Interpersonal Trust across Six Asia-Pacific Countries: Testing and Extending the ‘High Trust Society’ and ‘Low Trust Society’ Theory

Background

Trust is regarded as a necessary component for the smooth running of society, although societal and political modernising processes have been linked to an increase in mistrust, potentially signalling social and economic problems. Fukuyama developed the notion of ‘high trust’ and ‘low trust’ societies, as a way of understanding trust within different societies. The purpose of this paper is to empirically test and extend Fukuyama’s theory utilising data on interpersonal trust in Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan, Australia and Thailand. This paper focuses on trust in family, neighbours, strangers, foreigners and people with a different religion.

Methods

Cross-sectional surveys were undertaken in 2009–10, with an overall sample of 6331. Analyses of differences in overall levels of trust between countries were undertaken using Chi square analyses. Multivariate binomial logistic regression analysis was undertaken to identify socio-demographic predictors of trust in each country.

Results

Our data indicate a tripartite trust model: ‘high trust’ in Australia and Hong Kong; ‘medium trust’ in Japan and Taiwan; and ‘low trust’ in South Korea and Thailand. Trust in family and neighbours were very high across all countries, although trust in people with a different religion, trust in strangers and trust in foreigners varied considerably between countries. The regression models found a consistent group of subpopulations with low trust across the countries: people on low incomes, younger people and people with poor self-rated health. The results were conflicting for gender: females had lower trust in Thailand and Hong Kong, although in Australia, males had lower trust in strangers, whereas females had lower trust in foreigners.

Conclusion

This paper identifies high, medium and low trust societies, in addition to high and low trusting population subgroups. Our analyses extend the seminal work of Fukuyama, providing both corroboration and refutation for his theory.     

Acceptance of Vaccinations in Pandemic Outbreaks: A Discrete Choice Experiment

Background

Preventive measures are essential to limit the spread of new viruses; their uptake is key to their success. However, the vaccination uptake in pandemic outbreaks is often low. We aim to elicit how disease and vaccination characteristics determine preferences of the general public for new pandemic vaccinations.

Methods

In an internet-based discrete choice experiment (DCE) a representative sample of 536 participants (49% participation rate) from the Dutch population was asked for their preference for vaccination programs in hypothetical communicable disease outbreaks. We used scenarios based on two disease characteristics (susceptibility to and severity of the disease) and five vaccination program characteristics (effectiveness, safety, advice regarding vaccination, media attention, and out-of-pocket costs). The DCE design was based on a literature review, expert interviews and focus group discussions. A panel latent class logit model was used to estimate which trade-offs individuals were willing to make.

Results

All above mentioned characteristics proved to influence respondents’ preferences for vaccination. Preference heterogeneity was substantial. Females who stated that they were never in favor of vaccination made different trade-offs than males who stated that they were (possibly) willing to get vaccinated. As expected, respondents preferred and were willing to pay more for more effective vaccines, especially if the outbreak was more serious (€6–€39 for a 10% more effective vaccine). Changes in effectiveness, out-of-pocket costs and in the body that advises the vaccine all substantially influenced the predicted uptake.

Conclusions

We conclude that various disease and vaccination program characteristics influence respondents’ preferences for pandemic vaccination programs. Agencies responsible for preventive measures during pandemics can use the knowledge that out-of-pocket costs and the way advice is given affect vaccination uptake to improve their plans for future pandemic outbreaks. The preference heterogeneity shows that information regarding vaccination needs to be targeted differently depending on gender and willingness to get vaccinated.     

Potential Impact of Influenza A/H1N1 Pandemic and Hand-Gels on Acute Diarrhea Epidemic in France

Background

The 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic has received a great deal of attention from public health authorities. Our study examines whether this pandemic and the resulting public health measures could have impacted acute diarrhea, a prevalent, highly transmissible and historically monitored disease.

Methods

Using augmentation procedures of national data for the previous five years (2004–2009), we estimated the expected timing and incidence of acute diarrhea in France in 2009–2010 and evaluated differences with the observed. We also reviewed national hand gels for the same period.

Findings

Number of episodes of acute diarrhea in France in 2009–2010 was significantly lower than expected until the third week of December (−24%, 95% CI [−36%; −9%]), then significantly higher (+40%, 95% CI [22%; 62%]), leading to a surplus of 574,440 episodes. The epidemic was delayed by 5 weeks with a peak 1.3 times higher than expected. Hand-gels sales inversely correlated with incidence of both influenza-like illness and acute diarrheal disease. Among individuals >65 yo, no excess cases of influenza and no excess rebound in acute diarrhea were observed, despite similar delay in the onset of the seasonal diarrheal epidemic.

Interpretation

Our results suggest that at least one endemic disease had an unexpected behavior in 2009–2010. Acute diarrhea seems to have been controlled during the beginning of the pandemic in all age groups, but later peaked higher than expected in the younger population. The all-age delay in seasonal onset seems partly attributable to hand-gels use, while the differential magnitude of the seasonal epidemic between young and old, concurrent for both influenza and acute diarrhea, is compatible with disease interaction.     

Low Rate of Pandemic A/H1N1 2009 Influenza Infection and Lack of Severe Complication of Vaccination in Pregnant Women: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background

In 2009, pregnant women were specifically targeted by a national vaccination campaign against pandemic A/H1N1 influenza virus. The objectives of the COFLUPREG study, initially set up to assess the incidence of serious forms of A/H1N1 influenza, were to assess the consequences of maternal vaccination on pregnancy outcomes and maternal seroprotection at delivery.

Methods

Pregnant women, between 12 and 35 weeks of gestation, non vaccinated against A/H1N1 2009 influenza were randomly selected to be included in a prospective cohort study conducted in three maternity centers in Paris (France) during pandemic period. Blood samples were planned to assess hemagglutination inhibition (HI) antibody against A/H1N1 2009 influenza at inclusion and at delivery.

Results

Among the 877 pregnant women included in the study, 678 (77.3%) had serum samples both at inclusion and delivery, and 320 (36.5%) received pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza vaccine with a median interval between vaccination and delivery of 92 days (95% CI 48–134). At delivery, the proportion of women with seroprotection (HI antibodies titers against A/H1N1 2009 influenza of 1∶40 or greater) was 69.9% in vaccinated women. Of the 422 non-vaccinated women with serological data, 11 (2.6%; 95%CI: 1.3–4.6) had laboratory documented A/H1N1 2009 influenza (1 with positive PCR and 10 with serological seroconversion). None of the 877 study’s women was hospitalized for flu. No difference on pregnancy outcomes was evidenced between vaccinated women, non-vaccinated women without seroconversion and non-vaccinated women with flu.

Conclusion

Despite low vaccine coverage, incidence of pandemic flu was low in this cohort of pregnant women.No effect on pregnancy and delivery outcomes was evidenced after vaccination.     

Mortality Burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 Influenza Pandemic in France: Comparison to Seasonal Influenza and the A/H3N2 Pandemic

Background

The mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic remains unclear in many countries due to delays in reporting of death statistics. We estimate the age- and cause-specific excess mortality impact of the pandemic in France, relative to that of other countries and past epidemic and pandemic seasons.

Methods

We applied Serfling and Poisson excess mortality approaches to model weekly age- and cause-specific mortality rates from June 1969 through May 2010 in France. Indicators of influenza activity, time trends, and seasonal terms were included in the models. We also reviewed the literature for country-specific estimates of 2009 pandemic excess mortality rates to characterize geographical differences in the burden of this pandemic.

Results

The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic was associated with 1.0 (95% Confidence Intervals (CI) 0.2–1.9) excess respiratory deaths per 100,000 population in France, compared to rates per 100,000 of 44 (95% CI 43–45) for the A/H3N2 pandemic and 2.9 (95% CI 2.3–3.7) for average inter-pandemic seasons. The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic had a 10.6-fold higher impact than inter-pandemic seasons in people aged 5–24 years and 3.8-fold lower impact among people over 65 years.

Conclusions

The 2009 pandemic in France had low mortality impact in most age groups, relative to past influenza seasons, except in school-age children and young adults. The historical A/H3N2 pandemic was associated with much larger mortality impact than the 2009 pandemic, across all age groups and outcomes. Our 2009 pandemic excess mortality estimates for France fall within the range of previous estimates for high-income regions. Based on the analysis of several mortality outcomes and comparison with laboratory-confirmed 2009/H1N1 deaths, we conclude that cardio-respiratory and all-cause mortality lack precision to accurately measure the impact of this pandemic in high-income settings and that use of more specific mortality outcomes is important to obtain reliable age-specific estimates.     

Prevalence of Seropositivity to Pandemic Influenza A/H1N1 Virus in the United States following the 2009 Pandemic

Background

2009 pandemic influenza A/H1N1 (A(H1N1)pdm09) was first detected in the United States in April 2009 and resulted in a global pandemic. We conducted a serologic survey to estimate the cumulative incidence of A(H1N1)pdm09 through the end of 2009 when pandemic activity had waned in the United States.

Methods

We conducted a pair of cross sectional serologic surveys before and after the spring/fall waves of the pandemic for evidence of seropositivity (titer ≥40) using the hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay. We tested a baseline sample of 1,142 serum specimens from the 2007–2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), and 2,759 serum specimens submitted for routine screening to clinical diagnostic laboratories from ten representative sites.

Results

The age-adjusted prevalence of seropositivity to A(H1N1)pdm09 by year-end 2009 was 36.9% (95%CI: 31.7–42.2%). After adjusting for baseline cross-reactive antibody, pandemic vaccination coverage and the sensitivity/specificity of the HI assay, we estimate that 20.2% (95%CI: 10.1–28.3%) of the population was infected with A(H1N1)pdm09 by December 2009, including 53.3% (95%CI: 39.0–67.1%) of children aged 5–17 years.

Conclusions

By December 2009, approximately one-fifth of the US population, or 61.9 million persons, may have been infected with A(H1N1)pdm09, including around half of school-aged children.     

Public Hygiene Campaign in Denmark during the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Had No Effect on Hospitalization Rate of Communicable Diseases in Children

Background

During the 2009 H1N1 pandemic the Danish National board of Health carried out massive public hygiene campaigns to limit spread of disease. We aimed to investigate whether this resulted in lower incidences of communicable diseases in the paediatric population.

Methods

The study compared annual hospitalization rates for childhood infections from 2005 to 2011.

Results

Admission rates for infections were higher during the year of the pandemic compared to the rest of the period.

Conclusion

There were no indications of a preventive effect by the hygiene campaign on incidence of severe common childhood infections.     

Experiences of General Practitioners and Practice Assistants during the Influenza A(H1N1) Pandemic in the Netherlands: A Cross-Sectional Survey

Objectives

Since few pandemics have occurred since the Spanish influenza pandemic, we should learn from every (mild) pandemic that occurs. The objective of this study was to report on general practitioners’ and practice assistants’ acceptance of the chosen national policy, and experiences in the Netherlands during the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic.

Methods

Data on experience and acceptance of the chosen national policy were obtained by structured questionnaires for general practitioners (n = 372) and practice assistants (n = 503) in April 2010.

Results

The primary policy chosen for general practice was not always accepted and complied with by general practitioners, although the communication (of changes) and collaboration with involved organisations were rated as positive. In particular, the advised personal protective measures were difficult to implement in daily work and thus not executed by 44% of general practitioners. Half of the general practitioners were not satisfied with the patient information provided by the government. The influenza A(H1N1) pandemic highly impacted on general practitioners’ and practice assistants’ workloads, which was not always deemed to be adequately compensated.

Discussion

Involvement of general practitioners in future infectious disease outbreaks is essential. This study addresses issues in the pandemic policy which might be critical in a more severe pandemic.     

Epidemiological and Virological Characteristics of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) School Outbreaks in China in 2009

Background

During the 2009 pandemic influenza H1N1 (2009) virus (pH1N1) outbreak, school students were at an increased risk of infection by the pH1N1 virus. However, the estimation of the attack rate showed significant variability.

Methods

Two school outbreaks were investigated in this study. A questionnaire was designed to collect information by interview. Throat samples were collected from all the subjects in this study 6 times and sero samples 3 times to confirm the infection and to determine viral shedding. Data analysis was performed using the software STATA 9.0.

Findings

The attack rate of the pH1N1 outbreak was 58.3% for the primary school, and 52.9% for the middle school. The asymptomatic infection rates of the two schools were 35.8% and 37.6% respectively. Peak virus shedding occurred on the day of ARI symptoms onset, followed by a steady decrease over subsequent days (p = 0.026). No difference was found either in viral shedding or HI titer between the symptomatic and the asymptomatic infectious groups.

Conclusions

School children were found to be at a high risk of infection by the novel virus. This may be because of a heightened risk of transmission owing to increased mixing at boarding school, or a lack of immunity owing to socio-economic status. We conclude that asymptomatically infectious cases may play an important role in transmission of the pH1N1 virus.     

Estimated cumulative incidence of pandemic (H1N1) influenza among pregnant women during the first wave of the 2009 pandemic

Background

Hospitalization and lab confirmed cases of H1N1 have been reported during the first wave of the 2009 pandemic but these are not accurate measures of influenza incidence in the population. We estimated the cumulative incidence of pandemic (H1N1) influenza among pregnant women in the province of Manitoba during the first wave of the 2009 pandemic.

Methods

Two panels of stored frozen serum specimens collected for routine prenatal screening were randomly selected for testing before (March 2009, n = 252) and after (August 2009, n = 296) the first wave of the pandemic. A standard hemagglutination inhibition assay was used to detect the presence of IgG antibodies against the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus. The cumulative incidence of pandemic (H1N1) influenza was calculated as the difference between the point prevalence rates in the first and second panels.

Results

Of the specimens collected in March, 7.1% were positive for the IgG antibodies (serum antibody titre ≥ 1:40). The corresponding prevalence was 15.7% among the specimens collected in August. The difference indicated a cumulative incidence of 8.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.2%–13.7%). The rate differed geographically, the highest being in the northern regions (20.8%, 95% CI 7.9%–31.8%), as compared with 4.0% (95% CI 0.0%–11.9%) in Winnipeg and 8.9% (95% CI 0.0%–18.8%) in the rest of the province.

Interpretation

We estimated that the cumulative incidence of pandemic (H1N1) influenza among pregnant women in Manitoba during the first wave of the 2009 pandemic was 8.6%. It was 20.8% in the northern regions of the province.During the first wave of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009, the province of Manitoba was more severely affected than almost any other Canadian province.¹ Pregnant women in particular had higher rates of laboratory-confirmed infection and of severe illness.² However, the number of laboratory-confirmed cases is not an accurate measure of the incidence of influenza in the population. The number and geographic distribution of confirmed cases are influenced by differences in access to medical care, physicians’ practices and other factors.³We estimated the cumulative incidence of pandemic (H1N1) influenza among pregnant women in the province of Manitoba during the first wave of the 2009 pandemic. We did this by measuring the point seroprevalence in random samples of pregnant women presenting for routine prenatal screening before and after the first wave.     

Molecular Epidemiology and Complete Genome Characterization of H1N1pdm Virus from India

Background

Influenza A virus is one of world’s major uncontrolled pathogen, causing seasonal epidemic as well as global pandemic. This was evidenced by recent emergence and continued prevalent 2009 swine origin pandemic H1N1 Influenza A virus, provoking first true pandemic in the past 40 years. In the course of its evolution, the virus acquired many mutations and multiple unidentified molecular determinants are likely responsible for the ability of the 2009 H1N1 virus to cause increased disease severity in humans. Availability of limited data on complete genome hampers the continuous monitoring of this type of events. Outbreaks with considerable morbidity and mortality have been reported from all parts of the country.

Methods/Results

Considering a large number of clinical cases of infection complete genome based sequence characterization of Indian H1N1pdm virus and their phylogenetic analysis with respect to circulating global viruses was undertaken, to reveal the phylodynamic pattern of H1N1pdm virus in India from 2009–2011. The Clade VII was observed as a major circulating clade in phylogenetic analysis. Selection pressure analysis revealed 18 positively selected sites in major surface proteins of H1N1pdm virus.

Conclusions

This study clearly revealed that clade VII has been identified as recent circulating clade in India as well globally. Few clade VII specific well identified markers undergone positive selection during virus evolution. Continuous monitoring of the H1N1pdm virus is warranted to track of the virus evolution and further transmission. This study will serve as a baseline data for future surveillance and also for development of suitable therapeutics.     

Assessment of Local Public Health Workers' Willingness to Respond to Pandemic Influenza through Application of the Extended Parallel Process Model

Background

Local public health agencies play a central role in response to an influenza pandemic, and understanding the willingness of their employees to report to work is therefore a critically relevant concern for pandemic influenza planning efforts. Witte''s Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM) has been found useful for understanding adaptive behavior in the face of unknown risk, and thus offers a framework for examining scenario-specific willingness to respond among local public health workers. We thus aim to use the EPPM as a lens for examining the influences of perceived threat and efficacy on local public health workers'' response willingness to pandemic influenza.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We administered an online, EPPM-based survey about attitudes/beliefs toward emergency response (Johns Hopkins∼Public Health Infrastructure Response Survey Tool), to local public health employees in three states between November 2006 – December 2007. A total of 1835 responses were collected for an overall response rate of 83%. With some regional variation, overall 16% of the workers in 2006-7 were not willing to “respond to a pandemic flu emergency regardless of its severity”. Local health department employees with a perception of high threat and high efficacy – i.e., those fitting a ‘concerned and confident’ profile in the EPPM analysis – had the highest declared rates of willingness to respond to an influenza pandemic if required by their agency, which was 31.7 times higher than those fitting a ‘low threat/low efficacy’ EPPM profile.

Conclusions/Significance

In the context of pandemic influenza planning, the EPPM provides a useful framework to inform nuanced understanding of baseline levels of – and gaps in – local public health workers'' response willingness. Within local health departments, ‘concerned and confident’ employees are most likely to be willing to respond. This finding may allow public health agencies to design, implement, and evaluate training programs focused on emergency response attitudes in health departments.     

Pandemic Influenza (H1N1) 2009 Pneumonia: CURB-65 Score for Predicting Severity and Nasopharyngeal Sampling for Diagnosis Are Unreliable

Background

From the first case reports of pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 it was clear that a significant proportion of infected individuals suffered a primary viral pneumonia. The objective of this study was twofold; to assess the utility of the CURB-65 community acquired pneumonia (CAP) severity index in predicting pneumonia severity and ICU admission, and to assess the relative sensitivity of nasopharyngeal versus lower respiratory tract sampling for the detection of pandemic influenza (H1N1) CAP.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study of 70 patients hospitalised for pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 in an adult tertiary referral hospital. Characteristics evaluated included age, pregnancy status, sex, respiratory signs and symptoms, smoking and alcohol history, CURB-65 score, co-morbidities, disabling sequelae, length of stay and in-hospital mortality outcomes. Laboratory features evaluated included lymphocyte count, C-reactive protein (CRP), nasopharyngeal and lower respiratory tract pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 PCR results.

Results

Patients with pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza CAP differed significantly from those without pneumonia regarding length of stay, need for ICU admission, CRP and the likelihood of disabling sequelae. The CURB-65 score did not predict CAP severity or the need for ICU admission (only 2/11 patients admitted to ICU had CURB-65 scores of 2 or 3). Nasopharyngeal specimens for PCR were only 62.9% sensitive in CAP patients compared to 97.8% sensitivity for lower respiratory tract specimens.

Conclusions

The CURB-65 score does not predict severe pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 CAP or need for ICU admission. Lower respiratory tract specimens should be collected when pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza CAP is suspected.     

Effect of the H1N1 influenza pandemic on the incidence of epidemic keratoconjunctivitis and on hygiene behavior: a cross-sectional study

Background

EKC is transmitted chiefly by direct hand contact. It is suspected that the 2009/2010 influenza pandemic influenced hand washing. This study aims to examine the relationship between the 2009/2010 H1N1 influenza pandemic and hygiene behavior.

Methods

We compared the EKC prevalence trends before, during and after the 2009/2010 influenza pandemic by using a t-test comparison of EKC sentinel surveillance.

Results

During the pre-pandemic period, the incidence of EKC increased from the 21st to the 44th week each year. However, during the pandemic period in 2009, there was no epidemic peak. In the post-pandemic period, the epidemic curve was similar to that in the pre-pandemic period. Compared to the pre-pandemic period, the total number of EKC patients during the pandemic period showed a decrease of 44.9% (t value = −7.23, p = 0.002). Comparing the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods by age group, we found there to be a significant decrease in the number of EKC patients for all age groups (−4.12≤t value≤−7.23, all P<0.05). This finding was most evident in the teenage group (62%) compared to the other age groups (decreases of 29 to 44%).

Conclusions

A continuing effort should be made to educate the public on basic infection prevention behaviors in the aftermath of the pandemic, particularly to teenagers.     

Effective Detection of the 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic in U.S. Veterans Affairs Medical Centers Using a National Electronic Biosurveillance System

Background

The 2008–09 influenza season was the time in which the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) utilized an electronic biosurveillance system for tracking and monitoring of influenza trends. The system, known as ESSENCE or Electronic Surveillance System for the Early Notification of Community-based Epidemics, was monitored for the influenza season as well as for a rise in influenza cases at the start of the H1N1 2009 influenza pandemic. We also describe trends noted in influenza-like illness (ILI) outpatient encounter data in VA medical centers during the 2008–09 influenza season, before and after the recognition of pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza virus.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We determined prevalence of ILI coded visits using VA''s ESSENCE for 2008–09 seasonal influenza (Sept. 28, 2008–April 25, 2009 corresponding to CDC 2008–2009 flu season weeks 40–16) and the early period of pandemic H1N1 2009 (April 26, 2009–July 31, 2009 corresponding to CDC 2008–2009 flu season weeks 17–30). Differences in diagnostic ICD-9-CM code frequencies were analyzed using Chi-square and odds ratios. There were 649,574 ILI encounters captured representing 633,893 patients. The prevalence of VA ILI visits mirrored the CDC''s Outpatient ILI Surveillance Network (ILINet) data with peaks in late December, early February, and late April/early May, mirroring the ILINet data; however, the peaks seen in the VA were smaller. Of 31 ILI codes, 6 decreased and 11 increased significantly during the early period of pandemic H1N1 2009. The ILI codes that significantly increased were more likely to be symptom codes. Although influenza with respiratory manifestation (487.1) was the most common code used among 150 confirmed pandemic H1N1 2009 cases, overall it significantly decreased since the start of the pandemic.

Conclusions/Significance

VA ESSENCE effectively detected and tracked changing ILI trends during pandemic H1N1 2009 and represents an important temporal alerting system for monitoring health events in VA facilities.     

Characteristics of Hospitalized Cases with Influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 Infection during First Winter Season of Post-Pandemic in China

Background

Influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 (2009 H1N1) re-circulated as the predominant virus from January through February 2011 in China. National surveillance of 2009 H1N1 as a notifiable disease was maintained to monitor potential changes in disease severity from the previous season.

Methodology/Principal Findings

To describe the characteristics of hospitalized cases with 2009 H1N1 infection and analyze risk factors for severe illness during the 2010–2011winter season in China, we obtained surveillance data from hospitalized cases with 2009 H1N1 infection from November 2010 through May 2011, and reviewed medical records from 701 hospitalized cases. Age-standardized risk ratios were used to compare the age distribution of patients that were hospitalized and died due to 2009 H1N1 between the 2010–2011winter season to those during the 2009–2010 pandemic period. During the 2010–2011 winter season, children less than 5 years of age had the highest relative risk of hospitalization and death, followed by adults aged 65 years or older. Additionally, the relative risk of hospitalized cases aged 5–14 and 15–24 years was lower compared to children less than 5 years of age. During the winter season of 2010–2011, the proportions of adults aged 25 years or older for hospitalization and death were significantly higher than those during the 2009–2010 pandemic period. Being male, having a chronic medical condition, delayed hospital admission (≥3 days from onset) or delayed initiation of antiviral treatment (≥5 days from onset) were associated with severe illness among non-pregnant patients ≥2 years of age.

Conclusions/Significance

We observed a change in high risk groups for hospitalization for 2009 H1N1 during the winter months immediately following the pandemic period compared to the high risk groups identified during the pandemic period. Our nationally notifiable disease surveillance system enabled us to understand the evolving epidemiology of 2009 H1N1 infection after the pandemic period.     

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza Community Transmission Was Established in One Australian State When the Virus Was First Identified in North America

Background

In mid-June 2009 the State of Victoria in Australia appeared to have the highest notification rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza in the world. We hypothesise that this was because community transmission of pandemic influenza was already well established in Victoria at the time testing for the novel virus commenced. In contrast, this was not true for the pandemic in other parts of Australia, including Western Australia (WA).

Methods

We used data from detailed case follow-up of patients with confirmed infection in Victoria and WA to demonstrate the difference in the pandemic curve in two Australian states on opposite sides of the continent. We modelled the pandemic in both states, using a susceptible-infected-removed model with Bayesian inference accounting for imported cases.

Results

Epidemic transmission occurred earlier in Victoria and later in WA. Only 5% of the first 100 Victorian cases were not locally acquired and three of these were brothers in one family. By contrast, 53% of the first 102 cases in WA were associated with importation from Victoria. Using plausible model input data, estimation of the effective reproductive number for the Victorian epidemic required us to invoke an earlier date for commencement of transmission to explain the observed data. This was not required in modelling the epidemic in WA.

Conclusion

Strong circumstantial evidence, supported by modelling, suggests community transmission of pandemic influenza was well established in Victoria, but not in WA, at the time testing for the novel virus commenced in Australia. The virus is likely to have entered Victoria and already become established around the time it was first identified in the US and Mexico.     

Did Advances in Global Surveillance and Notification Systems Make a Difference in the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic?–A Retrospective Analysis

Background

The 2009 H1N1 outbreak provides an opportunity to identify strengths and weaknesses of disease surveillance and notification systems that have been implemented in the past decade.

Methods

Drawing on a systematic review of the scientific literature, official documents, websites, and news reports, we constructed a timeline differentiating three kinds of events: (1) the emergence and spread of the pH1N1 virus, (2) local health officials’ awareness and understanding of the outbreak, and (3) notifications about the events and their implications. We then conducted a “critical event” analysis of the surveillance process to ascertain when health officials became aware of the epidemiologic facts of the unfolding pandemic and whether advances in surveillance notification systems hastened detection.

Results

This analysis revealed three critical events. First, medical personnel identified pH1N1in California children because of an experimental surveillance program, leading to a novel viral strain being identified by CDC. Second, Mexican officials recognized that unconnected outbreaks represented a single phenomenon. Finally, the identification of a pH1N1 outbreak in a New York City high school was hastened by awareness of the emerging pandemic. Analysis of the timeline suggests that at best the global response could have been about one week earlier (which would not have stopped spread to other countries), and could have been much later.

Conclusions

This analysis shows that investments in global surveillance and notification systems made an important difference in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. In particular, enhanced laboratory capacity in the U.S. and Canada led to earlier detection and characterization of the 2009 H1N1. This includes enhanced capacity at the federal, state, and local levels in the U.S., as well as a trilateral agreement enabling collaboration among U.S., Canada, and Mexico. In addition, improved global notification systems contributed by helping health officials understand the relevance and importance of their own information.     

Induction of Long-Term Protective Immune Responses by Influenza H5N1 Virus-Like Particles

Background

Recurrent outbreaks of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus pose a threat of eventually causing a pandemic. Early vaccination of the population would be the single most effective measure for the control of an emerging influenza pandemic.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Influenza virus-like particles (VLPs) produced in insect cell-culture substrates do not depend on the availability of fertile eggs for vaccine manufacturing. We produced VLPs containing influenza A/Viet Nam1203/04 (H5N1) hemagglutinin, neuraminidase, and matrix proteins, and investigated their preclinical immunogenicity and protective efficacy. Mice immunized intranasally with H5N1 VLPs developed high levels of H5N1 specific antibodies and were 100% protected against a high dose of homologous H5N1 virus infection at 30 weeks after immunization. Protection is likely to be correlated with humoral and cellular immunologic memory at systemic and mucosal sites as evidenced by rapid anamnestic responses to re-stimulation with viral antigen in vivo and in vitro.

Conclusions/Significance

These results provide support for clinical evaluation of H5N1 VLP vaccination as a public health intervention to mitigate a possible pandemic of H5N1 influenza.     

Genetic diversity of the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) viruses in Finland

Background

In Finland, the first infections caused by the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) virus were identified on May 10. During the next three months almost all infections were found from patients who had recently traveled abroad. In September 2009 the pandemic virus started to spread in the general population, leading to localized outbreaks and peak epidemic activity was reached during weeks 43–48.

Methods/Results

The nucleotide sequences of the hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) genes from viruses collected from 138 patients were determined. The analyzed viruses represented mild and severe infections and different geographic regions and time periods. Based on HA and NA gene sequences, the Finnish pandemic viruses clustered in four groups. Finnish epidemic viruses and A/California/07/2009 vaccine virus strain varied from 2–8 and 0–5 amino acids in HA and NA molecules, respectively, giving a respective maximal evolution speed of 1.4% and 1.1%. Most amino acid changes in HA and NA molecules accumulated on the surface of the molecule and were partly located in antigenic sites. Three severe infections were detected with a mutation at HA residue 222, in two viruses with a change D222G, and in one virus D222Y. Also viruses with change D222E were identified. All Finnish pandemic viruses were sensitive to oseltamivir having the amino acid histidine at residue 275 of the neuraminidase molecule.

Conclusions

The Finnish pandemic viruses were quite closely related to A/California/07/2009 vaccine virus. Neither in the HA nor in the NA were changes identified that may lead to the selection of a virus with increased epidemic potential or exceptionally high virulence. Continued laboratory-based surveillance of the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) is important in order to rapidly identify drug resistant viruses and/or virus variants with potential ability to cause severe forms of infection and an ability to circumvent vaccine-induced immunity.