Quantifying variation in forest disturbance,and its effects on aboveground biomass dynamics,across the eastern United States

The role of tree mortality in the global carbon balance is complicated by strong spatial and temporal heterogeneity that arises from the stochastic nature of carbon loss through disturbance. Characterizing spatio‐temporal variation in mortality (including disturbance) and its effects on forest and carbon dynamics is thus essential to understanding the current global forest carbon sink, and to predicting how it will change in future. We analyzed forest inventory data from the eastern United States to estimate plot‐level variation in mortality (relative to a long‐term background rate for individual trees) for nine distinct forest regions. Disturbances that produced at least a fourfold increase in tree mortality over an approximately 5 year interval were observed in 1–5% of plots in each forest region. The frequency of disturbance was lowest in the northeast, and increased southwards along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts as fire and hurricane disturbances became progressively more common. Across the central and northern parts of the region, natural disturbances appeared to reflect a diffuse combination of wind, insects, disease, and ice storms. By linking estimated covariation in tree growth and mortality over time with a data‐constrained forest dynamics model, we simulated the implications of stochastic variation in mortality for long‐term aboveground biomass changes across the eastern United States. A geographic gradient in disturbance frequency induced notable differences in biomass dynamics between the least‐ and most‐disturbed regions, with variation in mortality causing the latter to undergo considerably stronger fluctuations in aboveground stand biomass over time. Moreover, regional simulations showed that a given long‐term increase in mean mortality rates would support greater aboveground biomass when expressed through disturbance effects compared with background mortality, particularly for early‐successional species. The effects of increased tree mortality on carbon stocks and forest composition may thus depend partly on whether future mortality increases are chronic or episodic in nature.     

Could increased boreal forest ecosystem productivity offset carbon losses from increased disturbances?

To understand how boreal forest carbon (C) dynamics might respond to anticipated climatic changes, we must consider two important processes. First, projected climatic changes are expected to increase the frequency of fire and other natural disturbances that would change the forest age-class structure and reduce forest C stocks at the landscape level. Second, global change may result in increased net primary production (NPP). Could higher NPP offset anticipated C losses resulting from increased disturbances? We used the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector to simulate rate changes in disturbance, growth and decomposition on a hypothetical boreal forest landscape and to explore the impacts of these changes on landscape-level forest C budgets. We found that significant increases in net ecosystem production (NEP) would be required to balance C losses from increased natural disturbance rates. Moreover, increases in NEP would have to be sustained over several decades and be widespread across the landscape. Increased NEP can only be realized when NPP is enhanced relative to heterotrophic respiration. This study indicates that boreal forest C stocks may decline as a result of climate change because it would be difficult for enhanced growth to offset C losses resulting from anticipated increases in disturbances.     

Chronosequence predictions are robust in a Neotropical secondary forest,but plots miss the mark

Tropical secondary forests (TSF) are a global carbon sink of 1.6 Pg C/year. However, TSF carbon uptake is estimated using chronosequence studies that assume differently aged forests can be used to predict change in aboveground biomass density (AGBD) over time. We tested this assumption using two airborne lidar datasets separated by 11.5 years over a Neotropical landscape. Using data from 1998, we predicted canopy height and AGBD within 1.1 and 10.3% of observations in 2009, with higher accuracy for forest height than AGBD and for older TSFs in comparison to younger ones. This result indicates that the space‐for‐time assumption is robust at the landscape‐scale. However, since lidar measurements of secondary tropical forest are rare, we used the 1998 lidar dataset to test how well plot‐based studies quantify the mean TSF height and biomass in a landscape. We found that the sample area required to produce estimates of height or AGBD close to the landscape mean is larger than the typical area sampled in secondary forest chronosequence studies. For example, estimating AGBD within 10% of the landscape mean requires more than thirty 0.1 ha plots per age class, and more total area for larger plots. We conclude that under‐sampling in ground‐based studies may introduce error into estimations of the TSF carbon sink, and that this error can be reduced by more extensive use of lidar measurements.     

Does the disturbance hypothesis explain the biomass increase in basin‐wide Amazon forest plot data?

Positive aboveground biomass trends have been reported from old-growth forests across the Amazon basin and hypothesized to reflect a large-scale response to exterior forcing. The result could, however, be an artefact due to a sampling bias induced by the nature of forest growth dynamics. Here, we characterize statistically the disturbance process in Amazon old-growth forests as recorded in 135 forest plots of the RAINFOR network up to 2006, and other independent research programmes, and explore the consequences of sampling artefacts using a data-based stochastic simulator. Over the observed range of annual aboveground biomass losses, standard statistical tests show that the distribution of biomass losses through mortality follow an exponential or near-identical Weibull probability distribution and not a power law as assumed by others. The simulator was parameterized using both an exponential disturbance probability distribution as well as a mixed exponential–power law distribution to account for potential large-scale blowdown events. In both cases, sampling biases turn out to be too small to explain the gains detected by the extended RAINFOR plot network. This result lends further support to the notion that currently observed biomass gains for intact forests across the Amazon are actually occurring over large scales at the current time, presumably as a response to climate change.     

Hyperspectral remote detection of niche partitioning among canopy trees driven by blowdown gap disturbances in the Central Amazon

Advanced recruitment and neutral processes play important roles in determining tree species composition in tropical forest canopy gaps, with few gaps experiencing clear secondary successional processes. However, most studies are limited to the relatively limited spatial scales provided by forest inventory plots, and investigations over the entire range of gap size are needed to better understand how ecological processes vary with tree mortality events. This study employed a landscape approach to test the hypothesis that tree species composition and forest structural attributes differ between large blowdown gaps and relatively undisturbed primary forest. Spectral mixture analysis on hyperspectral satellite imagery was employed to direct field sampling to widely distributed sites, and blowdown plots were compared with undisturbed primary forest plots. Tree species composition and forest structural attributes differed markedly between gap and non-gap sites, providing evidence of niche partitioning in response to disturbance across the region. Large gaps were dominated by classic Neotropical pioneer genera such as Cecropia and Vismia, and average tree size was significantly smaller. Mean wood density of trees recovering in large gaps (0.55 g cm⁻³) was significantly lower than in primary forest plots (0.71 g cm⁻³), a difference similar to that found when comparing less dynamic (i.e., tree recruitment, growth, and mortality) Central Amazon forests with more dynamic Western Amazon forests. Based on results, we hypothesize that the importance of neutral processes weaken, and niche processes strengthen, in determining community assembly along a gradient in gap size and tree mortality intensity. Over evolutionary time scales, pervasive dispersal among colonizers could result in the loss of tree diversity in the pioneer guild through competitive exclusion. Results also underscore the importance of considering disturbance processes across the landscape when addressing forest carbon balance.     

Intermediate disturbances are a key driver of long‐term tree demography across old‐growth temperate forests

Disentangling the relative influence of background versus disturbance related mortality on forest demography is crucial for understanding long‐term dynamics and predicting the influence of global change on forests. Quantifying the rates and drivers of tree demography requires direct observations of tree populations over multiple decades, yet such studies are rare in old‐growth forest, particularly in the temperate zone of Europe. We use multi‐decade (1980–2020) monitoring of permanent plots, including observations of mode of mortality and disturbance events, to quantify rates and drivers of tree demography across a network of old‐growth remnants in temperate mountain forests of Slovenia. Annual rates of mortality and recruitment varied markedly among sites and over time; census intervals that captured intermediate severity canopy disturbances caused subtle peaks in annual mortality (e.g., >2%/year), while rates of background mortality in non‐disturbed intervals averaged about 1%/year. Roughly half of the trees died from modes of mortality associated with disturbance (i.e., uprooting or snapped‐alive). Results of a Bayesian multilevel model indicate that beech (Fagus sylvatica) had a higher likelihood of disturbance related mortality compared to fir (Abies alba), which mainly died standing, and there was a notable increase in the odds of disturbance mortality with increasing diameter for all species. Annual recruitment rates were consistently low at sites (<0.5%) that lacked evidence of disturbance, but often exceeded 3% on sites with higher levels of past canopy mortality. Recruitment was dominated by beech on sites with more diffuse background mortality, while the less shade tolerant maple (Acer pseudoplatanus) recruited following known disturbance events. Our study highlights the important role of stand‐scale, partial canopy disturbance for long‐term forest demography. These results suggest that subtle climate‐driven changes in the regime of intermediate severity disturbances could have an important influence on future forest dynamics and warrant attention.     

Disturbances,Their Interactions,and Cumulative Effects on Carbon and Charcoal Stocks in a Forested Ecosystem

Disturbances have a strong role in the carbon balance of many ecosystems, and the cycle of vegetation growth, disturbance, and recovery is very important in determining the net carbon balance of terrestrial biomes. Compound disturbances are phenomena of growing concern which can impact ecosystems in novel ways, altering disturbance intensity, severity, and recovery trajectories. This research focuses on carbon stocks in a compound disturbance environment, with special attention on black carbon (charcoal), a potential source of long-term carbon sequestration. We report on a well-studied compound disturbance event (wind, logging, and severe fire) in a Colorado, USA subalpine forest that was extensively surveyed for impacts on carbon, black carbon, and regeneration. All major pools were considered, including organic and mineral soil (10 cm depth), and contrasted with neighboring undisturbed forests as a reference. The disturbances had an additive effect on carbon loss, with increasing numbers of disturbances resulting in progressively decreasing carbon/black carbon stocks. This resulted from lower substrate availability and higher fire intensity. Surprisingly, there was no significant difference between reference and burned plots in terms of total black carbon. It appears that high-intensity fires do not significantly increase net black carbon in these forests (over the entire fire-return interval), with additional disturbances potentially resulting in a net loss. Disturbances, and their interactions, will have long-lasting legacies for carbon and black carbon.     

Biomass change in an Atlantic tropical moist forest: the ENSO effect in permanent sample plots over a 22-year period

There are a number of controversies surrounding both biomass estimation and carbon balance in tropical forests. Here we use long-term (from 1978 through 2000) data from five 0.5-ha permanent sample plots (PSPs) within a large tract of relatively undisturbed Atlantic moist forest in southeastern Brazil to quantify the biomass increment (M_I), and change in total stand biomass (M_stand), from mortality, recruitment, and growth data for trees 10 cm diameter at breast height (DBH). Despite receiving an average of only 1,200 mm annual precipitation, total forests biomass (334.5±11.3 Mg ha^–1) was comparable to moist tropical forests with much greater precipitation. Over this relatively long-term study, forest biomass experienced rapid declines associated with El Niño events, followed by gradual biomass accumulation. Over short time intervals that overlook extreme events, these dynamics can be misinterpreted as net biomass accumulation. However for the 22 years of this study, there was a small reduction in forest biomass, averaging –1.2 Mg ha^–1 year^–1 (±3.1). Strong climatic disturbances can severely reduce forest biomass, and if the frequency and intensity of these events increases beyond historical averages, these changing disturbance regimes have the capacity to significantly reduce forest biomass, resulting in a net source of carbon to the atmosphere.     

Interactions Among Fuel Management,Species Composition,Bark Beetles,and Climate Change and the Potential Effects on Forests of the Lake Tahoe Basin

Climate-driven increases in wildfires, drought conditions, and insect outbreaks are critical threats to forest carbon stores. In particular, bark beetles are important disturbance agents although their long-term interactions with future climate change are poorly understood. Droughts and the associated moisture deficit contribute to the onset of bark beetle outbreaks although outbreak extent and severity is dependent upon the density of host trees, wildfire, and forest management. Our objective was to estimate the effects of climate change and bark beetle outbreaks on ecosystem carbon dynamics over the next century in a western US forest. Specifically, we hypothesized that (a) bark beetle outbreaks under climate change would reduce net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) and increase uncertainty and (b) these effects could be ameliorated by fuels management. We also examined the specific tree species dynamics—competition and release—that determined NECB response to bark beetle outbreaks. Our study area was the Lake Tahoe Basin (LTB), CA and NV, USA, an area of diverse forest types encompassing steep elevation and climatic gradients and representative of mixed-conifer forests throughout the western United States. We simulated climate change, bark beetles, wildfire, and fuels management using a landscape-scale stochastic model of disturbance and succession. We simulated the period 2010–2100 using downscaled climate projections. Recurring droughts generated conditions conducive to large-scale outbreaks; the resulting large and sustained outbreaks significantly increased the probability of LTB forests becoming C sources over decadal time scales, with slower-than-anticipated landscape-scale recovery. Tree species composition was substantially altered with a reduction in functional redundancy and productivity. Results indicate heightened uncertainty due to the synergistic influences of climate change and interacting disturbances. Our results further indicate that current fuel management practices will not be effective at reducing landscape-scale outbreak mortality. Our results provide critical insights into the interaction of drivers (bark beetles, wildfire, fuel management) that increase the risk of C loss and shifting community composition if bark beetle outbreaks become more frequent.     

Pervasive canopy dynamics produce short-term stability in a tropical rain forest landscape

A fundamental property of all forest landscapes is the size frequency distribution of canopy gap disturbances. But characterizing forest structure and changes at large spatial scales has been challenging and most of our understanding is from permanent inventory plots. Here we report the first application of light detection and ranging remote sensing to measurements of canopy disturbance and regeneration in an old-growth tropical rain forest landscape. Pervasive local height changes figure prominently in the dynamics of this forest. Although most canopy gaps recruited to higher positions during 8.5 years, size frequency distributions were similar at two points in time and well-predicted by power-laws. At larger spatial scales (hundreds of ha), height increases and decreases occurred with similar frequency and changes to canopy height that were analysed using a height transition matrix suggest that the distribution of canopy height at the beginning of the study was close to the projected steady-state equilibrium under the recent disturbance regime. Taken together, these findings show how widespread local height changes can produce short-term stability in a tropical rain forest landscape.     

Natural disturbances are spatially diverse but temporally synchronized across temperate forest landscapes in Europe

Natural disturbance regimes are changing substantially in forests around the globe. However, large‐scale disturbance change is modulated by a considerable spatiotemporal variation within biomes. This variation remains incompletely understood particularly in the temperate forests of Europe, for which consistent large‐scale disturbance information is lacking. Here, our aim was to quantify the spatiotemporal patterns of forest disturbances across temperate forest landscapes in Europe using remote sensing data and determine their underlying drivers. Specifically, we tested two hypotheses: (1) Topography determines the spatial patterns of disturbance, and (2) climatic extremes synchronize natural disturbances across the biome. We used novel Landsat‐based maps of forest disturbances 1986–2016 in combination with landscape analysis to compare spatial disturbance patterns across five unmanaged forest landscapes with varying topographic complexity. Furthermore, we analyzed annual estimates of disturbances for synchronies and tested the influence of climatic extremes on temporal disturbance patterns. Spatial variation in disturbance patterns was substantial across temperate forest landscapes. With increasing topographic complexity, natural disturbance patches were smaller, more complex in shape, more dispersed, and affected a smaller portion of the landscape. Temporal disturbance patterns, however, were strongly synchronized across all landscapes, with three distinct waves of high disturbance activity between 1986 and 2016. All three waves followed years of pronounced drought and high peak wind speeds. Natural disturbances in temperate forest landscapes of Europe are thus spatially diverse but temporally synchronized. We conclude that the ecological effect of natural disturbances (i.e., whether they are homogenizing a landscape or increasing its heterogeneity) is strongly determined by the topographic template. Furthermore, as the strong biome‐wide synchronization of disturbances was closely linked to climatic extremes, large‐scale disturbance episodes are likely in Europe's temperate forests under climate changes.     

基于长时间序列Landsat影像的南方人工林干扰与恢复制图分析

基于1986年到2011年的Landsat影像,以南方人工林分布区域广东省佛冈县为例,运用Landsat生态系统自适应处理系统(LEDAPS)预处理生成标准的地面反射率数据构建Landsat时间序列堆栈(LTSS)用于Land Trendr算法监测人工林森林干扰与恢复的长时间序列变化,分析了连续24a森林干扰的年份变化、干扰量以及干扰持续的时间,验证了算法识别干扰的精度,并探讨了人工林干扰的驱动力。结果表明佛冈县的森林干扰较为剧烈,一般都在1000 hm~2。而1987、2002、2004、2005、2006、2007和2009年的干扰面积均超过2000 hm~2,其中1987、2007年两年的干扰面积达到6000 hm~2以上。相比森林干扰的变化,佛冈县的森林恢复面积随时间的变化相对平稳。通过对佛冈县森林干扰和恢复面积的趋势分析,发现20世纪80年代末到90年代森林干扰和恢复的面积基本少于2000年以后的变化面积,变化趋势比2000年以后的显得平缓;从2000年开始,森林干扰面积逐渐上升,总体面积变化趋势高于森林的恢复,但森林的恢复面积仍有所提升。其中,佛冈县的森林干扰持续1a时间的面积比例约38%,持续2a时间约28%,持续3a时间约25%,持续4a时间约7%,主要为短期急剧的干扰事件。另外,持续时间为4a以上的森林干扰和恢复的面积在佛冈县不超过100hm~2。2000年之前持续干扰和急剧干扰面积相当,变化比较平缓;到2000年之后,急剧干扰的面积远大于持续干扰,最高约达2800 hm~2,但两者都呈现波动上升的变化趋势。在选取的两个4km~2的样方中,基于影像光谱识别以及通过比对干扰资料的可视化验证方法表明算法结果与真实地表的解译信息较吻合,误差约为0.1km~2。利用长时间序列遥感影像进行森林干扰的自动化监测十分必要,导出的定性、定位与定量信息,一方面为可持续的森林经营奠定基础,另一方面为评价森林生产力与森林碳储量提供有效的数据支撑。     

基于地统计学和CFI样地的浙江省森林碳空间分布研究

基于浙江省2009年CFI固定样地数据、森林资源规划设计调查林相图,利用地统计学方法对浙江省森林碳空间分布进行了模拟分析。结果表明,CFI固定样地数据用于省域范围的森林碳汇空间特征研究是合适的。数据显示,浙江森林植被平均碳密度为22.07Mg/hm2;与四川、福建、海南等地相比,平均碳密度较低。受人类活动、自然环境等因素影响,浙江省森林碳分布主要表现为:总体上森林碳密度空间变化趋势自西向东逐渐降低,与自然空间(海拔、地势等)趋势一致。基于地统计学和CFI固定样地,对省域范围的森林资源空间分布的研究,可以为省域森林碳汇管理提供依据,为我国特别是亚热带南方集体林区利用国家CFI数据进行大区域同类研究提供借鉴。     

Sampling Plant Diversity and Rarity at Landscape Scales: Importance of Sampling Time in Species Detectability

Documenting and estimating species richness at regional or landscape scales has been a major emphasis for conservation efforts, as well as for the development and testing of evolutionary and ecological theory. Rarely, however, are sampling efforts assessed on how they affect detection and estimates of species richness and rarity. In this study, vascular plant richness was sampled in 356 quarter hectare time-unlimited survey plots in the boreal region of northeast Alberta. These surveys consisted of 15,856 observations of 499 vascular plant species (97 considered to be regionally rare) collected by 12 observers over a 2 year period. Average survey time for each quarter-hectare plot was 82 minutes, ranging from 20 to 194 minutes, with a positive relationship between total survey time and total plant richness. When survey time was limited to a 20-minute search, as in other Alberta biodiversity methods, 61 species were missed. Extending the survey time to 60 minutes, reduced the number of missed species to 20, while a 90-minute cut-off time resulted in the loss of 8 species. When surveys were separated by habitat type, 60 minutes of search effort sampled nearly 90% of total observed richness for all habitats. Relative to rare species, time-unlimited surveys had ∼65% higher rare plant detections post-20 minutes than during the first 20 minutes of the survey. Although exhaustive sampling was attempted, observer bias was noted among observers when a subsample of plots was re-surveyed by different observers. Our findings suggest that sampling time, combined with sample size and observer effects, should be considered in landscape-scale plant biodiversity surveys.     

Improving species occupancy estimation when sampling violates the closure assumption

Site occupancy models that account for imperfect detection of species are increasingly utilized in ecological research and wildlife monitoring. Occupancy models require replicate surveys to estimate detection probability over a time period where the occupancy status at sampled sites is assumed closed. Unlike mark–recapture models, few studies have examined how violations of closure can bias occupancy estimates. Our study design allowed us to differentiate among two processes that violate the closure assumption during a sampling season: 1) repeated destructive sampling events that result in either short‐ or long‐term site avoidance by the target species and 2) sampling occurring over a time period during which non‐random movements of the target species result in variable occupancy status. We used dynamic occupancy models to quantify the potential bias in occupancy estimation associated with these processes for a terrestrial salamander system. Our results provide strong evidence of a systematic decrease in salamander occupancy within a field season. Chronic disturbance due to repeated searches of natural cover objects accelerated natural declines in species occurrence on the forest surface as summer progressed. We also observed a strong but temporary disturbance effect on salamander detection probability associated with repeated sampling within a 24‐h. period. We generalized our findings by conducting a simulation to evaluate how violations of closure can bias occupancy estimates when local extinction occurs within a sampling season. Our simulation study revealed general sensitivity of estimates from single‐season occupancy models to violations of closure, with the strength and direction of bias varying between scenarios. Bias was minimal when extinction proba bility or the number of sample occasions was relatively low. Our research highlights the importance of addressing closure in occupancy studies and we provide multiple solutions, using both design‐ and model‐based frameworks, for minimizing bias associated with non‐random changes in occupancy and repeated sampling disturbances.     

兴安落叶松林火干扰后土壤有机碳含量变化

在大兴安岭兴安落叶松林区,选择不同恢复年限各种火烧强度(重度、中度、轻度)的火烧迹地进行调查并采集土壤样品,对火后有机层和矿质层有机碳含量变化进行研究,以期为进一步开展森林火灾对区域碳平衡影响的定量评估提供科学依据。研究结果表明:火干扰对土壤有机碳含量变化的影响包括火烧即时影响和火后生境条件变化带来的间接影响。火干扰样地有机层的积累与转化主要是通过火后林冠郁闭度的变化影响的,其有机碳总储量低于对照样地。对于矿质层土壤,重度和中度火干扰后,如果样地发生植被序列演替,即阔叶林植被入侵,样地郁闭度增加迅速,凋落物积累量增大,土壤有机碳含量将随着过火年限的增加而增加;如果样地发生自我更新,样地郁闭度增加缓慢,凋落物分解量大于积累量,土壤有机碳含量将会在一定时间内随着过火年限的增加而减少;但是,无论样地发生植被序列演替还是自我更新,土壤有机碳含量短时间内均无法恢复到火前水平。轻度火干扰后,土壤有机碳含量短期内先增加,随着植被更新情况的发展最终趋于平衡。     

Emulating Natural Disturbances for Declining Late-Successional Species: A Case Study of the Consequences for Cerulean Warblers (Setophaga cerulea)

Forest cover in the eastern United States has increased over the past century and while some late-successional species have benefited from this process as expected, others have experienced population declines. These declines may be in part related to contemporary reductions in small-scale forest interior disturbances such as fire, windthrow, and treefalls. To mitigate the negative impacts of disturbance alteration and suppression on some late-successional species, strategies that emulate natural disturbance regimes are often advocated, but large-scale evaluations of these practices are rare. Here, we assessed the consequences of experimental disturbance (using partial timber harvest) on a severely declining late-successional species, the cerulean warbler (Setophaga cerulea), across the core of its breeding range in the Appalachian Mountains. We measured numerical (density), physiological (body condition), and demographic (age structure and reproduction) responses to three levels of disturbance and explored the potential impacts of disturbance on source-sink dynamics. Breeding densities of warblers increased one to four years after all canopy disturbances (vs. controls) and males occupying territories on treatment plots were in better condition than those on control plots. However, these beneficial effects of disturbance did not correspond to improvements in reproduction; nest success was lower on all treatment plots than on control plots in the southern region and marginally lower on light disturbance plots in the northern region. Our data suggest that only habitats in the southern region acted as sources, and interior disturbances in this region have the potential to create ecological traps at a local scale, but sources when viewed at broader scales. Thus, cerulean warblers would likely benefit from management that strikes a landscape-level balance between emulating natural disturbances in order to attract individuals into areas where current structure is inappropriate, and limiting anthropogenic disturbance in forests that already possess appropriate structural attributes in order to maintain maximum productivity.     

Impacts of land-use history on the diversity of a riparian forest landscape in warm-temperate Kyushu,southern Japan

We examined the impacts of land-use history on the species composition and diversity of a warm-temperate riparian forest landscape in Kyushu, southern Japan, focusing on the relationship between evergreen oaks and deciduous trees in natural and seminatural forests. The species composition of 59 plots was classified into four types (A to D). Type A, which showed a significant bias towards sites not subject to nonforest land use since 1947, had high species diversity consisting of (1) many lucidophyllous components of the region, including the rare indigenous oak Quercus hondae, and (2) summergreen tree species of varying dominance and number representing unique or locally rare elements of the riparian landscape in this warm-temperate region. Type B was dominated by a common species of oak, Q. glauca, and displayed less clear distribution bias with land-use history. In contrast to types A and B, types C and D, which were characterized by high dominance of deciduous trees, had negative bias away from sites that had been under forest land use in 1947. Presumably, intensive anthropogenic disturbances associated with nonforest land uses had expanded the habitats for deciduous trees. This phenomenon was represented by the establishment of forests (type D) dominated by Ulmus davidiana var. japonica (UDJ) after it had been released from the suppression of evergreen forest trees during a period of nonforest land use that prevents the successful recovery of evergreen trees. From these results we conclude that the impacts of land-use history on the diversity of warm-temperate riparian forest landscape are multiphased: a period of nonforest land use has a strong negative impact on lucidophyllous forest trees represented by the rare indigenous oak Q. hondae; release from the suppressive effects of the lucidophyllous species then encourages establishment of locally rare deciduous tree flora represented by UDJ, which continue to persist for decades after abandonment of nonforest land use.     

Understanding and predicting frost‐induced tropical tree mortality patterns

Extreme climatic and weather events are increasing in frequency and intensity across the world causing episodes of widespread tree mortality in many forested ecosystems. However, we have a limited understanding about which local factors influence tree mortality patterns, restricting our ability to predict tree mortality, especially within topographically complex tropical landscapes with a matrix of mature and secondary forests. We investigated the effects of two major local factors, topography and forest successional type, on climate‐induced tropical tree mortality patterns using an observational and modeling approach. The northernmost Neotropical dry forest endured an unprecedented episode of frost‐induced tree mortality after the historic February 2011 cold wave hit northwestern Mexico. In a moderately hilly landscape covering mature and secondary tropical dry forests, we surveyed 454 sites for the presence or absence of frost‐induced tree mortality. In addition, across forty‐eight 1 ha plots equally split into the two forest types, we examined 6,981 woody plants to estimate a frost‐disturbance severity metric using the density of frost‐killed trees. Elevation is the main factor modulating frost effects regardless of forest type. Higher occurrence probabilities of frost‐induced tree mortality at lowland forests can be explained by the strong influence of elevation on temperature distribution since heavier cold air masses move downhill during advective frosts. Holding elevation constant, the probability of frost‐induced tree mortality in mature forests was twice that of secondary forests but severity showed the opposite pattern, suggesting a cautious use of occurrence probabilities of tree mortality to infer severity of climate‐driven disturbances. Extreme frost events, in addition to altering forest successional pathways and ecosystem services, likely maintain and could ultimately shift latitudinal and altitudinal range margins of Neotropical dry forests.     

Strategies to estimate national forest carbon stocks from inventory data: the 1990 New Zealand baseline

An estimate of live tree carbon stored in New Zealand forests at 1990 was made to partially satisfy New Zealand's international obligations under the Framework Convention for Climate Change. A national database was compiled of 4956 forest inventory plots measured as recently as possible to 1990. Plot biomass estimates were obtained by applying species allometric relationships derived from harvested stands. Forest areas and classes were taken from a 1987 national map of vegetation cover. Regularly spaced grids, based on an initial 1 km × 1 km grid, were overlaid on the total forest area and plots were tested for bias against site characteristics at the grid points. As grid point density and sample size increased, bias was minimal in regional sampling intensity and in total annual precipitation. Differences in mean elevation and annual temperature remained stable as grid point density increased, and showed little correlation with stem biomass. This sampling method gave a measure of precision not available from previous estimates. An efficient sample size to estimate the mean within a 5% level of precision (at 95% probability) required a sample of 574 plots selected from a 4‐km grid. This strategy generated a mean estimate for the 1990 New Zealand forest carbon biomass of 179.3 ± 4.9 Mg ha^?1 (± SE), totalling 919.1 ± 25.1 Mt for the 5.1 million ha mapped forest area. The mean was 6–10% lower than previous estimates, and was within the range reported for other countries. Within forest classes, mean carbon biomass ranged from 105 Mg ha^?1 in pure podocarp forest to 215 Mg ha^?1 in mixed lowland podocarp–broadleaved–beech forest. Of the major taxa groups throughout the forest estate, beech (Nothofagus) contributed 60% of the national forest carbon biomass reservoir, 26.7% was in other hardwoods, 13.2% in conifers, and 0.1% in other taxa (e.g. tree ferns).