Characterizing a hybrid zone between a cryptic species pair of freshwater snails

Characterizing hybrid zones and their dynamics is a central goal in evolutionary biology, but this is particularly challenging for morphologically cryptic species. The lack of conspicuous divergence between parental types means intermediate hybrid forms often go undetected. We aimed to detect and characterize a suspected hybrid zone between a pair of morphologically cryptic lineages of the freshwater snail, Radix. We sampled Radix from across a contact zone between two mitochondrial lineages (Radix balthica and an undescribed lineage termed ‘MOTU3’) and detected admixture between two nuclear genotype clusters, which were significantly but not categorically associated with the mitochondrial lineages. Using a model selection approach, we show that the admixture cline is best explained by an interaction between precipitation and temperature gradients over the area, rather than geographic distance. We thus hypothesize that the correlation with climatic gradients suggests environmental selection has played a role in maintaining the hybrid zone. In a 2050 climate change scenario, we furthermore predict an expansion of one of the nuclear clusters and a widening of the hybrid zone as the climate warms and dries.     

Responses of plant biomass,photosynthesis and lipid peroxidation to warming and precipitation change in two dominant species (Stipa grandis and Leymus chinensis) from North China Grasslands

Influential factors of global change affect plant carbon uptake and biomass simultaneously. Although the effects from warming and precipitation change have been extensive studied separately, the responses of plant biomass, photosynthesis, and lipid peroxidation to the interaction of these factors are still not fully understood. In this study, we examined the physiological responses of two dominant plant species from grasslands of northern China with different functional traits to combinations of five simulated warming patterns and five simulated precipitation patterns in environment‐controlled chambers. Our results showed that the biomass, net CO₂ assimilation rate (P_n), maximal efficiency of photosystem II photochemistry (F_v/F_m), and chlorophyll content (Chl) of Stipa grandis and Leymus chinensis were enhanced by moderate warming and plus precipitation, but they declined drastically with high temperature and drought. High temperature and drought also led to significant malondialdehyde (MDA) accumulation, which had a negative correlation with leaf biomass. The lower level of lipid peroxidation in leaves of S. grandis suggests that this species is better protected from oxidative damage under heat stress, drought stress and their interactive conditions than L. chinensis. Using the subordinate function values method, we found S. grandis to be more sensitive to climate change than L. chinensis and the gross biomass and root biomass of S. grandis and the leaf biomass of L. chinensis were most sensitive to climate change. Furthermore, the P_n of both S. grandis and L. chinensis had a significant linear relationship with F_v/F_m and Chl, indicating that carbon assimilation may be caused by nonstomatal limitations.     

Plant functional traits mediate reproductive phenology and success in response to experimental warming and snow addition in Tibet

Global climate change is predicted to have large impacts on the phenology and reproduction of alpine plants, which will have important implications for plant demography and community interactions, trophic dynamics, ecosystem energy balance, and human livelihoods. In this article we report results of a 3‐year, fully factorial experimental study exploring how warming, snow addition, and their combination affect reproductive phenology, effort, and success of four alpine plant species belonging to three different life forms in a semiarid, alpine meadow ecosystem on the central Tibetan Plateau. Our results indicate that warming and snow addition change reproductive phenology and success, but responses are not uniform across species. Moreover, traits associated with resource acquisition, such as rooting depth and life history (early vs. late flowering), mediate plant phenology, and reproductive responses to changing climatic conditions. Specifically, we found that warming delayed the reproductive phenology and decreased number of inflorescences of Kobresia pygmaea C. B. Clarke, a shallow‐rooted, early‐flowering plant, which may be mainly constrained by upper‐soil moisture availability. Because K. pygmaea is the dominant species in the alpine meadow ecosystem, these results may have important implications for ecosystem dynamics and for pastoralists and wildlife in the region.     

Climate and host plant availability impact the future distribution of the bean leaf beetle (Cerotoma trifurcata)

The bean leaf beetle, Cerotoma trifurcata, has become a major pest of soybean throughout its North American range. With a changing climate, there is the potential for this pest to further expand its distribution and become an increasingly severe pest in certain regions. To examine this possibility, we developed bioclimatic envelope models for both the bean leaf beetle, and its most important agronomic host plant, soybean (Glycine max). These two models were combined to examine the potential future pest status of the beetle using climate change projections from multiple general circulation models (GCMs) and climate change scenarios. Despite the broad tolerances of soybean, incorporation of host plant availability substantially decreased the suitable and favourable areas for the bean leaf beetle as compared to an evaluation based solely on the climate envelope of the beetle, demonstrating the importance of incorporating biotic interactions in these predictions. The use of multiple GCM–scenario combinations also revealed differences in predictions depending on the choice of GCM, with scenario choice having less of an impact. While the Norwegian model predicted little northward expansion of the beetle from its current northern range limit of southern Ontario and overall decreases in suitable and favourable areas over time, the Canadian and Russian models predict that much of Ontario and Quebec will become suitable for the beetle in the future, as well as Manitoba under the Russian model. The Russian model also predicts expansion of the suitable and favourable areas for the beetle over time. Two predictions that do not depend on our choice of GCM include a decrease in suitability of the Mississippi Delta region and continued favourability of the southeastern United States.     

Integration of conflict into integrative taxonomy: fitting hybridization in species delimitation of Mesocarabus (Coleoptera: Carabidae)

In species differentiation, characters may not diverge synchronously, and there are also processes that shuffle character states in lineages descendant from a common ancestor. Species are thus expected to show some degree of incongruence among characters; therefore, taxonomic delimitation can benefit from integrative approaches and objective strategies that account for character conflict. We illustrate the potential of exploiting conflict for species delimitation in a study case of ground beetles of the subgenus Carabus (Mesocarabus), where traditional taxonomy does not accurately delimit species. The molecular phylogenies of four mitochondrial and three nuclear genes, cladistic analysis of the aedeagus, ecological niche divergence and morphometry of pronotal shape in more than 500 specimens of Mesocarabus show that these characters are not fully congruent. For these data, a three‐step operational strategy is proposed for species delimitation by (i) delineating candidate species based on the integration of incongruence among conclusive lines of evidence, (ii) corroborating candidate species with inconclusive lines of evidence and (iii) refining a final species proposal based on an integrated characterization of candidate species based on the evolutionary analysis of incongruence. This procedure provided a general understanding of the reticulate process of hybridization and introgression acting on Mesocarabus and generated the hypothesis of seven Mesocarabus species, including two putative hybrid lineages. Our work emphasizes the importance of incorporating critical analyses of character and phylogenetic conflict to infer both the evolutionary history and species boundaries through an integrative taxonomic approach.     

Dietary partitioning promotes the coexistence of planktivorous species on coral reefs

Theories involving niche diversification to explain high levels of tropical diversity propose that species are more likely to co‐occur if they partition at least one dimension of their ecological niche space. Yet, numerous species appear to have widely overlapping niches based upon broad categorizations of resource use or functional traits. In particular, the extent to which food partitioning contributes to species coexistence in hyperdiverse tropical ecosystems remains unresolved. Here, we use a molecular approach to investigate inter‐ and intraspecific dietary partitioning between two species of damselfish (Dascyllus flavicaudus, Chromis viridis) that commonly co‐occur in branching corals. Species‐level identification of their diverse zooplankton prey revealed significant differences in diet composition between species despite their seemingly similar feeding strategies. Dascyllus exhibited a more diverse diet than Chromis, whereas Chromis tended to select larger prey items. A large calanoid copepod, Labidocera sp., found in low density and higher in the water column during the day, explained more than 19% of the variation in dietary composition between Dascyllus and Chromis. Dascyllus did not significantly shift its diet in the presence of Chromis, which suggests intrinsic differences in feeding behaviour. Finally, prey composition significantly shifted during the ontogeny of both fish species. Our findings show that levels of dietary specialization among coral reef associated species have likely been underestimated, and they underscore the importance of characterizing trophic webs in tropical ecosystems at higher levels of taxonomic resolution. They also suggest that niche redundancy may not be as common as previously thought.     

The data void in modeling current and future distributions of tropical species

Conserving biodiversity in the face of climate change requires a predictive ecology of species distributions. Nowhere is this need more acute than in the tropics, which harbor the majority of Earth's species and face rapid and large climate and land‐use changes. However, the study of species distributions and their responses to climate change in high diversity tropical regions is potentially crippled by a lack of basic data. We analyzed a database representing more than 800 000 unique geo‐referenced natural history collections to determine what fraction of tropical plant species has sufficient numbers of available collections for use in the habitat or niche models commonly used to predict species responses to climate change. We found that more than nine out of 10 species from the three principle tropical realms are so poorly collected (n < 20 records) that they are essentially invisible to modern modeling and conservation tools. In order to predict the impact of climate change on tropical species, efforts must be made to increase the amount of data available from tropical countries through a combination of collecting new specimens and digitizing existing records.     

Potential changes in the distributions of latitudinally restricted Australian butterfly species in response to climate change

This study assessed potential changes in the distributions of Australian butterfly species in response to global warming. The bioclimatic program, BIOCLIM, was used to determine the current climatic ranges of 77 butterfly species restricted to Australia. We found that the majority of these species had fairly wide climatic ranges in comparison to other taxa, with only 8% of butterfly species having a mean annual temperature range spanning less than 3 °C. The potential changes in the distributions of 24 butterfly species under four climate change scenarios for 2050 were also modelled using BIOCLIM. Results suggested that even species with currently wide climatic ranges may still be vulnerable to climate change; under a very conservative climate change scenario (with a temperature increase of 0.8–1.4 °C by 2050) 88% of species distributions decreased, and 54% of species distributions decreased by at least 20%. Under an extreme scenario (temperature increase of 2.1–3.9 °C by 2050) 92% of species distributions decreased, and 83% of species distributions decreased by at least 50%. Furthermore, the proportion of the current range that was contained within the predicted range decreased from an average of 63% under a very conservative scenario to less than 22% under the most extreme scenario. By assessing the climatic ranges that species are currently exposed to, the extent of potential changes in distributions in response to climate change and details of their life histories, we identified species whose characteristics may make them particularly vulnerable to climate change in the future.     

Species‐specific adaptations explain resilience of herbaceous understorey to increased precipitation variability in a Mediterranean oak woodland

To date, the implications of the predicted greater intra‐annual variability and extremes in precipitation on ecosystem functioning have received little attention. This study presents results on leaf‐level physiological responses of five species covering the functional groups grasses, forbs, and legumes in the understorey of a Mediterranean oak woodland, with increasing precipitation variability, without altering total annual precipitation inputs. Although extending the dry period between precipitation events from 3 to 6 weeks led to increased soil moisture deficit, overall treatment effects on photosynthetic performance were not observed in the studied species. This resilience to prolonged water stress was explained by different physiological and morphological strategies to withstand periods below the wilting point, that is, isohydric behavior in Agrostis, Rumex, and Tuberaria, leaf succulence in Rumex, and taproots in Tolpis. In addition, quick recovery upon irrigation events and species‐specific adaptations of water‐use efficiency with longer dry periods and larger precipitation events contributed to the observed resilience in productivity of the annual plant community. Although none of the species exhibited a change in cover with increasing precipitation variability, leaf physiology of the legume Ornithopus exhibited signs of sensitivity to moisture deficit, which may have implications for the agricultural practice of seeding legume‐rich mixtures in Mediterranean grassland‐type systems. This highlights the need for long‐term precipitation manipulation experiments to capture possible directional changes in species composition and seed bank development, which can subsequently affect ecosystem state and functioning.     

Environmental gradients shape the genetic structure of two medicinal Salvia species in Jordan

• Environmental gradients, and particularly climatic variables, exert a strong influence on plant distribution and, potentially, population genetic diversity and differentiation. Differences in water availability can cause among‐population variation in ecological processes and can thus interrupt populations’ connectivity and isolate them environmentally. The present study examines the effect of environmental heterogeneity on plant populations due to environmental isolation unrelated to geographic distance.
• Using AFLP markers, we analyzed genetic diversity and differentiation among 12 Salvia spinosa populations and 13 Salvia syriaca populations from three phytogeographical regions (Mediterranean, Irano‐Turanian and Saharo‐Arabian) representing the extent of the species’ geographic range in Jordan. Differences in geographic location and climate were considered in the analyses.
• For both species, flowering phenology varied among populations and regions. Irano‐Turanian and Saharo‐Arabian populations had higher genetic diversity than Mediterranean populations, and genetic diversity increased significantly with increasing temperature. Genetic diversity in Salvia syriaca was affected by population size, while genetic diversity responded to drought in S. spinosa. For both species, high levels of genetic differentiation were found as well as two well‐supported phytogeographical groups of populations, with Mediterranean populations clustering in one group and the Irano‐Turanian and Saharo‐Arabian populations in another. Genetic distance was significantly correlated to environmental distance, but not to geographic distance.
• Our data indicate that populations from moist vs. arid environments are environmentally isolated, where environmental gradients affect their flowering phenology, limit gene flow and shape their genetic structure. We conclude that environmental heterogeneity may act as driver for the observed variation in genetic diversity.

     

Increased heat requirement for leaf flushing in temperate woody species over 1980–2012: effects of chilling,precipitation and insolation

Recent studies have revealed large unexplained variation in heat requirement‐based phenology models, resulting in large uncertainty when predicting ecosystem carbon and water balance responses to climate variability. Improving our understanding of the heat requirement for spring phenology is thus urgently needed. In this study, we estimated the species‐specific heat requirement for leaf flushing of 13 temperate woody species using long‐term phenological observations from Europe and North America. The species were defined as early and late flushing species according to the mean date of leaf flushing across all sites. Partial correlation analyses were applied to determine the temporal correlations between heat requirement and chilling accumulation, precipitation and insolation sum during dormancy. We found that the heat requirement for leaf flushing increased by almost 50% over the study period 1980–2012, with an average of 30 heat units per decade. This temporal increase in heat requirement was observed in all species, but was much larger for late than for early flushing species. Consistent with previous studies, we found that the heat requirement negatively correlates with chilling accumulation. Interestingly, after removing the variation induced by chilling accumulation, a predominantly positive partial correlation exists between heat requirement and precipitation sum, and a predominantly negative correlation between heat requirement and insolation sum. This suggests that besides the well‐known effect of chilling, the heat requirement for leaf flushing is also influenced by precipitation and insolation sum during dormancy. However, we hypothesize that the observed precipitation and insolation effects might be artefacts attributable to the inappropriate use of air temperature in the heat requirement quantification. Rather than air temperature, meristem temperature is probably the prominent driver of the leaf flushing process, but these data are not available. Further experimental research is thus needed to verify whether insolation and precipitation sums directly affect the heat requirement for leaf flushing.     

Scaling up experimental ocean acidification and warming research: from individuals to the ecosystem

Understanding long‐term, ecosystem‐level impacts of climate change is challenging because experimental research frequently focuses on short‐term, individual‐level impacts in isolation. We address this shortcoming first through an interdisciplinary ensemble of novel experimental techniques to investigate the impacts of 14‐month exposure to ocean acidification and warming (OAW) on the physiology, activity, predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predation of an important marine gastropod (Nucella lapillus). We simultaneously estimated the potential impacts of these global drivers on N. lapillus population dynamics and dispersal parameters. We then used these data to parameterize a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model, to investigate the consequences of OAW on the distribution of the species in the wider NE Atlantic region by 2100. The model accounts also for changes in the distribution of resources, suitable habitat and environment simulated by finely resolved biogeochemical models, under three IPCC global emissions scenarios. The experiments showed that temperature had the greatest impact on individual‐level responses, while acidification had a similarly important role in the mediation of predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predators. Changes in Nucella predatory behaviour appeared to serve as a strategy to mitigate individual‐level impacts of acidification, but the development of this response may be limited in the presence of predators. The model projected significant large‐scale changes in the distribution of Nucella by the year 2100 that were exacerbated by rising greenhouse gas emissions. These changes were spatially heterogeneous, as the degree of impact of OAW on the combination of responses considered by the model varied depending on local‐environmental conditions and resource availability. Such changes in macro‐scale distributions cannot be predicted by investigating individual‐level impacts in isolation, or by considering climate stressors separately. Scaling up the results of experimental climate change research requires approaches that account for long‐term, multiscale responses to multiple stressors, in an ecosystem context.     

Widespread hybridization in the introduced hog deer population of Victoria,Australia, and its implications for conservation

In Australia, many species have been introduced that have since undergone drastic declines in their native range. One species of note is the hog deer (Axis porcinus) which was introduced in the 1860s to Victoria, Australia, and has since become endangered in its native range throughout South‐East Asia. There is increased interest in using non‐native populations as a source for genetic rescue; however, considerations need to be made of the genetic suitability of the non‐native population. Three mitochondrial markers and two nuclear markers were sequenced to assess the genetic variation of the Victorian population of hog deer, which identified that the Victorian population has hybrid origins with the closely related chital (Axis axis), a species that is no longer present in the wild in Victoria. In addition, the mitochondrial D‐loop region within the Victorian hog deer is monomorphic, demonstrating that mitochondrial genetic diversity is very low within this population. This study is the first to report of long‐term persistence of hog deer and chital hybrids in a wild setting, and the continual survival of this population suggests that hybrids of these two species are fertile. Despite the newly discovered hybrid status in Victorian hog deer, this population may still be beneficial for future translocations within the native range. However, more in‐depth analysis of genetic diversity within the Victorian hog deer population and investigation of hybridization rates within the native range are necessary before translocations are attempted.     

Aboveground carbon sequestration in dry temperate forests varies with climate not fire regime

The storage of carbon in plant tissues and debris has been proposed as a method to offset anthropogenic increases in atmospheric [CO₂]. Temperate forests represent significant above‐ground carbon (AGC) “sinks” because their relatively fast growth and slow decay rates optimise carbon assimilation. Fire is a common disturbance event in temperate forests globally that should strongly influence AGC because: discrete fires consume above‐ground biomass releasing carbon to the atmosphere, and the long‐term application of different fire‐regimes select for specific plant communities that sequester carbon at different rates. We investigated the latter process by quantifying AGC storage at 104 sites in the Sydney Basin Bioregion, Australia, relative to differences in components of the fire regime: frequency, severity and interfire interval. To predict the potential impacts of future climate change on fire/AGC interactions, we stratified our field sites across gradients of mean annual temperature and precipitation and quantified within‐ and between‐factor interactions between the fire and climate variables. In agreement with previous studies, large trees were the primary AGC sink, accounting for ~70% of carbon at sites. Generalised additive models showed that mean annual temperature was the strongest predictor of AGC storage, with a 54% near‐linear decrease predicted across the 6.1°C temperature range experienced at sites. Mean annual precipitation, fire frequency, fire severity and interfire interval were consistently poor predictors of total above‐ground storage, although there were some significant relationships with component stocks. Our results show resilience of AGC to frequent and severe wildfire and suggest temperature mediated decreases in forest carbon storage under future climate change predictions.     

Influence of niche similarity on hybridization between Myriophyllum sibiricum and M. spicatum

The impact of ecological factors on natural hybridization is of widespread interest. Here, we asked whether climate niche influences hybridization between the two closely related plant species Myriophyllum sibiricum and M. spicatum. Eight microsatellite loci and two chloroplast fragments were used to investigate the occurrence of hybridization between these two species in two co‐occurring regions: north‐east China (NEC) and the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau (QTP). The climate niches of the species were quantified by principal component analysis with bioclimatic data, and niche comparisons were performed between the two species in each region. Reciprocal hybridization was observed, and M. sibiricum was favoured as the maternal species. Furthermore, hybrids were rare in NEC but common in the QTP. Accordingly, in NEC, the two species were climatically distinct, and hybrids only occurred in the narrow geographical or ecological transition zone, whereas in the QTP, obvious niche overlaps were found for the two species, and hybrids occurred in multiple contact zones. This association between hybridization pattern and climate niche similarity suggests that the level of hybridization was promoted by niche overlap. Compared with the parental species, similar climate niches were found for the hybrid populations in the QTP, indicating that other environmental factors rather than climate were important for hybrid persistence. Our findings highlight the significance of climate niche with respect to hybridization patterns in plants.     

Large‐scale variations in the vegetation growing season and annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 at high northern latitudes from 1950 to 2011

We combine satellite and ground observations during 1950–2011 to study the long‐term links between multiple climate (air temperature and cryospheric dynamics) and vegetation (greenness and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations) indicators of the growing season of northern ecosystems (>45°N) and their connection with the carbon cycle. During the last three decades, the thermal potential growing season has lengthened by about 10.5 days (P < 0.01, 1982–2011), which is unprecedented in the context of the past 60 years. The overall lengthening has been stronger and more significant in Eurasia (12.6 days, P < 0.01) than North America (6.2 days, P > 0.05). The photosynthetic growing season has closely tracked the pace of warming and extension of the potential growing season in spring, but not in autumn when factors such as light and moisture limitation may constrain photosynthesis. The autumnal extension of the photosynthetic growing season since 1982 appears to be about half that of the thermal potential growing season, yielding a smaller lengthening of the photosynthetic growing season (6.7 days at the circumpolar scale, P < 0.01). Nevertheless, when integrated over the growing season, photosynthetic activity has closely followed the interannual variations and warming trend in cumulative growing season temperatures. This lengthening and intensification of the photosynthetic growing season, manifested principally over Eurasia rather than North America, is associated with a long‐term increase (22.2% since 1972, P < 0.01) in the amplitude of the CO₂ annual cycle at northern latitudes. The springtime extension of the photosynthetic and potential growing seasons has apparently stimulated earlier and stronger net CO₂ uptake by northern ecosystems, while the autumnal extension is associated with an earlier net release of CO₂ to the atmosphere. These contrasting responses may be critical in determining the impact of continued warming on northern terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle.     

Changes in autumn vegetation dormancy onset date and the climate controls across temperate ecosystems in China from 1982 to 2010

Vegetation phenology is a sensitive indicator of the dynamic response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. In this study, the spatiotemporal pattern of vegetation dormancy onset date (DOD) and its climate controls over temperate China were examined by analysing the satellite‐derived normalized difference vegetation index and concurrent climate data from 1982 to 2010. Results show that preseason (May through October) air temperature is the primary climatic control of the DOD spatial pattern across temperate China, whereas preseason cumulative precipitation is dominantly associated with the DOD spatial pattern in relatively cold regions. Temporally, the average DOD over China's temperate ecosystems has delayed by 0.13 days per year during the past three decades. However, the delay trends are not continuous throughout the 29‐year period. The DOD experienced the largest delay during the 1980s, but the delay trend slowed down or even reversed during the 1990s and 2000s. Our results also show that interannual variations in DOD are most significantly related with preseason mean temperature in most ecosystems, except for the desert ecosystem for which the variations in DOD are mainly regulated by preseason cumulative precipitation. Moreover, temperature also determines the spatial pattern of temperature sensitivity of DOD, which became significantly lower as temperature increased. On the other hand, the temperature sensitivity of DOD increases with increasing precipitation, especially in relatively dry areas (e.g. temperate grassland). This finding stresses the importance of hydrological control on the response of autumn phenology to changes in temperature, which must be accounted in current temperature‐driven phenological models.     

Identifying refugia from climate change using coupled ecological and genetic data in a transitional Mediterranean‐temperate tree species

Populations occurring in areas of overlap between the current and future distribution of a species are particularly important because they can represent “refugia from climate change”. We coupled ecological and range‐wide genetic variation data to detect such areas and to evaluate the impacts of habitat suitability changes on the genetic diversity of the transitional Mediterranean‐temperate tree Fraxinus angustifolia. We sampled and genotyped 38 natural populations comprising 1006 individuals from across Europe. We found the highest genetic diversity in western and northern Mediterranean populations, as well as a significant west to east decline in genetic diversity. Areas of potential refugia that correspond to approximately 70% of the suitable habitat may support the persistence of more than 90% of the total number of alleles in the future. Moreover, based on correlations between Bayesian genetic assignment and climate, climate change may favour the westward spread of the Black Sea gene pool in the long term. Overall, our results suggest that the northerly core areas of the current distribution contain the most important part of the genetic variation for this species and may serve as in situ macrorefugia from ongoing climate change. However, rear‐edge populations of the southern Mediterranean may be exposed to a potential loss of unique genetic diversity owing to habitat suitability changes unless populations can persist in microrefugia that have facilitated such persistence in the past.     

Eco‐evolutionary responses of Bromus tectorum to climate change: implications for biological invasions

How plant populations, communities, and ecosystems respond to climate change is a critical focus in ecology today. The responses of introduced species may be especially rapid. Current models that incorporate temperature and precipitation suggest that future Bromus tectorum invasion risk is low for the Colorado Plateau. With a field warming experiment at two sites in southeastern Utah, we tested this prediction over 4 years, measuring B. tectorum phenology, biomass, and reproduction. In a complimentary greenhouse study, we assessed whether changes in field B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output influence offspring performance. We found that following a wet winter and early spring, the timing of spring growth initiation, flowering, and summer senescence all advanced in warmed plots at both field sites and the shift in phenology was progressively larger with greater warming. Earlier green‐up and development was associated with increases in B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output, likely due early spring growth, when soil moisture was not limiting, and a lengthened growing season. Seeds collected from plants grown in warmed plots had higher biomass and germination rates and lower mortality than seeds from ambient plots. However, in the following two dry years, we observed no differences in phenology between warmed and ambient plots. In addition, warming had a generally negative effect on B. tectorum biomass and reproduction in dry years and this negative effect was significant in the plots that received the highest warming treatment. In contrast to models that predict negative responses of B. tectorum to warmer climate on the Colorado Plateau, the effects of warming were more nuanced, relied on background climate, and differed between the two field sites. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interacting effects of temperature, precipitation, and site‐specific characteristics such as soil texture, on plant demography and have direct implications for B. tectorum invasion dynamics on the Colorado Plateau.