Capacity and Adaptations of General Practice during an Influenza Pandemic

Background

GPs play a major role in influenza epidemics, and most patients with influenza-like-illness (ILI) are treated in general practice or by primary care doctors on duty in out-of-hours services (OOH). Little is known about the surge capacity in primary care services during an influenza pandemic, and how the relationship between them changes.

Aim

To investigate how general practice and OOH services were used by patients during the 2009 pandemic in Norway and the impact of the pandemic on primary care services in comparison to a normal influenza season.

Materials

Data from electronic remuneration claims from all OOH doctors and regular GPs for 2009.

Methods

We conducted a registry-based study of all ILI consultations in the 2009 pandemic with the 2008/09 influenza season (normal season) as baseline for comparison.

Results

The majority (82.2%) of ILI consultations during the 2009 pandemic took place in general practice. The corresponding number in the 2008/09 season was 89.3%. Compared with general practice, the adjusted odds ratio for ILI with all other diagnoses as reference in OOH services was 1.23 (95% CI, 1.18, 1.27) for the 2008/2009 season and 1.87 (95% CI, 1.84, 1.91) for the pandemic influenza season. In total there was a 3.3-fold increase in ILI consultations during the pandemic compared to the 2008/09 season. A 5.5-fold increase of ILI consultations were observed in OOH services in comparison to the 2008/09 season. Children and young adults with ILI were the most frequent users of OOH services during influenza periods.

Conclusions

The autumn pandemic wave resulted in a significantly increased demand on primary care services. However, GPs in primary care services in Norway showed the ability to increase capacity in a situation with increased patient demand.     

Assessment of Local Public Health Workers' Willingness to Respond to Pandemic Influenza through Application of the Extended Parallel Process Model

Background

Local public health agencies play a central role in response to an influenza pandemic, and understanding the willingness of their employees to report to work is therefore a critically relevant concern for pandemic influenza planning efforts. Witte''s Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM) has been found useful for understanding adaptive behavior in the face of unknown risk, and thus offers a framework for examining scenario-specific willingness to respond among local public health workers. We thus aim to use the EPPM as a lens for examining the influences of perceived threat and efficacy on local public health workers'' response willingness to pandemic influenza.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We administered an online, EPPM-based survey about attitudes/beliefs toward emergency response (Johns Hopkins∼Public Health Infrastructure Response Survey Tool), to local public health employees in three states between November 2006 – December 2007. A total of 1835 responses were collected for an overall response rate of 83%. With some regional variation, overall 16% of the workers in 2006-7 were not willing to “respond to a pandemic flu emergency regardless of its severity”. Local health department employees with a perception of high threat and high efficacy – i.e., those fitting a ‘concerned and confident’ profile in the EPPM analysis – had the highest declared rates of willingness to respond to an influenza pandemic if required by their agency, which was 31.7 times higher than those fitting a ‘low threat/low efficacy’ EPPM profile.

Conclusions/Significance

In the context of pandemic influenza planning, the EPPM provides a useful framework to inform nuanced understanding of baseline levels of – and gaps in – local public health workers'' response willingness. Within local health departments, ‘concerned and confident’ employees are most likely to be willing to respond. This finding may allow public health agencies to design, implement, and evaluate training programs focused on emergency response attitudes in health departments.     

Influenza Vaccination Guidelines and Vaccine Sales in Southeast Asia: 2008–2011

Background

Southeast Asia is a region with great potential for the emergence of a pandemic influenza virus. Global efforts to improve influenza surveillance in this region have documented the burden and seasonality of influenza viruses and have informed influenza prevention strategies, but little information exists about influenza vaccination guidelines and vaccine sales.

Methods

To ascertain the existence of influenza vaccine guidelines and define the scope of vaccine sales, we sent a standard three-page questionnaire to the ten member nations of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. We also surveyed three multinational manufacturers who supply influenza vaccines in the region.

Results

Vaccine sales in the private sector were <1000 per 100,000 population in the 10 countries. Five countries reported purchasing vaccine for use in the public sector. In 2011, Thailand had the highest combined reported rate of vaccine sales (10,333 per 100,000). In the 10 countries combined, the rate of private sector sales during 2010–2011 (after the A(H1N1)2009pdm pandemic) exceeded 2008 pre-pandemic levels. Five countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) had guidelines for influenza vaccination but only two were consistent with global guidelines. Four recommended vaccination for health care workers, four for elderly persons, three for young children, three for persons with underlying disease, and two for pregnant women.

Conclusions

The rate of vaccine sales in Southeast Asia remains low, but there was a positive impact in sales after the A(H1N1)2009pdm pandemic. Low adherence to global vaccine guidelines suggests that more work is needed in the policy arena.     

Attitudes toward and uptake of H1N1 vaccine among health care workers during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic

Background

Though recommended by many and mandated by some, influenza vaccination rates among health care workers, even in pandemics, remain below optimal levels. The objective of this study was to assess vaccination uptake, attitudes, and distinguishing characteristics (including doctor-nurse differences) of health care workers who did and did not receive the pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccine in late 2009.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In early 2010 we mailed a self-administered survey to 800 physicians and 800 nurses currently licensed and practicing in Minnesota. 1,073 individuals responded (cooperation rate: 69%). 85% and 62% of Minnesota physicians and nurses, respectively, reported being vaccinated. Accurately estimating the risk of vaccine side effects (OR 2.0; 95% CI 1.5–2.7), agreeing with a professional obligation to be vaccinated (OR 10.1; 95% CI 7.1–14.2), an ethical obligation to follow public health authorities'' recommendations (OR 9.9; 95% CI 6.6–14.9), and laws mandating pandemic vaccination (OR 3.1; 95% CI 2.3–4.1) were all independently associated with receiving the H1N1 influenza vaccine.

Conclusions/Significance

While a majority of health care workers in one midwestern state reported receiving the pandemic H1N1 vaccine, physicians and nurses differed significantly in vaccination uptake. Several key attitudes and perceptions may influence health care workers'' decisions regarding vaccination. These data inform how states might optimally enlist health care workers'' support in achieving vaccination goals during a pandemic.     

Implementation of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions by New York City Public Schools to Prevent 2009 Influenza A

Introduction

Children are important transmitters of influenza in the community and a number of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including hand washing and use of hand sanitizer, have been recommended to mitigate the transmission of influenza, but limited information is available regarding schools'' ability to implement these NPIs during an influenza outbreak. We evaluated implementation of NPIs during fall 2009 in response to H1N1 pandemic influenza (pH1N1) by New York City (NYC) public schools.

Methods

From January 25 through February 9, 2010, an online survey was sent to all the 1,632 NYC public schools and principals were asked to participate in the survey or to designate a school nurse or other school official with knowledge of school policies and characteristics to do so.

Results

Of 1,633 schools, 376(23%) accessed and completed the survey. Nearly all respondents (99%) implemented at least two NPIs. Schools that had a Flu Response Team (FRT) as a part of school emergency preparedness plan were more likely to implement the NPI guidelines recommended by NYC public health officials than schools that did not have a FRT. Designation of a room for isolating ill students, for example, was more common in schools with a FRT (72%) than those without (53%) (p<0.001).

Conclusions

Implementing an NPI program in a large school system to mitigate the effects of an influenza outbreak is feasible, but there is potential need for additional resources in some schools to increase capacity and adherence to all recommendations. Public health influenza-preparedness plans should include school preparedness planning and FRTs.     

Risk of severe outcomes among patients admitted to hospital with pandemic (H1N1) influenza

Background

We describe the disease characteristics and outcomes, including risk factors for admission to intensive care unit (ICU) and death, of all patients in Canada admitted to hospital with pandemic (H1N1) influenza during the first five months of the pandemic.

Methods

We obtained data for all patients admitted to hospital with laboratory-confirmed pandemic (H1N1) influenza reported to the Public Health Agency of Canada from Apr. 26 to Sept. 26, 2009. We compared inpatients who had nonsevere disease with those who had severe disease, as indicated by admission to ICU or death.

Results

A total of 1479 patients were admitted to hospital with confirmed pandemic (H1N1) influenza during the study period. Of these, 1171 (79.2%) did not have a severe outcome, 236 (16.0%) were admitted to ICU and survived, and 72 (4.9%) died. The median age was 23 years for all of the patients, 18 years for those with a nonsevere outcome, 34 years for those admitted to ICU who survived and 51 years for those who died. The risk of a severe outcome was elevated among those who had an underlying medical condition and those 20 years of age and older. A delay of one day in the median time between the onset of symptoms and admission to hospital increased the risk of death by 5.5%. The risk of a severe outcome remained relatively constant over the five-month period.

Interpretation

The population-based incidence of admission to hospital with laboratory-confirmed pandemic (H1N1) influenza was low in the first five months of the pandemic in Canada. The risk of a severe outcome was associated with the presence of one or more underlying medical conditions, age of 20 years or more and a delay in hospital admission.The first cases of pandemic (H1N1) influenza in Canada were reported on Apr. 26, 2009. Retrospective case-finding determined that the onset of symptoms in the first Canadian case, involving a traveller returning from Mexico, occurred on Apr. 12, 2009. The first patient admitted to hospital began to experience symptoms on Apr. 18.During the first few weeks of the outbreak, in-depth follow-up and reporting of cases was conducted in keeping with the World Health Organization’s pandemic plans for each country to comprehensively assess its first 100 cases.¹ By mid-May, many Canadian jurisdictions moved away from this approach because it became increasingly taxing on both public health human resources and laboratory capacity. It was decided that reporting of individual cases would continue nationally only for patients who were admitted to hospital or who died. We provide a detailed review of the disease characteristics and outcomes, including risk factors for admission to intensive care unit (ICU) and death, of patients admitted to hospital in Canada during the first five months of the pandemic.     

Attitudes of the General Public and General Practitioners in Five Countries towards Pandemic and Seasonal Influenza Vaccines during Season 2009/2010

Background

Vaccination coverage rates for seasonal influenza are not meeting national and international targets. Here, we investigated whether the 2009/2010 A/H1N1 pandemic influenza affected the uptake of influenza vaccines.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In December 2009/January 2010 and April 2010, 500 randomly selected members of the general public in Germany, France, the United States, China, and Mexico were surveyed by telephone about vaccination for seasonal and A/H1N1 pandemic influenza. Also, in April 2010, 100 randomly selected general practitioners were surveyed. Adult vaccine coverage in December 2009/January 2010 for A/H1N1 pandemic and seasonal influenza were, respectively, 12% and 29% in France, 11% and 25% in Germany, 41% and 46% in the US, 13% and 30% in Mexico, and 12% and 10% in China. Adult uptake rates in April 2010 were higher in Mexico but similar or slightly lower in the other countries. Coverage rates in children were higher than in adults in the US, Mexico, and China but mostly lower in Germany and France. Germans and French viewed the threat of A/H1N1 pandemic influenza as low to moderate, whereas Mexicans, Americans, and Chinese viewed it as moderate to serious, opinions generally mirrored by general practitioners. The recommendation of a general practitioner was a common reason for receiving the pandemic vaccine, while not feeling at risk and concerns with vaccine safety and efficacy were common reasons for not being vaccinated. Inclusion of the A/H1N1 pandemic strain increased willingness to be vaccinated for seasonal influenza in the United States, Mexico, and China but not in Germany or France.

Conclusions/Significance

The 2009/2010 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic increased vaccine uptake rates for seasonal influenza in Mexico but had little effect in other countries. Accurate communication of health information, especially by general practitioners, is needed to improve vaccine coverage rates.     

Health system resource gaps and associated mortality from pandemic influenza across six Asian territories

Background

Southeast Asia has been the focus of considerable investment in pandemic influenza preparedness. Given the wide variation in socio-economic conditions, health system capacity across the region is likely to impact to varying degrees on pandemic mitigation operations. We aimed to estimate and compare the resource gaps, and potential mortalities associated with those gaps, for responding to pandemic influenza within and between six territories in Asia.

Methods and Findings

We collected health system resource data from Cambodia, Indonesia (Jakarta and Bali), Lao PDR, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. We applied a mathematical transmission model to simulate a “mild-to-moderate” pandemic influenza scenario to estimate resource needs, gaps, and attributable mortalities at province level within each territory. The results show that wide variations exist in resource capacities between and within the six territories, with substantial mortalities predicted as a result of resource gaps (referred to here as “avoidable” mortalities), particularly in poorer areas. Severe nationwide shortages of mechanical ventilators were estimated to be a major cause of avoidable mortalities in all territories except Taiwan. Other resources (oseltamivir, hospital beds and human resources) are inequitably distributed within countries. Estimates of resource gaps and avoidable mortalities were highly sensitive to model parameters defining the transmissibility and clinical severity of the pandemic scenario. However, geographic patterns observed within and across territories remained similar for the range of parameter values explored.

Conclusions

The findings have important implications for where (both geographically and in terms of which resource types) investment is most needed, and the potential impact of resource mobilization for mitigating the disease burden of an influenza pandemic. Effective mobilization of resources across administrative boundaries could go some way towards minimizing avoidable deaths.     

Guinea pig model for evaluating the potential public health risk of swine and avian influenza viruses

Background

The influenza viruses circulating in animals sporadically transmit to humans and pose pandemic threats. Animal models to evaluate the potential public health risk potential of these viruses are needed.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We investigated the guinea pig as a mammalian model for the study of the replication and transmission characteristics of selected swine H1N1, H1N2, H3N2 and avian H9N2 influenza viruses, compared to those of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 and seasonal human H1N1, H3N2 influenza viruses. The swine and avian influenza viruses investigated were restricted to the respiratory system of guinea pigs and shed at high titers in nasal tracts without prior adaptation, similar to human strains. None of the swine and avian influenza viruses showed transmissibility among guinea pigs; in contrast, pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus transmitted from infected guinea pigs to all animals and seasonal human influenza viruses could also horizontally transmit in guinea pigs. The analysis of the receptor distribution in the guinea pig respiratory tissues by lectin histochemistry indicated that both SAα2,3-Gal and SAα2,6-Gal receptors widely presented in the nasal tract and the trachea, while SAα2,3-Gal receptor was the main receptor in the lung.

Conclusions/Significance

We propose that the guinea pig could serve as a useful mammalian model to evaluate the potential public health threat of swine and avian influenza viruses.     

Adaptive Vaccination Strategies to Mitigate Pandemic Influenza: Mexico as a Case Study

Background

We explore vaccination strategies against pandemic influenza in Mexico using an age-structured transmission model calibrated against local epidemiological data from the Spring 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic.

Methods and Findings

In the context of limited vaccine supplies, we evaluate age-targeted allocation strategies that either prioritize youngest children and persons over 65 years of age, as for seasonal influenza, or adaptively prioritize age groups based on the age patterns of hospitalization and death monitored in real-time during the early stages of the pandemic. Overall the adaptive vaccination strategy outperformed the seasonal influenza vaccination allocation strategy for a wide range of disease and vaccine coverage parameters.

Conclusions

This modeling approach could inform policies for Mexico and other countries with similar demographic features and vaccine resources issues, with regard to the mitigation of the S-OIV pandemic. We also discuss logistical issues associated with the implementation of adaptive vaccination strategies in the context of past and future influenza pandemics.     

Diagnostic Approach for the Differentiation of the Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1)v Virus from Recent Human Influenza Viruses by Real-Time PCR

Background

The current spread of pandemic influenza A(H1N1)v virus necessitates an intensified surveillance of influenza virus infections worldwide. So far, in many laboratories routine diagnostics were limited to generic influenza virus detection only. To provide interested laboratories with real-time PCR assays for type and subtype identification, we present a bundle of PCR assays with which any human influenza A and B virus can be easily identified, including assays for the detection of the pandemic A(H1N1)v virus.

Principal Findings

The assays show optimal performance characteristics in their validation on plasmids containing the respective assay target sequences. All assays have furthermore been applied to several thousand clinical samples since 2007 (assays for seasonal influenza) and April 2009 (pandemic influenza assays), respectively, and showed excellent results also on clinical material.

Conclusions

We consider the presented assays to be well suited for the detection and subtyping of circulating influenza viruses.     

Serological response to the 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus for disease diagnosis and estimating the infection rate in Thai population

Background

Individuals infected with the 2009 pandemic virus A(H1N1) developed serological response which can be measured by hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) and microneutralization (microNT) assays.

Methodology/Principal Findings

MicroNT and HI assays for specific antibody to the 2009 pandemic virus were conducted in serum samples collected at the end of the first epidemic wave from various groups of Thai people: laboratory confirmed cases, blood donors and health care workers (HCW) in Bangkok and neighboring province, general population in the North and the South, as well as archival sera collected at pre- and post-vaccination from vaccinees who received influenza vaccine of the 2006 season. This study demonstrated that goose erythrocytes yielded comparable HI antibody titer as compared to turkey erythrocytes. In contrast to the standard protocol, our investigation found out the necessity to eliminate nonspecific inhibitor present in the test sera by receptor destroying enzyme (RDE) prior to performing microNT assay. The investigation in pre-pandemic serum samples showed that HI antibody was more specific to the 2009 pandemic virus than NT antibody. Based on data from pre-pandemic sera together with those from the laboratory confirmed cases, HI antibody titers ≥40 for adults and ≥20 for children could be used as the cut-off level to differentiate between the individuals with or without past infection by the 2009 pandemic virus.

Conclusions/Significance

Based on the cut-off criteria, the infection rates of 7 and 12.8% were estimated in blood donors and HCW, respectively after the first wave of the 2009 influenza pandemic. Among general population, the infection rate of 58.6% was found in children versus 3.1% in adults.     

Deployable laboratory response to influenza pandemic; PCR assay field trials and comparison with reference methods

Background

The influenza A/H1N1/09 pandemic spread quickly during the Southern Hemisphere winter in 2009 and reached epidemic proportions within weeks of the official WHO alert. Vulnerable population groups included indigenous Australians and remote northern population centres visited by international travellers. At the height of the Australian epidemic a large number of troops converged on a training area in northern Australia for an international exercise, raising concerns about their potential exposure to the emerging influenza threat before, during and immediately after their arrival in the area. Influenza A/H1N1/09 became the dominant seasonal variant and returned to Australia during the Southern winter the following year.

Methods

A duplex nucleic acid amplification assay was developed within weeks of the first WHO influenza pandemic alert, demonstrated in northwestern Australia shortly afterwards and deployed as part of the pathology support for a field hospital during a military exercise during the initial epidemic surge in June 2009.

Results

The nucleic acid amplification assay was twice as sensitive as a point of care influenza immunoassay, as specific but a little less sensitive than the reference laboratory nucleic acid amplification assay. Repetition of the field assay with blinded clinical samples obtained during the 2010 winter influenza season demonstrated a 91.7% congruence with the reference laboratory method.

Conclusions

Rapid in-house development of a deployable epidemic influenza assay allowed a flexible laboratory response, effective targeting of limited disease control resources in an austere military environment, and provided the public health laboratory service with a set of verification tools for resource-limited settings. The assay method was suitable for rapid deployment in time for the 2010 Northern winter.     

Access to Primary Care and Visits to Emergency Departments in England: A Cross-Sectional,Population-Based Study

Background

The number of visits to hospital emergency departments (EDs) in England has increased by 20% since 2007-08, placing unsustainable pressure on the National Health Service (NHS). Some patients attend EDs because they are unable to access primary care services. This study examined the association between access to primary care and ED visits in England.

Methods

A cross-sectional, population-based analysis of patients registered with 7,856 general practices in England was conducted, for the time period April 2010 to March 2011. The outcome measure was the number of self-referred discharged ED visits by the registered population of a general practice. The predictor variables were measures of patient-reported access to general practice services; these were entered into a negative binomial regression model with variables to control for the characteristics of patient populations, supply of general practitioners and travel times to health services.

Main Result and Conclusion

General practices providing more timely access to primary care had fewer self-referred discharged ED visits per registered patient (for the most accessible quintile of practices, RR = 0.898; P<0.001). Policy makers should consider improving timely access to primary care when developing plans to reduce ED utilisation.     

Experiences of General Practitioners and Practice Assistants during the Influenza A(H1N1) Pandemic in the Netherlands: A Cross-Sectional Survey

Objectives

Since few pandemics have occurred since the Spanish influenza pandemic, we should learn from every (mild) pandemic that occurs. The objective of this study was to report on general practitioners’ and practice assistants’ acceptance of the chosen national policy, and experiences in the Netherlands during the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic.

Methods

Data on experience and acceptance of the chosen national policy were obtained by structured questionnaires for general practitioners (n = 372) and practice assistants (n = 503) in April 2010.

Results

The primary policy chosen for general practice was not always accepted and complied with by general practitioners, although the communication (of changes) and collaboration with involved organisations were rated as positive. In particular, the advised personal protective measures were difficult to implement in daily work and thus not executed by 44% of general practitioners. Half of the general practitioners were not satisfied with the patient information provided by the government. The influenza A(H1N1) pandemic highly impacted on general practitioners’ and practice assistants’ workloads, which was not always deemed to be adequately compensated.

Discussion

Involvement of general practitioners in future infectious disease outbreaks is essential. This study addresses issues in the pandemic policy which might be critical in a more severe pandemic.     

Induction of Long-Term Protective Immune Responses by Influenza H5N1 Virus-Like Particles

Background

Recurrent outbreaks of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus pose a threat of eventually causing a pandemic. Early vaccination of the population would be the single most effective measure for the control of an emerging influenza pandemic.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Influenza virus-like particles (VLPs) produced in insect cell-culture substrates do not depend on the availability of fertile eggs for vaccine manufacturing. We produced VLPs containing influenza A/Viet Nam1203/04 (H5N1) hemagglutinin, neuraminidase, and matrix proteins, and investigated their preclinical immunogenicity and protective efficacy. Mice immunized intranasally with H5N1 VLPs developed high levels of H5N1 specific antibodies and were 100% protected against a high dose of homologous H5N1 virus infection at 30 weeks after immunization. Protection is likely to be correlated with humoral and cellular immunologic memory at systemic and mucosal sites as evidenced by rapid anamnestic responses to re-stimulation with viral antigen in vivo and in vitro.

Conclusions/Significance

These results provide support for clinical evaluation of H5N1 VLP vaccination as a public health intervention to mitigate a possible pandemic of H5N1 influenza.     

Signs of the 2009 Influenza Pandemic in the New York-Presbyterian Hospital Electronic Health Records

Background

In June of 2009, the World Health Organization declared the first influenza pandemic of the 21^st century, and by July, New York City''s New York-Presbyterian Hospital (NYPH) experienced a heavy burden of cases, attributable to a novel strain of the virus (H1N1pdm).

Methods and Results

We present the signs in the NYPH electronic health records (EHR) that distinguished the 2009 pandemic from previous seasonal influenza outbreaks via various statistical analyses. These signs include (1) an increase in the number of patients diagnosed with influenza, (2) a preponderance of influenza diagnoses outside of the normal flu season, and (3) marked vaccine failure. The NYPH EHR also reveals distinct age distributions of patients affected by seasonal influenza and the pandemic strain, and via available longitudinal data, suggests that the two may be associated with distinct sets of comorbid conditions as well. In particular, we find significantly more pandemic flu patients with diagnoses associated with asthma and underlying lung disease. We further observe that the NYPH EHR is capable of tracking diseases at a resolution as high as particular zip codes in New York City.

Conclusion

The NYPH EHR permits early detection of pandemic influenza and hypothesis generation via identification of those significantly associated illnesses. As data standards develop and databases expand, EHRs will contribute more and more to disease detection and the discovery of novel disease associations.     

Using a Dynamic Model to Consider Optimal Antiviral Stockpile Size in the Face of Pandemic Influenza Uncertainty

Background

The Canadian National Antiviral Stockpile (NAS) contains treatment for 17.5% of Canadians. This assumes no concurrent intervention strategies and no wastage due to non-influenza respiratory infections. A dynamic model can provide a mechanism to consider complex scenarios to support decisions regarding the optimal NAS size under uncertainty.

Methods

We developed a dynamic model for pandemic influenza in Canada that is structured by age and risk to calculate the demand for antivirals to treat persons with pandemic influenza under a wide-range of scenarios that incorporated transmission dynamics, disease severity, and intervention strategies. The anticipated per capita number of acute respiratory infections due to viruses other than influenza was estimated for the full pandemic period from surveys based on criteria to identify potential respiratory infections.

Results

Our results demonstrate that up to two thirds of the population could develop respiratory symptoms as a result of infection with a pandemic strain. In the case of perfect antiviral allocation, up to 39.8% of the population could request antiviral treatment. As transmission dynamics, severity and timing of the emergence of a novel influenza strain are unknown, the sensitivity analysis produced considerable variation in potential demand (median: 11%, IQR: 2–21%). If the next pandemic strain emerges in late spring or summer and a vaccine is available before the anticipated fall wave, the median prediction was reduced to 6% and IQR to 0.7–14%. Under the strategy of offering empirical treatment to all patients with influenza like symptoms who present for care, demand could increase to between 65 and 144%.

Conclusions

The demand for antivirals during a pandemic is uncertain. Unless an accurate, timely and cost-effective test is available to identify influenza cases, demand for antivirals from persons infected with other respiratory viruses will be substantial and have a significant impact on the NAS.     

The new school absentees reporting system for pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 infection in Japan

Objective

To evaluate the new Japanese School Absentees Reporting System for Infectious Disease (SARSID) for pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 infection in comparison with the National epidemiological Surveillance of Infectious Disease (NESID).

Methods

We used data of 53,223 students (97.7%) in Takamatsu city Japan. Data regarding school absentees in SARSID was compared with that in NESID from Oct 13, 2009 to Jan 12, 2010.

Results

Similar trends were observed both in SARSID and NESID. However, the epidemic trend for influenza in SARSID was thought to be more sensitive than that in NESID.

Conclusion

The epidemic trend for influenza among school-aged children could be easily and rapidly assessed by SARSID compared to NESID. SARSID might be useful for detecting the epidemic trend of influenza.