial dairies and found that manure amendments increased soil C stocks by 19.0 ± 7.3 Mg C ha^?1 and N stocks by 1.94 ± 0.63 Mg N ha^?1 compared to nonmanured fields (0–20 cm depth). Long‐term historical (1700–present) and future (present–2100) impacts of management on soil C and N dynamics, net primary productivity (NPP), and GHG emissions were modeled with DayCent. Modeled total soil C and N stocks increased with the onset of dairying. Nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions also increased by ~2 kg N₂O‐N ha^?1 yr^?1. These emissions were proportional to total N additions and offset 75–100% of soil C sequestration. All fields were small net methane (CH₄) sinks, averaging ?4.7 ± 1.2 kg CH₄‐C ha^?1 yr^?1. Overall, manured fields were net GHG sinks between 1954 and 2011 (?0.74 ± 0.73 Mg CO₂ e ha^?1 yr^?1, CO₂e are carbon dioxide equivalents), whereas nonmanured fields varied around zero. Future soil C pools stabilized 40–60 years faster in manured fields than nonmanured fields, at which point manured fields were significantly larger sources than nonmanured fields (1.45 ± 0.52 Mg CO₂e ha^?1 yr^?1 and 0.51 ± 0.60 Mg CO₂e ha^?1 yr^?1, respectively). Modeling also revealed a large background loss of soil C from the passive soil pool associated with the shift from perennial to annual grasses, equivalent to 29.4 ± 1.47 Tg CO₂e in California between 1820 and 2011. Manure applications increased NPP and soil C storage, but plant community changes and GHG emissions decreased, and eventually eliminated, the net climate benefit of this practice.     

Greenhouse gas fluxes from an Australian subtropical cropland under long‐term contrasting management regimes

The long‐term effects of conservation management practices on greenhouse gas fluxes from tropical/subtropical croplands remain to be uncertain. Using both manual and automatic sampling chambers, we measured N₂O and CH₄ fluxes at a long‐term experimental site (1968–present) in Queensland, Australia from 2006 to 2009. Annual net greenhouse gas fluxes (NGGF) were calculated from the 3‐year mean N₂O and CH₄ fluxes and the long‐term soil organic carbon changes. N₂O emissions exhibited clear daily, seasonal and interannual variations, highlighting the importance of whole‐year measurement over multiple years for obtaining temporally representative annual emissions. Averaged over 3 years, annual N₂O emissions from the unfertilized and fertilized soils (90 kg N ha^?1 yr^?1 as urea) amounted to 138 and 902 g N ha^?1, respectively. The average annual N₂O emissions from the fertilized soil were 388 g N ha^?1 lower under no‐till (NT) than under conventional tillage (CT) and 259 g N ha^?1 higher under stubble retention (SR) than under stubble burning (SB). Annual N₂O emissions from the unfertilized soil were similar between the contrasting tillage and stubble management practices. The average emission factors of fertilizer N were 0.91%, 1.20%, 0.52% and 0.77% for the CT‐SB, CT‐SR, NT‐SB and NT‐SR treatments, respectively. Annual CH₄ fluxes from the soil were very small (?200–300 g CH₄ ha^?1 yr^?1) with no significant difference between treatments. The NGGF were 277–350 kg CO₂‐e ha^?1 yr^?1 for the unfertilized treatments and 401–710 kg CO₂‐e ha^?1 yr^?1 for the fertilized treatments. Among the fertilized treatments, N₂O emissions accounted for 52–97% of NGGF and NT‐SR resulted in the lowest NGGF (401 kg CO₂‐e ha^?1 yr^?1 or 140 kg CO₂‐e t^?1 grain). Therefore, NT‐SR with improved N fertilizer management practices was considered the most promising management regime for simultaneously achieving maximal yield and minimal NGGF.     

Agricultural encroachment: implications for carbon sequestration in tropical African wetlands

Tropical wetlands have been shown to exhibit high rates of net primary productivity and may therefore play an important role in global climate change mitigation through carbon assimilation and sequestration. Many permanently flooded areas of tropical East Africa are dominated by the highly productive C₄ emergent macrophyte sedge, Cyperus papyrus L. (papyrus). However, increasing population densities around wetland margins in East Africa are reducing the extent of papyrus coverage due to the planting of subsistence crops such as Colocasia esculenta (cocoyam). In this paper, we assess the impact of this land use change on the carbon cycle and in particular the impacts of land conversion on net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange. Eddy covariance techniques were used, on a campaign basis, to measure fluxes of carbon dioxide over both papyrus and cocoyam dominated wetlands located on the Ugandan shore of Lake Victoria. Peak rates of net photosynthetic CO₂ assimilation, derived from monthly diurnal averages of net ecosystem exchange, of 28–35 μmol CO₂ m^?2 s^?1 and 15–20 μmol CO₂ m^?2 s^?1 were recorded in the papyrus and cocoyam wetlands, respectively, whereas night‐time respiratory losses ranged between 10 and 15 μmol CO₂ m^?2 s^?1 at the papyrus wetland and 5–10 μmol CO₂ m^?2 s^?1 at the cocoyam site. The integration of the flux data suggests that papyrus wetlands have the potential to act as a sink for significant amounts of carbon, in the region of 10 t C ha^?1 yr^?1. The cocoyam vegetation assimilated ~7 t C ha^?1 yr^?1 but when carbon exports from crop biomass removal were accounted for these wetlands represent a significant net loss of carbon of similar magnitude. The development of sustainable wetland management strategies are therefore required to promote the dual wetland function of crop production and the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions especially under future climate change scenarios.     

The dynamics of soil redistribution and the implications for soil organic carbon accounting in agricultural south‐eastern Australia

Anthropogenically induced change in soil redistribution plays an important role in the soil organic carbon (SOC) budget. Uncertainty of its impact is large because of the dearth of recent soil redistribution estimates concomitant with changing land use and management practices. An Australian national survey used the artificial radionuclide caesium‐137 (¹³⁷Cs) to estimate net (1950s–1990) soil redistribution. South‐eastern Australia showed a median net soil loss of 9.7 t ha^?1 yr^?1. We resurveyed the region using the same ¹³⁷Cs technique and found a median net (1990–2010) soil gain of 3.9 t ha^?1 yr^?1 with an interquartile range from ?1.6 t ha^?1 yr^?1 to +10.7 t ha^?1 yr^?1. Despite this variation, soil erosion across the region has declined as a likely consequence of the widespread adoption of soil conservation measures over the last ca 30 years. The implication of omitted soil redistribution dynamics in SOC accounting is to increase uncertainty and diminish its accuracy.