Seed supply, drought, and grazing determine spatio-temporal patterns of recruitment for native and introduced invasive pines in grasslands

Aim The rate of grassland invasion by trees depends on the ability of the species to invade, i.e. their invasiveness, and on the susceptibility of the environments to invasion, i.e. their invasibility. Knowledge of the invasiveness of native and introduced tree species and of the environmental factors that contribute to invasibility is necessary to understand landscape evolution and assess required management measures. Our main aim was to explore this by estimating the separate effects of propagule pressure and environmental factors on the spatio‐temporal patterns of sapling recruitment, a key stage in the tree life cycle. Location Causse Mejean calcareous plateau (southern France). Methods The effects of seed supply and environmental variables (grazing, geological substrate, and duration or intensity of drought) on the spatio‐temporal patterns of sapling recruitment were assessed for the native Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and the introduced black pine (Pinus nigra Arn. ssp. nigra). Estimates were derived by inverse modelling with data of locations and ages of 4‐ to 20‐year‐old saplings and seed‐bearing trees in 32 sites. Yearly indices of drought were derived from a soil–water content model. Results For both species, seed supply was as important as the whole set of environmental factors in explaining sapling recruitment rates. Grazing and the duration of drought from July to August decreased sapling recruitment rates, which were also lower on hard limestone than on dolomite. Dispersal distances and effective fecundities were higher for the introduced P. nigra, which was less susceptible to drought but more affected by grazing than the native P. sylvestris. In grazed grasslands, shrubs facilitated sapling establishment of both species. Main conclusions This study shows how seed supply and environmental factors shape spatio‐temporal patterns of sapling recruitment for trees invading grasslands. Implications for landscape evolution and management, of the difference in invasiveness of the two pine species and of the hierarchy of environmental factors in determining invasibility, are discussed.     

Comparison of the initial demographies of pine and oak populations in rural pine forests in Korea and Japan

In order to understand the human impact upon demographic change in plant population in rural forests, we examined the population trends ofPinus densiflora andQuercus serrata inP. densiflora forests viewing their seedlings and saplings in rural Korea and Japan. The most prominent factor affecting the regeneration of the pine and oak was the intensity of management activity which controlled the vegetation stratification and its light environment. Open spaces, such as graveyard or cleaned area that allow the long-term direct daylight in dry season to accelerate the surface heat of soil, were unfavorable habitats for germination and growth of both species. The negative effects of the presence of litter and evergreen trees were related to the failure of early seedling and sapling growth of pine. Cover of litter is, especially, another factor related to the growth of pine saplings. It is considered that successful germination and sapling growth of pine and oak in early successional stages is determined by vegetation structures and light condition.     

Use of Shrubs as Nurse Plants: A New Technique for Reforestation in Mediterranean Mountains

Common techniques currently used for afforestation in the Mediterranean basin consider the pre‐existing vegetation (mainly shrubs) as a source of competition for trees, and consequently it is generally eliminated before planting. Nevertheless, it has been demonstrated that woody plants can facilitate the establishment of understory seedlings in environments that, like the Mediterranean area, are characterized by a pronounced dry season. In this study, we experimentally analyze the usefulness of shrubs as nurse plants for afforestation of two native conifers, Pinus sylvestris L. (Scots pine) and Pinus nigra Arnold (black pine). Two‐year‐old seedlings were planted in four microhabitats: (1) open interspaces without vegetation (which is the usual method used in afforestation programs), (2) under individuals of Salvia lavandulifolia, (3) under the north side of spiny shrubs, and (4) under the south side of spiny shrubs. Pine survival was remarkably higher when planted under individuals of the shrub S. lavandulifolia (54.8% for Scots pine, 81.9% for black pine) compared with open areas (21.5% for Scots pine, 56.8% for black pine; chi square, p < 0.05). The survival of both pines was also higher when planted on the north side of spiny shrubs, although the survival on the south side was similar to that found in open areas. In addition, pine growth was not inhibited when planted in association with shrubs. This pattern appears to result from the combination of abiotic conditions imposed by the presence of a nurse shrub, which leads to improvement in seedling water status and therefore reduced summer mortality by drought. The results show that the use of shrubs as nurse plants is a technique that offers both economic and ecological advantages, in terms of savings in labor and plant material and reduced and even negligible impact on the pre‐existing vegetation.     

Terpenes as Useful Markers in Differentiation of Natural Populations of Relict Pines Pinus heldreichii,P. nigra,and P. peuce

Comparative analysis of terpene diversity and differentiation of relict pines Pinus heldreichii, P. nigra, and P. peuce from the central Balkans was performed at the population level. Multivariate statistical analyses showed that the composition of needle terpenes reflects clear divergence among the pine species from different subgenera: P. peuce (subgenus Strobus) vs. P. nigra and P. heldreichii (subgenus Pinus). In addition, despite the described morphological similarities and the fact that P. nigra and P. heldreichii may spontaneously hybridize, our results indicated differentiation of their populations naturally growing in the same area. In accordance with recently proposed concept of ‘flavonic evolution’ in the genus Pinus, we assumed that the terpene profile of soft pine P. peuce, defined by high amounts of six monoterpenes, is more basal than those of hard pines P. nigra and P. heldreichii, which were characterized by high content levels of mainly sesquiterpenes. In order to establish precise positions of P. heldreichii, P. nigra and P. peuce within the taxonomic and phylogenetic tree, as well as develop suitable conservation strategies and future breeding efforts, it is necessary to perform additional morphological, biochemical, and genetic studies.     

Breeding performance and longevity of Tomicus destruens on Mediterranean and continental pine species

The pine shoot beetle Tomicus destruens (Wollaston) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) is one of the main pests of Mediterranean forests, where it is oligophagous on Mediterranean pines. However, possible global warming may make the insect move to higher latitudes and altitudes, allowing it to attack new pine species. In this respect, the aim of the present article was to assess both the acceptance and performance of T. destruens offered host and non‐host pine species. A no‐choice breeding experiment was set up under laboratory conditions, using logs of three Mediterranean (Pinus pinea L., Pinus pinaster Miller, and Pinus halepensis Aiton) and two continental (Pinus nigra Arnold and Pinus sylvestris L.) pine species. Log debarking at the end of adult emergence assessed parent fecundity, egg, and larval mortality. The quality of callow adults emerging from each tested pine was evaluated on the basis of their longevity on a semiartificial diet. Tomicus destruens colonised all tested pine species, but did not reproduce in Scots pine, taking about 79 days to complete development with no differences among pines tested. The best breeding performance, evaluated as female fecundity and adult production, was observed in P. halepensis, and the lowest in P. pinaster. On average, adults emerging from P. pinea survived longer (83 days) than from other pines, and adult longevity was the lowest in males emerging from P. nigra. Austrian pine, which under natural conditions is usually not a host of T. destruens, allowed insect development and adult production similar to P. pinea and P. pinaster.     

Climatic niche and neutral genetic diversity of the six Iberian pine species: a retrospective and prospective view

Quaternary climatic fluctuations have left contrasting historical footprints on the neutral genetic diversity patterns of existing populations of different tree species. We should expect the demography, and consequently the neutral genetic structure, of taxa less tolerant to particular climatic extremes to be more sensitive to long‐term climate fluctuations. We explore this hypothesis here by sampling all six pine species found in the Iberian Peninsula (2464 individuals, 105 populations), using a common set of chloroplast microsatellite markers, and by looking at the association between neutral genetic diversity and species‐specific climatic requirements. We found large variation in neutral genetic diversity and structure among Iberian pines, with cold‐enduring mountain species (Pinus uncinata, P. sylvestris and P. nigra) showing substantially greater diversity than thermophilous taxa (P. pinea and P. halepensis). Within species, we observed a significant positive correlation between population genetic diversity and summer precipitation for some of the mountain pines. The observed pattern is consistent with the hypotheses that: (i) more thermophilous species have been subjected to stronger demographic fluctuations in the past, as a consequence of their maladaptation to recurrent glacial cold stages; and (ii) altitudinal migrations have allowed the maintenance of large effective population sizes and genetic variation in cold‐tolerant species, especially in more humid regions. In the light of these results and hypotheses, we discuss some potential genetic consequences of impending climate change.     

Facilitation and interference underlying the association between the woody invaders Pyracantha angustifolia and Ligustrum lucidum

Questions: 1. Is there any post‐dispersal positive effect of the exotic shrub Pyracantha angustifolia on the success of Ligustrum lucidum seedlings, as compared to the effect of the native Condalia montana or the open herbaceous patches between shrubs? 2. Is the possible facilitation by Pyracantha and/or Condalia related to differential emergence, growth, or survival of Ligustrum seedlings under their canopies? Location: Córdoba, central Argentina. Methods: We designed three treatments, in which ten mature individuals of Pyracantha, ten of the dominant native shrub Condalia montana, and ten patches without shrub cover were involved. In each treatment we planted seeds and saplings of Ligustrum collected from nearby natural populations. Seedlings emerging from the planted seeds were harvested after one year to measure growth. Survival of the transplanted saplings was recorded every two month during a year. Half of the planted seeds and transplanted saplings were cage‐protected from rodents. Results: Ligustrum seedling emergence did not differ among treatments while growth was significantly higher in the absence of shrub cover. Sapling survival was significantly higher under the canopy of Pyracantha, intermediate under Condalia, and lowest in the absence of shrub cover. Caging did not affect growth but enhanced seedling emergence and sapling survival. Conclusion: The differential sapling survival in the shrub canopy treatments is consistent with natural sapling distribution. Pyracantha and, less so, Condalia, has a nurse‐plant effect on Ligustrum. This results from contrasting effects of the shrubs on different stages of the life cycle of Ligustrum: no effect on seedling emergence, negative on seedling growth, and positive on sapling survival. This suggests that efforts to control the expansion of Ligustrum over the landscape should tackle Pyracantha as well.     

Cones structure and seed traits of four species of large‐seeded pines: Adaptation to animal‐mediated dispersal

Seed dispersal selection pressures may cause morphological differences in cone structure and seed traits of large‐seeded pine trees. We investigated the cone, seed, and scale traits of four species of animal‐dispersed pine trees to explore the adaptations of morphological structures to different dispersers. The four focal pines analyzed in this study were Chinese white pine (Pinus armandi), Korean pine (P. koraiensis), Siberian dwarf pine (P. pumila), and Dabieshan white pine (P. dabeshanensis). There are significant differences in the traits of the cones and seeds of these four animal‐dispersed pines. The scales of Korean pine and Siberian dwarf pine are somewhat opened after cone maturity, the seeds are closely combined with scales, and the seed coat and scales are thick. The cones of Chinese white pine and Dabieshan white pine are open after ripening, the seeds fall easily from the cones, and the seed coat and seed scales are relatively thin. The results showed that the cone structure of Chinese white pine is similar to that of Dabieshan white pine, whereas Korean pine and Siberian dwarf pine are significantly different from the other two pines and vary significantly from each other. This suggests that species with similar seed dispersal strategies exhibit similar morphological adaptions. Accordingly, we predicted three possible seed dispersal paradigms for animal‐dispersed pines: the first, as represented by Chinese white pine and Dabieshan white pine, relies upon small forest rodents for seed dispersal; the second, represented by Korean pine, relies primarily on birds and squirrels to disperse the seeds; and the third, represented by Siberian dwarf pine, relies primarily on birds for seed dispersal. Our study highlights the significance of animal seed dispersal in shaping cone morphology, and our predictions provide a theoretical framework for research investigating the coevolution of large‐seeded pines and their seed dispersers.     

Pine invasion impacts on plant diversity in Patagonia: invader size and invaded habitat matter

Conifers, which are widely planted as fast growing tree crops, are invading forested and treeless environments across the globe, causing important changes in biodiversity. However, how small-scale impacts on plant diversity differ according to pine size and habitat context remains unclear. We assessed the effects of different stages of pine invasion on plant communities in forest and steppe sites located in southern Chile. In each site, we sampled plant diversity under and outside the canopy of Pinus contorta individuals, using paired plots. We assessed the relative impact of pine invasion on plant species richness and cover. In both sites, richness and cover beneath pine canopy decreased with increasing pine size (i.e. height and canopy area). A significant negative impact of pines on species richness and plant cover was detected for pines over 4 m in height. The impact of pines on plant richness and cover depended on pine size (i.e. canopy area) and habitat type. Larger pines had more negative impacts than smaller pines in both sites, with a greater impact for a given pine size in the Patagonian steppe compared to the A. araucaria forest. Species composition changed between under and outside canopy plots when pines were 4 m or taller. Pine presence reduced cover of most species. The impacts of pine invasions are becoming evident in forested and treeless ecosystems of southern Chile. Our results suggest that the magnitude of pine invasion impacts could be related to how adapted the invaded community is to tree cover, with the treeless environment more impacted by the invasion.     

Modeling the Expansion of an Introduced Tree Disease

Pine wilt disease is caused by the introduced pinewood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, for which the vector is the pine sawyer beetle, Monochamus alternatus. Native Japanese pines, black pine (Pinus thunbergii) and red pine (P. densiflora), are extremely sensitive to the nematode's infection, and the parasite has been expanding nationwide in the last few decades, despite intensive control efforts. To understand the parasite's range expansion in Japan, we modeled the dynamics of the pines and the beetle that disperses the nematode, using an integro-difference equation in a one-dimensional space. Based on field data collected in Japan, we investigated the dependence of the parasite's rate of range expansion on the eradication rate of the beetle, the initial pine density, and the beetle dispersal ability. Our model predicts several results. (1) The Allee Effect operates on beetle reproduction, and consequently the parasite cannot invade a pine stand, once the beetle density decreases below a threshold. (2) The distribution of the dispersal distance of the beetles critically affects the expansion rate of the disease. As the fraction of the beetles that travel over long distance increases from zero, the range expansion accelerates sharply. (3) However, too frequent long-range dispersal results in a failure of the parasite invasion due to the Allee Effect, suggesting the importance of correctly assessing the beetle's mobility to predict the speed of range expansion of the parasite. (4) As the eradication rate is increased, the range expansion speed decreases gradually at first and suddenly drops to zero at a specific value of the eradication rate. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Seed screening of three pine species for glyphosate sensitivity for forest restoration

Austrian black pine (Pinus nigra J.F. Arnold), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), and maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton) are commonly used in restoration practices in the Mediterranean base including Turkey. Direct seeding can secure desired level of tree establishment and survival on degraded sites wherever, favorable safe sites are scattered throughout the landscape. Glyphosate is a commonly used herbicide for weed control in forest, nursery and restoration sites worldwide, due to its broad-spectrum efficacy and considerably less toxicity on the environment compared to other chemicals. The present study screened the glyphosate phytotoxicity of three dominant pine species in Turkey during a seed germination trial, after seeds had been presoaked in 15 different dose-glyphosate solutions varying between 0 and 5%, v:v. Glyphosate applications damaged seed germination speed more than cumulative germination rate. As a systemic herbicide, glyphosate appeared highly phytotoxic to Austrian black pine. Scots pine showed an intermediate glyphosate phytotoxicity. Maritime pine was the least sensitive species, tolerating glyphosate at ≤1% doses. In conclusion, glyphosate may be used at low doses on restoration sites seeded with maritime pine while it is not recommended to be used on degraded sites seeded with Austrian black pine and Scots pine.     

Large‐scale assessment of regeneration and diversity in Mediterranean planted pine forests along ecological gradients

Aim There is increasing concern regarding sustainable management and restoration of planted forests, particularly in the Mediterranean Basin where pine species have been widely used. The aim of this study was to analyse the environmental and structural characteristics of Mediterranean planted pine forests in relation to natural pine forests. Specifically, we assessed recruitment and woody species richness along climatic, structural and perturbation gradients to aid in developing restoration guidelines. Location Continental Spain. Methods We conducted a multivariate comparison of ecological characteristics in planted and natural stands of main Iberian native pine species (Pinus halepensis, Pinus pinea, Pinus pinaster, Pinus nigra and Pinus sylvestris). We fitted species‐specific statistical models of recruitment and woody species richness and analysed the response of natural and planted stands along ecological gradients. Results Planted pine forests occurred on average on poorer soils and experienced higher anthropic disturbance rates (fire frequency and anthropic mortality) than natural pine forests. Planted pine forests had lower regeneration and diversity levels than natural pine forests, and these differences were more pronounced in mountain pine stands. The largest differences in recruitment – chiefly oak seedling abundance – and species richness between planted and natural stands occurred at low‐medium values of annual precipitation, stand tree density, distance to Quercus forests and fire frequency, whereas differences usually disappeared in the upper part of the gradients. Main conclusions Structural characteristics and patterns of recruitment and species richness differ in pine planted forests compared to natural pine ecosystems in the Mediterranean, especially for mountain pines. However, management options exist that would reduce differences between these forest types, where restoration towards more natural conditions is feasible. To increase recruitment and diversity, vertical and horizontal heterogeneity could be promoted by thinning in high‐density and homogeneous stands, while enrichment planting would be desirable in mesic and medium‐density planted forests.     

The red turpentine beetle, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Dendroctonus valens</Emphasis> LeConte (Scolytidae): an exotic invasive pest of pine in China

An exotic invasive pest of pines, the red turpentine beetle, Dendroctonus valens LeConte (Scolytidae) (RTB), was first detected in Shanxi Province, northern China, in 1998 and started causing widespread tree mortality there in 1999. This outbreak continues and has spread to three adjacent provinces, causing unprecedented tree mortality. Although it is considered a minor pest of pines in North America, RTB has proven to be an aggressive and destructive pest of Pinus tabuliformis, China’s most widely planted pine species. The bionomics and occurrence, distribution, response to host volatiles, and host preference of this pine beetle in China are compared with what is known of the beetle in its native range in North America. Factors likely contributing to D. valens success in China and control of the beetle outbreak are discussed. (−)-β-pinene was shown to be the most attractive host volatile for D. valens from the Sierra Nevada of California, whereas 3-(+)-carene is the most attractive host volatile for beetles in China. Monocultures of Pinus tabuliformis, several consecutive years of drought conditions and warm winters have apparently factored D. valens invasion and establishment in China.     

Spatial variation of seedling distribution in an east Mediterranean pine woodland at the beginning of post-fire succession

Most of the area in pine woodlands is occupied by perennial seeders that regenerate from seeds in the first winter after the fire and by annuals. Control of the germination in the regenerating vegetation after wildfire is therefore a primary ecological component of the post-fire succession in this ecosystem. The aim of the study presented here was to determine the distribution of Pinus, Cistus and other plants seeds around burned Pinus halepensis trees, and to measure the conditions related to seed germination in the upper soil layers in the same locations. The study was carried out in a 50-year old planted Pinus halepensis woodland that was burned down by a wildfire in July 1995. The variation of seedbank density was determined by collecting samples under the canopies of burned trees and in a nearby open area. Pine seedbank density decreased and that of Cistus and annuals increased with increasing distance from the burned trunks. Most pine seeds were present in the ash layer while those of the other plants were in the soil. In situ germination experiments showed that seedling density decreased with distance from the burned trunks while the proportion of pines in the seedling population increased. This was a result of seedbank variation and germination inhibition by the high pH conditions caused by the ash. The establishment of sparse pine seedling under the dead tree canopies insured their rapid development without interference by other plants and played a key role in the regeneration and stability of the pine woodland community. The concomitant mass germination of the perennial seeders in the rest of the area prevented invasion by annuals.     

THE IMPACT OF TREE SQUIRRELS (TAMIASCIURUS) ON LIMBER PINE SEED DISPERSAL ADAPTATIONS

Tree squirrels (Tamiasciurus) are important selective agents on conifer reproductive strategies (Smith 1970, 1975). Although this is well established for wind-dispersed pines, the impact of tree squirrels on bird-dispersed pines has been largely ignored. I assessed the impact of tree squirrels on the allocation of reproductive energy in the bird-dispersed limber pine (Pinus flexilis) by comparing its cone and seed traits from three sites in the Rocky Mountains where tree squirrels (Tamiasciurus) are present to those from three mountain ranges in the Great Basin where tree squirrels are absent. As predicted, differences between the two regions in individual cone and seed traits are consistent with the hypothesis that tree squirrels are important selective agents on these traits. In the absence of tree squirrels, limber pine allocates more than twice as much energy to kernel compared with that invested in putative seed defenses (cone, resin, and seed coat) as does limber pine where tree squirrels are present. Such a large difference is particularly striking, because tree squirrels may have become extinct in the Great Basin in only the last 12,000 yr. Although many factors influence the allocation of energy to cones and seeds, no single factor other than the presence of tree squirrels is compatible with the large and consistent differences between limber pine in the Rocky Mountains and Great Basin. These results show that tree squirrels are an important constraint on the evolution of cone and seed traits that promote the dispersal of seeds by birds.     

Determinants of coastal treeline and the role of abiotic and biotic interactions

Recent die-off of coastal forests has been attributed primarily to the effects of sea level rise by correlation with tide-gage records. Due to the temporal and spatial scales involved, direct monitoring of sea level rise impacts is challenging and its attribution can be confounded by both land-use history and species interactions. Here we present experimental evidence for a micro-tidal, oligohaline estuarine system that the location of coastal treeline is determined by both environmental controls and positive and negative species interactions. We conducted field surveys and a transplant experiment to determine the controls on pine seedling establishment and survival along a salinity and flooding gradient. Using a two-way changepoint model we determined that sawgrass cover (Cladium jamaicense) and salinity concentrations interact to control natural pine regeneration (Pinus taeda). The long-term removal of sawgrass resulted in increased soil salinity and high rates of (planted) pine seedling mortality. In contrast, pine seedlings planted directly under sawgrass were able to survive at the same level as upland forest plots because of reduced salinity levels. This research provides evidence that sawgrass can facilitate pine seedling survival, but also suggests that either competitive exclusion by sawgrass or dispersal limitations prevent initial pine seedling regeneration. We propose that forest dynamics are closely coupled to fire, which consumes sawgrass biomass and reduces competition between pine seedlings and grass. Following fire, pine seedling establishment and the regrowth of sawgrass facilitates long-term pine seedling survival. Under this scenario, recent marsh invasion into coastal forests may not necessarily represent a permanent state change in locations where abiotic stress is not the only determinant for community composition.     

Identities and distributions of the co-invading ectomycorrhizal fungal symbionts of exotic pines in the Hawaiian Islands

Pine species have become invasive throughout the globe and threaten to replace native biota. The threat of pine invasion is particularly pressing in parts of the tropics where there are no native pines. The factors that govern pine invasion are not often well understood. However, key to pine survival is an obligate and mutualistic interaction with ectomycorrhizal fungi. Thus for pines to successfully invade new habitats compatible ectomycorrhizal fungi must already be present, or be co-introduced. The purpose of this study was to examine the community structure of non-native ectomycorrhizal fungi associated with pine invasions in the Hawaiian Islands. To accomplish this we executed a field and greenhouse study and used a molecular ecology approach to identify the fungi associating with invasive pines in Hawai‘i. We show that: (1) ectomycorrhizal fungal species richness in non-native pine plantations is far less than what is found in pine’s native range, (2) there was a significant decrease in average ectomycorrhizal fungal species richness as distance from pine plantations increased and, (3) Suillus species were the dominant fungi colonizing pines outside plantations. The keystone ectomycorrhizal fungal taxa responsible for pine establishment in Hawai‘i are within genera commonly associated with pine invasions throughout the globe. We surmise that these fungi share functional traits such as the ability for long-distance dispersal from plantations and host tree colonization via spore that lead to their success when introduced to new habitats.     

Tree response and mountain pine beetle attack preference,reproduction and emergence timing in mixed whitebark and lodgepole pine stands

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Spatiotemporal dynamics of recruitment in Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis Miller)

Spatial and temporal aspects of recruitment play a central role in plant population and community dynamics and have important basic and applied implications. Here we summarize and discuss the results from studies of spatiotemporal dynamics of recruitment stages (seeds-seedlings-saplings) in Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis) throughout the species' native range. Seed release is induced either by fire (pyriscence) or by drying atmospheric conditions (xeriscence), each generating a distinct temporal pattern. In both cases most seeds travel relatively short distances (<30 m). Pyriscence is not expected to promote long-distance seed dispersal, but xeriscence is associated with relatively strong winds that can transport seeds over 1 km and more, as predicted by a new mechanistic dispersal model. In the absence of fire, seed survival increases with distance from adults because of higher competition with adults and sibs and higher seed predation near the seed sources. New data provide further evidence for such distance-dependent seed predation and also show that predation rates vary among habitats and are lowest in times of high seed abundance. The resulting recruitment patterns in the absence of fire are characterized by rapid spread and complex spatiotemporal dynamics that are fairly unpredictable and give rise to variable age structure. In contrast, the spatial pattern of the first post-fire generation is highly predictable because it explicitly replicates the spatial pattern of the pre-fire population. Unlike fire-free regeneration in which multiple factors operating at various stages are likely to be important, post-fire regeneration is governed by a fairly specific set of factors (the chemical properties of ash) operating during a specific stage (saplings) and at a specific location (the canopy projection of large burned pines). Post-fire forests are therefore even-aged and have predictable spatiotemporal dynamics. Most studies of Aleppo pine recruitment have focused on the seedling and sapling stages and on post-fire regeneration; we call for greater attention to the seed stage and to more extensive sampling of all recruitment stages in both space and time.