Evaluating fossil calibrations for dating phylogenies in light of rates of molecular evolution: a comparison of three approaches

Evolutionary and biogeographic studies increasingly rely on calibrated molecular clocks to date key events. Although there has been significant recent progress in development of the techniques used for molecular dating, many issues remain. In particular, controversies abound over the appropriate use and placement of fossils for calibrating molecular clocks. Several methods have been proposed for evaluating candidate fossils; however, few studies have compared the results obtained by different approaches. Moreover, no previous study has incorporated the effects of nucleotide saturation from different data types in the evaluation of candidate fossils. In order to address these issues, we compared three approaches for evaluating fossil calibrations: the single-fossil cross-validation method of Near, Meylan, and Shaffer (2005. Assessing concordance of fossil calibration points in molecular clock studies: an example using turtles. Am. Nat. 165:137-146), the empirical fossil coverage method of Marshall (2008. A simple method for bracketing absolute divergence times on molecular phylogenies using multiple fossil calibration points. Am. Nat. 171:726-742), and the Bayesian multicalibration method of Sanders and Lee (2007. Evaluating molecular clock calibrations using Bayesian analyses with soft and hard bounds. Biol. Lett. 3:275-279) and explicitly incorporate the effects of data type (nuclear vs. mitochondrial DNA) for identifying the most reliable or congruent fossil calibrations. We used advanced (Caenophidian) snakes as a case study; however, our results are applicable to any taxonomic group with multiple candidate fossils, provided appropriate taxon sampling and sufficient molecular sequence data are available. We found that data type strongly influenced which fossil calibrations were identified as outliers, regardless of which method was used. Despite the use of complex partitioned models of sequence evolution and multiple calibrations throughout the tree, saturation severely compressed basal branch lengths obtained from mitochondrial DNA compared with nuclear DNA. The effects of mitochondrial saturation were not ameliorated by analyzing a combined nuclear and mitochondrial data set. Although removing the third codon positions from the mitochondrial coding regions did not ameliorate saturation effects in the single-fossil cross-validations, it did in the Bayesian multicalibration analyses. Saturation significantly influenced the fossils that were selected as most reliable for all three methods evaluated. Our findings highlight the need to critically evaluate the fossils selected by data with different rates of nucleotide substitution and how data with different evolutionary rates affect the results of each method for evaluating fossils. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that the advantages of using multiple independent fossil calibrations significantly outweigh any disadvantages.     

Fossil calibrations and molecular divergence time estimates in centrarchid fishes (Teleostei: Centrarchidae)

Molecular clock methods allow biologists to estimate divergence times, which in turn play an important role in comparative studies of many evolutionary processes. It is well known that molecular age estimates can be biased by heterogeneity in rates of molecular evolution, but less attention has been paid to the issue of potentially erroneous fossil calibrations. In this study we estimate the timing of diversification in Centrarchidae, an endemic major lineage of the diverse North American freshwater fish fauna, through a new approach to fossil calibration and molecular evolutionary model selection. Given a completely resolved multi-gene molecular phylogeny and a set of multiple fossil-inferred age estimates, we tested for potentially erroneous fossil calibrations using a recently developed fossil cross-validation. We also used fossil information to guide the selection of the optimal molecular evolutionary model with a new fossil jackknife method in a fossil-based model cross-validation. The centrarchid phylogeny resulted from a mixed-model Bayesian strategy that included 14 separate data partitions sampled from three mtDNA and four nuclear genes. Ten of the 31 interspecific nodes in the centrarchid phylogeny were assigned a minimal age estimate from the centrarchid fossil record. Our analyses identified four fossil dates that were inconsistent with the other fossils, and we removed them from the molecular dating analysis. Using fossil-based model cross-validation to determine the optimal smoothing value in penalized likelihood analysis, and six mutually consistent fossil calibrations, the age of the most recent common ancestor of Centrarchidae was 33.59 million years ago (mya). Penalized likelihood analyses of individual data partitions all converged on a very similar age estimate for this node, indicating that rate heterogeneity among data partitions is not confounding our analyses. These results place the origin of the centrarchid radiation at a time of major faunal turnover as the fossil record indicates that the most diverse lineages of the North American freshwater fish fauna originated at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary, approximately 34 mya. This time coincided with major global climate change from warm to cool temperatures and a signature of elevated lineage extinction and origination in the fossil record across the tree of life. Our analyses demonstrate the utility of fossil cross-validation to critically assess individual fossil calibration points, providing the ability to discriminate between consistent and inconsistent fossil age estimates that are used for calibrating molecular phylogenies.     

Are pollen fossils useful for calibrating relaxed molecular clock dating of phylogenies? A comparative study using Myrtaceae

The identification and application of reliable fossil calibrations represents a key component of many molecular studies of evolutionary timescales. In studies of plants, most paleontological calibrations are associated with macrofossils. However, the pollen record can also inform age calibrations if fossils matching extant pollen groups are found. Recent work has shown that pollen of the myrtle family, Myrtaceae, can be classified into a number of morphological groups that are synapomorphic with molecular groups. By assembling a data matrix of pollen morphological characters from extant and fossil Myrtaceae, we were able to measure the fit of 26 pollen fossils to a molecular phylogenetic tree using parsimony optimisation of characters. We identified eight Myrtaceidites fossils as appropriate for calibration based on the most parsimonious placements of these fossils on the tree. These fossils were used to inform age constraints in a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of a sequence alignment comprising two sequences from the chloroplast genome (matK and ndhF) and one nuclear locus (ITS), sampled from 106 taxa representing 80 genera. Three additional analyses were calibrated by placing pollen fossils using geographic and morphological information (eight calibrations), macrofossils (five calibrations), and macrofossils and pollen fossils in combination (12 calibrations). The addition of new fossil pollen calibrations led to older crown ages than have previously been found for tribes such as Eucalypteae and Myrteae. Estimates of rate variation among lineages were affected by the choice of calibrations, suggesting that the use of multiple calibrations can improve estimates of rate heterogeneity among lineages. This study illustrates the potential of including pollen-based calibrations in molecular studies of divergence times.     

Assessing the quality of molecular divergence time estimates by fossil calibrations and fossil-based model selection

Estimates of species divergence times using DNA sequence data are playing an increasingly important role in studies of evolution, ecology and biogeography. Most work has centred on obtaining appropriate kinds of data and developing optimal estimation procedures, whereas somewhat less attention has focused on the calibration of divergences using fossils. Case studies with multiple fossil calibration points provide important opportunities to examine the divergence time estimation problem in new ways. We discuss two cross-validation procedures that address different aspects of inference in divergence time estimation. 'Fossil cross-validation' is a procedure used to identify the impact of different individual calibrations on overall estimation. This can identify fossils that have an exceptionally large error effect and may warrant further scrutiny. 'Fossil-based model cross-validation' is an entirely different procedure that uses fossils to identify the optimal model of molecular evolution in the context of rate smoothing or other inference methods. Both procedures were applied to two recent studies: an analysis of monocot angiosperms with eight fossil calibrations and an analysis of placental mammals with nine fossil calibrations. In each case, fossil calibrations could be ranked from most to least influential, and in one of the two studies, the fossils provided decisive evidence about the optimal molecular evolutionary model.     

Integrating fossil preservation biases in the selection of calibrations for molecular divergence time estimation

The selection of fossil data to use as calibration age priors in molecular divergence time estimates inherently links neontological methods with paleontological theory. However, few neontological studies have taken into account the possibility of a taphonomic bias in the fossil record when developing approaches to fossil calibration selection. The Sppil-Rongis effect may bias the first appearance of a lineage toward the recent causing most objective calibration selection approaches to erroneously exclude appropriate calibrations or to incorporate multiple calibrations that are too young to accurately represent the divergence times of target lineages. Using turtles as a case study, we develop a Bayesian extension to the fossil selection approach developed by Marshall (2008. A simple method for bracketing absolute divergence times on molecular phylogenies using multiple fossil calibrations points. Am. Nat. 171:726-742) that takes into account this taphonomic bias. Our method has the advantage of identifying calibrations that may bias age estimates to be too recent while incorporating uncertainty in phylogenetic parameter estimates such as tree topology and branch lengths. Additionally, this method is easily adapted to assess the consistency of potential calibrations to any one calibration in the candidate pool.     

Eocene Diversification of Crown Group Rails (Aves: Gruiformes: Rallidae)

Central to our understanding of the timing of bird evolution is debate about an apparent conflict between fossil and molecular data. A deep age for higher level taxa within Neoaves is evident from molecular analyses but much remains to be learned about the age of diversification in modern bird families and their evolutionary ecology. In order to better understand the timing and pattern of diversification within the family Rallidae we used a relaxed molecular clock, fossil calibrations, and complete mitochondrial genomes from a range of rallid species analysed in a Bayesian framework. The estimated time of origin of Rallidae is Eocene, about 40.5 Mya, with evidence of intrafamiliar diversification from the Late Eocene to the Miocene. This timing is older than previously suggested for crown group Rallidae, but fossil calibrations, extent of taxon sampling and substantial sequence data give it credence. We note that fossils of Eocene age tentatively assigned to Rallidae are consistent with our findings. Compared to available studies of other bird lineages, the rail clade is old and supports an inference of deep ancestry of ground-dwelling habits among Neoaves.     

Phylogenetic relationships of the Cretaceous frog Beelzebufo from Madagascar and the placement of fossil constraints based on temporal and phylogenetic evidence

The placement of fossil calibrations is ideally based on the phylogenetic analysis of extinct taxa. Another source of information is the temporal variance for a given clade implied by a particular constraint when combined with other, well-supported calibrations. For example, the frog Beelzebufo ampinga from the Cretaceous of Madagascar has been hypothesized to be a crown-group member of the New World subfamily Ceratophryinae, which would support a Late Cretaceous connection with South America. However, phylogenetic analyses and molecular divergence time estimates based on other fossils do not support this placement. We derive a metric, Δt, to quantify temporal divergence among chronograms and find that errors resulting from mis-specified calibrations are localized when additional nodes throughout the tree are properly calibrated. The use of temporal information from molecular data can further assist in testing phylogenetic hypotheses regarding the placement of extinct taxa.     

Large-Scale Phylogenomic Analyses Reveal the Monophyly of Bryophytes and Neoproterozoic Origin of Land Plants

The relationships among the four major embryophyte lineages (mosses, liverworts, hornworts, vascular plants) and the timing of the origin of land plants are enigmatic problems in plant evolution. Here, we resolve the monophyly of bryophytes by improving taxon sampling of hornworts and eliminating the effect of synonymous substitutions. We then estimate the divergence time of crown embryophytes based on three fossil calibration strategies, and reveal that maximum calibration constraints have a major effect on estimating the time of origin of land plants. Moreover, comparison of priors and posteriors provides a guide for evaluating the optimal calibration strategy. By considering the reliability of fossil calibrations and the influences of molecular data, we estimate that land plants originated in the Precambrian (980–682 Ma), much older than widely recognized. Our study highlights the important contribution of molecular data when faced with contentious fossil evidence, and that fossil calibrations used in estimating the timescale of plant evolution require critical scrutiny.     

Caveats on the use of fossil calibrations for molecular dating: a comment on Near et al

We reassess a study on a fossil-calibrated molecular clock that provides a new method for evaluating the accuracy of calibration points. We address several pitfalls that molecular systematists should be aware of when calculating rates of molecular evolution based on fossil calibrations. These caveats involve the substantiation and accurate use of geologic dates, the inappropriate use of fixed calibration points, and the explicit and objective phylogenetic placement of fossil taxa. Paleontological data, like molecular data, should be treated with the utmost rigor.     

Testing the impact of calibration on molecular divergence times using a fossil-rich group: the case of Nothofagus (Fagales)

Although temporal calibration is widely recognized as critical for obtaining accurate divergence-time estimates using molecular dating methods, few studies have evaluated the variation resulting from different calibration strategies. Depending on the information available, researchers have often used primary calibrations from the fossil record or secondary calibrations from previous molecular dating studies. In analyses of flowering plants, primary calibration data can be obtained from macro- and mesofossils (e.g., leaves, flowers, and fruits) or microfossils (e.g., pollen). Fossil data can vary substantially in accuracy and precision, presenting a difficult choice when selecting appropriate calibrations. Here, we test the impact of eight plausible calibration scenarios for Nothofagus (Nothofagaceae, Fagales), a plant genus with a particularly rich and well-studied fossil record. To do so, we reviewed the phylogenetic placement and geochronology of 38 fossil taxa of Nothofagus and other Fagales, and we identified minimum age constraints for up to 18 nodes of the phylogeny of Fagales. Molecular dating analyses were conducted for each scenario using maximum likelihood (RAxML + r8s) and Bayesian (BEAST) approaches on sequence data from six regions of the chloroplast and nuclear genomes. Using either ingroup or outgroup constraints, or both, led to similar age estimates, except near strongly influential calibration nodes. Using "early but risky" fossil constraints in addition to "safe but late" constraints, or using assumptions of vicariance instead of fossil constraints, led to older age estimates. In contrast, using secondary calibration points yielded drastically younger age estimates. This empirical study highlights the critical influence of calibration on molecular dating analyses. Even in a best-case situation, with many thoroughly vetted fossils available, substantial uncertainties can remain in the estimates of divergence times. For example, our estimates for the crown group age of Nothofagus varied from 13 to 113 Ma across our full range of calibration scenarios. We suggest that increased background research should be made at all stages of the calibration process to reduce errors wherever possible, from verifying the geochronological data on the fossils to critical reassessment of their phylogenetic position.     

Evaluating molecular clock calibrations using Bayesian analyses with soft and hard bounds

A limiting factor in many molecular dating studies is shortage of reliable calibrations. Current methods for choosing calibrations (e.g. cross-validation) treat them as either correct or incorrect, whereas calibrations probably lie on a continuum from highly accurate to very poor. Bayesian relaxed clock analysis permits inclusion of numerous candidate calibrations as priors: provided most calibrations are reliable, the model appropriate and the data informative, the accuracy of each calibration prior can be evaluated. If a calibration is accurate, then the analysis will support the prior so that the posterior estimate reflects the prior; if a calibration is poor, the posterior will be forced away from the prior. We use this approach to test two fossil dates recently proposed as standard calibrations within vertebrates. The proposed bird-crocodile calibration (approx. 247Myr ago) appears to be accurate, but the proposed bird-lizard calibration (approx. 255Myr ago) is substantially too recent.     

Bayesian relaxed clock estimation of divergence times in foraminifera

Accurate and precise estimation of divergence times during the Neo-Proterozoic is necessary to understand the speciation dynamic of early Eukaryotes. However such deep divergences are difficult to date, as the molecular clock is seriously violated. Recent improvements in Bayesian molecular dating techniques allow the relaxation of the molecular clock hypothesis as well as incorporation of multiple and flexible fossil calibrations. Divergence times can then be estimated even when the evolutionary rate varies among lineages and even when the fossil calibrations involve substantial uncertainties. In this paper, we used a Bayesian method to estimate divergence times in Foraminifera, a group of unicellular eukaryotes, known for their excellent fossil record but also for the high evolutionary rates of their genomes. Based on multigene data we reconstructed the phylogeny of Foraminifera and dated their origin and the major radiation events. Our estimates suggest that Foraminifera emerged during the Cryogenian (650-920 Ma, Neo-Proterozoic), with a mean time around 770 Ma, about 220 Myr before the first appearance of reliable foraminiferal fossils in sediments (545 Ma). Most dates are in agreement with the fossil record, but in general our results suggest earlier origins of foraminiferal orders. We found that the posterior time estimates were robust to specifications of the prior. Our results highlight inter-species variations of evolutionary rates in Foraminifera. Their effect was partially overcome by using the partitioned Bayesian analysis to accommodate rate heterogeneity among data partitions and using the relaxed molecular clock to account for changing evolutionary rates. However, more coding genes appear necessary to obtain more precise estimates of divergence times and to resolve the conflicts between fossil and molecular date estimates.     

Tectonic blocks and molecular clocks

Evolutionary timescales have mainly used fossils for calibrating molecular clocks, though fossils only really provide minimum clade age constraints. In their place, phylogenetic trees can be calibrated by precisely dated geological events that have shaped biogeography. However, tectonic episodes are protracted, their role in vicariance is rarely justified, the biogeography of living clades and their antecedents may differ, and the impact of such events is contingent on ecology. Biogeographic calibrations are no panacea for the shortcomings of fossil calibrations, but their associated uncertainties can be accommodated. We provide examples of how biogeographic calibrations based on geological data can be established for the fragmentation of the Pangaean supercontinent: (i) for the uplift of the Isthmus of Panama, (ii) the separation of New Zealand from Gondwana, and (iii) for the opening of the Atlantic Ocean. Biogeographic and fossil calibrations are complementary, not competing, approaches to constraining molecular clock analyses, providing alternative constraints on the age of clades that are vital to avoiding circularity in investigating the role of biogeographic mechanisms in shaping modern biodiversity.This article is part of the themed issue ‘Dating species divergences using rocks and clocks’.     

Calibration uncertainty in molecular dating analyses: there is no substitute for the prior evaluation of time priors

Calibration is the rate-determining step in every molecular clock analysis and, hence, considerable effort has been expended in the development of approaches to distinguish good from bad calibrations. These can be categorized into a priori evaluation of the intrinsic fossil evidence, and a posteriori evaluation of congruence through cross-validation. We contrasted these competing approaches and explored the impact of different interpretations of the fossil evidence upon Bayesian divergence time estimation. The results demonstrate that a posteriori approaches can lead to the selection of erroneous calibrations. Bayesian posterior estimates are also shown to be extremely sensitive to the probabilistic interpretation of temporal constraints. Furthermore, the effective time priors implemented within an analysis differ for individual calibrations when employed alone and in differing combination with others. This compromises the implicit assumption of all calibration consistency methods, that the impact of an individual calibration is the same when used alone or in unison with others. Thus, the most effective means of establishing the quality of fossil-based calibrations is through a priori evaluation of the intrinsic palaeontological, stratigraphic, geochronological and phylogenetic data. However, effort expended in establishing calibrations will not be rewarded unless they are implemented faithfully in divergence time analyses.     

The impact of fossils and taxon sampling on ancient molecular dating analyses

The number and complexity of molecular dating studies has increased over the past decade. Along with a broadening acceptance of their utility has come significant controversy over the methods and models that are appropriate, as well as the accuracy of the estimates yielded by molecular clock analyses. Radically different age estimates have been published for the same divergences from analyses of different datasets with different fossil constraints obtained with different methods, and the underlying explanation for these differences is often unclear. Here we utilize two previously published datasets to examine the effect of fossil calibrations and taxon sampling on the age estimates for two deep eukaryote divergences in an attempt to discern the relative impact of these factors. Penalized likelihood, non-parametric rate smoothing, and Bayesian methods were utilized to generate age estimates for the origin of the Metazoa from a 7-gene dataset and for the divergence of Eukaryotes from a 129-gene dataset. From these analyses, it is clear that the fossil calibrations chosen and the method for applying constraints to these nodes have a large impact on age estimates, while the degree of taxon sampling within a dataset is less important in terms of the resulting age estimates. Concerns and recommendations for addressing these two factors when initiating a dating analysis are discussed.     

Calibration age and quartet divergence date estimation

The date of a single divergence point--between living alligators and crocodiles--was estimated with quartet dating using calibrations of widely divergent ages. For five mitochondrial sequence datasets, there is a clear relationship between calibration age and quartet estimate--quartets based on two relatively recent calibrations support younger divergence estimates than do quartets based on two older calibrations. Some of the estimates supported by young quartets are impossibly young and exclude the first appearance of the group in the fossil record as too old. The older estimates--those based on two relatively old calibrations--may be overestimates, and those based on one old and one recent calibration support divergence estimates very close to fossil data. This suggests that quartet dating methods may be most effective when calibrations are applied from different parts of a clade's history.     

Biogeographic calibrations for the molecular clock

Molecular estimates of evolutionary timescales have an important role in a range of biological studies. Such estimates can be made using methods based on molecular clocks, including models that are able to account for rate variation across lineages. All clock models share a dependence on calibrations, which enable estimates to be given in absolute time units. There are many available methods for incorporating fossil calibrations, but geological and climatic data can also provide useful calibrations for molecular clocks. However, a number of strong assumptions need to be made when using these biogeographic calibrations, leading to wide variation in their reliability and precision. In this review, we describe the nature of biogeographic calibrations and the assumptions that they involve. We present an overview of the different geological and climatic events that can provide informative calibrations, and explain how such temporal information can be incorporated into dating analyses.     

Inferring speciation times under an episodic molecular clock

We extend our recently developed Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for Bayesian estimation of species divergence times to allow variable evolutionary rates among lineages. The method can use heterogeneous data from multiple gene loci and accommodate multiple fossil calibrations. Uncertainties in fossil calibrations are described using flexible statistical distributions. The prior for divergence times for nodes lacking fossil calibrations is specified by use of a birth-death process with species sampling. The prior for lineage-specific substitution rates is specified using either a model with autocorrelated rates among adjacent lineages (based on a geometric Brownian motion model of rate drift) or a model with independent rates among lineages specified by a log-normal probability distribution. We develop an infinite-sites theory, which predicts that when the amount of sequence data approaches infinity, the width of the posterior credibility interval and the posterior mean of divergence times form a perfect linear relationship, with the slope indicating uncertainties in time estimates that cannot be reduced by sequence data alone. Simulations are used to study the influence of among-lineage rate variation and the number of loci sampled on the uncertainty of divergence time estimates. The analysis suggests that posterior time estimates typically involve considerable uncertainties even with an infinite amount of sequence data, and that the reliability and precision of fossil calibrations are critically important to divergence time estimation. We apply our new algorithms to two empirical data sets and compare the results with those obtained in previous Bayesian and likelihood analyses. The results demonstrate the utility of our new algorithms.     

Calibration choice, rate smoothing, and the pattern of tetrapod diversification according to the long nuclear gene RAG-1

A phylogeny of tetrapods is inferred from nearly complete sequences of the nuclear RAG-1 gene sampled across 88 taxa encompassing all major clades, analyzed via parsimony and Bayesian methods. The phylogeny provides support for Lissamphibia, Theria, Lepidosauria, a turtle-archosaur clade, as well as most traditionally accepted groupings. This tree allows simultaneous molecular clock dating for all tetrapod groups using a set of well-corroborated calibrations. Relaxed clock (PLRS) methods, using the amniote = 315 Mya (million years ago) calibration or a set of consistent calibrations, recovers reasonable divergence dates for most groups. However, the analysis systematically underestimates divergence dates within archosaurs. The bird-crocodile split, robustly documented in the fossil record as being around approximately 245 Mya, is estimated at only approximately 190 Mya, and dates for other divergences within archosaurs are similarly underestimated. Archosaurs, and particulary turtles have slow apparent rates possibly confounding rate modeling, and inclusion of calibrations within archosaurs (despite their high deviances) not only improves divergence estimates within archosaurs, but also across other groups. Notably, the monotreme-therian split ( approximately 210 Mya) matches the fossil record; the squamate radiation ( approximately 190 Mya) is younger than suggested by some recent molecular studies and inconsistent with identification of approximately 220 and approximately 165 Myo (million-year-old) fossils as acrodont iguanians and approximately 95 Myo fossils colubroid snakes; the bird-lizard (reptile) split is considerably older than fossil estimates (< or = 285 Mya); and Sphenodon is a remarkable phylogenetic relic, being the sole survivor of a lineage more than a quarter of a billion years old. Comparison with other molecular clock studies of tetrapod divergences suggests that the common practice of enforcing most calibrations as minima, with a single liberal maximal constraint, will systematically overestimate divergence dates. Similarly, saturation of mitochondrial DNA sequences, and the resultant greater compression of basal branches means that using only external deep calibrations will also lead to inflated age estimates within the focal ingroup.     

Molecular clocks do not support the Cambrian explosion

The fossil record has long supported the view that most animal phyla originated during a brief period approximately 520 MYA known as the Cambrian explosion. However, molecular data analyses over the past 3 decades have found deeper divergences among animals (approximately 800 to 1,200 MYA), with and without the assumption of a global molecular clock. Recently, two studies have instead reported time estimates apparently consistent with the fossil record. Here, we demonstrate that methodological problems in these studies cast doubt on the accuracy and interpretations of the results obtained. In the study by Peterson et al., young time estimates were obtained because fossil calibrations were used as maximum limits rather than as minimum limits, and not because invertebrate calibrations were used. In the study by Aris-Brosou and Yang, young time estimates were obtained because of problems with rate models and other methods specific to the study, and not because Bayesian methods were used. This also led to many anomalous findings in their study, including a primate-rodent divergence at 320 MYA. With these results aside, molecular clocks continue to support a long period of animal evolution before the Cambrian explosion of fossils.