Patterns and controlling factors of species diversity in the Arctic Ocean

Aim The Arctic Ocean is one of the last near‐pristine regions on Earth, and, although human activities are expected to impact on Arctic ecosystems, we know very little about baseline patterns of Arctic Ocean biodiversity. This paper aims to describe Arctic Ocean‐wide patterns of benthic biodiversity and to explore factors related to the large‐scale species diversity patterns. Location Arctic Ocean. Methods We used large ostracode and foraminiferal datasets to describe the biodiversity patterns and applied comprehensive ecological modelling to test the degree to which these patterns are potentially governed by environmental factors, such as temperature, productivity, seasonality, ice cover and others. To test environmental control of the observed diversity patterns, subsets of samples for which all environmental parameters were available were analysed with multiple regression and model averaging. Results Well‐known negative latitudinal species diversity gradients (LSDGs) were found in metazoan Ostracoda, but the LSDGs were unimodal with an intermediate maximum with respect to latitude in protozoan foraminifera. Depth species diversity gradients were unimodal, with peaks in diversity shallower than those in other oceans. Our modelling results showed that several factors are significant predictors of diversity, but the significant predictors were different among shallow marine ostracodes, deep‐sea ostracodes and deep‐sea foraminifera. Main conclusions On the basis of these Arctic Ocean‐wide comprehensive datasets, we document large‐scale diversity patterns with respect to latitude and depth. Our modelling results suggest that the underlying mechanisms causing these species diversity patterns are unexpectedly complex. The environmental parameters of temperature, surface productivity, seasonality of productivity, salinity and ice cover can all play a role in shaping large‐scale diversity patterns, but their relative importance may depend on the ecological preferences of taxa and the oceanographic context of regions. These results suggest that a multiplicity of variables appear to be related to community structure in this system.     

Sea ice phenology and timing of primary production pulses in the Arctic Ocean

Arctic organisms are adapted to the strong seasonality of environmental forcing. A small timing mismatch between biological processes and the environment could potentially have significant consequences for the entire food web. Climate warming causes shrinking ice coverage and earlier ice retreat in the Arctic, which is likely to change the timing of primary production. In this study, we test predictions on the interactions among sea ice phenology and production timing of ice algae and pelagic phytoplankton. We do so using the following (1) a synthesis of available satellite observation data; and (2) the application of a coupled ice‐ocean ecosystem model. The data and model results suggest that, over a large portion of the Arctic marginal seas, the timing variability in ice retreat at a specific location has a strong impact on the timing variability in pelagic phytoplankton peaks, but weak or no impact on the timing of ice‐algae peaks in those regions. The model predicts latitudinal and regional differences in the timing of ice algae biomass peak (varying from April to May) and the time lags between ice algae and pelagic phytoplankton peaks (varying from 45 to 90 days). The correlation between the time lag and ice retreat is significant in areas where ice retreat has no significant impact on ice‐algae peak timing, suggesting that changes in pelagic phytoplankton peak timing control the variability in time lags. Phenological variability in primary production is likely to have consequences for higher trophic levels, particularly for the zooplankton grazers, whose main food source is composed of the dually pulsed algae production of the Arctic.     

An avian terrestrial predator of the Arctic relies on the marine ecosystem during winter

Top predators of the arctic tundra are facing a long period of very low prey availability during winter and subsidies from other ecosystems such as the marine environment may help to support their populations. Satellite tracking of snowy owls, a top predator of the tundra, revealed that most adult females breeding in the Canadian Arctic overwinter at high latitudes in the eastern Arctic and spend several weeks (up to 101 d) on the sea‐ice between December and April. Analysis of high‐resolution satellite images of sea‐ice indicated that owls were primarily gathering around open water patches in the ice, which are commonly used by wintering seabirds, a potential prey. Such extensive use of sea‐ice by a tundra predator considered a small mammal specialist was unexpected, and suggests that marine resources subsidize snowy owl populations in winter. As sea‐ice regimes in winter are expected to change over the next decades due to climate warming, this may affect the wintering strategy of this top predator and ultimately the functioning of the tundra ecosystem.     

Marine Ecology of Seabirds in Polar Oceans

Patterns of seabird species' distributions differ between theAntarctic and the Arctic. In the Antarctic, distributions areannular or latitudinal, with strong similarities in speciescomposition of seabird communities in all ocean basins at agiven latitude. In the Arctic, communities are arranged meridionally,and show strong differences between ocean basins and, at a givenlatitude, between sides of ocean basins. These differences betweenthe seabird communi ies in the Northern Hemisphere and the SouthernHemisphere reflect differences in the patterns of flow of majorocean current systems. At smaller spatial scales, in both hemispheresthe species composition of seabird communities is sensitiveto changes in watermass characteristics. The distribution of avian biomass is affected by both physicaland biological features of the ocean. In the Antarctic, muchseabird foraging is over deep water, and withinseason, small-scalepatchiness in prey abundance and availability in ice-free watersis likely to be controlledprimarily by the behavior of the prey,rather than by physical features. Thus, prey availability maybe unpredictable in time and space. In contrast, in the NorthernHemisphere, most seabirdforaging is concentrated over shallowcontinental shelves, where currents interact with bathymetryto produce predictable physical features capable of concentratingprey or making prey more easily harvested by seabirds. Ice cover appears to be the most important physical featurein the Antarctic. An entire community of birds is specializedto use prey taken near the ice edge. These prey consist of avariety of species, some of which are normally found much deeperin the water than the birds takingthem can dive. The open-waterportion of the marginal ice zone is also an important foraginghabitat for Antarctic marine birds. In the Arctic, a food webbased on underice algae is used by marine birds, but few ifany data exist on avian use of the open water segment of themarginal ice zone. Recent simultaneous surveys of birds and their prey indicatethat only rarely does the small-scale abundance of birds matchthat of their prey; correlations between predators and preyaregenerally stronger at larger scales. Evidence is accumulatingin the Antarctic that the largestaggregations of krill may bedisproportionately important to foraging seabirds.     

Increasing nest predation will be insufficient to maintain polar bear body condition in the face of sea ice loss

Climate change can influence interspecific interactions by differentially affecting species‐specific phenology. In seasonal ice environments, there is evidence that polar bear predation of Arctic bird eggs is increasing because of earlier sea ice breakup, which forces polar bears into nearshore terrestrial environments where Arctic birds are nesting. Because polar bears can consume a large number of nests before becoming satiated, and because they can swim between island colonies, they could have dramatic influences on seabird and sea duck reproductive success. However, it is unclear whether nest foraging can provide an energetic benefit to polar bear populations, especially given the capacity of bird populations to redistribute in response to increasing predation pressure. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit agent‐based model of the predator–prey relationship between polar bears and common eiders, a common and culturally important bird species for northern peoples. Our model is composed of two types of agents (polar bear agents and common eider hen agents) whose movements and decision heuristics are based on species‐specific bioenergetic and behavioral ecological principles, and are influenced by historical and extrapolated sea ice conditions. Our model reproduces empirical findings that polar bear predation of bird nests is increasing and predicts an accelerating relationship between advancing ice breakup dates and the number of nests depredated. Despite increases in nest predation, our model predicts that polar bear body condition during the ice‐free period will continue to decline. Finally, our model predicts that common eider nests will become more dispersed and will move closer to the mainland in response to increasing predation, possibly increasing their exposure to land‐based predators and influencing the livelihood of local people that collect eider eggs and down. These results show that predator–prey interactions can have nonlinear responses to changes in climate and provides important predictions of ecological change in Arctic ecosystems.     

Arctic warming: nonlinear impacts of sea‐ice and glacier melt on seabird foraging

Arctic climate change has profound impacts on the cryosphere, notably via shrinking sea‐ice cover and retreating glaciers, and it is essential to evaluate and forecast the ecological consequences of such changes. We studied zooplankton‐feeding little auks (Alle alle), a key sentinel species of the Arctic, at their northernmost breeding site in Franz‐Josef Land (80°N), Russian Arctic. We tested the hypothesis that little auks still benefit from pristine arctic environmental conditions in this remote area. To this end, we analysed remote sensing data on sea‐ice and coastal glacier dynamics collected in our study area across 1979–2013. Further, we recorded little auk foraging behaviour using miniature electronic tags attached to the birds in the summer of 2013, and compared it with similar data collected at three localities across the Atlantic Arctic. We also compared current and historical data on Franz‐Josef Land little auk diet, morphometrics and chick growth curves. Our analyses reveal that summer sea‐ice retreated markedly during the last decade, leaving the Franz‐Josef Land archipelago virtually sea‐ice free each summer since 2005. This had a profound impact on little auk foraging, which lost their sea‐ice‐associated prey. Concomitantly, large coastal glaciers retreated rapidly, releasing large volumes of melt water. Zooplankton is stunned by cold and osmotic shock at the boundary between glacier melt and coastal waters, creating new foraging hotspots for little auks. Birds therefore switched from foraging at distant ice‐edge localities, to highly profitable feeding at glacier melt‐water fronts within <5 km of their breeding site. Through this behavioural plasticity, little auks maintained their chick growth rates, but showed a 4% decrease in adult body mass. Our study demonstrates that arctic cryosphere changes may have antagonistic ecological consequences on coastal trophic flow. Such nonlinear responses complicate modelling exercises of current and future polar ecosystem dynamics.     

Killer whales (Orcinus orca) in the Canadian Arctic: Distribution,prey items,group sizes,and seasonality

Killer whales (Orcinus orca) have a global distribution, but many high‐latitude populations are not well studied. We provide a comprehensive review of the history and ecology of killer whales in the Canadian Arctic, for which there has previously been little information. We compiled a database of 450 sightings spanning over 15 decades (1850–2008) to document the historical occurrence, distribution, feeding ecology, and seasonality of killer whales observed throughout the region. Sighting reports per decade increased substantially since 1850 and were most frequent in the eastern Canadian Arctic. The mean reported group size was 8.3 (median = 4, range 1–100), but size varied significantly among regions and observed prey types. Observations of predation events indicate that Canadian Arctic killer whales prey upon other marine mammals. Monodontids were the most frequently observed prey items, followed by bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus), phocids, and groups of mixed mammal prey. No killer whale sightings occurred during winter, with sightings gradually increasing from early spring to a peak in summer, after which sightings gradually decreased. Our results suggest that killer whales are established, at least seasonally, throughout the Canadian Arctic, and we discuss potential ecological implications of increased presence with declining sea ice extent and duration.     

Predator density and the functional responses of coral reef fish

Predation is a key process driving coral reef fish population dynamics, with higher per capita prey mortality rates on reefs with more predators. Reef predators often forage together, and at high densities, they may either cooperate or antagonize one another, thereby causing prey mortality rates to be substantially higher or lower than one would expect if predators did not interact. However, we have a limited mechanistic understanding of how prey mortality rates change with predator densities. We re-analyzed a previously published observational dataset to investigate how the foraging response of the coney grouper (Cephalopholis fulva) feeding on the bluehead wrasse (Thalassoma bifasciatum) changed with shifts in predator and prey densities. Using a model-selection approach, we found that per-predator feeding rates were most consistent with a functional response that declines as predator density increases, suggesting either antagonistic interactions among predators or a shared antipredator behavioral response by the prey. Our findings suggest that variation in predator density (natural or anthropogenic) may have substantial consequences for coral reef fish population dynamics.     

Local genetic adaptation generates latitude‐specific effects of warming on predator–prey interactions

Temperature effects on predator–prey interactions are fundamental to better understand the effects of global warming. Previous studies never considered local adaptation of both predators and prey at different latitudes, and ignored the novel population combinations of the same predator–prey species system that may arise because of northward dispersal. We set up a common garden warming experiment to study predator–prey interactions between Ischnura elegans damselfly predators and Daphnia magna zooplankton prey from three source latitudes spanning >1500 km. Damselfly foraging rates showed thermal plasticity and strong latitudinal differences consistent with adaptation to local time constraints. Relative survival was higher at 24 °C than at 20 °C in southern Daphnia and higher at 20 °C than at 24 °C, in northern Daphnia indicating local thermal adaptation of the Daphnia prey. Yet, this thermal advantage disappeared when they were confronted with the damselfly predators of the same latitude, reflecting also a signal of local thermal adaptation in the damselfly predators. Our results further suggest the invasion success of northward moving predators as well as prey to be latitude‐specific. We advocate the novel common garden experimental approach using predators and prey obtained from natural temperature gradients spanning the predicted temperature increase in the northern populations as a powerful approach to gain mechanistic insights into how community modules will be affected by global warming. It can be used as a space‐for‐time substitution to inform how predator–prey interaction may gradually evolve to long‐term warming.     

Functional responses in polar bear habitat selection

Habitat selection may occur in situations in which animals experience a trade-off, e.g. between the use of habitats with abundant forage and the use of safer retreat habitats with little forage. Such trade-offs may yield relative habitat use conditional on the relative availability of the different habitat types, as proportional use of foraging habitat may exceed proportional availability when foraging habitat is scarce, but be less than availability when foraging habitat is abundant. Hence, trade-offs in habitat use may result in functional responses in habitat use (i.e. change in relative use with changing availability). We used logistic and log-linear models to model functional responses in female polar bear habitat use based on satellite telemetry data from two contiguous populations; one near shore inhabiting sea ice within fjords, and one inhabiting pelagic drift ice. Open ice, near the ice edge, is a highly dynamic habitat hypothesised to be important polar bear habitat due to high prey availability. In open ice-polar bears may experience a high energetic cost of movements and risk drifting away from the main ice field (i.e. trade off between feeding and energy saving or safety). If polar bears were constrained by ice dynamics we therefore predicted use of retreat habitats with greater ice coverage relative to habitats used for hunting. The polar bears demonstrated season and population specific functional responses in habitat use, likely reflecting seasonal and regional variation in use of retreat and foraging habitats. We suggest that in seasons with functional responses in habitat use, polar bear space use and population distribution may not be a mere reflection of prey availability but rather reflect the alternate allocation of time in hunting and retreat habitats.     

Spatial and temporal operation of the Scotia Sea ecosystem: a review of large-scale links in a krill centred food web

The Scotia Sea ecosystem is a major component of the circumpolar Southern Ocean system, where productivity and predator demand for prey are high. The eastward-flowing Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and waters from the Weddell-Scotia Confluence dominate the physics of the Scotia Sea, leading to a strong advective flow, intense eddy activity and mixing. There is also strong seasonality, manifest by the changing irradiance and sea ice cover, which leads to shorter summers in the south. Summer phytoplankton blooms, which at times can cover an area of more than 0.5 million km2, probably result from the mixing of micronutrients into surface waters through the flow of the ACC over the Scotia Arc. This production is consumed by a range of species including Antarctic krill, which are the major prey item of large seabird and marine mammal populations. The flow of the ACC is steered north by the Scotia Arc, pushing polar water to lower latitudes, carrying with it krill during spring and summer, which subsidize food webs around South Georgia and the northern Scotia Arc. There is also marked interannual variability in winter sea ice distribution and sea surface temperatures that is linked to southern hemisphere-scale climate processes such as the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation. This variation affects regional primary and secondary production and influences biogeochemical cycles. It also affects krill population dynamics and dispersal, which in turn impacts higher trophic level predator foraging, breeding performance and population dynamics. The ecosystem has also been highly perturbed as a result of harvesting over the last two centuries and significant ecological changes have also occurred in response to rapid regional warming during the second half of the twentieth century. This combination of historical perturbation and rapid regional change highlights that the Scotia Sea ecosystem is likely to show significant change over the next two to three decades, which may result in major ecological shifts.     

Latitudinal diversity gradients for brachiopod genera during late Palaeozoic time: links between climate, biogeography and evolutionary rates

Aim The latitudinal diversity gradient, in which taxonomic richness is greatest at low latitudes and declines towards the poles, is a pervasive feature of the biota through geological time. This study utilizes fossil data to examine how the latitudinal diversity gradient and associated spatial patterns covaried through the major climate shifts at the onset and end of the late Palaeozoic ice age. Location Data were acquired from fossil localities from around the world. Methods Latitudinal patterns of diversity, mean geographical range size and macroevolutionary rates were constructed from a literature‐derived data base of occurrences of fossil brachiopod genera in space and time. The literature search resulted in a total of 18,596 occurrences for 991 genera from 2320 localities. Results Climate changes associated with the onset of the late Palaeozoic ice age (c. 327 Ma) altered the biogeographical structure of the brachiopod fauna by the preferential elimination of narrowly distributed, largely tropical genera when glaciation began. Because the oceans were left populated primarily with widespread genera, the slope of the diversity gradient became gentle at this time, and the gradient of average latitudinal range size weakened. In addition, because narrowly distributed genera had intrinsically high rates of origination and extinction, the gradients of both of these macroevolutionary rates were also reduced. These patterns were reversed when the ice age climate abated in early Permian time (c. 290 Ma): narrowly distributed genera rediversified at low latitudes, restoring steep gradients of diversity, average latitudinal range size and macroevolutionary rates. Main conclusions During late Palaeozoic time, these latitudinal gradients for brachiopods may have been linked by the increased magnitude of seasonality during the late Palaeozoic ice age. Pronounced seasonality would have prevented the existence of genera with narrow latitudinal ranges. These results for the late Palaeozoic ice age suggest a climatic basis for the present‐day latitudinal diversity gradient.     

Killer whale abundance and predicted narwhal consumption in the Canadian Arctic

Range expansions and increases in the frequency of killer whale (Orcinus orca) sightings have been documented in the eastern Canadian Arctic, presumably the result of climate change‐related sea‐ice declines. However, the effects of increased predator occurrence on this marine ecosystem remain largely unknown. We explore the consequences of climate change‐related range expansions by a top predator by estimating killer whale abundance and their possible consumptive effects on narwhal (Monodon monoceros) in the Canadian Arctic. Individual killer whales can be identified using characteristics such as acquired scars and variation in the shape and size of their dorsal fins. Capture–mark–recapture analysis of 63 individually identifiable killer whales photographed between 2009 and 2018 suggests a population size of 163 ± 27. This number of killer whales could consume >1,000 narwhal during their seasonal residency in Arctic waters. The effects of such mortality at the ecosystem level are uncertain, but trophic cascades caused by top predators, including killer whales, have been documented elsewhere. These findings illustrate the magnitude of ecosystem‐level modifications that can occur with climate change‐related shifts in predator distributions.     

Global patterns in the effects of predator declines on sea urchins

Latitudinal gradients in the strength of biotic interactions have long been proposed, but empirical evidence for the expectation of more intense predation, herbivory and competition at low latitudes has been mixed. Here, we use a meta‐analysis to test the prediction that predation pressure on sea urchins, a group of consumers with a particularly strong influence on community structure in the world's oceans, is strongest in the tropics. We then examine which biotic and abiotic factors best correlate with biogeographic and within habitat patterns in sea urchin responses to predation. Consistent with expectations, predator impacts on sea urchins were highest in tropical coral reefs and decreased towards the poles in rocky reef habitats (> 25° absolute latitude). However, latitude and temperature were weakly correlated with effect sizes, and the strongest predictor of predator impacts was sea urchin species. This suggests an important role of prey identity (i.e. traits including behaviour, physical, and chemical defences) rather than large scale abiotic factors in determining variation in interaction strengths. Ecosystem‐shaping sea urchins such as Tripneustes gratilla, Diadema savignyi and Centrostephanus rodgersii were strongly impacted by consumers, indicating a tight coupling between predators of these species and their boom and bust prey. Anthropogenic activities such as over‐fishing, climate change and habitat destruction are causing rapid environmental change, and understanding how predation pressure varies with temperature, across habitats and among prey species, will aid in predicting the likelihood of ecosystem wide effects (via trophic cascades).     

Combined climate‐ and prey‐mediated range expansion of Humboldt squid (Dosidicus gigas), a large marine predator in the California Current System

Climate‐driven range shifts are ongoing in pelagic marine environments, and ecosystems must respond to combined effects of altered species distributions and environmental drivers. Hypoxic oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) in midwater environments are shoaling globally; this can affect distributions of species both geographically and vertically along with predator–prey dynamics. Humboldt (jumbo) squid (Dosidicus gigas) are highly migratory predators adapted to hypoxic conditions that may be deleterious to their competitors and predators. Consequently, OMZ shoaling may preferentially facilitate foraging opportunities for Humboldt squid. With two separate modeling approaches using unique, long‐term data based on in situ observations of predator, prey, and environmental variables, our analyses suggest that Humboldt squid are indirectly affected by OMZ shoaling through effects on a primary food source, myctophid fishes. Our results suggest that this indirect linkage between hypoxia and foraging is an important driver of the ongoing range expansion of Humboldt squid in the northeastern Pacific Ocean.     

Prey‐specific foraging tactics in a web‐building spider

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Correlates of seasonal change in the body condition of an Arctic top predator

Climate‐driven sea ice loss has led to changes in the timing of key biological events in the Arctic, however, the consequences and rate of these changes remain largely unknown. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) undergo seasonal changes in energy stores in relation to foraging opportunities and habitat conditions. Declining sea ice has been linked to reduced body condition in some subpopulations, however, the specific timing and duration of the feeding period when bears acquire most of their energy stores and its relationship to the timing of ice break‐up is poorly understood. We used community‐based sampling to investigate seasonality in body condition (energy stores) of polar bears in Nunavut, Canada, and examined the influence of sea ice variables. We used adipose tissue lipid content as an index of body condition for 1,206 polar bears harvested from 2010–2017 across five subpopulations with varying seasonal ice conditions: Baffin Bay (October–August), Davis Strait and Foxe Basin (year‐round), Gulf of Boothia and Lancaster Sound (August–May). Similar seasonal patterns were found in body condition across subpopulations with bears at their nadir of condition in the spring, followed by fat accumulation past break‐up date and subsequent peak body condition in autumn, indicating that bears are actively foraging in late spring and early summer. Late season feeding implies that even minor advances in the timing of break‐up may have detrimental effects on foraging opportunities, body condition, and subsequent reproduction and survival. The magnitude of seasonal changes in body condition varied across the study area, presumably driven by local environmental conditions. Our results demonstrate how community‐based monitoring of polar bears can reveal population‐level responses to climate warming in advance of detectable demographic change. Our data on the seasonal timing of polar bear foraging and energy storage should inform predictive models of the effects of climate‐mediated sea ice loss.     

Predator density and competition modify the benefits of group formation in a shoaling reef fish

Synthesis Predation risk experienced by individuals living in groups depends on the balance between predator dilution, competition for refuges, and predator interference or synergy. These interactions operate between prey species as well: the benefits of group living decline in the presence of an alternative prey species. We apply a novel model‐fitting approach to data from field experiments to distinguish among competing hypotheses about shifts in predator foraging behavior across a range of predator and prey densities. Our study provides novel analytical tools for analyzing predator foraging behavior and offers insight into the processes driving the dynamics of coral reef fish. Studies of predator foraging behavior typically focus on single prey species and fixed predator densities, ignoring the potential importance of complexities such as predator dilution; predator‐mediated effects of alternative prey; heterospecific competition; or predator–predator interactions. Neglecting the effects of prey density is particularly problematic for prey species that live in mixed species groups, where the beneficial effects of predator dilution may swamp the negative effects of heterospecific competition. Here we use field experiments to investigate how the mortality rates of a shoaling coral reef fish (a wrasse: Thalassoma amblycephalum), change as a result of variation in: 1) conspecific density, 2) density of a predator (a hawkfish: Paracirrhites arcatus), and 3) presence of an alternative prey species that competes for space (a damselfish: Pomacentrus pavo). We quantify changes in prey mortality rates from the predator's perspective, examining the effects of added predators or a second prey species on the predator's functional response. Our analysis highlights a model‐fitting approach that discriminates amongst multiple hypotheses about predator foraging in a community context. Wrasse mortality decreased with increasing conspecific density (i.e. mortality was inversely density‐dependent). The addition of a second predator doubled prey mortality rates, without significantly changing attack rate or handling time – i.e. there was no evidence for predator interference. The presence of a second prey species increased wrasse mortality by 95%; we attribute this increase either to short‐term apparent competition (predator aggregation) or to a decrease in handling time of the predator (e.g. through decreased wrasse vigilance). In this system, 1) prey benefit from intraspecific group living though a reduced predation risk, and 2) the benefit of group living is reduced in the presence of an alternative prey species.     

Climate warming decreases the survival of the little auk (Alle alle), a high Arctic avian predator

Delayed maturity, low fecundity, and high adult survival are traits typical for species with a long‐life expectancy. For such species, even a small change in adult survival can strongly affect the population dynamics and viability. We examined the effects of both regional and local climatic variability on adult survival of the little auk, a long‐lived and numerous Arctic seabird species. We conducted a mark‐resighting study for a period of 8 years (2006‐2013) simultaneously at three little auk breeding sites that are influenced by the West Spitsbergen Current, which is the main carrier of warm, Atlantic water into the Arctic. We found that the survival of adult little auks was negatively correlated with both the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and local summer sea surface temperature (SST), with a time lag of 2 and 1 year, respectively. The effects of NAO and SST were likely mediated through a change in food quality and/or availability: (1) reproduction, growth, and development of Arctic Calanus copepods, the main prey of little auks, are negatively influenced by a reduction in sea ice, reduced ice algal production, and an earlier but shorter lasting spring bloom, all of which result from an increased NAO; (2) a high sea surface temperature shortens the reproductive period of Arctic Calanus, decreasing the number of eggs produced. A synchronous variation in survival rates at the different colonies indicates that climatic forcing was similar throughout the study area. Our findings suggest that a predicted warmer climate in the Arctic will negatively affect the population dynamics of the little auk, a high Arctic avian predator.     

Differential Avoidance of Snake Odours by a Lizard: Evidence for Prioritized Avoidance Based on Risk

Most studies of predator avoidance behaviours have focussed on single‐predator systems, despite the fact that prey often are confronted with predator rich environments. In the presence of more than one predator, prey may have to choose between avoiding one predator over another. How prey cope with exposure to several enemies simultaneously remains largely untested. In this study I set out to investigate if skinks showed preferential avoidance of snake odours based on the relative predation risk posed by different snake species. This relative predation risk was estimated using information on density, diet specificity and foraging habit of each snake species. I tested retreat‐site selection in two‐choice tests, where lizards chose between different combinations of control and snake treated retreat‐sites as well as two retreat‐sites treated with different snake species odours. Lizards preferred control–treated retreat‐sites to those treated with snake odours and showed a differential avoidance response to refuges treated with odours from different snake species. There was strong evidence to suggest that lizards preferentially avoided refuges with the odours of the snake that posed the greatest predation risk, the white‐lipped snake (Drysdalia coronoides). Naïve juvenile lizards were also tested and their response was similar to the adults demonstrating that the behaviour is innate and not the result of higher encounter rates of more common snake odours. To my knowledge this is one of the first studies to demonstrate that prey can prioritize avoidance to a single most dangerous predator in the face of several predators and conflicting avoidance responses.