Phenology largely explains taller grass at successful nests in greater sage‐grouse

Much interest lies in the identification of manageable habitat variables that affect key vital rates for species of concern. For ground‐nesting birds, vegetation surrounding the nest may play an important role in mediating nest success by providing concealment from predators. Height of grasses surrounding the nest is thought to be a driver of nest survival in greater sage‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; sage‐grouse), a species that has experienced widespread population declines throughout their range. However, a growing body of the literature has found that widely used field methods can produce misleading inference on the relationship between grass height and nest success. Specifically, it has been demonstrated that measuring concealment following nest fate (failure or hatch) introduces a temporal bias whereby successful nests are measured later in the season, on average, than failed nests. This sampling bias can produce inference suggesting a positive effect of grass height on nest survival, though the relationship arises due to the confounding effect of plant phenology, not an effect on predation risk. To test the generality of this finding for sage‐grouse, we reanalyzed existing datasets comprising >800 sage‐grouse nests from three independent studies across the range where there was a positive relationship found between grass height and nest survival, including two using methods now known to be biased. Correcting for phenology produced equivocal relationships between grass height and sage‐grouse nest survival. Viewed in total, evidence for a ubiquitous biological effect of grass height on sage‐grouse nest success across time and space is lacking. In light of these findings, a reevaluation of land management guidelines emphasizing specific grass height targets to promote nest success may be merited.     

Timing of nest vegetation measurement may obscure adaptive significance of nest‐site characteristics: A simulation study

Advances in understanding avian nesting ecology are hindered by a prevalent lack of agreement between nest‐site characteristics and fitness metrics such as nest success. We posit this is a result of inconsistent and improper timing of nest‐site vegetation measurements. Therefore, we evaluated how the timing of nest vegetation measurement influences the estimated effects of vegetation structure on nest survival. We simulated phenological changes in nest‐site vegetation growth over a typical nesting season and modeled how the timing of measuring that vegetation, relative to nest fate, creates bias in conclusions regarding its influence on nest survival. We modeled the bias associated with four methods of measuring nest‐site vegetation: Method 1—measuring at nest initiation, Method 2—measuring at nest termination regardless of fate, Method 3—measuring at nest termination for successful nests and at estimated completion for unsuccessful nests, and Method 4—measuring at nest termination regardless of fate while also accounting for initiation date. We quantified and compared bias for each method for varying simulated effects, ranked models for each method using AIC, and calculated the proportion of simulations in which each model (measurement method) was selected as the best model. Our results indicate that the risk of drawing an erroneous or spurious conclusion was present in all methods but greater with Method 2 which is the most common method reported in the literature. Methods 1 and 3 were similarly less biased. Method 4 provided no additional value as bias was similar to Method 2 for all scenarios. While Method 1 is seldom practical to collect in the field, Method 3 is logistically practical and minimizes inherent bias. Implementation of Method 3 will facilitate estimating the effect of nest‐site vegetation on survival, in the least biased way, and allow reliable conclusions to be drawn.     

Timing of vegetation sampling does not influence associations between visual obstruction and turkey nest survival in a montane forest

Evaluating relationships between ecological processes that occur concurrently is complicated by the potential for such processes to covary. Ground‐nesting birds rely on habitat characteristics that provide visual and olfactory concealment from predators; this protection often is provided by vegetation at the nest site. Recently, researchers have raised concern that measuring vegetation characteristics at nest fate (success or failure) introduces a bias, as vegetation at successful nests is measured later in the growing season (and has more time to grow) compared with failed nests. In some systems, this bias can lead to an erroneous conclusion that plant height is positively associated with nest survival. However, if the features that provide concealment are invariant during the incubation period, no bias should be expected, and the timing of measurement is less influential. We used data collected from 98 nests to evaluate whether there is evidence that such a bias exists in a study of wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) nesting in a montane forest ecosystem. We modeled nest survival as a function of visual obstruction and other covariates of interest. At unsuccessful nests, we collected visual obstruction readings at both the date of nest failure and the projected hatch date and compared survival estimates generated using both sets of vegetation data. In contrast to studies in grassland and shrubland systems, we found little evidence that the timing of vegetation sampling influenced conclusions regarding the association between visual obstruction and nest survival; model selection and estimates of nest survival were similar regardless of when vegetation data were collected. The dominant hiding cover at most of our nests was provided by evergreen shrubs; retention of leaves and slow growth of these plants likely prevent appreciable changes in visual obstruction during the incubation period. When considered in aggregate with a growing body of literature, our results suggest that the influence of timing of vegetation sampling depends on the study system. When designing future studies, investigators should carefully consider the type of structures that provide nest concealment and whether plant phenology is confounded with nest survival.     

Vegetation phenology and nest survival: Diagnosing heterogeneous effects through time

Birds should select nest sites that minimize predation risk, but understanding the influence of vegetation on nest survival has proven problematic. Specifically, the common practice of measuring vegetation on nest fate date can overestimate its effect on nest survival, simply because vegetation at hatched nests grows for a longer period of time than vegetation at nests that were depredated. Here, we sampled the literature to determine the prevalence of this bias in studies of duck breeding ecology. We then used survival data collected from ~2,800 duck nests to empirically evaluate evidence of bias in four different vegetation metrics: vegetation density measured when the nest was found, density when the nest was fated, and date‐corrected regression residuals of these two. We also diagnosed the magnitude of vegetation effects on nest survival by restricting our analysis to only nests which were fated contemporaneously (thereby removing potential bias in the timing of measurement). Finally, we examined whether systematic phenological differences exist between vegetation at hatched and depredated nests that have the potential to further obfuscate the relationship between vegetation and nest survival. We found evidence for a true‐positive effect of vegetation density on nest survival that appeared to be inflated when using raw vegetation measurements collected at fate date. However, taken in combination with the literature review, our results suggest that the majority of duck nesting studies have evaluated the role of vegetation on nest survival using a relatively less biased metric—vegetation density when the nest was found. Finally, we found that over the course of a nesting attempt, vegetation increased in density at successful nests, but decreased in density at depredated nests. As a consequence, duck researchers using vegetation data collected when the nest was found may actually be underestimating the magnitude of the effect. This seasonal change potentially points to an important new metric for understanding predation risk, but further experimental research is required to fully eliminate potential biases in the timing of vegetation measurements.     

Nest Success of Gunnison Sage-Grouse in Colorado,USA

Gunnison Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus minimus) is a species of concern for which little demographic information exists. To help fill this information gap, we investigated factors affecting nest success in two populations of Gunnison Sage-Grouse. We assessed the relative effects of (1) vegetation characteristics (e.g., shrub height, shrub cover, grass cover, and grass height), (2) temporal factors (e.g., year, timing of incubation initiation, and nest age), (3) precipitation, and (4) age of the nesting female (yearling or adult) on nest success rates. We found 177 nests in the Gunnison Basin population (that contains 85–90% of the species) from 2005–2010 and 20 nests in the San Miguel population (that contains < 10% of the species) from 2007–2010. Temporal factors had the greatest impact on nest success compared to vegetation characteristics, precipitation, and female age. Nest success varied considerably among years ranging from 4.0%-60.2% in Gunnison Basin and from 12.9%- 51.9% in San Miguel. Nests that were initiated earlier in the breeding season had higher nest success (at least one egg hatches). Daily nest survival rates decreased during the course of incubation. None of the vegetation characteristics we examined were strongly related to nest success.     

A nondestructive method for estimating the age of Clapper Rail eggs

ABSTRACT.   Estimates of nest survival rate are often based on the assumption that the rate is constant during the nest cycle. Because violating this assumption can generate biased estimates, determining the age of a nest is important. For precocial marsh birds, including Clapper Rails ( Rallus longirostris ), current estimates of nest survival do not take this source of bias into account because a standardized, nondestructive method for aging eggs in not available. We developed a nondestructive flotation technique using known-age nests that can be used to estimate the projected hatch date of Clapper Rail eggs within 3 d of the actual hatch date. This precision is limited in part due to variance in the length of incubation between nests and the common occurrence of asynchronous hatching. However, for investigators assessing the fate of Clapper Rail nests, our technique provides an effective and nondestructive method for projecting the hatch date of Clapper Rail eggs, and will facilitate unbiased estimates of nest survival rates.     

Ecological Factors Influencing Nest Survival of Greater Sage-Grouse in Mono County,California

ABSTRACT We studied nest survival of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in 5 subareas of Mono County, California, USA, from 2003 to 2005 to 1) evaluate the importance of key vegetation variables for nest success, and 2) to compare nest success in this population with other greater sage-grouse populations. We captured and radiotracked females (n = 72) to identify nest sites and monitor nest survival. We measured vegetation at nest sites and within a 10-m radius around each nest to evaluate possible vegetation factors influencing nest survival. We estimated daily nest survival and the effect of explanatory variables on daily nest survival using nest-survival models in Program MARK. We assessed effects on daily nest survival of total, sagebrush (Artemisia spp.), and nonsagebrush live shrub-cover, Robel visual obstruction, the mean of grass residual height and grass residual cover measurements within 10 m of the nest shrub, and area of the shrub, shrub height, and shrub type at the nest site itself. Assuming a 38-day exposure period, we estimated nest survival at 43.4%, with percent cover of shrubs other than sagebrush as the variable most related to nest survival. Nest survival increased with increasing cover of shrubs other than sagebrush. Also, daily nest survival decreased with nest age, and there was considerable variation in nest survival among the 5 subareas. Our results indicate that greater shrub cover and a diversity of shrub species within sagebrush habitats may be more important to sage-grouse nest success in Mono County than has been reported elsewhere.     

Factors affecting hatch success of hawksbill sea turtles on Long Island, Antigua, West Indies

Current understanding of the factors influencing hawksbill sea turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata) hatch success is disparate and based on relatively short-term studies or limited sample sizes. Because global populations of hawksbills are heavily depleted, evaluating the parameters that impact hatch success is important to their conservation and recovery. Here, we use data collected by the Jumby Bay Hawksbill Project (JBHP) to investigate hatch success. The JBHP implements saturation tagging protocols to study a hawksbill rookery in Antigua, West Indies. Habitat data, which reflect the varied nesting beaches, are collected at egg deposition, and nest contents are exhumed and categorized post-emergence. We analyzed hatch success using mixed-model analyses with explanatory and predictive datasets. We incorporated a random effect for turtle identity and evaluated environmental, temporal and individual-based reproductive variables. Hatch success averaged 78.6% (SD: 21.2%) during the study period. Highly supported models included multiple covariates, including distance to vegetation, deposition date, individual intra-seasonal nest number, clutch size, organic content, and sand grain size. Nests located in open sand were predicted to produce 10.4 more viable hatchlings per clutch than nests located >1.5 m into vegetation. For an individual first nesting in early July, the fourth nest of the season yielded 13.2 more viable hatchlings than the initial clutch. Generalized beach section and inter-annual variation were also supported in our explanatory dataset, suggesting that gaps remain in our understanding of hatch success. Our findings illustrate that evaluating hatch success is a complex process, involving multiple environmental and individual variables. Although distance to vegetation and hatch success were inversely related, vegetation is an important component of hawksbill nesting habitat, and a more complete assessment of the impacts of specific vegetation types on hatch success and hatchling sex ratios is needed. Future research should explore the roles of sand structure, nest moisture, and local weather conditions.     

Nest‐site selection by Blue‐black Grassquits in a Neotropical savanna: do choices influence nest success?

ABSTRACT.   Nest-site choice affects individual fitness and possibly reflects natural selection of the capacity of individuals to select appropriate microhabitat features. From 2003 to 2005, we examined nest-site characteristics and nesting success of Blue-black Grassquits ( Volatinia jacarina ) in central Brazil. We compared the characteristics of nest sites and nonused sites, as well as the characteristics of successful and unsuccessful nests. Grassquit nest sites were structurally more complex than nonused sites. Shrub height and the interaction between vegetation height and percentage of ground coverage were the most important predictors of nest placement. Grassquits used only four (20%) of the 20 grass species in the study area, with Paspalum pectinatum used less than expected based on availability and Melinis minutiflora more than expected. The only variable that differed between unsuccessful and successful nests was the distance to nearest conspecific nest; the latter were about twice as far from neighboring nests as unsuccessful nests. The evaluation of microhabitat candidate models indicated that the daily survival probability of nests varied chiefly as a function of the interaction between their external height and inner depth. Greater survival occurred when the external height was minimized in combination with augmentation of internal depth of the nest cup. The link between nest success and the inverse association of external height and internal depth suggests that minimizing the visual cues of nest presence while maintaining a viable incubation chamber can positively affect nest success. Thus, we suggest that nest concealment is the most critical attribute associated with nest site choice for Blue-black Grassquits in the study area. Vegetation cover above the nest seems to be particularly important, perhaps as a strategy to deter visually oriented aerial predators.     

Managing multiple vital rates to maximize greater sage-grouse population growth

Despite decades of field research on greater sage-grouse, range-wide demographic data have yet to be synthesized into a sensitivity analysis to guide management actions. We reviewed range-wide demographic rates for greater sage-grouse from 1938 to 2011 and used data from 50 studies to parameterize a 2-stage, female-based population matrix model. We conducted life-stage simulation analyses to determine the proportion of variation in population growth rate (λ) accounted for by each vital rate, and we calculated analytical sensitivity, elasticity, and variance-stabilized sensitivity to identify the contribution of each vital rate to λ. As expected for an upland game bird, greater sage-grouse showed marked annual and geographic variation in several vital rates. Three rates were demonstrably important for population growth: female survival, chick survival, and nest success. Female survival and chick survival, in that order, had the most influence on λ per unit change in vital rates. However, nest success explained more of the variation in λ than did the survival rates. In lieu of quantitative data on specific mortality factors driving local populations, we recommend that management efforts for greater sage-grouse first focus on increasing female survival by restoring large, intact sagebrush-steppe landscapes, reducing persistent sources of human-caused mortality, and eliminating anthropogenic habitat features that subsidize species that prey on juvenile, yearling, and adult females. Our analysis also supports efforts to increase chick survival and nest success by eliminating anthropogenic habitat features that subsidize chick and nest predators, and by managing shrub, forb, and grass cover, height, and composition to meet local brood-rearing and nesting habitat guidelines. We caution that habitat management to increase chick survival and nest success should not reduce the cover or height of sagebrush below that required for female survival in other seasons (e.g., fall, winter). The success or failure of management actions for sage-grouse should be assessed by measuring changes in vital rates over long time periods to avoid confounding with natural, annual variation. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Factors Affecting Songbird Nest Survival in Northern Mixed-Grass Prairie

ABSTRACT Factors associated with the nest survival of mixed-grass prairie passerines are not well known, especially in the context of contemporary grassland management. We documented the nest survival of clay-colored sparrows (Spizella pallida), savannah sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis), and bobolinks (Dolichonyx oryzivorus) in managed prairie in northwestern North Dakota, USA. We used logistic exposure models and an information-theoretic framework to estimate nest survival and evaluate support for mechanisms (grazing, temporal factors, nest parasitism, nest-site vegetation, and nest-patch factors) relevant to nest survival. Survival for the entire nesting interval (23–28 days) was low for clay-colored sparrow (18.2%), savannah sparrow (15.5%), and bobolink (3.5%). We found support for a cubic effect of nest age; survival of savannah and clay-colored sparrow nests was greatest during mid-incubation and least during the mid-nestling period. Parasitized clay-colored sparrow and bobolink nests had greater survival rates than nonparasitized nests. Nest survival of clay-colored sparrows increased with increasing vegetation height and density. For savannah sparrows, nest survival was lower when cattle were present than when cattle were absent. Characteristics of the nest patch did not have strong effects based on model coefficients and confidence intervals, though they appeared in many of the most supported models. Positive effects of vegetation height and density on nest survival of clay-colored sparrows and negative effects of cattle presence on nest survival of savannah sparrows suggest some detrimental effects of grazing. However, the need to restore and maintain intact prairies likely warrants the continuation of cattle grazing on conservation lands.     

Density-dependent nest predation – an experiment with simulated Mallard nests in contrasting landscapes

Breeding success is a key element of animal population dynamics. In many taxa including birds, nest success, or the proportion of laid clutches that actually hatch, is mainly determined by predation. Previous research gives an inconsistent picture of the prevalence of density-dependent nest predation and one reason for this is the general lack of well-designed replicated experiments. Using simulated Mallard Anas platyrhynchos nests and a crossover design for 20 lakes in the nemoral and boreal biotic zones, we tested the predictions that nest survival is negatively density-dependent and that nest predation is higher in agricultural than in forested landscapes. Study day and daily abundance of waterfowl, other waterbirds, as well as avian predators were included as covariates in the analysis. Model fitting in program mark revealed a general negative effect of nest density on nest survival. In addition, nest survival rate was higher at forest lakes than at lakes in agricultural landscapes, irrespective of nest density. The only covariate producing model improvement was study day; older nests had higher survival rates than recently initiated ones. This is the first replicated lake-level experimental study showing that nest predation is density-dependent in waterfowl. The pattern was consistent between landscape types, implying that density-dependent nest predation may affect habitat choice and population dynamics over large parts of the Mallard's range.     

Spatial Variation in Lesser Prairie-Chicken Demography: A Sensitivity Analysis of Population Dynamics and Management Alternatives

ABSTRACT The lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) is currently considered a candidate for protection under the Endangered Species Act. To identify potential limiting factors for lesser prairie-chicken populations, we developed an age-based matrix model of lesser prairie-chicken population dynamics to compare the relative importance of components of reproduction and survival, and determine if various management alternatives stabilize or increase rates of population change. We based our analyses on an intensive 6-year population study from which demographic rates were estimated for each age class in Kansas. We used deterministic models and elasticity values to identify parameters predicted to have the greatest effect on the rate of population change (λ) at 2 study sites. Last, we used life-stage simulation analysis to simulate various management alternatives. Lambda was <1 for both populations (site 1: λ = 0.54, site 2: λ = 0.74). However, we found differences in sensitivity to nest success and chick survival between populations. The results of the simulated management scenarios complemented the lower-level elasticity analysis and indicated the relative importance of female survival during the breeding season compared with winter. If management practices are only capable of targeting a single demographic rate, changes to either nest success or chick survival had the greatest impact on λ at site 1 and 2, respectively. Management that simultaneously manipulated both nest success and chick survival was predicted to have a greater effect on λ than changes in survival of adult females. In practice, our demographic analyses indicate that effective management should be based on habitat conservation measures to increase components of fecundity.     

Plasticity of nest-site selection in the trumpeter finch: A comparison between two different habitats

In habitats with more predators, a species is expected to breed in safer sites and be less successful than in predator-impoverished habitats. We tested this hypothesis by studying nest-habitat selection and nest predation in two populations of Trumpeter finch (Bucanetes githagineus). One breeds in a predator-rich habitat (Tabernas, Iberian Peninsula), and the other is found on an island with fewer predators (La Oliva, Canary Islands). In both localities, we studied the features of nests in two different substrates, on the ground and in cliffs, including visibility and position in the cliff. We measured the habitat characteristics in a series of plots around the ground nests and compared them to random points. We also studied the influence of nest features and habitat selection on predation of both nest types. Trumpeter finches built more nests in cliffs in Tabernas, probably because there are more cliffs available there. In this locality, the patches selected for ground nesting had below-average vegetation cover, lower vegetation height, and were on steeper slopes. In La Oliva, they selected above-average vegetation height and steeper slopes. Cliff nests were less predated than ground nests in La Oliva, but not in Tabernas. The only variable that affected survival rates in Tabernas was the height of vegetation around ground nests, with nests in lower vegetation having higher survival rates. These results suggest that locality-related differences in habitat selection by vegetation height could be related to the different predator assemblages present in any given area, though we cannot rule out confounding influences of other differences between the two sites.     

Interactive effects of time and vegetation on reproduction of redshanks (Tringa totanus) breeding in Wadden Sea salt marshes

As shown for various species, nesting waders are non-randomly distributed on wetlands and preferentially select riparian nest-sites adjacent to limnic or marine waterbodies. Studying the redshank Tringa totanus, we tested the hypotheses that, in a coastal wader species which conceals its clutch in vegetation, predation and hatching success are affected by vegetation zonation, and that breeding in lower salt marsh areas has negative consequences for reproduction. We further predicted effects of timing of breeding and breeding experience/age of adults potentially reflected by egg biometrics both on nest-site selection and reproduction. Effects of vegetation, space, time and individual quality on hatching success of redshanks were studied in the German part of the Wadden Sea. Dominant plant species, vertical vegetation structure and nest concealment varied significantly between nests. Variation in nest concealment was relatively low: about 90% of clutches were classified as being well concealed. This variation was explainable by vegetation structure but not by vegetation composition at the nest-site, distance to shoreline, and time of clutch initiation. Vertical vegetation structure varied by dominant plant species but not by distance to shoreline and time of clutch initiation. Hatching success of clutches was low (10.6%) due to high predation (daily predation rate: 7.4%). Hatching success and duration of clutch survival were negatively and predation positively related to the date of clutch initiation. Furthermore, negative relationships were found between egg size and predation and duration of survival, respectively. We assume that concealed nests, early breeding and breeding experience diminish predation in salt marsh breeding redshanks. Thus, redshank reproduction appears to be affected by interactive effects of timing of breeding and vegetation facilitating early breeding. In contrast to open-nesting species, breeding in riparian habitats next to waterbodies may be disadvantageous for species breeding concealed in vegetation if these are covered by less structured vegetation.     

Using remote cameras to validate estimates of nest fate in shorebirds

Nest survival is a key demographic parameter, yet little effort has been made to improve the accuracy of field‐based methods for assigning nest fates to shorebird nests. We used remote cameras to validate estimates of nest fate from field methods and to assess variation in accuracy of nest‐fate assignment for Snowy Plover Charadrius nivosus in Utah, USA. We correctly identified the fates of 84% of nests in the field, and photos from camera monitoring revealed incorrect assignments for 22% of successful nests and 7% of depredated nests. Traditional field methods could be improved by checking nests more frequently when hatching date nears and spending additional time searching for eggshell evidence, especially when nests are in areas susceptible to weather disturbance.     

Survival of Dusky Canada Goose Goslings in Relation to Weather and Annual Nest Success

Abstract The dusky Canada goose (Branta canadensis occidentalis) population has been in long-term decline, likely due to reduced breeding productivity, but gosling survival of this population had not been examined. We studied gosling survival in broods of radiomarked adult females on the western Copper River Delta, Alaska, USA, during 1997–1999 and 2001–2003. Survival estimates for dusky Canada goose goslings to 45 days (x̄ = 0.32) were below estimates from most previous studies of geese. Daily survival of goslings increased with age and decreased with date of hatch. Precipitation during the first 3 days post-hatch was negatively related to gosling survival and this effect increased with date. Annual estimates of gosling survival were positively correlated with annual estimates of nest success, suggesting overlap in factors affecting nest and gosling survival. Nest success probably also directly affected gosling survival, because survival decreased with hatch date and more broods hatched from renests during years with low nest success. Gosling survival appears to play an important role in limiting current productivity of this population. Management directed at increasing nest success would likely also improve gosling survival. We recommend additional research directed at examining sources of gosling mortality and the link between nest success and gosling survival.     

Nest‐site selection by golden plover: why do shorebirds avoid nesting on slopes?

It is widely known that many upland-breeding shorebirds tend to nest on plateaus but to date no studies have put forward explanations for this phenomenon. We examined the effect of slope and habitat on the distribution of ground-nesting golden plover Pluvialis apricaria at two study sites in County Durham, U.K. Golden plovers showed strong selection for nesting on flat ground. Habitat significantly affected nest-site location on one study site (heather burnt within the past 2 years was favoured and older stands of heather were avoided) but not on the other. Fifty-nine per cent of all nests failed. We attributed 95% of all losses to predation. Seventy-five per cent of nests, in which the predator was identified, were taken by ground predators, mainly stoats Mustela erminea . Nests on flat ground had significantly higher rates of survival than those on slopes. Nest survival did not vary significantly with habitat type nor with vegetation height or density around the nest. Neither habitat type, vegetation height nor vegetation density around nests differed between nests on slopes and on flat ground. In addition, individuals that nested on flat ground tended to have less black on their underparts (a suggested indicator of dominance). We suggest that birds nesting on slopes are less efficient at avoiding nest predation than those nesting on the flat. The nature or degree of a bird's response to a predator may be related to the efficiency of individual anti-predator responses and/or to visibility from the nest. This study cannot differentiate between these two explanations. We encourage further work to investigate differences in behaviour between individuals nesting on slopes and those on flat ground.     

Hatch Success and Recruitment Patterns of the Bog Turtle

Researchers suggest that several bog turtle (Glyptemys muhlenbergii) populations in North Carolina, USA, are in decline and have few remaining individuals and low annual survival probability. Most populations are dominated by older adults with few juveniles encountered; however, the proportion of juveniles encountered in 2 populations is higher. It is unknown why the juvenile:adult ratio varies among populations. We conducted a nest monitoring study in 2016 and 2017 to test the hypothesis that sites with fewer juvenile encounters would be where nest predation was highest. We documented the fate of 272 eggs from 83 nests encountered across 7 sites in North Carolina. On average 28% of eggs hatched across all sites over both years, but we observed large variation in hatch success among sites. Predation by mesopredators and small mammals was the primary cause of nest failure. The probability of nest predation decreased with greater emergent vegetation density and increased with greater distance to the edge of the wetland. Cooler temperatures, which prolonged incubation and thus increased predation risk, may also hinder recruitment at higher elevation sites. Our observations are consistent with the hypothesis that nest predation would be highest at sites with fewer juvenile encounters. Managers concerned about low bog turtle recruitment rates should consider the role of nest predation and the potential benefits of management that increases hatch rates. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Causes and consequences of fine-scale breeding dispersal in a female-philopatric species

The potentially confounded effects of factors affecting breeding dispersal have rarely been simultaneously examined. The consequences of breeding dispersal are even less studied, presenting a paradox: breeding dispersal seldom seems to improve breeding success, despite its presumed adaptiveness. We studied the causes and consequences of breeding dispersal in female-philopatric eiders (Somateria mollissima) in relation to the spatiotemporal predictability of nest success. Previous nest fate, breeding experience, and breeding density simultaneously affected breeding dispersal. Dispersal distances were longer among inexperienced breeders and after failed breeding. Individual dispersal distances decreased with increasing nest-site-specific breeding density, whereas island-specific nesting success peaked at intermediate densities. The fate of neighbouring nests (‘public information’) did not influence dispersal. Breeding dispersal was unrelated to subsequent hatching success, controlling for individual quality (body condition, breeding experience, previous nest fate), while it delayed hatch date, which is likely to impair reproductive success. This delay may result from the loss of acquired information of local breeding conditions, prolonging nest prospecting and establishment, also helping explain why breeding dispersal did not increase at high breeding densities, despite a potential reduction in nesting success. In long-lived species, however, dispersal-induced reductions in reproductive output in one season could be offset by improved parental survival prospects. Careful nest prospecting may be profitable, because overall nest success had a strong island-specific component but showed weak temporal variation, and successive individual nest fates were predictable between years. Once a safe nest site is found, females may breed at the same place successfully for many years.