Relaxed selection when you least expect it: why declining bird populations might fail to respond to phenological mismatches

Ongoing climate change threatens to cause mismatches between the phenology of many organisms and their resources. Populations of migratory birds may need to undergo ‘evolutionary rescue’ if resource availability moves to earlier dates in the year, as shifted arrival dates at the breeding grounds may be required for persistence under new environmental schedules. Here we show a counterintuitive process that can reduce the strength of selection for early arrival when the resource peaks earlier. This happens when two processes combine to determine selection for early arrival: breeding success is higher if a bird does not miss the resource peak, but this occurs together with a ‘zero‐sum game’ where birds acquire good territories ahead of their competitors if they arrive early. The latter process can relax if the population has experienced a recent decline. Therefore, climate change can have two opposing effects: its direct effect on breeding success strengthens selection for early arrival, but this combines with an indirect effect of relaxed selection due to population declines, if territoriality is a significant determinant of population dynamics and fitness. We show that the latter process can predominate, and this can cause a failure for a population to adapt to a new schedule under changing environmental conditions.     

Size-dependent selection on arrival times in sticklebacks: why small males arrive first

Abstract Studies on arrival time to breeding areas show that high-quality males usually arrive first and gain the highest reproductive success. This is generally assumed to be due to phenotype-dependent costs and benefits of early arrival. We show that the opposite arrival order can occur, probably due to selection on poor-quality males to increase their chances of reproduction. In a fish species, the threespine stickleback, Gasterosteus aculeatus , small males arrived before larger males at the breeding grounds. Early arrival was costly because predation risk was at its highest at the start of the season and early territory establishment was selected against, as demonstrated by selection coefficients for territory maintenance and hatching success. Large males probably postponed arrival until females were available to decrease predation risk costs and increase offspring production. An experimental study showed that a delay in arrival of large males does not decrease their probability of reproduction, because large males are able to take over nest sites from small males. Small males, on the other hand, are less likely to establish territories in competition with large males but can pay the costs of early arrival in exchange for the benefit of access to territories. Thus, whereas natural selection favors later arrival, sexual selection through competition for breeding territories favors early arrival in small, competitively inferior males. This results in the benefits of early arrival depending on the competitive ability of the male, which favors size-dependent optimal arrival times.     

Factors influencing plasticity in the arrival‐breeding interval in a migratory species reacting to climate change

Climate change is profoundly affecting the phenology of many species. In migratory birds, there is evidence for advances in their arrival time at the breeding ground and their timing of breeding, yet empirical studies examining the interdependence between arrival and breeding time are lacking. Hence, evidence is scarce regarding how breeding time may be adjusted via the arrival‐breeding interval to help local populations adapt to local conditions or climate change. We used long‐term data from an intensively monitored population of the northern wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe) to examine the factors related to the length of 734 separate arrival‐to‐breeding events from 549 individual females. From 1993 to 2017, the mean arrival and egg‐laying dates advanced by approximately the same amount (~5–6 days), with considerable between‐individual variation in the arrival‐breeding interval. The arrival‐breeding interval was shorter for: (a) individuals that arrived later in the season compared to early‐arriving birds, (b) for experienced females compared to first‐year breeders, (c) as spring progressed, and (d) in later years compared to earlier ones. The influence of these factors was much larger for birds arriving earlier in the season compared to later arriving birds, with most effects on variation in the arrival‐breeding interval being absent in late‐arriving birds. Thus, in this population it appears that the timing of breeding is not constrained by arrival for early‐ to midarriving birds, but instead is dependent on local conditions after arrival. For late‐arriving birds, however, the timing of breeding appears to be influenced by arrival constraints. Hence, impacts of climate change on arrival dates and local conditions are expected to vary for different parts of the population, with potential negative impacts associated with these factors likely to differ for early‐ versus late‐arriving birds.     

Unpredictable perturbation reduces breeding propensity regardless of pre‐laying reproductive readiness in a partial capital breeder

Theoretically, individuals of migratory species should optimize reproductive investment based on a combination of timing of and body condition at arrival on the breeding grounds. A minimum threshold body mass is required to initiate reproduction, and the timing of reaching this threshold is critical because of the trade‐off between delaying breeding to gain in condition against the declining value of offspring with later reproductive timing. Long‐lived species have the flexibility within their life history to skip reproduction in a given year if they are unable to achieve this theoretical mass threshold. Although the decision to breed or not is an important parameter influencing population dynamics, the mechanisms underlying this decision are poorly understood. Here, we mimicked an unpredictable environmental perturbation that induced a reduction in body mass of Arctic pre‐breeding (before the laying period) female common eiders Somateria mollissima; a long‐lived migratory seaduck, while controlling for individual variation in the pre‐laying physiological reproductive readiness via vitellogenin (VTG) – a yolk‐targeted lipoprotein. Our aim was to causally determine the interaction between body condition and pre‐laying reproductive readiness (VTG) on breeding propensity by experimentally reducing body mass in treatment females. We first demonstrated that arrival body condition was a key driver of breeding propensity. Secondly, we found that treatment and VTG levels interacted to influence breeding propensity, indicating that our experimental manipulation, mimicking an unpredictable food shortage, reduced breeding propensity, regardless of the degree of pre‐laying physiological reproductive readiness (i.e. timing of ovarian follicles recruitment). Our experiment demonstrates that momentary environmental perturbations during the pre‐breeding period can strongly affect the decision to breed, a key parameter driving population dynamics.     

Differential response to abiotic conditions and predation risk rather than competition avoidance determine breeding site selection by anurans

Co‐existence of species has been a central debate in ecology for decades but the mechanisms that allow co‐existence are still heatedly disputed. The main paradigms have shifted among the importance of competition, predation and abiotic conditions as determinants of community structure. Differential habitat selection is considered to reduce competition and hence allow co‐existence. Our goal was to test hypotheses regarding how breeding site use of a population that was patchily distributed on a dynamic floodplain may facilitate coexistence: 1) do species co‐occur randomly or do they occur more or less often than expected by chance? 2) Do species use the same habitat types in equal proportions or do they use them differentially? 3) If they use habitat types differentially, is this differential use related to abiotic and biotic conditions? 4) Does interspecific competition predict breeding site use or do abiotic conditions and predation risk better predict habitat use? We collected presence/absence (i.e. detection/nondetection) data of egg clutches and larvae of four pond‐breeding anuran species during a two year study at a total of 353 ponds. We used site occupancy models and model averaging techniques to predict breeding site selection in relation to habitat types, abiotic and biotic factors. These parameters were corrected for imperfect detection of species. The rates of co‐occurrence were consistently higher than expected by chance. Species differed in the use of the main habitat types. Habitat types that were used by multiple species were used in a species‐specific manner in relation to both abiotic conditions and predation risk. Species preferred ponds where other species and fish were present. Although niche differentiation in breeding site selection is evident, our results do not support the pervasive role of competition avoidance in governing current breeding site selection. We conclude that differential habitat use and differences in response to abiotic conditions and predation risk can override competitive interactions, thereby facilitating local co‐existence and high species diversity.     

Optimal reproductive phenology under size‐dependent cannibalism

Intra‐cohort cannibalism is an example of a size‐mediated priority effect. If early life stages cannibalize slightly smaller individuals, then parents face a trade‐off between breeding at the best time for larval growth or development and predation risk from offspring born earlier. This game‐theoretic situation among parents may drive adaptive reproductive phenology toward earlier breeding. However, it is not straightforward to quantify how cannibalism affects seasonal egg fitness or to distinguish emergent breeding phenology from alternative adaptive drivers. Here, we devise an age‐structured game‐theoretic mathematical model to find evolutionary stable breeding phenologies. We predict how size‐dependent cannibalism acting on eggs, larvae, or both changes emergent breeding phenology and find that breeding under inter‐cohort cannibalism occurs earlier than the optimal match to environmental conditions. We show that emergent breeding phenology patterns at the level of the population are sensitive to the ontogeny of cannibalism, that is, which life stage is subject to cannibalism. This suggests that the nature of cannibalism among early life stages is a potential driver of the diversity of reproductive phenologies seen across taxa and may be a contributing factor in situations where breeding occurs earlier than expected from environmental conditions.     

Inter‐annual variation in the breeding chronology of arctic shorebirds: effects of weather,snow melt and predators

Arctic breeding shorebirds travel thousands of kilometres between their wintering and breeding grounds, yet the period over which they arrive and begin to initiate nests spans only several weeks. We investigated the role of local conditions such as weather, snow cover and predator abundance on the timing of arrival and breeding for shorebirds at four sites in the eastern Canadian arctic. Over 11 years, we monitored the arrival of 12 species and found 821 nests. Weather was highly variable over the course of this study, and the date of 50% snow cover varied by up to three weeks between years. In contrast, timing of arrival varied by one week or less at our sites, and was not well predicted by local conditions such as temperature, wind or snow melt. Timing of breeding was related to the date of 50% snow melt, with later snow melt resulting in delayed breeding. Higher predator abundance resulted in earlier nesting than would be predicted by snow cover alone. We hypothesise that when predation risk is high, the value of potential re‐nesting exceeds the energetic risks of early breeding. Synchrony of breeding was significantly higher in late breeding years suggesting a relatively fixed date for the termination of nest initiation, after which nesting is no longer profitable.     

Selection and evolutionary potential of spring arrival phenology in males and females of a migratory songbird

The timing of annual life‐history events affects survival and reproduction of all organisms. A changing environment can perturb phenological adaptations and an important question is if populations can evolve fast enough to track the environmental changes. Yet, little is known about selection and evolutionary potential of traits determining the timing of crucial annual events. Migratory species, which travel between different climatic regions, are particularly affected by global environmental changes. To increase our understanding of evolutionary potential and selection of timing traits, we investigated the quantitative genetics of arrival date at the breeding ground using a multigenerational pedigree of a natural great reed warbler (Acrocephalus arundinaceus) population. We found significant heritability of 16.4% for arrival date and directional selection for earlier arrival in both sexes acting through reproductive success, but not through lifespan. Mean arrival date advanced with 6 days over 20 years, which is in exact accordance with our predicted evolutionary response based on the breeder's equation. However, this phenotypic change is unlikely to be caused by microevolution, because selection seems mainly to act on the nongenetic component of the trait. Furthermore, demographical changes could also not account for the advancing arrival date. Instead, a strong correlation between spring temperatures and population mean arrival date suggests that phenotypic plasticity best explains the advancement of arrival date in our study population. Our study dissects the evolutionary and environmental forces that shape timing traits and thereby increases knowledge of how populations cope with rapidly changing environments.     

Using habitat selection theories to predict the spatiotemporal distribution of migratory birds during stopover – a case study of pink‐footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus

Understanding how animals select for habitat and foraging resources therein is a crucial component of basic and applied ecology. The selection process is typically influenced by a variety of environmental conditions including the spatial and temporal variation in the quantity and quality of food resources, predation or disturbance risks, and inter‐ and intraspecific competition. Indeed, some of the most commonly employed ecological theories used to describe how animals choose foraging sites are: nutrient intake maximisation, density‐dependent habitat selection, central‐place foraging, and predation risk effects. Even though these theories are not mutually exclusive, rarely are multiple theoretical models considered concomitantly to assess which theory, or combination thereof, best predicts observed changes in habitat selection over space and time. Here, we tested which of the above theories best‐predicted habitat selection of Svalbard‐breeding pink‐footed geese at their main spring migration stopover site in mid‐Norway by computing a series of resource selection functions (RSFs) and their predictive ability (k‐fold cross validation scores). At this stopover site geese fuel intensively as a preparation for breeding and further migration. We found that the predation risk model and a combination of the density‐dependent and central‐place foraging models best‐predicted habitat selection during stopover as geese selected for larger fields where predation risk is typically lower and selection for foraging sites changed as a function of both distance to the roost site (i.e. central‐place) and changes in local density. In contrast to many other studies, the nutritional value of the available food resources did not appear to be a major limiting factor as geese used different food resources proportional to their availability. Our study shows that in an agricultural landscape where nutritional value of food resources is homogeneously high and resource availability changes rapidly; foraging behaviour of geese is largely a tradeoff between fast refuelling and disturbance/predator avoidance.     

Relationship between arrival timing and breeding success of intra‐tropical migratory Fork‐tailed Flycatchers (Tyrannus savana)

For migratory birds, early arrival at breeding areas has many benefits, such as acquisition of better territories and mates. This strategy has been found in numerous species breeding at north‐temperate latitudes, but has not been yet reported for intra‐tropical migratory species. We evaluated the relationship between arrival date, initiation of breeding, and breeding success of Fork‐tailed Flycatchers (Tyrannus savana) breeding in southeastern Brazil and overwintering in northern South America. We color‐banded adult flycatchers during three breeding seasons and searched for them during the following breeding seasons. We also monitored nests from construction until either failure or fledging of young. We found that: (1) male Fork‐tailed Flycatchers arrived at the breeding site earlier than females, (2) males that arrived earlier had greater breeding success, and (3) nests where eggs were laid earlier in the breeding season were more likely to be successful than those where eggs were laid later. Male Fork‐tailed Flycatchers appeared to benefit from early arrival at a tropical breeding site, potentially mediated by their ability to acquire a high‐quality territory and mate as early as possible, and by the ability of their mate to begin breeding as early as possible. Breeding success for female Fork‐tailed Flycatchers may be determined primarily by a combination of the arrival date of their mate and how quickly they can begin breeding. Our results suggest that protandry occurs in an intra‐tropical migratory bird and that early arrival of males and early initiation of reproduction by females results in greater reproductive success. A better understanding of the underlying mechanisms that control the timing of migration and reproduction of this and other intra‐tropical migratory species is important for evaluating the challenges they face in light of current and future rapid environmental changes.     

Protandry, sexual selection and climate change

Protandry refers to the earlier appearance of males before females at sites of reproduction. Sexual selection has been hypothesized to give rise to sex differences in benefits and costs of early arrival, thereby selecting for earlier appearance by the sex subject to more intense sexual selection. If sexual selection is more intense, there is a greater premium on early arrival among individuals of the chosen sex because of direct selection for earlier arrival. This hypothesis leads to the prediction that changes in the costs and benefits of early arrival related to changes in environmental conditions should particularly affect the sex that arrives first and hence the degree of protandry. I tested this hypothesis using the Barn Swallow Hirundo rustica. During 1971–2003, the degree of protandry increased significantly in a Danish population because males advanced arrival date while females did not. This earlier arrival by males compared with females was correlated with a significant increase by over 1.2 standard deviations in the length of the outermost tail feathers of males, a secondary sexual character, suggesting direct selection on both protandry and the secondary sexual character. Environmental conditions during spring migration in Northern Africa, as reflected by the normalized difference vegetation index, have deteriorated since 1984, resulting in increased mortality among males during spring migration, but not among females, and this deterioration of climatic conditions was positively correlated with an increasing degree of protandry. Likewise, an increase in April temperatures at the breeding grounds during recent decades is positively correlated with increased protandry, apparently because males can arrive earlier without increasing the fitness cost of early arrival. Local population size did not predict changes in arrival date. These findings suggest that rapid changes in climate can cause a change in degree of protandry and secondary sexual characters.     

An ‘ecological trap’ for yellow warbler nest microhabitat selection

Contrary to assumptions of habitat selection theory, field studies frequently detect ‘ecological traps’, where animals prefer habitats conferring lower fitness than available alternatives. Evidence for traps includes cases where birds prefer breeding habitats associated with relatively high nest predation rates despite the importance of nest survival to avian fitness. Because birds select breeding habitat at multiple spatial scales, the processes underlying traps for birds are likely scale‐dependent. We studied a potential ecological trap for a population of yellow warblers Dendroica petechia while paying specific attention to spatial scale. We quantified nest microhabitat preference by comparing nest‐ versus random‐site microhabitat structure and related preferred microhabitat features with nest survival. Over a nine‐year study period and three study sites, we found a consistently negative relationship between preferred microhabitat patches and nest survival rates. Data from experimental nests described a similar relationship, corroborating the apparent positive relationship between preferred microhabitat and nest predation. As do other songbirds, yellow warblers select breeding habitat in at least two steps at two spatial scales; (1) they select territories at a coarser spatial scale and (2) nest microhabitats at a finer scale from within individual territories. By comparing nest versus random sites within territories, we showed that maladaptive nest microhabitat preferences arose during within‐territory nest site selection (step 2). Furthermore, nest predation rates varied at a fine enough scale to provide individual yellow warblers with lower‐predation alternatives to preferred microhabitats. Given these results, tradeoffs between nest survival and other fitness components are unlikely since fitness components other than nest survival are probably more relevant to territory‐scale habitat selection. Instead, exchanges of individuals among populations facing different predation regimes, the recent proliferation of the parasitic brown‐headed cowbird Molothrus ater, and/or anthropogenic changes to riparian vegetation structure are more likely explanations.     

Evidence for genetic differentiation in timing of maturation among nine‐spined stickleback populations

Timing of maturation is an important life‐history trait that is likely to be subjected to strong natural selection. Although population differences in timing of maturation have been frequently reported in studies of wild animal populations, little is known about the genetic basis of this differentiation. Here, we investigated population and sex differences in timing of maturation within and between two nine‐spined stickleback (Pungitius pungitius) populations in a laboratory breeding experiment. We found that fish from the high‐predation marine population matured earlier than fish from the low‐predation pond population and males matured earlier than females. Timing of maturation in both reciprocal hybrid crosses between the two populations was similar to that in the marine population, suggesting that early timing of maturation is a dominant trait, whereas delayed timing of maturation in the pond is a recessive trait. Thus, the observed population divergence is suggestive of strong natural selection against early maturation in the piscine‐predator‐free pond population.     

Dynamic occupancy models reveal within‐breeding season movement up a habitat quality gradient by a migratory songbird

The timing of settlement decisions likely influences the quality of breeding site choices.This is particularly the case in migratory birds, because the conditions that enhance breeding success are often not apparent upon arrival after migration. A strategy that addresses this problem is to adjust settlement decisions when reliable information becomes available. We used a new indirect method – dynamic site occupancy modeling – to estimate apparent movement of black‐throated blue warblers Dendroica caerulescens among sites within a breeding season. Because individuals should disperse to sites that maximize their fitness, we hypothesized that warblers would move up a habitat quality gradient when opportunities arose. For our study species, that would involve moving into sites with greater shrub density and at higher elevation within northern hardwoods forest, as these two features are positively correlated with reproduction and apparent survival in this species. Although the probability of site occupancy in our study landscape remained consistent throughout the breeding season (range: 0.66–0.69), occupancy models revealed substantial support for apparent movement of individuals within the breeding season. The mean probability of emigration from a point count site was 0.21 (±0.03 SE), and the mean probability of immigration to a site not previously occupied was 0.51 (±0.05 SE). The spatial distribution of this movement was a function of habitat quality. A portion of the black‐throated blue warbler population appears to arrive on the breeding grounds and settle initially in sub‐optimal habitat, moving subsequently into high quality densely shrubbed habitat at higher elevations. This modeling approach provides a new means to test hypotheses about habitat selection and movement by using presence–non‐detection data.     

Advancement of spring arrival in a long-term study of a passerine bird: sex,age and environmental effects

In migratory birds, mistimed arrival might have negative consequences for individual fitness, causing population declines. This may happen if arrival time is not synchronized with breeding time, especially when earlier springs favour earlier reproduction. We studied spring arrival time to the breeding areas in a pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca population in southern Norway during a 30-year period (1985–2014). We investigated trends in arrival both for the entire population and for different population fractions (e.g. early vs. late arrivals). We also studied sex and age class differences, along with repeatability of arrival. Finally, we explored how arrival is influenced by environmental conditions at the areas birds use throughout the year, using mixed-effects models and quantile regressions with individual-based data. Spring arrival advanced over five days, at a similar rate through the entire population. Males and adult birds arrived earlier than females and yearlings. Arrival was significantly repeatable for males and females. Birds arrived earlier in years with high temperature and rainfall at the breeding grounds, and low NDVI both on the Iberian Peninsula and in central Europe. Later fractions of the population showed a steeper response to these environmental variables. This intra-population heterogeneity in the responses to the environment probably stems from a combination between the different selection pressures individuals are subject to and their age-related experience. Our results highlight the importance of studying how migration phenology is affected by the environment not only on the breeding grounds but also on the other areas birds use throughout the year.     

Spatiotemporal patterns of duck nest density and predation risk: a multi‐scale analysis of 18 years and more than 10 000 nests

Many avian species are behaviorally‐plastic in selecting nest sites, and may shift to new locations or habitats following an unsuccessful breeding attempt. If there is predictable spatial variation in predation risk, the process of many individuals using prior experience to adaptively change nest sites may scale up to create shifting patterns of nest density at a population level. We used 18 years of waterfowl nesting data to assess whether there were areas of consistently high or low predation risk, and whether low‐risk areas increased, and high‐risk areas decreased in nest density the following year. We created kernel density maps of successful and unsuccessful nests in consecutive years and found no correlation in predation risk and no evidence for adaptive shifts, although nest density was correlated between years. We also examined between‐year correlations in nest density and nest success at three smaller spatial scales: individual nesting fields (10–28 ha), 16‐ha grid cells and 4‐ha grid cells. Here, results were similar across all scales: we found no evidence for year‐to‐year correlation in nest success but found strong evidence that nest density was correlated between years, and areas of high nest success increased in nest density the following year. Prior research in this system has demonstrated that areas of high nest density have higher nest success, and taken together, our results suggest that ducks may adaptively select nest sites based on the local density of conspecifics, rather than the physical location of last year's nest. In unpredictable environments, current cues, such as the presence of active conspecific nests, may be especially useful in selecting nest sites. The cues birds use to select breeding locations and successfully avoid predators deserve continued attention, especially in systems of conservation concern.     

How predation risk affects the temporal dynamics of avian leks: greater sage grouse versus golden eagles

Leks often attract predators as well as mates, yet most evolutionary models have assumed that sexual selection, not predation, drives lekking behavior. We explored the influence of predation on lek dynamics using a stochastic dynamic game model based on the lek-breeding greater sage grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) and its principal avian predator, the golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos). The model predicts time-dependent male lek attendance as a function of factors affecting both mating success (female arrival rate, male numbers, and social status) and predation risk (eagle arrival rate and group size). Dominant males are predicted to arrive sooner and leave later than subordinates, especially if mating skew is high, predation risk is low, or the relationship between lek size and female arrival rate is weak. Both high mean levels of predation risk and small lek size should reduce lek attendance, but the relative tendency of predators to attack large versus small leks has little influence on predicted lekking behavior. Field observations confirmed the predicted effects of female arrival rate, lek size, male dominance, and weather-dependent predator arrival rates on lek departure times. Predicted effects of female arrival rates and male dominance on seasonal lek attendance were also supported. Our model provides an empirically supported adaptive explanation for short-term lek dynamics. It also suggests alternative interpretations for phenomena previously invoked to support the hotshot and skew models of lek formation.     

Why do earlier‐arriving migratory birds have better breeding success?

In migratory birds, early arrival on breeding sites is typically associated with greater breeding success, but the mechanisms driving these benefits are rarely known. One mechanism through which greater breeding success among early arrivers can potentially be achieved is the increased time available for replacement clutches following nest loss. However, the contribution of replacement clutches to breeding success will depend on seasonal variation in nest survival rates, and the consequences for juvenile recruitment of hatching at different times in the season. In particular, lower recruitment rates of late‐hatched chicks could offset the benefits to early arrivers of being able to lay replacement clutches, which would reduce the likelihood of replacement clutch opportunities influencing selection on migratory timings. Using a simulation model of time‐constrained capacity for replacement clutches, paramaterized with empirically‐derived estimates from avian migratory systems, we show that greater reproductive success among early‐arriving individuals can arise solely through the greater time capacity for replacement clutches among early arrivers, even when later renesting attempts contribute fewer recruits to the population. However, these relationships vary depending on the seasonal pattern of nest survival. The benefits of early arrival are greatest when nest survival rates are constant or decline seasonally, and early arrival is least beneficial when nest success rates increase over the breeding season, although replacement clutches can mitigate this effect. The time benefits of early arrival facilitating replacement clutches following nest loss may therefore be an important but overlooked source of selection on migratory timings. Empirical measures of seasonal variation in nest survival, renesting, and juvenile recruitment rates are therefore needed in order to identify the costs and benefits associated with individual migration phenology, the selection pressures influencing migratory timings, and the implications for ongoing shifts in migration and breeding phenology.     

Sex‐ and age‐dependent morphology and selection on wing shape in the barn swallow Hirundo rustica

Wings have evolved in phylogenetically distant organisms with morphologies that depend on the combined effects of diverse, potentially contrasting selective forces. In birds, long pointed wings boost speed and energetic efficiency during cruising flight but reduce manoeuvrability. Migratory behavior is believed to lead to the evolution of more pointed wings, but selection on pointedness has never been estimated. Because annual routines of migrants are tightly scheduled, wing pointedness may be selected for because it allows for earlier arrival to the breeding grounds. In long‐distance migratory barn swallows Hirundo rustica we showed that selection via breeding date and thus annual fecundity operates on wing pointedness, but not on other wing traits, among yearling females but not among older females or males. Selection on wing pointedness specifically in yearling females may result from climatic effects, which favour earlier arrival from migration, and from yearling females being the sex‐by‐age class with the latest migration and the smallest wing pointedness. Wing morphology differed between sexes and age classes because of change in size of the outermost but not the innermost wing feathers. Hence, sex‐ and age‐specific selection on wing pointedness operates in a species with sex‐ and age‐dependent variation in phenology and wing morphology.     

Examining carry‐over effects of winter habitat on breeding phenology and reproductive success in prairie warblers Setophaga discolor

Winter habitat quality can influence breeding phenology and reproductive success of migratory birds. Using stable isotope ratios of carbon (δ¹³C) from bird claws and red blood cells collected in Massachusetts, USA, we assessed if winter habitat occupancy carried over to affect prairie warbler Setophaga discolor breeding arrival dates, body condition upon arrival, pairing success, first‐egg dates and reproductive success. In two of three years (in 2011 and 2012, but not in 2013), after‐second‐year (ASY) males wintering in drier habitat, as indicated by enriched δ¹³C values, arrived later on the breeding grounds. Based on the North Atlantic Oscillation index, there was likely less rainfall in the Caribbean wintering grounds during the winters of 2011 and 2012 compared to the winter of 2013, suggesting increased winter rainfall in 2013 may have diminished the influence of winter habitat occupancy on arrival date. We did not find any effects of winter habitat on breeding season phenomena for second‐year (SY) males or females, but our sample sizes for these age/sex classes were relatively low. Although winter habitat quality influenced arrival dates of ASY males, there was no evidence that it affected reproductive performance, perhaps because of high rates of nest depredation in our system. Our study adds to a growing body of research that shows the influence of carry‐over effects can differ among species and within populations, and also can be modulated by other environmental conditions. This information enriches our understanding of the role of carry‐over effects in population limitation for migratory birds.