Can We Predict Oral Antibiotic Treatment Failure in Children with Fast-Breathing Pneumonia Managed at the Community Level? A Prospective Cohort Study in Malawi

BackgroundPneumonia is the leading cause of infectious death amongst children globally, with the highest burden in Africa. Early identification of children at risk of treatment failure in the community and prompt referral could lower mortality. A number of clinical markers have been independently associated with oral antibiotic failure in childhood pneumonia. This study aimed to develop a prognostic model for fast-breathing pneumonia treatment failure in sub-Saharan Africa.MethodWe prospectively followed a cohort of children (2–59 months), diagnosed by community health workers with fast-breathing pneumonia using World Health Organisation (WHO) integrated community case management guidelines. Cases were followed at days 5 and 14 by study data collectors, who assessed a range of pre-determined clinical features for treatment outcome. We built the prognostic model using eight pre-defined parameters, using multivariable logistic regression, validated through bootstrapping.ResultsWe assessed 1,542 cases of which 769 were included (32% ineligible; 19% defaulted). The treatment failure rate was 15% at day 5 and relapse was 4% at day 14. Concurrent malaria diagnosis (OR: 1.62; 95% CI: 1.06, 2.47) and moderate malnutrition (OR: 1.88; 95% CI: 1.09, 3.26) were associated with treatment failure. The model demonstrated poor calibration and discrimination (c-statistic: 0.56).ConclusionThis study suggests that it may be difficult to create a pragmatic community-level prognostic child pneumonia tool based solely on clinical markers and pulse oximetry in an HIV and malaria endemic setting. Further work is needed to identify more accurate and reliable referral algorithms that remain feasible for use by community health workers.     

Can Prenatal Malaria Exposure Produce an Immune Tolerant Phenotype?: A Prospective Birth Cohort Study in Kenya

Background

Malaria in pregnancy can expose the fetus to malaria-infected erythrocytes or their soluble products, thereby stimulating T and B cell immune responses to malaria blood stage antigens. We hypothesized that fetal immune priming, or malaria exposure in the absence of priming (putative tolerance), affects the child''s susceptibility to subsequent malaria infections.

Methods and Findings

We conducted a prospective birth cohort study of 586 newborns residing in a malaria-holoendemic area of Kenya who were examined biannually to age 3 years for malaria infection, and whose malaria-specific cellular and humoral immune responses were assessed. Newborns were classified as (i) sensitized (and thus exposed), as demonstrated by IFNγ, IL-2, IL-13, and/or IL-5 production by cord blood mononuclear cells (CBMCs) to malaria blood stage antigens, indicative of in utero priming (n = 246), (ii) exposed not sensitized (mother Plasmodium falciparum [Pf]+ and no CBMC production of IFNγ, IL-2, IL-13, and/or IL-5, n = 120), or (iii) not exposed (mother Pf−, no CBMC reactivity, n = 220). Exposed not sensitized children had evidence for prenatal immune experience demonstrated by increased IL-10 production and partial reversal of malaria antigen-specific hyporesponsiveness with IL-2+IL-15, indicative of immune tolerance. Relative risk data showed that the putatively tolerant children had a 1.61 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10–2.43; p = 0.024) and 1.34 (95% CI 0.95–1.87; p = 0.097) greater risk for malaria infection based on light microscopy (LM) or PCR diagnosis, respectively, compared to the not-exposed group, and a 1.41 (95%CI 0.97–2.07, p = 0.074) and 1.39 (95%CI 0.99–2.07, p = 0.053) greater risk of infection based on LM or PCR diagnosis, respectively, compared to the sensitized group. Putatively tolerant children had an average of 0.5 g/dl lower hemoglobin levels (p = 0.01) compared to the other two groups. Exposed not sensitized children also had 2- to 3-fold lower frequency of malaria antigen-driven IFNγ and/or IL-2 production (p<0.001) and higher IL-10 release (p<0.001) at 6-month follow-ups, when compared to sensitized and not-exposed children. Malaria blood stage–specific IgG antibody levels were similar among the three groups.

Conclusions

These results show that a subset of children exposed to malaria in utero acquire a tolerant phenotype to blood-stage antigens that persists into childhood and is associated with an increased susceptibility to malaria infection and anemia. This finding could have important implications for malaria vaccination of children residing in endemic areas. Please see later in the article for Editors'' Summary     

Can We Identify Non-Stationary Dynamics of Trial-to-Trial Variability?

Identifying sources of the apparent variability in non-stationary scenarios is a fundamental problem in many biological data analysis settings. For instance, neurophysiological responses to the same task often vary from each repetition of the same experiment (trial) to the next. The origin and functional role of this observed variability is one of the fundamental questions in neuroscience. The nature of such trial-to-trial dynamics however remains largely elusive to current data analysis approaches. A range of strategies have been proposed in modalities such as electro-encephalography but gaining a fundamental insight into latent sources of trial-to-trial variability in neural recordings is still a major challenge. In this paper, we present a proof-of-concept study to the analysis of trial-to-trial variability dynamics founded on non-autonomous dynamical systems. At this initial stage, we evaluate the capacity of a simple statistic based on the behaviour of trajectories in classification settings, the trajectory coherence, in order to identify trial-to-trial dynamics. First, we derive the conditions leading to observable changes in datasets generated by a compact dynamical system (the Duffing equation). This canonical system plays the role of a ubiquitous model of non-stationary supervised classification problems. Second, we estimate the coherence of class-trajectories in empirically reconstructed space of system states. We show how this analysis can discern variations attributable to non-autonomous deterministic processes from stochastic fluctuations. The analyses are benchmarked using simulated and two different real datasets which have been shown to exhibit attractor dynamics. As an illustrative example, we focused on the analysis of the rat''s frontal cortex ensemble dynamics during a decision-making task. Results suggest that, in line with recent hypotheses, rather than internal noise, it is the deterministic trend which most likely underlies the observed trial-to-trial variability. Thus, the empirical tool developed within this study potentially allows us to infer the source of variability in in-vivo neural recordings.     

HIV Incidence in a Cohort of Women at Higher Risk in Beira,Mozambique: Prospective Study 2009–2012

Background

HIV is prevalent in Sofala Province, Mozambique. To inform future prevention research, we undertook a study in the provincial capital (Beira) to measure HIV incidence in women at higher risk of HIV and assess the feasibility of recruiting and retaining them as research participants.

Methods

Women age 18–35 were recruited from schools and places where women typically meet potential sexual partners. Eligibility criteria included HIV-seronegative status and self-report of at least 2 sexual partners in the last month. History of injection drug use was an exclusion criterion, but pregnancy was not. Participants were scheduled for monthly follow-up for 12 months, when they underwent face-to-face interviews, HIV counseling and testing, and pregnancy testing.

Results

387 women were eligible and contributed follow-up data. Most were from 18–24 years old (median 21). Around one-third of participants (33.8%) reported at least one new sexual partner in the last month. Most women (65.5%) reported not using a modern method of contraception at baseline. Twenty-two women seroconverted for a prospective HIV incidence of 6.5 per 100 woman-years (WY; 95% confidence interval (CI): 4.1–9.9). Factors associated with HIV seroconversion in the multivariable analysis were: number of vaginal sex acts without using condoms with partners besides primary partner in the last 7 days (hazard ratio (HR) 1.7; 95% CI: 1.2–2.5) and using a form of contraception at baseline other than hormonal or condoms (vs. no method; HR 25.3; 95% CI: 2.5–253.5). The overall retention rate was 80.0% for the entire follow-up period.

Conclusions

We found a high HIV incidence in a cohort of young women reporting risky sexual behavior in Beira, Mozambique. HIV prevention programs should be strengthened. Regular HIV testing and condom use should be encouraged, particularly among younger women with multiple sexual partners.     

Why Do Males in Scotland Die Younger than Those in England? Evidence from Three Prospective Cohort Studies

Background

To examine explanations for the higher rates of male mortality in two Scottish cohorts compared with a cohort in south-east England for which similar data were collected.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We compared three cohort studies which recruited participants in the late 1960s and early 1970s. A total of 13,884 men aged 45–64 years at recruitment in the Whitehall occupational cohort (south-east England), 3,956 men in the Collaborative occupational cohort and 6,813 men in the Renfrew & Paisley population-based study (both central Scotland) were included in analyses of all-cause and cause-specific mortality. All-cause mortality was 25% (age-adjusted hazard ratio 1.25, 95% confidence interval (CI)1.21 to 1.30) and 41% (hazard ratio 1.41 (95% CI 1.36 to 1.45) higher in the Collaborative and Renfrew & Paisley cohorts respectively compared to the Whitehall cohort. The higher mortality rates were substantially attenuated by social class (to 8% and 17% higher respectively), and were effectively eliminated upon the further addition of the other baseline risk factors, such as smoking habit, lung function and pre-existing self-reported morbidity. Despite this, coronary heart disease mortality remained 11% and 16% higher, stroke mortality 45% and 37% higher, mortality from accidents and suicide 51% and 70% higher, and alcohol-related mortality 46% and 73% higher in the Collaborative and Renfrew & Paisley cohorts respectively compared with the Whitehall cohort in the fully adjusted model.

Conclusions/Significance

The higher all-cause, respiratory, and lung cancer male mortality in the Scottish cohorts was almost entirely explained by social class differences and higher prevalence of known risk factors, but reasons for the excess mortality from stroke, alcohol-related causes, accidents and suicide remained unknown.     

Food Insecurity and Children’s Mental Health: A Prospective Birth Cohort Study

Food insecurity (which can be defined as inadequate access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets individuals’ dietary needs) is concurrently associated with children’s psychological difficulties. However, the predictive role of food insecurity with regard to specific types of children’s mental health symptoms has not previously been studied. We used data from the Longitudinal Study of Child Development in Québec, LSCDQ, a representative birth cohort study of children born in the Québec region, in Canada, in 1997–1998 (n = 2120). Family food insecurity was ascertained when children were 1½ and 4½ years old. Children’s mental health symptoms were assessed longitudinally using validated measures of behaviour at ages 4½, 5, 6 and 8 years. Symptom trajectory groups were estimated to identify children with persistently high levels of depression/anxiety (21.0%), aggression (26.2%), and hyperactivity/inattention (6.0%). The prevalence of food insecurity in the study was 5.9%. In sex-adjusted analyses, children from food-insecure families were disproportionately likely to experience persistent symptoms of depression/anxiety (OR: 1.79, 95% CI 1.15–2.79) and hyperactivity/inattention (OR: 3.06, 95% CI 1.68–5.55). After controlling for immigrant status, family structure, maternal age at child’s birth, family income, maternal and paternal education, prenatal tobacco exposure, maternal and paternal depression and negative parenting, only persistent hyperactivity/inattention remained associated with food insecurity (fully adjusted OR: 2.65, 95% CI 1.16–6.06). Family food insecurity predicts high levels of children’s mental health symptoms, particularly hyperactivity/inattention. Addressing food insecurity and associated problems in families could help reduce the burden of mental health problems in children and reduce social inequalities in development.     

How Can We Identify and Communicate the Ecological Value of Deep-Sea Ecosystem Services?

Submarine canyons are considered biodiversity hotspots which have been identified for their important roles in connecting the deep sea with shallower waters. To date, a huge gap exists between the high importance that scientists associate with deep-sea ecosystem services and the communication of this knowledge to decision makers and to the wider public, who remain largely ignorant of the importance of these services. The connectivity and complexity of marine ecosystems makes knowledge transfer very challenging, and new communication tools are necessary to increase understanding of ecological values beyond the science community. We show how the Ecosystem Principles Approach, a method that explains the importance of ocean processes via easily understandable ecological principles, might overcome this challenge for deep-sea ecosystem services. Scientists were asked to help develop a list of clear and concise ecosystem principles for the functioning of submarine canyons through a Delphi process to facilitate future transfers of ecological knowledge. These ecosystem principles describe ecosystem processes, link such processes to ecosystem services, and provide spatial and temporal information on the connectivity between deep and shallow waters. They also elucidate unique characteristics of submarine canyons. Our Ecosystem Principles Approach was successful in integrating ecological information into the ecosystem services assessment process. It therefore has a high potential to be the next step towards a wider implementation of ecological values in marine planning. We believe that successful communication of ecological knowledge is the key to a wider public support for ocean conservation, and that this endeavour has to be driven by scientists in their own interest as major deep-sea stakeholders.     

Does the Benefit on Survival from Leisure Time Physical Activity Depend on Physical Activity at Work? A Prospective Cohort Study

Purpose

To investigate if persons with high physical activity at work have the same benefits from leisure time physical activity as persons with sedentary work.

Methods

In the Copenhagen City Heart Study, a prospective cohort of 7,411 males and 8,916 females aged 25–66 years without known cardiovascular disease at entry in 1976–78, 1981–83, 1991–94, or 2001–03, the authors analyzed with sex-stratified multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression the association between leisure time physical activity and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality among individuals with different levels of occupational physical activity.

Results

During a median follow-up of 22.4 years, 4,003 individuals died from cardiovascular disease and 8,935 from all-causes. Irrespective of level of occupational physical activity, a consistently lower risk with increasing leisure time physical activity was found for both cardiovascular and all-cause mortality among both men and women. Compared to low leisure time physical activity, the survival benefit ranged from 1.5–3.6 years for moderate and 2.6–4.7 years for high leisure time physical activity among the different levels of occupational physical activity.

Conclusion

Public campaigns and initiatives for increasing physical activity in the working population should target everybody, irrespective of physical activity at work.     

A Prospective Study of Seasonal Variation in Shift‐Work Tolerance

Seasonal effects on shift‐work tolerance were assessed using the Standardized Shiftwork Index and the 21‐item Hamilton Depression Scale. Participants (N=88) mainly worked a two‐day, two‐night, four‐off rotation with 12 h shifts changing at 06∶00 and 18∶00 h in Vancouver, Canada. At this latitude (～49° N), daylength varies seasonally from ～16 to ～8 h, and both daily commutes occur in the dark in mid‐winter and in sunlight in mid‐summer. Questionnaires were completed twice, near the summer and winter solstices (order counterbalanced). Outcome variables were mood, general psychological health, sleep quality, chronic fatigue, physical health, job satisfaction, and social and domestic disruption. Of these, general psychological health and mood were significantly worse in winter, while sleep was more disturbed in summer. In winter, 31% exceeded the cutoff for psychological distress, and >70% scored in the higher than normal range for depressive symptoms. In summer, the proportions dropped to 19% and 53%, respectively. Measures of physical health and psychosocial well‐being showed no seasonal effects. Relationships among explanatory and outcome variables, assessed by linear regression and canonical correlations, were also stable across season. Neuroticism was the strongest predictor of tolerance to shift work. Age was predictive only of sleep disturbance in both summer and winter. These results indicate that time of year can affect important outcome measures in shift‐work assessment and intervention studies. The high average scores on measures of psychological distress and depression in winter suggest that at northern latitudes, some shift schedules may increase the risk of seasonal‐type depression.     

Effects of Antenatal Maternal Depression and Anxiety on Children’s Early Cognitive Development: A Prospective Cohort Study

Introduction

Studies have shown that depression or anxiety occur in 10–20% of pregnant women. These disorders are often undertreated and may affect mothers and children’s health. This study investigates the relation between antenatal maternal depression, anxiety and children’s early cognitive development among 1380 two-year-old children and 1227 three-year-old children.

Methods

In the French EDEN Mother-Child Cohort Study, language ability was assessed with the Communicative Development Inventory at 2 years of age and overall development with the Ages and Stages Questionnaire at 3 years of age. Multiple regressions and structural equation modeling were used to examine links between depression, anxiety during pregnancy and child cognitive development.

Results

We found strong significant associations between maternal antenatal anxiety and poorer children’s cognitive development at 2 and 3 years. Antenatal maternal depression was not associated with child development, except when antenatal maternal anxiety was also present. Both postnatal maternal depression and parental stimulation appeared to play mediating roles in the relation between antenatal maternal anxiety and children’s cognitive development. At 3 years, parental stimulation mediated 13.2% of the effect of antenatal maternal anxiety while postnatal maternal depression mediated 26.5%.

Discussion

The partial nature of these effects suggests that other mediators may play a role. Implications for theory and research on child development are discussed.     

Two Decades of River Restoration in California: What Can We Learn?

As part of the National River Restoration Science Synthesis (NRRSS), we developed a summary database of 4,023 stream restoration projects built in California since 1980, from which we randomly selected 44 records for in‐depth interviews with project managers. Despite substantial difficulties in gathering the data, we were able to draw conclusions about current design, implementation, monitoring, and evaluation practices used in California projects and compare them with national trends. Although more than half of the projects for which we conducted interviews were located in watersheds for which a management or assessment plan had been prepared, these plans had a limited impact on site selection. We also found that the state lacks a consistent framework for design, monitoring, and reporting restoration projects, and that although monitoring is far more widespread than the information in the NRRSS summary database would suggest, there are still problems with the type, duration, and reporting of monitoring. The general lack of systematic, objective assessment of completed projects hinders the advance of restoration science.     

Predictors of In Vitro Fertilization Outcomes in Women with Highest Follicle-Stimulating Hormone Levels ≥12 IU/L: A Prospective Cohort Study

Objective

The purpose of this study is to evaluate factors predictive of outcomes in women with highest follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) levels ≥12 IU/L on basal testing, undergoing in vitro fertilization (IVF).

Methods

A prospective cohort study was conducted at Stanford University Hospital in the Reproductive Endocrinology and Infertility Center for 12 months. Women age 21 to 43 undergoing IVF with highest FSH levels on baseline testing were included. Donor/Recipient and frozen embryo cycles were excluded from this study. Prognostic factors evaluated in association with clinical pregnancy rates were type of infertility diagnosis and IVF stimulation parameters.

Results

The current study found that factors associated with clinical pregnancy were: increased number of mature follicles on the day of triggering, number of oocytes retrieved, number of Metaphase II oocytes if intracytoplasmic sperm injection was done, and number of embryos developed 24 hours after retrieval.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that it would be beneficial for women with increased FSH levels to attempt a cycle of IVF. Results of ovarian stimulation, especially embryo quantity appear to be the best predictors of IVF outcomes and those can only be obtained from a cycle of IVF. Therefore, increased basal FSH levels should not discourage women from attempting a cycle of IVF.     

Baseline Serum Osteopontin Levels Predict the Clinical Effectiveness of Tocilizumab but Not Infliximab in Biologic-Na?ve Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Single-Center Prospective Study at 1 Year (the Keio First-Bio Cohort Study)

ObjectiveTo explore the baseline predictors of clinical effectiveness after tocilizumab or infliximab treatment in biologic-naïve rheumatoid arthritis patients.MethodsConsecutive biologic-naïve patients with rheumatoid arthritis initiating infliximab (n = 57) or tocilizumab (n = 70) treatment were included in our prospective cohort study. Our cohort started in February 2010, and the patients observed for at least 1 year as of April 2013 were analysed. We assessed baseline variables including patients'' characteristics (age, sex, disease duration, prednisolone dose, methotrexate dose, other disease-modifying antirheumatic drug use, Clinical Disease Activity Index [CDAI]) and serum biomarker levels (C-reactive protein, immunoglobulin M-rheumatoid factor, anti-cyclic citrullinated protein/peptide antibodies, interferon-γ, interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-2, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, IL-17, tumor necrosis factor-α, soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1, bone alkaline phosphatase, osteonectin, osteopontin) to extract factors associated with clinical remission (CDAI≤2.8) at 1 year using univariate analyses, and the extracted factors were entered into a multivariate logistic regression model. Similar analyses were also performed for Simplified Disease Activity Index (SDAI) remission (≤3.3) and Disease Activity Score with 28 joint counts, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (DAS28-ESR) remission (<2.6).ResultsThere were no significant differences in the baseline characteristics except for methotrexate use between the groups. In the multivariate analyses, the low baseline osteopontin levels (OR 0.9145, 95% CI 0.8399–0.9857) were identified as predictors of CDAI remission in the tocilizumab group, whereas no predictors of CDAI remission were found in the infliximab group. Similar results were obtained when using SDAI and DAS28-ESR remission criteria.ConclusionBaseline low serum osteopontin levels predict clinical remission 1 year after tocilizumab treatment and not infliximab treatment in biologic-naïve patients with rheumatoid arthritis. Our prediction model provided insights into how to optimize the choice of biologics and warrants external validation in other cohorts.     

Parkinson’s Disease and Risk of Fracture: A Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies

Backgrounds/Objective

Parkinson’s disease (PD) is the second most common neurodegenerative disease among the elderly population. However, epidemiological evidence on the relationship of PD with risk of fracture has not been systematically assessed. Therefore, we performed this meta-analysis of prospective studies to explore the association between PD and risk of fracture.

Methods

PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane Library up to February 26, 2014 were searched to identify eligible studies. Random-effects model was used to pool the results.

Results

Six studies that totally involved 69,387 participants were included for analysis. Overall, PD patients had an increased risk of fracture compared with control subjects (pooled hazard ratio = 2.66, 95% confidence interval: 2.10–3.36). No publication bias was observed across studies and the subgroup as well as sensitivity analysis suggested that the general results were robust.

Conclusion

The present study suggested that PD is associated with an increased risk of fracture. However, given the limited number and moderate quality of included studies, well-designed prospective cohort studies are required to confirm the findings from this meta-analysis.     

Gestational Age at Birth and ‘Body-Mind’ Health at 5 Years of Age: A Population Based Cohort Study

Numerous studies have identified the effects of prematurity on the neonate’s physical health, however few studies have explored the effects of prematurity on both the physical and mental health of the child as they develop. Secondary analysis of data from the Millennium Cohort Study, a longitudinal study of infants (n = 18 818, born 2000–2002 in the United Kingdom) was performed. Effects of gestational age at birth on health outcomes at 5 years were measured using parental rating of their children’s general health and severity of behavior problems. The association between parent’s general health ratings and behavior problem ratings was low: 86% of those reporting serious behavior problems (5% of the sample, n = 764) rated their child as being in excellent, very good, or good health. Still, a gradient of increasing risk of poorer outcome with decreasing gestational age was observed for a composite health measure (poor/fair health and/or serious behavior problems), suggesting an association with prematurity for this composite assessment of health status. The greatest contribution to the childhood composite health measure at 5 years was for children born at 32–36 weeks gestation: population attributable fractions for having poor outcomes was 3.4% (Bonferroni-adjusted 95% confidence interval 1.1%–6.2%), compared to 1% (0.2–2.3) for birth at less than 32 weeks. Results suggest that preterm children, by school entry, are not only at high risk of physical health problems, but also of behavioral health problems. The recognition of, and response to comprehensive health and well-being outcomes related to prematurity are important in order to correctly plan and deliver adequate paediatric health services and policies.     

Increased Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in Patients with Primary Fibromyalgia and Those with Concomitant Comorbidity—A Taiwanese Population-Based Cohort Study

Objectives

Fibromyalgia has seldom been associated with coronary heart disease (CHD). The aim of this study was to evaluate the risk of CHD in patients with fibromyalgia.

Methods

We used a dataset of one million participants, systemically scrambled from the Taiwanese national insurance beneficiaries, to identify 61,612 patients with incident fibromyalgia (ICD-9-CM 729.0–729.1) and 184,834 reference subjects matched by sex, age and index date of diagnosis in a 1:3 ratio from 2000 to 2005, with a mean 8.86 ± 2.68 years of follow-up until 2011. Risk of CHD was analyzed by Cox proportional hazard modeling.

Results

Patients with fibromyalgia had a mean age of 44.1 ± 16.5 years. CHD events developed in fibromyalgia patients (n = 8,280; 15.2 per 10³ person-years) and reference subjects (n = 15,162; 9.26 per 10³ person-years) with a significant incidence rate ratio of 1.64 (95% confidence interval: 1.61–1.68). The adjusted hazard ratio for CHD in fibromyalgia patients relative to reference subjects was 1.47 (1.43–1.51), after adjusting for age, gender, occupation, monthly income, traditional cardiovascular comorbidities, depression and anxiety. We noted that fibromyalgia and cardiovascular comorbidities had a significant interaction effect on CHD risk (p for interaction <0.01), which was markedly enhanced in fibromyalgia patients with concomitant comorbidities relative to patients with primary fibromyalgia and reference subjects (no fibromyalgia, no comorbidity).

Conclusions

Our report shows that fibromyalgia patients have an independent risk for CHD development. Fibromyalgia patients with concomitant comorbidities have markedly increased CHD risk relative to those with primary fibromyalgia.