Why climate change will invariably alter selection pressures on phenology

The seasonal timing of lifecycle events is closely linked to individual fitness and hence, maladaptation in phenological traits may impact population dynamics. However, few studies have analysed whether and why climate change will alter selection pressures and hence possibly induce maladaptation in phenology. To fill this gap, we here use a theoretical modelling approach. In our models, the phenologies of consumer and resource are (potentially) environmentally sensitive and depend on two different but correlated environmental variables. Fitness of the consumer depends on the phenological match with the resource. Because we explicitly model the dependence of the phenologies on environmental variables, we can test how differential (heterogeneous) versus equal (homogeneous) rates of change in the environmental variables affect selection on consumer phenology. As expected, under heterogeneous change, phenotypic plasticity is insufficient and thus selection on consumer phenology arises. However, even homogeneous change leads to directional selection on consumer phenology. This is because the consumer reaction norm has historically evolved to be flatter than the resource reaction norm, owing to time lags and imperfect cue reliability. Climate change will therefore lead to increased selection on consumer phenology across a broad range of situations.     

Scale and the detection of climatic influences on the productivity of salmon populations

Ecological studies relating population parameters to climate conditions are limited by a lack of experimental control systems and rely instead on correlative evidence to draw inferences about how populations respond to environmental forcing. Consequently, some correlations turn out to be spurious and not ecologically meaningful. To strengthen inferences, multiple populations may be examined simultaneously to confirm whether relationships can be generalized across multiple systems; however, this assumes that populations respond similarly to climate drivers, ignoring the potential for ecological complexity. Using data on eight sockeye salmon populations from southwestern Alaska, we constructed a series of models based on ecological hypotheses, relating salmon population productivity to climate factors experienced at different life stages. We modeled populations at a range of organizational scales, from distinct populations, to populations grouped by common nursery lake, to all populations within a watershed, and determined the relative statistical support for climate drivers at each scale. In general, warmer lake and sea surface temperatures in the summer coincided with increased productivity of these populations, but the most sensitive life‐stage for climate effects varied among populations, particularly among nursery lakes. The best model when considering all populations together, despite strong statistical support, failed to represent the complexity which became evident when populations were modeled by common nursery lake, or independently. These results emphasize that the most appropriate organizational scale to model salmon stocks will depend on specific management, scientific, or conservation goals.     

Keeping up with a warming world; assessing the rate of adaptation to climate change

The pivotal question in the debate on the ecological effects of climate change is whether species will be able to adapt fast enough to keep up with their changing environment. If we establish the maximal rate of adaptation, this will set an upper limit to the rate at which temperatures can increase without loss of biodiversity.The rate of adaptation will primarily be set by the rate of microevolution since (i) phenotypic plasticity alone is not sufficient as reaction norms will no longer be adaptive and hence microevolution on the reaction norm is needed, (ii) learning will be favourable to the individual but cannot be passed on to the next generations, (iii) maternal effects may play a role but, as with other forms of phenotypic plasticity, the response of offspring to the maternal cues will no longer be adaptive in a changing environment, and (iv) adaptation via immigration of individuals with genotypes adapted to warmer environments also involves microevolution as these genotypes are better adapted in terms of temperature, but not in terms of, for instance, photoperiod.Long-term studies on wild populations with individually known animals play an essential role in detecting and understanding the temporal trends in life-history traits, and to estimate the heritability of, and selection pressures on, life-history traits. However, additional measurements on other trophic levels and on the mechanisms underlying phenotypic plasticity are needed to predict the rate of microevolution, especially under changing conditions.Using this knowledge on heritability of, and selection on, life-history traits, in combination with climate scenarios, we will be able to predict the rate of adaptation for different climate scenarios. The final step is to use ecoevolutionary dynamical models to make the link to population viability and from there to biodiversity loss for those scenarios where the rate of adaptation is insufficient.