Environmental Variation Generates Environmental Opportunist Pathogen Outbreaks

Many socio-economically important pathogens persist and grow in the outside host environment and opportunistically invade host individuals. The environmental growth and opportunistic nature of these pathogens has received only little attention in epidemiology. Environmental reservoirs are, however, an important source of novel diseases. Thus, attempts to control these diseases require different approaches than in traditional epidemiology focusing on obligatory parasites. Conditions in the outside-host environment are prone to fluctuate over time. This variation is a potentially important driver of epidemiological dynamics and affect the evolution of novel diseases. Using a modelling approach combining the traditional SIRS models to environmental opportunist pathogens and environmental variability, we show that epidemiological dynamics of opportunist diseases are profoundly driven by the quality of environmental variability, such as the long-term predictability and magnitude of fluctuations. When comparing periodic and stochastic environmental factors, for a given variance, stochastic variation is more likely to cause outbreaks than periodic variation. This is due to the extreme values being further away from the mean. Moreover, the effects of variability depend on the underlying biology of the epidemiological system, and which part of the system is being affected. Variation in host susceptibility leads to more severe pathogen outbreaks than variation in pathogen growth rate in the environment. Positive correlation in variation on both targets can cancel the effect of variation altogether. Moreover, the severity of outbreaks is significantly reduced by increase in the duration of immunity. Uncovering these issues helps in understanding and controlling diseases caused by environmental pathogens.     

The Influence of Infective Dose on the Virulence of a Generalist Pathogen in Rainbow Trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and Zebra Fish (Danio rerio)

Pathogen density and genetic diversity fluctuate in the outside-host environment during and between epidemics, affecting disease emergence and the severity and probability of infections. Although the importance of these factors for pathogen virulence and infection probability has been acknowledged, their interactive effects are not well understood. We studied how an infective dose in an environmentally transmitted opportunistic fish pathogen, Flavobacterium columnare, affects its virulence both in rainbow trout, which are frequently infected at fish farms, and in zebra fish, a host that is not naturally infected by F. columnare. We used previously isolated strains of confirmed high and low virulence in a single infection and in a co-infection. Infection success (measured as host morbidity) correlated positively with dose when the hosts were exposed to the high-virulence strain, but no response for the dose increase was found when the hosts were exposed to the low-virulence strain. Interestingly, the co-infection resulted in poorer infection success than the single infection with the high-virulence strain. The rainbow trout were more susceptible to the infection than the zebra fish but, in both species, the effects of the doses and the strains were qualitatively similar. We suggest that as an increase in dose can lead to increased host morbidity, both the interstrain interactions and differences in infectivity in different hosts may influence the severity and consequently the evolution of disease. Our results also confirm that the zebra fish is a good laboratory model to study F. columnare infection.     

Understanding resistant germplasm‐induced virulence variation through analysis of proteomics and suppression subtractive hybridization in a maize pathogen Curvularia lunata

Curvularia lunata is an important pathogen causing Curvularia leaf spot in maize. Significant pathogenic variation has been found in C. lunata. To better understand the mechanism of this phenomenon, we consecutively put the selective pressures of resistant maize population on C. lunata strain WS18 (low virulence) artificially. As a result, the virulence of this strain was significantly enhanced. Using 2DE, 12 up‐regulated and four down‐regulated proteins were identified in virulence‐increased strain compared to WS18. Our analysis revealed that melanin synthesis‐related proteins (Brn1, Brn2, and scytalone dehydratase) and stress tolerance‐related proteins (HSP 70) directly involved in the potential virulence growth as crucial markers or factors in C. lunata. To validate 2DE results and screen differential genes at mRNA level, we constructed a subtracted cDNA library (tester: virulence‐increased strain; driver: WS18). A total of 188 unigenes were obtained this way, of which 14 were indicators for the evolution of pathogen virulence. Brn1 and hsp genes exhibited similar expression patterns corresponding to proteins detected by 2DE. Overall, our results indicated that differential proteins or genes, being involved with melanin synthesis or tolerance response to stress, could be considered as hallmarks of virulence increase in C. lunata.     

Influence of Vectors’ Risk-Spreading Strategies and Environmental Stochasticity on the Epidemiology and Evolution of Vector-Borne Diseases: The Example of Chagas’ Disease

Insects are known to display strategies that spread the risk of encountering unfavorable conditions, thereby decreasing the extinction probability of genetic lineages in unpredictable environments. To what extent these strategies influence the epidemiology and evolution of vector-borne diseases in stochastic environments is largely unknown. In triatomines, the vectors of the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas’ disease, juvenile development time varies between individuals and such variation most likely decreases the extinction risk of vector populations in stochastic environments. We developed a simplified multi-stage vector-borne SI epidemiological model to investigate how vector risk-spreading strategies and environmental stochasticity influence the prevalence and evolution of a parasite. This model is based on available knowledge on triatomine biodemography, but its conceptual outcomes apply, to a certain extent, to other vector-borne diseases. Model comparisons between deterministic and stochastic settings led to the conclusion that environmental stochasticity, vector risk-spreading strategies (in particular an increase in the length and variability of development time) and their interaction have drastic consequences on vector population dynamics, disease prevalence, and the relative short-term evolution of parasite virulence. Our work shows that stochastic environments and associated risk-spreading strategies can increase the prevalence of vector-borne diseases and favor the invasion of more virulent parasite strains on relatively short evolutionary timescales. This study raises new questions and challenges in a context of increasingly unpredictable environmental variations as a result of global climate change and human interventions such as habitat destruction or vector control.     

Evolution of virulence in heterogeneous host communities under multiple trade-offs

Many pathogens and parasites are transmitted through hosts that differ in species, sex, genotype, or immune status. In addition, virulence (here defined as disease-induced mortality) and transmission can vary during the infectious period within hosts of different state. Most models of virulence evolution assume that transmission and virulence are constant over the infectious period and that the host population is homogenous. Here, we examine a multispecies susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model where transmission occurs within and between species, and transmission and virulence varied during the infectious period. This allows us to understand virulence evolution in a broader range of situations that characterize many emerging diseases. Because emerging pathogens are by definition new to their host populations, they should be expected to rapidly adapt after emergence. We illustrate these evolutionary effects using the framework of adaptive dynamics to examine how virulence evolves after emergence in response to the relative strength of selection on pathogen fitness and mutational variance for virulence. We illustrate the role of evolution by simulating adaptive walks to an evolutionarily stable virulence. We found that the magnitude of between-species transmission and the relative timing of transmission and mortality across species were of primary importance for determining the evolutionarily stable virulence.     

The curse of the pharaoh in space: free-living infectious stages and the evolution of virulence in spatially explicit populations

The idea that parasites with long-lived infective stages may evolve higher virulence has received considerable attention. This idea is called 'the curse of the pharaoh' because of the hypothesis that the death of Lord Carnavon was caused by very long-lived propagules of a highly virulent infectious disease. Here, we examined the evolution of diseases that transmit via free-living stages in a spatial context. We show that, if virulence evolves independently of transmission, long-lived infective stages can select for higher virulence. There is always the evolution of a finite transmission rate, which becomes higher when the infective stages are shorter lived. When a trade-off occurs between transmission and virulence, we show that there is no evidence for the curse of the pharaoh. Indeed, higher transmission and therefore virulence may be selected for by shorter rather than long-lived infective stages.     

Evolution of dispersal in a multi‐trophic community context

Much is known about the evolution of dispersal when species interact with their resources or natural enemies, but very little is known about dispersal evolution when species interact with both resources and natural enemies. Here I investigate how the dispersal of an intermediate consumer evolves in response to its interactions with a basal resource and top predator. I find that dispersal evolution is possible even when the consumer species is not directly affected by environmental variability, but rather experiences the consequences that such variability has on its resource and predator. Spatial variation in the consumer's fitness is driven by spatial heterogeneity in resource productivity, which determines whether a predator can colonize a resource‐consumer community. Temporal variation in the consumer's fitness is driven by random disturbances that cause periodic local extinctions of the predator, followed by recolonizations that lead to transient fluctuations in consumer abundance. When spatial variation in resource productivity is low and the predator can colonize all patches in the landscape, there is no spatial variation in consumer fitness but temporal variation in fitness favors the evolution of a dispersal monomorphism. When spatial variation in resource productivity is high and the predator cannot colonize many patches in the landscape, spatial variation in fitness selects against dispersal. In this case, temporal variation can promote the evolution of a dispersal polymorphism with sedentary and mobile phenotypes, but only for certain types of tri‐trophic interactions. This finding underscores the importance of indirect interactions in shaping the evolution of dispersal. While the ecological community can provide a strong selective environment for the evolution of dispersal, the nature of interactions between trophic levels can also impose constraints on evolution.     

Plasticity is a locally adapted trait with consequences for ecological dynamics in novel environments

Phenotypic plasticity is predicted to evolve in more variable environments, conferring an advantage on individual lifetime fitness. It is less clear what the potential consequences of that plasticity will have on ecological population dynamics. Here, we use an invertebrate model system to examine the effects of environmental variation (resource availability) on the evolution of phenotypic plasticity in two life history traits—age and size at maturation—in long‐running, experimental density‐dependent environments. Specifically, we then explore the feedback from evolution of life history plasticity to subsequent ecological dynamics in novel conditions. Plasticity in both traits initially declined in all microcosm environments, but then evolved increased plasticity for age‐at‐maturation, significantly so in more environmentally variable environments. We also demonstrate how plasticity affects ecological dynamics by creating founder populations of different plastic phenotypes into new microcosms that had either familiar or novel environments. Populations originating from periodically variable environments that had evolved greatest plasticity had lowest variability in population size when introduced to novel environments than those from constant or random environments. This suggests that while plasticity may be costly it can confer benefits by reducing the likelihood that offspring will experience low survival through competitive bottlenecks in variable environments. In this study, we demonstrate how plasticity evolves in response to environmental variation and can alter population dynamics—demonstrating an eco‐evolutionary feedback loop in a complex animal moderated by plasticity in growth.     

Serial infection of diverse host (Mus) genotypes rapidly impedes pathogen fitness and virulence

Reduced genetic variation among hosts may favour the emergence of virulent infectious diseases by enhancing pathogen replication and its associated virulence due to adaptation to a limited set of host genotypes. Here, we test this hypothesis using experimental evolution of a mouse-specific retroviral pathogen, Friend virus (FV) complex. We demonstrate rapid fitness (i.e. viral titre) and virulence increases when FV complex serially infects a series of inbred mice representing the same genotype, but not when infecting a diverse array of inbred mouse strains modelling the diversity in natural host populations. Additionally, a single infection of a different host genotype was sufficient to constrain the emergence of a high fitness/high virulence FV complex phenotype in these experiments. The potent inhibition of viral fitness and virulence was associated with an observed loss of the defective retroviral genome (spleen focus-forming virus), whose presence exacerbates infection and drives disease in susceptible mice. Results from our experiments provide an important first step in understanding how genetic variation among vertebrate hosts influences pathogen evolution and suggests that serial exposure to different genotypes within a single host species may act as a constraint on pathogen adaptation that prohibits the emergence of more virulent infections. From a practical perspective, these results have implications for low-diversity host populations such as endangered species and domestic animals.     

Coevolution of parasite virulence and host life history

Most models about the evolutionary interactions between a parasite's virulence and its host's life history neglect two potentially important aspects: epidemiological and coevolutionary feedback. We emphasize their importance by presenting models that describe the coevolution of a semelparous host's age at reproduction and a parasite's virulence in different environmental conditions. In particular, we first show that an epidemiological feedback will lead to a nonmonotonic response of the host's age at reproduction as virulence increases. We then show that the coevolutionary pressure on virulence can lead to complex associations between the host's life history and the parasite's virulence, which would not be expected with more traditional models of host or parasite evolution. Thus, for example, a high mortality rate of the host favours avirulent parasites and late reproduction of the host when the environmental conditions allow the host to grow rapidly, but early reproduction and high virulence when growth is slow.     

Effects of host heterogeneity on pathogen diversity and evolution

Phenotypic variation is common in most pathogens, yet the mechanisms that maintain this diversity are still poorly understood. We asked whether continuous host variation in susceptibility helps maintain phenotypic variation, using experiments conducted with a baculovirus that infects gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) larvae. We found that an empirically observed tradeoff between mean transmission rate and variation in transmission, which results from host heterogeneity, promotes long‐term coexistence of two pathogen types in simulations of a population model. This tradeoff introduces an alternative strategy for the pathogen: a low‐transmission, low‐variability type can coexist with the high‐transmission type favoured by classical non‐heterogeneity models. In addition, this tradeoff can help explain the extensive phenotypic variation we observed in field‐collected pathogen isolates, in traits affecting virus fitness including transmission and environmental persistence. Similar heterogeneity tradeoffs might be a general mechanism promoting phenotypic variation in any pathogen for which hosts vary continuously in susceptibility.     

Genetic basis of between‐individual and within‐individual variance of docility

Between‐individual variation in phenotypes within a population is the basis of evolution. However, evolutionary and behavioural ecologists have mainly focused on estimating between‐individual variance in mean trait and neglected variation in within‐individual variance, or predictability of a trait. In fact, an important assumption of mixed‐effects models used to estimate between‐individual variance in mean traits is that within‐individual residual variance (predictability) is identical across individuals. Individual heterogeneity in the predictability of behaviours is a potentially important effect but rarely estimated and accounted for. We used 11 389 measures of docility behaviour from 1576 yellow‐bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris) to estimate between‐individual variation in both mean docility and its predictability. We then implemented a double hierarchical animal model to decompose the variances of both mean trait and predictability into their environmental and genetic components. We found that individuals differed both in their docility and in their predictability of docility with a negative phenotypic covariance. We also found significant genetic variance for both mean docility and its predictability but no genetic covariance between the two. This analysis is one of the first to estimate the genetic basis of both mean trait and within‐individual variance in a wild population. Our results indicate that equal within‐individual variance should not be assumed. We demonstrate the evolutionary importance of the variation in the predictability of docility and illustrate potential bias in models ignoring variation in predictability. We conclude that the variability in the predictability of a trait should not be ignored, and present a coherent approach for its quantification.     

A Novel Statistical Model to Estimate Host Genetic Effects Affecting Disease Transmission

There is increasing recognition that genetic diversity can affect the spread of diseases, potentially affecting plant and livestock disease control as well as the emergence of human disease outbreaks. Nevertheless, even though computational tools can guide the control of infectious diseases, few epidemiological models can simultaneously accommodate the inherent individual heterogeneity in multiple infectious disease traits influencing disease transmission, such as the frequently modeled propensity to become infected and infectivity, which describes the host ability to transmit the infection to susceptible individuals. Furthermore, current quantitative genetic models fail to fully capture the heritable variation in host infectivity, mainly because they cannot accommodate the nonlinear infection dynamics underlying epidemiological data. We present in this article a novel statistical model and an inference method to estimate genetic parameters associated with both host susceptibility and infectivity. Our methodology combines quantitative genetic models of social interactions with stochastic processes to model the random, nonlinear, and dynamic nature of infections and uses adaptive Bayesian computational techniques to estimate the model parameters. Results using simulated epidemic data show that our model can accurately estimate heritabilities and genetic risks not only of susceptibility but also of infectivity, therefore exploring a trait whose heritable variation is currently ignored in disease genetics and can greatly influence the spread of infectious diseases. Our proposed methodology offers potential impacts in areas such as livestock disease control through selective breeding and also in predicting and controlling the emergence of disease outbreaks in human populations.     

Short‐term insurance versus long‐term bet‐hedging strategies as adaptations to variable environments

Understanding how organisms adapt to environmental variation is a key challenge of biology. Central to this are bet‐hedging strategies that maximize geometric mean fitness across generations, either by being conservative or diversifying phenotypes. Theoretical models have identified environmental variation across generations with multiplicative fitness effects as driving the evolution of bet‐hedging. However, behavioral ecology has revealed adaptive responses to additive fitness effects of environmental variation within lifetimes, either through insurance or risk‐sensitive strategies. Here, we explore whether the effects of adaptive insurance interact with the evolution of bet‐hedging by varying the position and skew of both arithmetic and geometric mean fitness functions. We find that insurance causes the optimal phenotype to shift from the peak to down the less steeply decreasing side of the fitness function, and that conservative bet‐hedging produces an additional shift on top of this, which decreases as adaptive phenotypic variation from diversifying bet‐hedging increases. When diversifying bet‐hedging is not an option, environmental canalization to reduce phenotypic variation is almost always favored, except where the tails of the fitness function are steeply convex and produce a novel risk‐sensitive increase in phenotypic variance akin to diversifying bet‐hedging. Importantly, using skewed fitness functions, we provide the first model that explicitly addresses how conservative and diversifying bet‐hedging strategies might coexist.     

A UNIFIED MODEL FOR THE COEVOLUTION OF RESISTANCE,TOLERANCE, AND VIRULENCE

We present a general host–parasite model that unifies previous theory by investigating the coevolution of virulence, resistance, and tolerance, with respect to multiple physiological, epidemiological, and environmental parameters. Four sets of new predictions emerge. First, compared to virulence coevolving with resistance or tolerance, three‐trait coevolution promotes more virulence and less tolerance, and broadens conditions under which pure defenses evolve. Second, the cost and efficiency of virulence and the epidemiological rates are the key factors of virulence coevolving with resistance and tolerance. Maximum virulence evolves for intermediate infection rate, at which coevolved levels of resistance and tolerance are both high. The influence of host and parasite background mortalities is strong on the evolution of defenses and weak on the coevolution of virulence. Third, evolutionary correlations between defenses can switch sign along single‐parameter gradients. The evolutionary trade‐off between resistance and tolerance may coevolve with virulence that either increases or decreases monotonically, depending on the underlying parameter gradient. Fourth, despite global attractiveness and stability of coevolutionary equilibria, not‐so‐rare and not‐so‐small mutations can beget large variation in virulence and defenses around equilibrium, in the form of transient “evolutionary spikes.” Implications for evolutionary management of infections are discussed and directions for future research are outlined.     

Temporal variation can facilitate niche evolution in harsh sink environments

We examine the impact of temporal variation on adaptive evolution in "sink" environments, where a species encounters conditions outside its niche. Sink populations persist because of recurrent immigration from sources. Prior studies have highlighted the importance of demographic constraints on adaptive evolution in sinks and revealed that adaptation is less likely in harsher sinks. We examine two complementary models of population and evolutionary dynamics in sinks: a continuous-state quantitative-genetics model and an individual-based model. In the former, genetic variance is fixed; in the latter, genetic variance varies because of mutation, drift, and sampling. In both models, a population in a constant harsh sink environment can exist in alternative states: local maladaptation (phenotype comparable to immigrants from the source) or adaptation (phenotype near the local optimum). Temporal variation permits transitions between these states. We show that moderate amounts of temporal variation can facilitate adaptive evolution in sinks, permitting niche evolution, particularly for slow or autocorrelated variation. Such patterns of temporal variation may particularly pertain to sinks caused by biotic interactions (e.g., predation). Our results are relevant to the evolutionary dynamics of species' ranges, the fate of exotic invasive species, and the evolutionary emergence of infectious diseases into novel hosts.     

Emergence and prevalence of human vector-borne diseases in sink vector populations

Vector-borne diseases represent a major public health concern in most tropical and subtropical areas, and an emerging threat for more developed countries. Our understanding of the ecology, evolution and control of these diseases relies predominantly on theory and data on pathogen transmission in large self-sustaining 'source' populations of vectors representative of highly endemic areas. However, there are numerous places where environmental conditions are less favourable to vector populations, but where immigration allows them to persist. We built an epidemiological model to investigate the dynamics of six major human vector borne-diseases in such non self-sustaining 'sink' vector populations. The model was parameterized through a review of the literature, and we performed extensive sensitivity analysis to look at the emergence and prevalence of the pathogen that could be encountered in these populations. Despite the low vector abundance in typical sink populations, all six human diseases were able to spread in 15-55% of cases after accidental introduction. The rate of spread was much more strongly influenced by vector longevity, immigration and feeding rates, than by transmission and virulence of the pathogen. Prevalence in humans remained lower than 5% for dengue, leishmaniasis and Japanese encephalitis, but substantially higher for diseases with longer duration of infection; malaria and the American and African trypanosomiasis. Vector-related parameters were again the key factors, although their influence was lower than on pathogen emergence. Our results emphasize the need for ecology and evolution to be thought in the context of metapopulations made of a mosaic of sink and source habitats, and to design vector control program not only targeting areas of high vector density, but working at a larger spatial scale.     

Epigenetically facilitated mutational assimilation: epigenetics as a hub within the inclusive evolutionary synthesis

After decades of debate about the existence of non‐genetic inheritance, the focus is now slowly shifting towards dissecting its underlying mechanisms. Here, we propose a new mechanism that, by integrating non‐genetic and genetic inheritance, may help build the long‐sought inclusive vision of evolution. After briefly reviewing the wealth of evidence documenting the existence and ubiquity of non‐genetic inheritance in a table, we review the categories of mechanisms of parent–offspring resemblance that underlie inheritance. We then review several lines of argument for the existence of interactions between non‐genetic and genetic components of inheritance, leading to a discussion of the contrasting timescales of action of non‐genetic and genetic inheritance. This raises the question of how the fidelity of the inheritance system can match the rate of environmental variation. This question is central to understanding the role of different inheritance systems in evolution. We then review and interpret evidence indicating the existence of shifts from inheritance systems with low to higher transmission fidelity. Based on results from different research fields we propose a conceptual hypothesis linking genetic and non‐genetic inheritance systems. According to this hypothesis, over the course of generations, shifts among information systems allow gradual matching between the rate of environmental change and the inheritance fidelity of the corresponding response. A striking conclusion from our review is that documented shifts between types of inherited non‐genetic information converge towards epigenetics (i.e. inclusively heritable molecular variation in gene expression without change in DNA sequence). We then interpret the well‐documented mutagenicity of epigenetic marks as potentially generating a final shift from epigenetic to genetic encoding. This sequence of shifts suggests the existence of a relay in inheritance systems from relatively labile ones to gradually more persistent modes of inheritance, a relay that could constitute a new mechanistic basis for the long‐proposed, but still poorly documented, hypothesis of genetic assimilation. A profound difference between the genocentric and the inclusive vision of heredity revealed by the genetic assimilation relay proposed here lies in the fact that a given form of inheritance can affect the rate of change of other inheritance systems. To explore the consequences of such inter‐connection among inheritance systems, we briefly review published theoretical models to build a model of genetic assimilation focusing on the shift in the engraving of environmentally induced phenotypic variation into the DNA sequence. According to this hypothesis, when environmental change remains stable over a sufficient number of generations, the relay among inheritance systems has the potential to generate a form of genetic assimilation. In this hypothesis, epigenetics appears as a hub by which non‐genetically inherited environmentally induced variation in traits can become genetically encoded over generations, in a form of epigenetically facilitated mutational assimilation. Finally, we illustrate some of the major implications of our hypothetical framework, concerning mutation randomness, the central dogma of molecular biology, concepts of inheritance and the curing of inherited disorders, as well as for the emergence of the inclusive evolutionary synthesis.     

The Streptococcus sanguinis competence regulon is not required for infective endocarditis virulence in a rabbit model

Streptococcus sanguinis is an important component of dental plaque and a leading cause of infective endocarditis. Genetic competence in S. sanguinis requires a quorum sensing system encoded by the early comCDE genes, as well as late genes controlled by the alternative sigma factor, ComX. Previous studies of Streptococcus pneumoniae and Streptococcus mutans have identified functions for the >100-gene com regulon in addition to DNA uptake, including virulence. We investigated this possibility in S. sanguinis. Strains deleted for the comCDE or comX master regulatory genes were created. Using a rabbit endocarditis model in conjunction with a variety of virulence assays, we determined that both mutants possessed infectivity equivalent to that of a virulent control strain, and that measures of disease were similar in rabbits infected with each strain. These results suggest that the com regulon is not required for S. sanguinis infective endocarditis virulence in this model. We propose that the different roles of the S. sanguinis, S. pneumoniae, and S. mutans com regulons in virulence can be understood in relation to the pathogenic mechanisms employed by each species.