Tool for Estimating the Risk of Anthropogenic Spread of Batrachochytrium denrobatidis Between Water Bodies

Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a chytrid fungus, which has been associated with numerous amphibian mortality events around the world. It is hypothesized that Bd was inadvertently spread through human activities. We have developed a basic risk assessment tool to better understand the potential risk of transferring Bd between water bodies through field activities, and to target disinfection strategies which reduce the risk of spreading Bd. The questions in the risk assessment focus on the likelihood of Bd being present at sites, the likelihood of transferring the pathogen from one site to another, and the impact of transferring the pathogen. Identified risk factors include the presence of amphibians in the visited areas, the presence of Bd in one or more of the sites and in the surrounding area, the number of visitors to the sites, direct contact with amphibians, and the sharing of equipment between sites. The risk assessment tool can be found on the Internet at: .     

Infection with Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis is common in tropical lowland habitats: Implications for amphibian conservation

Numerous species of amphibians declined in Central America during the 1980s and 1990s. These declines mostly affected highland stream amphibians and have been primarily linked to chytridiomycosis, a deadly disease caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Since then, the majority of field studies on Bd in the Tropics have been conducted in midland and highland environments (>800 m) mainly because the environmental conditions of mountain ranges match the range of ideal abiotic conditions for Bd in the laboratory. This unbalanced sampling has led researchers to largely overlook host–pathogen dynamics in lowlands, where other amphibian species declined during the same period. We conducted a survey testing for Bd in 47 species (n = 348) in four lowland sites in Costa Rica to identify local host–pathogen dynamics and to describe the abiotic environment of these sites. We detected Bd in three sampling sites and 70% of the surveyed species. We found evidence that lowland study sites exhibit enzootic dynamics with low infection intensity and moderate to high prevalence (55% overall prevalence). Additionally, we found evidence that every study site represents an independent climatic zone, where local climatic differences may explain variations in Bd disease dynamics. We recommend more detection surveys across lowlands and other sites that have been historically considered unsuitable for Bd occurrence. These data can be used to identify sites for potential disease outbreaks and amphibian rediscoveries.     

The distribution of macroinvertebrates and fishes in Tasmanian estuaries

The distributions of 390 taxa of benthic macroinvertebrates collected in forty-eight estuaries and 101 fish species collected in seventy-five Tasmanian estuaries were related to geographical and environmental variables. Distribution patterns for the two taxonomic groups were largely congruent at both between and within-estuary scales. Faunal composition and the number of species collected at a site were primarily related to site salinity, the biomass of seagrass and tidal range. At the broader estuary scale, the distributions of macroinvertebrate and fish assemblages were primarily correlated with the presence of an entrance bar. Species richness varied with geographical location for both macrofauna and fishes, with highest numbers of species occurring in the Furneaux Group, north-eastern Tasmania and south-eastern Tasmania. These patterns primarily reflected differences in estuary type between regions rather than concentrations of locally endemic species. Although the majority of species collected during the study were marine vagrants, they constituted a very low proportion of total animal densities within estuaries. Only four species considered exotic to Tasmania were identifed. Nearly all species recorded from Tasmanian estuaries occurred widely within the state and have also been recorded in south-eastern Australia. Only 1% of estuarine fish species and < 5% of invertebrate species were considered endemic to the state. The generally wide ranges of species around Tasmania were complicated by (i) the absence of most species from the west coast (ii) a small (< 10%) component of species that occurred only in the north-east and Furneaux Group (eastern Bass Strait), and (iii) a few species (< 5%) restricted to other regions. The low number of species recorded from estuaries along the western Tasmanian coast reflected extremely low faunal biomass in that area. This depression in biomass on the west coast was attributed to unusually low concentrations of dissolved nutrients in rivers and dark tannin-stained waters which greatly restricted algal photosynthesis and primary production.     

Prevalence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in Agalychnis moreletii (Hylidae) of El Salvador and association with larval jaw sheath depigmentation

Amphibian populations around the world have been declining at an alarming rate due to factors such as habitat destruction, pollution, and infectious diseases. Between May and July 2008, we investigated a fungal pathogen in the critically endangered Morelet's treefrog (Agalychnis moreletii) at sites in El Salvador. Larvae were screened with a hand lens for indications of infection with Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a fungus that can cause lethal chytridiomycosis in amphibians. Subsets of inspected tadpoles were preserved for analysis by polymerase chain reaction to determine the effectiveness of hand lens screening for presence of Bd and to estimate infection prevalence at various sites. Because individuals with signs of infection were preferentially included, we used a novel method to generate unbiased estimates of infection prevalence from these biased samples. External mouthpart deformities, identified with a hand lens, successfully predicted Bd infection across a large spatial scale. Two of 13 sites sampled had high (≥ 89%) estimated prevalence, whereas little or no Bd was detected at the remaining sites. Although it appears that A. moreletii populations in this region are not suffering rapid declines due to Bd, further monitoring is required to determine the extent to which these populations are stably coexisting with the pathogen.     

Spatial analysis of Tasmania’s native vegetation cover and potential implications for biodiversity conservation

Summary The landscape modification model proposed by McIntyre and Hobbs (1999) was used to assess the modification of Tasmania’s native vegetation and its potential implications for biodiversity conservation. The inclusion of new ‘substates’ in the model allowed the varying degrees of landscape variegation and fragmentation observed in Tasmania to be quantified. The mapped extent of Tasmania’s native vegetation is approximately 5.06 million ha or 74% of the land area. The extent of native vegetation varies across bioregions from a low of around 36% in the Tasmanian Northern Midlands bioregion to a high of 94% in the Tasmanian West bioregion. Overall, the Tasmanian landscape can be described as medium variegated as the State retains 76% cover of native vegetation, by area. Two of Tasmania’s nine bioregions are in an intact state, four are variegated, and three are fragmented. Seven of the State’s 48 catchments are in an intact state, 24 catchments are variegated, and 17 are fragmented. Tasmania was estimated to support 33 760 patches of native vegetation. Fewer than 3% of these patches exceed 50 ha in area. Small and medium patches occur predominantly on freehold land with grazing as a major land use, whereas large patches occur predominantly on crown land with conservation and production forestry as the major land uses. One feature of the State’s native vegetation is the large tract of native vegetation ecosystems in western Tasmania. Opportunities arise to sustain the resilience of these native ecosystems both by consolidating the formal protection of vegetation within catchments such as the Arthur and Pieman and by strengthening environmental management in adjacent areas. Bioregions and catchments where climate change may be of particular concern for biodiversity conservation and management include the Tasmanian Northern Midlands bioregion and Cam catchment in north‐western Tasmania. The maintenance and enhancement of patches of remnant vegetation in these areas will be challenging and appears likely to require strategic, multiscale and coordinated natural resource management over decades. Limiting the loss of native vegetation across the entire range of landscape states in Tasmania appears essential to mitigate the further decline of biodiversity.     

A reservoir species for the emerging Amphibian pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis thrives in a landscape decimated by disease

Chytridiomycosis, a disease caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is driving amphibian declines and extinctions in protected areas globally. The introduction of invasive reservoir species has been implicated in the spread of Bd but does not explain the appearance of the pathogen in remote protected areas. In the high elevation (>1500 m) Sierra Nevada of California, the native Pacific chorus frog, Pseudacris regilla, appears unaffected by chytridiomycosis while sympatric species experience catastrophic declines. We investigated whether P. regilla is a reservoir of Bd by comparing habitat occupancy before and after a major Bd outbreak and measuring infection in P. regilla in the field, monitoring susceptibility of P. regilla to Bd in the laboratory, examining tissues with histology to determine patterns of infection, and using an innovative soak technique to determine individual output of Bd zoospores in water. Pseudacris regilla persists at 100% of sites where a sympatric species has been extirpated from 72% in synchrony with a wave of Bd. In the laboratory, P. regilla carried loads of Bd as much as an order of magnitude higher than loads found lethal to sympatric species. Histology shows heavy Bd infection in patchy areas next to normal skin, a possible mechanism for tolerance. The soak technique was 77.8% effective at detecting Bd in water and showed an average output of 68 zoospores per minute per individual. The results of this study suggest P. regilla should act as a Bd reservoir and provide evidence of a tolerance mechanism in a reservoir species.     

Reproductive potential of a marine ecosystem engineer at the edge of a newly expanded range

Global climate change is leading to redistribution of marine species and altering ecosystem dynamics. Given recent poleward range extension of the barrens‐forming sea urchin Centrostephanus rodgersii (Diadematidae) from mainland Australia to Tasmania, there is a need to understand the population dynamics of this ecologically important species in the Tasmanian environment. This paper informs possible population dynamics of C. rodgersii in Tasmania by examining its reproductive ecology in this new environment. Reproductive periodicity (gonad index and propensity to spawn) was assessed bimonthly over 18 months at four sites in eastern Tasmania spanning ～2° in latitude. At all sites, C. rodgersii displayed a strong seasonal cycle in gonad production with major spawning occurring in winter (～August) at minimum annual water temperature. Gametes from Tasmanian C. rodgersii were viable as determined by fertilization and early development trials. However, development to the two‐arm stage at ～3 weeks was strongly dependent on water temperature across the 8–20 °C temperature range, with poor development occurring below 12 °C. The range of temperatures tolerated by Tasmanian C. rodgersii larvae was similar to that of larvae from its native New South Wales range, indicating that this species has not undergone an adaptive shift to the cooler Tasmanian environment. There was also no evidence for an adaptive shift in reproductive phenology. Importantly, coastal water temperatures in eastern Tasmania during the peak spawning in August fluctuate about the 12 °C larval development threshold. Recent warming of the eastern Tasmanian coast and further warming predicted by global climate change will result in an environment increasingly favourable for the reproduction and development of C. rodgersii.     

Distribution and Pathogenicity of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in Boreal Toads from the Grand Teton Area of Western Wyoming

The pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), which causes the skin disease chytridiomycosis, has been linked to amphibian population declines and extinctions worldwide. Bd has been implicated in recent declines of boreal toads, Bufo boreas boreas, in Colorado but populations of boreal toads in western Wyoming have high prevalence of Bd without suffering catastrophic mortality. In a field and laboratory study, we investigated the prevalence of Bd in boreal toads from the Grand Teton ecosystem (GRTE) in Wyoming and tested the pathogenicity of Bd to these toads in several environments. The pathogen was present in breeding adults at all 10 sites sampled, with a mean prevalence of 67%. In an experiment with juvenile toadlets housed individually in wet environments, 10⁶ zoospores of Bd isolated from GRTE caused lethal disease in all Wyoming and Colorado animals within 35 days. Survival time was longer in toadlets from Wyoming than Colorado and in toadlets spending more time in dry sites. In a second trial involving Colorado toadlets exposed to 35% fewer Bd zoospores, infection peaked and subsided over 68 days with no lethal chytridiomycosis in any treatment. However, compared with drier aquaria with dry refuges, Bd infection intensity was 41% higher in more humid aquaria and 81% higher without dry refuges available. Our findings suggest that although widely infected in nature, Wyoming toads may escape chytridiomycosis due to a slight advantage in innate resistance or because their native habitat hinders Bd growth or provides more opportunities to reduce pathogen loads behaviorally than in Colorado.     

Intrinsic factors drive spatial genetic variation in a highly vagile species,the wedge‐tailed eagle Aquila audax,in Tasmania

Knowledge of dispersal in a species, both its quantity and the factors influencing it, are crucial for our understanding of ecology and evolution, and for species conservation. Here we quantified and formally assessed the potential contribution of extrinsic factors on individual dispersal in the threatened Tasmanian population of wedge‐tailed eagle Aquila audax. As successful breeding by these individuals appears strongly related to habitat, we tested the effect of landscape around sampling sites on genetic diversity and spatial genetic variation, as these are influenced by patterns of dispersal. Similarly, we also tested whether habitat intervening sampling sites could explain spatial genetic variation. Twenty microsatellites were scored, but only a small proportion of spatial genetic variation (4.6%) could be explained by extrinsic factors, namely habitat suitability and elevation between sites. However, significant clinal genetic variation was evident across Tasmania, which we explain by intrinsic factors, likely high natal philopatry and occasional long‐distance dispersal. This study demonstrates that spatial genetic variation can be detected in highly vagile species at spatial scales that are small relative to putative dispersal ability, although here there was no substantial relationship with landscape factors tested.     

Distribution of the disease pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in non‐epidemic amphibian communities of western Canada

Chytridiomycosis is an emerging infectious disease of amphibians caused by the waterborne pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and is responsible for the recent decline of species worldwide. Elucidating patterns in disease prevalence has proved challenging, as small‐scale studies to date have provided conflicting results. We present data on the prevalence of Bd (the proportion of individuals with Bd) collected from amphibians sampled throughout British Columbia. We had two different datasets: our original dataset includes 1129 individuals sampled in 103 sites representing 14 species. A second dataset has 839 individuals sampled in 19 sites representing 10 species. We use a Bayesian state‐space occupancy modelling approach to estimate the probability that an individual is Bd+ as a function of individual and site characteristics. Cross‐validation techniques and the original dataset were used to find the best model: this model includes species, life stage, and geographic location. Our results suggest that Bd prevalence is not strongly related to seasonality, latitude or site type. Within a species, Bd prevalence depended on life stage; the watershed in which a site occurs may also usefully predict prevalence. Overall observed infection prevalence was ～16%. Our best model accurately assigns Bd status to an individual ～ 42% of the time. Taking advantage of the Bayesian framework, we ran an analysis with the second dataset using estimates from the original model as prior values. We present posterior density distributions for those sites and species with narrow credible intervals, and show that sites tend to be either highly likely or highly unlikely to have individuals with Bd, while individuals of some stages of some species have an intermediate likelihood of being Bd‐positive. The Bayesian model using informed priors had increased accuracy rates in assigning Bd status to both individuals and groups of individuals.     

Host species composition influences infection severity among amphibians in the absence of spillover transmission

Wildlife epidemiological outcomes can depend strongly on the composition of an ecological community, particularly when multiple host species are affected by the same pathogen. However, the relationship between host species richness and disease risk can vary with community context and with the degree of spillover transmission that occurs among co‐occurring host species. We examined the degree to which host species composition influences infection by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a widespread fungal pathogen associated with amphibian population declines around the world, and whether transmission occurs from one highly susceptible host species to other co‐occurring host species. By manipulating larval assemblages of three sympatric amphibian species in the laboratory, we characterized the relationship between host species richness and infection severity, whether infection mediates growth and survivorship differently across various combinations of host species, and whether Bd is transmitted from experimentally inoculated tadpoles to uninfected tadpoles. We found evidence of a dilution effect where Bd infection severity was dramatically reduced in the most susceptible of the three host species (Anaxyrus boreas). Infection also mediated survival and growth of all three host species such that the presence of multiple host species had both positive (e.g., infection reduction) and negative (e.g., mortality) effects on focal species. However, we found no evidence that Bd infection is transmitted by this species. While these results demonstrate that host species richness as well as species identity underpin infection dynamics in this system, dilution is not the product of reduced transmission via fewer infectious individuals of a susceptible host species. We discuss various mechanisms, including encounter reduction and antagonistic interactions such as competition and opportunistic cannibalism that may act in concert to mediate patterns of infection severity, growth, and mortality observed in multihost communities.     

Do pathogens become more virulent as they spread? Evidence from the amphibian declines in Central America

The virulence of a pathogen can vary strongly through time. While cyclical variation in virulence is regularly observed, directional shifts in virulence are less commonly observed and are typically associated with decreasing virulence of biological control agents through coevolution. It is increasingly appreciated, however, that spatial effects can lead to evolutionary trajectories that differ from standard expectations. One such possibility is that, as a pathogen spreads through a naive host population, its virulence increases on the invasion front. In Central America, there is compelling evidence for the recent spread of pathogenic Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and for its strong impact on amphibian populations. Here, we re-examine data on Bd prevalence and amphibian population decline across 13 sites from southern Mexico through Central America, and show that, in the initial phases of the Bd invasion, amphibian population decline lagged approximately 9 years behind the arrival of the pathogen, but that this lag diminished markedly over time. In total, our analysis suggests an increase in Bd virulence as it spread southwards, a pattern consistent with rapid evolution of increased virulence on Bd''s invading front. The impact of Bd on amphibians might therefore be driven by rapid evolution in addition to more proximate environmental drivers.     

Populations of a susceptible amphibian species can grow despite the presence of a pathogenic chytrid fungus

Disease can be an important driver of host population dynamics and epizootics can cause severe host population declines. Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), the pathogen causing amphibian chytridiomycosis, may occur epizootically or enzootically and can harm amphibian populations in many ways. While effects of Bd epizootics are well documented, the effects of enzootic Bd have rarely been described. We used a state-space model that accounts for observation error to test whether population trends of a species highly susceptible to Bd, the midwife toad Alytes obstetricans, are negatively affected by the enzootic presence of the pathogen. Unexpectedly, Bd had no negative effect on population growth rates from 2002-2008. This suggests that negative effects of disease on individuals do not necessarily translate into negative effects at the population level. Populations of amphibian species that are susceptible to the emerging disease chytridiomycosis can persist despite the enzootic presence of the pathogen under current environmental conditions.     

Ring width,climate and wood density relationships in two long-lived Tasmanian tree species

The great majority of dendroclimatological work in Australia has thus far relied on ring-width chronologies only. We report novel results from a pilot study that show the potential to develop density-based climatically sensitive chronologies from two long-lived conifers endemic to Tasmania: Pencil Pine and Celery Top Pine. Cross-dating of average ring density profiles within each of the two sites examined was comparable with the better replicated ring-width chronologies from the sites. Cross-dating potential for maximum density was also indicated. Correlations between density and climate for both species were stronger and more persistent across a window of several months than correlations between ring width and climate. These stronger correlations suggest that temperature reconstructions based on average density may be possible. The ability to develop high resolution temperature-sensitive chronologies would allow for spatial comparisons across regions such as Tasmania that are affected by multiple broad-scale climate systems. A particularly novel result was the finding that maximum density was significantly related to stream-flow at the end of the growing season. Further work is required to assess the potential to reconstruct temperature, and to reconstruct stream-flow for important Tasmanian catchments over the past 500–800 years.     

Long-Term Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Factors Associated with Trends in Bare-Nosed Wombats

Geographically widespread species present challenges for conservation assessment. We used long-term spotlight surveys to assess spatiotemporal dynamics of bare-nosed wombats (Vombatus ursinus), encompassing 34 years of surveys for the Tasmanian mainland sub-species (V. u. tasmaniensis, 1985–2018) and 25 years for the Flinders Island sub-species (V. u. ursinus, 1994–2018). Wombat populations increased on the Tasmanian mainland by 2.59 times and on Flinders Island by 3.51 times ( = 1.05 and 1.1 times increase/yr, respectively). At smaller spatial scales on mainland Tasmania, increases in wombat counts generally occurred within meteorological regions and regional zones, except for the Central North (West Tamar) region where a decrease in wombats is linked to a sarcoptic mange disease epizootic. We used generalized additive models to assess relationships between variables and wombat counts. The most supported variables at the mainland Tasmania scale were (in order of importance) year, positive associations with time-lagged minimum temperature, Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) counts, and moonlight, and a negative association with time-lagged rainfall. Among meteorological regions, variables associated with wombat counts exhibited some heterogeneity, with temperature and rainfall the most frequently associated variables. Our long-term, large-scale, and ecologically diverse analysis of bare-nosed wombats supports spotlight monitoring as a valuable, relatively simple, and affordable survey method in Tasmania and beyond. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

High Prevalence of the Amphibian Chytrid Pathogen in Gabon

Amphibian chytridiomycosis is an infectious disease caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) that is implicated in the worldwide decline and extinction of amphibians. Africa has been proposed as a potential source for the global expansion of Bd, yet the distribution of Bd across the continent remains largely unexplored. Using quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR), we screened for the presence of Bd in 166 adult anurans from two national parks in Gabon (Monts de Cristal and Ivindo). Bd was detected in 20 of the 42 species and was present at all three sites surveyed (two in Monts de Cristal, and one in Ivindo) with high prevalence (19.6%-36.0%). Both national parks were Bd-positive at all elevations and across habitat types, though no dead or dying frogs were encountered. To our knowledge, this study presents the first evidence of Bd in Gabon and the first record of infection for 19 of the 20 species that were Bd-positive. Documenting the distribution and virulence of Bd across Africa will be essential for understanding the dynamics of amphibian chytridiomycosis across the globe.     

Quantitative PCR detection of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis DNA from sediments and water

The fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) causes chytridiomycosis, a disease implicated in amphibian declines on 5 continents. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) primer sets exist with which amphibians can be tested for this disease, and advances in sampling techniques allow non-invasive testing of animals. We developed filtering and PCR based quantitative methods by modifying existing PCR assays to detect Bd DNA in water and sediments, without the need for testing amphibians; we tested the methods at 4 field sites. The SYBR based assay using Boyle primers (SYBR/Boyle assay) and the Taqman based assay using Wood primers performed similarly with samples generated in the laboratory (Bd spiked filters), but the SYBR/Boyle assay detected Bd DNA in more field samples. We detected Bd DNA in water from 3 of 4 sites tested, including one pond historically negative for chytridiomycosis. Zoospore equivalents in sampled water ranged from 19 to 454 1(-1) (nominal detection limit is 10 DNA copies, or about 0.06 zoospore). We did not detect DNA of Bd from sediments collected at any sites. Our filtering and amplification methods provide a new tool to investigate critical aspects of Bd in the environment.     

Extensive population decline in the Tasmanian devil predates European settlement and devil facial tumour disease

The Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) was widespread in Australia during the Late Pleistocene but is now endemic to the island of Tasmania. Low genetic diversity combined with the spread of devil facial tumour disease have raised concerns for the species’ long-term survival. Here, we investigate the origin of low genetic diversity by inferring the species'' demographic history using temporal sampling with summary statistics, full-likelihood and approximate Bayesian computation methods. Our results show extensive population declines across Tasmania correlating with environmental changes around the last glacial maximum and following unstable climate related to increased ‘El Niño–Southern Oscillation’ activity.     

Response of a southern temperate marsupial, the Tasmanian pademelon (Thylogale billardierii), to historical and contemporary forest fragmentation

Despite only limited Pleistocene glacial activity in the southern hemisphere, temperate forest species experienced complex distributional changes resulting from the combined effects of glaciation, sea level change and increased aridity. The effects of these historical processes on population genetic structure are now overlain by the effects of contemporary habitat modification. In this study, 10 microsatellites and 629 bp of the mitochondrial control region were used to assess the effects of historical forest fragmentation and recent anthropogenic habitat change on the broad-scale population genetic structuring of a southern temperate marsupial, the Tasmanian pademelon. A total of 200 individuals were sampled from seven sites across Tasmania and two islands in Bass Strait. High mitochondrial and nuclear genetic diversity indicated the maintenance of large historical population sizes. There was weak phylogeographical structuring of haplotypes, although all King Island haplotypes and three Tasmanian haplotypes formed a divergent clade implying the mid-Pleistocene isolation of a far northwestern population. Both the mitochondrial and nuclear data indicated a division of Tasmanian populations into eastern and western regions. This was consistent with a historical barrier resulting from increased aridity in the lowland 'midlands' region during glacial periods, and with a contemporary barrier resulting from recent habitat modification in that region. In Tasmania, gene flow appears to have been relatively unrestricted during glacial maxima in the west, while in the east there was evidence for historical expansion from at least one large glacial refuge and recolonization of Flinders Island.     

There Is No Evidence for a Temporal Link between Pathogen Arrival and Frog Extinctions in North-Eastern Australia

Pathogen spread can cause population declines and even species extinctions. Nonetheless, in the absence of tailored monitoring schemes, documenting pathogen spread can be difficult. In the case of worldwide amphibian declines the best present understanding is that the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has recently spread, causing amphibian declines and extinction in the process. However, good evidence demonstrating pathogen arrival followed by amphibian decline is rare, and analysis of putative evidence is often inadequate. Here we attempt to examine the relationship between Bd arrival and amphibian decline across north-eastern Australia, using sites where a wave-like pattern of amphibian decline was first noticed and at which intensive research has since been conducted. We develop an analytical framework that allows rigorous estimation of pathogen arrival date, which can then be used to test for a correlation between the time of pathogen arrival and amphibian decline across sites. Our results show that, with the current dataset, the earliest possible arrival date of Bd in north-eastern Australia is completely unresolved; Bd could have arrived immediately before sampling commenced or may have arrived thousands of years earlier, the present data simply cannot say. The currently available data are thus insufficient to assess the link between timing of pathogen arrival and population decline in this part of the world. This data insufficiency is surprising given that there have been decades of research on chytridiomycosis in Australia and that there is a general belief that the link between Bd arrival and population decline is well resolved in this region. The lack of data on Bd arrival currently acts as a major impediment to determining the role of environmental factors in driving the global amphibian declines, and should be a major focus of future research.