The effect of density-dependent treatment and behavior change on the dynamics of HIV transmission

In this work, we propose a model for heterosexual transmission of HIV/AIDS in a population of varying size with an intervention program in which treatment and/or behavior change of the infecteds occur as an increasing function of the density of the infected class in the population. This assumption has socio-economic implications which is important for public health considerations since density-dependent treatment/behavior change may be more cost-saving than a program where treatment/behavior change occurs linearly with respect to the number of infecteds. We will make use of the conservation law of total sexual contacts which enables us to reduce the two-sex model to a simpler one-sex formulation. Analytical results will be given. Unlike a similar model with linear treatment/behavior change in Hsieh (1996) where conditions were obtained for the eradication of disease, we will show that density-dependent treatment/behavior change cannot eradicate the disease if the disease is able to persist without any treatment/behavior change. This work demonstrates the need to further understand how treatment/behavior change occurs in a society with varying population.     

Analysis of a disease transmission model in a population with varying size

An S I R S epidemiological model with vital dynamics in a population of varying size is discussed. A complete global analysis is given which uses a new result to establish the nonexistence of periodic solutions. Results are discussed in terms of three explicit threshold parameters which respectively govern the increase of the total population, the existence and stability of an endemic proportion equilibrium and the growth of the infective population. These lead to two distinct concepts of disease eradication which involve the total number of infectives and their proportion in the population.Partially supported by NSF Grant No. DMS-8703631. This work was done while this author was visiting the University of VictoriaResearch supported in part by NSERC A-8965     

Effects of education, vaccination and treatment on HIV transmission in homosexuals with genetic heterogeneity

Genetic studies report the existence of a mutant allele Delta32 of CCR5 chemokine receptor gene at high allele frequencies (approximately 10%) in Caucasian populations. The presence of this allele is believed to provide partial or full resistance to HIV. In this study, we look at the impact of education, temporarily effective vaccines and therapies on the dynamics of HIV in homosexually active populations. In our model, it is assumed that some individuals possess one or two mutant alleles (like Delta32 of CCR5) that prevent the successful invasion or replication of HIV. Our model therefore differentiates by genetic and epidemiological status and naturally ignores the reproduction process. Furthermore, HIV infected individuals are classified as rapid, normal or slow progressors. In this complex setting, the basic reproductive number R0 is derived in various situations. The separate or combined effects of therapies, education, vaccines, and genetic resistance are analyzed. Our results support the conclusions of Hsu Schmitz that some integrated intervention strategies are far superior to those based on a single approach. However, treatment programs may have effects which counteract each other, as may genetic resistance.     

Modelling HIV/AIDS in the presence of an HIV testing and screening campaign

Preventing and managing the HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa will dominate the next decade and beyond. Reduction of new HIV infections by implementing a comprehensive national HIV prevention programme at a sufficient scale to have real impact remains a priority. In this paper, a deterministic HIV/AIDS model that incorporates condom use, screening through HIV counseling and testing (HCT), regular testing and treatment as control strategies is proposed with the objective of quantifying the effectiveness of HCT in preventing new infections and predicting the long-term dynamics of the epidemic. It is found that a backward bifurcation occurs if the rate of screening is below a certain threshold, suggesting that the classical requirement for the basic reproduction number to be below unity though necessary, is not sufficient for disease control in this case. The global stabilities of the equilibria under certain conditions are determined in terms of the model reproduction number R₀. Numerical simulations are performed and the model is fitted to data on HIV prevalence in South Africa. The effects of changes in some key epidemiological parameters are investigated. Projections are made to predict the long-term dynamics of the disease. The epidemiological implications of such projections on public health planning and management are discussed.     

Founder effects, inbreeding and effective sizes in the Southern cattle tick: the effect of transmission dynamics and implications for pest management

Since its immigration in the Pacific island of New Caledonia in 1942 (i.e. about 240 tick-generations ago), the cattle tick Boophilus microplus has experienced a remarkable adaptive diversification there. In order to better understand the population factors involved, we have investigated the B. microplus population structure on that main host-species, Bos taurus. This study was based microsatellite loci and confirmed that the island colonization came along with a significant bottleneck. Knowledge on B. microplus biology led us to expect B. microplus populations to be composed of highly inbred lineages irregularly dispatched among the individual hosts belonging to the same herds. Instead, this study evidenced a weak inbreeding level and an absence of genetic differentiation within herds. Complementarily, a significant signal of isolation by distance exhibited that human-traffic of cattle does not promote high tick dispersal within the island. Finally, the tick density was found to be about a few hundreds of reproducing adults per squared kilometre, for a gene dispersal range of about a few hundred metres per tick generation. Results are discussed with regard to the evolution of new adaptive changes.     

Effects of treatment and drug resistance on the transmission dynamics of malaria in endemic areas

We present a mathematical model for malaria treatment and spread of drug resistance in an endemic population. The model considers treated humans that remain infectious for some time and partially immune humans who are also infectious to mosquitoes although their infectiousness is always less than their non immune counterparts. The model is formulated by considering delays in the latent periods in both mosquito and human populations and in the period within which partial immunity is lost. Qualitative analysis of the model including positivity and boundedness of solutions is performed. Analysis of the reproductive numbers shows that if the treated humans become immediately uninfectious to mosquitoes then treatment will always reduce the number of sensitive infections. If however treated humans are infectious then for treatment to effectively reduce the number of sensitive infections, the ratio of the infectious period of the treated humans to the infectious period of the untreated humans multiplied by the ratio of the transmission rate from a treated human to the transmission rate of an untreated human should be less than one. Our results show that the spread of drug resistance with treatment as a control strategy depends on the ratio of the infectious periods of treated and untreated humans and on the transmission rates from infectious humans with resistant and sensitive infections. Numerical analysis is performed to assess the effects of treatment on the spread of resistance and infection. The study provides insight into the possible intervention strategies to be employed in malaria endemic populations with resistant parasites by identifying important parameters.     

Use of an individual-based model to forecast the effect of climate change on the dynamics, abundance and geographical range of the pest slug Deroceras reticulatum in the UK

Slugs are serious agricultural pests and their activity is strongly driven by ambient temperature and soil moisture. The strength of this relationship has been shown through the development of a deterministic model, based upon temperature and soil moisture conditions alone, which accurately describes the population dynamics and abundance of Deroceras reticulatum . Because of this strong climatic dependence, slug abundance and dynamics are likely to be affected by climate change. We used a validated individual-based model (IbM) of D. reticulatum , to assess the effects of climate change on the abundance of this species in the UK. Climatic scenarios were based on the UKCIP02 predictions and constructed using the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator. The IbM of slugs predicted population dynamics at three time slices (2020s, 2050s and 2080s), and two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. The maximum generation number, the number of population peaks, the number of slug-days in each season, the percentage of years when the population passes over a threshold for damage and the percentage of years in which populations go extinct were investigated. Currently, the south-west of the UK has the best conditions for D. reticulatum to thrive, with the north-east of Scotland having the most adverse. By 2080 under both low- and high-emissions scenarios, the north and west of Scotland will have the most favourable conditions for the survival of this species and the east of the UK and Scotland will have the harshest. By 2080 the climate in the north-west of Scotland will become more like the current climate in south-east England, which explains the shift in the pattern of abundance. The north-west of Scotland will have increased slug damage and south-west England and west-Wales will have decreased slug damage with some changes becoming evident by 2020.     

Relationship between behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia and oral health status in the elderly with vascular dementia

doi: 10.1111/j.1741‐2358.2012.00664.x Relationship between behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia and oral health status in the elderly with vascular dementia Objectives: The aim of this study was to clarify the relationship between behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia (BPSD) and oral status in the elderly with vascular dementia. Background: There have been some reports of a relationship between disease symptoms and oral status in the elderly with Alzheimer’s disease, but few reports have been conducted in the elderly with vascular dementia. Until now, the relationship between BPSD and oral status has been unknown. Materials and methods: An investigation was conducted concerning BPSD and oral status among 57 subjects with vascular dementia (mean age, 85.7 ± 5.5 years). The wearing of dentures and oral activities of daily living (oral ADL) were examined. Results: Subjects with activity disturbances and those with aggressiveness had significantly lower rates of denture wearing than those without these two symptoms (p < 0.05). Significantly lower oral ADL scores were obtained from subjects with delusional ideas, hallucinations, activity disturbances and diurnal rhythm disturbances (p < 0.05), as well as those with affective disturbances (p < 0.01). Conclusion: This study indicated a relationship between BPSD and the wearing of dentures in the elderly with vascular dementia. The study also demonstrated relationships between BPSD and oral ADL.     

Extreme weather change and the dynamics of oviposition behavior in the pipevine swallowtail, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Battus philenor</Emphasis>

Prospects of global increases in extreme weather change provide incentive to examine how such change influences animal behavior, for example, behavior associated with resource use. In this study, we examined how oviposition behavior in a southern Arizona population of pipevine swallowtails (Battus philenor L.) responded to changes in their Aristolochia host resource and vegetative background caused by the North American monsoon system. Summer monsoon rains resulted in a flush of non-host vegetation and a more than doubling in rate of landings by host-searching females on non-host vegetation. Rates of discovery of the host species A. watsoni Woot. Standl. decreased by 50% after monsoon rains. Rains did not alter host density appreciably, but resulted in significant increases in host plant size and new growth, two indicators of host suitability for B. philenor larvae. After the rains, mean clutch size on individual host plants increased by a factor of 2.5; the mean proportion of host plants encountered on which a female laid eggs also increased significantly. Females were discriminating about the host plants on which they laid eggs after alightment; plants accepted for oviposition were larger, bore more new growth, and bore fewer larvae than rejected plants. Contrary to predictions from foraging theory, degree of discrimination did not change seasonally. Finally, the rate at which eggs were laid increased seasonally, suggesting that oviposition rates were limited more before monsoon rains by the relatively low quality of hosts than they were after the rains by the relatively low rate at which hosts were found. This latter result suggests that, while butterflies possess behavioral flexibility to respond to extreme weather change, such flexibility may have limits. In particular, expected increases in the severity and frequency of droughts may result in reduced oviposition rates, reductions that could have adverse demographic consequences.     

The role of screening and treatment in the transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis co-infection: a mathematical study

In this paper, we present a deterministic non-linear mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of HIV and TB co-infection and analyze it in the presence of screening and treatment. The equilibria of the model are computed and stability of these equilibria is discussed. The basic reproduction numbers corresponding to both HIV and TB are found and we show that the disease-free equilibrium is stable only when the basic reproduction numbers for both the diseases are less than one. When both the reproduction numbers are greater than one, the co-infection equilibrium point may exist. The co-infection equilibrium is found to be locally stable whenever it exists. The TB-only and HIV-only equilibria are locally asymptotically stable under some restriction on parameters. We present numerical simulation results to support the analytical findings. We observe that screening with proper counseling of HIV infectives results in a significant reduction of the number of individuals progressing to HIV. Additionally, the screening of TB reduces the infection prevalence of TB disease. The results reported in this paper clearly indicate that proper screening and counseling can check the spread of HIV and TB diseases and effective control strategies can be formulated around ‘screening with proper counseling’.     

Increasing population and declining biological resources in the context of global change and globalization

In the context of over-consumption of natural resources in the name of development and rapid industrialization by a small section of the human population that is rapidly growing, the world is currently faced with a variety of environmental uncertainties. ‘Global change’ covering a whole variety of ecological issues, and ‘globalization’ in an economic sense, are two major phenomena that are responsible for these uncertainties. There is increasing evidence to suggest that the developing countries more than the developed, particularly the marginalized traditional (those living close to nature and natural resources) societies would be the worst sufferers. In order to cope with this problem in a situation where the traditional societies have to cope with rapidly depleting biodiversity on which they are dependant for their livelihood, there is an urgent need to explore additional pathways for sustainable management of natural resources and societal development. Such pathways should be based on a landscape management strategy, that takes into consideration the rich traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) that these societies have. This is critical because TEK is the connecting link between conservation and sustainable development. This paper explores the possibilities in this direction through a balanced approach to development, that links the ‘traditional’ with the ‘modern’, in a location-specific way.     

Vascular plant diversity and climate change in the alpine belt of the central Apennines (Italy)

The aim of this study is to analyse the vascular flora and the local climate along the altitude gradient in the largest alpine belt of the central Apennines (Majella National Park), and to contribute to the evaluation of the possible effects of global climate changes on the biodiversity of the alpine ecosystem. For this purpose floristic-quantitative analyses and temperature records on three different summits have been carried out by using the methodological protocol of the UE-GLORIA project (2001 2003); the project aims toward a standardised monitoring of flora and temperature in the alpine environment of the main European chains. From the analysis of the changes in species richness along the altitude gradient (2405 m versus 2730 m a.s.l.), it emerged that 70% of species do not reach the highest summit and only 11% of the overall flora is shared by all of the summits examined; a drop in mean temperature has been observed at soil level, along the same gradient from 3.11 to 0.03 °C. Floristic-quantitative and climatic analyses have been carried out even along the horizontal gradient (principal exposures), highlighting a great species richness and vegetation cover in eastward aspects. We singled out some endangered rare species and we proved that the slopes facing east will be the first to be affected by the coming of subalpine species from below, whereas northward exposures will be the most conservative, showing greater inertia toward the invasive process caused by the climate warming.     

Ambient temperature effects on the extrinsic incubation period of Wuchereria bancrofti in Aedes polynesiensis: implications for filariasis transmission dynamics and distribution in French Polynesia.

Temperature effects on development of the human filarial parasite Wuchereria bancrofti (Cobbold) (Filaridea: Onchocercidae) in the main Pacific vector Aedes polynesiensis Marks (Diptera: Culicidae) are analysed in relation to ambient climatic conditions. A statistical model of the extrinsic cycle duration as a function of temperature is described and used to distinguish three patterns of W. bancrofti transmission dynamics: continuous, fluctuating and discontinuous, occurring from north to south geographically among French Polynesian archipelagos. In the northerly Marquesas Islands (8-11 degrees S) filariasis transmission is continuous and very active, facilitated by perennially high temperatures combined with constantly high rates of man-vector contact. In the southerly Australes Islands (21-28 degrees S) filariasis transmission is seasonally discontinuous and, during the cooler months (May-September), the model predicts virtually no transmission because the cycle duration exceeds the life expectancy of the vector. In the Society Islands (16-18 degrees S), between the Marquesas and Australes, transmission is predicted to be intermediate as expected from their latitude, with seasonally fluctuating transmission potential. In the Tuamotu Islands (also geographically intermediate: 14-23 degrees S), with theoretically perennial transmission potential, transmission occurs only intermittently, being limited by other human and environmental factors whereby man-vector contact is confined to seasonal agricultural situations. Generally, among French Polynesian archipelagos where Aedes polynesiensis is the vector, the transmission potential for W. bancrofti and resulting disease manifestations of lymphatic filariasis in humans are correlated with ambient temperature due to the degree of southern latitude.     

“Third‐wave” cognitive and behavioral therapies and the emergence of a process‐based approach to intervention in psychiatry

For decades, cognitive and behavioral therapies (CBTs) have been tested in randomized controlled trials for specific psychiatric syndromes that were assumed to represent expressions of latent diseases. Although these protocols were more effective as compared to psychological control conditions, placebo treatments, and even active pharmacotherapies, further advancement in efficacy and dissemination has been inhibited by a failure to focus on processes of change. This picture appears now to be evolving, due both to a collapse of the idea that mental disorders can be classified into distinct, discrete categories, and to the more central attention given to processes of change in newer, so‐called “third‐wave” CBTs. Here we review the context for this historic progress and evaluate the impact of these newer methods and models, not as protocols for treating syndromes, but as ways of targeting an expanded range of processes of change. Five key features of “third‐wave” therapies are underlined: a focus on context and function; the view that new models and methods should build on other strands of CBT; a focus on broad and flexible repertoires vs. an approach to signs and symptoms; applying processes to the clinician, not just the client; and expanding into more complex issues historically more characteristic of humanistic, existential, analytic, or system‐oriented approaches. We argue that these newer methods can be considered in the context of an idiographic approach to process‐based functional analysis. Psychological processes of change can be organized into six dimensions: cognition, affect, attention, self, motivation and overt behavior. Several important processes of change combine two or more of these dimensions. Tailoring intervention strategies to target the appropriate processes in a given individual would be a major advance in psychiatry and an important step toward precision mental health care.     

Identification and genetic effect of haplotype in the bovine BMP7 gene

Bone morphogenetic proteins (BMPs) are peptide growth factors belonging to the transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-β) superfamily, and some members of the BMP family support white adipocyte differentiation. In this study, we focused on the BMP7 which singularly promotes the differentiation of brown preadipocytes. Haplotypes involving 5 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) sites in the bovine BMP7 gene were identified and their effect on body weight was analyzed. 16 haplotypes and 18 combined haplotypes were revealed and the linkage disequilibrium was assessed in the cattle population with 602 individuals representing three main cattle breeds from China. The results showed that haplotypes 3, 10 and 14 were predominant and accounted for 75.64%, 69.85%, and 83.36% in Nanyang, Qinchuan and Jiaxian cattle breeds, respectively. The statistical analyses indicated that the SNP 1, 4, and 5 are associated with the body weight, body length, and heart girth at 12 and 24 months in Nanyang cattle population (P < 0.05), whereas there is no significant association between their 16 haplotypes and 18 combined haplotypes. Our results provide evidence that some SNPs and haplotypes in BMP7 are associated with growth traits, and may be utilized as a genetic marker in marker-assisted selection for beef cattle breeding programs.