MODIS VCF should not be used to detect discontinuities in tree cover due to binning bias. A comment on Hanan et al. (2014) and Staver and Hansen (2015)

In their recent paper, Staver and Hansen (Global Ecology and Biogeography, 2015, 24, 985–987) refute the case made by Hanan et al. (Global Ecology and Biogeography, 2014, 23, 259–263) that the use of classification and regression trees (CARTs) to predict tree cover from remotely sensed imagery (MODIS VCF) inherently introduces biases, thus making the resulting tree cover unsuitable for showing alternative stable states through tree cover frequency distribution analyses. Here we provide a new and equally fundamental argument for why the published frequency distributions should not be used for such purposes. We show that the practice of pre‐average binning of tree cover values used to derive cover values to train the CART model will also introduce errors in the frequency distributions of the final product. We demonstrate that the frequency minima found at tree covers of 8–18%, 33–45% and 55–75% can be attributed to numerical biases introduced when training samples are derived from landscapes containing asymmetric tree cover distributions and/or a tree cover gradient. So it is highly likely that the CART, used to produce MODIS VCF, delivers tree cover frequency distributions that do not reflect the real world situation.     

Analysis of stable states in global savannas: is the CART pulling the horse? – a comment

In their recent paper, Hanan et al. (Global Ecology and Biogeography, 2014, 23 , 259–263) argue that the use of classification and regression trees (CARTs) to calibrate global remote sensing datasets, including the MODIS VCF tree‐cover dataset, makes these data inappropriate for analysing the frequency distribution of tree cover. While we agree with their most general point – that the use of remote sensing products should be informed and deliberate – their analysis overlooks a few key aspects of the use of CARTs in generating global tree‐cover data. Firstly, while their presentation of flaws in the use of CARTs is compelling, their use of hypothetical data obscures the reasons why CARTs are a useful tool. Secondly, they do not actually examine the error distributions of the MODIS VCF tree‐cover data. Such an analysis, which we perform, revealed the following: (1) the MODIS VCF product may not be useful for differentiating over small ranges of tree cover (less than c. 10%); (2) that the bimodality of low and high tree cover, with a frequency minimum at intermediate tree cover, is not attributable to bias in MODIS VCF tree‐cover calibrations; and (3) that the MODIS VCF is not well‐resolved below c. 20–30% tree cover, such that MODIS cannot be used with any confidence to evaluate multimodality in tree cover in that range. Further validation and calibration are likely to be helpful and, at low tree cover, necessary for improving MODIS VCF tree‐cover estimates. However, the MODIS VCF – which has facilitated major steps in our ability to examine ecological phenomena at global scales – remains a useful tool for well‐informed ecological analysis.     

Analysis of stable states in global savannas: is the CART pulling the horse?

Multiple stable states, bifurcations and thresholds are fashionable concepts in the ecological literature, a recognition that complex ecosystems may at times exhibit the interesting dynamic behaviours predicted by relatively simple biomathematical models. Recently, several papers in Global Ecology and Biogeography, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, Science and elsewhere have attempted to quantify the prevalence of alternate stable states in the savannas of Africa, Australia and South America, and the tundra–taiga–grassland transitions of the circum‐boreal region using satellite‐derived woody canopy cover. While we agree with the logic that basins of attraction can be inferred from the relative frequencies of ecosystem states observed in space and time, we caution that the statistical methodologies underlying the satellite product used in these studies may confound our ability to infer the presence of multiple stable states. We demonstrate this point using a uniformly distributed ‘pseudo‐tree cover’ database for Africa that we use to retrace the steps involved in creation of the satellite tree‐cover product and subsequent analysis. We show how classification and regression tree (CART)‐based products may impose discontinuities in satellite tree‐cover estimates even when such discontinuities are not present in reality. As regional and global remote sensing and geospatial data become more easily accessible for ecological studies, we recommend careful consideration of how error distributions in remote sensing products may interact with the data needs and theoretical expectations of the ecological process under study.     

Seeing the forest beyond the trees

In a recent paper (Mitchard et al. 2014, Global Ecology and Biogeography, 23 , 935–946) a new map of forest biomass based on a geostatistical model of field data for the Amazon (and surrounding forests) was presented and contrasted with two earlier maps based on remote‐sensing data Saatchi et al. (2011; RS1) and Baccini et al. (2012; RS2). Mitchard et al. concluded that both the earlier remote‐sensing based maps were incorrect because they did not conform to Mitchard et al. interpretation of the field‐based results. In making their case, however, they misrepresented the fundamental nature of primary field and remote‐sensing data and committed critical errors in their assumptions about the accuracy of research plots, the interpolation methodology and the statistical analysis. By ignoring the large uncertainty associated with ground estimates of biomass and the significant under‐sampling and spatial bias of research plots, Mitchard et al. reported erroneous trends and artificial patterns of biomass over Amazonia. Because of these misrepresentations and methodological flaws, we find their critique of the satellite‐derived maps to be invalid.     

Large‐scale patterns of tree species richness and the metabolic theory of ecology

The metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) endeavours to explain ecosystem structure and function in terms of the effects of temperature and body size on metabolic rate. In a recent paper (Wang et al., 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 106 , 13388), we tested the MTE predictions of species richness using tree distributions in eastern Asia and North America. Our results supported the linear relationship between log‐transformed species richness and the inverse of absolute temperature predicted by the MTE, but the slope strongly depends on spatial scale. The results also indicate that there are more tree species in cold climate at high latitudes in North America than in eastern Asia, but the reverse is true in warm climate at low latitudes. Qian & Ricklefs (2011, Global Ecology and Biogeography, 20 , 362–365) recently questioned our data and some of the analyses. Here we reply to them, and provide further analyses to show that their critiques are primarily based on unsuitable data and subjective conjecture.     

Response to commentary by Woinarski (Critical‐weight‐range marsupials in northern Australia are declining: a commentary on Fisher et al. (2014) ‘The current decline of tropical marsupials in Australia: is history repeating?’)

The recent commentary by Woinarski (2014, Global Ecology and Biogeography, doi: 10.1111/geb.12165) disagreed with our conclusions on the correlates of decline in the marsupials of tropical Australia (Fisher et al., 2014, Global Ecology and Biogeography, 23 , 181–190). We compared traits of species that were associated with range decline in southern and northern Australia. We found that habitat structure, climate and body size were correlated with range decline. In the north, declines of marsupials were most severe in savanna with moderate rainfall. In the south, the ranges of species in open habitat with very low rainfall have declined most. Also, the association between range decline and body mass differed between north and south: this is the main concern of Woinarski, who further disagreed with our choice of the Tropic of Capricorn as a boundary between north and south, our omission of rodents, how to treat timing of extinctions, and our inference that cats are major drivers of decline. We address these concerns in this response.     

High‐severity fire corroborated in historical dry forests of the western United States: response to Fulé et al.

Accurate assessment of changing fire regimes is important, since climatic change and people may be promoting more wildfires. Government wildland fire policies and restoration programmes in dry western US forests are based on the hypothesis that high‐severity fire was rare in historical fire regimes, modern fire severity is unnaturally high and restoration efforts should focus primarily on thinning forests to eliminate high‐severity fire. Using General Land Office (GLO) survey data over large dry‐forest landscapes, we showed that the proportion of historical forest affected by high‐severity fire was not insignificant, fire severity has not increased as a proportion of total fire area and large areas of dense forest were present historically (Williams & Baker, Global Ecology and Biogeography, 21 , 1042–1052, 2012; W&B). In response, Fulé et al. (Global Ecology and Biogeography, 2013, doi: 10.1111/geb.12136; FE) suggest that our inferences are unsupported and land management based on our research could be damaging to native ecosystems. Here, we show that the concerns of FE are unfounded. Their criticism comes from misquoting W&B, mistaking W&B's methods, misusing evidence (e.g. from Aldo Leopold) and missing substantial available evidence. We also update corroboration for the extensive historical high‐severity fire shown by W&B. We suggest that restoration programmes are misdirected in seeking to reduce all high‐severity fire in dry forests, given findings from spatially extensive GLO data and other sources.     

The need for richness‐independent measures of turnover when delineating biogeographical regions

Delineating biogeographical regions is one of the primary steps when analysing biogeographical patterns. In their proposed quantitative framework, Kreft & Jetz (2010, Journal of Biogeography, 37 , 2029–2053) recommended the use of the β_sim index to delineate biogeographical regions because this turnover measure is weakly affected by differences in species richness between localities. A recent study by Carvalho et al. (2012, Global Ecology and Biogeography, 21 , 760–771) critiziced the use of β_sim in ecological and biogeographical studies, and proposed the β_‐3 index. Here we used simple numerical examples and an empirical case study (European freshwater fishes) to highlight potential pitfalls associated with the use of β_‐3 for bioregionalization. We show that β_‐3 is not a richness‐independent measure of species turnover. We also show that this index violates the ‘complementarity’ property, namely that localities without species in common have the largest dissimilarity, which is an essential prerequisite for beta diversity studies.     

Critical‐weight‐range marsupials in northern Australia are declining: a commentary on Fisher et al. (2014) ‘The current decline of tropical marsupials in Australia: is history repeating?’

Many mammal species are declining in parts of Australia's tropical savannas, for reasons that are not yet well defined. A recent paper (Fisher et al., 2014, Global Ecology and Biogeography, 23 , 181–190) suggested that the primary cause is predation by feral cats, with the main evidence presented being a purported over‐representation of small species amongst the marsupials that have contracted in range (‘small body size signifies high current extinction risk’). However, a review here of the information presented in that paper shows that no marsupial species smaller than 100 g has shown range contraction in northern Australia, and that most (15 of 17) declines are of species in the ‘critical weight range’ (35 g to 5.5 kg).     

There is a critical weight range for Australia's declining tropical mammals

Many mammals in Australia's tropical north are in severe decline, yet understanding of the drivers of this decline is remarkably limited. Recently, Fisher et al. (Global Ecology and Biogeography, 2014, 23 , 181?190) examined the traits that are associated with declining marsupial species in northern Australia. They concluded that, in this region, declines are most pronounced in the smallest species (those with the lowest body mass). This is in strong contrast to the significant declines that occurred earlier in central and southern Australia before the mid 20th century, which were most pronounced in medium‐sized species, the so‐called ‘critical weight range’ (35?5500 g). Here we show that Fisher et al. have misinterpreted their dataset; in northern Australia, the pattern of mammal decline in relation to body mass is remarkably similar to that in central and southern Australia, with mammal decline strongly concentrated in the critical weight range, suggesting fundamentally similar drivers between north and south.     

Unsupported inferences of high‐severity fire in historical dry forests of the western United States: response to Williams and Baker

Reconstructions of dry western US forests in the late 19th century in Arizona, Colorado and Oregon based on General Land Office records were used by Williams & Baker (2012; Global Ecology and Biogeography, 21 , 1042–1052; hereafter W&B) to infer past fire regimes with substantial moderate and high‐severity burning. The authors concluded that present‐day large, high‐severity fires are not distinguishable from historical patterns. We present evidence of important errors in their study. First, the use of tree size distributions to reconstruct past fire severity and extent is not supported by empirical age–size relationships nor by studies that directly quantified disturbance history in these forests. Second, the fire severity classification of W&B is qualitatively different from most modern classification schemes, and is based on different types of data, leading to an inappropriate comparison. Third, we note that while W&B asserted ‘surprising’ heterogeneity in their reconstructions of stand density and species composition, their data are not substantially different from many previous studies which reached very different conclusions about subsequent forest and fire behaviour changes. Contrary to the conclusions of W&B, the preponderance of scientific evidence indicates that conservation of dry forest ecosystems in the western United States and their ecological, social and economic value is not consistent with a present‐day disturbance regime of large, high‐severity fires, especially under changing climate.     

神农架川金丝猴栖息地优势乔木树种遥感识别及其分布特征

针对神农架川金丝猴生境基础研究中乔木树种大范围分布数据难以获取问题,尝试利用多源多时相遥感数据结合专家知识分层次实现树种识别。首先采用冬季Landsat8/OLI数据根据物侯特性分层提取常绿、落叶林的地域范围;进而依据夏季Worldview-2高分遥感影像的实地乔木样本的光谱特征分层次完成常绿树种(巴山冷杉、华山松、青$、刺叶栎)和落叶树种(红桦、日本落叶松、米心水青冈、漆树、锐齿槲栎、椅杨)的识别;并通过实地植被样方及专家知识通过高程数据完成分类结果的修正;最后结合GIS对主要优势树种的地形及地域分布特征进行了空间分析。实验精度表明常绿林中巴山冷杉、华山松、刺叶栎、虫害华山松整体精度较高,落叶林中红桦、漆树等识别精度相对较高,部分树种如椅杨、锐齿槲栎识别精度较低;总体上常绿树种的精度要优于落叶树种。从植物地理学、遥感、GIS三者相结合的角度,将多源、多时相遥感数据与物种物候特性、专家知识进行有效整合,提出了一种乔木树种识别的方法(1)提供了复杂山地环境的主要乔木优势种识别途径,且具有通用性;(2)完成了物种物候特性与遥感数据特性的整合利用,有效降低数据成本费用;(3)配合地面样方及专家知识修正结果,避免了过分依赖光谱特征引起的误判。这将为神农架川金丝猴栖息地保护与恢复提供更精确的数据依据。     

Benthic habitats do show a significant latitudinal diversity gradient: A comment on Kinlock et al. (2018)

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) has been investigated for decades, with hundreds of studies focusing on different organisms, regions and habitat types. Meta‐analysis may be considered, therefore, a useful tool to explore the generality and limitations of this remarkable macroecological pattern. The first meta‐analysis exploring variations in the LDG, published by Hillebrand in 2004, revealed that the latitudinal decline in species richness seems to be indeed a general phenomenon. However, Kinlock et al. (2018, Global Ecology and Biogeography, 27, 125–141) revisited recently the challenge of synthesizing individual LDGs and indicated that the phenomenon is not ubiquitous among habitats of the marine realm. More precisely, they indicated that the phenomenon is non‐significant in the benthic habitat. Here, we suggest that the marine habitat categories used by them (i.e., benthic, coral reefs, coastal, open ocean) are not independent and that reclassifying the studies significantly alters one of their main results. By assigning the studies into benthic and pelagic categories, and additionally into coastal or oceanic zones, we show that non‐ambiguous, evolutionarily meaningful marine habitats display a significant latitudinal decline in species richness.     

Characterizing abundance–occupancy relationships: there is no artefact

Positive abundance–occupancy relationships (AORs) are among the most general macroecological patterns: locally common species are regionally widespread, locally rare species are regionally restricted. In a recent contribution, Wilson (Global Ecology and Biogeography, 2011, 20 , 193–202) made three claims: (1) that AORs are critically dependent on the method used to calculate average abundance; (2) averaging abundance over occupied sites tends to lead to a very high incidence of negative relationships; (3) this represents a statistical artefact that should be considered in studies of AORs. Here we show that this outcome arises in Wilson's simulations purely due to an arbitrary choice of occupancy models and parameter ranges. The resulting negative relationships are not statistical artefacts, but are easily interpreted in terms of spatial aggregation in abundant species. The fact that empirical evidence fails to support a high prevalence of negative AORs suggests, however, that such parameter combinations arise only rarely in nature. We conclude that simulations that are based on untested assumptions, and that produce patterns unsupported by empirical evidence, have limited use in characterizing AORs, and add little to understanding of the processes driving important relationships between local population size and regional occupancy.     

Rethinking the relationship between nestedness and beta diversity: a comment on Baselga (2010)

Baselga [Partitioning the turnover and nestedness components of beta diversity. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 19 , 134–143, 2010] proposed pairwise (β_nes) and multiple‐site (β_NES) beta‐diversity measures to account for the nestedness component of beta diversity. We used empirical, randomly created and idealized matrices to show that both measures are only partially related to nestedness and do not fit certain fundamental requirements for consideration as true nestedness‐resultant dissimilarity measures. Both β_nes and β_NES are influenced by matrix size and fill, and increase or decrease even when nestedness remains constant. Additionally, we demonstrate that β_NES can yield high values even for matrices with no nestedness. We conclude that β_nes and β_NES are not true measures of the nestedness‐resultant dissimilarity between sites. Actually, they quantify how differences in species richness that are not due to species replacement contribute to patterns of beta diversity. Finally, because nestedness is a special case of dissimilarity in species composition due to ordered species loss (or gain), the extent to which differences in species composition is due to nestedness can be measured through an index of nestedness.     

基于遥感与实地调查对潜在可造林区乔木林和灌草地的比较

气候变化引起祁连山东部地区可适植被类型改变,探究植被类型转换的效果对生态环境可持续发展十分重要,但其转换方式及效果仍有待研究,此外传统植被调查的方法有诸多局限性,不能满足大尺度持续的监测,而遥感监测可以弥补这一劣势。基于遥感和样地调查以祁连山生态交错区甘沟小流域为研究地点,对原有灌草地和植树造林的乔木林进行比较,探究二者土壤理化性质、草本植物多样性及植被归一化指数（NDVI）,增强植被指数（EVI）,植被水分指数（NDMI）,水分胁迫指数（MSI）,叶绿素红外指数（CI）,陆地叶绿素指数（MTCI）的差异。结果表明仅有水分相关指标有显著性差异,其中造林造成浅层土壤水分显著降低（P<0.01）,4-5月份MSI和NDMI造林区植被水分高于灌草地（P<0.01）,7-8月份两种植被类型水分指数以及其余指数无显著性差异,另外造林后的土壤有机质出现了轻微下降（P>0.05）。遥感指数和样地调查指标相关性分析中,土壤有机质和Shannon多样性指数与CI成正相关（P<0.05）,植被覆盖度与NDMI成负相关（P<0.05）,由于覆盖度较低的灌草地EVI和NDVI被高估,覆盖度和EVI与NDVI相关性不显著。综合遥感指数和实地调查分析,短时间造林时间内乔木林牺牲了部分土壤水分,提高了植被盖度,且目前造林并未对当地环境产生胁迫,但对生态环境的改善并不明显。基于遥感和样地调查揭示了潜在植被类型转换区原有灌草地和植树造林区的差异,并探讨遥感在小尺度范围内植被监测上的适用性,为植被建设和遥感监测植被状况提供借鉴。     

Modelling tree diversity in a highly fragmented tropical montane landscape

Aim There is an urgent need for conservation in threatened tropical forest regions. We explain and predict the spatial variation of α (i.e. within plot) and β (i.e. between plot) tree diversity in a tropical montane landscape subjected to a high deforestation rate. A major aim is to demonstrate the potential of a method that combines data from multiple sources (field data, remote sensing imagery and GIS) to evaluate and monitor forest diversity on a broad scale over large unexplored areas. Location The study covered an area of c. 3500 km² in the Highlands of Chiapas, southern Mexico. Methods We identified all of the tree species within 204 field plots (1000 m² each) and measured different environmental, human disturbance‐related, and spatial variables using remote sensing and GIS data. To obtain a predictive model of α tree diversity (Fisher's alpha) based on selected explanatory variables, we used a generalized linear model with a gamma error distribution. Mantel tests of matrix correspondence were used to determine whether similarities in floristic composition were correlated with similarities in the explanatory variables. Finally, we used a method that combines α and β tree diversity to define priority areas for conservation. Results The model for α tree diversity explained 44% of the overall variability, of which most was mainly related to precipitation, temperature, NDVI, and canopy (all relationships were positive, and quadratic for temperature and NDVI). There were no spatially structured regional factors that were ignored. Similarity in tree composition was correlated positively with climate and NDVI. Main conclusions The results were used to: (1) identify and assign conservation priority of unexplored areas that have high tree diversity, and (2) demonstrate the importance of several vegetation formations in the region's biodiversity. The method we present can be particularly useful in assessing regional needs and in developing local conservation strategies in poorly surveyed (and often at risk) tropical areas worldwide, where accessibility is usually limited.     

遥感GPP模型在中亚干旱区4个典型生态系统的适用性评价

总初级生产力(GPP)是全球生态系统碳循环的重要组成部分,对全球气候变化有重要影响。目前有多种遥感模型可以模拟总初级生产力,比较不同遥感模型在中亚干旱区上的适用性对推进全球干旱区碳收支估算具有重要意义。基于涡度协相关技术观测的四个地面站数据验证MOD17、VODCA2、VPM、TG、SANIRv五种模型的模拟精度。结果表明：(1)基于光能利用率理论的MOD17、VPM模型模拟咸海荒漠植被和阜康荒漠植被GPP的精度最高(R²分别为0.52和0.80),但在模拟草地、农田生态系统生产力时存在较明显的低估(RE>20%);基于植被指数的遥感模型TG模型、SANIRv模型模拟巴尔喀什湖草地生态系统和乌兰乌苏农田生态系统GPP的精度最高(R²分别为0.91和0.81),同时模拟值与实测值的相对误差也较低;基于微波的VODCA2模型模拟各生态系统生产力的效果最差。(2)水分亏缺是限制植被GPP的主要因素,因此是否合理考虑水分胁迫是影响GPP模型在中亚干旱区适用性的重要因素。研究揭示了遥感GPP模型在中亚干旱区的应用潜力,为推进全球植被碳通量的准确估...     

Scale and macroecological patterns in seed dispersal mutualisms

Although some studies of seed dispersal mutualisms have documented adaptive relationships between fruits and frugivores, others have shown that adaptive patterns are constrained by phylogenetic, historical or climatic effects. Variable results among studies have thwarted attempts to find a paradigm to unite the field and direct research. Two recent studies in Global Ecology and Biogeography exemplify this dichotomy. One paper reported adaptive relationships between abundances of birds and fruits, while the other study found that bird‐fruit abundance patterns were constrained by climatic effects. Almost paradoxically, both studies were conducted at the same locale. However, they focused on different spatio‐temporal scales. These results are surprisingly consistent with several other recent studies that have taken a macroecological approach. They also indicate that mutualistic relationships between fruits and frugivores are scale dependent. When viewed together, recent work suggests that the conflicting results of previous studies may result from spatio‐temporal variability of mutualistic relationships. This paper briefly reviews the emerging field of seed dispersal macroecology. A growing appreciation for scale appears to be leading the field in a new direction.     

Pyrogeography,historical ecology,and the human dimensions of fire regimes

In our 2011 synthesis (Bowman et al., Journal of Biogeography, 2011, 38 , 2223–2236), we argued for a holistic approach to human issues in fire science that we term ‘pyrogeography’. Coughlan & Petty (Journal of Biogeography, 2013, 40 , 1010–1012) critiqued our paper on the grounds that our ‘pyric phase’ model was built on outdated views of cultural development, claiming we developed it to be the unifying explanatory framework for all human–fire sciences. Rather, they suggest that ‘historical ecology’ could provide such a framework. We used the ‘pyric transition’ for multiple purposes but did not offer it as an exclusive explanatory framework for pyrogeography. Although ‘historical ecology’ is one of many useful approaches to studying human–fire relationships, scholars should also look to political and evolutionary ecology, ecosystems and complexity theories, as well as empirical generalizations to build an interdisciplinary fire science that incorporates human, ecological and biophysical dimensions of fire regimes.