Trade-offs between and within scales: environmental persistence and within-host fitness of avian influenza viruses

Trade-offs between different components of a pathogen''s replication and transmission cycle are thought to be common. A number of studies have identified trade-offs that emerge across scales, reflecting the tension between strategies that optimize within-host proliferation and large-scale population spread. Most of these studies are theoretical in nature, with direct experimental tests of such cross-scale trade-offs still rare. Here, we report an analysis of avian influenza A viruses across scales, focusing on the phenotype of temperature-dependent viral persistence. Taking advantage of a unique dataset that reports both environmental virus decay rates and strain-specific viral kinetics from duck challenge experiments, we show that the temperature-dependent environmental decay rate of a strain does not impact within-host virus load. Hence, for this phenotype, the scales of within-host infection dynamics and between-host environmental persistence do not seem to interact: viral fitness may be optimized on each scale without cross-scale trade-offs. Instead, we confirm the existence of a temperature-dependent persistence trade-off on a single scale, with some strains favouring environmental persistence in water at low temperatures while others reduce sensitivity to increasing temperatures. We show that this temperature-dependent trade-off is a robust phenomenon and does not depend on the details of data analysis. Our findings suggest that viruses might employ different environmental persistence strategies, which facilitates the coexistence of diverse strains in ecological niches. We conclude that a better understanding of the transmission and evolutionary dynamics of influenza A viruses probably requires empirical information regarding both within-host dynamics and environmental traits, integrated within a combined ecological and within-host framework.     

Source-sink dynamics shape the evolution of antibiotic resistance and its pleiotropic fitness cost

Understanding the conditions that favour the evolution and maintenance of antibiotic resistance is the central goal of epidemiology. A crucial feature explaining the adaptation to harsh, or 'sink', environments is the supply of beneficial mutations via migration from a 'source' population. Given that antibiotic resistance is frequently associated with antagonistic pleiotropic fitness costs, increased migration rate is predicted not only to increase the rate of resistance evolution but also to increase the probability of fixation of resistance mutations with minimal fitness costs. Here we report in vitro experiments using the nosocomial pathogenic bacterium Pseudomonas aeruginosa that support these predictions: increasing rate of migration into environments containing antibiotics increased the rate of resistance evolution and decreased the associated costs of resistance. Consistent with previous theoretical work, we found that resistance evolution arose more rapidly in the presence of a single antibiotic than two. Evolution of resistance was also more rapid when bacteria were subjected to sequential exposure with two antibiotics (cycling therapy) compared with simultaneous exposure (bi-therapy). Furthermore, pleiotropic fitness costs of resistance to two antibiotics were higher than for one antibiotic, and were also higher under bi-therapy than cycling therapy, although the cost of resistance depended on the order of the antibiotics through time. These results may be relevant to the clinical setting where immigration is known to be important between chemotherapeutically treated patients, and demonstrate the importance of ecological and evolutionary dynamics in the control of antibiotic resistance.     

Evidence of susceptibility to morbillivirus infection in cetaceans from the United States

Cetacean morbilliviruses (CeMV) are viruses that can cause mass mortalities among various odontocete species. In this study levels of “herd” immunity in cetaceans from the U.S. coast are described from the distribution and prevalence of antibodies against morbilliviruses. Neutralizing antibody titers against dolphin morbillivirus (DMV), porpoise morbillivirus (PMV), phocine distemper (PDV), and canine distemper viruses (CDV) were measured. Positive samples had higher titers against the CeMV than against the other morbilliviruses tested, indicating that although PDV or CDV can be used to investigate exposure their use may result in a higher false negative rate. The results suggest that morbillivirus did not persist in coastal populations of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) after the major outbreaks that occurred in the 1980s and 1990s. Bottlenose dolphins from Beaufort, North Carolina; St. Joseph Bay, Florida; and Cape May, New Jersey had anti‐DMV seroprevalences ranging from between 15% and 33% but those from Charleston, South Carolina and Sarasota Bay, Florida, sampled in recent years were largely negative. These latter groups are therefore now vulnerable to infection and could experience high mortality if exposed to CeMV. Sero‐surveys of this kind are therefore vital for assessing the risk of new and recurring viral outbreaks in coastal cetaceans.     

Model-consistent estimation of the basic reproduction number from the incidence of an emerging infection

We investigate the merit of deriving an estimate of the basic reproduction number early in an outbreak of an (emerging) infection from estimates of the incidence and generation interval only. We compare such estimates of with estimates incorporating additional model assumptions, and determine the circumstances under which the different estimates are consistent. We show that one has to be careful when using observed exponential growth rates to derive an estimate of , and we quantify the discrepancies that arise.      

Evaluating the within-host fitness effects of mutations fixed during virus adaptation to different ecotypes of a new host

The existence of genetic variation for resistance in host populations is assumed to be essential to the spread of an emerging virus. Models predict that the rate of spread slows down with the increasing frequency and higher diversity of resistance alleles in the host population. We have been using the experimental pathosystem Arabidopsis thaliana—tobacco etch potyvirus (TEV) to explore the interplay between genetic variation in host''s susceptibility and virus diversity. We have recently shown that TEV populations evolving in A. thaliana ecotypes that differ in susceptibility to infection gained within-host fitness, virulence and infectivity in a manner compatible with a gene-for-gene model of host–parasite interactions: hard-to-infect ecotypes were infected by generalist viruses, whereas easy-to-infect ecotypes were infected by every virus. We characterized the genomes of the evolved viruses and found cases of host-driven convergent mutations. To gain further insights in the mechanistic basis of this gene-for-gene model, we have generated all viral mutations individually as well as in specific combinations and tested their within-host fitness effects across ecotypes. Most of these mutations were deleterious or neutral in their local ecotype and only a very reduced number had a host-specific beneficial effect. We conclude that most of the mutations fixed during the evolution experiment were so by drift or by selective sweeps along with the selected driver mutation. In addition, we evaluated the ruggedness of the underlying adaptive fitness landscape and found that mutational effects were mostly multiplicative, with few cases of significant epistasis.     

Spatial heterogeneity, social structure and disease dynamics of animal populations

Social groupings, population dynamics and population movements of animals all give rise to spatio-temporal variations in population levels. These variations may be of crucial importance when considering the spread of infectious diseases since infection levels do not increase unless there is a sufficient pool of susceptible individuals. This paper explores the impact of social groupings on the potential for an endemic disease to develop in a spatially explicit model system. Analysis of the model demonstrates that the explicit inclusion of space allows asymmetry between groups to arise when this was not possible in the equivalent spatially homogeneous system. Moreover, differences in movement behaviours for susceptible and infected individuals gives rise to different spatial profiles for the populations. These profiles were not observed in previous work on an epidemic system. The results are discussed in an ecological context with reference to furious and dumb strains of infectious diseases.     

Expression of parasite genetic variation changes over the course of infection: implications of within-host dynamics for the evolution of virulence

How infectious disease agents interact with their host changes during the course of infection and can alter the expression of disease-related traits. Yet by measuring parasite life-history traits at one or few moments during infection, studies have overlooked the impact of variable parasite growth trajectories on disease evolution. Here we show that infection-age-specific estimates of host and parasite fitness components can reveal new insight into the evolution of parasites. We do so by characterizing the within-host dynamics over an entire infection period for five genotypes of the castrating bacterial parasite Pasteuria ramosa infecting the crustacean Daphnia magna. Our results reveal that genetic variation for parasite-induced gigantism, host castration and parasite spore loads increases with the age of infection. Driving these patterns appears to be variation in how well the parasite maintains control of host reproduction late in the infection process. We discuss the evolutionary consequences of this finding with regard to natural selection acting on different ages of infection and the mechanism underlying the maintenance of castration efficiency. Our results highlight how elucidating within-host dynamics can shed light on the selective forces that shape infection strategies and the evolution of virulence.     

Sexually transmitted infection and the evolution of serial monogamy

The selective forces shaping mating systems have long been of interest to biologists. One particular selective pressure that has received comparatively little attention is sexually transmitted infections (STIs). While it has been hypothesized that STIs could drive the evolutionary emergence of monogamy, there is little theoretical support. Here we use an evolutionary invasion analysis to determine what aspects of pathogen virulence and transmission are necessary for serial monogamy to evolve in a promiscuous population. We derive a biologically intuitive invasion condition in terms of population-specific quantities. From this condition, we obtain two main results. First, when pathogen virulence causes mortality rather than sterility, monogamy is more likely to evolve. Second, we find that at intermediate pathogen transmission rates, monogamy is the most selectively advantageous, whereas at high- and low-transmission rates, monogamy is generally selected against. As a result, it is possible for a pathogen to be highly virulent, yet for promiscuity to persist.     

Multiple sources and routes of information transmission: Implications for epidemic dynamics

In a recent paper [20], we proposed and analyzed a compartmental ODE-based model describing the dynamics of an infectious disease where the presence of the pathogen also triggers the diffusion of information about the disease. In this paper, we extend this previous work by presenting results based on pairwise and simulation models that are better suited for capturing the population contact structure at a local level. We use the pairwise model to examine the potential of different information generating mechanisms and routes of information transmission to stop disease spread or to minimize the impact of an epidemic. The individual-based simulation is used to better differentiate between the networks of disease and information transmission and to investigate the impact of different basic network topologies and network overlap on epidemic dynamics. The paper concludes with an individual-based semi-analytic calculation of R₀ at the non-trivial disease free equilibrium.     

Evolution of polyembryony: Consequences to the fitness of mother and offspring

Polyembryony, referring here to situations where a nucellar embryo is formed along with the zygotic embryo, has different consequences for the fitness of the maternal parent and offspring. We have developed genetic and inclusive fitness models to derive the conditions that permit the evolution of polyembryony under maternal and offspring control. We have also derived expressions for the optimal allocation (evolutionarily stable strategy, ESS) of resources between zygotic and nucellar embryos. It is seen that (i) Polyembryony can evolve more easily under maternal control than under that of either the offspring or the ‘selfish’ endosperm. Under maternal regulation, evolution of polyembryony can occur for any clutch size. Under offspring control polyembryony is more likely to evolve for high clutch sizes, and is unlikely for low clutch sizes (<3). This conflict between mother and offspring decreases with increase in clutch size and favours the evolution of polyembryony at high clutch sizes, (ii) Polyembryony can evolve for values of “x” (the power of the function relating fitness to seed resource) greater than 0.5758; the possibility of its occurrence increases with “x”, indicating that a more efficient conversion of resource into fitness favours polyembryony. (iii) Under both maternal parent and offspring control, the evolution of polyembryony becomes increasingly unlikely as the level of inbreeding increases, (iv) The proportion of resources allocated to the nucellar embryo at ESS is always higher than that which maximizes the rate of spread of the allele against a non-polyembryonic allele.     

A new amphipathy scale: I. Determination of the scale from molecular dynamics data

Two new amphipathy scales elaborated from molecular dynamics data are presented. Their applications contribute for the identification of the hydrophobic or hydrophilic regions in proteins solely from the primary structure. The new amphipathy coefficients (AC) reflect the side chain/solvent molecules configurational energies. A polar (water) and an apolar solvent, CCl₄, were used resulting in the two AC_water and AC_CCl4 scales. These solvents were chosen to simulate the aqueous phases and the transmembrane ambients of cellular membranes where the membrane proteins act. The new amphipathy scales were compared with some previous scales determined by different methods, which were also compared between them, indicating more than 90% of the correlation coefficients are less than 0.9: the scales are strictly dependent on the methodologies used in their determination. The AC_CCl4 scale is related with the size of side chain amino acids while AC_water is related with the hydrophobicity of side chain amino acids. The quality of the scales was confirmed by an example of application where AC_water was able to identify correctly the transmembrane, hydrophobic regions of a membrane protein. These results also indicate that water is an important factor responsible for the tertiary structure of membrane proteins.