Effect of epistasis and linkage on fixation probability in three-locus models: an ancestral recombination-selection graph approach

We study the probability of ultimate fixation of a single new mutant arising in an individual chosen at random at a locus linked to two other loci carrying previously arisen mutations. This is done using the Ancestral Recombination-Selection Graph (ARSG) in a finite population in the limit of a large population size, which is also known as the Ancestral Influence Graph (AIG). An analytical expansion of the fixation probability with respect to population-scaled recombination rates and selection intensities is obtained. The coefficients of the expansion are expressed in terms of the initial state of the population and the epistatic interactions among the selected loci. Under the assumption of weak selection at tightly linked loci, the sign of the leading term, which depends on the signs of epistasis and initial linkage disequilibrium, determines whether an increase in recombination rates increases the chance of ultimate fixation of the new mutant. If mutants are advantageous, this is the case when epistasis is positive or null and the initial linkage disequilibrium is negative, which is an expected state in a finite population under directional selection. Moreover, this is also the case for a neutral mutant modifier coding for higher recombination rates if the same conditions hold at the selected loci. Under the same conditions, deleterious mutants are disfavored for ultimate fixation and neutral modifiers for higher recombination rates still favored. The recombination rates between the modifier locus and the selected loci do not come into play in the leading terms of the approximation for the fixation probability, but they do in higher-order terms.     

Extending the coalescent to multilocus systems: the case of balancing selection

Natural populations are structured spatially into local populations and genetically into diverse 'genetic backgrounds' defined by different combinations of selected alleles. If selection maintains genetic backgrounds at constant frequency then neutral diversity is enhanced. By contrast, if background frequencies fluctuate then diversity is reduced. Provided that the population size of each background is large enough, these effects can be described by the structured coalescent process. Almost all the extant results based on the coalescent deal with a single selected locus. Yet we know that very large numbers of genes are under selection and that any substantial effects are likely to be due to the cumulative effects of many loci. Here, we set up a general framework for the extension of the coalescent to multilocus scenarios and we use it to study the simplest model, where strong balancing selection acting on a set of n loci maintains 2n backgrounds at constant frequencies and at linkage equilibrium. Analytical results show that the expected linked neutral diversity increases exponentially with the number of selected loci and can become extremely large. However, simulation results reveal that the structured coalescent approach breaks down when the number of backgrounds approaches the population size, because of stochastic fluctuations in background frequencies. A new method is needed to extend the structured coalescent to cases with large numbers of backgrounds.     

Expected Linkage Disequilibrium for a Neutral Locus Linked to a Chromosomal Arrangement

The expected value of the squared linkage disequilibrium is derived for a neutral locus associated with a chromosomal arrangement that is maintained in the population by strong balancing selection. For a given value of recombination, the expected squared linkage disequilibrium is shown to decrease as the intensity of selection maintaining the arrangement increases. The transient behavior of the expected square linkage disequilibrium is also derived. This theory applies to loci that are closely linked to inversions in Drosophila species and to loci closely linked to the differential segments of the translocation complexes in ring-forming species of Oenothera. In both cases the strong linkage disequilibria that have been observed in natural populations can be explained by random drift.     

The Effect of a Selected Locus on Linked Neutral Loci

The effects produced on linked neutral loci as a selected locus evolves towards its equilibrium value are considered. Significant effects on the neutral loci arise if the recombination fraction between the neutral and selected loci is smaller than the order of magnitude of the selective differences at the selected locus. The effect on gene frequencies at the neutral loci, that is, the hitchhiking effect, is determined, as well as the linkage disequilibrium generated by this hitchhiking effect. One of the more important findings is that significant disequilibrium can be generated between two neutral loci by the evolution of a linked selected locus. Consideration is given to the problem of determining how the effect of selection operating in natural populations can be detected, the question of the establishment of inversions in populations, and also to the nonequilibrium properties of populations.     

The effect of hitch-hiking on genes linked to a balanced polymorphism in a subdivided population

The effect of multi-allelic balancing selection on nucleotide diversity at linked neutral sites was investigated by simulations of subdivided populations. The motivation is to understand the behaviour of self-recognition systems such as the MHC and plant self-incompatibility. For neutral sites, two types of subdivision are present: (1) into demes (connected by migration), and (2) into classes defined by different functional alleles at the selected locus (connected by recombination). Previous theoretical studies of each type of subdivision separately have shown that each increases diversity, and decreases the relative frequencies of low-frequency variants, at neutral sites or loci. We show here that the two types of subdivision act non-additively when sampling is at the whole population level, and that subdivision produces some non-intuitive results. For instance, in highly subdivided populations, genetic diversity at neutral sites may decrease with tighter linkage to a selected locus or site. Another conclusion is that, if there is population subdivision, balancing selection leads to decreased expected FST values for neutral sites linked to the selected locus. Finally, we show that the ability to detect balancing selection by its effects on linked variation, using tests such as Tajima's D, is reduced when genes in a subdivided population are sampled from the total population, rather than within demes.     

Use of restriction fragment length polymorphisms for genetic counseling: Population genetic considerations

Two-locus population genetic models are analyzed to evaluate the utility of restriction fragment length polymorphisms for purposes of genetic counseling. It is shown that the linkage disequilibrium between a neutral marker and a tightly linked overdominant mutant will increase rapidly as the mutant moves to its polymorphic equilibrium. The linkage disequilibrium decays for deleterious recessive mutants. Two measures involving the linkage disequilibrium are investigated to determine how much information the transmission of the neutral marker provides about the transmission of the selected gene. In certain kinds of matings, where the parental two-locus genotypes and linkage phases are known, it is possible to determine whether or not a progeny is homozygous for the selected gene on the basis of the fetal genotype at the marker locus. A quantity of primary interest is the fraction of matings between individuals heterozygous for the selected gene in which exact diagnosis can be made in this way. The expected proportion of such matings, taken over all two-locus matings involving heterozygotes at the selected locus, is calculated as a function of the gene frequencies at the two loci and the linkage disequilibrium between them. This expected value is maximized when the linkage disequilibrium is at its maximum in absolute value. Fewer than half of all matings are informative if the linkage disequilibrium is small in magnitude or if the gene frequencies at the two loci are quite different. Consideration is also given to various conditional measures of association that may be useful when the parental two-locus genotypes are unknown. The results suggest that the utility of tightly linked neutral marker genes in predicting the transmission of a selected gene is generally less when selection acts against a recessive gene than for overdominant selection.     

The effect of linkage and population size on inbreeding depression due to mutational load.

Using a stochastic model of a finite population in which there is mutation to partially recessive detrimental alleles at many loci, we study the effects of population size and linkage between the loci on the population mean fitness and inbreeding depression values. Although linkage between the selected loci decreases the amount of inbreeding depression, neither population size nor recombination rate have strong effects on these quantities, unless extremely small values are assumed. We also investigate how partial linkage between the loci that determine fitness affects the invasion of populations by alleles at a modifier locus that controls the selfing rate. In most of the cases studied, the direction of selection on modifiers was consistent with that found in our previous deterministic calculations. However, there was some evidence that linkage between the modifier locus and the selected loci makes outcrossing less likely to evolve; more losses of alleles promoting outcrossing occurred in runs with linkage than in runs with free recombination. We also studied the fate of neutral alleles introduced into populations carrying detrimental mutations. The times to loss of neutral alleles introduced at low frequency were shorter than those predicted for alleles in the absence of selected loci, taking into account the reduction of the effective population size due to inbreeding. Previous studies have been confined to outbreeding populations, and to alleles at frequencies close to one-half, and have found an effect in the opposite direction. It therefore appears that associations between neutral and selected loci may produce effects that differ according to the initial frequencies of the neutral alleles.     

The dynamics of interlocus associations in the three-locus hitchhiking model

The hitchhiking effects of a selected locus upon the dynamics of the pairwise association,D _nn between two neutral loci is examined analytically for the special case where at least one of the neutral loci is in linkage equilibrium with the selected locus. The results apply approximately whenever the product of the pairwise associations between the selected locus and each neutral locus is negligible with respect to the three-way linkage disequilibrium. It is shown that precisely four broad classes of trajectories are possible, whether the selected locus is between (nsn) or to one side (snn) of the neutral loci, and whatever the mode of selection operating.D _nn may: (1) decay rapidly to zero, at a rate faster in each generation than that expected for two isolated neutral loci; (2) monotonically decay to zero at a rate which is slower in every generation than under the usual neutral regime; (3) increase initially and/or in intermediate periods before eventually slowly decaying to zero; or (4) exhibit type 1 behavior in the first segment of the trajectory and either type 2 or 3 behavior in the subsequent generations, with the transition marked by a change in sign. The nature of a given trajectory is largely determined by the direction of gene frequency change at the selected locus, and the initial signs of bothD _nn and the three-way linkage disequilibrium.The single most important consequence of these results is that there is no simple relation between the amount of pairwise association between two neutral markers and the recombination fraction between them. Several factors influencing the magnitude of the hitchhiking effect are also examined. It is shown that, all else being equal, the greater the three-way linkage disequilibrium, the greater the departure ofD _nn from the expected neutral dynamic. Increased recombination among the loci reduces the hitchhiking effect onD _nn . The dependence of the behavior upon the exact position of the selected locus is also determined both within and betweennsn andsnn chromosomal systems. An interesting discovery is that given equivalentnsn andsnn systems, with each having the same recombination between their two neutral loci,D _nn will deviate more from the standard neutral dynamic in thesnn system if its selected locus is sufficiently tightly linked to the neutral loci.     

Sojourn times and substitution rate at overdominant and linked neutral loci

The sojourn times until fixation of an overdominant allele were investigated based on the diffusion equation. Furthermore, the rate of accumulation of mutations, or the substitution rate, was predicted from the mean extinction time of a common overdominant allele. The substitution rate calculated theoretically agreed well with that determined by computer simulation. Overdominant selection enhances the polymorphism at linked loci, while its effect on the sojourn times and the substitution rate at linked loci has not been studied yet. To solve these problems, a model that assumed two linked loci, each with infinite alleles, was examined by computer simulation. A decrease in the recombination rate between two loci markedly changed the distribution of sojourn times of a neutral allele. Although overdominant selection obviously increased the sojourn times and the polymorphism at a linked locus, the rate of nucleotide substitution at the neutral locus was not influenced significantly even if complete linkage was assumed. These results suggest that, in regions containing overdominant genes, linked neutral loci will exhibit elevated levels of polymorphism, but their rate of molecular evolution remains that predicted by neutral theory.     

The consequences of gene flow for local adaptation and differentiation: a two-locus two-deme model

We consider a population subdivided into two demes connected by migration in which selection acts in opposite direction. We explore the effects of recombination and migration on the maintenance of multilocus polymorphism, on local adaptation, and on differentiation by employing a deterministic model with genic selection on two linked diallelic loci (i.e., no dominance or epistasis). For the following cases, we characterize explicitly the possible equilibrium configurations: weak, strong, highly asymmetric, and super-symmetric migration, no or weak recombination, and independent or strongly recombining loci. For independent loci (linkage equilibrium) and for completely linked loci, we derive the possible bifurcation patterns as functions of the total migration rate, assuming all other parameters are fixed but arbitrary. For these and other cases, we determine analytically the maximum migration rate below which a stable fully polymorphic equilibrium exists. In this case, differentiation and local adaptation are maintained. Their degree is quantified by a new multilocus version of $F_\mathrm{ST}$ and by the migration load, respectively. In addition, we investigate the invasion conditions of locally beneficial mutants and show that linkage to a locus that is already in migration-selection balance facilitates invasion. Hence, loci of much smaller effect can invade than predicted by one-locus theory if linkage is sufficiently tight. We study how this minimum amount of linkage admitting invasion depends on the migration pattern. This suggests the emergence of clusters of locally beneficial mutations, which may form ‘genomic islands of divergence’. Finally, the influence of linkage and two-way migration on the effective migration rate at a linked neutral locus is explored. Numerical work complements our analytical results.     

The effect on neutral gene flow of selection at a linked locus

The effect on gene flow at a neutral locus of a selective cline at a linked locus is investigated. A diffusion approximation for a two-locus island model is derived in which only one locus is subject to selection. The moments of the stationary distribution are obtained and compared to the corresponding moments from a one-locus, neutral island model. This comparison yields an effective migration rate. The effective migration rate is always less than the actual migration rate, but this effect is seen to be small for weak selection and loose linkage in the case of adult migration. The importance of selection at linked loci to the question of genetic differentiation in a subdivided population is discussed.     

Hitchhiking and associative overdominance at a microsatellite locus

The possible effects of a selected locus on a closely linked microsatellite locus are discussed and analyzed in terms of coalescent theory and models of the mutation process. Background selection caused by recurrent deleterious mutations will reduce the variance of allele size at a microsatellite locus. The occasional substitution of advantageous alleles (genetic hitchhiking) will also reduce the variance, but a high mutation rate at a microsatellite locus can restore the variance relatively rapidly. Overdominance at the selected locus will increase the variance at the microsatellite locus and create partitioning of the variation in allele size among gametes carrying one or the other of the overdominant alleles. These results suggest that neutral microsatellite loci can provide indicators of selective processes at closely linked loci.      

Selection on X-Linked Genes during Speciation in the Drosophila Athabasca Complex

We present the results of a restriction site survey of variation at five loci in Drosophila athabasca, complimenting a previous study of the period locus. There is considerably greater differentiation between the three semispecies of D. athabasca at the period locus and two other X-linked genes (no-on-transient-A and E74A) than at three autosomal genes (Xdh, Adh and RC98). Using a modification of the HKA test, which uses fixed differences between the semispecies and a test based on differences in Fst among loci, we show that the greater differentiation of the X-linked loci compared with the autosomal loci is inconsistent with a neutral model of molecular evolution. We explore several evolutionary scenarios by computer simulation, including differential migration of X and autosomal genes, very low levels of migration among the semispecies, selective sweeps, and background selection, and conclude that X-linked selective sweeps in at least two of the semispecies are the best explanation for the data. This evidence that natural selection acted on the X-chromosome suggests that another X-linked trait, mating song differences among the semispecies, may have been the target of selection.     

The ``hitchhiking Effect'''' Revisited

The number of selectively neutral polymorphic sites in a random sample of genes can be affected by ancestral selectively favored substitutions at linked loci. The degree to which this happens depends on when in the history of the sample the selected substitutions happen, the strength of selection and the amount of crossing over between the sampled locus and the loci at which the selected substitutions occur. This phenomenon is commonly called hitchhiking. Using the coalescent process for a random sample of genes from a selectively neutral locus that is linked to a locus at which selection is taking place, a stochastic, finite population model is developed that describes the steady state effect of hitchhiking on the distribution of the number of selectively neutral polymorphic sites in a random sample. A prediction of the model is that, in regions of low crossing over, strongly selected substitutions in the history of the sample can substantially reduce the number of polymorphic sites in a random sample of genes from that expected under a neutral model.     

Variation after a selective sweep in a subdivided population

The effect of genetic hitchhiking on neutral variation is analyzed in subdivided populations with differentiated demes. After fixation of a favorable mutation, the consequences on particular subpopulations can be radically different. In the subpopulation where the mutation first appeared by mutation, variation at linked neutral loci is expected to be reduced, as predicted by the classical theory. However, the effect in the other subpopulations, where the mutation is introduced by migration, can be the opposite. This effect depends on the level of genetic differentiation of the subpopulations, the selective advantage of the mutation, the recombination frequency, and the population size, as stated by analytical derivations and computer simulations. The characteristic outcomes of the effect are three. First, the genomic region of reduced variation around the selected locus is smaller than that predicted in a panmictic population. Second, for more distant neutral loci, the amount of variation increases over the level they had before the hitchhiking event. Third, for these loci, the spectrum of gene frequencies is dominated by an excess of alleles at intermediate frequencies when compared with the neutral theory. At these loci, hitchhiking works like a system that takes variation from the between-subpopulation component and introduces it into the subpopulations. The mechanism can also operate in other systems in which the genetic variation is distributed in clusters with limited exchange of variation, such as chromosome arrangements or genomic regions closely linked to targets of balancing selection.     

A multilocus-multiallele analysis of frequency-dependent selection induced by intraspecific competition

The study of the mechanisms that maintain genetic variation has a long history in population genetics. We analyze a multilocus-multiallele model of frequency- and density-dependent selection in a large randomly mating population. The number of loci and the number of alleles per locus are arbitrary. The n loci are assumed to contribute additively to a quantitative character under stabilizing or directional selection as well as under frequency-dependent selection caused by intraspecific competition. We assume the strength of stabilizing selection to be weak, whereas the strength of frequency dependence may be arbitrary. Density-dependence is induced by population regulation. Our main result is a characterization of the equilibrium structure and its stability properties in terms of all parameters. It turns out that no equilibrium exists with more than two alleles segregating per locus. We give necessary and sufficient conditions on the strength of frequency dependence to ensure the maintenance of multilocus polymorphism. We also give explicit formulas on the number of polymorphic loci maintained at equilibrium. These results are based on the assumption that selection is sufficiently weak compared with recombination, so that linkage equilibrium can be assumed. If additionally the population size is assumed to be constant, we prove that the dynamics of the model form a generalized gradient system. For the model in its general form we are able to derive necessary and sufficient conditions for the stability of the monomorphic equilibria. Furthermore, we briefly analyze a special symmetric two-locus two-allele model for a constant population size but allowing for linkage disequilibrium. Finally, we analyze a single diallelic locus with dominance to illustrate the complications that can occur if the assumption of additivity is relaxed.     

Linkage disequilibrium and recent selection at three immunity receptor loci in Drosophila simulans

Immune system genes in a California population sample of Drosophila simulans were shown to bear several hallmarks of the effects of past directional selection. One potential effect of directional selection is an increase in linkage disequilibrium among the polymorphic sites that are linked to the site under selection. In this study, we focus on three D. simulans immunity loci, Hmu, Sr-CI/Sr-CIII, and Tehao, for which the polymorphic sites are in nearly perfect linkage disequilibrium, an unusual finding even with respect to other immunity genes sampled from the same lines. The most likely explanation for this finding is that, at each locus, two divergent alleles have been selected to intermediate frequencies in the recent past. The extent to which the linkage disequilibrium extends to the flanks of each of the immunity genes is minimal, suggesting that the favored mutations actually occurred within the immunity genes themselves. Furthermore, the excess linkage disequilibrium found in the California population is not found in an African D. simulans population sample and may be a result of novel pathogen-mediated selection pressures encountered during establishment of non-African populations.     

Linkage disequilibrium under genetic hitchhiking in finite populations

The model of genetic hitchhiking predicts a reduction in sequence diversity at a neutral locus closely linked to a beneficial allele. In addition, it has been shown that the same process results in a specific pattern of correlations (linkage disequilibrium) between neutral polymorphisms along the chromosome at the time of fixation of the beneficial allele. During the hitchhiking event, linkage disequilibrium on either side of the beneficial allele is built up whereas it is destroyed across the selected site. We derive explicit formulas for the expectation of the covariance measure D and standardized linkage disequilibrium sigma 2D between a pair of polymorphic sites. For our analysis we use the approximation of a star-like genealogy at the selected site. The resulting expressions are approximately correct in the limit of large selection coefficients. Using simulations we show that the resulting pattern of linkage disequilibrium is quickly-i.e., in <0.1N generations-destroyed after the fixation of the beneficial allele for moderately distant neutral loci, where N is the diploid population size.     

On the effects of background selection in small populations on comparisons of molecular variation

Deleterious mutations affect genetic variation at linked neutral loci. Neutral variation can be reduced due to background selection, but in small population and with tight linkage such variation may increase due to associative overdominance. Here I report the results of computer simulations of diploid genotypes in small populations, where I look at the effect of deleterious mutations and linkage on comparisons of intra- and interspecific variation. Each chromosome consisted of 2000 loci where deleterious and neutral mutations occurred. The ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous substitution rates (Ka/Ks) either increases with tight linkage or is unaffected, depending on the strength of selection. The ratio of the numbers of segregating mutations to the number of fixed mutations decreases under the conditions leading to background selection but can increase at tight linkage. Numbers of segregating sites (Sn) are less affected than nucleotide site diversity (pi), pi reduces more than Sn at intermediate linkage, but pi increases more than Sn when linkage is tight. Similar effects as found for Sn and pi are observed for heterozygosity and variance in allele size of tandem repeat loci.