Climate and demography of the planktivorous Cassin's auklet Ptychoramphus aleuticus off northern California: implications for population change

1. We performed demographic analyses on Cassin's auklet Ptychoramphus aleuticus, a zooplanktivorous seabird inhabiting the variable California Current System, to understand how temporal environmental variability influences population dynamics. 2. We used capture-recapture data from 1986 to 2002 to rank models of interannual variation in survival, breeding propensity, breeding success, and recruitment. 3. All demographic parameters exhibited temporal variability. Interannual variation in survival was best modelled as a nonlinear function of the winter Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Breeding propensity was best modelled as a threshold function of local sea surface temperature. Breeding success and recruitment were best modelled with year-dependent annual variation. 4. Changes in the SOI force El Ni?o/La Ni?a events, which in turn alter prey availability to seabirds in this system. Demographic responses varied during El Ni?os/La Ni?as. Survival diminished substantially during the 1997-98 El Ni?o event, while breeding propensity was affected during both the 1992 and 1998 El Ni?os. Breeding success was reduced during the 1992, 1993, and 1998 El Ni?os, but was unusually high in 2002. Recruitment was higher at the beginning and end of this time-series. 5. While demographic responses varied interannually, parameter values covaried in a positive fashion, a situation conducive to rapid population change. During the 11 years study period, the Farallon auklet breeding population declined at 6.05 +/- 0.80% (SE) per year, a cumulative decline of 49.7%. This study demonstrates how climate variability has influenced key demographic processes for this diminished marine bird population.     

Environmental variation and experience-related differences in the demography of the long-lived black-browed albatross

1. It has been largely demonstrated that demographic performances of animals increase with age or experience as a result of an improvement of foraging skills, an increasing reproductive effort or a selection process. However, little is known about the age or experience-related response of populations to environmental variations. Theoretical studies consider that age-related variations of the performances are greater under more restricting conditions, but this has rarely been tested. 2. We tested this hypothesis on a long-lived species, black browed albatross Thalassarche melanophrys Temminck, using a long-term capture-mark-recapture data set. We investigated the responses of a population to climate, by studying the effects of climatic factors and breeding experience on survival and breeding success. 3. First-time breeders appear to be poorer performers compared with experienced adults, with lower reproductive success and lower survival. In addition, interannual variations of demographic traits were partly explained by climatic indices, reflecting environmental variations. The survival probability of black-browed albatrosses varied with experience and climate, and differences being greater under harsh conditions. By contrast, the reproductive success of inexperienced individuals was affected by climatic fluctuations in the same way as the experienced ones. 4. First breeding event acts as a strong selective process on the highly heterogeneous class of inexperienced individuals, suggesting the increase in survival and breeding success with experience may mainly reflect a reduction in the heterogeneity among individual qualities.     

When to start and when to stop: Effects of climate on breeding in a multi‐brooded songbird

Climate warming has been shown to affect the timing of the onset of breeding of many bird species across the world. However, for multi‐brooded species, climate may also affect the timing of the end of the breeding season, and hence also its duration, and these effects may have consequences for fitness. We used 28 years of field data to investigate the links between climate, timing of breeding, and breeding success in a cooperatively breeding passerine, the superb fairy‐wren (Malurus cyaneus). This multi‐brooded species from southeastern Australia has a long breeding season and high variation in phenology between individuals. By applying a “sliding window” approach, we found that higher minimum temperatures in early spring resulted in an earlier start and a longer duration of breeding, whereas less rainfall and more heatwaves (days > 29°C) in late summer resulted in an earlier end and a shorter duration of breeding. Using a hurdle model analysis, we found that earlier start dates did not predict whether or not females produced any young in a season. However, for successful females who produced at least one young, earlier start dates were associated with higher numbers of young produced in a season. Earlier end dates were associated with a higher probability of producing at least one young, presumably because unsuccessful females kept trying when others had ceased. Despite larger scale trends in climate, climate variables in the windows relevant to this species’ phenology did not change across years, and there were no temporal trends in phenology during our study period. Our results illustrate a scenario in which higher temperatures advanced both start and end dates of individuals’ breeding seasons, but did not generate an overall temporal shift in breeding times. They also suggest that the complexity of selection pressures on breeding phenology in multi‐brooded species may have been underestimated.     

Monsoon-dependent breeding in the field crab Paratelphusa hydrodromous (Herbst)

The reproductive cycle of the field crab Paratelphusa hydrodromous (Herbst) was determined by direct field observations as well as by calculating the percentage of ovigerous females in a Madras population for a period of three years. The females breed annually in a single spawning. These observations, corroborated by histological studies on the nature of the ovary, indicate that gametogenic activity starts in December and vitellogenesis is completed during January-May. Spawning commences in the last week of June or first week of July with the release of brood in the month of September (1979), October (1978) or November (1980) during northeast monsoon. The smallest female crab showing spawning had a carapace width of 3.1 cm and the largest spawning crabs measured 5.5 mm. The mean number of eggs spawned in the smallest crab was 247 and that in the largest crab was 417. Mean incubation was 41 ± 12.388 days. Vitellogenesis and spawning occurred at peak temperature conditions. Though the time taken for vitellogenesis and commencement of spawning were constant for the study period, the duration of retention of the juveniles in the brood varied with the onset of monsoon.     

Suitability of using the global positioning system (GPS) for studying Feral Pigeons Columba livia in the urban habitat

Capsule GPS tracking gives very precise information about Feral Pigeons' spatio-temporal behaviour in the urban habitat.

Aims To test the suitability and the limits of GPS tracking in the urban habitat for a detailed analysis of Feral Pigeons' spatio-temporal behaviour.

Methods We placed ten receivers in eight different locations in the city of Basel, Switzerland. Between 1 and 23 April 2003, we performed 166 recordings and compared the stored positions with the real location. We also tested the GPS receivers on 29 free-living Feral Pigeons.

Results Almost 82% of the positions obtained with the GPS receivers were within 25 m and 96% within 100 m of the real location. The accuracy varied between locations, depending on the proportion of open sky. In 38% of the tests, no positions were stored. We performed 143 test flights with 29 Feral Pigeons (18 males and 11 females). A total of 118 flights produced ‘storable’ position information, 25 flights (17.5%) produced no storable data. Over 47% of the flights were complete (beginning and ending at loft), the others began or ended elsewhere. We encountered some difficulties: delays to get the first fix; reflection of the satellite signal on tall buildings; and limited battery life.

Conclusion Despite some difficulties related to the urban habitat and the technical features of the GPS receivers, we recommend the GPS-based tracking method for studying the spatio-temporal behaviour of Feral Pigeons and other birds weighing over 300 g and which are easy to capture.     

Disentangling the spatial and temporal causes of decline in a bird population

The difficulties in understanding the underlying reasons of a population decline lie in the typical short duration of field studies, the often too small size already reached by a declining population or the multitude of environmental factors that may influence population trend. In this difficult context, useful demographic tools such as integrated population models (IPM) may help disentangling the main reasons for a population decline. To understand why a hoopoe Upupa epops population has declined, we followed a three step model analysis. We built an IPM structured with respect to habitat quality (approximated by the expected availability of mole crickets, the main prey in our population) and estimated the contributions of habitat‐specific demographic rates to population variation and decline. We quantified how much each demographic rate has decreased and investigated whether habitat quality influenced this decline. We tested how much weather conditions and research activities contributed to the decrease in the different demographic rates. The decline of the hoopoe population was mainly explained by a decrease in first‐year apparent survival and a reduced number of fledglings produced, particularly in habitats of high quality. Since a majority of pairs bred in habitats of the highest quality, the decrease in the production of locally recruited yearlings in high‐quality habitat was the main driver of the population decline despite a homogeneous drop of recruitment across habitats. Overall, the explanatory variables we tested only accounted for 19% of the decrease in the population growth rate. Among these variables, the effects of spring temperature (49% of the explained variance) contributed more to population decline than spring precipitation (36%) and research activities (maternal capture delay, 15%). This study shows the power of IPMs for identifying the vital rates involved in population declines and thus paves the way for targeted conservation and management actions.     

Climate change and the incidence of food poisoning in England and Wales

In recent years there have been several spells of high temperatures providing analogues for the conditions that might become more common as a result of the enhanced greenhouse effect. Statistical models were developed of the relationship between the monthly incidence of food poisoning and temperatures and these were then used to provide estimates of the possible effects of future warmer summers. Routinely collected data on the number of reported cases of food poisoning were analysed for the years 1982–1991. Regression analysis was used to establish the relationship between the monthly incidence of food poisoning and temperatures of the same and the previous month. Published scenarios for future temperatures were applied to these statistical models to provide estimates of the possible impacts of warmer conditions. The monthly incidence of food poisoning was found to be significantly associated with the temperature of the same and of the previous month with the latter having the stronger effect. Using published data on the relationship between reported and actual numbers of cases of food poisoning, it is estimated that annually there might be an additional 179 000 cases of food poisoning by the year 2050 as a result of climate change. The observed relationship with the same month's temperature underlines the need for improvements in storage, preparation and hygiene close to the point of consumption. However, there was a much stronger relationship with the temperature of the previous month, indicating the importance of conditions earlier in the food production process. Improvements in areas such as animal husbandry and slaughtering may also be necessary to avoid the adverse effects of a warmer climate.     

Climate warming induced a stretch of the breeding season and an increase of second clutches in a passerine breeding at its altitudinal limits

The increase in the average air temperature due to global warming has produced an early onset of the reproduction in many migratory birds of the Paleartic region. According to the “mismatch hypothesis” this response can lead to a decrease in the breeding output when the conditions that trigger the departure from the wintering areas do not match the availability of food resources in the breeding ground. We used 653 brooding events registered during the period 1991–2013 to investigate the link between climatic variables and individual breeding performance of a partially migratory passerine, the Rock Sparrow Petronia petronia, breeding at the altitude limit of its distribution. The laying date (LD) of the earliest first clutch was associated with local spring (minimum) temperatures but did not show a significant trend during the period considered. The LD of the latest first clutch had a positive and statistically significant trend, unrelated to local covariates and resulting in a longer breeding season (∼1.5 days/year). A longer breeding season allowed birds to produce more second clutches, which proportion increased from 0.14 to 0.25. The average breeding success was also positively correlated with the average temperature in July and with the duration of the breeding season. Contrary to expectations, the most important climate-dependent effect was a stretch of the breeding season due to a significant increase of the LD of the latest first-clutches rather than an earlier breeding onset. We show how climate changes act on bird populations through multiple paths and stress the need to assess the link between climatic variables and several aspects of the breeding cycle.     

Climate change and the risks associated with delayed breeding in a tropical wild bird population

There is growing evidence of changes in the timing of important ecological events, such as flowering in plants and reproduction in animals, in response to climate change, with implications for population decline and biodiversity loss. Recent work has shown that the timing of breeding in wild birds is changing in response to climate change partly because individuals are remarkably flexible in their timing of breeding. Despite this work, our understanding of these processes in wild populations remains very limited and biased towards species from temperate regions. Here, we report the response to changing climate in a tropical wild bird population using a long-term dataset on a formerly critically endangered island endemic, the Mauritius kestrel. We show that the frequency of spring rainfall affects the timing of breeding, with birds breeding later in wetter springs. Delays in breeding have consequences in terms of reduced reproductive success as birds get exposed to risks associated with adverse climatic conditions later on in the breeding season, which reduce nesting success. These results, combined with the fact that frequency of spring rainfall has increased by about 60 per cent in our study area since 1962, imply that climate change is exposing birds to the stochastic risks of late reproduction by causing them to start breeding relatively late in the season.     

A high‐quality pedigree and genetic markers both reveal inbreeding depression for quality but not survival in a cooperative mammal

Inbreeding depression, the reduced fitness of offspring of closely related parents, is commonplace in both captive and wild populations and has important consequences for conservation and mating system evolution. However, because of the difficulty of collecting pedigree and life‐history data from wild populations, relatively few studies have been able to compare inbreeding depression for traits at different points in the life cycle. Moreover, pedigrees give the expected proportion of the genome that is identical by descent (IBD_g) whereas in theory with enough molecular markers realized IBD_g can be quantified directly. We therefore investigated inbreeding depression for multiple life‐history traits in a wild population of banded mongooses using pedigree‐based inbreeding coefficients (f_ped) and standardized multilocus heterozygosity (sMLH) measured at 35–43 microsatellites. Within an information theoretic framework, we evaluated support for either f_ped or sMLH as inbreeding terms and used sequential regression to determine whether the residuals of sMLH on f_ped explain fitness variation above and beyond f_ped. We found no evidence of inbreeding depression for survival, either before or after nutritional independence. By contrast, inbreeding was negatively associated with two quality‐related traits, yearling body mass and annual male reproductive success. Yearling body mass was associated with f_ped but not sMLH, while male annual reproductive success was best explained by both f_ped and residual sMLH. Thus, our study not only uncovers variation in the extent to which different traits show inbreeding depression, but also reveals trait‐specific differences in the ability of pedigrees and molecular markers to explain fitness variation and suggests that for certain traits, genetic markers may capture variation in realized IBD_g above and beyond the pedigree expectation.     

Climate change enhances primary production in the western Antarctic Peninsula

Intense regional warming was observed in the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) over the last 50 years. Here, we investigate the impact of climate change on primary production (PP) in this highly productive region. This study is based on temporal data series of ozone thickness (1972–2010), sea ice concentration (1978–2010), sea‐surface temperature (1990–2010), incident irradiance (1988–2010) and satellite‐derived chlorophyll a concentration (Chl‐a, 1997–2010) for the coastal WAP. In addition, we apply a photosynthesis/photoinhibition spectral model to satellite‐derived data (1997–2010) to compute PP and examine the separate impacts of environmental forcings. Since 1978, sea ice retreat has been occurring earlier in the season (in March in 1978 and in late October during the 2000s) while the ozone hole is present in early spring (i.e. August to November) since the early 1990s, increasing the intensity of ultraviolet‐B radiation (UVBR, 280–320 nm). The WAP waters have also warmed over 1990–2010. The modelled PP rates are in the lower range of previously reported PP rates in the WAP. The annual open water PP in the study area increased from 1997 to 2010 (from 0.73 to 1.03 Tg C yr^?1) concomitantly with the increase in the production season length. The coincidence between the earlier sea ice retreat and the presence of the ozone hole increased the exposure to incoming radiation (UVBR, UVAR and PAR) and, thus, increased photoinhibition during austral spring (September to November) in the study area (from 0.014 to 0.025 Tg C yr^?1). This increase in photoinhibition was minor compared to the overall increase in PP, however. Climate change hence had an overall positive impact on PP in the WAP waters.     

Competition with filamentous fungi and its implication for a gregarious lifestyle in insects living on ephemeral resources

Abstract. 1. Recent studies have demonstrated the existence of positive density dependence in the survival and development of Drosophila (the so‐called Allee effect); however the underlying mechanisms of such Allee effects have remained elusive. Competition with filamentous fungi have often been suggested to be involved in causing high mortality at low larval density, but it has not yet been explicitly tested if the well known spatial aggregation of insect eggs yields a fitness benefit for the developing larvae in the presence of noxious moulds. 2. Using Drosophila melanogaster, the present study tested whether larval survival is greater in aggregations when confronted with various combinations of three representative mould species (Aspergillus, Alternaria, and Penicillium) and a head start for fungal development. 3. High rates of fungal‐dependent mortality and significant positive density‐dependent larval survival (i.e. Allee effects) were observed when larvae were confronted with food resources containing established colonies of Aspergillus or Alternaria. Neither the simultaneous transfer of Aspergillus or Alternaria spores with larvae to food patches nor food infections with Penicillium affected insect larval development. 4. Significant correlations between mould growth and larval survival could be identified, although the patterns that emerged were shown to be inconsistent when the effects were compared between fungal species and fungal priority. Because mould growth only partly explained larval survival, the influence of other fungal‐borne factors, e.g. mycotoxins, needs to be elucidated in order to understand the mechanistic basis of insect–mould interactions. 5. These results are the first to argue convincingly for moulds being involved in mediating Allee effects for insects on ephemeral resources; however they also demonstrate an unexpected diversity in insect–mould interactions. Considering this diversity may be important in understanding insect spatial ecology.