The 2007 Rift Valley fever outbreak in Sudan

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a neglected, emerging, mosquito-borne disease with severe negative impact on human and animal health and economy. RVF is caused by RVF virus (RVFV) affecting humans and a wide range of animals. The virus is transmitted through bites from mosquitoes and exposure to viremic blood, body fluids, or tissues of infected animals. During 2007 a large RVF outbreak occurred in Sudan with a total of 747 confirmed human cases including 230 deaths (case fatality 30.8%); although it has been estimated 75,000 were infected. It was most severe in White Nile, El Gezira, and Sennar states near to the White Nile and the Blue Nile Rivers. Notably, RVF was not demonstrated in livestock until after the human cases appeared and unfortunately, there are no records or reports of the number of affected animals or deaths. Ideally, animals should serve as sentinels to prevent loss of human life, but the situation here was reversed. Animal contact seemed to be the most dominant risk factor followed by animal products and mosquito bites. The Sudan outbreak followed an unusually heavy rainfall in the country with severe flooding and previous studies on RVF in Sudan suggest that RVFV is endemic in parts of Sudan. An RVF outbreak results in human disease, but also large economic loss with an impact beyond the immediate influence on the directly affected agricultural producers. The outbreak emphasizes the need for collaboration between veterinary and health authorities, entomologists, environmental specialists, and biologists, as the best strategy towards the prevention and control of RVF.     

A statistical model of Rift Valley fever activity in Egypt

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral disease of animals and humans and a global public health concern due to its ecological plasticity, adaptivity, and potential for spread to countries with a temperate climate. In many places, outbreaks are episodic and linked to climatic, hydrologic, and socioeconomic factors. Although outbreaks of RVF have occurred in Egypt since 1977, attempts to identify risk factors have been limited. Using a statistical learning approach (lasso‐regularized generalized linear model), we tested the hypotheses that outbreaks in Egypt are linked to (1) River Nile conditions that create a mosquito vector habitat, (2) entomologic conditions favorable to transmission, (3) socio‐economic factors (Islamic festival of Greater Bairam), and (4) recent history of transmission activity. Evidence was found for effects of rainfall and river discharge and recent history of transmission activity. There was no evidence for an effect of Greater Bairam. The model predicted RVF activity correctly in 351 of 358 months (98.0%). This is the first study to statistically identify risk factors for RVF outbreaks in a region of unstable transmission.     

A Modeling Approach to Investigate Epizootic Outbreaks and Enzootic Maintenance of Rift Valley Fever Virus

We propose a mathematical model to investigate the transmission dynamics of Rift Valley fever (RVF) virus among ruminants. Our findings indicate that in endemic areas RVF virus maintains at a very low level among ruminants after outbreaks and subsequent outbreaks may occur when new susceptible ruminants are recruited into endemic areas or abundant numbers of mosquitoes emerge when herd immunity decreases. Many factors have been shown to have impacts on the severity of RVF outbreaks; a higher probability of death due to RVF among ruminants, a higher mosquito:ruminant ratio, or a shorter lifespan of animals can amplify the magnitude of the outbreaks; vaccination helps to reduce the magnitude of RVF outbreaks and the loss of animals efficiently, and the maximum vaccination effort (a high vaccination rate and a larger number of vaccinated animals) is recommended before the commencement of an outbreak but can be reduced later during the enzootic.     

mtDNA analysis of Nile River Valley populations: A genetic corridor or a barrier to migration?

To assess the extent to which the Nile River Valley has been a corridor for human migrations between Egypt and sub-Saharan Africa, we analyzed mtDNA variation in 224 individuals from various locations along the river. Sequences of the first hypervariable segment (HV1) of the mtDNA control region and a polymorphic HpaI site at position 3592 allowed us to designate each mtDNA as being of "northern" or "southern" affiliation. Proportions of northern and southern mtDNA differed significantly between Egypt, Nubia, and the southern Sudan. At slowly evolving sites within HV1, northern-mtDNA diversity was highest in Egypt and lowest in the southern Sudan, and southern-mtDNA diversity was highest in the southern Sudan and lowest in Egypt, indicating that migrations had occurred bidirectionally along the Nile River Valley. Egypt and Nubia have low and similar amounts of divergence for both mtDNA types, which is consistent with historical evidence for long-term interactions between Egypt and Nubia. Spatial autocorrelation analysis demonstrates a smooth gradient of decreasing genetic similarity of mtDNA types as geographic distance between sampling localities increases, strongly suggesting gene flow along the Nile, with no evident barriers. We conclude that these migrations probably occurred within the past few hundred to few thousand years and that the migration from north to south was either earlier or lesser in the extent of gene flow than the migration from south to north.     

Rift Valley Fever Risk Map Model and Seroprevalence in Selected Wild Ungulates and Camels from Kenya

Since the first isolation of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) in the 1930s, there have been multiple epizootics and epidemics in animals and humans in sub-Saharan Africa. Prospective climate-based models have recently been developed that flag areas at risk of RVFV transmission in endemic regions based on key environmental indicators that precede Rift Valley fever (RVF) epizootics and epidemics. Although the timing and locations of human case data from the 2006–2007 RVF outbreak in Kenya have been compared to risk zones flagged by the model, seroprevalence of RVF antibodies in wildlife has not yet been analyzed in light of temporal and spatial predictions of RVF activity. Primarily wild ungulate serum samples from periods before, during, and after the 2006–2007 RVF epizootic were analyzed for the presence of RVFV IgM and/or IgG antibody. Results show an increase in RVF seropositivity from samples collected in 2007 (31.8%), compared to antibody prevalence observed from 2000–2006 (3.3%). After the epizootic, average RVF seropositivity diminished to 5% in samples collected from 2008–2009. Overlaying maps of modeled RVF risk assessments with sampling locations indicated positive RVF serology in several species of wild ungulate in or near areas flagged as being at risk for RVF. Our results establish the need to continue and expand sero-surveillance of wildlife species Kenya and elsewhere in the Horn of Africa to further calibrate and improve the RVF risk model, and better understand the dynamics of RVFV transmission.     

Single-dose immunization with virus replicon particles confers rapid robust protection against Rift Valley fever virus challenge

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) causes outbreaks of severe disease in people and livestock throughout Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. The potential for RVFV introduction outside the area of endemicity highlights the need for fast-acting, safe, and efficacious vaccines. Here, we demonstrate a robust system for the reverse genetics generation of a RVF virus replicon particle (VRP(RVF)) vaccine candidate. Using a mouse model, we show that VRP(RVF) immunization provides the optimal balance of safety and single-dose robust efficacy. VRP(RVF) can actively synthesize viral RNA and proteins but lacks structural glycoprotein genes, preventing spread within immunized individuals and reducing the risk of vaccine-induced pathogenicity. VRP(RVF) proved to be completely safe following intracranial inoculation of suckling mice, a stringent test of vaccine safety. Single-dose subcutaneous immunization with VRP(RVF), although it is highly attenuated, completely protected mice against a virulent RVFV challenge dose which was 100,000-fold greater than the 50% lethal dose (LD(50)). Robust protection from lethal challenge was observed by 24 h postvaccination, with 100% protection induced in as little as 96 h. We show that a single subcutaneous VRP(RVF) immunization initiated a systemic antiviral state followed by an enhanced adaptive response. These data contrast sharply with the much-reduced survivability and immune responses observed among animals immunized with nonreplicating viral particles, indicating that replication, even if confined to the initially infected cells, contributes substantially to protective efficacy at early and late time points postimmunization. These data demonstrate that replicon vaccines successfully bridge the gap between safety and efficacy and provide insights into the kinetics of antiviral protection from RVFV infection.     

First External Quality Assessment of Molecular and Serological Detection of Rift Valley Fever in the Western Mediterranean Region

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne viral zoonosis which affects humans and a wide range of domestic and wild ruminants. The large spread of RVF in Africa and its potential to emerge beyond its geographic range requires the development of surveillance strategies to promptly detect the disease outbreaks in order to implement efficient control measures, which could prevent the widespread of the virus to humans. The Animal Health Mediterranean Network (REMESA) linking some Northern African countries as Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Tunisia with Southern European ones as France, Italy, Portugal and Spain aims at improving the animal health in the Western Mediterranean Region since 2009. In this context, a first assessment of the diagnostic capacities of the laboratories involved in the RVF surveillance was performed. The first proficiency testing (external quality assessment—EQA) for the detection of the viral genome and antibodies of RVF virus (RVFV) was carried out from October 2013 to February 2014. Ten laboratories participated from 6 different countries (4 from North Africa and 2 from Europe). Six laboratories participated in the ring trial for both viral RNA and antibodies detection methods, while four laboratories participated exclusively in the antibodies detection ring trial. For the EQA targeting the viral RNA detection methods 5 out of 6 laboratories reported 100% of correct results. One laboratory misidentified 2 positive samples as negative and 3 positive samples as doubtful indicating a need for corrective actions. For the EQA targeting IgG and IgM antibodies methods 9 out of the 10 laboratories reported 100% of correct results, whilst one laboratory reported all correct results except one false-positive. These two ring trials provide evidence that most of the participating laboratories are capable to detect RVF antibodies and viral RNA thus recognizing RVF infection in affected ruminants with the diagnostic methods currently available.     

Rift valley fever virus lacking the NSs and NSm genes is highly attenuated, confers protective immunity from virulent virus challenge, and allows for differential identification of infected and vaccinated animals

Rift Valley fever (RVF) virus is a mosquito-borne human and veterinary pathogen associated with large outbreaks of severe disease throughout Africa and more recently the Arabian peninsula. Infection of livestock can result in sweeping “abortion storms” and high mortality among young animals. Human infection results in self-limiting febrile disease that in ~1 to 2% of patients progresses to more serious complications including hepatitis, encephalitis, and retinitis or a hemorrhagic syndrome with high fatality. The virus S segment-encoded NSs and the M segment-encoded NSm proteins are important virulence factors. The development of safe, effective vaccines and tools to screen and evaluate antiviral compounds is critical for future control strategies. Here, we report the successful reverse genetics generation of multiple recombinant enhanced green fluorescent protein-tagged RVF viruses containing either the full-length, complete virus genome or precise deletions of the NSs gene alone or the NSs/NSm genes in combination, thus creating attenuating deletions on multiple virus genome segments. These viruses were highly attenuated, with no detectable viremia or clinical illness observed with high challenge dosages (1.0 × 10⁴ PFU) in the rat lethal disease model. A single-dose immunization regimen induced robust anti-RVF virus immunoglobulin G antibodies (titer, ~1:6,400) by day 26 postvaccination. All vaccinated animals that were subsequently challenged with a high dose of virulent RVF virus survived infection and could be serologically differentiated from naïve, experimentally infected animals by the lack of NSs antibodies. These rationally designed marker RVF vaccine viruses will be useful tools for in vitro screening of therapeutic compounds and will provide a basis for further development of RVF virus marker vaccines for use in endemic regions or following the natural or intentional introduction of the virus into previously unaffected areas.     

Enemies and turncoats: bovine tuberculosis exposes pathogenic potential of Rift Valley fever virus in a common host,African buffalo (Syncerus caffer)

The ubiquity and importance of parasite co-infections in populations of free-living animals is beginning to be recognized, but few studies have demonstrated differential fitness effects of single infection versus co-infection in free-living populations. We investigated interactions between the emerging bacterial disease bovine tuberculosis (BTB) and the previously existing viral disease Rift Valley fever (RVF) in a competent reservoir host, African buffalo, combining data from a natural outbreak of RVF in captive buffalo at a buffalo breeding facility in 2008 with data collected from a neighbouring free-living herd of African buffalo in Kruger National Park. RVF infection was twice as likely in individual BTB+ buffalo as in BTB− buffalo, which, according to a mathematical model, may increase RVF outbreak size at the population level. In addition, co-infection was associated with a far higher rate of fetal abortion than other infection states. Immune interactions between BTB and RVF may underlie both of these interactions, since animals with BTB had decreased innate immunity and increased pro-inflammatory immune responses. This study is one of the first to demonstrate how the consequences of emerging infections extend beyond direct effects on host health, potentially altering the dynamics and fitness effects of infectious diseases that had previously existed in the ecosystem on free-ranging wildlife populations.     

Rift Valley Fever Virus Seroprevalence in Human Rural Populations of Gabon

Background

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne viral zoonosis caused by a phlebovirus and transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. Humans can also be infected through direct contact with blood (aerosols) or tissues (placenta, stillborn) of infected animals. Although severe clinical cases can be observed, infection with RVF virus (RVFV) in humans is, in most cases, asymptomatic or causes a febrile illness without serious symptoms. In small ruminants RVFV mainly causes abortion and neonatal death. The distribution of RVFV has been well documented in many African countries, particularly in the north (Egypt, Sudan), east (Kenya, Tanzania, Somalia), west (Senegal, Mauritania) and south (South Africa), but also in the Indian Ocean (Madagascar, Mayotte) and the Arabian Peninsula. In contrast, the prevalence of RVFV has rarely been investigated in central African countries.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We therefore conducted a large serological survey of rural populations in Gabon, involving 4,323 individuals from 212 randomly selected villages (10.3% of all Gabonese villages). RVFV-specific IgG was found in a total of 145 individuals (3.3%) suggesting the wide circulation of Rift Valley fever virus in Gabon. The seroprevalence was significantly higher in the lakes region than in forest and savannas zones, with respective rates of 8.3%, 2.9% and 2.2%. In the lakes region, RVFV-specific IgG was significantly more prevalent in males than in females (respectively 12.8% and 3.8%) and the seroprevalence increased gradually with age in males but not in females.

Conclusions/Significance

Although RVFV was suggested to circulate at a relatively high level in Gabon, no outbreaks or even isolated cases have been documented in the country. The higher prevalence in the lakes region is likely to be driven by specific ecologic conditions favorable to certain mosquito vector species. Males may be more at risk of infection than females because they spend more time farming and hunting outside the villages, where they may be more exposed to mosquito bites and infected animals. Further investigations are needed to determine the putative sylvan cycle of RVFV, including the mosquito species and the reservoir role of wild animals in the viral maintenance cycle.     

Development of a novel nonhuman primate model for Rift Valley fever

Rift Valley fever (RVF) virus (RVFV) can cause severe human disease characterized by either acute-onset hepatitis, delayed-onset encephalitis, retinitis and blindness, or a hemorrhagic syndrome. The existing nonhuman primate (NHP) model for RVF utilizes an intravenous (i.v.) exposure route in rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta). Severe disease in these animals is infrequent, and large cohorts are needed to observe significant morbidity and mortality. To overcome these drawbacks, we evaluated the infectivity and pathogenicity of RVFV in the common marmoset (Callithrix jacchus) by i.v., subcutaneous (s.c.), and intranasal exposure routes to more closely mimic natural exposure. Marmosets were more susceptible to RVFV than rhesus macaques and experienced higher rates of morbidity, mortality, and viremia and marked aberrations in hematological and chemistry values. An overwhelming infection of hepatocytes was a major consequence of infection of marmosets by the i.v. and s.c. exposure routes. Additionally, these animals displayed signs of hemorrhagic manifestations and neurological impairment. Based on our results, the common marmoset model more closely resembles severe human RVF disease and is therefore an ideal model for the evaluation of potential vaccines and therapeutics.     

The role of livestock movements in the spread of Rift Valley fever virus in animals and humans in Mayotte, 2018–19

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne viral disease of major animal and public health importance. In 2018–19, it caused an epidemic in both livestock and human populations of the island of Mayotte. Using Bayesian modelling approaches, we assessed the spatio-temporal pattern of RVF virus (RVFV) infection in livestock and human populations across the island, and factors shaping it. First, we assessed if (i) livestock movements, (ii) spatial proximity from communes with infected animals, and (iii) livestock density were associated with the temporal sequence of RVFV introduction into Mayotte communes’ livestock populations. Second, we assessed whether the rate of human infection was associated with (a) spatial proximity from and (b) livestock density of communes with infected animals. Our analyses showed that the temporal sequence of RVFV introduction into communes’ livestock populations was associated with livestock movements and spatial proximity from communes with infected animals, with livestock movements being associated with the best model fit. Moreover, the pattern of human cases was associated with their spatial proximity from communes with infected animals, with the risk of human infection sharply increasing if livestock in the same or close communes were infected. This study highlights the importance of understanding livestock movement networks in informing the design of risk-based RVF surveillance programs.     

Aerosolized Rift Valley Fever Virus Causes Fatal Encephalitis in African Green Monkeys and Common Marmosets

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a veterinary and human disease in Africa and the Middle East. The causative agent, RVF virus (RVFV), can be naturally transmitted by mosquito, direct contact, or aerosol. We sought to develop a nonhuman primate (NHP) model of severe RVF in humans to better understand the pathogenesis of RVF and to use for evaluation of medical countermeasures. NHP from four different species were exposed to aerosols containing RVFV. Both cynomolgus and rhesus macaques developed mild fevers after inhalation of RVFV, but no other clinical signs were noted and no macaque succumbed to RVFV infection. In contrast, both marmosets and African green monkeys (AGM) proved susceptible to aerosolized RVF virus. Fever onset was earlier with the marmosets and had a biphasic pattern similar to what has been reported in humans. Beginning around day 8 to day 10 postexposure, clinical signs consistent with encephalitis were noted in both AGM and marmosets; animals of both species succumbed between days 9 and 11 postexposure. Marmosets were susceptible to lower doses of RVFV than AGM. Histological examination confirmed viral meningoencephalitis in both species. Hematological analyses indicated a drop in platelet counts in both AGM and marmosets suggestive of thrombosis, as well as leukocytosis that consisted mostly of granulocytes. Both AGM and marmosets would serve as useful models of aerosol infection with RVFV.     

Combining hydrology and mosquito population models to identify the drivers of rift valley Fever emergence in semi-arid regions of west Africa

Background

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne viral zoonosis of increasing global importance. RVF virus (RVFV) is transmitted either through exposure to infected animals or through bites from different species of infected mosquitoes, mainly of Aedes and Culex genera. These mosquitoes are very sensitive to environmental conditions, which may determine their presence, biology, and abundance. In East Africa, RVF outbreaks are known to be closely associated with heavy rainfall events, unlike in the semi-arid regions of West Africa where the drivers of RVF emergence remain poorly understood. The assumed importance of temporary ponds and rainfall temporal distribution therefore needs to be investigated.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A hydrological model is combined with a mosquito population model to predict the abundance of the two main mosquito species (Aedes vexans and Culex poicilipes) involved in RVFV transmission in Senegal. The study area is an agropastoral zone located in the Ferlo Valley, characterized by a dense network of temporary water ponds which constitute mosquito breeding sites.The hydrological model uses daily rainfall as input to simulate variations of pond surface areas. The mosquito population model is mechanistic, considers both aquatic and adult stages and is driven by pond dynamics. Once validated using hydrological and entomological field data, the model was used to simulate the abundance dynamics of the two mosquito species over a 43-year period (1961–2003). We analysed the predicted dynamics of mosquito populations with regards to the years of main outbreaks. The results showed that the main RVF outbreaks occurred during years with simultaneous high abundances of both species.

Conclusion/Significance

Our study provides for the first time a mechanistic insight on RVFV transmission in West Africa. It highlights the complementary roles of Aedes vexans and Culex poicilipes mosquitoes in virus transmission, and recommends the identification of rainfall patterns favourable for RVFV amplification.     

Phylogeography of Rift Valley Fever virus in Africa reveals multiple introductions in Senegal and Mauritania

Rift Valley Fever (RVF) virus (Family Bunyaviridae) is an arthropod-borne RNA virus that infects primarily domestic ruminants and occasionally humans. RVF epizootics are characterized by numerous abortions and mortality among young animals. In humans, the illness is usually characterized by a mild self-limited febrile illness, which could progress to more serious complications. RVF virus is widespread and endemic in many regions of Africa. In Western Africa, several outbreaks have been reported since 1987 when the first major one occurred at the frontier of Senegal and Mauritania. Aiming to evaluate the spreading and molecular epidemiology in these countries, RVFV isolates from 1944 to 2008 obtained from 18 localities in Senegal and Mauritania and 15 other countries were investigated. Our results suggest that a more intense viral activity possibly took place during the last century compared to the recent past and that at least 5 introductions of RVFV took place in Senegal and Mauritania from distant African regions. Moreover, Barkedji in Senegal was possibly a hub associated with the three distinct entries of RVFV in West Africa.     

Complete genome analysis of 33 ecologically and biologically diverse Rift Valley fever virus strains reveals widespread virus movement and low genetic diversity due to recent common ancestry

Rift Valley fever (RVF) virus is a mosquito-borne RNA virus responsible for large explosive outbreaks of acute febrile disease in humans and livestock in Africa with significant mortality and economic impact. The successful high-throughput generation of the complete genome sequence was achieved for 33 diverse RVF virus strains collected from throughout Africa and Saudi Arabia from 1944 to 2000, including strains differing in pathogenicity in disease models. While several distinct virus genetic lineages were determined, which approximately correlate with geographic origin, multiple exceptions indicative of long-distance virus movement have been found. Virus strains isolated within an epidemic (e.g., Mauritania, 1987, or Egypt, 1977 to 1978) exhibit little diversity, while those in enzootic settings (e.g., 1970s Zimbabwe) can be highly diverse. In addition, the large Saudi Arabian RVF outbreak in 2000 appears to have involved virus introduction from East Africa, based on the close ancestral relationship of a 1998 East African virus. Virus genetic diversity was low (~5%) and primarily involved accumulation of mutations at an average of 2.9 × 10⁻⁴ substitutions/site/year, although some evidence of RNA segment reassortment was found. Bayesian analysis of current RVF virus genetic diversity places the most recent common ancestor of these viruses in the late 1800s, the colonial period in Africa, a time of dramatic changes in agricultural practices and introduction of nonindigenous livestock breeds. In addition to insights into the evolution and ecology of RVF virus, these genomic data also provide a foundation for the design of molecular detection assays and prototype vaccines useful in combating this important disease.     

Knowledge,Attitudes and Practices (KAP) on Rift Valley Fever among Pastoralist Communities of Ijara District,North Eastern Kenya

Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF), a mosquito-borne viral zoonosis, have previously been associated with unusually heavy rainfall and extensive flooding. The disease is a serious public health problem in Africa and the Middle East, and is a potential global health threat. In Kenya, outbreaks of the disease have disproportionately affected impoverished pastoralist communities. This study sought to assess the knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) regarding RVF among the pastoralists of North Eastern Kenya, and to establish the determinants of KAP on RVF. A cross-sectional study involving 392 pastoralists living in Ijara district (Masalani and Ijara wards) was carried out using an interview questionnaire. All respondents interviewed (100%) had heard about RVF disease. They recognized that the disease is dangerous (99%), and had a positive attitude towards vaccination of animals (77%). However, few respondents knew that abortion (11%) and high mortality of young animals (10%) were key signs of RVF in animals. Very few (4%) use any form of protection when handling sick animals to avoid infection. Significant factors associated with knowledge were being in a household with a history of RVF infection (OR = 1.262, 95% CI = 1.099–1.447), having more livestock (OR = 1.285, 95% CI = 1.175–1.404) and the place of residence, Masalani (OR = 0.526, 95% CI = 0.480–0.576). Overall knowledge score on RVF was found to be a significant predictor of good preventive practice of the disease (OR = 1.073, 95% CI = 1.047–1.101). Despite the positive attitude that pastoralist communities have towards the prevention of RVF, there exist gaps in knowledge and good practices on the disease. Therefore there is need for public health education to address these gaps, and to identify and facilitate the removal of barriers to behavioural change related to the prevention of RVF.     

An unusually long Rift valley fever inter-epizootic period in Zambia: Evidence for enzootic virus circulation and risk for disease outbreak

Rift valley fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne disease of animals and humans. Although RVF outbreaks are usually reported at 5-15-year intervals in sub-Saharan Africa, Zambia has experienced an unusually long inter-epizootic/-epidemic period of more than three decades. However, serological evidence of RVF virus (RVFV) infection in domestic ruminants during this period underscores the need for comprehensive investigation of the mechanisms of virus perpetuation and disease emergence. Mosquitoes (n = 16,778) captured from eight of the ten provinces of Zambia between April 2014 and May 2019 were pooled (n = 961) and screened for RVFV genome by a pan-phlebo RT-PCR assay. Aedes mosquito pools (n = 85) were further screened by nested RT-PCR assay. Sera from sheep (n = 13), goats (n = 259) and wild ungulates (n = 285) were screened for RVFV antibodies by ELISA while genome detection in pooled sera (n = 276) from domestic (n = 248) and wild ungulates (n = 37) was performed by real-time RT-PCR assay. To examine the association between the long inter-epizootic period and climatic variables, we examined El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices, precipitation anomalies, and normalized difference vegetation index. We then derived RVF risk maps by exploring climatic variables that would favor emergence of primary RVFV vectors. While no RVFV genome could be detected in pooled mosquito and serum samples, seroprevalence was significantly high (OR = 8.13, 95% CI [4.63–14.25]) in wild ungulates (33.7%; 96/285) compared to domestic ruminants (5.6%; 16/272). Retrospective analysis of RVF epizootics in Zambia showed a positive correlation between anomalous precipitation (La Niña) and disease emergence. On risk mapping, whilst northern and eastern parts of the country were at high risk, domestic ruminant population density was low (< 21 animals/km²) in these areas compared to low risk areas (>21 animals/km²). Besides evidence of silent circulation of RVFV and the risk of disease emergence in some areas, wildlife may play a role in the maintenance of RVFV in Zambia.     

Predictive Factors and Risk Mapping for Rift Valley Fever Epidemics in Kenya

Background

To-date, Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks have occurred in 38 of the 69 administrative districts in Kenya. Using surveillance records collected between 1951 and 2007, we determined the risk of exposure and outcome of an RVF outbreak, examined the ecological and climatic factors associated with the outbreaks, and used these data to develop an RVF risk map for Kenya.

Methods

Exposure to RVF was evaluated as the proportion of the total outbreak years that each district was involved in prior epizootics, whereas risk of outcome was assessed as severity of observed disease in humans and animals for each district. A probability-impact weighted score (1 to 9) of the combined exposure and outcome risks was used to classify a district as high (score ≥ 5) or medium (score ≥2 - <5) risk, a classification that was subsequently subjected to expert group analysis for final risk level determination at the division levels (total = 391 divisions). Divisions that never reported RVF disease (score < 2) were classified as low risk. Using data from the 2006/07 RVF outbreak, the predictive risk factors for an RVF outbreak were identified. The predictive probabilities from the model were further used to develop an RVF risk map for Kenya.

Results

The final output was a RVF risk map that classified 101 of 391 divisions (26%) located in 21 districts as high risk, and 100 of 391 divisions (26%) located in 35 districts as medium risk and 190 divisions (48%) as low risk, including all 97 divisions in Nyanza and Western provinces. The risk of RVF was positively associated with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), low altitude below 1000m and high precipitation in areas with solonertz, luvisols and vertisols soil types (p <0.05).

Conclusion

RVF risk map serves as an important tool for developing and deploying prevention and control measures against the disease.