Carbon implications of converting cropland to bioenergy crops or forest for climate mitigation: a global assessment

The potential for climate change mitigation by bioenergy crops and terrestrial carbon sinks has been the object of intensive research in the past decade. There has been much debate about whether energy crops used to offset fossil fuel use, or carbon sequestration in forests, would provide the best climate mitigation benefit. Most current food cropland is unlikely to be used for bioenergy, but in many regions of the world, a proportion of cropland is being abandoned, particularly marginal croplands, and some of this land is now being used for bioenergy. In this study, we assess the consequences of land‐use change on cropland. We first identify areas where cropland is so productive that it may never be converted and assess the potential of the remaining cropland to mitigate climate change by identifying which alternative land use provides the best climate benefit: C₄ grass bioenergy crops, coppiced woody energy crops or allowing forest regrowth to create a carbon sink. We do not present this as a scenario of land‐use change – we simply assess the best option in any given global location should a land‐use change occur. To do this, we use global biomass potential studies based on food crop productivity, forest inventory data and dynamic global vegetation models to provide, for the first time, a global comparison of the climate change implications of either deploying bioenergy crops or allowing forest regeneration on current crop land, over a period of 20 years starting in the nominal year of 2000 ad . Globally, the extent of cropland on which conversion to energy crops or forest would result in a net carbon loss, and therefore likely always to remain as cropland, was estimated to be about 420.1 Mha, or 35.6% of the total cropland in Africa, 40.3% in Asia and Russia Federation, 30.8% in Europe‐25, 48.4% in North America, 13.7% in South America and 58.5% in Oceania. Fast growing C₄ grasses such as Miscanthus and switch‐grass cultivars are the bioenergy feedstock with the highest climate mitigation potential. Fast growing C₄ grasses such as Miscanthus and switch‐grass cultivars provide the best climate mitigation option on ≈485 Mha of cropland worldwide with ~42% of this land characterized by a terrain slope equal or above 20%. If that land‐use change did occur, it would displace ≈58.1 Pg fossil fuel C equivalent (C_eq oil). Woody energy crops such as poplar, willow and Eucalyptus species would be the best option on only 2.4% (≈26.3 Mha) of current cropland, and if this land‐use change occurred, it would displace ≈0.9 Pg C_eq oil. Allowing cropland to revert to forest would be the best climate mitigation option on ≈17% of current cropland (≈184.5 Mha), and if this land‐use change occurred, it would sequester ≈5.8 Pg C in biomass in the 20‐year‐old forest and ≈2.7 Pg C in soil. This study is spatially explicit, so also serves to identify the regional differences in the efficacy of different climate mitigation options, informing policymakers developing regionally or nationally appropriate mitigation actions.     

Effects of plant traits on ecosystem and regional processes: a conceptual framework for predicting the consequences of global change

Human activities are causing widespread changes in the species composition of natural and managed ecosystems, but the consequences of these changes are poorly understood. This paper presents a conceptual framework for predicting the ecosystem and regional consequences of changes in plant species composition. Changes in species composition have greatest ecological effects when they modify the ecological factors that directly control (and respond to) ecosystem processes. These interactive controls include: functional types of organisms present in the ecosystem; soil resources used by organisms to grow and reproduce; modulators such as microclimate that influence the activity of organisms; disturbance regime; and human activities. Plant traits related to size and growth rate are particularly important because they determine the productive capacity of vegetation and the rates of decomposition and nitrogen mineralization. Because the same plant traits affect most key processes in the cycling of carbon and nutrients, changes in plant traits tend to affect most biogeochemical cycling processes in parallel. Plant traits also have landscape and regional effects through their effects on water and energy exchange and disturbance regime.     

Environmental costs and benefits of growing Miscanthus for bioenergy in the UK

Planting the perennial biomass crop Miscanthus in the UK could offset 2–13 Mt oil eq. yr^?1, contributing up to 10% of current energy use. Policymakers need assurance that upscaling Miscanthus production can be performed sustainably without negatively impacting essential food production or the wider environment. This study reviews a large body of Miscanthus relevant literature into concise summary statements. Perennial Miscanthus has energy output/input ratios 10 times higher (47.3 ± 2.2) than annual crops used for energy (4.7 ± 0.2 to 5.5 ± 0.2), and the total carbon cost of energy production (1.12 g CO₂‐C eq. MJ^?1) is 20–30 times lower than fossil fuels. Planting on former arable land generally increases soil organic carbon (SOC) with Miscanthus sequestering 0.7–2.2 Mg C4‐C ha^?1 yr^?1. Cultivation on grassland can cause a disturbance loss of SOC which is likely to be recovered during the lifetime of the crop and is potentially mitigated by fossil fuel offset. N₂O emissions can be five times lower under unfertilized Miscanthus than annual crops and up to 100 times lower than intensive pasture. Nitrogen fertilizer is generally unnecessary except in low fertility soils. Herbicide is essential during the establishment years after which natural weed suppression by shading is sufficient. Pesticides are unnecessary. Water‐use efficiency is high (e.g. 5.5–9.2 g aerial DM (kg H₂O)^?1, but high biomass productivity means increased water demand compared to cereal crops. The perennial nature and belowground biomass improves soil structure, increases water‐holding capacity (up by 100–150 mm), and reduces run‐off and erosion. Overwinter ripening increases landscape structural resources for wildlife. Reduced management intensity promotes earthworm diversity and abundance although poor litter palatability may reduce individual biomass. Chemical leaching into field boundaries is lower than comparable agriculture, improving soil and water habitat quality.     

全球价值链分工对生态要素空间转移的影响——以iPhone6的水资源利用为例

随着生产与贸易不断向全球化发展,经济活动对生态环境的影响已不限于单一地区内,而形成了牵一发而动全身的全局性问题。产品的全球价值链分工所引致的生态要素转移逐渐成为关乎国家资源安全、社会可持续发展的关键事宜。基于生态要素核算的思想,本文首次以典型高科技产品iPhone6为研究对象,基于其零部件价值拆解数据与全球供应商分布数据,运用混合多区域投入产出模型对其生产端所引起的水资源使用与转移进行了系统核算。主要结论包括:(1)总体上,生产每单位iPhone6需使用7371m³水资源,其生产对全球水供应具有较强依赖性。(2)地区上,iPhone6中体现的虚拟水主要来自29个国家或地区,围绕亚洲与欧美经济体形成两大集中分布;从国家看,苹果公司所在地美国仅占总量的51.66%,其他国家中虚拟水贡献最高的是中国,占比为39.05%。(3)生产中,主要引起了中国-美国、中国-日本、菲律宾和马来西亚-新加坡等从发展中国家向发达国家的大规模虚拟水转移,体现出iPhone6分工对全球水资源"纳贫济富"的再分配作用。(4)产业布局上,iPhone6生产所涉及的经济体与经济部门的虚拟水体现强度...     

A socio‐ecological model for predicting impacts of land‐use and climate change on regional plant diversity in the Austrian Alps

Climate and land‐use change jointly affect the future of biodiversity. Yet, biodiversity scenarios have so far concentrated on climatic effects because forecasts of land use are rarely available at appropriate spatial and thematic scales. Agent‐based models (ABMs) represent a potentially powerful but little explored tool for establishing thematically and spatially fine‐grained land‐use scenarios. Here, we use an ABM parameterized for 1,329 agents, mostly farmers, in a Central European model region, and simulate the changes to land‐use patterns resulting from their response to three scenarios of changing socio‐economic conditions and three scenarios of climate change until the mid of the century. Subsequently, we use species distribution models to, first, analyse relationships between the realized niches of 832 plant species and climatic gradients or land‐use types, respectively, and, second, to project consequent changes in potential regional ranges of these species as triggered by changes in both the altered land‐use patterns and the changing climate. We find that both drivers determine the realized niches of the studied plants, with land use having a stronger effect than any single climatic variable in the model. Nevertheless, the plants' future distributions appear much more responsive to climate than to land‐use changes because alternative future socio‐economic backgrounds have only modest impact on land‐use decisions in the model region. However, relative effects of climate and land‐use changes on biodiversity may differ drastically in other regions, especially where landscapes are still dominated by natural or semi‐natural habitat. We conclude that agent‐based modelling of land use is able to provide scenarios at scales relevant to individual species distribution and suggest that coupling ABMs with models of species' range change should be intensified to provide more realistic biodiversity forecasts.     

Changes in plant collection practices from the 16th to 21st centuries: implications for the use of herbarium specimens in global change research

Background and AimsHerbaria were recently advertised as reliable sources of information regarding historical changes in plant traits and biotic interactions. To justify the use of herbaria in global change research, we asked whether the characteristics of herbarium specimens have changed during the past centuries and whether these changes were due to shifts in plant collection practices.MethodsWe measured nine characteristics from 515 herbarium specimens of common European trees and large shrubs collected from 1558 to 2016. We asked botanists to rank these specimens by their scientific quality, and asked artists to rank these specimens by their beauty.Key ResultsEight of 11 assessed characteristics of herbarium specimens changed significantly during the study period. The average number of leaves in plant specimens increased 3-fold, whereas the quality of specimen preparation decreased. Leaf size negatively correlated with leaf number in specimens in both among-species and within-species analyses. The proportion of herbarium sheets containing plant reproductive structures peaked in the 1850s. The scientific value of herbarium specimens increased until the 1700s, but then did not change, whereas their aesthetic value showed no systematic trends.ConclusionsOur findings strongly support the hypothesis that many characteristics of herbarium specimens have changed systematically and substantially from the 16th to 21st centuries due to changes in plant collection and preservation practices. These changes may both create patterns which could be erroneously attributed to environmental changes and obscure historical trends in plant traits. The utmost care ought to be taken to guard against the possibility of misinterpretation of data obtained from herbarium specimens. We recommend that directional changes in characters of herbarium specimens which occurred during the past 150‒200 years, primarily in specimen size and in the presence of reproductive structures, are accounted for when searching for the effects of past environmental changes on plant traits.     

Using value of information to prioritize research needs for migratory bird management under climate change: a case study using federal land acquisition in the United States

In response to global habitat loss, many governmental and non‐governmental organizations have implemented land acquisition programs to protect critical habitats permanently for priority species. The ability of these protected areas to meet future management objectives may be compromised if the effects of climate change are not considered in acquisition decisions. Unfortunately, the effects of climate change on ecological systems are complex and plagued by uncertainty, making it difficult for organizations to prioritize research needs to improve decision‐making. Herein, we demonstrate the use of qualitative value of information analysis to identify and prioritize which sources of uncertainty should be reduced to improve land acquisition decisions to protect migratory birds in the face of climate change. The qualitative value of information analysis process involves four steps: (i) articulating alternative hypotheses; (ii) determining the magnitude of uncertainty regarding each hypothesis; (iii) evaluating the relevance of each hypothesis to acquisition decision‐making; and (iv) assessing the feasibility of reducing the uncertainty surrounding each hypothesis through research and monitoring. We demonstrate this approach using the objectives of 3 U.S. federal land acquisition programs that focus on migratory bird management. We used a comprehensive literature review, expert elicitation, and professional judgement to evaluate 11 hypotheses about the effect of climate change on migratory birds. Based on our results, we provide a list of priorities for future research and monitoring to reduce uncertainty and improve land acquisition decisions for the programs considered in our case study. Reducing uncertainty about how climate change will influence the spatial distribution of priority species and biotic homogenization were identified as the highest priorities for future research due to both the value of this information for improving land acquisition decisions and the feasibility of reducing uncertainty through research and monitoring. Research on how changes in precipitation patterns and winter severity will influence migratory bird abundance is also expected to benefit land acquisition decisions. By contrast, hypotheses about phenology and migration distance were identified as low priorities for research. By providing a rigorous and transparent approach to prioritizing research, we demonstrate that qualitative value of information is a valuable tool for prioritizing research and improving management decisions in other complex, high‐uncertainty cases where traditional quantitative value of information analysis is not possible. Given the inherent complexity of ecological systems under climate change, and the difficulty of identifying management‐relevant research priorities, we expect this approach to have wide applications within the field of natural resource management.