Biotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of Vulnerability to Climate Change

Metrics that synthesize the complex effects of climate change are essential tools for mapping future threats to biodiversity and predicting which species are likely to adapt in place to new climatic conditions, disperse and establish in areas with newly suitable climate, or face the prospect of extirpation. The most commonly used of such metrics is the velocity of climate change, which estimates the speed at which species must migrate over the earth’s surface to maintain constant climatic conditions. However, “analog-based” velocities, which represent the actual distance to where analogous climates will be found in the future, may provide contrasting results to the more common form of velocity based on local climate gradients. Additionally, whereas climatic velocity reflects the exposure of organisms to climate change, resultant biotic effects are dependent on the sensitivity of individual species as reflected in part by their climatic niche width. This has motivated development of biotic velocity, a metric which uses data on projected species range shifts to estimate the velocity at which species must move to track their climatic niche. We calculated climatic and biotic velocity for the Western Hemisphere for 1961–2100, and applied the results to example ecological and conservation planning questions, to demonstrate the potential of such analog-based metrics to provide information on broad-scale patterns of exposure and sensitivity. Geographic patterns of biotic velocity for 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians differed from climatic velocity in north temperate and boreal regions. However, both biotic and climatic velocities were greatest at low latitudes, implying that threats to equatorial species arise from both the future magnitude of climatic velocities and the narrow climatic tolerances of species in these regions, which currently experience low seasonal and interannual climatic variability. Biotic and climatic velocity, by approximating lower and upper bounds on migration rates, can inform conservation of species and locally-adapted populations, respectively, and in combination with backward velocity, a function of distance to a source of colonizers adapted to a site’s future climate, can facilitate conservation of diversity at multiple scales in the face of climate change.     

Local Variability Mediates Vulnerability of Trout Populations to Land Use and Climate Change

Land use and climate change occur simultaneously around the globe. Fully understanding their separate and combined effects requires a mechanistic understanding at the local scale where their effects are ultimately realized. Here we applied an individual-based model of fish population dynamics to evaluate the role of local stream variability in modifying responses of Coastal Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii) to scenarios simulating identical changes in temperature and stream flows linked to forest harvest, climate change, and their combined effects over six decades. We parameterized the model for four neighboring streams located in a forested headwater catchment in northwestern Oregon, USA with multi-year, daily measurements of stream temperature, flow, and turbidity (2007–2011), and field measurements of both instream habitat structure and three years of annual trout population estimates. Model simulations revealed that variability in habitat conditions among streams (depth, available habitat) mediated the effects of forest harvest and climate change. Net effects for most simulated trout responses were different from or less than the sum of their separate scenarios. In some cases, forest harvest countered the effects of climate change through increased summer flow. Climate change most strongly influenced trout (earlier fry emergence, reductions in biomass of older trout, increased biomass of young-of-year), but these changes did not consistently translate into reductions in biomass over time. Forest harvest, in contrast, produced fewer and less consistent responses in trout. Earlier fry emergence driven by climate change was the most consistent simulated response, whereas survival, growth, and biomass were inconsistent. Overall our findings indicate a host of local processes can strongly influence how populations respond to broad scale effects of land use and climate change.     

Assessing Mammal Exposure to Climate Change in the Brazilian Amazon

Human-induced climate change is considered a conspicuous threat to biodiversity in the 21^st century. Species’ response to climate change depends on their exposition, sensitivity and ability to adapt to novel climates. Exposure to climate change is however uneven within species’ range, so that some populations may be more at risk than others. Identifying the regions most exposed to climate change is therefore a first and pivotal step on determining species’ vulnerability across their geographic ranges. Here, we aimed at quantifying mammal local exposure to climate change across species’ ranges. We identified areas in the Brazilian Amazon where mammals will be critically exposed to non-analogue climates in the future with different variables predicted by 15 global circulation climate forecasts. We also built a null model to assess the effectiveness of the Amazon protected areas in buffering the effects of climate change on mammals, using an innovative and more realistic approach. We found that 85% of species are likely to be exposed to non-analogue climatic conditions in more than 80% of their ranges by 2070. That percentage is even higher for endemic mammals; almost all endemic species are predicted to be exposed in more than 80% of their range. Exposure patterns also varied with different climatic variables and seem to be geographically structured. Western and northern Amazon species are more likely to experience temperature anomalies while northeastern species will be more affected by rainfall abnormality. We also observed an increase in the number of critically-exposed species from 2050 to 2070. Overall, our results indicate that mammals might face high exposure to climate change and that protected areas will probably not be efficient enough to avert those impacts.     

Applying Climate Change Risk Management Tools to Integrate Streamflow Projections and Social Vulnerability

Ecosystems - Shifts in streamflow, due to future climate and land use change, may pose risks to nearby human communities. Projecting the spatial distribution and impacts of these risks requires...     

Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions

The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions.     

Indicators of UV Exposure in Corals and Their Relevance to Global Climate Change and Coral Bleaching

A compelling aspect of the deterioration of coral reefs is the phenomenon of coral bleaching. Through interactions with other factors such as sedimentation, pollution, and bacterial infection, bleaching can impact large areas of a reef with limited recovery, and it might be induced by a variety of stressors including temperature and salinity extremes, and ultraviolet light. Under conditions of ocean warming, often associated with calm and stratified waters, photobleaching of UV-absorb-ing chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) is increased, and penetration of both UV-B and UV-A is greatly enhanced. Indices of UV-specific effects in coral tissue are needed to test whether UV increases, associated with global climate change, are harmful to corals. To address this challenge, we have evaluated UV-specific effects in corals and have characterized factors that alter penetration of UV radiation over coral reefs. An immunoblotting assay was developed to examine UV-specific lesions (thymine dimers) in coral and zooxanthellae DNA. We observed dose-dependent increases of thymine dimers in coral (Porites porites var porites) exposed to artificial solar irradiance in a solar simulator, although effects were not strictly proportional. UV measurements were made in July 1999 at Eastern Sambo reef and nearby sites, including profiling along transects from reef to shore. Results of these analyses indicate that the coral at Eastern Sambo reef (at 3-4 meters) were receiving UV-B radiation that was equivalent to 25 to 30% of surface UV irradiance. However, the water just inside the reef in Hawk Channel (located closer to land) was considerably more opaque to UV. This water photobleached with loss of UV absorbance and fluorescence when it was exposed to simulated solar radiation. These results indicate that photobleaching of the DOM and transport of near-shore water out over the reefs might play a key role in controlling UV penetration to the reef surface.     

Climate Exposure of US National Parks in a New Era of Change

US national parks are challenged by climate and other forms of broad-scale environmental change that operate beyond administrative boundaries and in some instances are occurring at especially rapid rates. Here, we evaluate the climate change exposure of 289 natural resource parks administered by the US National Park Service (NPS), and ask which are presently (past 10 to 30 years) experiencing extreme (<5^th percentile or >95^th percentile) climates relative to their 1901–2012 historical range of variability (HRV). We consider parks in a landscape context (including surrounding 30 km) and evaluate both mean and inter-annual variation in 25 biologically relevant climate variables related to temperature, precipitation, frost and wet day frequencies, vapor pressure, cloud cover, and seasonality. We also consider sensitivity of findings to the moving time window of analysis (10, 20, and 30 year windows). Results show that parks are overwhelmingly at the extreme warm end of historical temperature distributions and this is true for several variables (e.g., annual mean temperature, minimum temperature of the coldest month, mean temperature of the warmest quarter). Precipitation and other moisture patterns are geographically more heterogeneous across parks and show greater variation among variables. Across climate variables, recent inter-annual variation is generally well within the range of variability observed since 1901. Moving window size has a measureable effect on these estimates, but parks with extreme climates also tend to exhibit low sensitivity to the time window of analysis. We highlight particular parks that illustrate different extremes and may facilitate understanding responses of park resources to ongoing climate change. We conclude with discussion of how results relate to anticipated future changes in climate, as well as how they can inform NPS and neighboring land management and planning in a new era of change.     

Thermal Reaction Norms and the Scale of Temperature Variation: Latitudinal Vulnerability of Intertidal Nacellid Limpets to Climate Change

The thermal reaction norms of 4 closely related intertidal Nacellid limpets, Antarctic (Nacella concinna), New Zealand (Cellana ornata), Australia (C. tramoserica) and Singapore (C. radiata), were compared across environments with different temperature magnitude, variability and predictability, to test their relative vulnerability to different scales of climate warming. Lethal limits were measured alongside a newly developed metric of “duration tenacity”, which was tested at different temperatures to calculate the thermal reaction norm of limpet adductor muscle fatigue. Except in C. tramoserica which had a wide optimum range with two break points, duration tenacity did not follow a typical aerobic capacity curve but was best described by a single break point at an optimum temperature. Thermal reaction norms were shifted to warmer temperatures in warmer environments; the optimum temperature for tenacity (T_opt) increased from 1.0°C (N. concinna) to 14.3°C (C. ornata) to 18.0°C (an average for the optimum range of C. tramoserica) to 27.6°C (C. radiata). The temperature limits for duration tenacity of the 4 species were most consistently correlated with both maximum sea surface temperature and summer maximum in situ habitat logger temperature. Tropical C. radiata, which lives in the least variable and most predictable environment, generally had the lowest warming tolerance and thermal safety margin (WT and TSM; respectively the thermal buffer of CT_max and T_opt over habitat temperature). However, the two temperate species, C. ornata and C. tramoserica, which live in a variable and seasonally unpredictable microhabitat, had the lowest TSM relative to in situ logger temperature. N. concinna which lives in the most variable, but seasonally predictable microhabitat, generally had the highest TSMs. Intertidal animals live at the highly variable interface between terrestrial and marine biomes and even small changes in the magnitude and predictability of their environment could markedly influence their future distributions.     

Tracking Nile Delta Vulnerability to Holocene Change

Understanding deltaic resilience in the face of Holocene climate change and human impacts is an important challenge for the earth sciences in characterizing the full range of present and future wetland responses to global warming. Here, we report an 8000-year mass balance record from the Nile Delta to reconstruct when and how this sedimentary basin has responded to past hydrological shifts. In a global Holocene context, the long-term decrease in Nile Delta accretion rates is consistent with insolation-driven changes in the ‘monsoon pacemaker’, attested throughout the mid-latitude tropics. Following the early to mid-Holocene growth of the Nile’s deltaic plain, sediment losses and pronounced erosion are first recorded after ~4000 years ago, the corollaries of falling sediment supply and an intensification of anthropogenic impacts from the Pharaonic period onwards. Against the backcloth of the Saharan ‘depeopling’, reduced river flow underpinned by a weakening of monsoonal precipitation appears to have been particularly conducive to the expansion of human activities on the delta by exposing productive floodplain lands for occupation and irrigation agriculture. The reconstruction suggests that the Nile Delta has a particularly long history of vulnerability to extreme events (e.g. floods and storms) and sea-level rise, although the present sediment-starved system does not have a direct Holocene analogue. This study highlights the importance of the world’s deltas as sensitive archives to investigate Holocene geosystem responses to climate change, risks and hazards, and societal interaction.     

Exposure of Primate Reservoir Hosts to Mosquito Vectors in Malaysian Borneo

EcoHealth - Several vector-borne pathogens of primates have potential for human spillover. An example is the simian malaria Plasmodium knowlesi which is now a major public health problem in...     

Suitable Days for Plant Growth Disappear under Projected Climate Change: Potential Human and Biotic Vulnerability

Ongoing climate change can alter conditions for plant growth, in turn affecting ecological and social systems. While there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical aspects of climate change, comprehensive analyses integrating climate, biological, and social sciences are less common. Here we use climate projections under alternative mitigation scenarios to show how changes in environmental variables that limit plant growth could impact ecosystems and people. We show that although the global mean number of days above freezing will increase by up to 7% by 2100 under “business as usual” (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5), suitable growing days will actually decrease globally by up to 11% when other climatic variables that limit plant growth are considered (i.e., temperature, water availability, and solar radiation). Areas in Russia, China, and Canada are projected to gain suitable plant growing days, but the rest of the world will experience losses. Notably, tropical areas could lose up to 200 suitable plant growing days per year. These changes will impact most of the world’s terrestrial ecosystems, potentially triggering climate feedbacks. Human populations will also be affected, with up to ~2,100 million of the poorest people in the world (~30% of the world’s population) highly vulnerable to changes in the supply of plant-related goods and services. These impacts will be spatially variable, indicating regions where adaptations will be necessary. Changes in suitable plant growing days are projected to be less severe under strong and moderate mitigation scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5), underscoring the importance of reducing emissions to avoid such disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and people.     

A Vulnerability Assessment of 300 Species in Florida: Threats from Sea Level Rise,Land Use,and Climate Change

Species face many threats, including accelerated climate change, sea level rise, and conversion and degradation of habitat from human land uses. Vulnerability assessments and prioritization protocols have been proposed to assess these threats, often in combination with information such as species rarity; ecological, evolutionary or economic value; and likelihood of success. Nevertheless, few vulnerability assessments or prioritization protocols simultaneously account for multiple threats or conservation values. We applied a novel vulnerability assessment tool, the Standardized Index of Vulnerability and Value, to assess the conservation priority of 300 species of plants and animals in Florida given projections of climate change, human land-use patterns, and sea level rise by the year 2100. We account for multiple sources of uncertainty and prioritize species under five different systems of value, ranging from a primary emphasis on vulnerability to threats to an emphasis on metrics of conservation value such as phylogenetic distinctiveness. Our results reveal remarkable consistency in the prioritization of species across different conservation value systems. Species of high priority include the Miami blue butterfly (Cyclargus thomasi bethunebakeri), Key tree cactus (Pilosocereus robinii), Florida duskywing butterfly (Ephyriades brunnea floridensis), and Key deer (Odocoileus virginianus clavium). We also identify sources of uncertainty and the types of life history information consistently missing across taxonomic groups. This study characterizes the vulnerabilities to major threats of a broad swath of Florida’s biodiversity and provides a system for prioritizing conservation efforts that is quantitative, flexible, and free from hidden value judgments.     

The Politics of Adaptation: Subsistence Livelihoods and Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Koyukon Athabascan Village of Ruby,Alaska

The concepts of vulnerability and adaptation have contributed to understanding human responses to climate change. However, analysis of the implications of the broader political context on adaptation has largely been absent. Through a case study of the subsistence livelihoods of Koyukon Athabascan people of Ruby Village, this paper examines the implications of adaptation to the social changes precipitated by colonization for the articulation of current responses to climate change. Semi-structured interviews, seasonal rounds, and land-use mapping conducted with 20 community experts indicate that subsistence livelihoods are of continued importance to the people of Ruby in spite of the dramatic social change. While adaptive responses demonstrate resilience, adaptation to one form of change can increase vulnerability to other kinds of perturbations. Research findings illustrate that a historical approach to adaptation can clarify the influence of the present political context on indigenous peoples’ responses to impacts of climate changes.     

Pre-adaptation of Arctic Plants to Climate Change*

Re-appraisal of high latitude ice cover during the Weichselian and the recent discovery of pre-Holocene plant communities in Novaya Zemlya and Northern Norway suggests that the contemporary Arctic flora may have had a longer time span in its occupation of high latitude sites than has hitherto been recognised. The present-day Arctic flora in some regions may therefore have derived at least some of its genetic inheritance from populations that survived in ice-free refugia in the high Arctic polar deserts during the latter stages of the Weichselian glaciation. Increasing evidence for sudden changes in climate at high latitudes in the past, suggests that Arctic vegetation would have been subjected to rapid climatic warming if it had maintained a presence in these regions during the late Weichselian. A review of what is known about plant survival in the high Arctic since pre-Holocene times, coupled with an examination of some of the physiological properties of modern populations in these regions is presented in an attempt to ascertain if high Arctic plants possess mechanisms which facilitate their capacity to respond either phenotypically or physiologically to climatic change.     

Sedge Succession and Peatland Methane Dynamics: A Potential Feedback to Climate Change

Under the warmer climate, predicted for the future, northern peatlands are expected to become drier. This drying will lower the water table and likely result in reduced emissions of methane (CH₄) from these ecosystems. However, the prediction of declining CH₄ fluxes does not consider the potential effects of ecological succession, particularly the invasion of sedges into currently wet sites (open water pools, low lawns). The goal of this study was to characterize the relationship between the presence of sedges in peatlands and CH₄ efflux under natural conditions and under a climate change simulation (drained peatland). Methane fluxes, gross ecosystem production, and dissolved pore water CH₄ concentrations were measured and a vegetation survey was conducted in a natural and drained peatland near St. Charles-de-Bellechasse, Quebec, Canada, in the summer of 2003. Each peatland also had plots where the sedges had been removed by clipping. Sedges were larger, more dominant, and more productive at the drained peatland site. The natural peatland had higher CH₄ fluxes than the drained peatland, indicating that drainage was a significant control on CH₄ flux. Methane flux was higher from plots with sedges than from plots where sedges had been removed at the natural peatland site, whereas the opposite case was observed at the drained peatland site. These results suggest that CH₄ flux was enhanced by sedges at the natural peatland site and attenuated by sedges at the drained peatland site. However, the attenuation of CH₄ flux due to sedges at the drained site was reduced in wetter periods. This finding suggests that CH₄ flux could be decreased in the event of climate warming due to the greater depth to the water table, and that sedges colonizing these areas could further attenuate CH₄ fluxes during dry periods. However, during wet periods, the sedges may cause CH₄ fluxes to be higher than is currently predicted for climate change scenarios.     

Responses of Terrestrial Antarctic Ecosystems to Climate Change

Antarctic terrestrial biota are generally limited by the inexorably linked environmental factors of low summer temperature and lack of available water. However, in parts of the Antarctic, both these factors are changing rapidly on contemporary timescales. Terrestrial biota have concurrently been faced with changes in the timing of UV-B maxima associated with spring ozone depletion. The region of the Antarctic Peninsula and Scotia Arc has experienced one of the most rapid rates of environmental warming seen worldwide over the last 30–50 years. Together with local changes in precipitation, this has resulted in a rapid reduction in extent and thinning of many ice-fields and glaciers, exposing new terrain for colonisation while, at the same time, altering patterns of water availability in terrestrial habitats. The rapid development of communities on newly-exposed ground is also facilitated by the existence of soil propagule banks, which contain propagules of both local and exotic origin. In this paper we collate and review evidence from a range of observational and manipulative studies that investigate the effect of climate change, especially increased temperature, on the processes of colonisation and subsequent community development by plants in the Antarctic. Biological changes that have been associated with climate change are visible in the form of expansions in range and local population numbers amongst elements of the flora. Environmental manipulation experiments further demonstrate the possibility of large and rapid species and community responses to climate amelioration, with many resident biota responding positively, at least in the absence of increased competition from exotic colonists. Manipulation studies are also starting to elucidate more subtle responses to climate changes, at levels ranging from cell biochemistry to habitat and food web structure. Integrating such subtle responses is vital to improving our ability to understand the consequences of climate change, as these may lead to much greater consequential impacts on communities and ecosystems.