IMPROVED BODY CONDITION OF WEANED HAWAIIAN MONK SEAL PUPS ASSOCIATED WITH EL Niño EVENTS: POTENTIAL BENEFITS TO AN ENDANGERED SPECIES

Efforts to enhance recovery of endangered Hawaiian monk seals ( Monachus schauinslandi ) require an understanding of factors influencing population dynamics. This study examines relationships between body condition and survival of monk seal pups at French Frigate Shoals and Laysan Island and El Niño events. Girth measurements and mass estimates were used as indicators of pup body condition, and survival was evaluated from weaning to age 2. Linear models and logistic regression analysis were used to evaluate El Niño effects. Temporal trends in mean girth, mass, and survival were identified at both study sites. After accounting for temporal trends, girths were 3.7 cm and 2.7 cm greater during El Niño years at French Frigate Shoals and Laysan Island, respectively. Average mass estimates were significantly greater during El Niño years at French Frigate Shoals (2.6 kg increase), but were not significantly different at Laysan Island (1.8 kg increase). Weaned pups born at French Frigate Shoals during El Niño years survived significantly better, but this effect was not detected at Laysan Island. El Niño events probably affect pup condition and survival, but these parameters need to be monitored during future El Niño events to clarify these relationships.     

Dynamics of the shallow-water fish assemblage of the Patos Lagoon estuary (Brazil) during cold and warm ENSO episodes

In southern Brazil, cold ( La Niña ) and warm ( El Niño ) episodes of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon cause drought and high rainfall, respectively. The low precipitation and freshwater outflow associated with La Niña during 1995–1996 were associated with an increase in the abundance of marine species in the Patos Lagoon estuary. During the 1997–1998 El Niño , high precipitation and river discharge were associated with low abundance of marine species in the estuary. ANOVA results showed a higher abundance during La Niña than El Niño for estuarine resident (RES) and estuarine dependent (DEP) fishes. During La Niña catch per unit of effort (CPUE) of RES increased from the marine to estuarine area, but during El Niño CPUE increased at the marine area and diminished during summer and autumn in some estuarine sites. DEP fishes had an opposite abundance pattern. During La Niña , these fishes were abundant at the coastal marine area and along some estuarine sites, but during El Niño , CPUE remained almost the same at the marine area but dropped along some estuarine sites. These different abundance patterns for dominant fish groups yielded a positive interaction between stations and climatic events. With higher river discharge and the consequent decline of dominant euryhaline fishes, such as Mugil platanus and Atherinella brasiliensis , freshwater species increased in abundance and richness in the shallow waters of the stuary. The ENSO phenomenon influences precipitation and estuarine salinity in southern Brazil and thereby seems to have a strong influence on recruitment, immigration, and emigration dynamics of fish species living within and adjacent to estuarine habitats.     

VARIATION IN TOXIN PRODUCTION OF SYNCHRONIZED CULTURES OF CHRYSOCHROMULINA POLYLEPIS (PRYMNESIOPHYTA)

We studied spatial variability in giant kelp ( Macrocystis pyrifera ) forests at 84 sites along the west coast of North America in order to assess the impacts of the 1997–98 El Niño. Our sites spanned the geographic range of giant kelp in the Northern Hemisphere and were surveyed just before, immediately following, several months after, more than one year after, and nearly two years after the El Niño. Interspersion of sample units allowed us to compare the effects of this disturbance among spatial scales ranging from a few meters to more than a thousand kilometers. Variance components analyses revealed that El Niño shifted the relative importance of factors that regulate giant kelp communities from factors acting at the scale of a few meters (local control) to factors operating at hundreds of kilometers (regional control). Moreover, El Niño resulted in a near-to-complete loss of giant kelp populations throughout nearly two-thirds of the species' range. Evaluation of these effects along with oceanographic data (at the "appropriate" spatial scales), along with closer examination of giant kelp populations in the most severely impacted region (Baja) suggested that the among-region differences in giant kelp survival was due, at least in part, to El Niño-induced differences in ocean climate. Giant kelp recovery following El Niño was also scale-dependent, but driven by factors different from those of the disturbance. Here, we present results for several species of macroalgae in an attempt to relate the importance of El Niño to that of other processes in creating scale-dependent patterns of variability.     

La Niña's signature: synchronous decline of the mammal community in a 'protected' area in India

Mounting evidence indicates large-scale climatic phenomena such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can overwhelm endogenous factors that govern the population dynamics of wild species. We add to this evidence by documenting an ENSO-related decline of large mammals in the Kumbhalgarh Wildlife Sanctuary, in Rajasthan, India. This event coincided with the drought of 2000, following two consecutive monsoon failures. Time series of biennial counts (1991–2005) shared a common feature: all 13 species declined in abundance from 1999 to 2001, with 11 species experiencing an apparent decline exceeding 25%. An ENSO index explained much of the variability in population size, apparently reflecting mass mortality and/or recruitment failure caused by the major 1998–2000 La Niña event, followed by a rapid rebound. ENSO apparently overwhelmed endogenous factors and synchronized the dynamics of the mammalian community. Our findings may prove to be symptomatic of geographically broad impacts of large-scale climate on the dynamics of terrestrial vertebrate communities, even in protected areas. Our findings reinforce the growing recognition that we should not overlook global-scale causal agents of ecological change.     

Accounting for dispersal and biotic interactions to disentangle the drivers of species distributions and their abundances

Although abiotic factors, together with dispersal and biotic interactions, are often suggested to explain the distribution of species and their abundances, species distribution models usually focus on abiotic factors only. We propose an integrative framework linking ecological theory, empirical data and statistical models to understand the distribution of species and their abundances together with the underlying community assembly dynamics. We illustrate our approach with 21 plant species in the French Alps. We show that a spatially nested modelling framework significantly improves the model's performance and that the spatial variations of species presence-absence and abundances are predominantly explained by different factors. We also show that incorporating abiotic, dispersal and biotic factors into the same model bring new insights to our understanding of community assembly. This approach, at the crossroads between community ecology and biogeography, is a promising avenue for a better understanding of species co-existence and biodiversity distribution.     

Seasonal, El Niño and longer term changes in flower and seed production in a moist tropical forest

It has recently been reported that humid tropical forests are changing rapidly in response to global anthropogenic change and that these forests experience greater tree mortality and even fire during droughts associated with El Niño events. The former reports are controversial largely because a single method has been used – repeated censuses of tree plots. The latter reports focus on recent extreme El Niño events. Here, we show that flower and seed production both increase during El Niño events in an old-growth tropical forest in Panama. Flower production, but not seed production, has also increased over the past 18 years. The sustained increase in flower production was greater for 33 liana species than for 48 tree species. These results indicate that moderate El Niño events favour seed production, document long-term increases in flower production for the first time, and corroborate long-term increases in the importance of lianas using independent methods. Changes in levels of solar irradiance might contribute to all three patterns.     

Food web structure and climate effects on the dynamics of small mammals and owls in semi-arid Chile

Population dynamics of small mammals and predators in semi-arid Chile is positively correlated with rainfall associated with incursions of El Niño (El Niño Southern Oscillation: ENSO). However, the causal relationships between small mammal fluctuations, predator oscillations, and climatic disturbances are poorly understood. Here, we report time series models for three species of small mammal prey and two species of owl predators. The large differences in population fluctuations between the three small mammal species are related to differences in their respective feedback structures. The analyses reveal that per capita growth rate of the leaf-eared mouse is a decreasing function of log density and of log barn owl abundance together with a positive rainfall effect. In turn, per capita population growth rate ( R -function) of the barn owl is a negative function of log barn owl abundance and a positive function of leaf-eared mouse abundance, suggesting a predator–prey interaction. The dramatic population fluctuations exhibited by leaf-eared mouse ( Phyllotis darwini ) are caused by climate effects coupled with a complex food web architecture.     

Effects of seedling size, El Niño drought, seedling density, and distance to nearest conspecific adult on 6-year survival of Ocotea whitei seedlings in Panamá

We present an analysis of the long-term survival of two cohorts of seedlings of the tropical canopy tree Ocotea whitei (Lauraceae) on a 1-ha plot of mature, lowland moist forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panamá. In 1980, we counted an even-aged cohort of seedlings that germinated in 1979, then measured and tagged survivors in 1981. We also measured and tagged a second, smaller cohort of seedlings that germinated in 1981. We followed the subsequent survival of all seedlings through 1985. Seedling mortality was phenotypically, temporally, and spatially non-random. Important correlates of non-random mortality included: (1) seedling size and age, (2) an El Niño drought, and (3) biotic neighborhood. Larger and older seedlings survived better than smaller and younger seedlings, respectively, and the El Niño-related drought of 1982-1983 was associated with elevated mortality rates. Seedling density, which was strongly correlated with the proximity to the nearest conspecific adult, increased mortality. The observed mortality patterns suggest that processes consistent with the Janzen-Connell hypothesis operate during the recruitment phase of O. whitei population dynamics. However, the processes causing the observed density- and distance-dependent mortality may vary with factors such as total seed number, seedling size, and climatic variation, making it difficult to determine whether time-integrated seedling-to-adult spacing mechanisms other than self-thinning operate on a given plant population. After 6 years in the hectare studied, survivors remained densest and most numerous underneath the adult trees. We conclude that only long-term demographic data, collected at a variety of scales on a variety of species, will ultimately answer the question: do Janzen-Connell effects contribute substantially to structuring tropical forests?     

El Niño events, precipitation patterns, and rodent outbreaks are statistically associated in semiarid Chile

In the last two decades, several researchers have noted rodent population outbreaks in semiarid South America, in association with unusually high precipitation that seemingly concurs with El Niño events. To date, no studies have been conducted to determine the statistical relationships between ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) events, increased precipitation, and rodent irruptions. Here we show that: 1) there is a statistical association between ENSO events and inereased precipitation in the semiarid region of northern Chile: 2) the occurrence of rodent outbreaks in that region is statistically related with the precipitation levels of the same year: 3) the multi-annual patterns of the total annual precipitation levels and population abundance of those rodents during the summer are positively associated. The putative chain of effects seems to start with unusually high rainfall brought by ENSO to semiarid environments, which thus respond with inereased primary productivity (herbage and seeds), which then fuels the rodent outbreaks.     

The role of biotic factors in the transmission of free-living endohelminth stages

The transmission success of free-living larval stages of endohelminths is generally modulated by a variety of abiotic and biotic environmental factors. Whereas the role of abiotic factors (including anthropogenic pollutants) has been in focus in numerous studies and summarized in reviews, the role of biotic factors has received much less attention. Here, we review the existing body of literature from the fields of parasitology and ecology and recognize 6 different types of biotic factors with the potential to alter larval transmission processes. We found that experimental studies generally indicate strong effects of biotic factors, and the latter emerge as potentially important, underestimated determinants in the transmission ecology of free-living endohelminth stages. This implies that biodiversity, in general, should have significant effects on parasite transmission and population dynamics. These effects are likely to interact with natural abiotic factors and anthropogenic pollutants. Investigating the interplay of abiotic and biotic factors will not only be crucial for a thorough understanding of parasite transmission processes, but will also be a prerequisite to anticipate the effects of climate and other global changes on helminth parasites and their host communities.     

The effects of seasonal and interannual variability of oceanic structure in the western Pacific North Equatorial Current on larval transport of the Japanese eel Anguilla japonica

As the North Equatorial Current (NEC)–bifurcation is known to be related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, the influence of the position of the NEC bifurcation on transport success of the larval Japanese eel Anguilla japonica was investigated. Using a Lagrangian modelling approach, larval transport was simulated and the relative influence of El Niño and La Niña events and the NEC-bifurcation position on the success of particle transport analysed. The number of particles transported from the NEC to the Kuroshio tended to be lowest during El Niño years, and differences between La Niña and regular years were small. The transport success observed in simulations showed some relationships to annual A. japonica glass eel recruitment to Tanegashima Island over 1993 to 2001, but not in 2002. The study shows that particle tracking simulations can be used to improve knowledge of the oceanic migration of A. japonica but further studies are required, including comparisons with the effects on larval survival of fluctuations in temperature and food availability.     

Ecological effects of El Niño in terrestrial ecosystems of western South America

I make a summary review of how El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) determines peculiar atmospheric and oceanographic conditions in western South America, thus affecting precipitation patterns in adjacent land masses, with cascading effects on marine and terrestrial plants, on sea and land birds, and on marine and terrestrial mammals. With regard to terrestrial ecosystems, I discuss the following biotic responses to El Niño-driven precipitation: 1) aboveground vegetation flushes immediately among herbs but not among shrubs. 2) The seed bank is quickly replenished of ephemeral seeds, but perennial seeds recover one year later. 3) Small rodents Irrupt within months of El Niño arrival, but larger ones take a full year to increase. 4) Predator numbers lag one year behind their mammal prey, with smaller predators responding more quickly. Considering these responses, I offer a simplified model of El Niño-driven bottom-up control in terrestrial ecosystems of western South America. Apart from the direct links already described, there is a weak feedback loop between the plant compartments (vegetation and seeds) and their herbivores: primary productivy is the driving force, and is little affected by herbivory. Another weak feedbaek loop links herbivores and their predators: the latter seem to just "surf" over prey levels, skimming excess prey.     

Inter-hemispheric synchrony of forest fires and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Fire histories were compared between the south-western United States and northern Patagonia, Argentina using both documentary records (1914–87 and 1938–96, respectively) and tree-ring reconstructions over the past several centuries. The two regions share similar fire–climate relationships and similar relationships of climatic anomalies to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In both regions, El Niño events coincide with above-average cool season precipitation and increased moisture availability to plants during the growing season. Conversely, La Niña events correspond with drought conditions. Monthly patterns of ENSO indicators (southern oscillation indices and tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures) preceding years of exceptionally widespread fires are highly similar in both regions during the 20th century. Major fire years tend to follow the switching from El Niño to La Niña conditions. El Niño conditions enhance the production of fine fuels, which when desiccated by La Niña conditions create conditions for widespread wildfires. Decadal-scale patterns of fire occurrence since the mid-17th century are highly similar in both regions. A period of decreased fire occurrence in both regions from c. 1780–1830 coincides with decreased amplitude and/or frequency of ENSO events. The interhemispheric synchrony of fire regimes in these two distant regions is tentatively interpreted to be a response to decadal-scale changes in ENSO activity. The ENSO–fire relationships of the south-western USA and northern Patagonia document the importance of high-frequency climatic variation to fire hazard. Thus, in addition to long-term trends in mean climatic conditions, multi-decadal scale changes in year-to-year variability need to be considered in assessments of the potential influence of climatic change on fire regimes.     

Effects of large-scale climatic fluctuations on survival and production of young in a Neotropical migrant songbird, the yellow warbler Dendroica petechia

Migrant songbirds are vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions on both the breeding and wintering grounds. For North American Neotropical migrants, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), via its effects on global precipitation and temperature, modulates the productivity of their temperate and tropical terrestrial ecosystems used during the course of their annual cycle. We evaluated how a densely nesting population of yellow warblers Dendroica petechia in a riparian forest in southern Manitoba, Canada, responded to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) between 1992 and 2001. Standardized mist netting was used to estimate apparent annual survival of adults and production of young. Both adult survival and the production of young were positively correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). More specifically, values of both these demographic parameters were lowest during El Niño years and highest during La Niña years. These findings demonstrate the influence of climate on populations of Neotropical migrants in North America. The more frequent El Niños predicted to result from future global climate change could negatively affect populations of yellow warblers and other Neotropical migrants breeding in this region.     

Spatiotemporal fire occurrence in Borneo over a period of 10 years

South-east Asia's tropical rainforests are experiencing the highest rate of deforestation worldwide and fire is one of the most important drivers of forest loss and subsequent carbon dioxide emissions. In this study, we analyzed all fire events in Borneo recorded by satellites over a period of 10 years. About 16.2 Mha, which corresponds to 21% of the land surface, have been affected by fire at least once and 6% more than one time. During El Niño conditions, which cause prolonged droughts in the region, the fire-affected area was on average three times larger than during normal weather conditions. Similarly, fires in forests affected 0.3 Mha in normal years and 1 Mha during El Niño years. Carbon rich peat swamp forest ecosystems were most severely affected. There is a pronounced difference in fire occurrence between different countries and provinces in Borneo although ecosystem and land use are very similar across the island. Compared with Sarawak, Sabah (Malaysia) and Brunei the relative annual fire-affected area in Kalimantan, the Indonesian part of Borneo, was on average five times larger. During El Niño conditions the fire-affected area increased only in Kalimantan and not in Brunei and the Malaysia. A similar pattern was observed in National Parks. This suggests, that El Niño related droughts are not the only cause of increased fire occurrence and do not necessarily lead to a higher number of fire events. These results improve our understanding of existing fire regimes and drivers of fire in SE Asian tropical ecosystems and may help to better protect the remaining rainforests.     

Little evidence for climate effects on local-scale structure and dynamics of California kelp forest communities

Climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation play an important role in controlling local and regional scale differences in population dynamics and species distributions, and large-scale climatic events such as El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) have been shown to affect population dynamics of key species in many ecosystems, particularly in kelp forests. Few studies have been able to evaluate the consequences of climate variables on the structure and dynamics of biological communities, in large part because the lack of data at appropriate spatial and temporal scales has made it difficult to adequately address local-scale responses of species and communities to such events over relevant time scales. Here, we combined an unprecedented dataset of kelp forest species' abundances from the Channel Islands, California with data for several local, regional, and global scale climatic variables to evaluate the temporal and spatial scale at which one can detect community-wide effects of climate variables, in particular ENSO events. We found large and significant local-scale differences in community structure, but these differences were not related to differences in climatic variables. Moreover, giant kelp abundance, which has been shown to be highly sensitive to water temperature and storm disturbance, was a poor predictor of community differences, and all communities tended to decline in abundance over the 20-year sampling period, suggesting a press perturbation to the system such as PDO cycles or sustained fishing pressure. Although ENSO events can have dramatic impacts on the abundance and distribution of giant kelp itself across the range of the species, such events appear to have little effect on local-scale kelp forest community structure or dynamics.     

Mass Coral Reef Bleaching: A Recent Outcome of Increased El Niño Activity?

Coral reefs are generally considered to be the most biologically productive of all marine ecosystems, but in recent times these vulnerable aquatic resources have been subject to unusual degradation. The general decline in reefs has been greatly accelerated by mass bleaching in which corals whiten en masse and often fail to recover. Empirical evidence indicates a coral reef bleaching cycle in which major bleaching episodes are synchronized with El Niño events that occur every 3–4 years on average. By heating vast areas of the Pacific Ocean, and affecting the Indian and Atlantic Oceans as well, El Niño causes widespread damage to reefs largely because corals are very sensitive to temperature changes. However, mass bleaching events were rarely observed before the 1970s and their abrupt appearance two decades ago remains an enigma. Here we propose a new explanation for the sudden occurrence of mass bleaching and show that it may be a response to the relative increase in El Niño experienced over the last two decades.     

Climate extremes are associated with invertebrate taxonomic and functional composition in mountain lakes

Climate change is expected to increase climate variability and the occurrence of extreme climatic events, with potentially devastating effects on aquatic ecosystems. However, little is known about the role of climate extremes in structuring aquatic communities or the interplay between climate and local abiotic and biotic factors. Here, we examine the relative influence of climate and local abiotic and biotic conditions on biodiversity and community structure in lake invertebrates. We sampled aquatic invertebrates and measured environmental variables in 19 lakes throughout California, USA, to test hypotheses of the relationship between climate, local biotic and environmental conditions, and the taxonomic and functional structure of aquatic invertebrate communities. We found that, while local biotic and abiotic factors such as habitat availability and conductivity were the most consistent predictors of alpha diversity, extreme climate conditions such as maximum summer temperature and dry‐season precipitation were most often associated with multivariate taxonomic and functional composition. Specifically, sites with high maximum temperatures and low dry‐season precipitation housed communities containing high abundances of large predatory taxa. Furthermore, both climate dissimilarity and abiotic dissimilarity determined taxonomic turnover among sites (beta diversity). These findings suggest that while local‐scale environmental variables may predict alpha diversity, climatic variability is important to consider when projecting broad‐scale aquatic community responses to the extreme temperature and precipitation events that are expected for much of the world during the next century.     

亚热带-温带过渡区秦岭落叶阔叶林幼苗存活机制

【目的】物种幼苗的存活与各种生物和非生物因素密切相关,研究关键因素对幼苗存活的影响有助于理解群落物种共存的主要作用机制。【方法】以秦岭落叶阔叶林25 hm²固定样地的木本植物幼苗为对象,对11 408棵幼苗的生存动态开展连续5年(2015—2019年)的监测,利用广义线性混合模型(GLMMs)在群落水平上对影响不同年龄阶段幼苗存活的主要生物与非生物因素进行分析。【结果】(1)从群落水平来看,对幼苗存活影响最大的是生物因素,幼苗存活率与同种幼苗邻体密度和同种大树邻体胸高断面积呈显著负相关,与异种幼苗邻体密度呈显著正相关,表明物种在幼苗时期受到强烈的负密度制约效应;(2)从苗龄水平上来看,除了生物因素,影响幼苗存活的主要因素还包括海拔等非生物因素,但非生物因素的影响随着苗龄增大而减小。【结论】影响幼苗存活因素是多样的,其中生物因素的影响更显著,促进秦岭大样地中幼苗共存的主要机制为负密度制约效应。     

Local-scale drivers of tree survival in a temperate forest

Tree survival plays a central role in forest ecosystems. Although many factors such as tree size, abiotic and biotic neighborhoods have been proposed as being important in explaining patterns of tree survival, their contributions are still subject to debate. We used generalized linear mixed models to examine the relative importance of tree size, local abiotic conditions and the density and identity of neighbors on tree survival in an old-growth temperate forest in northeastern China at three levels (community, guild and species). Tree size and both abiotic and biotic neighborhood variables influenced tree survival under current forest conditions, but their relative importance varied dramatically within and among the community, guild and species levels. Of the variables tested, tree size was typically the most important predictor of tree survival, followed by biotic and then abiotic variables. The effect of tree size on survival varied from strongly positive for small trees (1-20 cm dbh) and medium trees (20-40 cm dbh), to slightly negative for large trees (>40 cm dbh). Among the biotic factors, we found strong evidence for negative density and frequency dependence in this temperate forest, as indicated by negative effects of both total basal area of neighbors and the frequency of conspecific neighbors. Among the abiotic factors tested, soil nutrients tended to be more important in affecting tree survival than topographic variables. Abiotic factors generally influenced survival for species with relatively high abundance, for individuals in smaller size classes and for shade-tolerant species. Our study demonstrates that the relative importance of variables driving patterns of tree survival differs greatly among size classes, species guilds and abundance classes in temperate forest, which can further understanding of forest dynamics and offer important insights into forest management.