Projected drought effects on the demography of Ashe juniper populations inferred from remote measurements of tree canopies

Tree mortality from drought is anticipated to increase as climate change promotes more frequent or severe water limitation. Ecosystem impacts of woody mortality depend on both the number and sizes of trees that die, but a limited capacity to predict mortality risk for individual trees hinders the capacity to forecast drought effects on tree population demography and ecosystem processes. We remotely measured leaf area of living Ashe juniper trees at three savanna sites in central Texas, USA to characterize the frequency-size distribution (FSD) of juniper populations and evaluate mortality risk from drought as a function of tree size. Mortality risk of individuals was assessed from the deviation in leaf area per tree from that of a similarly sized individual with near maximal leaf area using correlations among leaf area, growth rate, and mortality measured during a prior drought. We found that the FSD of juniper trees is bell-shaped at each site. Mortality risk from drought exceeded 25% of emergent (>?4 m height) trees in savanna juniper populations, but was highest for largest trees. Mortality risk was greatest at a grazed savanna, exceeding 50% of trees with projected canopy area >?20 m². Results imply that severe drought could kill a large fraction (18–85%) of intermediate- to large-sized Ashe juniper trees in central Texas savannas. Our analysis demonstrates a novel use of remote measurements of canopy foliation to link mortality risk from drought to the demography of Ashe juniper populations through properties of individual trees.     

Postfire soil water repellency in piñon–juniper woodlands: Extent,severity, and thickness relative to ecological site characteristics and climate

Wildfires can create or intensify water repellency in soil, limiting the soil's capacity to wet and retain water. The objective of this research was to quantify soil water repellency characteristics within burned piñon–juniper woodlands and relate this information to ecological site characteristics. We sampled soil water repellency across forty‐one 1,000 m² study plots within three major wildfires that burned in piñon–juniper woodlands. Water repellency was found to be extensive—present at 37% of the total points sampled—and strongly related to piñon–juniper canopy cover. Models developed for predicting SWR extent and severity had R²_adj values of 0.67 and 0.61, respectively; both models included piñon–juniper canopy cover and relative humidity the month before the fire as coefficient terms. These results are important as they suggest that postfire water repellency will increase in the coming years as infilling processes enhance piñon–juniper canopy cover. Furthermore, reductions in relative humidity brought about by a changing climate have the potential to link additively with infilling processes to increase the frequency and intensity of wildfires and produce stronger water repellency over a greater spatial extent. In working through these challenges, land managers can apply the predictive models developed in this study to prioritize fuel control and postfire restoration treatments.     

Multi-scale species density model for conserving an endangered songbird

Habitat modeling across a landscape that has gradients of habitat conditions requires potential predictor data that can be quantified at biologically relevant scales. We used remotely sensed data to develop a multi-scale density model in 2018 for the golden-cheeked warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia; warbler), a species that breeds in Ashe juniper (Juniperus ashei)-oak (Quercus spp.) woodlands in central Texas, USA. We first classified Ashe juniper and broadleaf tree cover at a 1-m resolution and used this to map potential habitat across the warbler's >67,000-km² breeding range. We then designed a survey for estimating warbler density based on hierarchical distance sampling. We used stratified random sampling to survey for male warblers at 1,804 points across the continuum of tree canopy cover and composition and detected 810 warblers during our surveys. We developed a suite of potential predictor variables for modeling warbler density that reflected vegetation, topography, climate, and anthropogenic land use conditions across the breeding range and developed these at 3 scales representing the territory, site, and landscape. We modeled warbler density and used the best fit model to produce a spatially explicit estimate. Predicted warbler density was influenced by tree canopy cover and canopy height at the territory scale (100-m radius); tree canopy cover, percent of the canopy comprised of juniper, and an interaction between canopy cover and compound topographic index at the site scale (1-km radius); and annual temperature range at the landscape scale (5-km radius). We estimated a population size of 217,444 male warblers (95% CI = 153,917–311,965) and >3,000 males in each recovery unit. After controlling for the duration of point count surveys, our estimate of population size was similar to that reported from the only previous breeding range survey conducted in 2008–2009. Our model results indicated that management activities to increase warbler density should promote woodlands with high tree canopy cover, approximately 60–80% Ashe juniper composition, and tree heights >3 m. In contrast to a patch-based approach, our treatment of habitat variables as continuous helped to credibly map the warbler distribution across areas with broad transitions from woodlands to shrublands. By measuring these predictor variables at biologically relevant scales, we allowed the warbler survey data to define habitat relationships instead of using anthropogenically defined habitat patches. Outcomes from our study show the benefits of developing spatial products tailored to individual species of interest for conservation and management decisions.     

Restriction of transpiration rate under high vapour pressure deficit and non‐limiting water conditions is important for terminal drought tolerance in cowpea

Drought stress is a major constraint on cowpea productivity, since the crop is grown under warm conditions on sandy soils having low water‐holding capacity. For enhanced performance of crops facing terminal drought stress, like cowpea, water‐saving strategies are crucial. In this work, the growth and transpiration rate (TR) of 40 cowpea genotypes with contrasting response to terminal drought were measured under well‐watered conditions across different vapour pressure deficits (VPD) to investigate whether tolerant and sensitive genotypes differ in their control of leaf water loss. A method is presented to indirectly assess TR through canopy temperature (CT) and the index of canopy conductance (Ig). Overall, plants developed larger leaf area under low than under high VPD, and there was a consistent trend of lower plant biomass in tolerant genotypes. Substantial differences were recorded among genotypes in TR response to VPD, with tolerant genotypes having significantly lower TR than sensitive ones, especially at times with the highest VPD. Genotypes differed in TR response to increasing VPD, with some tolerant genotypes exhibiting a clear VPD breakpoint at about 2.25 kPa, above which there was very little increase in TR. In contrast, sensitive genotypes presented a linear increase in TR as VPD increased, and the same pattern was found in some tolerant lines, but with a smaller slope. CT, estimated with thermal imagery, correlated well with TR and Ig and could therefore be used as proxy for TR. These results indicate that control of water loss discriminated between tolerant and sensitive genotypes and may, therefore, be a reliable indicator of terminal drought stress tolerance. The water‐saving characteristics of some genotypes are hypothesised to leave more soil water for pod filling, which is crucial for terminal drought adaptation.     

Woodland expansion in South African grassy biomes based on satellite observations (1990–2013): general patterns and potential drivers

Increases in woody plant cover in savanna grassland environments have been reported on globally for over 50 years and are generally perceived as a threat to rangeland productivity and biodiversity. Despite this, few attempts have been made to estimate the extent of woodland increase at a national scale, principally due to technical constraints such as availability of appropriate remote sensing products. In this study, we aimed to measure the extent to which woodlands have replaced grasslands in South Africa's grassy biomes. We use multiseason Landsat data in conjunction with satellite L‐band radar backscatter data to estimate the extent of woodlands and grasslands in 1990 and 2013. The method employed allows for a unique, nationwide measurement of transitions between grassland and woodland classes in recent decades. We estimate that during the 23‐year study period, woodlands have replaced grasslands over ~57 000 km² and conversely that grasslands have replaced woodlands over ~30 000 km², a net increase in the extent of woodland of ~27 000 km² and an annual increase of 0.22%. The changes varied markedly across the country; areas receiving over 500 mm mean annual precipitation showed higher rates of woodland expansion than regions receiving <500 mm (0.31% yr^?1 and 0.11% yr^?1, respectively). Protected areas with elephants showed clear loss of woodlands (?0.43% yr^?1), while commercial rangelands and traditional rangelands showed increases in woodland extent (>0.19% yr^?1). The woodland change map presented here provides a unique opportunity to test the numerous models of woody plant encroachment at a national/regional scale.     

Design and performance of combined infrared canopy and belowground warming in the B4WarmED (Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger) experiment

Conducting manipulative climate change experiments in complex vegetation is challenging, given considerable temporal and spatial heterogeneity. One specific challenge involves warming of both plants and soils to depth. We describe the design and performance of an open‐air warming experiment called Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger (B4WarmED) that addresses the potential for projected climate warming to alter tree function, species composition, and ecosystem processes at the boreal‐temperate ecotone. The experiment includes two forested sites in northern Minnesota, USA, with plots in both open (recently clear‐cut) and closed canopy habitats, where seedlings of 11 tree species were planted into native ground vegetation. Treatments include three target levels of plant canopy and soil warming (ambient, +1.7 °C, +3.4 °C). Warming was achieved by independent feedback control of voltage input to aboveground infrared heaters and belowground buried resistance heating cables in each of 72‐7.0 m² plots. The treatments emulated patterns of observed diurnal, seasonal, and annual temperatures but with superimposed warming. For the 2009 to 2011 field seasons, we achieved temperature elevations near our targets with growing season overall mean differences (?T_below) of +1.84 °C and +3.66 °C at 10 cm soil depth and (?T^above) of +1.82 °C and +3.45 °C for the plant canopies. We also achieved measured soil warming to at least 1 m depth. Aboveground treatment stability and control were better during nighttime than daytime and in closed vs. open canopy sites in part due to calmer conditions. Heating efficacy in open canopy areas was reduced with increasing canopy complexity and size. Results of this study suggest the warming approach is scalable: it should work well in small‐statured vegetation such as grasslands, desert, agricultural crops, and tree saplings (<5 m tall).     

Recent climate hiatus revealed dual control by temperature and drought on the stem growth of Mediterranean Quercus ilex

A better understanding of stem growth phenology and its climate drivers would improve projections of the impact of climate change on forest productivity. Under a Mediterranean climate, tree growth is primarily limited by soil water availability during summer, but cold temperatures in winter also prevent tree growth in evergreen forests. In the widespread Mediterranean evergreen tree species Quercus ilex, the duration of stem growth has been shown to predict annual stem increment, and to be limited by winter temperatures on the one hand, and by the summer drought onset on the other hand. We tested how these climatic controls of Q. ilex growth varied with recent climate change by correlating a 40‐year tree ring record and a 30‐year annual diameter inventory against winter temperature, spring precipitation, and simulated growth duration. Our results showed that growth duration was the best predictor of annual tree growth. We predicted that recent climate changes have resulted in earlier growth onset (?10 days) due to winter warming and earlier growth cessation (?26 days) due to earlier drought onset. These climatic trends partly offset one another, as we observed no significant trend of change in tree growth between 1968 and 2008. A moving‐window correlation analysis revealed that in the past, Q. ilex growth was only correlated with water availability, but that since the 2000s, growth suddenly became correlated with winter temperature in addition to spring drought. This change in the climate–growth correlations matches the start of the recent atmospheric warming pause also known as the ‘climate hiatus’. The duration of growth of Q. ilex is thus shortened because winter warming has stopped compensating for increasing drought in the last decade. Decoupled trends in precipitation and temperature, a neglected aspect of climate change, might reduce forest productivity through phenological constraints and have more consequences than climate warming alone.     

Resilience of Mediterranean shrubland to a severe drought episode: the role of seed bank and seedling emergence

Extreme climate events, such as severe drought episodes, may induce changes in vegetation if they induce species‐specific adult mortality and changes in the seedling recruitment pattern. In 2005 a severe drought occurred in Doñana National Park (south Spain) causing extensive shrubland mortality. Over the following years we monitored the soil seed bank and seedling emergence via a gradient of canopy dieback induced by the drought episode. The canopy dieback corresponded to an increase in emergence of seedlings of woody species in 2007, probably because of the reduced competition induced by canopy loss. The soil seed bank of woody species sampled in 2008 was less abundant on plots with a higher proportion of dead vegetation, probably because of depletion of the seed bank as a result of the increased germination in the previous year and also as a result of a reduction in seed supply in these sites. Accordingly, in 2009 we detected reduced emergence of woody species on plots that had suffered the greatest shrub mortality. We failed to find any significant changes in patterns of the soil seed bank and seedling emergence of short‐lived herbaceous species, indicating greater resilience in these types of species. This study highlights the resilience of Mediterranean shrublands to climate fluctuations at one extreme of the variability characteristic of these ecosystems. An increase in the frequency of severe drought episodes – increasingly probable under the new climate conditions – does have the potential, however, to induce changes in vegetation, especially in woody communities that need more time to replenish their seed banks.     

Impacts of long‐term precipitation manipulation on hydraulic architecture and xylem anatomy of piñon and juniper in Southwest USA

Hydraulic architecture imposes a fundamental control on water transport, underpinning plant productivity, and survival. The extent to which hydraulic architecture of mature trees acclimates to chronic drought is poorly understood, limiting accuracy in predictions of forest responses to future droughts. We measured seasonal shoot hydraulic performance for multiple years to assess xylem acclimation in mature piñon (Pinus edulis ) and juniper (Juniperus monosperma ) after 3+ years of precipitation manipulation. Our treatments consisted of water addition (+20% ambient precipitation), partial precipitation‐exclusion (?45% ambient precipitation), and exclusion‐structure control. Supplemental watering elevated leaf water potential, sapwood‐area specific hydraulic conductivity, and leaf‐area specific hydraulic conductivity relative to precipitation exclusion. Shifts in allocation of leaf area to sapwood area enhanced differences between irrigated and droughted K _L in piñon but not juniper. Piñon and juniper achieved similar K _L under ambient conditions, but juniper matched or outperformed piñon in all physiological measurements under both increased and decreased precipitation treatments. Embolism vulnerability and xylem anatomy were unaffected by treatments in either species. Absence of significant acclimation combined with inferior performance for both hydraulic transport and safety suggests piñon has greater risk of local extirpation if aridity increases as predicted in the southwestern USA.     

Future vulnerability mapping based on response to extreme climate events: Dieback thresholds in an endemic California oak

Aim

This study presents a bioclimate modelling approach, using responses to extreme climate events, rather than historical distributional associations, to project future species vulnerability and refugia. We aim to illustrate the compounding effects of groundwater loss and climate on species vulnerability.

Location

California, USA.

Methods

As a case study, we used the 2012–2015 California drought and resulting extensive dieback of blue oak (Quercus douglasii). We used aerial dieback surveys, downscaled climate data and subsurface water change data to develop boosted regression tree models identifying key thresholds associated with dieback throughout the blue oak distribution. We (1) combined observed dieback–climatic threshold relationships with climate futures to anticipate future areas of vulnerability and (2) used satellite‐derived measurements of subsurface water loss in drought/dieback modelling to capture the mediating effect of groundwater on species response to climatic drought.

Results

A model including climate, climate anomalies and subsurface water change explained 46% of the variability in dieback. Precipitation in 2015 and subsurface water change accounted for 62.6% of the modelled probability of dieback. We found an interaction between precipitation and subsurface water in which dieback probability increased with low precipitation and subsurface water loss. The relationship between precipitation and dieback was nonlinear, with 99% of dieback occurring in areas that received <363 mm precipitation. Based on a MIROC_rcp85 future climate scenario, relative to historical conditions, 13% of the blue oak distribution is predicted to experience more frequent years below this precipitation threshold by mid‐century and 81% by end of century.

Main conclusions

As ongoing climate change and extreme events impact ecological processes, the identification of thresholds associated with observed dieback may be combined with climate futures to help identify vulnerable populations and refugia and prioritize climate change‐related conservation efforts.     

Lasting effects of climate disturbance on perennial grassland above‐ground biomass production under two cutting frequencies

Climate extremes can ultimately reshape grassland services such as forage production and change plant functional type composition. This 3‐year field research studied resistance to dehydration and recovery after rehydration of plant community and plant functional types in an upland perennial grassland subjected to climate and cutting frequency (Cut+, Cut?) disturbances by measuring green tissue percentage and above‐ground biomass production (ANPP). In year 1, a climate disturbance gradient was applied by co‐manipulating temperature and precipitation. Four treatments were considered: control and warming‐drought climatic treatment, with or without extreme summer event. In year 2, control and warming‐drought treatments were maintained without extreme. In year 3, all treatments received ambient climatic conditions. We found that the grassland community was very sensitive to dehydration during the summer extreme: aerial senescence reached 80% when cumulated climatic water balance fell to ?156 mm and biomass declined by 78% at the end of summer. In autumn, canopy greenness and biomass totally recovered in control but not in the warming‐drought treatment. However ANPP decreased under both climatic treatments, but the effect was stronger on Cut+ (?24%) than Cut? (?15%). This decline was not compensated by the presence of three functional types because they were negatively affected by the climatic treatments, suggesting an absence of buffering effect on grassland production. In the following 2 years, lasting effects of climate disturbance on ANPP were observable. The unexpected stressful conditions of year 3 induced a decline in grassland production in the Cut+ control treatment. The fact that this treatment cumulated higher (45%) N export over the 3 years suggests that N plays a key role in ANPP stability. As ANPP in this mesic perennial grassland did not show engineering resilience, long‐term experimental manipulation is needed. Infrequent mowing appears more appropriate for sustaining grassland ANPP under future climate extremes.     

Carbon stock and its responses to climate change in Central Asia

Central Asia has a land area of 5.6 × 10⁶ km² and contains 80–90% of the world's temperate deserts. Yet it is one of the least characterized areas in the estimation of the global carbon (C) stock/balance. This study assessed the sizes and spatiotemporal patterns of C pools in Central Asia using both inventory (based on 353 biomass and 284 soil samples) and process‐based modeling approaches. The results showed that the C stock in Central Asia was 31.34–34.16 Pg in the top 1‐m soil with another 10.42–11.43 Pg stored in deep soil (1–3 m) of the temperate deserts. They amounted to 18–24% of the global C stock in deserts and dry shrublands. The C stock was comparable to that of the neighboring regions in Eurasia or major drylands around the world (e.g. Australia). However, 90% of Central Asia C pool was stored in soil, and the fraction was much higher than in other regions. Compared to hot deserts of the world, the temperate deserts in Central Asia had relatively high soil organic carbon density. The C stock in Central Asia is under threat from dramatic climate change. During a decadal drought between 1998 and 2008, which was possibly related to protracted La Niña episodes, the dryland lost approximately 0.46 Pg C from 1979 to 2011. The largest C losses were found in northern Kazakhstan, where annual precipitation declined at a rate of 90 mm decade^?1. The regional C dynamics were mainly determined by changes in the vegetation C pool, and the SOC pool was stable due to the balance between reduced plant‐derived C influx and inhibited respiration.     

Simple additive simulation overestimates real influence: altered nitrogen and rainfall modulate the effect of warming on soil carbon fluxes

Experiments and models have led to a consensus that there is positive feedback between carbon (C) fluxes and climate warming. However, the effect of warming may be altered by regional and global changes in nitrogen (N) and rainfall levels, but the current understanding is limited. Through synthesizing global data on soil C pool, input and loss from experiments simulating N deposition, drought and increased precipitation, we quantified the responses of soil C fluxes and equilibrium to the three single factors and their interactions with warming. We found that warming slightly increased the soil C input and loss by 5% and 9%, respectively, but had no significant effect on the soil C pool. Nitrogen deposition alone increased the soil C input (+20%), but the interaction of warming and N deposition greatly increased the soil C input by 49%. Drought alone decreased the soil C input by 17%, while the interaction of warming and drought decreased the soil C input to a greater extent (?22%). Increased precipitation stimulated the soil C input by 15%, but the interaction of warming and increased precipitation had no significant effect on the soil C input. However, the soil C loss was not significantly affected by any of the interactions, although it was constrained by drought (?18%). These results implied that the positive C fluxes–climate warming feedback was modulated by the changing N and rainfall regimes. Further, we found that the additive effects of [warming × N deposition] and [warming × drought] on the soil C input and of [warming × increased precipitation] on the soil C loss were greater than their interactions, suggesting that simple additive simulation using single‐factor manipulations may overestimate the effects on soil C fluxes in the real world. Therefore, we propose that more multifactorial experiments should be considered in studying Earth systems.     

Prolonged experimental drought reduces plant hydraulic conductance and transpiration and increases mortality in a piñon–juniper woodland

Plant hydraulic conductance (k_s) is a critical control on whole‐plant water use and carbon uptake and, during drought, influences whether plants survive or die. To assess long‐term physiological and hydraulic responses of mature trees to water availability, we manipulated ecosystem‐scale water availability from 2007 to 2013 in a piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and juniper (Juniperus monosperma) woodland. We examined the relationship between k_s and subsequent mortality using more than 5 years of physiological observations, and the subsequent impact of reduced hydraulic function and mortality on total woody canopy transpiration (E_C) and conductance (G_C). For both species, we observed significant reductions in plant transpiration (E) and k_s under experimentally imposed drought. Conversely, supplemental water additions increased E and k_s in both species. Interestingly, both species exhibited similar declines in k_s under the imposed drought conditions, despite their differing stomatal responses and mortality patterns during drought. Reduced whole‐plant k_s also reduced carbon assimilation in both species, as leaf‐level stomatal conductance (g_s) and net photosynthesis (A_n) declined strongly with decreasing k_s. Finally, we observed that chronically low whole‐plant k_s was associated with greater canopy dieback and mortality for both piñon and juniper and that subsequent reductions in woody canopy biomass due to mortality had a significant impact on both daily and annual canopy E_C and G_C. Our data indicate that significant reductions in k_s precede drought‐related tree mortality events in this system, and the consequence is a significant reduction in canopy gas exchange and carbon fixation. Our results suggest that reductions in productivity and woody plant cover in piñon–juniper woodlands can be expected due to reduced plant hydraulic conductance and increased mortality of both piñon pine and juniper under anticipated future conditions of more frequent and persistent regional drought in the southwestern United States.     

Where can managers effectively resist climate-driven ecological transformation in pinyon–juniper woodlands of the US Southwest?

Pinyon–juniper (PJ) woodlands are an important component of dryland ecosystems across the US West and are potentially susceptible to ecological transformation. However, predicting woodland futures is complicated by species-specific strategies for persisting and reproducing under drought conditions, uncertainty in future climate, and limitations to inferring demographic rates from forest inventory data. Here, we leverage new demographic models to quantify how climate change is expected to alter population demographics in five PJ tree species in the US West and place our results in the context of a climate adaptation framework to resist, accept, or direct ecological transformation. Two of five study species, Pinus edulis and Juniperus monosperma, are projected to experience population declines, driven by both rising mortality and decreasing recruitment rates. These declines are reasonably consistent across various climate futures, and the magnitude of uncertainty in population growth due to future climate is less than uncertainty due to how demographic rates will respond to changing climate. We assess the effectiveness of management to reduce tree density and mitigate competition, and use the results to classify southwest woodlands into areas where transformation is (a) unlikely and can be passively resisted, (b) likely but may be resisted by active management, and (c) likely unavoidable, requiring managers to accept or direct the trajectory. Population declines are projected to promote ecological transformation in the warmer and drier PJ communities of the southwest, encompassing 37.1%–81.1% of our sites, depending on future climate scenarios. Less than 20% of sites expected to transform away from PJ have potential to retain existing tree composition by density reduction. Our results inform where this adaptation strategy could successfully resist ecological transformation in coming decades and allow for a portfolio design approach across the geographic range of PJ woodlands.     

Regulation and acclimation of leaf gas exchange in a piñon–juniper woodland exposed to three different precipitation regimes

Leaf gas‐exchange regulation plays a central role in the ability of trees to survive drought, but forecasting the future response of gas exchange to prolonged drought is hampered by our lack of knowledge regarding potential acclimation. To investigate whether leaf gas‐exchange rates and sensitivity to drought acclimate to precipitation regimes, we measured the seasonal variations of leaf gas exchange in a mature piñon–juniper Pinus edulis–Juniperus monosperma woodland after 3 years of precipitation manipulation. We compared trees receiving ambient precipitation with those in an irrigated treatment (+30% of ambient precipitation) and a partial rainfall exclusion (?45%). Treatments significantly affected leaf water potential, stomatal conductance and photosynthesis for both isohydric piñon and anisohydric juniper. Leaf gas exchange acclimated to the precipitation regimes in both species. Maximum gas‐exchange rates under well‐watered conditions, leaf‐specific hydraulic conductance and leaf water potential at zero photosynthetic assimilation all decreased with decreasing precipitation. Despite their distinct drought resistance and stomatal regulation strategies, both species experienced hydraulic limitation on leaf gas exchange when precipitation decreased, leading to an intraspecific trade‐off between maximum photosynthetic assimilation and resistance of photosynthesis to drought. This response will be most detrimental to the carbon balance of piñon under predicted increases in aridity in the southwestern USA.     

Integrating ecophysiology and forest landscape models to improve projections of drought effects under climate change

Fundamental drivers of ecosystem processes such as temperature and precipitation are rapidly changing and creating novel environmental conditions. Forest landscape models (FLM) are used by managers and policy‐makers to make projections of future ecosystem dynamics under alternative management or policy options, but the links between the fundamental drivers and projected responses are weak and indirect, limiting their reliability for projecting the impacts of climate change. We developed and tested a relatively mechanistic method to simulate the effects of changing precipitation on species competition within the LANDIS‐II FLM. Using data from a field precipitation manipulation experiment in a piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and juniper (Juniperus monosperma) ecosystem in New Mexico (USA), we calibrated our model to measurements from ambient control plots and tested predictions under the drought and irrigation treatments against empirical measurements. The model successfully predicted behavior of physiological variables under the treatments. Discrepancies between model output and empirical data occurred when the monthly time step of the model failed to capture the short‐term dynamics of the ecosystem as recorded by instantaneous field measurements. We applied the model to heuristically assess the effect of alternative climate scenarios on the piñon–juniper ecosystem and found that warmer and drier climate reduced productivity and increased the risk of drought‐induced mortality, especially for piñon. We concluded that the direct links between fundamental drivers and growth rates in our model hold great promise to improve our understanding of ecosystem processes under climate change and improve management decisions because of its greater reliance on first principles.     

Robust ecological drought projections for drylands in the 21st century

Dryland ecosystems may be especially vulnerable to expected 21st century increases in temperature and aridity because they are tightly controlled by moisture availability. However, climate impact assessments in drylands are difficult because ecological dynamics are dictated by drought conditions that are difficult to define and complex to estimate from climate conditions alone. In addition, precipitation projections vary substantially among climate models, enhancing variation in overall trajectories for aridity. Here, we constrain this uncertainty by utilizing an ecosystem water balance model to quantify drought conditions with recognized ecological importance, and by identifying changes in ecological drought conditions that are robust among climate models, defined here as when >90% of models agree in the direction of change. Despite limited evidence for robust changes in precipitation, changes in ecological drought are robust over large portions of drylands in the United States and Canada. Our results suggest strong regional differences in long‐term drought trajectories, epitomized by chronic drought increases in southern areas, notably the Upper Gila Mountains and South‐Central Semi‐arid Prairies, and decreases in the north, particularly portions of the Temperate and West‐Central Semi‐arid Prairies. However, we also found that exposure to hot‐dry stress is increasing faster than mean annual temperature over most of these drylands, and those increases are greatest in northern areas. Robust shifts in seasonal drought are most apparent during the cool season; when soil water availability is projected to increase in northern regions and decrease in southern regions. The implications of these robust drought trajectories for ecosystems will vary geographically, and these results provide useful insights about the impact of climate change on these dryland ecosystems. More broadly, this approach of identifying robust changes in ecological drought may be useful for other assessments of climate impacts in drylands and provide a more rigorous foundation for making long‐term strategic resource management decisions.     

Long-Term Tree Cover Dynamics in a Pinyon-Juniper Woodland: Climate-Change-Type Drought Resets Successional Clock

Woody vegetation has expanded in coverage over the past century in many places globally, exemplified by pinyon-juniper changes in the Southwestern United States. Extreme drought is one of the few non-management drivers besides fire that might reverse such cover changes, but this has not been well documented. Here, we assess 68 years of tree cover dynamics across an elevation gradient of a pinyon-juniper woodland using aerial photographs (1936 and 1959) and QuickBird imagery (2004). Canopy cover increased 32% from 1936 to the onset of a major drought (2002). The largest relative increase in canopy cover occurred from 1936 to 1959 at the higher elevations, but these gains were eliminated by fires occurring from 1959 to 2002, during which time lower elevations with low canopy cover exhibited the greatest relative increases. The 2002–2004 drought reduced canopy cover by 55%, which eliminated gains in cover that occurred since 1936. Relative tree cover loss was highest at low elevations with low tree cover, but absolute tree cover loss was greater in areas of high tree cover, which increased with elevation. The loss of more than half of the canopy cover during a 2-year drought period was much greater than losses due to fire or possible increases due to historic land use (for example, grazing). These results suggest that regional-scale climatic influences may be more important than land use legacies in controlling tree cover of these and perhaps other semiarid woodlands over longer time scales—notable given that similar episodes of tree mortality are projected in coming decades with climate change.     

Current and Potential Future Elevational Distributions of Birds Associated with Pinyon–Juniper Woodlands in the Central Great Basin, U.S.A.

We examined the relationship of breeding birds to elevation across and within four adjacent mountain ranges in the central Great Basin, a cold desert in western North America. Data came from 7 years of point counts at elevations from 1,915 to 3,145 m. We focused on eight passerine species that in this region are associated frequently with Pinus monophylla–Juniperus spp. (pinyon–juniper) woodland. Mean elevation of species' presence differed significantly among mountain ranges for all species except Spizella passerina (Chipping Sparrow); all species except Spizella breweri (Brewer's Sparrow) occurred at the highest mean elevation in the Toquima Range. Observed patterns were consistent with the elevational distribution of pinyon–juniper woodlands that provide nesting and foraging habitat for these species. Across the Great Basin, driven in part by climate change, pinyon–juniper woodland is increasing in density and expanding its distribution at lower elevations. However, breeding habitat for species dependent on mature trees may not be available in expansion woodlands for several decades, and increased tree densities may have negative effects on bird species that are dependent on shrubs within open pinyon–juniper woodlands. Responses of individual species to elevation differed from the response of assemblage-level patterns. Responses to biotic and abiotic variables within guilds of birds are sufficiently diverse, and responses of individual species sufficiently heterogeneous, that one management strategy is unlikely to meet the needs of all species in the group.