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1.
《Global Change Biology》2017,23(11):4556-4568
Somatic growth is an integrated, individual‐based response to environmental conditions, especially in ectotherms. Growth dynamics of large, mobile animals are particularly useful as bio‐indicators of environmental change at regional scales. We assembled growth rate data from throughout the West Atlantic for green turtles, Chelonia mydas, which are long‐lived, highly migratory, primarily herbivorous mega‐consumers that may migrate over hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Our dataset, the largest ever compiled for sea turtles, has 9690 growth increments from 30 sites from Bermuda to Uruguay from 1973 to 2015. Using generalized additive mixed models, we evaluated covariates that could affect growth rates; body size, diet, and year have significant effects on growth. Growth increases in early years until 1999, then declines by 26% to 2015. The temporal (year) effect is of particular interest because two carnivorous species of sea turtles—hawksbills, Eretmochelys imbricata, and loggerheads, Caretta caretta—exhibited similar significant declines in growth rates starting in 1997 in the West Atlantic, based on previous studies. These synchronous declines in productivity among three sea turtle species across a trophic spectrum provide strong evidence that an ecological regime shift (ERS) in the Atlantic is driving growth dynamics. The ERS resulted from a synergy of the 1997/1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—the strongest on record—combined with an unprecedented warming rate over the last two to three decades. Further support is provided by the strong correlations between annualized mean growth rates of green turtles and both sea surface temperatures (SST) in the West Atlantic for years of declining growth rates (r = −.94) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for all years (r = .74). Granger‐causality analysis also supports the latter finding. We discuss multiple stressors that could reinforce and prolong the effect of the ERS. This study demonstrates the importance of region‐wide collaborations. 相似文献
2.
Age‐specific vibrissae growth rates: A tool for determining the timing of ecologically important events in Steller sea lions 下载免费PDF全文
Lorrie D. Rea Aaron M. Christ Alison B. Hayden Vicki K. Stegall Sean D. Farley Craig A. Stricker Jo‐Ann E. Mellish John M. Maniscalco Jason N. Waite Vladimir N. Burkanov Kenneth W. Pitcher 《Marine Mammal Science》2015,31(3):1213-1233
Steller sea lions (SSL; Eumetopias jubatus) grow their vibrissae continually, providing a multiyear record suitable for ecological and physiological studies based on stable isotopes. An accurate age‐specific vibrissae growth rate is essential for registering a chronology along the length of the record, and for interpreting the timing of ecologically important events. We utilized four methods to estimate the growth rate of vibrissae in fetal, rookery pup, young‐of‐the‐year (YOY), yearling, subadult, and adult SSL. The majority of vibrissae were collected from SSL live‐captured in Alaska and Russia between 2000 and 2013 (n = 1,115), however, vibrissae were also collected from six adult SSL found dead on haul‐outs and rookeries during field excursions to increase the sample size of this underrepresented age group. Growth rates of vibrissae were generally slower in adult (0.44 ± 0.15 cm/mo) and subadult (0.61 ± 0.10 cm/mo) SSL than in YOY (0.87 ± 0.28 cm/mo) and fetal (0.73 ± 0.05 cm/mo) animals, but there was high individual variability in these growth rates within each age group. Some variability in vibrissae growth rates was attributed to the somatic growth rate of YOY sea lions between capture events (P = 0.014, r2 = 0.206, n = 29). 相似文献
3.
State–space mark–recapture estimates reveal a recent decline in abundance of North Atlantic right whales 下载免费PDF全文
North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis Müller 1776) present an interesting problem for abundance and trend estimation in marine wildlife conservation. They are long lived, individually identifiable, highly mobile, and one of the rarest of cetaceans. Individuals are annually resighted at different rates, primarily due to varying stay durations among several principal habitats within a large geographic range. To date, characterizations of abundance have been produced that use simple accounting procedures with differing assumptions about mortality. To better characterize changing abundance of North Atlantic right whales between 1990 and 2015, we adapted a state–space formulation with Jolly‐Seber assumptions about population entry (birth and immigration) to individual resighting histories and fit it using empirical Bayes methodology. This hierarchical model included accommodation for the effect of the substantial individual capture heterogeneity. Estimates from this approach were only slightly higher than published accounting procedures, except for the most recent years (when recapture rates had declined substantially). North Atlantic right whales' abundance increased at about 2.8% per annum from median point estimates of 270 individuals in 1990 to 483 in 2010, and then declined to 2015, when the final estimate was 458 individuals (95% credible intervals 444–471). The probability that the population's trajectory post‐2010 was a decline was estimated at 99.99%. Of special concern was the finding that reduced survival rates of adult females relative to adult males have produced diverging abundance trends between sexes. Despite constraints in recent years, both biological (whales' distribution changing) and logistical (fewer resources available to collect individual photo‐identifications), it is still possible to detect this relatively recent, small change in the population's trajectory. This is thanks to the massive dataset of individual North Atlantic right whale identifications accrued over the past three decades. Photo‐identification data provide biological information that allows more informed inference on the status of this species. 相似文献
4.
Climate change leads to differential shifts in the timing of annual cycle stages in a migratory bird 下载免费PDF全文
Barbara M. Tomotani Henk van der Jeugd Phillip Gienapp Iván de la Hera Jos Pilzecker Corry Teichmann Marcel E. Visser 《Global Change Biology》2018,24(2):823-835
Shifts in reproductive phenology due to climate change have been well documented in many species but how, within the same species, other annual cycle stages (e.g. moult, migration) shift relative to the timing of breeding has rarely been studied. When stages shift at different rates, the interval between stages may change resulting in overlaps, and as each stage is energetically demanding, these overlaps may have negative fitness consequences. We used long‐term data of a population of European pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) to investigate phenological shifts in three annual cycle stages: spring migration (arrival dates), breeding (egg‐laying and hatching dates) and the onset of postbreeding moult. We found different advancements in the timing of breeding compared with moult (moult advances faster) and no advancement in arrival dates. To understand these differential shifts, we explored which temperatures best explain the year‐to‐year variation in the timing of these stages, and show that they respond differently to temperature increases in the Netherlands, causing the intervals between arrival and breeding and between breeding and moult to decrease. Next, we tested the fitness consequences of these shortened intervals. We found no effect on clutch size, but the probability of a fledged chick to recruit increased with a shorter arrival‐breeding interval (earlier breeding). Finally, mark–recapture analyses did not detect an effect of shortened intervals on adult survival. Our results suggest that the advancement of breeding allows more time for fledgling development, increasing their probability to recruit. This may incur costs to other parts of the annual cycle, but, despite the shorter intervals, there was no effect on adult survival. Our results show that to fully understand the consequences of climate change, it is necessary to look carefully at different annual cycle stages, especially for organisms with complex cycles, such as migratory birds. 相似文献
5.
JONATHAN K. WEBB 《Austral ecology》2006,31(4):432-440
Abstract Many animals autotomize their tails to facilitate escape from predators. Although tail autotomy can increase the likelihood of surviving a predatory encounter, it may entail subsequent costs, including reduced growth, loss of energy stores, a reduction in reproductive output, loss of social status and a decreased probability of survival during subsequent encounters with predators. To date, few studies have investigated the potential fitness costs of tail autotomy in natural populations. I investigated whether tail loss influenced survival, growth and territory occupation of juvenile velvet geckos Oedura lesueurii in a population where predatory snakes were common. During the 3‐year mark–recapture study, 32% of juveniles voluntarily autotomized their tails when first captured. Analysis of survival using the program mark showed that voluntary tail autotomy did not influence the subsequent survival of juvenile geckos. Survival was age‐dependent and was higher in 1‐year‐old animals (0.98) than in hatchlings (0.76), whereas recapture probabilities were time‐dependent. Growth rates of tailed and tailless juveniles were very similar, but tailless geckos had slow rates of tail regeneration (0.14 mm day−1). Tail autotomy did not influence rock usage by geckos, and both tailed and tailless juveniles used few rocks as diurnal retreat sites (means of 1.64 and 1.47 rocks, respectively) and spent long time periods (85 and 82 days) under the same rocks. Site fidelity may confer survival advantages to juveniles in populations sympatric with ambush foraging snakes. My results show that two potential fitness costs of tail autotomy – decreased growth rates and a lower probability of survival – did not occur in juveniles from this population. However, compared with juveniles, significantly fewer adult geckos (17%) voluntarily autotomized their tails during capture. Because adults possess large tails that are used for lipid storage, the energetic costs of tail autotomy are likely to be much higher in adult than in juvenile O. lesueurii. 相似文献
6.
Attraction of wild‐like and colony‐reared Bactrocera cucurbitae (Diptera:Tephritidae) to cuelure in the field 下载免费PDF全文
The attraction of wild tephritids to semiochemical‐based lures is the ideal basis for trap network design in detection programmes, but in practice, mass‐reared colony insects are usually used to determine trap efficiency. For Bactrocera cucurbitae Coquillett, a lower response by wild males compared with colony‐derived individuals, usually used to estimate attraction parameters, could mean that the sensitivity of detection networks targeting this pest is reduced. We describe the results of mark–release–recapture experiments with wild‐ and colony‐derived B. cucurbitae males in a grid of cuelure‐baited traps within a macadamia nut orchard in Hawaii Island designed to quantify the attraction of cuelure to each fly type. For colony males, we estimate a 65% probability of capture at 27 m, intermediate with previous estimates on the attraction of methyl eugenol to Bactrocera dorsalis Hendel (36 m) and trimedlure to Ceratitis capitata Wiedemann (14 m) at the same site. Results suggest similar response over distance by wild‐derived B. cucurbitae compared with colony in the field, but there may be qualitative differences in response between wild and colony based on very low response of wild males in a standard bioassay of attraction. For both fly types, the estimates of attraction in the smaller of two grid sizes tested were lower than for the larger spacing, suggesting trap competition was a factor at an intertrap distance of 75 m. Dispersal patterns within the grid were generally to the south for the colony‐derived males and more variable for the wild‐derived males. In neither case was the direction of recapture correlated with the prevailing direction of the wind. 相似文献
7.
Post‐fragmentation population structure in a cooperative breeding Afrotropical cloud forest bird: emergence of a source‐sink population network 下载免费PDF全文
The impact of demographic parameters on the genetic population structure and viability of organisms is a long‐standing issue in the study of fragmented populations. Demographic and genetic tools are now readily available to estimate census and effective population sizes and migration and gene flow rates with increasing precision. Here we analysed the demography and genetic population structure over a recent 15‐year time span in five remnant populations of Cabanis's greenbul (Phyllastrephus cabanisi), a cooperative breeding bird in a severely fragmented cloud forest habitat. Contrary to our expectation, genetic admixture and effective population sizes slightly increased, rather than decreased between our two sampling periods. In spite of small effective population sizes in tiny forest remnants, none of the populations showed evidence of a recent population bottleneck. Approximate Bayesian modelling, however, suggested that differentiation of the populations coincided at least partially with an episode of habitat fragmentation. The ratio of meta‐Ne to meta‐Nc was relatively low for birds, which is expected for cooperative breeding species, while Ne/Nc ratios strongly varied among local populations. While the overall trend of increasing population sizes and genetic admixture may suggest that Cabanis's greenbuls increasingly cope with fragmentation, the time period over which these trends were documented is rather short relative to the average longevity of tropical species. Furthermore, the critically low Nc in the small forest remnants keep the species prone to demographic and environmental stochasticity, and it remains open if, and to what extent, its cooperative breeding behaviour helps to buffer such effects. 相似文献
8.
Toe clipping is widely used to permanently mark many species of small vertebrates including marsupials, particularly didelphids and dasyurids. Small marsupials are marked as juveniles, by removing the tip of developing toe buds. It has recently been shown that survival and/or recapture probability decreases with increasing number of toes clipped in frogs. Because of this and other animal welfare concerns, toe clipping of adult vertebrates is increasingly being discouraged. The short‐ and long‐term effects of toe‐bud clipping have not been evaluated in marsupials. We used an experiment to test if marking more toes results in slower growth or higher mortality in the brown antechinus (Antechinus stuartii, Dasyuridae) in the short or long term. We found no harmful effects of toe‐bud clipping. There were no infections associated with clipping, marking more toes did not reduce growth in young or adults, and did not affect survival of young in captivity, survival of independent animals in the wild, or recapture probability. Toe‐bud clipping is done at an extremely immature stage, when the area cut is tiny and perception and memory of pain is unlikely to be a problem. We suggest that toe‐bud clipping is a humane and benign method of permanently marking antechinuses, and probably also the young of other morphologically similar small marsupials. 相似文献
9.
Patterns of sex‐biased dispersal (SBD) are typically consistent within taxa, for example female‐biased in birds and male‐biased in mammals, leading to theories about the evolutionary pressures that lead to SBD. However, generalizations about the evolution of sex biases tend to overlook that dispersal is mediated by ecological factors that vary over time. We examined potential temporal variation in between‐ and within‐population dispersal over an 11‐year period in a bird, the dark‐eyed junco (Junco hyemalis). We measured between‐population dispersal patterns using genetic assignment indices and found yearly variation in which sex was more likely to have immigrated. When we measured within‐population spatial genetic structure and mark–recapture dispersal distances, we typically found yearly SBD patterns that mirrored between‐population dispersal, indicating common eco‐evolutionary causes despite expected differences due to the scale of dispersal. However, in years without detectable between‐population sex biases, we found genetic similarity between nearby males within our population. This suggests that, in certain circumstances, ecological pressures may act on within‐population dispersal without affecting dispersal between populations. Alternatively, current analytical tools may be better able to detect within‐population SBD. Future work will investigate potential causes of the observed temporal variation in dispersal patterns and whether they have greater effects on within‐population dispersal. 相似文献
10.
Richard B. Sherley Fitsum Abadi Katrin Ludynia Barbara J. Barham Allan E. Clark Res Altwegg 《Ibis》2014,156(4):716-728
Reliable estimates of survival and dispersal are crucial to understanding population dynamics, but for seabirds, in which some individuals spend years away from land, mortality and emigration are often confounded. Multistate mark–recapture methods reduce bias by incorporating movement into the process of estimating survival. We used a multistate model to provide unbiased age‐specific survival and movement probabilities for the Endangered African Penguin Spheniscus demersus based on 5281 nestlings and 31 049 adults flipper‐banded and resighted in the Western Cape, South Africa, between 1994 and 2012. Adult survival was initially high (≥ 0.74) but declined after 2003–2004 coincident with a reduction in the availability of Sardine Sardinops sagax and Anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus on the west coast of South Africa. Juvenile survival was poorly estimated, but was lower and more variable than adult survival. Fidelity to the locality of origin varied over time, but was high in adults at Robben and Dassen islands (≥ 0.88) and above 0.55 for juvenile and immature Penguins at all localities. Movement occurred predominantly during 1994–2003 and was indicative of immigration to Robben and Dassen islands. Our results confirm that a prolonged period of adult mortality contributed to the observed decline in the African Penguin population and suggest a need for approaches operating over large spatial scales to ensure food security for marine top predators. 相似文献
11.
Aly McKnight Erik J. Blomberg Gregory H. Golet David B. Irons Cynthia S. Loftin Shawn T. McKinney 《Journal of avian biology》2018,49(8)
Trade‐offs between current and future reproduction are central to the evolution of life histories. Experiments that manipulate brood size provide an effective approach to investigating future costs of current reproduction. Most manipulative studies to date, however, have addressed only the short‐term effects of brood size manipulation. Our goal was to determine whether survival or breeding costs of reproduction in a long‐lived species manifest beyond the subsequent breeding season. To this end, we investigated long‐term survival and breeding effects of a multi‐year reproductive cost experiment conducted on black‐legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla, a long‐lived colonial nesting seabird. We used multi‐state capture–recapture modeling to assess hypotheses regarding the role of experimentally reduced breeding effort and other factors, including climate phase and colony size and productivity, on future survival and breeding probabilities during the 16‐yr period following the experiment. We found that forced nest failures had a positive effect on breeding probability over time, but had no effect on long‐term survival. This apparent canalization of survival suggests that adult survival is the most important parameter influencing fitness in this long‐lived species, and that adults should pay reproductive costs in ways that do not compromise this critical life history parameter. When declines in adult survival rate are observed, they may indicate populations of conservation concern. 相似文献
12.
Validation of photo‐identification as a mark–recapture method in the spotted eagle ray Aetobatus narinari 下载免费PDF全文
M. S. González‐Ramos A. Santos‐Moreno E. F. Rosas‐Alquicira G. Fuentes‐Mascorro 《Journal of fish biology》2017,90(3):1021-1030
The spotted eagle ray Aetobatus narinari is characterized by pigmentation patterns that are retained for up to 3·5 years. These pigmentations can be used to identify individuals through photo‐identification. Only one study has validated this technique, but no study has estimated the percentage of correct identification of the rays using this technique. In order to carry out demographic research, a reliable photographic identification technique is needed. To achieve this validation for A. narinari, a double‐mark system was established over 11 months and photographs of the dorsal surface of 191 rays were taken. Three body parts with distinctive natural patterns were analysed (dorsal surface of the cephalic region, dorsal surface of the pectoral fins and dorsal surface of the pelvic fins) in order to determine the body part that could be used to give the highest percentage of correct identification. The dorsal surface of the pectoral fins of A. narinari provides the most accurate photo‐identification to distinguish individuals (88·2%). 相似文献
13.
Clare L. Casteel Chunling Yang Ananya C. Nanduri Hannah N. De Jong Steven A. Whitham Georg Jander 《The Plant journal : for cell and molecular biology》2014,77(4):653-663
Many plant viruses depend on aphids and other phloem‐feeding insects for transmission within and among host plants. Thus, viruses may promote their own transmission by manipulating plant physiology to attract aphids and increase aphid reproduction. Consistent with this hypothesis, Myzus persicae (green peach aphids) prefer to settle on Nicotiana benthamiana infected with Turnip mosaic virus (TuMV) and fecundity on virus‐infected N. benthamiana and Arabidopsis thaliana (Arabidopsis) is higher than on uninfected controls. TuMV infection suppresses callose deposition, an important plant defense, and increases the amount of free amino acids, the major source of nitrogen for aphids. To investigate the underlying molecular mechanisms of this phenomenon, 10 TuMV genes were over‐expressed in plants to determine their effects on aphid reproduction. Production of a single TuMV protein, nuclear inclusion a‐protease domain (NIa‐Pro), increased M. persicae reproduction on both N. benthamiana and Arabidopsis. Similar to the effects that are observed during TuMV infection, NIa‐Pro expression alone increased aphid arrestment, suppressed callose deposition and increased the abundance of free amino acids. Together, these results suggest a function for the TuMV NIa‐Pro protein in manipulating the physiology of host plants. By attracting aphid vectors and promoting their reproduction, TuMV may influence plant–aphid interactions to promote its own transmission. 相似文献
14.
Estimating population density as precise as possible is a key premise for managing wild animal species. This can be a challenging task if the species in question is elusive or, due to high quantities, hard to count. We present a new, mathematically derived estimator for population size, where the estimation is based solely on the frequency of genetically assigned parent–offspring pairs within a subsample of an ungulate population. By use of molecular markers like microsatellites, the number of these parent–offspring pairs can be determined. The study's aim was to clarify whether a classical capture–mark–recapture (CMR) method can be adapted or extended by this genetic element to a genetic‐based capture–mark–recapture (g‐CMR). We numerically validate the presented estimator (and corresponding variance estimates) and provide the R‐code for the computation of estimates of population size including confidence intervals. The presented method provides a new framework to precisely estimate population size based on the genetic analysis of a one‐time subsample. This is especially of value where traditional CMR methods or other DNA‐based (fecal or hair) capture–recapture methods fail or are too difficult to apply. The DNA source used is basically irrelevant, but in the present case the sampling of an annual hunting bag is to serve as data basis. In addition to the high quality of muscle tissue samples, hunting bags provide additional and essential information for wildlife management practices, such as age, weight, or sex. In cases where a g‐CMR method is ecologically and hunting‐wise appropriate, it enables a wide applicability, also through its species‐independent use. 相似文献
15.
Life‐histories and demographic parameters of southern temperate bird species have been little studied. We estimated return rates between years and sexes, and adult apparent survival and recapture probabilities with mark–recapture data on White‐rumped Swallows and found a lower return rate of unsuccessful females. There was little support for influences of sex or year on survival rates. The estimates were equivalent to the lowest value reported for a northern congener, in contrast to the prediction of geographical variation under life‐history theory. 相似文献
16.
ADAM12‐deficient zebrafish exhibit retardation in body growth at the juvenile stage without developmental defects 下载免费PDF全文
Zi Wang Satoshi Ansai Masato Kinoshita Atsuko Sehara‐Fujisawa 《Development, growth & differentiation》2016,58(4):409-421
ADAM (a d isintegrin a nd m etalloprotease) constitutes a family of multi‐domain proteins that are involved in development, homeostasis, and disease. ADAM12 plays important roles in myogenesis and adipogenesis in mice; however, the precise physiological mechanisms are not known, and the function of this gene in other vertebrates has not been examined. In this study, we used a simple model vertebrate, the zebrafish, to investigate the functions of ADAM12 during development. Zebrafish adam12 is conserved with those of mammals in the synteny and the amino‐acid sequence. We examined adam12 expression in zebrafish embryos by whole mount in situ hybridization and the promoter activity of the adam12 upstream sequence. We found that adam12 is strongly expressed in the cardiovascular system, erythroid progenitors, brain, and jaw cartilage during zebrafish development, and adam12‐knockout zebrafish exhibited reduced body size in the juvenile stage without apparent morphological defects. Taken together, these results suggest that adam12 plays a significant role in the regulation of body growth during juvenile stage in zebrafish, although the precise molecular mechanisms await further study. 相似文献
17.
Marina Jimnez‐Muoz Diana J. Cole Stephen N. Freeman Robert A. Robinson Stephen R. Baillie Eleni Matechou 《Ecology and evolution》2019,9(2):769-779
Bird ring‐recovery data have been widely used to estimate demographic parameters such as survival probabilities since the mid‐20th century. However, while the total number of birds ringed each year is usually known, historical information on age at ringing is often not available. A standard ring‐recovery model, for which information on age at ringing is required, cannot be used when historical data are incomplete. We develop a new model to estimate age‐dependent survival probabilities from such historical data when age at ringing is not recorded; we call this the historical data model. This new model provides an extension to the model of Robinson, 2010, Ibis, 152, 651–795 by estimating the proportion of the ringed birds marked as juveniles as an additional parameter. We conduct a simulation study to examine the performance of the historical data model and compare it with other models including the standard and conditional ring‐recovery models. Simulation studies show that the approach of Robinson, 2010, Ibis, 152, 651–795 can cause bias in parameter estimates. In contrast, the historical data model yields similar parameter estimates to the standard model. Parameter redundancy results show that the newly developed historical data model is comparable to the standard ring‐recovery model, in terms of which parameters can be estimated, and has fewer identifiability issues than the conditional model. We illustrate the new proposed model using Blackbird and Sandwich Tern data. The new historical data model allows us to make full use of historical data and estimate the same parameters as the standard model with incomplete data, and in doing so, detect potential changes in demographic parameters further back in time. 相似文献
18.
Assessing forest vulnerability to climate warming using a process‐based model of tree growth: bad prospects for rear‐edges 下载免费PDF全文
Raúl Sánchez‐Salguero Jesus Julio Camarero Emilia Gutiérrez Fidel González Rouco Antonio Gazol Gabriel Sangüesa‐Barreda Laia Andreu‐Hayles Juan Carlos Linares Kristina Seftigen 《Global Change Biology》2017,23(7):2705-2719
Growth models can be used to assess forest vulnerability to climate warming. If global warming amplifies water deficit in drought‐prone areas, tree populations located at the driest and southernmost distribution limits (rear‐edges) should be particularly threatened. Here, we address these statements by analyzing and projecting growth responses to climate of three major tree species (silver fir, Abies alba; Scots pine, Pinus sylvestris; and mountain pine, Pinus uncinata) in mountainous areas of NE Spain. This region is subjected to Mediterranean continental conditions, it encompasses wide climatic, topographic and environmental gradients, and, more importantly, it includes rear‐edges of the continuous distributions of these tree species. We used tree‐ring width data from a network of 110 forests in combination with the process‐based Vaganov–Shashkin‐Lite growth model and climate–growth analyses to forecast changes in tree growth during the 21st century. Climatic projections were based on four ensembles CO2 emission scenarios. Warm and dry conditions during the growing season constrain silver fir and Scots pine growth, particularly at the species rear‐edge. By contrast, growth of high‐elevation mountain pine forests is enhanced by climate warming. The emission scenario (RCP 8.5) corresponding to the most pronounced warming (+1.4 to 4.8 °C) forecasted mean growth reductions of ?10.7% and ?16.4% in silver fir and Scots pine, respectively, after 2050. This indicates that rising temperatures could amplify drought stress and thus constrain the growth of silver fir and Scots pine rear‐edge populations growing at xeric sites. Contrastingly, mountain pine growth is expected to increase by +12.5% due to a longer and warmer growing season. The projections of growth reduction in silver fir and Scots pine portend dieback and a contraction of their species distribution areas through potential local extinctions of the most vulnerable driest rear‐edge stands. Our modeling approach provides accessible tools to evaluate forest vulnerability to warmer conditions. 相似文献
19.
Activity‐specific metabolic rates for diving,transiting, and resting at sea can be estimated from time–activity budgets in free‐ranging marine mammals 下载免费PDF全文
Tiphaine Jeanniard‐du‐Dot Andrew W. Trites John P. Y. Arnould John R. Speakman Christophe Guinet 《Ecology and evolution》2017,7(9):2969-2976
Time and energy are the two most important currencies in animal bioenergetics. How much time animals spend engaged in different activities with specific energetic costs ultimately defines their likelihood of surviving and successfully reproducing. However, it is extremely difficult to determine the energetic costs of independent activities for free‐ranging animals. In this study, we developed a new method to calculate activity‐specific metabolic rates, and applied it to female fur seals. We attached biologgers (that recorded GPS locations, depth profiles, and triaxial acceleration) to 12 northern (Callorhinus ursinus) and 13 Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella), and used a hierarchical decision tree algorithm to determine time allocation between diving, transiting, resting, and performing slow movements at the surface (grooming, etc.). We concomitantly measured the total energy expenditure using the doubly‐labelled water method. We used a general least‐square model to establish the relationship between time–activity budgets and the total energy spent by each individual during their foraging trip to predict activity‐specific metabolic rates. Results show that both species allocated similar time to diving (~29%), transiting to and from their foraging grounds (~26–30%), and resting (~8–11%). However, Antarctic fur seals spent significantly more time grooming and moving slowly at the surface than northern fur seals (36% vs. 29%). Diving was the most expensive activity (~30 MJ/day if done non‐stop for 24 hr), followed by transiting at the surface (~21 MJ/day). Interestingly, metabolic rates were similar between species while on land or while slowly moving at the surface (~13 MJ/day). Overall, the average field metabolic rate was ~20 MJ/day (for all activities combined). The method we developed to calculate activity‐specific metabolic rates can be applied to terrestrial and marine species to determine the energetic costs of daily activities, as well as to predict the energetic consequences for animals forced to change their time allocations in response to environmental shifts. 相似文献