Pollen and climatic change

Summary There has been increasing interest shown in the literature over the possible implications of global warming on the climate, ecology and economy of the world community. Aerobiologists in Europe could play an important strategic role in monitoring and predicting ecological change and in providing useful information for climatologists. The problems of identification and co-ordination are briefly discussed.     

Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications

Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values are exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that cascade among systems, precluding accurate modeling and prediction of system response to climate change. Ten case studies from North America illustrate how changes in climate can lead to rapid, threshold-type responses within ecological communities; the case studies also highlight the role of human activities that alter the rate or direction of system response to climate change. Understanding and anticipating nonlinear dynamics are important aspects of adaptation planning since responses of biological resources to changes in the physical climate system are not necessarily proportional and sometimes, as in the case of complex ecological systems, inherently nonlinear.     

On integrating climatic change and culture change studies

In the last few decades, advances in understanding and modeling climate have paralleled the growth of an impressive log of radiocarbon dates and quantitative analyses of climatic indicators including pollen, tree rings, and lake levels. At the same time, archeological research has given us an impressive assemblage of cultural information. We also have the tools for sorting out the diverse sources of variance in our datasets. The time has come to begin to integrate these lines of scientific endeavor to produce a mutually coherent picture of at least one of the mechanisms that have affected the history of humankind, and one that undoubtedly will affect the future as well.     

Methane consumption by montane soils: implications for positive and negative feedback with climatic change

We report here three years of field observations of methane uptake, averaging 1.2 mg CH₄ m^–2 d^–1 in montane meadow soils. Surface soil moisture influenced diffusion of substrate while in deeper soil, where methane oxidation was maximum, moisture influenced both diffusion and microbial activity. Microbial oxidation of methane was maximum at an intermediate level of soil moisture, at this site at about 25% moisture by weight (50% water holding capacity). Laboratory incubations also showed inhibition below 20% moisture. These results provide in situ characterization of moisture limitation of methanotroph activity and evidence that soil drying may diminish the methane sink strength. The microbial limitation to methane consumption at low soil moisture provides a mechanism for positive feedback between methane flux and climate warming, as suggested by ice core data (Blunier et al. 1993; Chappellaz et al. 1990; Stauffer et al. 1985).     

Restoration,succession and climatic change

Two outstanding papers on restoration and succession are briefly discussed as model papers for the type of research papers Appl. Veg.Sci. should publish. The paper on restoration concentrates on the introduction of hay to a site in order to speed up the introduction of target species. The paper on succession discusses the importance of plant colonization ‘windows’ opened by extreme weather events for succession and for offering optimum periods for intervention in restoration practice. Some remarks are also made on the electronic availability of ecology papers.     

Vegetation dynamics--simulating responses to climatic change

A modelling approach to simulating vegetation dynamics is described, incorporating critical processes of carbon sequestration, growth, mortality and distribution. The model has been developed to investigate the responses of vegetation to environmental change, at time scales from days to centuries and from the local to the global scale. The model is outlined and subsequent tests, against independent data sources, are relatively successful, from the small scale to the global scale. Tests against eddy covariance observations of carbon exchange by vegetation indicated significant differences between measured and simulated net ecosystem production (NEP). NEP is the net of large fluxes due to gross primary production and respiration, which are not directly measured and so there is some uncertainty in explaining differences between observations and simulations. In addition it was noted that closer agreement of fluxes was achieved for natural, or long-lived managed vegetation than for recently managed vegetation. The discrepancies appear to be most closely related to respiratory carbon losses from the soil, but this area needs further exploration. The differences do not scale up to the global scale, where simulated and measured global net biome production were similar, indicating that fluxes measured at the managed observed sites are not typical globally. The model (the Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, SDGVM) has been applied to contemporary vegetation dynamics and indicates a significant CO2 fertilisation effect on the sequestration of atmospheric CO2. The terrestrial carbon sink for the 20th century is simulated to be widespread between latitudes 40 degrees S and 65 degrees N, but is greatest between 10 degrees S and 6 degrees N, excluding the effects of human deforestation. The mean maximum sink capacity over the 20th century is small, at 25 gC m(-2) year(-1), or approximately 1% of gross primary production. Simulations of vegetation dynamics under a scenario of future global warming indicate a gradual decline in the terrestrial carbon sink, with the capacity to absorb human emissions of CO2 being reduced from 20% in 2000 to approximately 2% between 2075 and 2100. The responses of carbon sequestration and vegetation structure and distribution to stabilisation of climate and CO2 may extend for up to 50 years after stabilisation has occurred.     

Responses of tree populations to climatic change

The influence of climate on the population dynamics of trees must be inferred from indirect sources of information because the long lifespans of trees preclude direct observation of population growth and decline. Important insights about these processes come from 1) observations of the life histories and ecologies of trees in contemporary forests, 2) evidence of recent treeline movements in remote areas unaffected by human disturbance, and 3) results of experiments performed on forest simulation models. Each line of evidence indicates that tree population responses are influenced by many factors: including lifespans, seed productivity and dispersibility, phenotypic plasticity, genetic variability, competition, and disturbance. Some population characteristics should allow rapid changes in population sizes, while others should confer stability in times of environmental fluctuation. Interactions between controlling factors should result in a wide array of possible responses to climatic change. Interpretations of late-Quaternary forest dynamics must be based on an understanding of the biological processes involved in population responses to environmental variations.     

植物物候对气候变化的响应

植物物候的变化可以直观地反映某些气候变化,尤其是气候变暖.植物生长节律的变化引起植物与环境关系的改变.生态系统的物质循环（如水和碳的循环）等过程将随物候而改变.不同种类植物物候对气候变化的响应的差异,会使植物间和动植物间的竞争与依赖关系也发生深刻的变化.目前欧洲、美洲、亚洲等许多地区均有关于春季植物物候提前,秋季物候推迟,使植物的生长季延长,从而提示气候变暖的趋势.植物物候的模拟模型构成生态系统生产力模型的重要部分.     

Regeneration of planted conifers across climatic moisture gradients on the Canadian prairies: implications for distribution and climate change

The influence of dry climates on white spruce ( Picea glauca (Moench) Voss)) regeneration was examined by conducting surveys of seedlings and small trees that had regenerated naturally at 100 farm shelterbelts and plantations in southern Saskatchewan, Canada. The sites surveyed were located along a climate moisture gradient extending from the relatively moist boreal forest, across the aspen parkland, to the semi-arid prairie grasslands. Natural regeneration was greatest at sites in the boreal forest and northern aspen parkland, decreased in the southern aspen parkland, and was negligible in the grassland zone. Furthermore, the few seedlings found in the drier zones were usually in poor condition. Similar results were obtained for the introduced Colorado spruce ( Picea pungens Engelm.) and Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris L.). It is concluded that the present climate of the southern parkland and grassland is too dry to permit natural regeneration of white spruce and other conifers. If increases in atmospheric CO₂ levels lead to a drier future climate in the southern boreal forest of western Canada, the ability of conifers to regenerate naturally may be significantly reduced.     

Plant functional types and climatic change: Introduction

Abstract. Plant functional types are a necessary device for reducing the complex and often uncharted characteristics of species diversity in function and structure when attempting to project the nature and function of species assemblages into future environments. A workshop was held to review the current methods commonly used for defining plant functional types, either globally or for particular biomes, and to compare them with the field experiences of specialists for specific biomes of the world. The methods fall into either an objective and inductive approach or a subjective and deductive approach. When the different methods were tested, it was generally found that the classification for one site or environment was not wholly applicable to a different site or environment. However, the degree of change which is necessary for adjustment between environments may not prove to be a major limitation in the use of functional types.     

Tracking of climatic niche boundaries under recent climate change

1.?Global climate has changed significantly during the past 30?years and especially in northern temperate regions which have experienced poleward shifts in temperature regimes. While there is evidence that some species have responded by moving their distributions to higher latitudes, the efficiency of this response in tracking species' climatic niche boundaries over time has yet to be addressed. 2.?Here, we provide a continental assessment of the temporal structure of species responses to recent spatial shifts in climatic conditions. We examined geographic associations with minimum winter temperature for 59 species of winter avifauna at 476 Christmas Bird Count circles in North America from 1975 to 2009 under three sampling schemes that account for spatial and temporal sampling effects. 3.?Minimum winter temperature associated with species occurrences showed an overall increase with a weakening trend after 1998. Species displayed highly variable responses that, on average and across sampling schemes, contained a strong lag effect that weakened in strength over time. In general, the conservation of minimum winter temperature was relevant when all species were considered together but only after an initial lag period (c. 35?years) was overcome. The delayed niche tracking observed at the combined species level was likely supported by the post1998 lull in the warming trend. 4.?There are limited geographic and ecological explanations for the observed variability, suggesting that the efficiency of species' responses under climate change is likely to be highly idiosyncratic and difficult to predict. This outcome is likely to be even more pronounced and time lags more persistent for less vagile taxa, particularly during the periods of consistent or accelerating warming. Current modelling efforts and conservation strategies need to better appreciate the variation, strength and duration of lag effects and their association with climatic variability. Conservation strategies in particular will benefit through identifying and maintaining dispersal corridors that accommodate diverging dispersal strategies and timetables.     

Rapid evolutionary change in a secondary sexual character linked to climatic change

The ability of organisms to respond evolutionarily to rapid climatic change is poorly known. Secondary sexual characters show the potential for rapid evolutionary change, as evidenced by strong divergence among species and high evolvability. Here we show that the length of the outermost tail feathers of males of the socially monogamous barn swallow Hirundo rustica, feathers that provide a mating advantage to males, has increased by more than 1 standard deviation during the period from 1984 to 2003. Barn swallows from the Danish population studied here migrate through the Iberian Peninsula to South Africa in fall, and return along the same route in spring. Environmental conditions on the spring staging grounds in Algeria, as indexed by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, predicted tail length and change in tail length across generations. However, conditions in the winter quarters and at the breeding grounds did not predict change in tail length. Environmental conditions in Algeria in spring showed a temporal deterioration during the study period, associated with a reduction in annual survival rate of male barn swallows. Phenotypic plasticity in tail length of males, estimated as the increase in tail length from the age of 1 to 2 years, decreased during the course of the study. Estimates of directional selection differentials for male tail length with respect to mating success, breeding date, fecundity, survival and total selection showed temporal variation, with the intensity of breeding date selection, survival selection and total selection declining during the study. Response to selection as estimated from the product of heritability and total selection was very similar to the observed temporal change in tail length. These findings provide evidence of rapid micro-evolutionary change in a secondary sexual character during a very short time period, which is associated with a rapid change in environmental conditions.     

未来气候变化对中国天然橡胶种植气候适宜区的影响

全球气候变暖将严重影响中国天然橡胶种植的气候适宜区分布.根据影响中国橡胶种植的5个主导气候因子,即最冷月平均温度、极端最低温度平均值、月平均温度≥18 ℃月份、年平均气温和年平均降水量,基于最大熵MaxEnt模型,利用1981—2010年全国气候数据和RCP4.5情景的气候预估,分析了1981—2010、2041—2060、2061—2080年中国天然橡胶种植的气候适宜区变化.结果表明： 随着未来气候变化,2041—2060和2061—2080年中国天然橡胶的种植气候适宜区范围总体呈北扩趋势,对橡胶树北移有利. 2041—2060、2061—2080年中国天然橡胶气候适宜区总面积较1981—2010年呈增长趋势,高适宜区和中适宜区的面积均有增加趋势,而低适宜区面积呈减少趋势.局部区域气候适宜性发生明显变化：云南的橡胶主产区的适宜区总面积减少,其中,云南省的景洪、勐腊等地将由现在的高适宜区转变为中适宜区,海南岛及广东雷州半岛的橡胶种植高适宜区面积明显增加,在台湾岛出现了新的橡胶种植低适宜区等.     

Evidence of past climatic change in the Namib Desert

A preliminary survey of some areas of the Central and Northern Namib Desert was undertaken in order to identify geomorphic and sedimentary features that could potentially provide information on past climatic change in the region. Wherever possible, samples were collected for radiocarbon dating. The visits to the Skeleton Coast area were especially revealing: practically every river valley in this tract shows a sequence of terraces and deposits that would warrant a detailed study. In all, about 120 new radiocarbon dates were obtained for the region. These have supplied a wealth of individual results and, collectively, have enabled the construction of a tentative chronological sequence of the changes in climate for the past 40,000 yr. Three periods of increased aridity in the hinterland, but with decreasing intensity are postulated: during the Last Glacial Maximum, the early Holocene, and between A.D. 1200 and A.D. 1600. The Inter-Pleniglacial up to 23,000 yr B.P., the Late Glacial, and the period between about 4000 yr B.P and 1200 yr B.P., on the other hand, were more humid than today, also with decreasing intensity. Other indicators of past climate were also identified, but since they lie beyond the range of radiocarbon dating, they cannot as yet be placed in a chronological context. Of significance is the fact that convincing evidence was obtained for climatic change within the last millennium and, especially, the rainfall is found to have been increasing since the 16th century.     

Potential impacts of climatic change on European breeding birds

Background

Climatic change is expected to lead to changes in species'' geographical ranges. Adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation require quantitative estimates of the magnitude, direction and rates of these potential changes. Such estimates are of greatest value when they are made for large ensembles of species and for extensive (sub-continental or continental) regions.

Methodology/Principal Findings

For six climate scenarios for 2070–99 changes have been estimated for 431 European breeding bird species using models relating species'' distributions in Europe to climate. Mean range centroid potentially shifted 258–882 km in a direction between 341° (NNW) and 45° (NE), depending upon the climate scenario considered. Potential future range extent averaged 72–89% of the present range, and overlapped the present range by an average of 31–53% of the extent of the present range. Even if potential range changes were realised, the average number of species breeding per 50×50 km grid square would decrease by 6·8–23·2%. Many species endemic or near-endemic to Europe have little or no overlap between their present and potential future ranges; such species face an enhanced extinction risk as a consequence of climatic change.

Conclusions/Significance

Although many human activities exert pressures upon wildlife, the magnitude of the potential impacts estimated for European breeding birds emphasises the importance of climatic change. The development of adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation in the face of climatic change is an urgent need; such strategies must take into account quantitative evidence of potential climatic change impacts such as is presented here.