Extinction vulnerability of coral reef fishes

With rapidly increasing rates of contemporary extinction, predicting extinction vulnerability and identifying how multiple stressors drive non-random species loss have become key challenges in ecology. These assessments are crucial for avoiding the loss of key functional groups that sustain ecosystem processes and services. We developed a novel predictive framework of species extinction vulnerability and applied it to coral reef fishes. Although relatively few coral reef fishes are at risk of global extinction from climate disturbances, a negative convex relationship between fish species locally vulnerable to climate change vs. fisheries exploitation indicates that the entire community is vulnerable on the many reefs where both stressors co-occur. Fishes involved in maintaining key ecosystem functions are more at risk from fishing than climate disturbances. This finding is encouraging as local and regional commitment to fisheries management action can maintain reef ecosystem functions pending progress towards the more complex global problem of stabilizing the climate.     

Corals in high diversity reefs resist human impact

Coral reefs are amongst the most diverse ecosystems in the biosphere. However, they also represent one of the most threatened marine systems. Apart from global change, especially fishing and tourism affect coral reefs either with mechanical damage or with increase of pollution and sedimentation. Recently, the increase of disturbances has induced extensive changes in community structure and composition of coral reefs. Well-balanced and rich communities can better resist disturbances and show a more rapid recovery, compared to less biodiverse systems.This study assesses the status of coral reefs subjected to several anthropogenic pressures, using a modified version of Coral Condition Index (CCI) that takes into account all Acropora and Pocillopora growth forms and considers a further category of coral damage: the presence of disease. The investigations were carried out at Bangka Island (North Sulawesi, Indonesia), where some of the most flourishing reefs in the country are present. The CCI takes into account the extent of different damages on coral colonies, particularly of the genera Acropora and Pocillopora, being among the most widespread bioconstructors of local coral reefs and very sensitive to anthropogenic disturbances. The aim of the present work is to test whether the CCI is a reliable index in different coral reefs, and to evaluate if highly biodiverse reefs show a better resistance to several human stressors.Data showed high values of CCI (0.9 on average) at all the investigated sites and at the two depths (3 and 9 m) for each site, with the most abundant category represented by “healthy coral colonies”. These data indicate a reasonably good health status of the reef in the study area (CCI > 0.8). The presence of different types of human pressure in the study area was evaluated through the use of metric proxies. Results do not seem to show any significant influence of such human activities on reef coral status, as shown by the low values of correlation between CCI values and the distances of the study sites from the three main sources of stress (Villages, Resorts and Other). Moreover, the present data seem to confirm that highly biodiverse and well-structured assemblages can resist disturbances more efficiently and that human pressure in the study area is sustainable. Compared to fishing activities, the impact of Scuba diving on coral reef is lower, resulting more sustainable and ecologically non-destructive.CCI summarizes many kinds of information and can be applicable in various areas with different pressures. It is a useful tool that might help to assist and guide management decisions towards alternative development models.     

Hurricanes and coral reefs: The intermediate disturbance hypothesis revisited

A review of research on the effects of hurricanes on coral reefs suggests that the intermediate disturbance hypothesis may be applicable to shallow reef zones dominated by branching or foliaceous coral species that are especially susceptible to mechanical damage from storms. Diversity (H') increases because of an increase in evenness following destruction or removal of the species that was monopolizing the space. The intermediate disturbance hypothesis as presented by Connell focuses on changes in number of species, but should be expanded to include diversity (H') and evenness. It should also be modified to incorporate changes in living cover and the time elapsed since disturbances of varying intensities. This hypothesis predicts that when cover is high, diversity will be low. However, research on coral reefs does not consistently demonstrate an inverse correlation of coral diversity, and coral cover. An increase in cover and decrease in diversity with depth would also be expected because deeper reef zones generally experience less disturbance. However, higher diversity (both H' and species richness) is often associated with deeper zones. The effects of hurricanes on coral reefs will depend on the temporal and spatial scales under consideration, the life history characteristics and morphology of the dominant species, the depth of the reef zone, the ecological history of the site, and the influence of any additional natural or human stresses.     

Interactive effects of three pervasive marine stressors in a post-disturbance coral reef

Ecosystems are commonly affected by natural, episodic disturbances that can abruptly and drastically alter communities. Although it has been shown that resilient ecosystems can eventually recover to pre-disturbed states, the extent to which communities in early stages of recovery could be affected by multiple anthropogenic stressors is poorly understood. Pervasive and rising anthropogenic stressors in coastal marine systems that could interactively affect the recovery of these systems following natural disturbances include high sedimentation, nutrient enrichment, and overfishing. Using a 6-month field experiment, we examined the effects of all combinations of these three stressors on key functional groups in the benthic community growing on simulated, post-disturbance reef patches within a system recovering from large-scale natural disturbances (corallivorous seastar outbreak and cyclone). Our study revealed that sedimentation, nutrient enrichment, and overfishing (simulated using exclusion cages) interactively affected coral survival and algal growth, with taxon-specific effects at multiple scales. First, our treatments affected corals and algae differently, with sedimentation being more detrimental to macroalgal growth but less detrimental to coral (Porites rus) survival in caged plots, driving significant interactions between sedimentation and caging for both taxa. We also observed distinct responses between coral species and between algal functional groups, with the most extensive responses from algal turf biomass, for which sedimentation suppressed the synergistic (positive) combined effect of nutrient enrichment and caging. Our findings suggest that different combinations of ubiquitous anthropogenic stressors, related to either sea- or land-based activities, interactively influence community recovery from disturbance and may alter species compositions in the resulting community. Our findings further suggest that anthropogenic stressors could promote further degradation of coral reefs following natural disturbances by inhibiting recovery to coral-dominated states that provide vital ecosystem services to coastal populations worldwide.     

Bommies away! Logistics and early effects of repositioning 400 tonnes of displaced coral colonies following cyclone impacts on the Great Barrier Reef

For over 40 years, management of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP) in Australia has focused on limiting human‐use impacts to facilitate natural resilience and recovery. Compounding acute disturbances and chronic stressors have resulted in degradation of coral reef habitats in many areas of the Marine Park. Given current trends and predictions of escalating climate‐driven disturbances, it is increasingly evident that effective management of the GBRMP requires adaptive and novel approaches to protect and restore coral reef health. Here, we provide an overview of the logistical requirements and early‐stage ecological benefits of repositioning 400 tonnes of moderately sized (1–3 m diameter) Porites spp. coral colonies (bommies) that were displaced by cyclone‐generated swells that impacted reefs in the Whitsunday Islands during March 2017. An ecological survey conducted 16 months after the bommie repositioning revealed that several genera of hard coral had settled onto the bommies and that a range of reef fish species were associating with the restored habitat. Early findings suggest that the repositioning of the displaced bommies has assisted in restoring reef habitat structure and settlement habitat for juvenile corals, while improving natural aesthetics, vessel access and tourist experiences at Manta Ray Bay.     

Global human footprint on the linkage between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in reef fishes

Difficulties in scaling up theoretical and experimental results have raised controversy over the consequences of biodiversity loss for the functioning of natural ecosystems. Using a global survey of reef fish assemblages, we show that in contrast to previous theoretical and experimental studies, ecosystem functioning (as measured by standing biomass) scales in a non-saturating manner with biodiversity (as measured by species and functional richness) in this ecosystem. Our field study also shows a significant and negative interaction between human population density and biodiversity on ecosystem functioning (i.e., for the same human density there were larger reductions in standing biomass at more diverse reefs). Human effects were found to be related to fishing, coastal development, and land use stressors, and currently affect over 75% of the world's coral reefs. Our results indicate that the consequences of biodiversity loss in coral reefs have been considerably underestimated based on existing knowledge and that reef fish assemblages, particularly the most diverse, are greatly vulnerable to the expansion and intensity of anthropogenic stressors in coastal areas.     

Caribbean mesophotic coral ecosystems are unlikely climate change refugia

Deeper coral reefs experience reduced temperatures and light and are often shielded from localized anthropogenic stressors such as pollution and fishing. The deep reef refugia hypothesis posits that light‐dependent stony coral species at deeper depths are buffered from thermal stress and will avoid bleaching‐related mass mortalities caused by increasing sea surface temperatures under climate change. This hypothesis has not been tested because data collection on deeper coral reefs is difficult. Here we show that deeper (mesophotic) reefs, 30–75 m depth, in the Caribbean are not refugia because they have lower bleaching threshold temperatures than shallow reefs. Over two thermal stress events, mesophotic reef bleaching was driven by a bleaching threshold that declines 0.26 °C every +10 m depth. Thus, the main premise of the deep reef refugia hypothesis that cooler environments are protective is incorrect; any increase in temperatures above the local mean warmest conditions can lead to thermal stress and bleaching. Thus, relatively cooler temperatures can no longer be considered a de facto refugium for corals and it is likely that many deeper coral reefs are as vulnerable to climate change as shallow water reefs.     

Operationalizing resilience for adaptive coral reef management under global environmental change

Cumulative pressures from global climate and ocean change combined with multiple regional and local‐scale stressors pose fundamental challenges to coral reef managers worldwide. Understanding how cumulative stressors affect coral reef vulnerability is critical for successful reef conservation now and in the future. In this review, we present the case that strategically managing for increased ecological resilience (capacity for stress resistance and recovery) can reduce coral reef vulnerability (risk of net decline) up to a point. Specifically, we propose an operational framework for identifying effective management levers to enhance resilience and support management decisions that reduce reef vulnerability. Building on a system understanding of biological and ecological processes that drive resilience of coral reefs in different environmental and socio‐economic settings, we present an Adaptive Resilience‐Based management (ARBM) framework and suggest a set of guidelines for how and where resilience can be enhanced via management interventions. We argue that press‐type stressors (pollution, sedimentation, overfishing, ocean warming and acidification) are key threats to coral reef resilience by affecting processes underpinning resistance and recovery, while pulse‐type (acute) stressors (e.g. storms, bleaching events, crown‐of‐thorns starfish outbreaks) increase the demand for resilience. We apply the framework to a set of example problems for Caribbean and Indo‐Pacific reefs. A combined strategy of active risk reduction and resilience support is needed, informed by key management objectives, knowledge of reef ecosystem processes and consideration of environmental and social drivers. As climate change and ocean acidification erode the resilience and increase the vulnerability of coral reefs globally, successful adaptive management of coral reefs will become increasingly difficult. Given limited resources, on‐the‐ground solutions are likely to focus increasingly on actions that support resilience at finer spatial scales, and that are tightly linked to ecosystem goods and services.     

Delayed coral recovery in a warming ocean

Climate change threatens coral reefs across the world. Intense bleaching has caused dramatic coral mortality in many tropical regions in recent decades, but less obvious chronic effects of temperature and other stressors can be equally threatening to the long‐term persistence of diverse coral‐dominated reef systems. Coral reefs persist if coral recovery rates equal or exceed average rates of mortality. While mortality from acute destructive events is often obvious and easy to measure, estimating recovery rates and investigating the factors that influence them requires long‐term commitment. Coastal development is increasing in many regions, and sea surface temperatures are also rising. The resulting chronic stresses have predictable, adverse effects on coral recovery, but the lack of consistent long‐term data sets has prevented measurement of how much coral recovery rates are actually changing. Using long‐term monitoring data from 47 reefs spread over 10 degrees of latitude on Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR), we used a modified Gompertz equation to estimate coral recovery rates following disturbance. We compared coral recovery rates in two periods: 7 years before and 7 years after an acute and widespread heat stress event on the GBR in 2002. From 2003 to 2009, there were few acute disturbances in the region, allowing us to attribute the observed shortfall in coral recovery rates to residual effects of acute heat stress plus other chronic stressors. Compared with the period before 2002, the recovery of fast‐growing Acroporidae and of “Other” slower growing hard corals slowed after 2002, doubling the time taken for modest levels of recovery. If this persists, recovery times will be increasing at a time when acute disturbances are predicted to become more frequent and intense. Our study supports the need for management actions to protect reefs from locally generated stresses, as well as urgent global action to mitigate climate change.     

The non-linear relationship between body size and function in parrotfishes

Parrotfishes are a group of herbivores that play an important functional role in structuring benthic communities on coral reefs. Increasingly, these fish are being targeted by fishermen, and resultant declines in biomass and abundance may have severe consequences for the dynamics and regeneration of coral reefs. However, the impact of overfishing extends beyond declining fish stocks. It can also lead to demographic changes within species populations where mean body size is reduced. The effect of reduced mean body size on population dynamics is well described in literature but virtually no information exists on how this may influence important ecological functions. The study investigated how one important function, scraping (i.e., the capacity to remove algae and open up bare substratum for coral larval settlement), by three common species of parrotfishes (Scarus niger, Chlorurus sordidus, and Chlorurus strongylocephalus) on coral reefs at Zanzibar (Tanzania) was influenced by the size of individual fishes. There was a non-linear relationship between body size and scraping function for all species examined, and impact through scraping was also found to increase markedly when fish reached a size of 15–20 cm. Thus, coral reefs which have a high abundance and biomass of parrotfish may nonetheless be functionally impaired if dominated by small-sized individuals. Reductions in mean body size within parrotfish populations could, therefore, have functional impacts on coral reefs that previously have been overlooked.     

Ecosystem‐based management of coral reefs under climate change

Coral reefs provide food and livelihoods for hundreds of millions of people as well as harbour some of the highest regions of biodiversity in the ocean. However, overexploitation, land‐use change and other local anthropogenic threats to coral reefs have left many degraded. Additionally, coral reefs are faced with the dual emerging threats of ocean warming and acidification due to rising CO₂ emissions, with dire predictions that they will not survive the century. This review evaluates the impacts of climate change on coral reef organisms, communities and ecosystems, focusing on the interactions between climate change factors and local anthropogenic stressors. It then explores the shortcomings of existing management and the move towards ecosystem‐based management and resilience thinking, before highlighting the need for climate change‐ready marine protected areas (MPAs), reduction in local anthropogenic stressors, novel approaches such as human‐assisted evolution and the importance of sustainable socialecological systems. It concludes that designation of climate change‐ready MPAs, integrated with other management strategies involving stakeholders and participation at multiple scales such as marine spatial planning, will be required to maximise coral reef resilience under climate change. However, efforts to reduce carbon emissions are critical if the long‐term efficacy of local management actions is to be maintained and coral reefs are to survive.     

Spatial Resilience of Coral Reefs

There have been several earlier studies that addressed the influence of natural disturbance regimes on coral reefs. Humans alter natural disturbance regimes, introduce new stressors, and modify background conditions of reefs. We focus on how coral reef ecosystems relate to disturbance in an increasingly human-dominated environment. The concept of ecosystem resilience—that is, the capacity of complex systems with multiple stable states to absorb disturbance, reorganize, and adapt to change—is central in this context. Instead of focusing on the recovery of certain species and populations within disturbed sites of individual reefs, we address spatial resilience—that is, the dynamic capacity of a reef matrix to reorganize and maintain ecosystem function following disturbance. The interplay between disturbance and ecosystem resilience is highlighted. We begin the identification of spatial sources of resilience in dynamic seascapes and exemplify and discuss the relation between “ecological memory” (biological legacies, mobile link species, and support areas) and functional diversity for seascape resilience. Managing for resilience in dynamic seascapes not only enhances the likelihood of conserving coral reefs, it also provides insurance to society by sustaining essential ecosystem services. Received 25 February 2000; accepted 31 January 2001.     

Red Sea corals under Artificial Light Pollution at Night (ALAN) undergo oxidative stress and photosynthetic impairment

Coral reefs represent the most diverse marine ecosystem on the planet, yet they are undergoing an unprecedented decline due to a combination of increasing global and local stressors. Despite the wealth of research investigating these stressors, Artificial Light Pollution at Night (ALAN) or “ecological light pollution” represents an emerging threat that has received little attention in the context of coral reefs, despite the potential of disrupting the chronobiology, physiology, behavior, and other biological processes of coral reef organisms. Scleractinian corals, the framework builders of coral reefs, depend on lunar illumination cues to synchronize their biological rhythms such as behavior, reproduction and physiology. While, light pollution (POL) may mask and lead de‐synchronization of these biological rhythms process. To reveal if ALAN impacts coral physiology, we have studied two coral species, Acropora eurystoma and Pocillopora damicornis, from the Gulf of Eilat/Aqaba, Red Sea, which is undergoing urban development that has led to severe POL at night. Our two experimental design data revealed that corals exposed to ALAN face an oxidative stress condition, show lower photosynthesis performances measured by electron transport rate (ETR), as well as changes in chlorophyll and algae density parameters. Testing different lights such as Blue LED and White LED spectrum showed more extreme impact in comparison to Yellow LEDs on coral physiology. The finding of this work sheds light on the emerging threat of POL and the impacts on the biology and ecology of Scleractinian corals, and will help to formulate specific management implementations to mitigate its potentially harmful impacts.     

High macroalgal cover and low coral recruitment undermines the potential resilience of the world's southernmost coral reef assemblages

Coral reefs are under increasing pressure from anthropogenic and climate-induced stressors. The ability of reefs to reassemble and regenerate after disturbances (i.e., resilience) is largely dependent on the capacity of herbivores to prevent macroalgal expansion, and the replenishment of coral populations through larval recruitment. Currently there is a paucity of this information for higher latitude, subtropical reefs. To assess the potential resilience of the benthic reef assemblages of Lord Howe Island (31°32'S, 159°04'E), the worlds' southernmost coral reef, we quantified the benthic composition, densities of juvenile corals (as a proxy for coral recruitment), and herbivorous fish communities. Despite some variation among habitats and sites, benthic communities were dominated by live scleractinian corals (mean cover 37.4%) and fleshy macroalgae (20.9%). Live coral cover was higher than in most other subtropical reefs and directly comparable to lower latitude tropical reefs. Juvenile coral densities (0.8 ind.m(-2)), however, were 5-200 times lower than those reported for tropical reefs. Overall, macroalgal cover was negatively related to the cover of live coral and the density of juvenile corals, but displayed no relationship with herbivorous fish biomass. The biomass of herbivorous fishes was relatively low (204 kg.ha(-1)), and in marked contrast to tropical reefs was dominated by macroalgal browsing species (84.1%) with relatively few grazing species. Despite their extremely low biomass, grazing fishes were positively related to both the density of juvenile corals and the cover of bare substrata, suggesting that they may enhance the recruitment of corals through the provision of suitable settlement sites. Although Lord Howe Islands' reefs are currently coral-dominated, the high macroalgal cover, coupled with limited coral recruitment and low coral growth rates suggest these reefs may be extremely susceptible to future disturbances.     

The roles of dimensionality, canopies and complexity in ecosystem monitoring

Canopies are common among autotrophs, increasing their access to light and thereby increasing competitive abilities. If viewed from above canopies may conceal objects beneath them creating a 'canopy effect'. Due to complexities in collecting 3-dimensional data, most ecosystem monitoring programmes reduce dimensionality when sampling, resorting to planar views. The resultant 'canopy effects' may bias data interpretation, particularly following disturbances. Canopy effects are especially relevant on coral reefs where coral cover is often used to evaluate and communicate ecosystem health. We show that canopies hide benthic components including massive corals and algal turfs, and as planar views are almost ubiquitously used to monitor disturbances, the loss of vulnerable canopy-forming corals may bias findings by presenting pre-existing benthic components as an altered system. Our reliance on planar views in monitoring ecosystems, especially coral cover on reefs, needs to be reassessed if we are to better understand the ecological consequences of ever more frequent disturbances.     

Species-Specific Responses of Corals to Bleaching Events on Anthropogenically Turbid Reefs on Okinawa Island,Japan, over a 15-year Period (1995–2009)

Coral bleaching, triggered by elevated sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) has caused a decline in coral cover and changes in the abundances of corals on reefs worldwide. Coral decline can be exacerbated by the effects of local stressors like turbidity, yet some reefs with a natural history of turbidity can support healthy and resilient coral communities. However, little is known about responses of coral communities to bleaching events on anthropogenically turbid reefs as a result of recent (post World War II) terrestrial runoff. Analysis of region-scale coral cover and species abundance at 17–20 sites on the turbid reefs of Okinawa Island (total of 79 species, 30 genera, and 13 families) from 1995 to 2009 indicates that coral cover decreased drastically, from 24.4% to 7.5% (1.1%/year), subsequent to bleaching events in 1998 and 2001. This dramatic decrease in coral cover corresponded to the demise of Acropora species (e.g., A. digitifera) by 2009, when Acropora had mostly disappeared from turbid reefs on Okinawa Island. In contrast, Merulinidae species (e.g., Dipsastraea pallida/speciosa/favus) and Porites species (e.g., P. lutea/australiensis), which are characterized by tolerance to thermal stress, survived on turbid reefs of Okinawa Island throughout the period. Our results suggest that high turbidity, influenced by recent terrestrial runoff, could have caused a reduction in resilience of Acropora species to severe thermal stress events, because the corals could not have adapted to a relatively recent decline in water quality. The coral reef ecosystems of Okinawa Island will be severely impoverished if Acropora species fail to recover.     

Mesophotic depths as refuge areas for fishery-targeted species on coral reefs

Coral reefs are subjected to unprecedented levels of disturbance with population growth and climate change combining to reduce standing coral cover and stocks of reef fishes. Most of the damage is concentrated in shallow waters (<30 m deep) where humans can comfortably operate and where physical disturbances are most disruptive to marine organisms. Yet coral reefs can extend to depths exceeding 100 m, potentially offering refuge from the threats facing shallower reefs. We deployed baited remote underwater stereo-video systems (stereo-BRUVs) at depths of 10–90 m around the southern Mariana Islands to investigate whether fish species targeted by fishing in the shallows may be accruing benefits from being at depth. We show that biomass, abundance and species richness of fishery-targeted species increased from shallow reef areas to a depth of 60 m, whereas at greater depths, a lack of live coral habitat corresponded to lower numbers of fish. The majority of targeted species were found to have distributions that ranged from shallow depths (10 m) to depths of at least 70 m, emphasising that habitat, not depth, is the limiting factor in their vertical distribution. While the gradient of abundance and biomass versus depth was steepest for predatory species, the first species usually targeted by fishing, we also found that fishery-targeted herbivores prevailed in similar biomass and species richness to 60 m. Compared to shallow marine protected areas, there was clearly greater biomass of fishery-targeted species accrued in mesophotic depths. Particularly some species typically harvested by depth-limited fishing methods (e.g., spearfishing), such as the endangered humphead wrasse Cheilinus undulatus, were found in greater abundance on deeper reefs. We conclude that mesophotic depths provide essential fish habitat and refuge for fishery-targeted species, representing crucial zones for fishery management and research into the resilience of disturbed coral reef ecosystems.     

Marine reserves help coastal ecosystems cope with extreme weather

Natural ecosystems have experienced widespread degradation due to human activities. Consequently, enhancing resilience has become a primary objective for conservation. Nature reserves are a favored management tool, but we need clearer empirical tests of whether they can impart resilience. Catastrophic flooding in early 2011 impacted coastal ecosystems across eastern Australia. We demonstrate that marine reserves enhanced the capacity of coral reefs to withstand flood impacts. Reserve reefs resisted the impact of perturbation, whilst fished reefs did not. Changes on fished reefs were correlated with the magnitude of flood impact, whereas variation on reserve reefs was related to ecological variables. Herbivory and coral recruitment are critical ecological processes that underpin reef resilience, and were greater in reserves and further enhanced on reserve reefs near mangroves. The capacity of reserves to mitigate external disturbances and promote ecological resilience will be critical to resisting an increased frequency of climate‐related disturbance.     

Habitat loss, resource specialization, and extinction on coral reefs

Coral reefs worldwide are being degraded because of global warming (coral bleaching) and coastal development (sedimentation and eutrophication). Predicting the risk of species extinctions from this type of habitat degradation is one of the most challenging and urgent tasks facing ecologists. Habitat specialists are thought to be more prone to extinction than generalists; however, specialists may be more susceptible to extinction because (1) they are specialists per se, (2) they are less abundant than generalists, or (3) both. Here, I show that declines in coral abundance lead to corresponding declines in the abundance of coral‐dwelling fishes, but with proportionally greater losses to specialists than generalists. In addition, specialists have smaller initial population sizes than generalists. Consequently, specialists face a dual risk of extinction because their already small populations decline more rapidly than those of generalists. Corresponding with this increased extinction risk, I describe the local extinction of one specialist species and the near‐global extinction of another species. I conclude that habitat specialists will be the first species lost from coral reefs because their small populations suffer the most from human‐induced disturbances.     

Ocean acidification and warming will lower coral reef resilience

Ocean warming and acidification from increasing levels of atmospheric CO₂ represent major global threats to coral reefs, and are in many regions exacerbated by local‐scale disturbances such as overfishing and nutrient enrichment. Our understanding of global threats and local‐scale disturbances on reefs is growing, but their relative contribution to reef resilience and vulnerability in the future is unclear. Here, we analyse quantitatively how different combinations of CO₂ and fishing pressure on herbivores will affect the ecological resilience of a simplified benthic reef community, as defined by its capacity to maintain and recover to coral‐dominated states. We use a dynamic community model integrated with the growth and mortality responses for branching corals (Acropora) and fleshy macroalgae (Lobophora). We operationalize the resilience framework by parameterizing the response function for coral growth (calcification) by ocean acidification and warming, coral bleaching and mortality by warming, macroalgal mortality by herbivore grazing and macroalgal growth via nutrient loading. The model was run for changes in sea surface temperature and water chemistry predicted by the rise in atmospheric CO₂ projected from the IPCC's fossil‐fuel intensive A1FI scenario during this century. Results demonstrated that severe acidification and warming alone can lower reef resilience (via impairment of coral growth and increased coral mortality) even under high grazing intensity and low nutrients. Further, the threshold at which herbivore overfishing (reduced grazing) leads to a coral–algal phase shift was lowered by acidification and warming. These analyses support two important conclusions: Firstly, reefs already subjected to herbivore overfishing and nutrification are likely to be more vulnerable to increasing CO₂. Secondly, under CO₂ regimes above 450–500 ppm, management of local‐scale disturbances will become critical to keeping reefs within an Acropora‐rich domain.