Linking warming effects on phenology,demography, and range expansion in a migratory bird population

Phenological changes in response to climate change have been recorded in many taxa, but the population‐level consequences of these changes are largely unknown. If phenological change influences demography, it may underpin the changes in range size and distribution that have been associated with climate change in many species. Over the last century, Icelandic black‐tailed godwits (Limosa limosa islandica) have increased 10‐fold in numbers, and their breeding range has expanded throughout lowland Iceland, but the environmental and demographic drivers of this expansion remain unknown. Here, we explore the potential for climate‐driven shifts in phenology to influence demography and range expansion. In warmer springs, Icelandic black‐tailed godwits lay their clutches earlier, resulting in advances in hatching dates in those years. Early hatching is beneficial as population‐wide tracking of marked individuals shows that chick recruitment to the adult population is greater for early hatched individuals. Throughout the last century, this population has expanded into progressively colder breeding areas in which hatch dates are later, but temperatures have increased throughout Iceland since the 1960s. Using these established relationships between temperature, hatching dates and recruitment, we show that these warming trends have the potential to have fueled substantial increases in recruitment throughout Iceland, and thus to have contributed to local population growth and expansion across the breeding range. The demographic consequences of temperature‐mediated phenological changes, such as the advances in lay dates and increased recruitment associated with early hatching reported here, may therefore be key processes in driving population size and range changes in response to climate change.     

Impact of climate change and prey abundance on nesting success of a top predator, the goshawk

Contemporary research has documented a large number of shifts in spring phenology and changes in distribution range although the average spring temperatures have increased by only 0.3–0.6 °C over the past 100 years. Generally, earlier breeding birds have larger clutch sizes, and the advancing spring could thus potentially increase breeding success. Shifts in spring phenology can, however, be crucial for bird reproduction, and mistiming the breeding event may even have negative consequences for population development. Our aim was to explore how weather and prey abundance relates to the breeding performance of a north European top predator, the northern goshawk Accipiter gentilis. Our nationwide dataset from Finland, spanning the period 1989–2004, shows that ambient weather has a greater impact on the timing and success of breeding than the density of grouse Tetraonidae, the main prey of goshawks. Higher early spring temperatures were associated with advancing hatching date of goshawks. Correspondingly, grouse density and temperature during laying and brooding were positively associated with brood size, while precipitation showed a negative connection. Applying our models to a future scenario of climate warming, combined with a 50 % reduction in grouse density, suggests that average breeding dates will advance only 2.5 days and average breeding success would remain the same. Notably, breeding success was not spatially equal throughout Finland, as northern and eastern populations suffered most from declining grouse densities. The observed pattern is thus the opposite to what is expected from a population situated at the northern edge of its distribution range, and thus may help to understand why populations may not increase at the northern edge of their thermal distribution due to climate change.     

Looking into the past – the reaction of three grouse species to climate change over the last million years using whole genome sequences

Tracking past population fluctuations can give insight into current levels of genetic variation present within species. Analysing population dynamics over larger timescales can be aligned to known climatic changes to determine the response of species to varying environments. Here, we applied the Pairwise Sequentially Markovian Coalescent (psmc ) model to infer past population dynamics of three widespread grouse species; black grouse, willow grouse and rock ptarmigan. This allowed the tracking of the effective population size (N_e) of all three species beyond 1 Mya, revealing that (i) early Pleistocene cooling (~2.5 Mya) caused an increase in the willow grouse and rock ptarmigan populations, (ii) the mid‐Brunhes event (~430 kya) and following climatic oscillations decreased the N_e of willow grouse and rock ptarmigan, but increased the N_e of black grouse and (iii) all three species reacted differently to the last glacial maximum (LGM) – black grouse increased prior to it, rock ptarmigan experienced a severe bottleneck and willow grouse was maintained at large population size. We postulate that the varying psmc signal throughout the LGM depicts only the local history of the species. Nevertheless, the large population fluctuations in willow grouse and rock ptarmigan indicate that both species are opportunistic breeders while black grouse tracks the climatic changes more slowly and is maintained at lower N_e. Our results highlight the usefulness of the psmc approach in investigating species’ reaction to climate change in the deep past, but also that caution should be taken in drawing general conclusions about the recent past.     

Past and potential future population dynamics of three grouse species using ecological and whole genome coalescent modeling

Studying demographic history of species provides insight into how the past has shaped the current levels of overall biodiversity and genetic composition of species, but also how these species may react to future perturbations. Here we investigated the demographic history of the willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus), rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta), and black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) through the Late Pleistocene using two complementary methods and whole genome data. Species distribution modeling (SDM) allowed us to estimate the total range size during the Last Interglacial (LIG) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) as well as to indicate potential population subdivisions. Pairwise Sequentially Markovian Coalescent (PSMC) allowed us to assess fluctuations in effective population size across the same period. Additionally, we used SDM to forecast the effect of future climate change on the three species over the next 50 years. We found that SDM predicts the largest range size for the cold‐adapted willow grouse and rock ptarmigan during the LGM. PSMC captured intraspecific population dynamics within the last glacial period, such that the willow grouse and rock ptarmigan showed multiple bottlenecks signifying recolonization events following the termination of the LGM. We also see signals of population subdivision during the last glacial period in the black grouse, but more data are needed to strengthen this hypothesis. All three species are likely to experience range contractions under future warming, with the strongest effect on willow grouse and rock ptarmigan due to their limited potential for northward expansion. Overall, by combining these two modeling approaches, we have provided a multifaceted examination of the biogeography of these species and how they have responded to climate change in the past. These results help us understand how cold‐adapted species may respond to future climate changes.     

Adverse effects of agricultural intensification and climate change on breeding habitat quality of Black‐tailed Godwits Limosa l. limosa in the Netherlands

Agricultural intensification is one of the main drivers of farmland bird declines, but effects on birds may be confounded with those of climate change. Here we examine the effects of intensification and climate change on a grassland breeding wader, the Black‐tailed Godwit Limosa l. limosa, in the Netherlands. Population decline has been linked to poor chick survival which, in turn, has been linked to available foraging habitat. Foraging habitat of the nidifugous chicks consists of uncut grasslands that provide cover and arthropod prey. Conservation measures such as agri‐environment schemes aim to increase the availability of chick foraging habitat but have not yet been successful in halting the decline. Field observations show that since the early 1980s, farmers advanced their first seasonal mowing or grazing date by 15 days, whereas Godwits did not advance their hatching date. Ringing data indicate that between 1945 and 1975 hatching dates advanced by about 2 weeks in parallel with the advancement of median mowing dates. Surprisingly, temperature sums at median mowing and hatching dates suggest that while the agricultural advancement before 1980 was largely due to agricultural intensification, after 1980 it was largely due to climate change. Examining arthropod abundance in a range of differently managed grasslands revealed that chick food abundance was little affected but that food accessibility in intensively used tall swards may be problematic for chicks. Our results suggest that, compared with 25 years ago, nowadays (1) a much higher proportion of clutches and chicks are exposed to agricultural activities, (2) there is little foraging habitat left when chicks hatch and (3) because of climate change, the vegetation in the remaining foraging habitat is taller and denser and therefore of lower quality. This indicates that for agri‐environment schemes to make a difference, they should not only be implemented in a larger percentage of the breeding area than the current maxima of 20–30% but they should also include measures that create more open, accessible swards.     

Coupling in goshawk and grouse population dynamics in Finland

Different prey species can vary in their significance to a particular predator. In the simplest case, the total available density or biomass of a guild of several prey species might be most relevant to the predator, but behavioural and ecological traits of different prey species can alter the picture. We studied the population dynamics of a predator–prey setting in Finland by fitting first-order log-linear vector autoregressive models to long-term count data from active breeding sites of the northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis; 1986–2009), and to three of its main prey species (1983–2010): hazel grouse (Bonasa bonasia), black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) and capercaillie (T. urogallus), which belong to the same forest grouse guild and show synchronous fluctuations. Our focus was on modelling the relative significance of prey species and estimating the tightness of predator–prey coupling in order to explain the observed population dynamics, simultaneously accounting for effects of density dependence, winter severity and spatial correlation. We established nine competing candidate models, where different combinations of grouse species affect goshawk dynamics with lags of 1–3 years. Effects of goshawk on grouse were investigated using one model for each grouse species. The most parsimonious model for goshawk indicated separate density effects of hazel grouse and black grouse, and different effects with lags of 1 and 3 years. Capercaillie showed no effects on goshawk populations, while the effect of goshawk on grouse was clearly negative only in capercaillie. Winter severity had significant adverse effects on goshawk and hazel grouse populations. In combination, large-scale goshawk–grouse population dynamics are coupled, but there are no clear mutual effects for any of the individual guild members. In a broader context, our study suggests that pooling data on closely related, synchronously fluctuating prey species can result in the loss of relevant information, rather than increased model parsimony.     

Hatching order affects offspring growth,survival and adult dominance in the joint‐laying Pukeko Porphyrio melanotus melanotus

In birds with asynchronous hatching, hatching order is an important factor in determining offspring phenotype. Many previous studies have demonstrated that later‐hatched offspring show reduced growth and survival during development. However, few studies have followed individuals from hatching to adulthood to test whether the effects of hatching order persist into later life. Here, we explore patterns of hatching order and fitness‐related traits in the Pukeko Porphyrio melanotus melanotus, a cooperatively breeding bird that lives in stable social groups that form linear dominance hierarchies. Pukeko groups sometimes contain two breeding females that lay eggs in the same nest (joint‐laying). Thus, competition between nest‐mates can influence the relative fitness of each laying female. We show that in both single‐clutch and joint‐clutch nests, earlier‐hatched Pukeko chicks grow faster and survive better than later‐hatched brood‐mates. Moreover, earlier‐hatched chicks achieve higher dominance ranks as adults, making this study one of the first to find a relationship between hatching order and adult dominance in wild birds. Finally, we show that in groups with two breeding females, the chicks of the primary female hatch earlier than the chicks of the secondary female. As a result, the offspring of the primary female may be at a competitive advantage, which could have important implications for social dynamics in this species.     

Prenatal environmental effects match offspring begging to parental provisioning

The solicitation behaviours performed by dependent young are under selection from the environment created by their parents, as well as wider ecological conditions. Here we show how mechanisms acting before hatching enable canary offspring to adapt their begging behaviour to a variable post-hatching world. Cross-fostering experiments revealed that canary nestling begging intensity is positively correlated with the provisioning level of their own parents (to foster chicks). When we experimentally increased food quality before and during egg laying, mothers showed higher faecal androgen levels and so did their nestlings, even when they were cross-fostered before hatching to be reared by foster mothers that had been exposed to a standard regime of food quality. Higher parental androgen levels were correlated with greater levels of post-hatching parental provisioning and (we have previously shown) increased faecal androgens in chicks were associated with greater begging intensity. We conclude that androgens mediate environmentally induced plasticity in the expression of both parental and offspring traits, which remain correlated as a result of prenatal effects, probably acting within the egg. Offspring can thus adapt their begging intensity to variable family and ecological environments.     

Maternal yolk androgens stimulate territorial behaviour in black-headed gull chicks

Avian eggs contain substantial amounts of maternal androgens. The concentrations of these yolk androgens are affected by the maternal environment, such as the level of social competition, parasite exposure or food conditions. Since yolk androgens have been shown to affect a wide array of offspring traits, they may adjust the chicks to the expected post-hatching environment, but experimental evidence is still scarce. We investigate in colonial breeding black-headed gulls whether high concentrations of yolk androgens, such as those found in environments with high numbers of social interactions, facilitate aggressiveness and territorial behaviour of the chicks. Black-headed gulls are highly suitable for this, as the semi-precocial chicks defend the natal territory and food against intruders. We manipulated yolk androgen concentrations and investigated their role in both within-nest and between-nest aggression. We found that chicks hatching from androgen-treated eggs defended the natal territory more often than their nest mates from control eggs, without increasing sibling aggression. This suggests that variation in yolk androgen concentrations in relation to the social environment of the mother may indeed allow adjustment of the offspring''s behaviour to the expected frequency of territorial interactions with conspecifics post-hatching.     

How reliable are harvesting data for analyses of spatio‐temporal population dynamics?

Harvest data are commonly used as proxy for count data, especially in studies of long‐term temporal and spatial patterns of population fluctuations. However, usually the concurrence of the conclusions based on different types of data is impossible to verify due to the lack of count data. Here, we use annual (1964–2004) harvest and population census data for capercaillie, black grouse and hazel grouse from 14 game management districts covering Finland, and demonstrate some mismatch in the information that these data sets provide. Overall, linear regressions of annual harvest against population count give a reasonable fit, but the slopes are less than 1 in every species. Harvest bags have been proportionally larger in north and eastern Finland than in southwestern Finland, with marked species‐specific differences. Considering population variation, the CV% in the census data (30–50%) is consistently smaller than it is in the harvest data (60–70%). Most importantly, conclusions on the spatio‐temporal patterns of the population dynamics are different if based on harvest rather than count data. In capercaillie, synchrony decreases faster with distance according to the harvest data, while in black grouse and hazel grouse the census data show the steeper decline. In addition, the autocorrelation coefficients in the census time series are higher in capercaillie and black grouse than in harvest data, but in hazel grouse the opposite is true. Finally, the parameter estimates for a second order autoregressive model using different data sets differ, and these differences are species‐specific. Despite the fact that annual harvest is a positive and linear function of annual grouse population density, the pattern of population dynamics derived from the bag data is different from that shown by the census data. This result urges caution in using wildlife bag data as reliable indices of population dynamics. deceased August 2008.     

Evaluating spatially explicit viability of a declining ruffed grouse population

Species associated with early successional habitats have experienced dramatic declines in the eastern United States as a result of land use changes and human disruption of natural disturbance regimes. Consequently, active management is required to create early successional habitat and promote plant and animal communities that depend on periodic forest disturbance. Ruffed grouse (Bonasa umbellus) depend on recently disturbed forest habitat, and have experienced dramatic declines over the last half-century. Although ruffed grouse are extensively studied, little effort has been made to link population dynamics with habitat management at landscape scales. We used stochastic, spatially explicit population models that combined landscape conditions derived from a Geographic Information System with demographic data, and applied the model to a declining ruffed grouse population in Rhode Island, USA. We identified vital rates that influence ruffed grouse population dynamics using baseline models constructed with current demographic rates and landscape conditions, and assessed the effect of landscape-scale forest management alternatives on population persistence by running multiple management simulations. Baseline models typically predicted population decline, and we concluded that vital rates (survival and recruitment) had a greater influence on population persistence than did dispersal capability, carrying capacity, or initial population size. Management simulations predicted greater population persistence under a scenario where high-quality habitat was provided in fewer large blocks as opposed to many small blocks, and the rate at which we allowed ruffed grouse to colonize newly created habitat had a substantial impact on management success. Populations of ruffed grouse in the eastern United States are likely to continue to decline given current disturbance regimes, and our work provides a link between ruffed grouse demography and landscape-scale habitat conditions to support management decisions. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Relaxed selection when you least expect it: why declining bird populations might fail to respond to phenological mismatches

Ongoing climate change threatens to cause mismatches between the phenology of many organisms and their resources. Populations of migratory birds may need to undergo ‘evolutionary rescue’ if resource availability moves to earlier dates in the year, as shifted arrival dates at the breeding grounds may be required for persistence under new environmental schedules. Here we show a counterintuitive process that can reduce the strength of selection for early arrival when the resource peaks earlier. This happens when two processes combine to determine selection for early arrival: breeding success is higher if a bird does not miss the resource peak, but this occurs together with a ‘zero‐sum game’ where birds acquire good territories ahead of their competitors if they arrive early. The latter process can relax if the population has experienced a recent decline. Therefore, climate change can have two opposing effects: its direct effect on breeding success strengthens selection for early arrival, but this combines with an indirect effect of relaxed selection due to population declines, if territoriality is a significant determinant of population dynamics and fitness. We show that the latter process can predominate, and this can cause a failure for a population to adapt to a new schedule under changing environmental conditions.     

Ecological mismatches are moderated by local conditions for two populations of a long‐distance migratory bird

Ecological mismatches between reproductive events and seasonal resource peaks are frequently proposed to be a key driver of population dynamics resulting from global climate change. Many local populations are experiencing reduced reproductive success as a consequence of mismatches, but few mismatches have led to species‐level population declines. To better understand this apparent paradox, we investigated the breeding phenology and chick survival of two disjunct populations of Hudsonian godwits Limosa haemastica breeding at Churchill, Manitoba and Beluga River, Alaska. Only one population experienced a mismatch: godwits bred nearly one week after the onset of the invertebrate peak at Churchill because of asynchronous climatic change occurring throughout their annual cycle. However, chicks were not uniformly affected by the mismatch — growth rates and survival of young chicks were not correlated with invertebrate abundance, but older chicks tended to suffer lower survival rates on days of low invertebrate abundance. Ecological mismatches thus resulted in a complex array of consequences, but nonetheless contributed to reductions in chick survival. In contrast, godwits at Beluga River hatched their chicks just before the invertebrate peak, such that the period of highest energetic need coincided with the period of highest invertebrate abundance. As a result, growth rates and survival of godwit chicks were unaffected by invertebrate abundance. Godwits at Beluga River were able to properly time their reproduction because of predictable rates of climatic change and strong selection imposed by high predation on late‐hatched chicks. Taken together, our results suggest that population‐specific, local‐scale selection pressures play a critical role in determining the degree and severity of ecological mismatches. The potential for global climate change to induce species‐level population declines may therefore be mediated by the spatial variation in the selection pressures acting across a species’ range.     

Changes in the blood and the bone marrow picture of the Pharaoh quail (Coturnix coturnix Pharaoh) chicks as a manifestation of adaptation to postembryonal life

1. The aim was determination of the rate of adaptation of the respiratory and defence functions of the blood and bone marrow of quail chicks. 2. In the early post-hatching period, enhanced haemoglobin synthesis is the mechanism adapting the bird to the rich oxygen conditions beyond the egg. 3. In 2-week-old chicks, the increased respiratory function of the blood is associated with a parallel rise of the erythrocyte count and haemoglobin content. 4. The defence mechanisms of the chick in the first days after hatching are mainly connected with a high content of heterophilic granulocytes and in older chicks with a rising lymphocyte count.     

Activation of the serotonergic system in chick spinal cord during hatching.

The objectives of the present study were to determine the levels of serotonin (5-HT), its major catabolic metabolite, 5-hydroxyindoleacetic acid (5-HIAA), and norepinephrine (NE) in chick spinal cord before, during, and after hatching and also to determine if changes in the levels of these chemicals are directly related to the hatching behavior. The levels of 5-HT, 5-HIAA, and NE were measured by high performance liquid chromatography with electrochemical detection in whole spinal cords of 20-day-old "pre-hatching" embryos, 21-day-old "normal hatching" embryos, 0-day-old "post-hatching" chicks, and 0-day-old "glass egg hatching" chicks. NE was measured but no significant differences were found in NE levels among experimental groups. The concentration of 5-HT was elevated in chick embryo spinal cords during normal hatching compared to pre-hatching embryos and post-hatching chicks. The concentration of 5-HIAA was elevated during and after normal hatching compared to pre-hatching embryos. However, neither 5-HT nor 5-HIAA levels were found to be elevated in chick spinal cords during glass egg hatching compared to pre-hatching embryos or post-hatching chicks. Therefore, there appears to be an activation of the serotonergic system in chick spinal cord related to the specific event of hatching but this activation is not directly related to the movements common to both hatching and glass egg hatching.     

Goshawk predation during winter, spring and summer in a boreal forest area of central Sweden

Predation by goshawks was studied in a central Swedish boreal forest area. Data were collected in winter (January–February) 1977-81 by tracking radio-tagged goshawks, and in the breeding season (April–July) by collecting prey remains at the nest. In the breeding season birds dominated the prey, amounting to 86% of prey number and 91% of prey biomass. Wood pigeon Columba palumbus , black grouse Tetrao tetrix , hooded crow Corvus corone cornix and jay Garrulus glandarius accounted for more than 50% of the prey animals, whereas capercaillie Tetrao urogallus and black grouse accounted for more than 50% of prey biomass. There was no functional response to black grouse density fluctuations. Every year goshawks killed significantly more females than males of both capercaillie and black grouse, due to high vulnerability of the grouse hens while laying and incubating. It was estimated that during spring and early summer goshawk predation removed 25% of the female, and 14% of the male black grouse population. In winter squirrel was the dominating prey, both in terms of number (79%) and weight (56%). The proportion of squirrel in the diet was equally high both in winters of low and high squirrel density. The high proportion of squirrel in the winterdiet, as compared to the breeding season, is believed to be due to squirrels having to accept an increased predation risk in winter, in order to feed efficiently enough.     

Developmental changes of the content of acetyl-CoA carboxylase mRNA in chicken liver

Utilizing RNA blot hybridization and immunoblotting techniques, the changes of the hepatic contents of acetyl-CoA carboxylase mRNA and of the enzyme protein in growing chicks have been investigated. In the post-hatching period, the hepatic mRNA level markedly increased at least 70-fold when compared to that before hatching. This increase was not observed in chicks receiving no diet. These changes were closely paralleled with the rise of the hepatic content of acetyl-CoA carboxylase protein in chicks up to 10 days old. Neither the acetyl-CoA carboxylase mRNA level nor the enzyme quantity significantly changed in heart. It is concluded from these results that the developmental regulation of acetyl-CoA carboxylase in the post-hatching period of chicks is tissue specific and occurs primarily at a pretranslational step. The content of acetyl-CoA carboxylase mRNA in adult chicken liver was low, which is comparable to those in embryos at 3 days before hatching and chicks at hatching day. Although acetyl-CoA carboxylase mRNA was detected in adult chicken brain, heart, lung, kidney, uropygial gland, spleen, testis, and chest muscle as well as liver, the mRNA level in these tissues was much lower than that in liver of growing chicks.     

Seasonal declines in reproductive success of the common tern Sterna hirundo: timing or parental quality?

Reproductive success declines over the course of the breeding season in many bird species. Two categories of hypothesis have been evoked to explain this decline. The “timing” hypothesis suggests that seasonal declines in breeding success are attributable to the date of laying. The “parental quality” hypothesis suggests that seasonal declines result from the fact that young, inexperienced, or low quality birds breed later in the season. To evaluate the relative importance of timing and parental quality, egg exchanges and removals were used to manipulate hatching dates of common terns Sterna hirundo. Indices of quality, attendance, provisioning rates, and reproductive success of birds in three experimental groups (delayed hatch pairs, advanced hatch pairs, and pairs induced to relay) were compared to those of date‐matched controls. Pairs that hatched chicks early raised more chicks than pairs hatching chicks late in the season, regardless of initial laying date. This suggests that hatching chicks early is advantageous in itself. Our results, however, also support the parental quality hypothesis. There was a significant negative relationship between natural laying date and fledging success, independent of hatching date. Differences in chick growth and survival suggest that higher quality adults may be able to compensate for the disadvantages of late hatching dates and achieve similar reproductive success to that of pairs hatching chicks early. We found that pairs hatching chicks late in the season were subject to more incidents of kleptoparasitism than those hatching chicks early. This may be a proximate factor contributing to seasonal declines in reproductive success for common terns, although such a mechanism would not be likely in non‐colonial species. Failure to control for egg quality may have biased the results of some prior egg exchange experiments. Additionally, altered cost of incubation may be an unavoidable confounding factor in studies designed to manipulate timing of breeding.     

Spatial dynamics in breeding performance of a predator: the connection to prey availability

Using nationwide long-term data on goshawk and grouse populations in Finland we study the spatial dynamics of the numbers of breeding northern goshawk ( Accipiter gentilis ) pairs, goshawk brood size and offspring sex ratio and their connection to the abundance of grouse. Our first large-scale data comprise of observations on goshawk nests during 1986–2001 pooled to 21 different regions. The second set are annual (1989–1998) observations of brood size and offspring sex ratio (females over the sum of females and males) in goshawk nests all over the country, aggregated to 50 km grid level (n=28 grid units). The third set comprises counts (1989–2001) of four species of woodland grouse, split to adults and juveniles, also given in the same 50 km grid units. Using these data, we show that the annual numbers of northern goshawk nests in the different regions fluctuate in synchrony. Synchrony is also found in long-term fluctuations of northern goshawk brood size and offspring sex ratio. Moreover, synchrony is found in annual numbers of grouse juveniles and adults, the main prey for the northern goshawk. In the brood size and offspring sex ratio of the goshawk, as well as in the annual numbers of grouse juveniles and adults the degree of synchrony falls off with increasing distance. However, only in sex ratios and in grouse dynamics are the slopes of synchrony vs distance roughly matching. We also found that sex ratio either vs grouse juveniles or grouse adults has a more matching spatial dimension (50 km radius) that sex ratio vs brood size. These observation lend support to the hypothesis that goshawk offspring sex ratio and grouse abundance are interconnected. Despite the reason, consequences of spatial coupling in sex ratio could have repercussions on other life history events.     

Climate change is predicted to cause population collapse in a cooperative breeder

It has been suggested that animals may have evolved cooperative breeding strategies in response to extreme climatic conditions. Climate change, however, may push species beyond their ability to cope with extreme climates, and reduce the group sizes in cooperatively breeding species to a point where populations are no longer viable. Predicting the impact of future climates on these species is challenging as modelling the impact of climate change on their population dynamics requires information on both group- and individual-level responses to climatic conditions. Using a single-sex individual-based model incorporating demographic responses to ambient temperature in an endangered species, the African wild dog Lycaon pictus, we show that there is a threshold temperature above which populations of the species are predicted to collapse. For simulated populations with carrying capacities equivalent to the median size of real-world populations (nine packs), extinction risk increases once temperatures exceed those predicted in the best-case climate warming scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 2.6). The threshold is higher (between RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0) for larger simulated populations (30 packs), but 84% of real-world populations number <30 packs. Simulated populations collapsed because, at high ambient temperatures, juvenile survival was so low that packs were no longer recruiting enough individuals to persist, leading them to die out. This work highlights the importance of social dynamics in determining impacts of climatic variables on social species, and the critical role that recruitment can play in driving population-level impacts of climate change. Population models parameterised on long-term data are essential for predicting future population viability under climate change.