BSE risk assessments in the UK: a risk tradeoff?

Risk assessments for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) should be based on the group risk and not the median individual risk. The group risk is calculated from the arithmetic mean risk, which in the case of dorsal root ganglia, is a factor of 50-fold higher than the median. For environmental routes, the arithmetic mean exposure is sufficient for risk assessment, while for food-borne routes failure to accommodate the variation in exposures to individuals across the UK population could overestimate the group risk considerably. Ignoring prion destruction by cooking could overestimate the food-borne risks still further. The recent estimate for the arithmetic mean cow-to-man species barrier of 4000 does not take into accounts either of these factors and thus may be too high. Until evidence for a threshold dose is demonstrated, public health scientists should avoid assessing safety on the basis of a 'minimum infective dose'. The incubation period observed in cattle-feeding studies, when completed, would continue to increase with decreasing dose below the ID50if there is a threshold or co-operative effect. The question is raised of whether fears over BSE in drinking water contributed to the spread of foot-and-mouth disease across the UK in 2001; a risk tradeoff.     

The Dutch SCORE-based risk charts seriously underestimate the risk of cardiovascular disease

Introduction

Dutch cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines recommend the use of modified SCORE risk charts to estimate 10-year risk of fatal and nonfatal CVD (myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular disease and congestive heart failure). This combined risk is derived from the SCORE mortality risk using multipliers. These multipliers have been shown to underestimate overall CVD risk. We aimed to compare the current Dutch risk charts with charts that estimate a broader range of clinically relevant CVD using updated multipliers.

Methods

We constructed new risk charts for 10-year CVD using updated, recently published multipliers from the EPIC-Norfolk study, based on ratios of fatal CVD to clinically relevant CVD (fatal plus nonfatal CVD requiring hospitalisation for ischaemic heart disease, cardiac failure, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral artery disease, and aortic aneurysm). Our primary outcome was the proportion of the three risk categories, i.?e. ‘high risk’ (>20% 10-year risk), ‘intermediate risk’ (10–19%) and ‘low risk’ (<10%) in the new risk charts as compared with the current risk charts.

Results

Applying the updated fatal CVD/clinical CVD multipliers led to a marked increase in the high-risk categories (109 (27%) vs. 244 (61%), (p < 0.001)), an absolute increase of 229%. Similarly, the number of low-risk categories decreased (190 (48%) vs. 81 (20%) (p < 0.001)).

Conclusion

The current Dutch risk charts seriously underestimate the risk of clinical CVD, even in the first 10 years. Even when analyses are restricted to CVD events that required hospitalisation, true 10-year risks are more than double the currently estimated risks. Future guidelines may be revised to reflect these findings.

     

The risk of extinction—the mutational meltdown or the overpopulation

The phase diagrams survival-extinction for the Penna model with parameters: (mutations rate)-(birth rate), (mutation rate)-(harmful mutations threshold), (harmful mutation threshold)-(minimal reproduction age) are presented. The extinction phase may be caused by either mutational meltdown or overpopulation. When the Verhulst factor is responsible for removing only newly born babies and does not act on adults the overpopulation is avoided and only genetic factors may lead to species extinction.     

Does copulation increase the risk of predation?

Studies of mating behaviour have assumed that individuals are at greater risk when paired than when engaged in other activities. Recently, four experimental studies of insects and crustaceans have tested this assumption using predators from divergent taxa. Three of these studies indicate that mating carries no additional risk to the participants. Indeed, the findings suggest decreased vulnerability, relative to other activities, due to decreased predation on one or the other of the mating pair.     

How does scientific risk assessment of GM crops fit within the wider risk analysis?

The debate concerning genetically modified crops illustrates confusion between the role of scientists and that of wider society in regulatory decision making. We identify two fundamental misunderstandings, which, if rectified, would allow progress with confidence. First, scientific risk assessment needs to test well-defined hypotheses, not simply collect data. Second, risk assessments need to be placed in the wider context of risk analysis to enable the wider 'non-scientific' questions to be considered in regulatory decision making. Such integration and understanding is urgently required because the challenges to regulation will escalate as scientific progress advances.     

Radon-associated lung cancer risk among French uranium miners: modifying factors of the exposure–risk relationship

Radon is classified as a known pulmonary carcinogen in humans. A better understanding of the effects of low exposure and time-dependent factors, modifying the lung cancer risk is of continued interest. We present analyses of the exposure–risk relationship in the French cohort of uranium miners updated until 1999 and including five additional years of follow-up. These new analyses provide a better opportunity to look at low radon exposures with longer follow-up intervals, and allow consideration of new modifying factors, such as physical activity, mine location and job type. The cohort includes 5,086 miners, and 159 lung cancer deaths have been observed among these over a follow-up of more than 30 years. The exposure–risk relationship was estimated using excess relative risk models, which allow investigation of several modifying factors such as period of exposure, time since exposure, age at exposure, duration of exposure, exposure rate, job type, mine type and physical activity. The analysis confirms the association between radon exposure and lung cancer risk (ERR per 100 WLM = 0.58, P < 0.01). Period of exposure and physical activity appear as major modifying factors. Higher risks are observed for hard physical activity works. The effect of hard physical activity persists when the period of exposure is taken into account (ERR per 100 WLM = 2.95, P < 0.01).     

Cordia millenii: on the risk of local extinction?

Selective logging of valuable tropical timber trees is a conservation concern because it threatens the long-term sustainability of forests. However, there is insufficient information regarding the postlogging recovery of harvested species. Here, I assessed the seed dispersal patterns, recruitment and abundance of Cordia millenii , a valuable timber tree in two Ugandan tropical rain forests that have been subjected to varying disturbance regimes. The aim was to determine the vulnerability of Cordia in these forests. The rate of seed dispersal was lower in the heavily disturbed Mabira Forest compared with the less disturbed Budongo Forest. Frugivores in Mabira were small-bodied individuals that spat seeds beneath fruiting trees, whereas 90% of the fruit in Budongo was consumed by large-bodied chimpanzees that disperse seeds over long distances. Juveniles of Cordia were not found in the closed forest, although they were found in forest gaps in Budongo but not Mabira. Mature tree density was higher in Budongo compared with Mabira. Lack of effective seed dispersal coupled with the inability of seedlings of Cordia to establish under closed canopy account for the arrested recruitment in Mabira. Enrichment planting in felling gaps is necessary to avoid local extinction of Cordia in forests without large vertebrates.     

What is the risk of a deadly adenovirus pandemic?

Many of us had refresher courses in virology, immunology, and epidemiology in 2020, and we were reminded of the fact that Homo sapiens, the wiliest predator on the planet, has been hunting everything that moves for millennia. These repeated interspecies contacts inherently lead to recurrent zoonosis (nonhuman to human) and anthroponosis (human to nonhuman). Given the accelerating changes in our ecosystems since the neolithic revolution, it was not surprising to see a virus that spreads via aerosolization and liquid droplets cause a pandemic in a few months. The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic begs the question—which viruses could cause a global threat? In this Opinion, the characteristics that make adenoviruses a risk, which include efficient intra- and interspecies transmission, thermostable particles, persistent/latent infections in diverse hosts, and the ability to readily recombine and escape herd immunity, are discussed.     

Can the aging influence cold environment mediated cancer risk in the USA female population?

Cancer is one of the most debilitating diseases worldwide. Cancer incidence and/or death depends on several intrinsic and extrinsic factors (e.g., dietary habits, socio-behavioral activities, physical inactivity, smoking, alcohol consumption, gender, races/ethnicities and age). Various studies have found that an inverse relationship subsists between environmental temperature and cancer risk. Furthermore, this negative relationship was found to be more consistent in the USA female population. This research mainly focuses on influence of aging on cold environment mediated cancer risk for overall and various anatomical site-specific cancers. Age-specific county-wise data of cancer incidence rate (CIR) in the USA female population was selected in this study. Statistical analysis found a negative correlation between the average annual temperature (AAT) and CIR in all anatomical sites (AAS; overall) as well as different anatomical site-specific cancers (e.g., breast, melanoma, leukaemia, pancreas, bladder, uterus, thyroid and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL), except for cervical cancer) in different age groups (e.g., less than 50 years, 50 plus years, less than 65 years and 65 plus years). In addition, an inverse relationship between the AAT and CIR was found in case of paediatric cancer. However, all the results obtained from the linear model based statistical analysis proposed that the older age-group of females particularly above 65 years seems to be more prone to cold temperature linked cancer risk. For example, age-specific cold linked cancer incidence appears to be more inclined in case of breast cancer in the age-group of 65 plus years. This study, for first time, proposes that aging may have a positive influence on the relationship between cancer incidence and environment temperature.     

The bigger the healthier: are the limits of BMI risk changing over time?

The body mass index (BMI) is often used as a predictor of overweight and obesity. There is, however, an important debate among international specialists as to what the risk limits should be, and where the cut-off points should be located. In the United States, for instance, adults with a BMI between 25 and 30 are considered overweight, while adults with a BMI of 30 or higher are considered obese. Nevertheless some researchers, especially in developing countries, claim that the limits established for the US are too permissive, and that the threshold to define obese adults should be set lower for other nationalities and ethnicities. This paper analyzes the mortality risks for different BMI levels of two populations of American adult men. The first population lived during the last quarter of the 19th century and the early 20th century. These men were drawn from a random sample of Union Army veterans who fought during the American Civil War (1861-1865). A contemporary sample of men was drawn from the first wave of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES I) conducted between 1971 and 1975. The results indicate that the frontier of overweight and obesity are expanding over time, such that the potential risk is nowadays associated with higher levels of BMI. The finding may imply that differences in BMI cut-off points are not only cross ethnic, but also occur for similar ethnicities across time.     

Psychiatric disorders: The risk of DISC — at the synapse

DISC1 negatively regulates synaptic strength by inhibiting the TNIK-dependent stabilization of postsynaptic proteins.     

CD154: the atherosclerotic risk factor in rheumatoid arthritis?

Atherosclerosis, now regarded as a chronic inflammatory disease of the arterial wall, and its clinical manifestations have increasingly been associated with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), supporting the notion that autoimmune diseases and vascular disorders share common etiological features. Indeed, evidence pertaining to this matter indicates that inflammation and its multiple components are the driving force behind the pathogenesis of these disorders. Interestingly, CD154 and its receptors have emerged as major players in the development of RA and atherosclerosis, which raises the possibility that this axis may represent an important biological link between both complications. Indeed, CD154 signaling elicits critical inflammatory responses that are common to the pathogenesis of both diseases. Here, we provide an overview of the traditional and disease-related interrelations between RA and vascular abnormalities, while focusing on CD154 as a potential mediator in the development of atherosclerotic events in RA patients.     

Does height modify the risk of angina associated with economic adversity?

Adult height partly reflects childhood exposures, and we hypothesise that some exposures impairing growth may also increase susceptibility to coronary heart disease--angina pectoris (angina)--risks, such that shorter adults may be more susceptible to some exposures in adulthood that are risks for heart disease. This hypothesis is tested among all adults who participated in the National Health Interview Survey (USA), 1997-2000 [The National Health Survey, 1997-2000. Data file documentation, National Health Interview Survey (machine-readable data file and documentation). National Center for Health Statistics, Hyattsville, Maryland, ]. In the entire study population, height was negatively associated with angina and after adjustment for potential confounding factors; the odds ratio (and 95% confidence interval) for angina risk associated with the tallest height fifth compared with the shortest fifth is 0.77 (0.97, 0.88). The association of low income (less than US 20,000 dollars) with angina was assessed separately in each of five height strata defined by fifths of the height distribution. The magnitude of this association is lower in the shortest than the tallest height fifth, with odds ratios of 1.18 and 1.60, respectively (effect modification). The unexpected results may be explained by the following: childhood adversity resulting in shorter stature may confer resilience against adult economic adversity; the relative disadvantage of low income may be perceived more keenly by those of taller stature thereby increasing stress and thus disease risk; or health-promoting characteristics associated with taller stature may be less effective in the face of adult economic adversity in the low-income group.     

Analysis of the risk factors relating to cows’ resistance to Rhipicephalus microplus ticks during the peripartum

This study aimed to evaluate season, breed, number of lactations and milk production as risk factors relating to Rhipicephalus microplus infestation in dairy cows during the peripartum. Eighty-four animals were randomly selected through proportional stratified sampling. All engorged and partially engorged female R. microplus specimens measuring 4.5–8.0 mm were counted during the 5 weeks before calving, calving week and 5 weeks after calving. The peripartum had a significant effect [calving (p < 0.05; prevalence ratio (PR)= 3.12) and post calving (p < 0.05; PR = 2.02)] on R. microplus infestation. Although the average tick count was higher during the rainy season than during the dry season, there was no significant difference (p = 0.055; PR = 0.63). The average R. microplus count was significantly higher (p < 0.05; PR = 2.10) in Bos taurus animals, followed by F1 (p < 0.05; PR = 1.64) and Girolando (p < 0.05; PR = 1.39). The average R. microplus count was significantly higher (p < 0.05; PR = 0.97) in first-lactation animals, followed by those at the second, third and, fourth or subsequent lactation. Milk production showed a negative correlation with R. microplus count, such that high-production animals were significantly (p = 0.003; PR = 2.04) more vulnerable to infestation than were low-production animals. First-lactation and high-production B. taurus animals had greatest vulnerability to R. microplus infestation over the peripartum period, and constituted the at-risk group in the dairy herd.     

Does the modern urbanized sleeping habitat pose a breast cancer risk?

Due to its disruptive effects on circadian rhythms and sleep deprivation at night, shiftworking is currently recognized as a risk factor for breast cancer (BC). As revealed by the present analysis based on a comparative case-control study of 1679 women, exposure to light-at-night (LAN) in the "sleeping habitat" is significantly associated with BC risk (odds ratio [OR]?=?1.220, 95% confidence interval [CI]?=?1.118-1.311; p?相似文献