Detecting Causality by Combined Use of Multiple Methods: Climate and Brain Examples

Identifying causal relations from time series is the first step to understanding the behavior of complex systems. Although many methods have been proposed, few papers have applied multiple methods together to detect causal relations based on time series generated from coupled nonlinear systems with some unobserved parts. Here we propose the combined use of three methods and a majority vote to infer causality under such circumstances. Two of these methods are proposed here for the first time, and all of the three methods can be applied even if the underlying dynamics is nonlinear and there are hidden common causes. We test our methods with coupled logistic maps, coupled Rössler models, and coupled Lorenz models. In addition, we show from ice core data how the causal relations among the temperature, the CH₄ level, and the CO₂ level in the atmosphere changed in the last 800,000 years, a conclusion also supported by irregularly sampled data analysis. Moreover, these methods show how three regions of the brain interact with each other during the visually cued, two-choice arm reaching task. Especially, we demonstrate that this is due to bottom up influences at the beginning of the task, while there exist mutual influences between the posterior medial prefrontal cortex and the presupplementary motor area. Based on our results, we conclude that identifying causality with an appropriate ensemble of multiple methods ensures the validity of the obtained results more firmly.     

Inference of scale-free networks from gene expression time series

Quantitative time-series observation of gene expression is becoming possible, for example by cell array technology. However, there are no practical methods with which to infer network structures using only observed time-series data. As most computational models of biological networks for continuous time-series data have a high degree of freedom, it is almost impossible to infer the correct structures. On the other hand, it has been reported that some kinds of biological networks, such as gene networks and metabolic pathways, may have scale-free properties. We hypothesize that the architecture of inferred biological network models can be restricted to scale-free networks. We developed an inference algorithm for biological networks using only time-series data by introducing such a restriction. We adopt the S-system as the network model, and a distributed genetic algorithm to optimize models to fit its simulated results to observed time series data. We have tested our algorithm on a case study (simulated data). We compared optimization under no restriction, which allows for a fully connected network, and under the restriction that the total number of links must equal that expected from a scale free network. The restriction reduced both false positive and false negative estimation of the links and also the differences between model simulation and the given time-series data.     

How Difficult Is Inference of Mammalian Causal Gene Regulatory Networks?

Gene regulatory networks (GRNs) play a central role in systems biology, especially in the study of mammalian organ development. One key question remains largely unanswered: Is it possible to infer mammalian causal GRNs using observable gene co-expression patterns alone? We assembled two mouse GRN datasets (embryonic tooth and heart) and matching microarray gene expression profiles to systematically investigate the difficulties of mammalian causal GRN inference. The GRNs were assembled based on pieces of experimental genetic perturbation evidence from manually reading primary research articles. Each piece of perturbation evidence records the qualitative change of the expression of one gene following knock-down or over-expression of another gene. Our data have thorough annotation of tissue types and embryonic stages, as well as the type of regulation (activation, inhibition and no effect), which uniquely allows us to estimate both sensitivity and specificity of the inference of tissue specific causal GRN edges. Using these unprecedented datasets, we found that gene co-expression does not reliably distinguish true positive from false positive interactions, making inference of GRN in mammalian development very difficult. Nonetheless, if we have expression profiling data from genetic or molecular perturbation experiments, such as gene knock-out or signalling stimulation, it is possible to use the set of differentially expressed genes to recover causal regulatory relationships with good sensitivity and specificity. Our result supports the importance of using perturbation experimental data in causal network reconstruction. Furthermore, we showed that causal gene regulatory relationship can be highly cell type or developmental stage specific, suggesting the importance of employing expression profiles from homogeneous cell populations. This study provides essential datasets and empirical evidence to guide the development of new GRN inference methods for mammalian organ development.     

Integrating heterogeneous gene expression data for gene regulatory network modelling

Gene regulatory networks (GRNs) are complex biological systems that have a large impact on protein levels, so that discovering network interactions is a major objective of systems biology. Quantitative GRN models have been inferred, to date, from time series measurements of gene expression, but at small scale, and with limited application to real data. Time series experiments are typically short (number of time points of the order of ten), whereas regulatory networks can be very large (containing hundreds of genes). This creates an under-determination problem, which negatively influences the results of any inferential algorithm. Presented here is an integrative approach to model inference, which has not been previously discussed to the authors' knowledge. Multiple heterogeneous expression time series are used to infer the same model, and results are shown to be more robust to noise and parameter perturbation. Additionally, a wavelet analysis shows that these models display limited noise over-fitting within the individual datasets.     

A Markov-blanket-based model for gene regulatory network inference

An efficient two-step Markov blanket method for modeling and inferring complex regulatory networks from large-scale microarray data sets is presented. The inferred gene regulatory network (GRN) is based on the time series gene expression data capturing the underlying gene interactions. For constructing a highly accurate GRN, the proposed method performs: 1) discovery of a gene's Markov Blanket (MB), 2) formulation of a flexible measure to determine the network's quality, 3) efficient searching with the aid of a guided genetic algorithm, and 4) pruning to obtain a minimal set of correct interactions. Investigations are carried out using both synthetic as well as yeast cell cycle gene expression data sets. The realistic synthetic data sets validate the robustness of the method by varying topology, sample size, time delay, noise, vertex in-degree, and the presence of hidden nodes. It is shown that the proposed approach has excellent inferential capabilities and high accuracy even in the presence of noise. The gene network inferred from yeast cell cycle data is investigated for its biological relevance using well-known interactions, sequence analysis, motif patterns, and GO data. Further, novel interactions are predicted for the unknown genes of the network and their influence on other genes is also discussed.     

Dynamic modeling of gene expression in prokaryotes: application to glucose-lactose diauxie in Escherichia coli

Coexpression of genes or, more generally, similarity in the expression profiles poses an unsurmountable obstacle to inferring the gene regulatory network (GRN) based solely on data from DNA microarray time series. Clustering of genes with similar expression profiles allows for a course-grained view of the GRN and a probabilistic determination of the connectivity among the clusters. We present a model for the temporal evolution of a gene cluster network which takes into account interactions of gene products with genes and, through a non-constant degradation rate, with other gene products. The number of model parameters is reduced by using polynomial functions to interpolate temporal data points. In this manner, the task of parameter estimation is reduced to a system of linear algebraic equations, thus making the computation time shorter by orders of magnitude. To eliminate irrelevant networks, we test each GRN for stability with respect to parameter variations, and impose restrictions on its behavior near the steady state. We apply our model and methods to DNA microarray time series' data collected on Escherichia coli during glucose-lactose diauxie and infer the most probable cluster network for different phases of the experiment. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s11693-011-9079-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

IQCELL: A platform for predicting the effect of gene perturbations on developmental trajectories using single-cell RNA-seq data

The increasing availability of single-cell RNA-sequencing (scRNA-seq) data from various developmental systems provides the opportunity to infer gene regulatory networks (GRNs) directly from data. Herein we describe IQCELL, a platform to infer, simulate, and study executable logical GRNs directly from scRNA-seq data. Such executable GRNs allow simulation of fundamental hypotheses governing developmental programs and help accelerate the design of strategies to control stem cell fate. We first describe the architecture of IQCELL. Next, we apply IQCELL to scRNA-seq datasets from early mouse T-cell and red blood cell development, and show that the platform can infer overall over 74% of causal gene interactions previously reported from decades of research. We will also show that dynamic simulations of the generated GRN qualitatively recapitulate the effects of known gene perturbations. Finally, we implement an IQCELL gene selection pipeline that allows us to identify candidate genes, without prior knowledge. We demonstrate that GRN simulations based on the inferred set yield results similar to the original curated lists. In summary, the IQCELL platform offers a versatile tool to infer, simulate, and study executable GRNs in dynamic biological systems.     

Granger mediation analysis of multiple time series with an application to functional magnetic resonance imaging

This paper presents Granger mediation analysis, a new framework for causal mediation analysis of multiple time series. This framework is motivated by a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) experiment where we are interested in estimating the mediation effects between a randomized stimulus time series and brain activity time series from two brain regions. The independent observation assumption is thus unrealistic for this type of time‐series data. To address this challenge, our framework integrates two types of models: causal mediation analysis across the mediation variables, and vector autoregressive (VAR) models across the temporal observations. We use “Granger” to refer to VAR correlations modeled in this paper. We further extend this framework to handle multilevel data, in order to model individual variability and correlated errors between the mediator and the outcome variables. Using Rubin's potential outcome framework, we show that the causal mediation effects are identifiable under our time‐series model. We further develop computationally efficient algorithms to maximize our likelihood‐based estimation criteria. Simulation studies show that our method reduces the estimation bias and improves statistical power, compared with existing approaches. On a real fMRI data set, our approach quantifies the causal effects through a brain pathway, while capturing the dynamic dependence between two brain regions.     

Gene regulatory network modeling via global optimization of high-order dynamic Bayesian network

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) is among the mainstream approaches for modeling various biological networks, including the gene regulatory network (GRN). Most current methods for learning DBN employ either local search such as hill-climbing, or a meta stochastic global optimization framework such as genetic algorithm or simulated annealing, which are only able to locate sub-optimal solutions. Further, current DBN applications have essentially been limited to small sized networks. RESULTS: To overcome the above difficulties, we introduce here a deterministic global optimization based DBN approach for reverse engineering genetic networks from time course gene expression data. For such DBN models that consist only of inter time slice arcs, we show that there exists a polynomial time algorithm for learning the globally optimal network structure. The proposed approach, named GlobalMIT+, employs the recently proposed information theoretic scoring metric named mutual information test (MIT). GlobalMIT+ is able to learn high-order time delayed genetic interactions, which are common to most biological systems. Evaluation of the approach using both synthetic and real data sets, including a 733 cyanobacterial gene expression data set, shows significantly improved performance over other techniques. CONCLUSIONS: Our studies demonstrate that deterministic global optimization approaches can infer large scale genetic networks.     

Joint Analysis of Survival Time and Longitudinal Categorical Outcomes

In biomedical or public health research, it is common for both survival time and longitudinal categorical outcomes to be collected for a subject, along with the subject’s characteristics or risk factors. Investigators are often interested in finding important variables for predicting both survival time and longitudinal outcomes which could be correlated within the same subject. Existing approaches for such joint analyses deal with continuous longitudinal outcomes. New statistical methods need to be developed for categorical longitudinal outcomes. We propose to simultaneously model the survival time with a stratified Cox proportional hazards model and the longitudinal categorical outcomes with a generalized linear mixed model. Random effects are introduced to account for the dependence between survival time and longitudinal outcomes due to unobserved factors. The Expectation–Maximization (EM) algorithm is used to derive the point estimates for the model parameters, and the observed information matrix is adopted to estimate their asymptotic variances. Asymptotic properties for our proposed maximum likelihood estimators are established using the theory of empirical processes. The method is demonstrated to perform well in finite samples via simulation studies. We illustrate our approach with data from the Carolina Head and Neck Cancer Study (CHANCE) and compare the results based on our simultaneous analysis and the separately conducted analyses using the generalized linear mixed model and the Cox proportional hazards model. Our proposed method identifies more predictors than by separate analyses.     

Graphical identifiability criteria for causal effects in studies with an unobserved treatment/response variable

We consider the problem of using data in studies with an unobservedtreatment/response variable in order to evaluate average causaleffects, when cause-effect relationships between variables canbe described by a directed acyclic graph and the correspondingrecursive factorization of a joint distribution. The paper proposesgraphical criteria to test whether average causal effects areidentifiable even if a treatment/response variable is unobserved.If the answer is affirmative, we provide further formulationsfor average causal effects from the observed data. The graphicalcriteria enable us to evaluate average causal effects when itis difficult to observe a treatment/response variable.     

Continuous representations of time-series gene expression data.

We present algorithms for time-series gene expression analysis that permit the principled estimation of unobserved time points, clustering, and dataset alignment. Each expression profile is modeled as a cubic spline (piecewise polynomial) that is estimated from the observed data and every time point influences the overall smooth expression curve. We constrain the spline coefficients of genes in the same class to have similar expression patterns, while also allowing for gene specific parameters. We show that unobserved time points can be reconstructed using our method with 10-15% less error when compared to previous best methods. Our clustering algorithm operates directly on the continuous representations of gene expression profiles, and we demonstrate that this is particularly effective when applied to nonuniformly sampled data. Our continuous alignment algorithm also avoids difficulties encountered by discrete approaches. In particular, our method allows for control of the number of degrees of freedom of the warp through the specification of parameterized functions, which helps to avoid overfitting. We demonstrate that our algorithm produces stable low-error alignments on real expression data and further show a specific application to yeast knock-out data that produces biologically meaningful results.     

A New Asynchronous Parallel Algorithm for Inferring Large-Scale Gene Regulatory Networks

The reconstruction of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from high-throughput experimental data has been considered one of the most important issues in systems biology research. With the development of high-throughput technology and the complexity of biological problems, we need to reconstruct GRNs that contain thousands of genes. However, when many existing algorithms are used to handle these large-scale problems, they will encounter two important issues: low accuracy and high computational cost. To overcome these difficulties, the main goal of this study is to design an effective parallel algorithm to infer large-scale GRNs based on high-performance parallel computing environments. In this study, we proposed a novel asynchronous parallel framework to improve the accuracy and lower the time complexity of large-scale GRN inference by combining splitting technology and ordinary differential equation (ODE)-based optimization. The presented algorithm uses the sparsity and modularity of GRNs to split whole large-scale GRNs into many small-scale modular subnetworks. Through the ODE-based optimization of all subnetworks in parallel and their asynchronous communications, we can easily obtain the parameters of the whole network. To test the performance of the proposed approach, we used well-known benchmark datasets from Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods challenge (DREAM), experimentally determined GRN of Escherichia coli and one published dataset that contains more than 10 thousand genes to compare the proposed approach with several popular algorithms on the same high-performance computing environments in terms of both accuracy and time complexity. The numerical results demonstrate that our parallel algorithm exhibits obvious superiority in inferring large-scale GRNs.