Respective Contribution of Chronic Conditions to Disability in France: Results from the National Disability-Health Survey

Background

Representative national data on disability are becoming increasingly important in helping policymakers decide on public health strategies. We assessed the respective contribution of chronic health conditions to disability for three age groups (18–40, 40–65, and >65 years old) using data from the 2008–2009 Disability-Health Survey in France.

Methods

Data on 12 chronic conditions and on disability for 24,682 adults living in households were extracted from the Disability-Health Survey results. A weighting factor was applied to obtain representative estimates for the French population. Disability was defined as at least one restriction in activities of daily living (ADL), severe disability as the inability to perform at least one ADL alone, and self-reported disability as a general feeling of being disabled. To account for co-morbidities, we assessed the contribution of each chronic disorder to disability by using the average attributable fraction (AAF).

Findings

We estimated that 38.8 million people in France (81.7% [95% CI 80.9;82.6]) had a chronic condition: 14.3% (14.0;14.6) considered themselves disabled, 4.6% (4.4;4.9) were restricted in ADL and 1.7% (1.5;1.8) were severely disabled. Musculoskeletal and sensorial impairments contributed the most to self-reported disability (AAF 15.4% and 12.3%). Neurological and musculoskeletal diseases had the largest impact on disability (AAF 17.4% and 16.4%, respectively). Neurological disorders contributed the most to severe disability (AAF 31.0%). Psychiatric diseases contributed the most to disability categories for patients 18–40 years old (AAFs 23.8%–40.3%). Cardiovascular conditions were also among the top four contributors to disability categories (AAFs 8.5%–11.1%).

Conclusions

Neurological, musculoskeletal, and cardiovascular chronic disorders mainly contribute to disability in France. Psychiatric impairments have a heavy burden for people 18–40 years old. These findings should help policymakers define priorities for health-service delivery in France and perhaps other developed countries.     

Age-Related Mortality Trends in Italy from 1901 to 2008

We stratified the Italian population according to age and gender in order to evaluate mortality trends over more than one century. Data covering the 1901–2008 period were used to study the yearly variations in mortality. Fluctuations in age-adjusted mortality curves were analyzed by Join Point Regression Models, identifying Join Points and Annual Percent Changes. A consistent decline in all-cause mortality occurred across the whole period, the most striking variations being observed in the 0–49 years population. In 1901, other and undefined diseases were the main causes of death, followed by infectious, digestive, and respiratory diseases in the 0–49 years population and by respiratory, cardiovascular, and cerebrovascular diseases in the ≥50 years population groups. In 2008 the main causes of death were accidents (males) and tumors (females) in the 0–49 age class, tumors in the 50–69 age class (both genders), and tumors (males) and cardiovascular diseases (females) in the elderly. The results highlight the interplay between age and gender in affecting mortality trends and reflect the dramatic progress in nutritional, lifestyle, socioeconomic, medical, and hygienic conditions.     

Mortality and Life Expectancy in Homeless Men and Women in Rotterdam: 2001–2010

Background

Data on mortality among homeless people are limited. Therefore, this study aimed to describe mortality patterns within a cohort of homeless adults in Rotterdam (the Netherlands) and to assess excess mortality as compared to the general population in that city.

Methods

Based on 10-year follow-up of homeless adults aged ≥ 20 years who visited services for homeless people in Rotterdam in 2001, and on vital statistics, we assessed the association of mortality with age, sex and type of service used (e.g. only day care, convalescence care, other) within the homeless cohort, and also compared mortality between the homeless and general population using Poisson regression. Life tables and decomposition methods were used to examine differences in life expectancy.

Results

During follow-up, of the 2096 adult homeless 265 died. Among the homeless, at age 30 years no significant sex differences were found in overall mortality rates and life expectancy. Compared with the general Rotterdam population, mortality rates were 3.5 times higher in the homeless cohort. Excess mortality was larger in women (rate ratio [RR] RR 5.56, 95% CI 3.95–7.82) as compared to men (RR 3.31, 95% CI 2.91–3.77), and decreased with age (RR 7.67, 95% CI 6.87–8.56 for the age group 20–44 and RR 1.63, 95% CI 1.41–1.88 for the age group 60+ years). Life expectancy at age 30 years was 11.0 (95% CI 9.1–12.9) and 15.9 (95% CI 10.3–21.5) years lower for homeless men and women compared to men and women in the general population respectively.

Conclusion

Homeless adults face excessive losses in life expectancy, with greatest disadvantages among homeless women and the younger age groups.     

Decelerating Mortality Rates in Older Ages and its Prospects through Lee-Carter Approach

The present study attempts to study the age pattern mortality and prospects through Lee-Carter approach. The objectives of the study are to examine the trend of mortality decline and life expectancy. Contemporaneously, we have projected life expectancy up to 2025, projecting ASDR using Lee-Carter method. Life table aging rate (LAR) used to estimate the rate of mortality deceleration. Overtime, LAR increased and during recent decade it remained more or less unchanged. By age, LAR significant increased in the oldest of old. The slope is steepest in the oldest of old in the recent decade. The rates of mortality increased in oldest of old as the age group is more vulnerable to chronic disease and vulnerable to identifiable risk factors for virtually every disease, marked by senility. The analysis revealed that the level of mortality is not declining but rate of acceleration is declining and is further expected to decline. By the year 2025, the age specific death rates for the age group 5–9 and 10–14 will go below one per thousand.Life expectancy will attained as high as 73 and 79 years for male and female and is further expected to increase linearly. 71 percent of total female birth and 57 percent of total male birth will survive up to age 70+. Also the findings revealed that mortality rate is declining with constant rate up to age 70 and thereafter, the mortality rate accelerates and this holds true for both sexes.     

Adult Mortality Attributable to Preventable Risk Factors for Non-Communicable Diseases and Injuries in Japan: A Comparative Risk Assessment

Background

The population of Japan has achieved the longest life expectancy in the world. To further improve population health, consistent and comparative evidence on mortality attributable to preventable risk factors is necessary for setting priorities for health policies and programs. Although several past studies have quantified the impact of individual risk factors in Japan, to our knowledge no study has assessed and compared the effects of multiple modifiable risk factors for non-communicable diseases and injuries using a standard framework. We estimated the effects of 16 risk factors on cause-specific deaths and life expectancy in Japan.

Methods and Findings

We obtained data on risk factor exposures from the National Health and Nutrition Survey and epidemiological studies, data on the number of cause-specific deaths from vital records adjusted for ill-defined codes, and data on relative risks from epidemiological studies and meta-analyses. We applied a comparative risk assessment framework to estimate effects of excess risks on deaths and life expectancy at age 40 y. In 2007, tobacco smoking and high blood pressure accounted for 129,000 deaths (95% CI: 115,000–154,000) and 104,000 deaths (95% CI: 86,000–119,000), respectively, followed by physical inactivity (52,000 deaths, 95% CI: 47,000–58,000), high blood glucose (34,000 deaths, 95% CI: 26,000–43,000), high dietary salt intake (34,000 deaths, 95% CI: 27,000–39,000), and alcohol use (31,000 deaths, 95% CI: 28,000–35,000). In recent decades, cancer mortality attributable to tobacco smoking has increased in the elderly, while stroke mortality attributable to high blood pressure has declined. Life expectancy at age 40 y in 2007 would have been extended by 1.4 y for both sexes (men, 95% CI: 1.3–1.6; women, 95% CI: 1.2–1.7) if exposures to multiple cardiovascular risk factors had been reduced to their optimal levels as determined by a theoretical-minimum-risk exposure distribution.

Conclusions

Tobacco smoking and high blood pressure are the two major risk factors for adult mortality from non-communicable diseases and injuries in Japan. There is a large potential population health gain if multiple risk factors are jointly controlled. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Malignant Lymphatic and Hematopoietic Neoplasms Mortality in Serbia, 1991–2010: A Joinpoint Regression Analysis

Background

Limited data on mortality from malignant lymphatic and hematopoietic neoplasms have been published for Serbia.

Methods

The study covered population of Serbia during the 1991–2010 period. Mortality trends were assessed using the joinpoint regression analysis.

Results

Trend for overall death rates from malignant lymphoid and haematopoietic neoplasms significantly decreased: by −2.16% per year from 1991 through 1998, and then significantly increased by +2.20% per year for the 1998–2010 period. The growth during the entire period was on average +0.8% per year (95% CI 0.3 to 1.3). Mortality was higher among males than among females in all age groups. According to the comparability test, mortality trends from malignant lymphoid and haematopoietic neoplasms in men and women were parallel (final selected model failed to reject parallelism, P = 0.232). Among younger Serbian population (0–44 years old) in both sexes: trends significantly declined in males for the entire period, while in females 15–44 years of age mortality rates significantly declined only from 2003 onwards. Mortality trend significantly increased in elderly in both genders (by +1.7% in males and +1.5% in females in the 60–69 age group, and +3.8% in males and +3.6% in females in the 70+ age group). According to the comparability test, mortality trend for Hodgkin''s lymphoma differed significantly from mortality trends for all other types of malignant lymphoid and haematopoietic neoplasms (P<0.05).

Conclusion

Unfavourable mortality trend in Serbia requires targeted intervention for risk factors control, early diagnosis and modern therapy.     

Health transition: examples from the western Pacific.

The Industrial Revolution ushered in a rapid transition from agriculture to industrialization. Some biological effects of this transition included increasing life expectancy, reduced infant mortality, and some decline in fertility. Reduced infant mortality first brought about an increase in life expectancy, but as humans were able to control infectious diseases, child and adult mortality also decreased. Now, accidents and chronic diseases are responsible for most mortality in many age groups. This shift from infectious diseases to accidents and chronic diseases is called the health transition. Japan and US are Pacific Basin countries which have relatively high life expectancy and low infant mortality (1988, 75.54 years vs. 71.38 years, and 4.4 vs. 9.9, respectively). These figures suggest that these countries rather advanced in the health transition. Japan may have better life expectancy than the US because of the effect of environmental factors, ethnic diversity, and health care differentials by social class on cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality. China and Thailand hold intermediate positions (67.98 years (1985-1990) vs. 63.82 years (1985-1986), and 32.4 vs. 39, respectively). Some research indicates that urban conditions and factory work increase the cardiovascular disease risk among the Chinese. Recent research suggests that access to immunization and modern medical care for acute disease are the only critical variables of the health transition rather than other variables. Papua New Guinea is not progressing very well (53.18 years and 58). Papua New Guinea has not yet been able to control infectious diseases, especially malaria. This comparison illustrates that populations progress through the health transition at different rates.     

Life Expectancies of South African Adults Starting Antiretroviral Treatment: Collaborative Analysis of Cohort Studies

Background

Few estimates exist of the life expectancy of HIV-positive adults receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART) in low- and middle-income countries. We aimed to estimate the life expectancy of patients starting ART in South Africa and compare it with that of HIV-negative adults.

Methods and Findings

Data were collected from six South African ART cohorts. Analysis was restricted to 37,740 HIV-positive adults starting ART for the first time. Estimates of mortality were obtained by linking patient records to the national population register. Relative survival models were used to estimate the excess mortality attributable to HIV by age, for different baseline CD4 categories and different durations. Non-HIV mortality was estimated using a South African demographic model. The average life expectancy of men starting ART varied between 27.6 y (95% CI: 25.2–30.2) at age 20 y and 10.1 y (95% CI: 9.3–10.8) at age 60 y, while estimates for women at the same ages were substantially higher, at 36.8 y (95% CI: 34.0–39.7) and 14.4 y (95% CI: 13.3–15.3), respectively. The life expectancy of a 20-y-old woman was 43.1 y (95% CI: 40.1–46.0) if her baseline CD4 count was ≥200 cells/µl, compared to 29.5 y (95% CI: 26.2–33.0) if her baseline CD4 count was <50 cells/µl. Life expectancies of patients with baseline CD4 counts ≥200 cells/µl were between 70% and 86% of those in HIV-negative adults of the same age and sex, and life expectancies were increased by 15%–20% in patients who had survived 2 y after starting ART. However, the analysis was limited by a lack of mortality data at longer durations.

Conclusions

South African HIV-positive adults can have a near-normal life expectancy, provided that they start ART before their CD4 count drops below 200 cells/µl. These findings demonstrate that the near-normal life expectancies of HIV-positive individuals receiving ART in high-income countries can apply to low- and middle-income countries as well. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Closing the Gap: Increases in Life Expectancy among Treated HIV-Positive Individuals in the United States and Canada

Background

Combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) has significantly increased survival among HIV-positive adults in the United States (U.S.) and Canada, but gains in life expectancy for this region have not been well characterized. We aim to estimate temporal changes in life expectancy among HIV-positive adults on ART from 2000–2007 in the U.S. and Canada.

Methods

Participants were from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD), aged ≥20 years and on ART. Mortality rates were calculated using participants'' person-time from January 1, 2000 or ART initiation until death, loss to follow-up, or administrative censoring December 31, 2007. Life expectancy at age 20, defined as the average number of additional years that a person of a specific age will live, provided the current age-specific mortality rates remain constant, was estimated using abridged life tables.

Results

The crude mortality rate was 19.8/1,000 person-years, among 22,937 individuals contributing 82,022 person-years and 1,622 deaths. Life expectancy increased from 36.1 [standard error (SE) 0.5] to 51.4 [SE 0.5] years from 2000–2002 to 2006–2007. Men and women had comparable life expectancies in all periods except the last (2006–2007). Life expectancy was lower for individuals with a history of injection drug use, non-whites, and in patients with baseline CD4 counts <350 cells/mm³.

Conclusions

A 20-year-old HIV-positive adult on ART in the U.S. or Canada is expected to live into their early 70 s, a life expectancy approaching that of the general population. Differences by sex, race, HIV transmission risk group, and CD4 count remain.     

Mortality among People with Severe Mental Disorders Who Reach Old Age: A Longitudinal Study of a Community-Representative Sample of 37892 Men

Background

Severe mental illnesses are leading causes of disability worldwide. Their prevalence declines with age, possibly due to premature death. It is unclear, however, if people with severe mental disorders who reach older age still have lower life expectancy compared with their peers and if their causes of death differ.

Methods and Findings

Cohort study of a community-representative sample of 37892 Australian men aged 65–85 years in 1996–1998. Follow up was censored on the 31st December 2010. Lifetime prevalence of schizophrenia spectrum, bipolar, depressive and alcohol-induced disorder was established through record linkage. A subsample of 12136 consented to a face-to-face assessment of sociodemographic, lifestyle and clinical variables. Information about causes of death was retrieved from the Australian Death Registry. The prevalence of schizophrenia spectrum, bipolar, depressive and alcohol-induced disorders was 1.2%, 0.3%, 2.5% and 1.8%. The mortality hazard for men with a severe mental disorder was 2.3 and their life expectancy was reduced by 3 years. Mortality rates increased with age, but the gap between men with and without severe mental disorders was not attenuated by age. Cardiovascular diseases and cancer were the most frequent causes of death. The excess mortality associated with severe mental disorders could not be explained by measured sociodemographic, lifestyle or clinical variables.

Conclusions

The excess mortality associated with severe mental disorders persists in later life, and the causes of death of younger and older people with severe mental disorders are similar. Hazardous lifestyle choices, suboptimal access to health care, poor compliance with treatments, and greater severity of medical comorbidities may all contribute to this increased mortality. Unlike young adults, most older people will visit their primary care physician at least once a year, offering health professionals an opportunity to intervene in order to minimise the harms associated with severe mental disorders.     

Contribution of Chronic Conditions to the Disability Burden across Smoking Categories in Middle-Aged Adults,Belgium

IntroductionSmoking is considered the single most important preventable cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, contributing to increased incidence and severity of disabling conditions. The aim of this study was to assess the contribution of chronic conditions to the disability burden across smoking categories in middle-aged adults in Belgium.MethodsData from 10,224 individuals aged 40 to 60 years who participated in the 1997, 2001, 2004, or 2008 Health Interview Surveys in Belgium were used. Smoking status was defined as never, former (cessation ≥2 years), former (cessation <2 years), occasional light (<20 cigarettes/day), daily light, and daily heavy (≥20 cigarettes/day). To attribute disability to chronic conditions, binomial additive hazards models were fitted separately for each smoking category adjusted for gender, except for former (cessation <2 years) and occasional light smokers due to the small sample size.ResultsAn increasing trend in the disability prevalence was observed across smoking categories in men (never = 4.8%, former (cessation ≥2 years) = 5.8%, daily light = 7.8%, daily heavy = 10.7%) and women (never = 7.6%, former (cessation ≥2 years) = 8.0%, daily light = 10.2%, daily heavy = 12.0%). Musculoskeletal conditions showed a substantial contribution to the disability burden in men and women across all smoking categories. Other important contributors were depression and cardiovascular diseases in never smokers; depression, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes in former smokers (cessation ≥2 years); chronic respiratory diseases, cancer, and cardiovascular diseases in daily light smokers; cardiovascular diseases and chronic respiratory diseases in men and depression and diabetes in women daily heavy smokers.ConclusionsBeyond the well-known effect of smoking on mortality, our findings showed an increasing trend of the disability prevalence and different contributors to the disability burden across smoking categories. This information can be useful from a public health perspective to define strategies to reduce disability in Belgium.     

Association between Class III Obesity (BMI of 40–59 kg/m2) and Mortality: A Pooled Analysis of 20 Prospective Studies

Background

The prevalence of class III obesity (body mass index [BMI]≥40 kg/m²) has increased dramatically in several countries and currently affects 6% of adults in the US, with uncertain impact on the risks of illness and death. Using data from a large pooled study, we evaluated the risk of death, overall and due to a wide range of causes, and years of life expectancy lost associated with class III obesity.

Methods and Findings

In a pooled analysis of 20 prospective studies from the United States, Sweden, and Australia, we estimated sex- and age-adjusted total and cause-specific mortality rates (deaths per 100,000 persons per year) and multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for adults, aged 19–83 y at baseline, classified as obese class III (BMI 40.0–59.9 kg/m²) compared with those classified as normal weight (BMI 18.5–24.9 kg/m²). Participants reporting ever smoking cigarettes or a history of chronic disease (heart disease, cancer, stroke, or emphysema) on baseline questionnaires were excluded. Among 9,564 class III obesity participants, mortality rates were 856.0 in men and 663.0 in women during the study period (1976–2009). Among 304,011 normal-weight participants, rates were 346.7 and 280.5 in men and women, respectively. Deaths from heart disease contributed largely to the excess rates in the class III obesity group (rate differences = 238.9 and 132.8 in men and women, respectively), followed by deaths from cancer (rate differences = 36.7 and 62.3 in men and women, respectively) and diabetes (rate differences = 51.2 and 29.2 in men and women, respectively). Within the class III obesity range, multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for total deaths and deaths due to heart disease, cancer, diabetes, nephritis/nephrotic syndrome/nephrosis, chronic lower respiratory disease, and influenza/pneumonia increased with increasing BMI. Compared with normal-weight BMI, a BMI of 40–44.9, 45–49.9, 50–54.9, and 55–59.9 kg/m² was associated with an estimated 6.5 (95% CI: 5.7–7.3), 8.9 (95% CI: 7.4–10.4), 9.8 (95% CI: 7.4–12.2), and 13.7 (95% CI: 10.5–16.9) y of life lost. A limitation was that BMI was mainly ascertained by self-report.

Conclusions

Class III obesity is associated with substantially elevated rates of total mortality, with most of the excess deaths due to heart disease, cancer, and diabetes, and major reductions in life expectancy compared with normal weight. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Incidence of Hospitalized Pneumococcal Pneumonia among Adults in Guatemala, 2008-2012

Background Streptococcus pneumoniae is a leading cause of pneumonia worldwide. However, the burden of pneumococcal pneumonia among adults in low- and middle-income countries is not well described.MethodsData from 2008–2012 was analyzed from two surveillance sites in Guatemala to describe the incidence of pneumococcal pneumonia in adults. A case of hospitalized pneumococcal pneumonia was defined as a positive pneumococcal urinary antigen test or blood culture in persons aged ≥ 18 years hospitalized with an acute respiratory infection (ARI).ResultsAmong 1595 adults admitted with ARI, 1363 (82%) had either urine testing (n = 1286) or blood culture (n = 338) performed. Of these, 188 (14%) had pneumococcal pneumonia, including 173 detected by urine only, 8 by blood culture only, and 7 by both methods. Incidence rates increased with age, with the lowest rate among 18–24 year-olds (2.75/100,000) and the highest among ≥65 year-olds (31.3/100,000). The adjusted incidence of hospitalized pneumococcal pneumonia was 18.6/100,000 overall, with in-hospital mortality of 5%.ConclusionsAn important burden of hospitalized pneumococcal pneumonia in adults was described, particularly for the elderly. However, even adjusted rates likely underestimate the true burden of pneumococcal pneumonia in the community. These data provide a baseline against which to measure the indirect effects of the 2013 introduction of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in children in Guatemala.     

The Promise of Prevention: The Effects of Four Preventable Risk Factors on National Life Expectancy and Life Expectancy Disparities by Race and County in the United States

Background

There has been substantial research on psychosocial and health care determinants of health disparities in the United States (US) but less on the role of modifiable risk factors. We estimated the effects of smoking, high blood pressure, elevated blood glucose, and adiposity on national life expectancy and on disparities in life expectancy and disease-specific mortality among eight subgroups of the US population (the “Eight Americas”) defined on the basis of race and the location and socioeconomic characteristics of county of residence, in 2005.

Methods and Findings

We combined data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System to estimate unbiased risk factor levels for the Eight Americas. We used data from the National Center for Health Statistics to estimate age–sex–disease-specific number of deaths in 2005. We used systematic reviews and meta-analyses of epidemiologic studies to obtain risk factor effect sizes for disease-specific mortality. We used epidemiologic methods for multiple risk factors to estimate the effects of current exposure to these risk factors on death rates, and life table methods to estimate effects on life expectancy. Asians had the lowest mean body mass index, fasting plasma glucose, and smoking; whites had the lowest systolic blood pressure (SBP). SBP was highest in blacks, especially in the rural South—5–7 mmHg higher than whites. The other three risk factors were highest in Western Native Americans, Southern low-income rural blacks, and/or low-income whites in Appalachia and the Mississippi Valley. Nationally, these four risk factors reduced life expectancy at birth in 2005 by an estimated 4.9 y in men and 4.1 y in women. Life expectancy effects were smallest in Asians (M, 4.1 y; F, 3.6 y) and largest in Southern rural blacks (M, 6.7 y; F, 5.7 y). Standard deviation of life expectancies in the Eight Americas would decline by 0.50 y (18%) in men and 0.45 y (21%) in women if these risks had been reduced to optimal levels. Disparities in the probabilities of dying from cardiovascular diseases and diabetes at different ages would decline by 69%–80%; the corresponding reduction for probabilities of dying from cancers would be 29%–50%. Individually, smoking and high blood pressure had the largest effect on life expectancy disparities.

Conclusions

Disparities in smoking, blood pressure, blood glucose, and adiposity explain a significant proportion of disparities in mortality from cardiovascular diseases and cancers, and some of the life expectancy disparities in the US. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Income Related Inequality of Health Care Access in Japan: A Retrospective Cohort Study

The purpose of this retrospective cohort study was to analyze the association between income level and health care access in Japan. Data from a total of 222,259 subjects (age range, 0–74 years) who submitted National Health Insurance claims in Chiba City from April 2012 to March 2014 and who declared income for the tax period from January 1 to December 31, 2012 were integrated and analyzed. The generalized estimating equation, in which household was defined as a cluster, was used to evaluate the association between equivalent income and utilization and duration of hospitalization and outpatient care services. A significant positive linear association was observed between income level and outpatient visit rates among all age groups of both sexes; however, a significantly higher rate and longer period of hospitalization, and longer outpatient care, were observed among certain lower income subgroups. To control for decreased income due to hospitalization, subjects hospitalized during the previous year were excluded, and the data was then reanalyzed. Significant inverse associations remained in the hospitalization rate among 40–59-year-old men and 60–69-year-old women, and in duration of hospitalization among 40–59 and 60–69-year-olds of both sexes and 70–74-year-old women. These results suggest that low-income individuals in Japan have poorer access to outpatient care and more serious health conditions than their higher income counterparts.     

Excess mortality associated with influenza epidemics in Portugal, 1980 to 2004

Background

Influenza epidemics have a substantial impact on human health, by increasing the mortality from pneumonia and influenza, respiratory and circulatory diseases, and all causes. This paper provides estimates of excess mortality rates associated with influenza virus circulation for 7 causes of death and 8 age groups in Portugal during the period of 1980–2004.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We compiled monthly mortality time series data by age for all-cause mortality, cerebrovascular diseases, ischemic heart diseases, diseases of the respiratory system, chronic respiratory diseases, pneumonia and influenza. We also used a control outcome, deaths from injuries. Age- and cause-specific baseline mortality was modelled by the ARIMA approach; excess deaths attributable to influenza were calculated by subtracting expected deaths from observed deaths during influenza epidemic periods. Influenza was associated with a seasonal average of 24.7 all-cause excess deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, approximately 90% of which were among seniors over 65 yrs. Excess mortality was 3–6 fold higher during seasons dominated by the A(H3N2) subtype than seasons dominated by A(H1N1)/B. High excess mortality impact was also seen in children under the age of four years. Seasonal excess mortality rates from all the studied causes of death were highly correlated with each other (Pearson correlation range, 0.65 to 0.95, P<0.001) and with seasonal rates of influenza-like-illness (ILI) among seniors over 65 years (Pearson correlation rho>0.64, P<0.05). By contrast, there was no correlation with excess mortality from injuries.

Conclusions/Significance

Our excess mortality approach is specific to influenza virus activity and produces influenza-related mortality rates for Portugal that are similar to those published for other countries. Our results indicate that all-cause excess mortality is a robust indicator of influenza burden in Portugal, and could be used to monitor the impact of influenza epidemics in this country. Additional studies are warranted to confirm these findings in other settings.     

Seroprevalence of Toxoplasma gondii Infection and Characteristics of Seropositive Patients in General Hospitals in Daejeon, Korea

To figure out the epidemiological status and relevance with other diseases in toxoplasmosis, we checked serum IgG antibody titers of 1,265 patients and medical records of seropositive patients. Seropositive rates were 6.6% by latex agglutination test (LAT) and 6.7% by ELISA. No significant differences were detected between sexes and age groups. The peak seroprevalence was detected in the 40-49-year-old age group. According to clinical department, Toxoplasma-positive rates were high in patients in psychiatry, ophthalmology, health management, emergency medicine, and thoracic surgery. Major coincidental diseases in seropositive cases were malignant neoplasms, diabetes mellitus, arthritis, chronic hepatitis B, chronic renal diseases, schizophrenia, and acute lymphadenitis, in the order of frequency. In particular, some patients with chronic hepatitis B and malignant neoplasms had high antibody titers. These results revealed that the seroprevalence of toxoplasmosis in a general hospital-based study was similar to that in a community-based study, and T. gondii seropositivity may be associated with neoplasms, diabetes, and other chronic infections.     

Risk Factors and Adverse Perinatal Outcomes among Term and Preterm Infants Born Small-for-Gestational-Age: Secondary Analyses of the WHO Multi-Country Survey on Maternal and Newborn Health

Background

Small for gestational age (SGA) is not only a major indicator of perinatal mortality and morbidity, but also the morbidity risks in later in life. We aim to estimate the association between the birth of SGA infants and the risk factors and adverse perinatal outcomes among twenty-nine countries in Africa, Latin America, the Middle East and Asia in 359 health facilities in 2010–11.

Methods

We analysed facility-based, cross-sectional data from the WHO Multi-country Survey on Maternal and Newborn Health. We constructed multilevel logistic regression models with random effects for facilities and countries to estimate the risk factors for SGA infants using country-specific birthweight reference standards in preterm and term delivery, and SGA’s association with adverse perinatal outcomes. We compared the risks and adverse perinatal outcomes with appropriate for gestational age (AGA) infants categorized by preterm and term delivery.

Results

A total of 295,829 singleton infants delivered were analysed. The overall prevalence of SGA was highest in Cambodia (18.8%), Nepal (17.9%), the Occupied Palestinian Territory (16.1%), and Japan (16.0%), while the lowest was observed in Afghanistan (4.8%), Uganda (6.6%) and Thailand (9.7%). The risk of preterm SGA infants was significantly higher among nulliparous mothers and mothers with chronic hypertension and preeclampsia/eclampsia (aOR: 2.89; 95% CI: 2.55–3.28) compared with AGA infants. Higher risks of term SGA were observed among sociodemographic factors and women with preeclampsia/eclampsia, anaemia and other medical conditions. Multiparity (> = 3) (AOR: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.83–0.92) was a protective factor for term SGA. The risk of perinatal mortality was significantly higher in preterm SGA deliveries in low to high HDI countries.

Conclusion

Preterm SGA is associated with medical conditions related to preeclampsia, but not with sociodemographic status. Term SGA is associated with sociodemographic status and various medical conditions.     

The Real Importance of Pre-Existing Comorbidities on Long-Term Mortality after Acute Kidney Injury

Background

The causes of death on long-term mortality after acute kidney injury (AKI) have not been well studied. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the role of comorbidities and the causes of death on the long-term mortality after AKI.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We retrospectively studied 507 patients who experienced AKI in 2005–2006 and were discharged free from dialysis. In June 2008 (median: 21 months after AKI), we found that 193 (38%) patients had died. This mortality is much higher than the mortality of the population of São Paulo City, even after adjustment for age. A multiple survival analysis was performed using Cox proportional hazards regression model and showed that death was associated with Khan’s index indicating high risk [adjusted hazard ratio 2.54 (1.38–4.66)], chronic liver disease [1.93 (1.15–3.22)], admission to non-surgical ward [1.85 (1.30–2.61)] and a second AKI episode during the same hospitalization [1.74 (1.12–2.71)]. The AKI severity evaluated either by the worst stage reached during AKI (P = 0.20) or by the need for dialysis (P = 0.12) was not associated with death. The causes of death were identified by a death certificate in 85% of the non-survivors. Among those who died from circulatory system diseases (the main cause of death), 59% had already suffered from hypertension, 34% from diabetes, 47% from heart failure, 38% from coronary disease, and 66% had a glomerular filtration rate <60 previous to the AKI episode. Among those who died from neoplasms, 79% already had the disease previously.

Conclusions

Among AKI survivors who were discharged free from dialysis the increased long-term mortality was associated with their pre-existing chronic conditions and not with the severity of the AKI episode. These findings suggest that these survivors should have a medical follow-up after hospital discharge and that all efforts should be made to control their comorbidities.     

Convergence of body mass with aging: The longitudinal interrelationship of health, weight, and survival

There has been ongoing debate about the health risks associated with increased body weight among the elderly population. One issue has not been investigated thoroughly is that body weight changes over time, as both the reasons and results of, the development of chronic diseases and functional disabilities. Structural models have the ability to unravel the complicated simultaneous relationship between body weight, disability, and mortality along the aging process. Using longitudinal data from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey from 1992 to 2001, we constructed a structural model to estimate the longitudinal dynamic relationship between weight, chronic diseases, functional status, and mortality among the aging population. A simulation of an age cohort from 65 to 100 was conducted to show the changes in weight and health outcomes among the cohorts with different baseline weight based on the parameters estimated by the model. The elderly with normal weight at age 65 experience higher life expectancy and lower disability rates than the same age cohorts in other weight categories. The interesting prediction of our model is that the average body size of an elderly cohort will converge to the normal weight range through a process of survival, senescence, and behavioral adjustment.