How many species are there?

How many species are there is a question receiving more attention from biologists and reasons for this are suggested. Different methods of answering this question are examined and include: counting all species; extrapolations from known faunas and regions; extrapolations from samples; methods using ecological models; censusing taxonomists' views. Most of these methods indicate that global totals of 5 to 15 million species are reasonable. The implications of much higher estimates of 30 million species or more are examined, particularly the question of where these millions of species might be found.     

Bacterial taxa–area and distance–decay relationships in marine environments

The taxa–area relationship (TAR) and the distance–decay relationship (DDR) both describe spatial turnover of taxa and are central patterns of biodiversity. Here, we compared TAR and DDR of bacterial communities across different marine realms and ecosystems at the global scale. To obtain reliable global estimates for both relationships, we quantified the poorly assessed effects of sequencing depth, rare taxa removal and number of sampling sites. Slope coefficients of bacterial TARs were within the range of those of plants and animals, whereas slope coefficients of bacterial DDR were much lower. Slope coefficients were mostly affected by removing rare taxa and by the number of sampling sites considered in the calculations. TAR and DDR slope coefficients were overestimated at sequencing depth <4000 sequences per sample. Noticeably, bacterial TAR and DDR patterns did not correlate with each other both within and across ecosystem types, suggesting that (i) TAR cannot be directly derived from DDR and (ii) TAR and DDR may be influenced by different ecological factors. Nevertheless, we found marine bacterial TAR and DDR to be steeper in ecosystems associated with high environmental heterogeneity or spatial isolation, namely marine sediments and coastal environments compared with pelagic ecosystems. Hence, our study provides information on macroecological patterns of marine bacteria, as well as methodological and conceptual insights, at a time when biodiversity surveys increasingly make use of high‐throughput sequencing technologies.     

Contribution of oribatid and mesostigmatid soil mites in ecologically based estimates of global species richness

Erwin’s method for estimating total global species richness assumes some host‐specificity among the canopy arthropods. This study examined possible host habitat specialization in two major groups of soil arthropods, the oribatid and mesostigmatid mites, by sampling beneath three tree species: Eucalyptus pilularis Smith, Eucalyptus propinqua Deane and Maiden and Allocasuarina torulosa (Aiton) L. Johnson. The sample sites were in the Lansdowne State Forest, New South Wales, Australia and the three tree species were selected on the basis of their known differential effects on soil. Sampling was conducted over three seasons, and 79 oribatid and 34 mesostigmatid species were identified from 25 196 and 3634 individuals, respectively. Tree species had little effect on mite species composition with only three oribatid species and no mesostigmatid species identified as host‐habitat specialists using a niche breadth measure. Of mite species found under E. pilularis, E. propinqua and A. torulosa trees, 2%, 1% and 0% were defined as host‐habitat specialists, respectively. In contrast, tree species had significant and consistent effects on mite community structure, which differed in relative abundance of the oribatid species, their size class distributions and species rankings. In the mesostigmatid communities, there was a difference in the ranking of the mite species among tree species. Although it was demonstrated that tree species have an impact on the soil environment, the differences between tree species were insufficient to change species composition. The low degree of host‐habitat specialization suggested that other factors were more important for determining mite species composition at a site, and soil mite host‐habitat specialization may not make a large contribution to estimates of total global species richness using methods such as those proposed by Erwin (1982) .     

Habitat degradation and trout stocking can reinforce the impact of flash floods on headwater specialist Alpine bullhead Cottus poecilopus – A case study from the Carpathian Mountains

In freshwater streams, flooding is a typical source of natural disturbance that plays a key role in the dynamics of animal populations and communities. However, habitat degradation and fish stocking might increase the severity of its impact. We tested the effects of a flash flood on the abundance of three size classes of headwater dwelling Alpine bullhead, Cottus poecilopus, in the streams of the Carpathian Mountains in the Czech Republic, that are stocked with hatchery‐reared brown trout, Salmo trutta. We showed that the overall abundance of Alpine bullhead was highest at the sites with the least degraded habitat (i.e., natural habitat) and we caught almost no Alpine bullhead at the sites with the most degraded habitat. The flash flood had a strong negative effect on the abundance of the largest individuals of Alpine bullhead. Abundance of small and medium size Alpine bullhead was negatively affected by the abundance of adult stocked brown trout before as well as after the flash flood. However, negative effect of adult brown trout abundance on abundance of large Alpine bullhead was not significant before the flash flood, and it became significant after the flash flood. This could indicate an accumulation of negative impacts of trout stocking and flash flood on this size class. Overall, our results suggest that stocking of hatchery trout and habitat degradation can reinforce the impact of flash floods on the population of Alpine bullhead in the streams of the Carpathian Mountains.     

Year‐round spatial movements and trophic ecology of Trindade Petrels (Pterodroma arminjoniana)

Trindade Petrels (Pterodroma arminjoniana) are vulnerable gadfly petrels that breed on the remote Trindade Island, located ~1100 km off the Brazilian coast. Little is known about their spatial ecology, and their trophic ecology has only been described for the breeding season. We tagged four Trindade Petrels with global location sensing loggers (GLS) from October 2013 to November 2014 and sampled the blood and feathers (innermost primary and the eighth secondary) of 14 individuals to evaluate their year‐round spatial and isotopic ecology. We examined individual distributions, habitat use and suitability, activity, and isotopic values during the breeding, migration, and non‐breeding periods. Trindade Petrels used areas in the southwest Atlantic Ocean (between 10°N and 50°S in latitude) during the breeding season. They migrated through pelagic waters of the tropical Atlantic to the northwest Atlantic, where they spent the non‐breeding season. Trindade Petrels used mostly tropical to subtropical waters in areas of intermediate to high wind speeds and low marine productivity. Individuals spent more time foraging at night than during the day. During the breeding season, birds in northerly areas had higher carbon‐13 values, and birds that used more pelagic areas foraged on prey at a higher trophic level (higher nitrogen‐15 values) than those in more southern and coastal areas. Isotopic values during the breeding, migration, and non‐breeding periods differed, possibly due to differences among individuals in their at‐sea distribution throughout the year. We confirmed the non‐breeding distribution of Trindade Petrels, which was previously known only from vessel sightings and stranded birds. Our results also suggest a strong temporal segregation in the at‐sea distribution and trophic ecology between two groups of individuals, which might indicate the existence of two separate breeding populations.     

Models for assessing local‐scale co‐abundance of animal species while accounting for differential detectability and varied responses to the environment

We developed a new modeling framework to assess how the local abundance of one species influences the local abundance of a potential competitor while explicitly accounting for differential responses to environmental conditions. Our models also incorporate imperfect detection as well as abundance estimation error for both species. As a case study, we applied the model to four pairs of mammal species in Borneo, surveyed by extensive and spatially widespread camera trapping. We detected different responses to elevation gradients within civet, macaque, and muntjac deer species pairs. Muntjac and porcupine species varied in their response to terrain ruggedness, and the two muntjac responded different to river proximity. Bornean endemic species of civet and muntjac were more sensitive than their widespread counterparts to habitat disturbance (selective logging). Local abundance within several species pairs was positively correlated, but this is likely due to the species having similar responses to (unmodeled) environmental conditions or resources rather than representing facilitation. After accounting for environment and correcting for false absences in detection, negative correlations in local abundance appear rare in tropical mammals. Direct competition may be weak in these species, possibly because the ‘ghost of competition past’ or habitat filtering have already driven separation of the species in niche space. The analytical framework presented here could increase basic understanding of how ecological interactions shape patterns of abundance across the landscape for a range of taxa, and also provide a powerful tool for forecasting the impacts of global change.     

An assessment of animal species diversity in continental waters

There is a need for monitoring the status and trends of freshwater biodiversity in order to quantify the impacts of human actions on freshwater systems and to improve freshwater biodiversity conservation. Current projects carrying assessment of freshwater biodiversity focus mainly on leading-better-known groups such as fish, or identify keystone species and/or endemic freshwater systems for conservation purposes. Our purpose is to complete these existing projects by providing quantitative estimates of species number for all freshwater groups on each continent and/or major eco-regions. This article present the results of the first implementation phase carried out from September 2002 to June 2003 and which addressed only freshwater animal species. The project consisted of: (1) compiling existing data from literature, web sites and museum collections; (2) contacting scientific experts of each group to provide a ‘to the best of their knowledge, estimates of species numbers. In this study, we consider as true freshwater species, those that complete part or all of their life cycle in freshwater, and water-dependant species those that need freshwater for food or that permanently use freshwater habitats. The current order of magnitude for known freshwater animal species world wide is 100 000, of which half are insects. Among other groups, there are some 20 000 vertebrate species; 10 000 crustacean species and 5000 mollusc species that are either true freshwater or water-dependant species. The study highlighted gaps in the basic knowledge of species richness at continental and global scales: (1) Some groups such as Protozoa, nematodes or annelids have been less studied and data on their diversity and distribution is scarce. Because current richness estimates for these groups are greatly biased by knowledge availability, we can expect that real species numbers might be much higher. (2) Continents are not equal in the face of scientific studies: South America and Asia are especially lacking global estimates of species richness for many groups, even for some usually well-known ones such as molluscs or insects. The second phase of the project will address freshwater plants and algae. The present status should be considered as a first sketch of the global picture of freshwater biodiversity. We hope that this project will initiate interactive exchange of data to complete and update this first assessment.     

Global Documentation of Fish Introductions: the Growing Crisis and Recommendations for Action

Fish provides 15% of the total animal protein in human diets. It is also the primary source of livelihood for 35 million people (30 M in Asia and 2.6 M in Africa). The increase in global population and demand for fish protein cannot be met by capture fisheries alone. Governments are turning towards aquaculture as the source of fish protein. However, it has also led to the introduction and establishment of non-native species in local ecosystems through their escapement from aquaculture facilities to the wild. In freshwater ecosystems with relatively high endemism, this has become a significant problem. Documenting the international movement of fish is one way of providing a general view of the magnitude of these movements and the existing and potential threat faced by ecosystems due to species invasiveness. Information, however, is limited and scattered in different journals and agency/project reports. Several agencies, both local and international, have databases that provide information on invasive species (terrestrial and aquatic, local, regional or international in scope). The critical challenge is for consolidation, common access through data sharing and development of risk assessment and management tools. This is proposed through the use of Internet technology, sharing of databases or having a gateway or portal to which all introduced and invasive fish species related databases link. The fusion of these information sources will allow access to updated and reliable information. The experience of the WorldFish Center in documenting these phenomena through developing the FishBase information system and global partnerships is presented with recommendations for harmonizing approaches. An erratum to this article is available at .     

The negative ecological impacts of a globally introduced species decrease with time since introduction

While there is a long‐history of biological invasions and their ecological impacts have been widely demonstrated across taxa and ecosystems, our knowledge on the temporal dynamic of these impacts remains extremely limited. Using a meta‐analytic approach, we investigated how the ecological impacts of non‐native brown trout (Salmo trutta), a model species with a 170‐year‐long and well‐documented history of intentional introductions across the globe, vary with time since introduction. We first observed significant negative ecological impacts immediately after the species introduction. Second, we found that the negative ecological impacts decrease with time since introduction and that the average ecological impacts become nonsignificant more than one century after introduction. This pattern was consistent across other ecological contexts (i.e., geographical location, levels of biological organization, and methodological approach). However, overall negative ecological impacts were more pronounced at the individual and population levels and in experimental studies. While the mechanisms leading to this decrease remain to be determined, our results indicate that rapid response of native organisms (e.g. adaptation, but also local extinction) may play an important role in this dynamic. Changes in native species traits and local extinction can have important conservation implications. Therefore, we argue that the decline of the negative ecological impacts over time should not be used as an argument to neglect the negative impacts of biological invasions.     

Rainfall seasonality and pest pressure as determinants of tropical tree species' distributions

Drought and pests are primary abiotic and biotic factors proposed as selective filters acting on species distributions along rainfall gradients in tropical forests and may contribute importantly to species distributional limits, performance, and diversity gradients. Recent research demonstrates linkages between species distributions along rainfall gradients and physiological drought tolerance; corresponding experimental examinations of the contribution of pest pressure to distributional limits and potential interactions between drought and herbivory are limited. This study aims to quantitate differential performance and herbivory as a function of species range limits across a climatic and floristic transition in Southeast Asia. Khao Chong Botanical Garden, Thailand and Pasoh Forest Reserve, Malaysia straddle the Kangar‐Pattani Line. A reciprocal transplantation across a seasonality gradient was established using two groups of species (“widespread” taxa whose distributions include seasonally dry forests and “aseasonal” taxa whose distributions are limited to aseasonal forests). Growth, biomass allocation, survival, and herbivory were monitored for 19 months. Systematic differences in performance were a function of species distribution in relation to rainfall seasonality. In aseasonal Pasoh, aseasonal species had both greater growth and survivorship than widespread species. These differences were not a function of differential herbivory as widespread and aseasonal species experienced similar damage in the aseasonal forest. In seasonally dry Khao Chong, widespread species showed higher survivorship than aseasonal species, but these differences were only apparent during drought. We link this differential performance to physiological mechanisms as well as differential tolerance of biotic pressure during drought stress. Systematic decreases in seedling survival in aseasonal taxa during drought corresponded with previously documented physiological differences and may be exacerbated by herbivore damage. These results have important implications for tropical diversity and community composition in light of predicted increases in the frequency and severity of drought in hyperdiverse tropical forests.     

The impact of global climate change on genetic diversity within populations and species

Genetic diversity provides the basic substrate for evolution, yet few studies assess the impacts of global climate change (GCC) on intraspecific genetic variation. In this review, we highlight the importance of incorporating neutral and non‐neutral genetic diversity when assessing the impacts of GCC, for example, in studies that aim to predict the future distribution and fate of a species or ecological community. Specifically, we address the following questions: Why study the effects of GCC on intraspecific genetic diversity? How does GCC affect genetic diversity? How is the effect of GCC on genetic diversity currently studied? Where is potential for future research? For each of these questions, we provide a general background and highlight case studies across the animal, plant and microbial kingdoms. We further discuss how cryptic diversity can affect GCC assessments, how genetic diversity can be integrated into studies that aim to predict species' responses on GCC and how conservation efforts related to GCC can incorporate and profit from inclusion of genetic diversity assessments. We argue that studying the fate of intraspecifc genetic diversity is an indispensable and logical venture if we are to fully understand the consequences of GCC on biodiversity on all levels.     

Projected effects of Climate‐change‐induced flow alterations on stream macroinvertebrate abundances

Global change has the potential to affect river flow conditions which are fundamental determinants of physical habitats. Predictions of the effects of flow alterations on aquatic biota have mostly been assessed based on species ecological traits (e.g., current preferences), which are difficult to link to quantitative discharge data. Alternatively, we used empirically derived predictive relationships for species’ response to flow to assess the effect of flow alterations due to climate change in two contrasting central European river catchments. Predictive relationships were set up for 294 individual species based on (1) abundance data from 223 sampling sites in the Kinzig lower‐mountainous catchment and 67 sites in the Treene lowland catchment, and (2) flow conditions at these sites described by five flow metrics quantifying the duration, frequency, magnitude, timing and rate of flow events using present‐day gauging data. Species’ abundances were predicted for three periods: (1) baseline (1998–2017), (2) horizon 2050 (2046–2065) and (3) horizon 2090 (2080–2099) based on these empirical relationships and using high‐resolution modeled discharge data for the present and future climate conditions. We compared the differences in predicted abundances among periods for individual species at each site, where the percent change served as a proxy to assess the potential species responses to flow alterations. Climate change was predicted to most strongly affect the low‐flow conditions, leading to decreased abundances of species up to ?42%. Finally combining the response of all species over all metrics indicated increasing overall species assemblage responses in 98% of the studied river reaches in both projected horizons and were significantly larger in the lower‐mountainous Kinzig compared to the lowland Treene catchment. Such quantitative analyses of freshwater taxa responses to flow alterations provide valuable tools for predicting potential climate‐change impacts on species abundances and can be applied to any stressor, species, or region.     

Projecting terrestrial biodiversity intactness with GLOBIO 4

Scenario‐based biodiversity modelling is a powerful approach to evaluate how possible future socio‐economic developments may affect biodiversity. Here, we evaluated the changes in terrestrial biodiversity intactness, expressed by the mean species abundance (MSA) metric, resulting from three of the shared socio‐economic pathways (SSPs) combined with different levels of climate change (according to representative concentration pathways [RCPs]): a future oriented towards sustainability (SSP1xRCP2.6), a future determined by a politically divided world (SSP3xRCP6.0) and a future with continued global dependency on fossil fuels (SSP5xRCP8.5). To this end, we first updated the GLOBIO model, which now runs at a spatial resolution of 10 arc‐seconds (~300 m), contains new modules for downscaling land use and for quantifying impacts of hunting in the tropics, and updated modules to quantify impacts of climate change, land use, habitat fragmentation and nitrogen pollution. We then used the updated model to project terrestrial biodiversity intactness from 2015 to 2050 as a function of land use and climate changes corresponding with the selected scenarios. We estimated a global area‐weighted mean MSA of 0.56 for 2015. Biodiversity intactness declined in all three scenarios, yet the decline was smaller in the sustainability scenario (?0.02) than the regional rivalry and fossil‐fuelled development scenarios (?0.06 and ?0.05 respectively). We further found considerable variation in projected biodiversity change among different world regions, with large future losses particularly for sub‐Saharan Africa. In some scenario‐region combinations, we projected future biodiversity recovery due to reduced demands for agricultural land, yet this recovery was counteracted by increased impacts of other pressures (notably climate change and road disturbance). Effective measures to halt or reverse the decline of terrestrial biodiversity should not only reduce land demand (e.g. by increasing agricultural productivity and dietary changes) but also focus on reducing or mitigating the impacts of other pressures.     

Canopy and litter ant assemblages share similar climate–species density relationships

Tropical forest canopies house most of the globe''s diversity, yet little is known about global patterns and drivers of canopy diversity. Here, we present models of ant species density, using climate, abundance and habitat (i.e. canopy versus litter) as predictors. Ant species density is positively associated with temperature and precipitation, and negatively (or non-significantly) associated with two metrics of seasonality, precipitation seasonality and temperature range. Ant species density was significantly higher in canopy samples, but this difference disappeared once abundance was considered. Thus, apparent differences in species density between canopy and litter samples are probably owing to differences in abundance–diversity relationships, and not differences in climate–diversity relationships. Thus, it appears that canopy and litter ant assemblages share a common abundance–diversity relationship influenced by similar but not identical climatic drivers.     

A socio‐ecological model for predicting impacts of land‐use and climate change on regional plant diversity in the Austrian Alps

Climate and land‐use change jointly affect the future of biodiversity. Yet, biodiversity scenarios have so far concentrated on climatic effects because forecasts of land use are rarely available at appropriate spatial and thematic scales. Agent‐based models (ABMs) represent a potentially powerful but little explored tool for establishing thematically and spatially fine‐grained land‐use scenarios. Here, we use an ABM parameterized for 1,329 agents, mostly farmers, in a Central European model region, and simulate the changes to land‐use patterns resulting from their response to three scenarios of changing socio‐economic conditions and three scenarios of climate change until the mid of the century. Subsequently, we use species distribution models to, first, analyse relationships between the realized niches of 832 plant species and climatic gradients or land‐use types, respectively, and, second, to project consequent changes in potential regional ranges of these species as triggered by changes in both the altered land‐use patterns and the changing climate. We find that both drivers determine the realized niches of the studied plants, with land use having a stronger effect than any single climatic variable in the model. Nevertheless, the plants' future distributions appear much more responsive to climate than to land‐use changes because alternative future socio‐economic backgrounds have only modest impact on land‐use decisions in the model region. However, relative effects of climate and land‐use changes on biodiversity may differ drastically in other regions, especially where landscapes are still dominated by natural or semi‐natural habitat. We conclude that agent‐based modelling of land use is able to provide scenarios at scales relevant to individual species distribution and suggest that coupling ABMs with models of species' range change should be intensified to provide more realistic biodiversity forecasts.     

Predominant east to west colonizations across major oceanic barriers: Insights into the phylogeographic history of the hydroid superfamily Plumularioidea,suggested by a mitochondrial DNA barcoding marker

We provide preliminary insights into the global phylogeographic and evolutionary patterns across species of the hydrozoan superfamily Plumularioidea (Cnidaria: Hydrozoa). We analyzed 1,114 16S sequences of 198 putative species of Plumularioidea collected worldwide. We investigated genetic connections and divergence in relation to present‐day and ancient biogeographic barriers, climate changes and oceanic circulation. Geographical distributions of most species are generally more constrained than previously assumed. Some species able to raft are dispersed widely. Human‐mediated dispersal explains some wide geographical ranges. Trans‐Atlantic genetic connections are presently unlikely for most of the tropical‐temperate species, but were probably more frequent until the Miocene–Pliocene transition, before restriction of the Tethys Sea and the Central American Seaway. Trans‐Atlantic colonizations were predominantly directed westwards through (sub)tropical waters. The Azores were colonized multiple times and through different routes, mainly from the east Atlantic, at least since the Pliocene. Extant geminate clades separated by the Isthmus of Panama have predominantly Atlantic origin. Various ancient colonizations mainly directed from the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic occurred through the Tethys Sea and around South Africa in periods of lower intensity of the Benguela upwelling. Thermal tolerance, population sizes, dispersal strategies, oceanic currents, substrate preference, and land barriers are important factors for dispersal and speciation of marine hydroids.     

Inclusion of trophic interactions increases the vulnerability of an alpine butterfly species to climate change

Climate change is expected to have significant and complex impacts on ecological communities. In addition to direct effects of climate on species, there can also be indirect effects through an intermediary species, such as in host–plant interactions. Indirect effects are expected to be more pronounced in alpine environments because these ecosystems are sensitive to temperature changes and there are limited areas for migration of both species (i.e. closed systems), and because of simpler trophic interactions. We tested the hypothesis that climate change will reduce the range of an alpine butterfly (Parnassius smintheus) because of indirect effects through its host plant (Sedum sp.). To test for direct and indirect effects, we used the simulations of climate change to assess the distribution of P. smintheus with and without Sedum sp. We also compared the projected ranges of P. smintheus to four other butterfly species that are found in the alpine, but that are generalists feeding on many plant genera. We found that P. smintheus gained distributional area in climate‐only models, but these gains were significantly reduced with the inclusion of Sedum sp. and in dry‐climate scenarios which resulted in a reduction in net area. When compared to the more generalist butterfly species, P. smintheus exhibited the largest loss in suitable habitat. Our findings support the importance of including indirect effects in modelling species distributions in response to climate change. We highlight the potentially large and still neglected impacts climate change can have on the trophic structure of communities, which can lead to significant losses of biodiversity. In the future, communities will continue to favour species that are generalists as climate change induces asynchronies in the migration of species.