Early Detection,Curative Treatment,and Survival Rates for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance in Patients with Cirrhosis: A Meta-analysis

Background

Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has level I evidence among patients with hepatitis B but only level II evidence in patients with cirrhosis. This lack of randomized data has spurred questions regarding the utility of HCC surveillance in this patient population; however, lack of randomized data does not equate to a lack of data supporting the efficacy of surveillance. The aim of our study was to determine the effect of HCC surveillance on early stage tumor detection, receipt of curative therapy, and overall survival in patients with cirrhosis.

Methods and Findings

We performed a systematic literature review using Medline from January 1990 through January 2014 and a search of national meeting abstracts from 2009–2012. Two investigators identified studies that reported rates of early stage tumor detection, curative treatment receipt, or survival, stratified by HCC surveillance status, among patients with cirrhosis. Both investigators independently extracted data on patient populations, study methods, and results using standardized forms. Pooled odds ratios, according to HCC surveillance status, were calculated for each outcome using the DerSimonian and Laird method for a random effects model.We identified 47 studies with 15,158 patients, of whom 6,284 (41.4%) had HCC detected by surveillance. HCC surveillance was associated with improved early stage detection (odds ratio [OR] 2.08, 95% CI 1.80–2.37) and curative treatment rates (OR 2.24, 95% CI 1.99–2.52). HCC surveillance was associated with significantly prolonged survival (OR 1.90, 95% CI 1.67–2.17), which remained significant in the subset of studies adjusting for lead-time bias. Limitations of current data included many studies having insufficient duration of follow-up to assess survival and the majority not adjusting for liver function or lead-time bias.

Conclusions

HCC surveillance is associated with significant improvements in early tumor detection, receipt of curative therapy, and overall survival in patients with cirrhosis. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Prognostic Role of Pre-Treatment Serum AFP-L3% in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Serum lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive fraction of α-fetoprotein (AFP-L3%) has been widely used for HCC diagnosis and follow-up surveillance as tumor serologic marker. However, the prognostic value of high pre-treatment serum AFP-L3% in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains controversial. We therefore conduct a meta-analysis to assess the relationship between high pre-treatment serum AFP-L3% and clinical outcome of HCC.

Methods

Eligible studies were identified through systematic literature searches. A meta-analysis of fifteen studies (4,465 patients) was carried out to evaluate the association between high pre-treatment serum AFP-L3% and overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in HCC patients. Sensitivity and subgroup analyses were also conducted in this meta-analysis.

Results

Our analysis results showed that high pre-treatment serum AFP-L3% implied poor OS (HR: 1.65, 95%CI: 1.45–1.89 p<0.00001) and DFS (HR: 1.80, 95% CI: 1.49–2.17 p<0.00001) of HCC. Subgroup analysis revealed that there was association between pre-treatment serum AFP-L3% and endpoint (OS and DFS) in low AFP concentration HCC patients (HR: 1.96, 95% CI: 1.24–3.10, p = 0.004; HR: 2.53, 95% CI: 1.09–5.89, p = 0.03, respectively).

Conclusion

The current evidence suggests that high pre-treatment serum AFP-L3% levels indicated a poor prognosis for patients with HCC and AFP-L3% may have significant prognostic value in HCC patients with low AFP concentration.     

Diagnostic Value of the Combination of Golgi Protein 73 and Alpha-Fetoprotein in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Meta-Analysis

Conflicting results have been widely reported on the use of Golgi protein 73 (GP73) as a serum biomarker for diagnosing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study evaluated the accuracy of GP73, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), and GP73 + AFP for diagnosing HCC. The meta-analysis was performed on 11 studies that were selected by means of a comprehensive systematic literature review. Summary diagnostic accuracy, meta-regression analysis for heterogeneity and publication bias, and other statistical analyses were performed using Meta-Disc (version 1.4) and Stata (version 12.0). Pooled sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic odds ratio were 0.77 (95% CI: 0.75–0.79), 0.91 (95% CI: 0.90–0.92), and 12.49 (95% CI: 4.91–31.79) for GP73; 0.62 (95% CI: 0.60–0.64), 0.84 (95% CI: 0.83–0.85), and 11.61 (95% CI: 8.02–16.81) for AFP; and 0.87 (95% CI: 0.85–0.89), 0.85 (95% CI: 0.84–0.86), and 30.63 (95% CI: 18.10–51.84) for GP73 + AFP. The area under the curve values were 0.86, 0.84, and 0.91 for GP73, AFP, and GP73 + AFP, respectively. These results indicate that for HCC diagnosis, the accuracy of GP73 was higher than that of AFP, and that GP73 + AFP exhibited significantly higher diagnostic accuracy than did GP73 or AFP alone.     

Long-Term Survival in HIV Positive Patients with up to 15 Years of Antiretroviral Therapy

Background

Life expectancy has increased for newly diagnosed HIV patients since the inception of combination antiretroviral treatment (cART), but there remains a need to better understand the characteristics of long-term survival in HIV-positive patients. We examined long-term survival in HIV-positive patients receiving cART in the Australian HIV Observational Database (AHOD), to describe changes in mortality compared to the general population and to develop longer-term survival models.

Methods

Data were examined from 2,675 HIV-positive participants in AHOD who started cART. Standardised mortality ratios (SMR) were calculated by age, sex and calendar year across prognostic characteristics using Australian Bureau of Statistics national data as reference. SMRs were examined by years of duration of cART by CD4 and similarly by viral load. Survival was analysed using Cox-proportional hazards and parametric survival models.

Results

The overall SMR for all-cause mortality was 3.5 (95% CI: 3.0–4.0). SMRs by CD4 count were 8.6 (95% CI: 7.2–10.2) for CD4<350 cells/µl; 2.1 (95% CI: 1.5–2.9) for CD4 = 350–499 cells/µl; and 1.5 (95% CI: 1.1–2.0) for CD4≥500 cells/µl. SMRs for patients with CD4 counts <350 cells/µL were much higher than for patients with higher CD4 counts across all durations of cART. SMRs for patients with viral loads greater than 400 copies/ml were much higher across all durations of cART. Multivariate models demonstrated improved survival associated with increased recent CD4, reduced recent viral load, younger patients, absence of HBVsAg-positive ever, year of HIV diagnosis and incidence of ADI. Parametric models showed a fairly constant mortality risk by year of cART up to 15 years of treatment.

Conclusion

Observed mortality remained fairly constant by duration of cART and was modelled accurately by accepted prognostic factors. These rates did not vary much by duration of treatment. Changes in mortality with age were similar to those in the Australian general population.     

Diagnostic Evaluation of Des-Gamma-Carboxy Prothrombin versus α-Fetoprotein for Hepatitis B Virus-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma in China: A Large-Scale,Multicentre Study

An efficient serum marker for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is currently lacking and requires intensive exploration. We aimed to evaluate the performance of des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) for identifying hepatitis B virus-related HCC in a large, multicentre study in China. A total of 1034 subjects in three cohorts (A, B, and C) including HCC and various non-HCC controls were enrolled from 4 academic medical centers in China from January 2011 to February 2014. Blind parallel detections were conducted for DCP and AFP. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the diagnostic efficacies. In cohort A, which comprised 521 subjects, including patients with HCC, liver metastasis, liver cirrhosis (LC), and liver hemangiomas as well as healthy controls (HCs), the accuracy of DCP for distinguishing HCC from various controls was 6.2–9.7% higher than that of AFP. In cohort B, which comprised 447 subjects, including patients with HCC, LC, and chronic hepatitis B as well as HC, the accuracy of DCP was further elevated (12.3–20.67% higher than that of AFP). The superiority of DCP to AFP was more profound in the surveillance of early HCC [AUC 0.837 (95% CI: 0.771–0.903) vs. 0.650 (0.555–0.745)] and AFP-negative HCC [AUC: 0.856 (0.798–0.914)] and in discriminating HCC from LC (accuracy: 92.9% vs.64.71%). Higher DCP levels were associated with worse clinical behaviors and shorter disease-free survival. DCP not only is complementary to AFP in identifying AFP-negative HCC and in excluding AFP-positive non-HCC (liver cirrhosis), but also demonstrates improved performance in HCC surveillance, early diagnosis, treatment response and recurrence monitoring in the HBV-related population.     

Prognostic Significance of E-Cadherin Expression in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Meta-Analysis

Backgrounds

Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common malignancy of liver and HCC-related morbidity and mortality remains at high level. Researchers had investigated whether and how reduced E-cadherin expression impacted the prognosis of patients with HCC but the results reported by different teams remain inconclusive.

Methods

A systematic literature search was performed in all available databases to retrieve eligible studies and identify all relevant data, which could be used to evaluate the correlation between reduced E-cadherin expression and clinicopathological features and prognosis for HCC patients. A fixed or random effects model was used in this meta-analysis to calculate the pooled odds ratios (OR) and weighted mean differences (WMD) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results

Total 2439 patients in thirty studies matched the selection criteria. Aggregation of the data suggested that reduced E-cadherin expression in HCC patients correlated with poor 1-, 3- and 5-year overall survival. The combined ORs were 0.50 (n = 13 studies, 95% CI: 0.37–0.67, Z = 4.49, P<0.00001), 0.39 (n = 13 studies, 95% CI: 0.28–0.56, Z = 5.12, P<0.00001), 0.40 (n = 11 studies, 95% CI: 0.25–0.64, Z = 3.82, P = 0.0001), respectively. Additionally, the pooled analysis denoted that reduced E-cadherin expression negatively impacts recurrence-free survival (RSF) with no significant heterogeneity. The pooled ORs for 1-, 3- and 5- year RSF affected by down-regulated E-cadherin were 0.73 (n = 6 studies, 95% CI: 0.54–1.00, Z = 1.95, P = 0.05), 0.70 (n = 6 studies, 95% CI: 0.52–0.95, Z = 2.32, P = 0.02), 0.66 (n = 5 studies, 95% CI: 0.48–0.90, Z = 2.64, P = 0.008). And what’s more, reduced E-cadherin expression tended to be significantly associated with metastasis (OR = 0.31, 95% CI: 0.16–0.60, Z = 3.50, P = 0.0005), vascular invasion (OR = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.59–0.98, Z = 2.14, P = 0.03), advanced differentiation grade (OR = 0.31, 95% CI: 0.21–0.45, Z = 6.04, P<0.00001) and advanced TMN stage (T3/T4 versus T1/T2) (OR = 0.61,95% CI:0.38–0.98, Z = 2.05, P = 0.04).

Conclusions

Reduced E-cadherin expression indicates a poor prognosis for patients with HCC, and it may have predictive potential for prognosis of HCC patients.     

The Effects of Anti-Dementia and Nootropic Treatments on the Mortality of Patients with Dementia: A Population-Based Cohort Study in Taiwan

Background

Few studies have examined the contribution of treatment on the mortality of dementia based on a population-based study.

Objective

To investigate the effects of anti-dementia and nootropic treatments on the mortality of dementia using a population-based cohort study.

Methods

12,193 incident dementia patients were found from 2000 to 2010. Their data were compared with 12,193 age- and sex-matched non-dementia controls that were randomly selected from the same database. Dementia was classified into vascular (VaD) and degenerative dementia. Mortality incidence and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated.

Results

The median survival time was 3.39 years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.88–3.79) for VaD without medication, 6.62 years (95% CI: 6.24–7.21) for VaD with nootropics, 3.01 years (95% CI: 2.85–3.21) for degenerative dementia without medication, 8.11 years (95% CI: 6.30–8.55) for degenerative dementia with anti-dementia medication, 6.00 years (95% CI: 5.73–6.17) for degenerative dementia with nootropics, and 9.03 years (95% CI: 8.02–9.87) for degenerative dementia with both anti-dementia and nootropic medications. Compared to the non-dementia group, the HRs among individuals with degenerative dementia were 2.69 (95% CI: 2.55–2.83) without medication, 1.46 (95% CI: 1.39–1.54) with nootropics, 1.05 (95% CI: 0.82–1.34) with anti-dementia medication, and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.80–1.05) with both nootropic and anti-dementia medications. VaD with nootropics had a lower mortality (HR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.15–1.37) than VaD without medication (HR: 2.46, 95% CI: 2.22–2.72).

Conclusion

Pharmacological treatments have beneficial effects for patients with dementia in prolonging their survival.     

Large Variations in Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Mortality in Treatment Na?ve Hepatitis B Patients: Systematic Review with Meta-Analyses

Background

The complications to chronic hepatitis B (HBV) include incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and mortality. The risk of these complications may vary in different patient groups.

Aim

To estimate the incidence and predictors of HCC and in untreated HBV patients.

Methods

Systematic review with random effects meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials and observational studies. Results are expressed as annual incidence (events per 100 person-years) with 95% confidence intervals. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses of patient and study characteristics were performed to identify common risk factors.

Results

We included 68 trials and studies with a total of 27,584 patients (264,919 person-years). In total, 1,285 of 26,687 (5%) patients developed HCC and 730 of 12,511 (6%) patients died. The annual incidence was 0.88 (95% CI, 0.76–0.99) for HCC and 1.26 (95% CI, 1.01–1.51) for mortality. Patients with cirrhosis had a higher risk of HCC (incidence 3.16; 95% CI, 2.58–3.74) than patients without cirrhosis (0.10; 95% CI, 0.02–0.18). The risk of dying was also higher for patients with than patients without cirrhosis (4.89; 95% CI, 3.16–6.63; and 0.11; 95% CI, 0.09–0.14). The risk of developing HCC increased with HCV coinfection, older age and inflammatory activity. The country of origin did not clearly predict HCC or mortality estimates.

Conclusions

Cirrhosis was the strongest predictor of HCC incidence and mortality. Patients with HBV cirrhosis have a 31-fold increased risk of HCC and a 44-fold increased mortality compared to non-cirrhotic patients. The low incidence rates should be taken into account when considering HCC screening in non-cirrhotic patients.

Trial Registration

Prospero CRD42013004764     

Impact of Hiv-Associated Conditions on Mortality in People Commencing Anti-Retroviral Therapy in Resource Limited Settings

Objectives

To identify associations between specific WHO stage 3 and 4 conditions diagnosed after ART initiation and all cause mortality for patients in resource-limited settings (RLS).

Design, Setting

Analysis of routine program data collected prospectively from 25 programs in eight countries between 2002 and 2010.

Subjects, Participants

36,664 study participants with median ART follow-up of 1.26 years (IQR 0.55–2.27).

Outcome Measures

Using a proportional hazards model we identified factors associated with mortality, including the occurrence of specific WHO clinical stage 3 and 4 conditions during the 6-months following ART initiation.

Results

There were 2922 deaths during follow-up (8.0%). The crude mortality rate was 5.41 deaths per 100 person-years (95% CI: 5.21–5.61). The diagnosis of any WHO stage 3 or 4 condition during the first 6 months of ART was associated with increased mortality (HR: 2.21; 95% CI: 1.97–2.47). After adjustment for age, sex, region and pre-ART CD4 count, a diagnosis of extrapulmonary cryptococcosis (aHR: 3.54; 95% CI: 2.74–4.56), HIV wasting syndrome (aHR: 2.92; 95%CI: 2.21 -3.85), non-tuberculous mycobacterial infection (aHR: 2.43; 95% CI: 1.80–3.28) and Pneumocystis pneumonia (aHR: 2.17; 95% CI 1.80–3.28) were associated with the greatest increased mortality. Cerebral toxoplasmosis, pulmonary and extra-pulmonary tuberculosis, Kaposi’s sarcoma and oral and oesophageal candidiasis were associated with increased mortality, though at lower rates.

Conclusions

A diagnosis of certain WHO stage 3 and 4 conditions is associated with an increased risk of mortality in those initiating ART in RLS. This information will assist initiatives to reduce excess mortality, including prioritization of resources for diagnostics, therapeutic interventions and research.     

Stereotactic radiosurgery for patients with breast cancer brain oligometastases — molecular subtypes and clinical outcomes

BackgroundWe sought to determine the clinical outcomes of patients with breast cancer (BC) who had undergone stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) for a limited number of brain metastases (BM) and to identify factors influencing overall survival (OS) and local control.Materials and methodsThe records of 45 patients who underwent SRS for 72 brain lesions were retrospectively evaluated. Statistics included the chi-squared test, Kaplan-Meier method, and the multivariate Cox model.ResultsThe median number of treated BM was 2 (range 1–10). Median OS from BM diagnosis and post-SRS were 27.6 [95% confidence interval (CI): 14.8–40.5) and 18.5 months (95% CI: 11.1–25.8), respectively. One-year and two-year survival rates after BM diagnosis were 55% and 41%, respectively. In a univariate analysis, the Luminal-B-human-epidermal-growth-receptor-positive (HER2+) subtype had the longest median OS at 39.1 months (95% CI: 34.1–44.1, p = 0.004). In an adjusted analysis, grade 2 [hazard ratio (HR): 0.1; 95% CI: 0.1–0.6, p = 0.005), craniotomy (HR: 0.3; 95% CI: 0.1–0.7; p = 0.006), and ≥ 2 systemic therapies received (HR: 0.3; 95% CI: 0.1–0.9, p = 0.028) were associated with improved OS. One-year and two-year intracranial progression-free survival rates were 85% and 63%, respectively. Four factors for a higher risk of any intracranial recurrence remained significant in the adjusted analysis, as follows: age < 50 years (HR: 4.2; 95% CI: 1.3–36.3; p = 0.014), grade 3 (HR: 3.7; 95% CI: 1.1–13.2; p = 0.038), HER2+ (HR: 6.9; 95% CI: 1.3–36.3; p = 0.023), and whether the brain was the first metastatic site (HR: 4.7; 95% CI: 1.6–14.5; p = 0.006).ConclusionIntrinsic BC characteristics are important determinants for both survival and intracranial control for patients undergoing SRS for oligometastatic brain disease.     

Association between Body Mass Index and Prognosis of Colorectal Cancer: A Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies

Studies have reported conflicting results on the association between body mass index (BMI) and prognosis of colorectal cancer. Therefore, we have conducted a meta-analysis of prospective studies, which examined the association of pre- and post-diagnostic BMI with colorectal cancer-specific mortality and all-cause mortality in patients with colorectal cancer. We searched Medline and EMBASE database published between 1970 and September 2014. A total of 508 articles were identified, of which 16 prospective cohort studies were included for the current meta-analysis. The analysis included 58,917 patients who were followed up over a period ranging from 4.9 to 20 years (median: 9.9 years). We found that being underweight before cancer diagnosis was associated with increased all-cause mortality (Relative risk [RR]: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.18–2.23, p < 0.01) and being obese (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m²) before cancer diagnosis was associated with increased colorectal cancer-specific mortality (RR: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.003–1.35, p < 0.01) and all-cause mortality (RR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.14–1.36, p < 0.01). On the other hand, being underweight (RR: 1.33, 95% CI: 1.20–1.47, p < 0.01), obese (RR: 1.08, 95% CI: 1.03–1.3, p < 0.01), and class II/III obese (BMI ≥ 35 kg/m²; RR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.04–1.23, p < 0.01) after diagnosis were associated with significantly increased all-cause mortality. Being obese prior to diagnosis of colorectal cancer was associated with increased colorectal cancer-specific mortality and all-cause mortality, whereas being obese after diagnosis was associated with increased all-cause mortality. The associations with being underweight may reflect reverse causation. Maintaining a healthy body weight should be discussed with colorectal cancer survivors.     

PNPLA3 I148M Polymorphism,Clinical Presentation,and Survival in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background & Aims

Aim of this study was to evaluate whether the PNPLA3 I148M polymorphism, previously associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk, influences the clinical presentation of HCC and survival.

Methods

we considered 460 consecutive HCC patients referred to tertiary care centers in Northern Italy, 353 with follow-up data.

Results

Homozygosity for PNPLA3 148M at risk allele was enriched in HCC patients with alcoholic liver disease or nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (ALD&NAFLD: relative risk 5.9, 95% c.i. 3.5–9.9; other liver diseases: relative risk 1.9, 95% c.i. 1.1–3.4). In ALD&NAFLD patients, the PNPLA3 148M allele was associated with younger age, shorter history of cirrhosis, less advanced (Child A) cirrhosis at HCC diagnosis, and lower HCC differentiation grade (p<0.05). Homozygosity for PNPLA3 148M was associated with reduced survival in the overall series (p = 0.009), and with a higher number of HCC lesions at presentation (p = 0.007) and reduced survival in ALD&NAFLD patients (p = 0.003; median survival 30, 95% c.i. 20–39 vs. 45, 95% c.i. 38–52 months), but not in those with HCC related to other etiologies (p = 0.86; 48, 95% c.i. 32–64 vs. 55, 95% c.i. 43–67 months). At multivariate Cox regression analysis, homozygosity for PNPLA3 148M was the only negative predictor of survival in ALD&NAFLD patients (HR of death 1.57, 95% c.i. 1.12–2.78).

Conclusions

PNPLA3 148M is over-represented in ALD&NAFLD HCC patients, and is associated with occurrence at a less advanced stage of liver disease in ALD&NAFLD. In ALD&NAFLD, PNPLA3 148M is associated with more diffuse HCC at presentation, and with reduced survival.     

Dried-Blood Spots: A Cost-Effective Field Method for the Detection of Chikungunya Virus Circulation in Remote Areas

Background

In 2005, there were outbreaks of febrile polyarthritis due to Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in the Comoros Islands. CHIKV then spread to other islands in the Indian Ocean: La Réunion, Mauritius, Seychelles and Madagascar. These outbreaks revealed the lack of surveillance and preparedness of Madagascar and other countries. Thus, it was decided in 2007 to establish a syndrome-based surveillance network to monitor dengue-like illness.

Objective

This study aims to evaluate the use of capillary blood samples blotted on filter papers for molecular diagnosis of CHIKV infection. Venous blood samples can be difficult to obtain and the shipment of serum in appropriate temperature conditions is too costly for most developing countries.

Methodology and principal findings

Venous blood and dried-blood blotted on filter paper (DBFP) were collected during the last CHIKV outbreak in Madagascar (2010) and as part of our routine surveillance of dengue-like illness. All samples were tested by real-time RT-PCR and results with serum and DBFP samples were compared for each patient. The sensitivity and specificity of tests performed with DBFP, relative to those with venous samples (defined as 100%) were 93.1% (95% CI:[84.7–97.7]) and 94.4% (95% CI:[88.3–97.7]), respectively. The Kappa coefficient 0.87 (95% CI:[0.80–0.94]) was excellent.

Conclusion

This study shows that DBFP specimens can be used as a cost-effective alternative sampling method for the surveillance and monitoring of CHIKV circulation and emergence in developing countries, and probably also for other arboviruses. The loss of sensitivity is insignificant and involved a very small number of patients, all with low viral loads. Whether viruses can be isolated from dried blood spots remains to be determined.     

Adjusting HIV Prevalence for Survey Non-Response Using Mortality Rates: An Application of the Method Using Surveillance Data from Rural South Africa

Background

The main source of HIV prevalence estimates are household and population-based surveys; however, high refusal rates may hinder the interpretation of such estimates. The study objective was to evaluate whether population HIV prevalence estimates can be adjusted for survey non-response using mortality rates.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Data come from the longitudinal Africa Centre Demographic Information System (ACDIS), in rural South Africa. Mortality rates for persons tested and not tested in the 2005 HIV surveillance were available from routine household surveillance. Assuming HIV status among individuals contacted but who refused to test (non-response) is missing at random and mortality among non-testers can be related to mortality of those tested a mathematical model was developed. Non-parametric bootstrapping was used to estimate the 95% confidence intervals around the estimates. Mortality rates were higher among untested (16.9 per thousand person-years) than tested population (11.6 per thousand person-years), suggesting higher HIV prevalence in the former. Adjusted HIV prevalence for females (15–49 years) was 31.6% (95% CI 26.1–37.1) compared to observed 25.2% (95% CI 24.0–26.4). For males (15–49 years) adjusted HIV prevalence was 19.8% (95% CI 14.8–24.8), compared to observed 13.2% (95% CI 12.1–14.3). For both sexes (15–49 years) combined, adjusted prevalence was 27.5% (95% CI 23.6–31.3), and observed prevalence was 19.7% (95% CI 19.6–21.3). Overall, observed prevalence underestimates the adjusted prevalence by around 7 percentage points (37% relative difference).

Conclusions/Significance

We developed a simple approach to adjust HIV prevalence estimates for survey non-response. The approach has three features that make it easy to implement and effective in adjusting for selection bias than other approaches. Further research is needed to assess this approach in populations with widely available HIV treatment (ART).     

Arsenic Exposure and Outcomes of Antimonial Treatment in Visceral Leishmaniasis Patients in Bihar,India: A Retrospective Cohort Study

BackgroundIn the late twentieth century, emergence of high rates of treatment failure with antimonial compounds (SSG) for visceral leishmaniasis (VL) caused a public health crisis in Bihar, India. We hypothesize that exposure to arsenic through drinking contaminated groundwater may be associated with SSG treatment failure due to the development of antimony-resistant parasites.MethodsA retrospective cohort design was employed, as antimony treatment is no longer in routine use. The study was performed on patients treated with SSG between 2006 and 2010. Outcomes of treatment were assessed through a field questionnaire and treatment failure used as a proxy for parasite resistance. Arsenic exposure was quantified through analysis of 5 water samples from within and surrounding the patient’s home. A logistic regression model was used to evaluate the association between arsenic exposure and treatment failure. In a secondary analysis survival curves and Cox regression models were applied to assess the risk of mortality in VL patients exposed to arsenic.ResultsOne hundred and ten VL patients treated with SSG were analysed. The failure rate with SSG was 59%. Patients with high mean local arsenic level had a non-statistically significant higher risk of treatment failure (OR = 1.78, 95% CI: 0.7–4.6, p = 0.23) than patients using wells with arsenic concentration <10 μg/L. Twenty one patients died in our cohort, 16 directly as a result of VL. Arsenic levels ≥ 10 μg/L increased the risk of all-cause (HR 3.27; 95% CI: 1.4–8.1) and VL related (HR 2.65; 95% CI: 0.96–7.65) deaths. This was time dependent: 3 months post VL symptom development, elevated risks of all-cause mortality (HR 8.56; 95% CI: 2.5–29.1) and of VL related mortality (HR 9.27; 95% CI: 1.8–49.0) were detected.Discussion/ConclusionThis study indicates a trend towards increased treatment failure in arsenic exposed patients. The limitations of the retrospective study design may have masked a strong association between arsenic exposure and selection for antimonial resistance in the field. The unanticipated strong correlation between arsenic exposure and VL mortality warrants further investigation.     

Prognostic Significance of Molecular Analysis of Peritoneal Fluid for Patients with Gastric Cancer: A Meta-Analysis

Background

Accurately distinguishing serosal invasion in patients with gastric cancer (GC) prior to surgery can be difficult. Molecular analysis of peritoneal fluid (MAPF) for free cancer cells with higher sensitivity than other methods; however, its prognostic value for GC remains controversial, precluding its application in clinical practice.

Methods

PubMed, EMBASE and other databases were systematically searched. Thirty-one studies were eligible for the meta-analysis. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were pooled for overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS) and peritoneal recurrence-free survival (PRF).

Results

The current meta-analysis focused on patients with GC and negative cytological diagnoses. The results showed that positive MAPF status (MAPF⁺) led to poorer prognoses for OS (HR 2.59, 95% CI 1.99–3.37), DFS (HR 4.92, 95% CI 3.28–7.37) and PRF (HR 2.81, 95% CI 2.12–3.72) compared with negative MAPF status (MAPF^-). Moreover, among the patients with GC who received curative treatment, the MAPF⁺ patients had poorer prognoses for OS (HR 3.27, 95% CI 2.49–4.29), DFS (HR 3.90, 95% CI 2.74–5.57) and PRF (HR 5.45, 95% CI 3.70–8.03). A meta-analysis of multivariate-adjusted HRs demonstrated that MAPF⁺ status was an independent prognostic factor for patients with GC who underwent curative treatment (OS: HR 2.19, 95% CI 1.47–3.28; PRF: HR 3.44, 95% CI 2.01–5.87). Using the identical target genes (CEA, CEA/CK20) as molecular markers, the patients with GC who were MAPF⁺ had significantly worse prognoses for OS (CEA: HR 3.03, 95% CI 2.29–4.01; CEA/CK20: HR 4.24, 95% CI 2.42–7.40), DFS (CEA: HR 3.99, 95% CI 2.24–7.12; CEA/CK20: HR 4.31, 95% CI 1.49–2.48) and PRF (CEA: HR 4.45, 95% CI 2.72–7.31; CEA/CK20: HR 6.46, 95% CI 3.62–11.55) than the patients who were MAPF^-.

Conclusion/Significance

The above results demonstrate that MAPF could be a prognostic indicator for patients with GC who have a negative cytological diagnosis and/or are receiving curative treatment. MAPF could provide clinicians with additional prognostic information that could aid in developing individualized treatment plans prior to surgery. The widely used target genes CEA, CEA/CK20 were confirmed to be valuable MAPF markers for predicting the prognosis of GC.     

Clinical Significance and Role of Lymphatic Vessel Invasion as a Major Prognostic Implication in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: A Meta-Analysis

Background

Lymphatic vessel invasion (LVI) exerts an important process in the progression and local spread of cancer cells. However, LVI as a prognostic factor for survival in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) remains controversial.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A meta-analysis of published studies from PubMed and EMBASE electronic databases was performed to quantity the effects of LVI on both relapse-free survival and overall survival for patients with NSCLC. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were used to assess the strength of these effects. This meta-analysis included 18,442 NSCLC patients from 53 eligible studies. LVI appeared in 32.1% (median; range, 2.8% to 70.9%) of tumor samples. In all, patients with LVI were 2.48 times more likely to relapse by univariate analysis (95% CI: 1.92–3.22) and 1.73 times by multivariate analysis (95% CI: 1.24–2.41) compared with those without LVI. For the analyses of LVI and overall survival, the pooled HR estimate was 1.97 (95% CI: 1.75–2.21) by univariate analysis and 1.59 (95% CI: 1.41–1.79) by multivariate analysis. Multivariate analysis showed a risk was 91% higher for recurrence (HR  = 1.91, 95% CI: 1.14–2.91) and 70% higher for mortality (HR = 1.70, 95% CI: 1.38–2.10) in LVI-positive I stage patients compared with LVI-negative I stage patients. Subgroup analyses showed similar significant adjusted risks for recurrence and death in adenocarcinomas, and a significant adjusted risk for death in studies that utilized elastic staining with or without immunohistochemistry in defining LVI.

Conclusions/Significance

The present study indicates that LVI appears to be an independent poor prognosticator in surgically managed NSCLC. NSCLC patients with LVI would require a more aggressive treatment strategy after surgery. However, large, well-designed prospective studies with clinically relevant modeling and standard methodology to assess LVI are required to address some of these important issues.     

Enhancer of Zeste Homolog 2 as an Independent Prognostic Marker for Cancer: A Meta-Analysis

BackgroundNovel biomarkers are of particular interest for predicting cancer prognosis. This study aimed to explore the associations between enhancer of zeste homolog 2 (EZH2) and patient survival in various cancers.MethodsRelevant literature was retrieved from PubMed and Web of Science databases. Pooled hazard ratios (HRs), odds ratios (ORs), and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated.ResultsForty-nine studies (8,050 patients) were included. High EZH2 expression was significantly associated with shorter overall (hazard ratio [HR] 1.74, 95% CI: 1.46–2.07), disease-free (HR 1.59, 95% CI: 1.27–1.99), metastasis-free (HR 2.19, 95% CI: 1.38–3.47), progression-free (HR 2.53, 95% CI: 1.52–4.21), cancer-specific (HR 3.13, 95% CI: 1.70–5.74), and disease-specific (HR 2.29, 95% CI: 1.56–3.35) survival, but not recurrence-free survival (HR 1.38, 95% CI: 0.93–2.06). Moreover, EZH2 expression significantly correlated with distant metastasis (OR 3.25, 95% CI: 1.07–9.87) in esophageal carcinoma; differentiation (OR 3.00, 95% CI: 1.37–6.55) in non-small cell lung cancer; TNM stage (OR 3.18, 95% CI: 2.49–4.08) in renal cell carcinoma; and histological grade (OR 4.50, 95% CI: 3.33–6.09), estrogen receptor status (OR 0.15, 95% CI: 0.11–0.20) and progesterone receptor status (OR 0.30, 95% CI: 0.23–0.39) in breast cancer.ConclusionsOur results suggested that EZH2 might be an independent prognostic factor for multiple survival measures in different cancers.     

Impact of Renal Dysfunction on Mid-Term Outcome after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

There is conflicting evidence regarding the impact of preexisting renal dysfunction (RD) on mid-term outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) in patients with symptomatic aortic stenosis (AS).

Methods and results

Forty-seven articles representing 32,131 patients with AS undergoing a TAVI procedure were included in this systematic review and meta-analysis. Pooled analyses were performed with both univariate and multivariate models, using a fixed or random effects method when appropriate. Compared with patients with normal renal function, mid-term mortality was significantly higher in patients with preexisting RD, as defined by the author (univariate hazard ratio [HR]: 1.69; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.50–1.90; multivariate HR: 1.47; 95% CI: 1.17–1.84), baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (univariate HR: 1.65; 95% CI: 1.47–1.86; multivariate HR: 1.46; 95% CI: 1.24–1.71), and serum creatinine (univariate HR: 1.69; 95% CI: 1.48–1.92; multivariate HR: 1.65; 95% CI: 1.36–1.99). Advanced stage of chronic kidney disease (CKD stage 3–5) was strongly related to bleeding (univariate HR in CKD stage 3: 1.30, 95% CI: 1.13–1.49; in CKD stage 4: 1.30, 95% CI: 1.04–1.62), acute kidney injure (AKI) (univariate HR in CKD stage 3: 1.28, 95% CI: 1.03–1.59; in CKD stage 4: 2.27, 95% CI: 1.74–2.96), stroke (univariate HR in CKD stage 4: 3.37, 95% CI: 1.52–7.46), and mid-term mortality (univariate HR in CKD stage 3: 1.57, 95% CI: 1.26–1.95; in CKD stage 4: 2.77, 95% CI: 2.06–3.72; in CKD stage 5: 2.64, 95% CI: 1.91–3.65) compared with CKD stage 1+2. Patients with CKD stage 4 had a higher incidence of AKI (univariate HR: 1.70, 95% CI: 1.34–2.16) and all-cause death (univariate HR: 1.60, 95% CI: 1.28–1.99) compared with those with CKD stage 3. A per unit decrease in serum creatinine was also associated with a higher mortality at mid-term follow-up (univariate HR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.18–1.30; multivariate HR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.08–1.30).

Conclusions

Preexisting RD was associated with increased mid-term mortality after TAVI. Patients with CKD stage 4 had significantly higher incidences of peri-procedural complications and a poorer prognosis, a finding that should be factored into the clinical decision-making process regarding these patients.