Skeletal records of community-level bleaching in Porites corals from Palau

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature is projected to rise an additional 2–3 °C by the end of this century, driving an increase in the frequency and intensity of coral bleaching. With significant global coral reef cover already lost due to bleaching-induced mortality, efforts are underway to identify thermally tolerant coral communities that might survive projected warming. Massive, long-lived corals accrete skeletal bands of anomalously high density in response to episodes of thermal stress. These “stress bands” are potentially valuable proxies for thermal tolerance, but to date their application to questions of community bleaching history has been limited. Ecological surveys recorded bleaching of coral communities across the Palau archipelago during the 1998 and 2010 warm events. Between 2011 and 2015, we extracted skeletal cores from living Porites colonies at 10 sites spanning barrier reef and lagoon environments and quantified the proportion of stress bands present in each population during bleaching years. Across Palau, the prevalence of stress bands tracked the severity of thermal stress, with more stress bands occurring in 1998 (degree heating weeks = 13.57 °C-week) than during the less severe 2010 event (degree heating weeks = 4.86 °C-week). Stress band prevalence also varied by reef type, as more corals on the exposed barrier reef formed stress bands than did corals from sheltered lagoon environments. Comparison of Porites stress band prevalence with bleaching survey data revealed a strong correlation between percent community bleaching and the proportion of colonies with stress bands in each year. Conversely, annual calcification rates did not decline consistently during bleaching years nor did annually resolved calcification histories always track interannual variability in temperature. Our data suggest that stress bands in massive corals contain valuable information about spatial and temporal trends in coral reef bleaching and can aid in conservation efforts to identify temperature-tolerant coral reef communities.

     

Coral reef resilience to thermal stress in the Eastern Tropical Pacific

Coral reefs worldwide are threatened by thermal stress caused by climate change. Especially devastating periods of coral loss frequently occur during El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events originating in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP). El Niño‐induced thermal stress is considered the primary threat to ETP coral reefs. An increase in the frequency and intensity of ENSO events predicted in the coming decades threatens a pan‐tropical collapse of coral reefs. During the 1982–1983 El Niño, most reefs in the Galapagos Islands collapsed, and many more in the region were decimated by massive coral bleaching and mortality. However, after repeated thermal stress disturbances, such as those caused by the 1997–1998 El Niño, ETP corals reefs have demonstrated regional persistence and resiliency. Using a 44 year dataset (1970–2014) of live coral cover from the ETP, we assess whether ETP reefs exhibit the same decline as seen globally for other reefs. Also, we compare the ETP live coral cover rate of change with data from the maximum Degree Heating Weeks experienced by these reefs to assess the role of thermal stress on coral reef survival. We find that during the period 1970–2014, ETP coral cover exhibited temporary reductions following major ENSO events, but no overall decline. Further, we find that ETP reef recovery patterns allow coral to persist under these El Niño‐stressed conditions, often recovering from these events in 10–15 years. Accumulative heat stress explains 31% of the overall annual rate of change of living coral cover in the ETP. This suggests that ETP coral reefs have adapted to thermal extremes to date, and may have the ability to adapt to near‐term future climate‐change thermal anomalies. These findings for ETP reef resilience may provide general insights for the future of coral reef survival and recovery elsewhere under intensifying El Niño scenarios.     

The effect of microhabitat patch size on settlement differs among co-occurring coral reef fishes

Over small spatial scales, coral reefs represent a mosaic of suitable settlement microhabitat patches of varying size for late-stage larval reef fishes. Few studies have specifically examined how variation in patch size influences density of recently settled coral reef fishes (recruits). Using standardized units of coral rubble settlement substrate deployed on sandy bottom, we monitored the concurrent settlement of three reef fish taxa onto differently sized patches (0.28–1.68 m²) at 5-d intervals during a lunar settlement peak. We found marked differences among taxa in how recruit density scaled with patch size. Recruit density of a damselfish and a parrotfish decreased and increased, respectively, with the increase in patch size, while that of a wrasse was similar among patch sizes. Our results highlight the importance of the interaction between taxon-specific settlement behaviour and patch size in establishing initial spatial differences in density within and among coral reef fish taxa in a heterogeneous landscape.

     

Caribbean mesophotic coral ecosystems are unlikely climate change refugia

Deeper coral reefs experience reduced temperatures and light and are often shielded from localized anthropogenic stressors such as pollution and fishing. The deep reef refugia hypothesis posits that light‐dependent stony coral species at deeper depths are buffered from thermal stress and will avoid bleaching‐related mass mortalities caused by increasing sea surface temperatures under climate change. This hypothesis has not been tested because data collection on deeper coral reefs is difficult. Here we show that deeper (mesophotic) reefs, 30–75 m depth, in the Caribbean are not refugia because they have lower bleaching threshold temperatures than shallow reefs. Over two thermal stress events, mesophotic reef bleaching was driven by a bleaching threshold that declines 0.26 °C every +10 m depth. Thus, the main premise of the deep reef refugia hypothesis that cooler environments are protective is incorrect; any increase in temperatures above the local mean warmest conditions can lead to thermal stress and bleaching. Thus, relatively cooler temperatures can no longer be considered a de facto refugium for corals and it is likely that many deeper coral reefs are as vulnerable to climate change as shallow water reefs.     

Tropical cyclone cooling combats region‐wide coral bleaching

Coral bleaching has become more frequent and widespread as a result of rising sea surface temperature (SST). During a regional scale SST anomaly, reef exposure to thermal stress is patchy in part due to physical factors that reduce SST to provide thermal refuge. Tropical cyclones (TCs – hurricanes, typhoons) can induce temperature drops at spatial scales comparable to that of the SST anomaly itself. Such cyclone cooling can mitigate bleaching across broad areas when well‐timed and appropriately located, yet the spatial and temporal prevalence of this phenomenon has not been quantified. Here, satellite SST and historical TC data are used to reconstruct cool wakes (n=46) across the Caribbean during two active TC seasons (2005 and 2010) where high thermal stress was widespread. Upon comparison of these datasets with thermal stress data from Coral Reef Watch and published accounts of bleaching, it is evident that TC cooling reduced thermal stress at a region‐wide scale. The results show that during a mass bleaching event, TC cooling reduced thermal stress below critical levels to potentially mitigate bleaching at some reefs, and interrupted natural warming cycles to slow the build‐up of thermal stress at others. Furthermore, reconstructed TC wave damage zones suggest that it was rare for more reef area to be damaged by waves than was cooled (only 12% of TCs). Extending the time series back to 1985 (n = 314), we estimate that for the recent period of enhanced TC activity (1995–2010), the annual probability that cooling and thermal stress co‐occur is as high as 31% at some reefs. Quantifying such probabilities across the other tropical regions where both coral reefs and TCs exist is vital for improving our understanding of how reef exposure to rising SSTs may vary, and contributes to a basis for targeting reef conservation.     

The effect of species and colony size on the bleaching response of reef-building corals in the Florida Keys during the 2005 mass bleaching event

Understanding the variation in coral bleaching response is necessary for making accurate predictions of population changes and the future state of reefs in a climate of increasing thermal stress events. Individual coral colonies, belonging to inshore patch reef communities of the Florida Keys, were followed through the 2005 mass bleaching event. Overall, coral bleaching patterns followed an index of accumulated thermal stress more closely than in situ temperature measurements. Eight coral species (Colpophyllia natans, Diploria strigosa, Montastraea cavernosa, M. faveolata, Porites astreoides, P. porites, Siderastrea siderea, and Stephanocoenia intersepta), representing >90% of the coral colonies studied, experienced intense levels of bleaching, but responses varied. Bleaching differed significantly among species: Colpophyllia natans and Diploria strigosa were most susceptible to thermal stress, while Stephanocoenia intersepta was the most tolerant. For colonies of C. natans, M. faveolata, and S. siderea, larger colonies experienced more extensive bleaching than smaller colonies. The inshore patch reef communities of the Florida Keys have historically been dominated by large colonies of Montastraea sp. and Colpophyllia natans. These results provide evidence that colony-level differences can affect bleaching susceptibility in this habitat and suggest that the impact of future thermal stress events may be biased toward larger colonies of dominant reef-building species. Predicted increases in the frequency of mass bleaching and subsequent mortality may therefore result in significant structural shifts of these ecologically important communities.     

Unprecedented Mass Bleaching and Loss of Coral across 12° of Latitude in Western Australia in 2010–11

Background

Globally, coral bleaching has been responsible for a significant decline in both coral cover and diversity over the past two decades. During the summer of 2010–11, anomalous large-scale ocean warming induced unprecedented levels of coral bleaching accompanied by substantial storminess across more than 12° of latitude and 1200 kilometers of coastline in Western Australia (WA).

Methodology/Principal Findings

Extreme La-Niña conditions caused extensive warming of waters and drove considerable storminess and cyclonic activity across WA from October 2010 to May 2011. Satellite-derived sea surface temperature measurements recorded anomalies of up to 5°C above long-term averages. Benthic surveys quantified the extent of bleaching at 10 locations across four regions from tropical to temperate waters. Bleaching was recorded in all locations across regions and ranged between 17% (±5.5) in the temperate Perth region, to 95% (±3.5) in the Exmouth Gulf of the tropical Ningaloo region. Coincident with high levels of bleaching, three cyclones passed in close proximity to study locations around the time of peak temperatures. Follow-up surveys revealed spatial heterogeneity in coral cover change with four of ten locations recording significant loss of coral cover. Relative decreases ranged between 22%–83.9% of total coral cover, with the greatest losses in the Exmouth Gulf.

Conclusions/Significance

The anomalous thermal stress of 2010–11 induced mass bleaching of corals along central and southern WA coral reefs. Significant coral bleaching was observed at multiple locations across the tropical-temperate divide spanning more than 1200 km of coastline. Resultant spatially patchy loss of coral cover under widespread and high levels of bleaching and cyclonic activity, suggests a degree of resilience for WA coral communities. However, the spatial extent of bleaching casts some doubt over hypotheses suggesting that future impacts to coral reefs under forecast warming regimes may in part be mitigated by southern thermal refugia.     

Wave exposure shapes reef community composition and recovery trajectories at a remote coral atoll

In a time of unprecedented ecological change, understanding natural biophysical relationships between reef resilience and physical drivers is of increasing importance. This study evaluates how wave forcing structures coral reef benthic community composition and recovery trajectories after the major 2015/2016 bleaching event in the remote Chagos Archipelago, Indian Ocean. Benthic cover and substrate rugosity were quantified from digital imagery at 23 fore reef sites around a small coral atoll (Salomon) in 2020 and compared to data from a similar survey in 2006 and opportunistic surveys in intermediate years. Cluster analysis and principal component analysis show strong separation of community composition between exposed (modelled wave exposure > 1000 J m⁻³) and sheltered sites (< 1000 J m⁻³) in 2020. This difference is driven by relatively high cover of Porites sp., other massive corals, encrusting corals, soft corals, rubble and dead table corals at sheltered sites versus high cover of pavement and sponges at exposed sites. Total coral cover and rugosity were also higher at sheltered sites. Adding data from previous years shows benthic community shifts from distinct exposure-driven assemblages and high live coral cover in 2006 towards bare pavement, dead Acropora tables and rubble after the 2015/2016 bleaching event. The subsequent recovery trajectories at sheltered and exposed sites are surprisingly parallel and lead communities towards their respective pre-bleaching communities. These results demonstrate that in the absence of human stressors, community patterns on fore reefs are strongly controlled by wave exposure, even during and after widespread coral loss from bleaching events.

     

Reefs from space: Satellite imagery,marine ecology,and ethnography in the Dominican Republic

Coral reef bleaching is an obvious indication that coastal marine ecosystems are being stressed. However, bleached reefs alone are poor indicators because they reflect the final stages of stress. This research project used multidate satellite imagery to look for coral reef changes as indicators of stress. Findings suggest that (1) satellite imagery can be used to identify small-scale changes in coastal marine ecosystems, including coral reefs; (2) remote sensing, marine ecology, and ethnographic data can be integrated to suggest potential causes of coral reef stress; and (3) changes in reef, seagrass, and mangrove ecozones are more closely tied to fishing, tourism, and land use practices than to global warming.     

Drivers of region-wide declines in architectural complexity on Caribbean reefs

Severe declines in the cover of live hard coral on reefs have been reported worldwide, and in the Caribbean region, the architectural complexity of coral reefs has also declined markedly. While the drivers of coral cover loss are relatively well understood, little is known about the drivers of regional-scale declines in architectural complexity. We have used a dataset of 49 time series reporting reef architectural complexity to explore the effect of hurricanes, coral bleaching and fishing on Caribbean-wide annual rates of change in reef complexity. Hurricane impacts greatly influence reef complexity, with the most rapid rates of decline in complexity occurring at sites impacted during their survey period, and with lower rates of loss occurring at unimpacted sites. Reef architectural complexity did not change significantly following mass bleaching events (in a time frame of <5 years) or positive thermal anomalies. Although the rates of change in architectural complexity were similar in and out of marine protected areas (MPAs), significant declines in complexity were observed inside but not outside of MPAs, possibly because reductions in fishing can lead to increased bioerosion by herbivores within MPAs. Our findings suggest that major drivers of coral mortality, such as coral bleaching, do not influence reef architectural complexity in the short term (<5 years). Instead, direct physical impacts and reef bioerosion appear to be important drivers of the widespread loss of architecturally complex reefs in the Caribbean.     

Mass Coral Bleaching in 2010 in the Southern Caribbean

Ocean temperatures are increasing globally and the Caribbean is no exception. An extreme ocean warming event in 2010 placed Tobago''s coral reefs under severe stress resulting in widespread coral bleaching and threatening the livelihoods that rely on them. The bleaching response of four reef building taxa was monitored over a six month period across three major reefs systems in Tobago. By identifying taxa resilient to bleaching we propose to assist local coral reef managers in the decision making process to cope with mass bleaching events. The bleaching signal (length of exposure to high ocean temperatures) varied widely between the Atlantic and Caribbean reefs, but regardless of this variation most taxa bleached. Colpophyllia natans, Montastraea faveolata and Siderastrea siderea were considered the most bleaching vulnerable taxa. Interestingly, reefs with the highest coral cover showed the greatest decline reef building taxa, and conversely, reefs with the lowest coral cover showed the most bleaching but lowest change in coral cover with little algal overgrowth post-bleaching.     

Coral mortality,recovery and reef degradation at Mexico Rocks Patch Reef Complex,Northern Belize,Central America: 1995–1997

The 1995 coral bleaching event in the western Caribbean was the first reported episode that significantly affected the Belize barrier and lagoonal patch reefs. Bleaching was attributed to a 2 mo period of warm water temperatures above 30°C. Near Ambergris Caye, barrier and patch reefs experienced up to 50% bleaching. At Mexico Rocks patch reef complex, the bleaching resulted in changes in reef health, community, and physical structure. Prior to the hyperthermal episode, patch reef surface area consisted of 47% healthy framework coral coverage, 12% secondarily colonized biotic coverage, 35% dead coral surfaces that were degraded by biological activity and physical erosion, and 6%cavities. six months after bleaching, most corals had regained their color, but, owing to coral mortality, areas of surface degradation had increased to an average 49% (p=0.029 based on Kruskal–Wallis analyses). Eighteen months after bleaching, degraded surface areas expanded to 53% (p=0.0366). Although re-coloring indicates rapid recovery for surviving corals, the persistence in dead coral surfaces suggests that reef skeletal structure recovery lags behind that of individual corals. Initial results of framework measurements indicate that bleaching events may result in an ‘imbalance’ in the carbonate production rate of coral reefs and produce mass wasting of the skeletal structure. Remapping of reef skeletal structure should establish quantitative measures for the long-term effects of bleaching on patch reef frameworks.     

When depth is no refuge: cumulative thermal stress increases with depth in Bocas del Toro,Panama

Coral reefs are increasingly affected by high-temperature stress events and associated bleaching. Monitoring and predicting these events have largely utilized sea surface temperature data, due to the convenience of using large-scale remotely sensed satellite measurements. However, coral bleaching has been observed to vary in severity throughout the water column, and variations in coral thermal stress across depths have not yet been well investigated. In this study, in situ water temperature data from 1999 to 2011 from three depths were used to calculate thermal stress on a coral reef in Bahia Almirante, Bocas del Toro, Panama, which was compared to satellite surface temperature data and thermal stress calculations for the same area and time period from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coral Reef Watch Satellite Bleaching Alert system. The results show similar total cumulative annual thermal stress for both the surface and depth-stratified data, but with a striking difference in the distribution of that stress among the depth strata during different high-temperature events, with the greatest thermal stress unusually recorded at the deepest measured depth during the most severe bleaching event in 2005. Temperature records indicate that a strong density-driven temperature inversion may have formed in this location in that year, contributing to the persistence and intensity of bleaching disturbance at depth. These results indicate that depth may not provide a stress refuge from high water temperature events in some situations, and in this case, the water properties at depth appear to have contributed to greater coral bleaching at depth compared to near-surface locations. This case study demonstrates the importance of incorporating depth-stratified temperature monitoring and small-scale oceanographic and hydrologic data for understanding and predicting local reef responses to elevated water temperature events.     

Elevated temperatures and bleaching on a high latitude coral reef: the 1988 Bermuda event

Sea temperatures were normal in Bermuda during 1987, when Bermuda escaped the episodes of coral bleaching which were prevalent throughout the Caribbean region. Survey transecs in 1988 on 4–6 m reefs located on the rim margin and on a lagoonal patch reef revealed bleaching only of zoanthids between May and July. Transect and tow surveys in August and September revealed bleaching of several coral species;Millepora alcicornis on rim reefs was the most extensively affected. The frequency of bleaching in this species,Montastrea annularis and perhapsDiploria labyrinthiformis was significantly higher on outer reefs than on inshore reefs. This bleaching period coincided with the longest period of elevated sea temperatures in Bermuda in 38 years (28.9–30.9°C inshore, >28° offshore). By December, when temperatures had returned to normal, bleaching of seleractinians continued, but bleaching ofM. alcicornis on the outer reefs was greatly reduced. Our observations suggest that corals which normally experience wide temperature ranges are less sensitive to thermal stress, and that high-latitude reef corals are sensitive to elevated temperatures which are within the normal thermal range of corals at lower latitudes.     

Augmented coral reef monitoring using a stationary reef monitoring system

Coral reef monitoring is a reliable tool to assess the effect of climate change as corals are sensitive to increases in water temperatures between 30 °C and 35 °C resulting in bleaching - a whitening process when the corals lose their color and the reefs begin to die. Existing satellite-based monitoring products facilitate coral bleaching monitoring over large spatial scales, but their use in predicting local scale stress that influences the bleaching severity across reefs is limited. In this paper, we describe a Stationary Reef Monitoring System (SRMS) that monitors the time evolution of coral reefs through the photography of nearby coral clusters. Simultaneously, the SRMS measures and records environmental parameters such as temperature, solar irradiance (PAR), and salinity in the waters surrounding the coral colonies. When deployed in the sea, the SRMS detected a 0.1–0.4 °C variability in temperature between the in situ and satellite datasets. The SRMS uses color photography along with quantitative data on environmental parameters to monitor the health of corals and eliminates the need for physical/visual verification of coral health by a diver. By this approach, one can determine the stress thresholds of corals and identify the vulnerable and resilient reefs so as to prioritize conservation efforts.     

Incorporating adaptive responses into future projections of coral bleaching

Climate warming threatens to increase mass coral bleaching events, and several studies have projected the demise of tropical coral reefs this century. However, recent evidence indicates corals may be able to respond to thermal stress though adaptive processes (e.g., genetic adaptation, acclimatization, and symbiont shuffling). How these mechanisms might influence warming‐induced bleaching remains largely unknown. This study compared how different adaptive processes could affect coral bleaching projections. We used the latest bias‐corrected global sea surface temperature (SST) output from the NOAA/GFDL Earth System Model 2 (ESM2M) for the preindustrial period through 2100 to project coral bleaching trajectories. Initial results showed that, in the absence of adaptive processes, application of a preindustrial climatology to the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method overpredicts the present‐day bleaching frequency. This suggests that corals may have already responded adaptively to some warming over the industrial period. We then modified the prediction method so that the bleaching threshold either permanently increased in response to thermal history (e.g., simulating directional genetic selection) or temporarily increased for 2–10 years in response to a bleaching event (e.g., simulating symbiont shuffling). A bleaching threshold that changes relative to the preceding 60 years of thermal history reduced the frequency of mass bleaching events by 20–80% compared with the ‘no adaptive response’ prediction model by 2100, depending on the emissions scenario. When both types of adaptive responses were applied, up to 14% more reef cells avoided high‐frequency bleaching by 2100. However, temporary increases in bleaching thresholds alone only delayed the occurrence of high‐frequency bleaching by ca. 10 years in all but the lowest emissions scenario. Future research should test the rate and limit of different adaptive responses for coral species across latitudes and ocean basins to determine if and how much corals can respond to increasing thermal stress.     

Extreme temperature events will drive coral decline in the Coral Triangle

In light of rapid environmental change, quantifying the contribution of regional‐ and local‐scale drivers of coral persistence is necessary to characterize fully the resilience of coral reef systems. To assess multiscale responses to thermal perturbation of corals in the Coral Triangle (CT), we developed a spatially explicit metacommunity model with coral–algal competition, including seasonal larval dispersal and external spatiotemporal forcing. We tested coral sensitivity in 2,083 reefs across the CT region and surrounding areas under potential future temperature regimes, with and without interannual climate variability, exploring a range of 0.5–2.0°C overall increase in temperature in the system by 2054. We found that among future projections, reef survival probability and mean percent coral cover over time were largely determined by the presence or absence of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) extremes as well as absolute temperature increase. Overall, reefs that experienced SST time series that were filtered to remove interannual variability had approximately double the chance of survival than reefs subjected to unfiltered SST. By the end of the forecast period, the inclusion of thermal anomalies was equivalent to an increase of at least 0.5°C in SST projections without anomalies. Change in percent coral cover varied widely across the region within temperature scenarios, with some reefs experiencing local extinction while others remaining relatively unchanged. Sink strength and current thermal stress threshold were found to be significant drivers of these patterns, highlighting the importance of processes that underlie larval connectivity and bleaching sensitivity in coral networks.     

Thermal refugia against coral bleaching throughout the northern Red Sea

Tropical reefs have been impacted by thermal anomalies caused by global warming that induced coral bleaching and mortality events globally. However, there have only been very few recordings of bleaching within the Red Sea despite covering a latitudinal range of 15° and consequently it has been considered a region that is less sensitive to thermal anomalies. We therefore examined historical patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) and associated anomalies (1982–2012) and compared warming trends with a unique compilation of corresponding coral bleaching records from throughout the region. These data indicated that the northern Red Sea has not experienced mass bleaching despite intensive Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) of >15°C‐weeks. Severe bleaching was restricted to the central and southern Red Sea where DHWs have been more frequent, but far less intense (DHWs <4°C‐weeks). A similar pattern was observed during the 2015–2016 El Niño event during which time corals in the northern Red Sea did not bleach despite high thermal stress (i.e. DHWs >8°C‐weeks), and bleaching was restricted to the central and southern Red Sea despite the lower thermal stress (DHWs < 8°C‐weeks). Heat stress assays carried out in the northern (Hurghada) and central (Thuwal) Red Sea on four key reef‐building species confirmed different regional thermal susceptibility, and that central Red Sea corals are more sensitive to thermal anomalies as compared to those from the north. Together, our data demonstrate that corals in the northern Red Sea have a much higher heat tolerance than their prevailing temperature regime would suggest. In contrast, corals from the central Red Sea are close to their thermal limits, which closely match the maximum annual water temperatures. The northern Red Sea harbours reef‐building corals that live well below their bleaching thresholds and thus we propose that the region represents a thermal refuge of global importance.     

Predicting coral bleaching hotspots: the role of regional variability in thermal stress and potential adaptation rates

Sea surface temperature fields (1870–2100) forced by CO₂-induced climate change under the IPCC SRES A1B CO₂ scenario, from three World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (WCRP CMIP3) models (CCSM3, CSIRO MK 3.5, and GFDL CM 2.1), were used to examine how coral sensitivity to thermal stress and rates of adaption affect global projections of coral-reef bleaching. The focus of this study was two-fold, to: (1) assess how the impact of Degree-Heating-Month (DHM) thermal stress threshold choice affects potential bleaching predictions and (2) examine the effect of hypothetical adaptation rates of corals to rising temperature. DHM values were estimated using a conventional threshold of 1°C and a variability-based threshold of 2σ above the climatological maximum Coral adaptation rates were simulated as a function of historical 100-year exposure to maximum annual SSTs with a dynamic rather than static climatological maximum based on the previous 100 years, for a given reef cell. Within CCSM3 simulations, the 1°C threshold predicted later onset of mild bleaching every 5 years for the fraction of reef grid cells where 1°C > 2σ of the climatology time series of annual SST maxima (1961–1990). Alternatively, DHM values using both thresholds, with CSIRO MK 3.5 and GFDL CM 2.1 SSTs, did not produce drastically different onset timing for bleaching every 5 years. Across models, DHMs based on 1°C thermal stress threshold show the most threatened reefs by 2100 could be in the Central and Western Equatorial Pacific, whereas use of the variability-based threshold for DHMs yields the Coral Triangle and parts of Micronesia and Melanesia as bleaching hotspots. Simulations that allow corals to adapt to increases in maximum SST drastically reduce the rates of bleaching. These findings highlight the importance of considering the thermal stress threshold in DHM estimates as well as potential adaptation models in future coral bleaching projections.     

Geomorphology and community structure of Middle Reef, central Great Barrier Reef, Australia: an inner-shelf turbid zone reef subject to episodic mortality events

Middle Reef is an inshore turbid zone reef located 4 km offshore from Townsville, Queensland, Australia. The reef consists of four current-aligned, interconnected reef patches that have reached sea level and formed reef flats. It is regularly exposed to high turbidity (up to 50 mg l⁻¹) generated by wave-driven sediment resuspension or by episodic flood plumes. Middle Reef has a high mean hard coral cover (>39%), relatively low mean macro-algal cover (<15%) and a coral community comprising at least 81 hard coral species. Cluster analysis differentiated six benthic communities which were mapped onto the geomorphological structure of the reef to reveal a spatially patchy community mosaic that reflects hydrodynamic and sediment redistribution processes. Coral cover data collected annually from windward slope transects since 1993 show that coral cover has increased over the last ~15 years despite a history of episodic mortality events. Although episodic mortality may be interpreted as an indication of marginality, over decadal timescales, Middle Reef has recovered rapidly following mortality events and is clearly a resilient coral reef.