Ancestral Polymorphisms and Sex-Biased Migration Shaped the Demographic History of Brown Bears and Polar Bears

Recent studies have reported discordant gene trees in the evolution of brown bears and polar bears. Genealogical histories are different among independent nuclear loci and between biparentally inherited autosomal DNA (aDNA) and matrilineal mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). Based on multi-locus genomic sequences from aDNA and mtDNA, we inferred the population demography of brown and polar bears and found that brown bears have 6 times (aDNA) or more than 14 times (mtDNA) larger population sizes than polar bears and that polar bear lineage is derived from within brown bear diversity. In brown bears, the effective population size ratio of mtDNA to aDNA was at least 0.62, which deviated from the expected value of 0.25, suggesting matriarchal population due to female philopatry and male-biased migration. These results emphasize that ancestral polymorphisms and sex-biased migration may have contributed to conflicting branching patterns in brown and polar bears across aDNA genes and mtDNA.     

Bayesian estimation of sequence damage in ancient DNA

DNA extracted from archaeological and paleontological remains is usually damaged by biochemical processes postmortem. Some of these processes lead to changes in the structure of the DNA molecule, which can result in the incorporation of incorrect nucleotides during polymerase chain reaction. These base misincorporations, or miscoding lesions, can lead to the inclusion of spurious additional mutations in ancient DNA (aDNA) data sets. This has the potential to affect the outcome of phylogenetic and population genetic analyses, including estimates of mutation rates and genetic diversity. We present a novel model, termed the delta model, which estimates the amount of damage in DNA data and accounts for its effects in a Bayesian phylogenetic framework. The ability of the delta model to estimate damage is first investigated using a simulation study. The model is then applied to 13 aDNA data sets. The amount of damage in these data sets is shown to be significant but low (about 1 damaged base per 750 nt), suggesting that precautions for limiting the influence of damaged sites, such as cloning and enzymatic treatment, are worthwhile. The results also suggest that relatively high rates of mutation previously estimated from aDNA data are not entirely an artifact of sequence damage and are likely to be due to other factors such as the persistence of transient polymorphisms. The delta model appears to be particularly useful for placing upper credibility limits on the amount of sequence damage in an alignment, and this capacity might be beneficial for future aDNA studies or for the estimation of sequencing errors in modern DNA.     

Bayes estimation of species divergence times and ancestral population sizes using DNA sequences from multiple loci

The effective population sizes of ancestral as well as modern species are important parameters in models of population genetics and human evolution. The commonly used method for estimating ancestral population sizes, based on counting mismatches between the species tree and the inferred gene trees, is highly biased as it ignores uncertainties in gene tree reconstruction. In this article, we develop a Bayes method for simultaneous estimation of the species divergence times and current and ancestral population sizes. The method uses DNA sequence data from multiple loci and extracts information about conflicts among gene tree topologies and coalescent times to estimate ancestral population sizes. The topology of the species tree is assumed known. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is implemented to integrate over uncertain gene trees and branch lengths (or coalescence times) at each locus as well as species divergence times. The method can handle any species tree and allows different numbers of sequences at different loci. We apply the method to published noncoding DNA sequences from the human and the great apes. There are strong correlations between posterior estimates of speciation times and ancestral population sizes. With the use of an informative prior for the human-chimpanzee divergence date, the population size of the common ancestor of the two species is estimated to be approximately 20,000, with a 95% credibility interval (8000, 40,000). Our estimates, however, are affected by model assumptions as well as data quality. We suggest that reliable estimates have yet to await more data and more realistic models.     

Bayesian inference of errors in ancient DNA caused by postmortem degradation

Methods for extracting and amplifying sequences using ancient DNA (aDNA) can be prone to errors caused by postmortem modifications of the DNA strand. A new statistical method is developed for predicting errors in aDNA sequences caused by such processes. In addition to the canonical DNA substitution model parameters, a discrete Markov chain is used to describe nucleotide substitutions occurring via postmortem degradation of the aDNA sequences. A computer program, BYPASSR-degr, was developed implementing the method and was used in subsequent analyses of simulated data sets under the new model. Simulation studies show that the new method can be powerful and accurate in identifying damaged sites. The method is applied to analyze aDNA sequences of Etruscans, Adélie penguins, and horses. No significant signals of degradation were observed at any sites of the aDNA sequences we analyzed.     

Perspective: gene divergence, population divergence, and the variance in coalescence time in phylogeographic studies

Molecular methods as applied to the biogeography of single species (phylogeography) or multiple codistributed species (comparative phylogeography) have been productively and extensively used to elucidate common historical features in the diversification of the Earth's biota. However, only recently have methods for estimating population divergence times or their confidence limits while taking into account the critical effects of genetic polymorphism in ancestral species become available, and earlier methods for doing so are underutilized. We review models that address the crucial distinction between the gene divergence, the parameter that is typically recovered in molecular phylogeographic studies, and the population divergence, which is in most cases the parameter of interest and will almost always postdate the gene divergence. Assuming that population sizes of ancestral species are distributed similarly to those of extant species, we show that phylogeographic studies in vertebrates suggest that divergence of alleles in ancestral species can comprise from less than 10% to over 50% of the total divergence between sister species, suggesting that the problem of ancestral polymorphism in dating population divergence can be substantial. The variance in the number of substitutions (among loci for a given species or among species for a given gene) resulting from the stochastic nature of DNA change is generally smaller than the variance due to substitutions along allelic lines whose coalescence times vary due to genetic drift in the ancestral population. Whereas the former variance can be reduced by further DNA sequencing at a single locus, the latter cannot. Contrary to phylogeographic intuition, dating population divergence times when allelic lines have achieved reciprocal monophyly is in some ways more challenging than when allelic lines have not achieved monophyly, because in the former case critical data on ancestral population size provided by residual ancestral polymorphism is lost. In the former case differences in coalescence time between species pairs can in principle be explained entirely by differences in ancestral population size without resorting to explanations involving differences in divergence time. Furthermore, the confidence limits on population divergence times are severely underestimated when those for number of substitutions per site in the DNA sequences examined are used as a proxy. This uncertainty highlights the importance of multilocus data in estimating population divergence times; multilocus data can in principle distinguish differences in coalescence time (T) resulting from differences in population divergence time and differences in T due to differences in ancestral population sizes and will reduce the confidence limits on the estimates. We analyze the contribution of ancestral population size (theta) to T and the effect of uncertainty in theta on estimates of population divergence (tau) for single loci under reciprocal monophyly using a simple Bayesian extension of Takahata and Satta's and Yang's recent coalescent methods. The confidence limits on tau decrease when the range over which ancestral population size theta is assumed to be distributed decreases and when tau increases; they generally exclude zero when tau/(4Ne) > 1. We also apply a maximum-likelihood method to several single and multilocus data sets. With multilocus data, the criterion for excluding tau = 0 is roughly that l tau/(4Ne) > 1, where l is the number of loci. Our analyses corroborate recent suggestions that increasing the number of loci is critical to decreasing the uncertainty in estimates of population divergence time.     

Estimation of the ancestral effective population sizes of African great apes under different selection regimes

Reliable estimates of ancestral effective population sizes are necessary to unveil the population-level phenomena that shaped the phylogeny and molecular evolution of the African great apes. Although several methods have previously been applied to infer ancestral effective population sizes, an analysis of the influence of the selective regime on the estimates of ancestral demography has not been thoroughly conducted. In this study, three independent data sets under different selective regimes were used were composed to tackle this issue. The results showed that selection had a significant impact on the estimates of ancestral effective population sizes of the African great apes. The inference of the ancestral demography of African great apes was affected by the selection regime. The effects, however, were not homogeneous along the ancestral populations of great apes. The effective population size of the ancestor of humans and chimpanzees was more impacted by the selection regime when compared to the same parameter in the ancestor of humans, chimpanzees and gorillas. Because the selection regime influenced the estimates of ancestral effective population size, it is reasonable to assume that a portion of the discrepancy found in previous studies that inferred the ancestral effective population size may be attributable to the differential action of selection on the genes sampled.     

Estimation of hominoid ancestral population sizes under bayesian coalescent models incorporating mutation rate variation and sequencing errors

Estimation of population parameters for the common ancestors of humans and the great apes is important in understanding our evolutionary history. In particular, inference of population size for the human-chimpanzee common ancestor may shed light on the process by which the 2 species separated and on whether the human population experienced a severe size reduction in its early evolutionary history. In this study, the Bayesian method of ancestral inference of Rannala and Yang (2003. Bayes estimation of species divergence times and ancestral population sizes using DNA sequences from multiple loci. Genetics. 164:1645-1656) was extended to accommodate variable mutation rates among loci and random species-specific sequencing errors. The model was applied to analyze a genome-wide data set of approximately 15,000 neutral loci (7.4 Mb) aligned for human, chimpanzee, gorilla, orangutan, and macaque. We obtained robust and precise estimates for effective population sizes along the hominoid lineage extending back approximately 30 Myr to the cercopithecoid divergence. The results showed that ancestral populations were 5-10 times larger than modern humans along the entire hominoid lineage. The estimates were robust to the priors used and to model assumptions about recombination. The unusually low X chromosome divergence between human and chimpanzee could not be explained by variation in the male mutation bias or by current models of hybridization and introgression. Instead, our parameter estimates were consistent with a simple instantaneous process for human-chimpanzee speciation but showed a major reduction in X chromosome effective population size peculiar to the human-chimpanzee common ancestor, possibly due to selective sweeps on the X prior to separation of the 2 species.     

Tracking down human contamination in ancient human teeth

DNA contamination arising from the manipulation of ancient calcified tissue samples is a poorly understood, yet fundamental, problem that affects the reliability of ancient DNA (aDNA) studies. We have typed the mitochondrial DNA hypervariable region I of the only 6 people involved in the excavation, washing, and subsequent anthropological and genetic study of 23 Neolithic remains excavated from Granollers (Barcelona, Spain) and searched for their presence among the 572 clones generated during the aDNA analyses of teeth from these samples. Of the cloned sequences, 17.13% could be unambiguously identified as contaminants, with those derived from the people involved in the retrieval and washing of the remains present in higher frequencies than those of the anthropologist and genetic researchers. This finding confirms, for the first time, previous hypotheses that teeth samples are most susceptible to contamination at their initial excavation. More worrying, the cloned contaminant sequences exhibit substitutions that can be attributed to DNA damage after the contamination event, and we demonstrate that the level of such damage increases with time: contaminants that are >10 years old have approximately 5 times more damage than those that are recent. Furthermore, we demonstrate that in this data set, the damage rate of the old contaminant sequences is indistinguishable from that of the endogenous DNA sequences. As such, the commonly used argument that miscoding lesions observed among cloned aDNA sequences can be used to support data authenticity is misleading in scenarios where the presence of old contaminant sequences is possible. We argue therefore that the typing of those involved in the manipulation of the ancient human specimens is critical in order to ensure that generated results are accurate.     

On the estimation of ancestral population sizes of modern humans

The theory developed by Takahata and colleagues for estimating the effective population size of ancestral species using homologous sequences from closely related extant species was extended to take account of variation of evolutionary rates among loci. Nuclear sequence data related to the evolution of modern humans were reanalysed and computer simulations were performed to examine the effect of rate variation on estimation of ancestral population sizes. It is found that the among-locus rate variation does not have a significant effect on estimation of the current population size when sequences from multiple loci are sampled from the same species, but does have a significant effect on estimation of the ancestral population size using sequences from different species. The effects of ancestral population size, species divergence time and among-locus rate variation are found to be highly correlated, and to achieve reliable estimates of the ancestral population size, effects of the other two factors should be estimated independently.     

Placing Ancient DNA Sequences into Reference Phylogenies

Joint phylogenetic analysis of ancient DNA (aDNA) with modern phylogenies is hampered by low sequence coverage and post-mortem deamination, often resulting in overconservative or incorrect assignment. We provide a new efficient likelihood-based workflow, pathPhynder, that takes advantage of all the polymorphic sites in the target sequence. This effectively evaluates the number of ancestral and derived alleles present on each branch and reports the most likely placement of an ancient sample in the phylogeny and a haplogroup assignment, together with alternatives and supporting evidence. To illustrate the application of pathPhynder, we show improved Y chromosome assignments for published aDNA sequences, using a newly compiled Y variation data set (120,908 markers from 2,014 samples) that significantly enhances Y haplogroup assignment for low coverage samples. We apply the method to all published male aDNA samples from Africa, giving new insights into ancient migrations and the relationships between ancient and modern populations. The same software can be used to place samples with large amounts of missing data into other large non-recombining phylogenies such as the mitochondrial tree.     

Likelihood and Bayes estimation of ancestral population sizes in hominoids using data from multiple loci

Polymorphisms in an ancestral population can cause conflicts between gene trees and the species tree. Such conflicts can be used to estimate ancestral population sizes when data from multiple loci are available. In this article I extend previous work for estimating ancestral population sizes to analyze sequence data from three species under a finite-site nucleotide substitution model. Both maximum-likelihood (ML) and Bayes methods are implemented for joint estimation of the two speciation dates and the two population size parameters. Both methods account for uncertainties in the gene tree due to few informative sites at each locus and make an efficient use of information in the data. The Bayes algorithm using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) enjoys a computational advantage over ML and also provides a framework for incorporating prior information about the parameters. The methods are applied to a data set of 53 nuclear noncoding contigs from human, chimpanzee, and gorilla published by Chen and Li. Estimates of the effective population size for the common ancestor of humans and chimpanzees by both ML and Bayes methods are approximately 12,000-21,000, comparable to estimates for modern humans, and do not support the notion of a dramatic size reduction in early human populations. Estimates published previously from the same data are several times larger and appear to be biased due to methodological deficiency. The divergence between humans and chimpanzees is dated at approximately 5.2 million years ago and the gorilla divergence 1.1-1.7 million years earlier. The analysis suggests that typical data sets contain useful information about the ancestral population sizes and that it is advantageous to analyze data of several species simultaneously.     

Recovering population parameters from a single gene genealogy: an unbiased estimator of the growth rate

We show that the number of lineages ancestral to a sample, as a function of time back into the past, which we call the number of lineages as a function of time (NLFT), is a nearly deterministic property of large-sample gene genealogies. We obtain analytic expressions for the NLFT for both constant-sized and exponentially growing populations. The low level of stochastic variation associated with the NLFT of a large sample suggests using the NLFT to make estimates of population parameters. Based on this, we develop a new computational method of inferring the size and growth rate of a population from a large sample of DNA sequences at a single locus. We apply our method first to a sample of 1,212 mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences from China, confirming a pattern of recent population growth previously identified using other techniques, but with much smaller confidence intervals for past population sizes due to the low variation of the NLFT. We further analyze a set of 63 mtDNA sequences from blue whales (BWs), concluding that the population grew in the past. This calls for reevaluation of previous studies that were based on the assumption that the BW population was fixed.     

Estimating ancestral population sizes and divergence times

This article presents a new method for jointly estimating species divergence times and ancestral population sizes. The method improves on previous ones by explicitly incorporating intragenic recombination, by utilizing orthologous sequence data from closely related species, and by using a maximum-likelihood framework. The latter allows for efficient use of the available information and provides a way of assessing how much confidence we should place in the estimates. I apply the method to recently collected intergenic sequence data from humans and the great apes. The results suggest that the human-chimpanzee ancestral population size was four to seven times larger than the current human effective population size and that the current human effective population size is slightly >10,000. These estimates are similar to previous ones, and they appear relatively insensitive to assumptions about the recombination rates or mutation rates across loci.     

A simple method of removing the effect of a bottleneck and unequal population sizes on pairwise genetic distances

In this paper, we derive the expectation of two popular genetic distances under a model of pure population fission allowing for unequal population sizes. Under the model, we show that conventional genetic distances are not proportional to the divergence time and generally overestimate it due to unequal genetic drift and to a bottleneck effect at the divergence time. This bias cannot be totally removed even if the present population sizes are known. Instead, we present a method to estimate the divergence times between populations which is based on the average number of nucleotide differences within and between populations. The method simultaneously estimates the divergence time, the ancestral population size and the relative sizes of the derived populations. A simulation study revealed that this method is essentially unbiased and that it leads to better estimates than traditional approaches for a very wide range of parameter values. Simulations also indicated that moderate population growth after divergence has little effect on the estimates of all three estimated parameters. An application of our method to a comparison of humans and chimpanzee mitochondrial DNA diversity revealed that common chimpanzees have a significantly larger female population size than humans.     

Calibrating a molecular clock from phylogeographic data: moments and likelihood estimators

Abstract We present moments and likelihood methods that estimate a DNA substitution rate from a group of closely related sister species pairs separated at an assumed time, and we test these methods with simulations. The methods also estimate ancestral population size and can test whether there is a significant difference among the ancestral population sizes of the sister species pairs. Estimates presented in the literature often ignore the ancestral coalescent prior to speciation and therefore should be biased upward. The simulations show that both methods yield accurate estimates given sample sizes of five or more species pairs and that better likelihood estimates are obtained if there is no significant difference among ancestral population sizes. The model presented here indicates that the larger than expected variation found in multitaxa datasets can be explained by variation in the ancestral coalescence and the Poisson mutation process. In this context, observed variation can often be accounted for by variation in ancestral population sizes rather than invoking variation in other parameters, such as divergence time or mutation rate. The methods are applied to data from two groups of species pairs (sea urchins and Alpheus snapping shrimp) that are thought to have separated by the rise of Panama three million years ago.     

Reconstructing the Indian origin and dispersal of the European Roma: a maternal genetic perspective

Previous genetic, anthropological and linguistic studies have shown that Roma (Gypsies) constitute a founder population dispersed throughout Europe whose origins might be traced to the Indian subcontinent. Linguistic and anthropological evidence point to Indo-Aryan ethnic groups from North-western India as the ancestral parental population of Roma. Recently, a strong genetic hint supporting this theory came from a study of a private mutation causing primary congenital glaucoma. In the present study, complete mitochondrial control sequences of Iberian Roma and previously published maternal lineages of other European Roma were analyzed in order to establish the genetic affinities among Roma groups, determine the degree of admixture with neighbouring populations, infer the migration routes followed since the first arrival to Europe, and survey the origin of Roma within the Indian subcontinent. Our results show that the maternal lineage composition in the Roma groups follows a pattern of different migration routes, with several founder effects, and low effective population sizes along their dispersal. Our data allowed the confirmation of a North/West migration route shared by Polish, Lithuanian and Iberian Roma. Additionally, eleven Roma founder lineages were identified and degrees of admixture with host populations were estimated. Finally, the comparison with an extensive database of Indian sequences allowed us to identify the Punjab state, in North-western India, as the putative ancestral homeland of the European Roma, in agreement with previous linguistic and anthropological studies.     

Damage and repair of ancient DNA

Under certain conditions small amounts of DNA can survive for long periods of time and can be used as polymerase chain reaction (PCR) substrates for the study of phylogenetic relationships and population genetics of extinct plants and animals, including hominids. Because of extensive DNA degradation, these studies are limited to species that lived within the past 10(4)-10(5) years (Late Pleistocene), although DNA sequences from 10(6) years have been reported. Ancient DNA (aDNA) has been used to study phylogenetic relationships of protists, fungi, algae, plants, and higher eukaryotes such as extinct horses, cave bears, the marsupial wolf, the moa, and Neanderthal. In the past few years, this technology has been extended to the study of infectious disease in ancient Egyptian and South American mummies, the dietary habits of ancient animals, and agricultural practices and population dynamics of early native Americans. Hence, ancient DNA contains information pertinent to numerous fields of study including evolution, population genetics, ecology, climatology, medicine, archeology, and behavior. The major obstacles to the study of aDNA are its extremely low yield, contamination with modern DNA, and extensive degradation. In the course of this review, we will discuss the current aDNA literature describing the importance of aDNA studies as they relate to important biological questions and the difficulties associated with extracting useful information from highly degraded and damaged substrates derived from limited sources. In addition, we will present some of our own preliminary and published data on mechanisms of DNA degradation and some speculative thoughts on strategies for repair and restoration of aDNA.     

Robust Estimates of Divergence Times and Selection with a Poisson Random Field Model: A Case Study of Comparative Phylogeographic Data

Mutation frequencies can be modeled as a Poisson random field (PRF) to estimate speciation times and the degree of selection on newly arisen mutations. This approach provides a quantitative theory for comparing intraspecific polymorphism with interspecific divergence in the presence of selection and can be used to estimate population genetic parameters. Although the original PRF model has been extended to more general biological settings to make statistical inference about selection and divergence among model organisms, it has not been incorporated into phylogeographic studies that focus on estimating population genetic parameters for nonmodel organisms. Here, we modified a recently developed time-dependent PRF model to independently estimate genetic parameters from a nuclear and mitochondrial DNA data set of 22 sister pairs of birds that have diverged across a biogeographic barrier. We found that species that inhabit humid habitats had more recent divergence times and larger effective population sizes than those that inhabit drier habitats, and divergence time estimated from the PRF model were similar to estimates from a coalescent species-tree approach. Selection coefficients were higher in sister pairs that inhabited drier habitats than in those in humid habitats, but overall the mitochondrial DNA was under weak selection. Our study indicates that PRF models are useful for estimating various population genetic parameters and serve as a framework for incorporating estimates of selection into comparative phylogeographic studies.     

Estimating Ancestral Population Parameters

The expected numbers of different categories of polymorphic sites are derived for two related models of population history: the isolation model, in which an ancestral population splits into two descendents, and the size-change model, in which a single population undergoes an instantaneous change in size. For the isolation model, the observed numbers of shared, fixed, and exclusive polymorphic sites are used to estimate the relative sizes of the three populations, ancestral plus two descendent, as well as the time of the split. For the size-change model, the numbers of sites segregating at particular frequencies in the sample are used to estimate the relative sizes of the ancestral and descendent populations plus the time the change took place. Parameters are estimated by choosing values that most closely equate expectations with observations. Computer simulations show that current and historical population parameters can be estimated accurately. The methods are applied to DNA data from two species of Drosophila and to some human mitochondrial DNA sequences.     

Testing multiregionality of modern human origins

In order to examine the possibility of multiple founding populations of anatomically modern Homo sapiens, we collected DNA sequence data from 10 X-chromosomal regions, 5 autosomal regions, and 1 Y-chromosomal region, in addition to mitochondrial DNA. Except for five regions which are genealogically uninformative and two other regions for which chimpanzee orthologs are not available, the ancestral sequence and population for each of the remaining regions were successfully inferred. Of these 10 ancestral sequences, 9 occurred in Africa and only 1 occurred in Asia during the Pleistocene. Computer simulation was carried out to quantify the multiregional hypothesis based solely on the premise that there was more than one founding population in the Pleistocene. Allowing the breeding size to vary among the founding populations, the hypothesis may account for the observed African ancestry in 90% of the genomic regions. However, it is required that the founding population in Africa was much larger than that outside Africa. Likelihood estimates of the breeding sizes in the founding populations were more than 9,000 in Africa and less than 1,000 in outside of Africa, although these estimates can be much less biased at the 1% significance level. If the number of African ancestral sequences further increases as more data accumulate in other genomic regions, the conclusion of a single founding population of modern H. sapiens is inevitable.