Performance of SAPS II and SAPS 3 in Intermediate Care

Objective

The efficacy and reliability of prognostic scores has been described extensively for intensive care, but their role for predicting mortality in intermediate care patients is uncertain. To provide more information in this field, we have analyzed the performance of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II and SAPS 3 in a single center intermediate care unit (ImCU).

Materials and Methods

Cohort study with prospectively collected data from all patients admitted to a single center ImCU in Pamplona, Spain, from April 2006 to April 2012. The SAPS II and SAPS 3 scores with respective predicted mortality rates were calculated according to standard coefficients. Discrimination was evaluated by calculating the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and calibration with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test. Standardized mortality ratios (SMR) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were calculated for each model.

Results

The study included 607 patients. The observed in-hospital mortality was 20.1% resulting in a SMR of 0.87 (95% CI 0.73-1.04) for SAPS II and 0.56 (95% CI 0.47-0.67) for SAPS 3. Both scores showed acceptable discrimination, with an AUROC of 0.76 (95% CI 0.71-0.80) for SAPS II and 0.75 (95% CI 0.71- 0.80) for SAPS 3. Calibration curves showed similar performance based on Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit C-test: (X²=12.9, p=0.113) for SAPS II and (X²=4.07, p=0.851) for SAPS 3.

Conclusions

Although both scores overpredicted mortality, SAPS II showed better discrimination for patients admitted to ImCU in terms of SMR.     

Design and Performance of a New Severity Score for Intermediate Care

Background

Application of illness-severity scores in Intermediate Care Units (ImCU) shows conflicting results. The aim of the study is to design a severity-of-illness score for patients admitted to an ImCU.

Methods

We performed a retrospective observational study in a single academic medical centre in Pamplona, Spain. Demographics, past medical history, reasons for admission, physiological parameters at admission and during the first 24 hours of ImCU stay, laboratory variables and survival to hospital discharge were recorded. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify variables for mortality prediction.

Results

A total of 743 patients were included. The final multivariable model (derivation cohort = 554 patients) contained only 9 variables obtained at admission to the ImCU: previous length of stay 7 days (6 points), health-care related infection (11), metastatic cancer (9), immunosuppressive therapy (6), Glasgow comma scale 12 (10), need of non-invasive ventilation (14), platelets 50000/mcL (9), urea 0.6 g/L (10) and bilirubin 4 mg/dL (9). The ImCU severity score (ImCUSS) is generated by summing the individual point values, and the formula for determining the expected in-hospital mortality risk is: e^{ImCUSS points*0.099 – 4,111} / (1 + e^{ImCUSS points*0.099 – 4,11}1). The model showed adequate calibration and discrimination. Performance of ImCUSS (validation cohort = 189 patients) was comparable to that of SAPS II and 3. Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit C test was χ² 8.078 (p=0.326) and the area under receiver operating curve 0.802.

Conclusions

ImCUSS, specially designed for intermediate care, is based on easy to obtain variables at admission to ImCU. Additionally, it shows a notable performance in terms of calibration and mortality discrimination.     

Performance of Three Prognostic Models in Patients with Cancer in Need of Intensive Care in a Medical Center in China

Objective

The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS 3), and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV (APACHE IV) in patients with cancer admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) in a single medical center in China.

Materials and Methods

This is a retrospective observational cohort study including nine hundred and eighty one consecutive patients over a 2-year period.

Results

The hospital mortality rate was 4.5%. When all 981 patients were evaluated, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC, 95% Confidential Intervals) of the three models in predicting hospital mortality were 0.948 (0.914–0.982), 0.863 (0.804–0.923), and 0.873 (0.813–0.934) for SAPS 3, APACHE II and APACHE IV respectively. The p values of Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics for the models were 0.759, 0.900 and 0.878 for SAPS 3, APACHE II and APACHE IV respectively. However, SAPS 3 and APACHE IV underestimated the in-hospital mortality with standardized mortality ratio (SMR) of 1.5 and 1.17 respectively, while APACHE II overestimated the in-hospital mortality with SMR of 0.72. Further analysis showed that discrimination power was better with SAPS 3 than with APACHE II and APACHE IV whether for emergency surgical and medical patients (AUROC of 0.912 vs 0.866 and 0.857) or for scheduled surgical patients (AUROC of 0.945 vs 0.834 and 0.851). Calibration was good for all models (all p > 0.05) whether for scheduled surgical patients or emergency surgical and medical patients. However, in terms of SMR, SAPS 3 was both accurate in predicting the in-hospital mortality for emergency surgical and medical patients and for scheduled surgical patients, while APACHE IV and APACHE II were not.

Conclusion

In this cohort, we found that APACHE II, APACHE IV and SAPS 3 models had good discrimination and calibration ability in predicting in-hospital mortality of critically ill patients with cancer in need of intensive care. Of these three severity scores, SAPS 3 was superior to APACHE II and APACHE IV, whether in terms of discrimination and calibration power, or standardized mortality ratios.     

GRACE Score among Six Risk Scoring Systems (CADILLAC,PAMI, TIMI,Dynamic TIMI,Zwolle) Demonstrated the Best Predictive Value for Prediction of Long-Term Mortality in Patients with ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction

Aim

To compare the prognostic accuracy of six scoring models for up to three-year mortality and rates of hospitalisation due to acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) in STEMI patients.

Methods and Results

A total of 593 patients treated with primary PCI were evaluated. Prospective follow-up of patients was ≥3 years. Thirty-day, one-year, two-year, and three-year mortality rates were 4.0%, 7.3%, 8.9%, and 10.6%, respectively. Six risk scores—the TIMI score and derived dynamic TIMI, CADILLAC, PAMI, Zwolle, and GRACE—showed a high predictive accuracy for six- and 12-month mortality with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of 0.73–0.85. The best predictive values for long-term mortality were obtained by GRACE. The next best-performing scores were CADILLAC, Zwolle, and Dynamic TIMI. All risk scores had a lower prediction accuracy for repeat hospitalisation due to ADHF, except Zwolle with the discriminatory capacity for hospitalisation up to two years (AUC, 0.80–0.83).

Conclusions

All tested models showed a high predictive value for the estimation of one-year mortality, but GRACE appears to be the most suitable for the prediction for a longer follow-up period. The tested models exhibited an ability to predict the risk of ADHF, especially the Zwolle model.     

A Second Look at the Association between Gender and Mortality on Antiretroviral Therapy

Objective

We assessed the association between gender and mortality on antiretroviral therapy (ART) using identical models with and without sex-specific categories for weight and hemoglobin.

Design

Cohort study of adult patients on ART.

Setting

GHESKIO Clinic in Port-au-Prince, Haiti.

Participants

4,717 ART-naïve adult patients consecutively enrolled on ART at GHESKIO from 2003 to 2008.

Main Outcome Measure

Mortality on ART; multivariable analyses were conducted with and without sex-specific categories for weight and hemoglobin.

Results

In Haiti, male gender was associated with mortality (OR 1.61; 95% CI: 1.30–2.00) in multivariable analyses with hemoglobin and weight included as control variables, but not when sex-specific interactions with hemoglobin and weight were used.

Conclusions

If sex-specific categories are omitted, multivariable analyses indicate a higher risk of mortality for males vs. females of the same weight and hemoglobin. However, because males have higher normal values for weight and hemoglobin, the males in this comparison would generally have poorer health status than the females. This may explain why gender differences in mortality are sometimes observed after controlling for differences in baseline variables when gender-specific interactions with weight and hemoglobin are omitted.     

30-Day Mortality in Acute Pulmonary Embolism: Prognostic Value of Clinical Scores and Anamnestic Features

Purpose

Identification of high-risk patients with pulmonary embolism is vital. The aim of the present study was to examine clinical scores, their single items, and anamnestic features in their ability to predict 30-day mortality.

Materials and Methods

A retrospective, single-center study from 06/2005 to 01/2010 was performed. Inclusion criteria were presence of pulmonary embolism, availability of patient records and 30-day follow-up. The following clinical scores were calculated: Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, original and simplified pulmonary embolism severity index, Glasgow Coma Scale, and euroSCORE II.

Results

In the study group of 365 patients 39 patients (10.7%) died within 30 days due to pulmonary embolism. From all examined scores and parameters the best predictor of 30-day mortality were the Glasgow Coma scale (≤ 10) and parameters of the circulatory system including presence of mechanical ventilation, arterial pH (< 7.335), and systolic blood pressure (< 99 mm Hg).

Conclusions

Easy to ascertain circulatory parameters have the same or higher prognostic value than the clinical scores that were applied in this study. From all clinical scores studied the Glasgow Coma Scale was the most time- and cost-efficient one.     

Noninvasive Mechanical Ventilation Improves Breathing-Swallowing Interaction of Ventilator Dependent Neuromuscular Patients: A Prospective Crossover Study

Background

Respiratory involvement in neuromuscular disorders may contribute to impaired breathing-swallowing interactions, swallowing disorders and malnutrition. We investigated whether the use of non-invasive ventilation (NIV) controlled by the patient could improve swallowing performances in a population of neuromuscular patients requiring daytime NIV.

Methods

Ten neuromuscular patients with severe respiratory failure requiring extensive NIV use were studied while swallowing without and with NIV (while ventilated with a modified ventilator allowing the patient to withhold ventilation as desired). Breathing-swallowing interactions were investigated by chin electromyography, cervical piezoelectric sensor, nasal flow recording and inductive plethysmography. Two water-bolus sizes (5 and 10ml) and a textured yogurt bolus were tested in a random order.

Results

NIV use significantly improved swallowing fragmentation (defined as the number of respiratory interruption of the swallowing of a single bolus) (p = 0.003) and breathing-swallowing synchronization (with a significant increase of swallows followed by an expiration) (p <0.0001). Patient exhibited piecemeal swallowing which was not influenced by NIV use (p = 0.07). NIV use also significantly reduced dyspnea during swallowing (p = 0.04) while preserving swallowing comfort, regardless of bolus type.

Conclusion

The use of patient controlled NIV improves swallowing parameters in patients with severe neuromuscular respiratory failure requiring daytime NIV, without impairing swallowing comfort.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT01519388","term_id":"NCT01519388"}}NCT01519388     

Increased Plasma Levels of Heparin-Binding Protein on Admission to Intensive Care Are Associated with Respiratory and Circulatory Failure

Purpose

Heparin-binding protein (HBP) is released by granulocytes and has been shown to increase vascular permeability in experimental investigations. Increased vascular permeability in the lungs can lead to fluid accumulation in alveoli and respiratory failure. A generalized increase in vascular permeability leads to loss of circulating blood volume and circulatory failure. We hypothesized that plasma concentrations of HBP on admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) would be associated with decreased oxygenation or circulatory failure.

Methods

This is a prospective, observational study in a mixed 8-bed ICU. We investigated concentrations of HBP in plasma at admission to the ICU from 278 patients. Simplified acute physiology score (SAPS) 3 was recorded on admission. Sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores were recorded daily for three days.

Results

Median SAPS 3 was 58.8 (48–70) and 30-day mortality 64/278 (23%). There was an association between high plasma concentrations of HBP on admission with decreased oxygenation (p<0.001) as well as with circulatory failure (p<0.001), after 48–72 hours in the ICU. There was an association between concentrations of HBP on admission and 30-day mortality (p = 0.002). ROC curves showed areas under the curve of 0,62 for decreased oxygenation, 0,65 for circulatory failure and 0,64 for mortality.

Conclusions

A high concentration of HBP in plasma on admission to the ICU is associated with respiratory and circulatory failure later during the ICU care period. It is also associated with increased 30-day mortality. Despite being an interesting biomarker for the composite ICU population it´s predictive value at the individual patient level is low.     

Mortality following Stroke,the Weekend Effect and Related Factors: Record Linkage Study

Background

Increased mortality following hospitalisation for stroke has been reported from many but not all studies that have investigated a ‘weekend effect’ for stroke. However, it is not known whether the weekend effect is affected by factors including hospital size, season and patient distance from hospital.

Objective

To assess changes over time in mortality following hospitalisation for stroke and how any increased mortality for admissions on weekends is related to factors including the size of the hospital, seasonal factors and distance from hospital.

Methods

A population study using person linked inpatient, mortality and primary care data for stroke from 2004 to 2012. The outcome measures were, firstly, mortality at seven days and secondly, mortality at 30 days and one year.

Results

Overall mortality for 37 888 people hospitalised following stroke was 11.6% at seven days, 21.4% at 30 days and 37.7% at one year. Mortality at seven and 30 days fell significantly by 1.7% and 3.1% per annum respectively from 2004 to 2012. When compared with week days, mortality at seven days was increased significantly by 19% for admissions on weekends, although the admission rate was 21% lower on weekends. Although not significant, there were indications of increased mortality at seven days for weekend admissions during winter months (31%), in community (81%) rather than large hospitals (8%) and for patients resident furthest from hospital (32% for distances of >20 kilometres). The weekend effect was significantly increased (by 39%) for strokes of ‘unspecified’ subtype.

Conclusions

Mortality following stroke has fallen over time. Mortality was increased for admissions at weekends, when compared with normal week days, but may be influenced by a higher stroke severity threshold for admission on weekends. Other than for unspecified strokes, we found no significant variation in the weekend effect for hospital size, season and distance from hospital.     

Midregional Proadrenomedullin Improves Risk Stratification beyond Surgical Risk Scores in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement

Background

Conventional surgical risk scores lack accuracy in risk stratification of patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR).Elevated levels of midregional proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM) levels are associated with adverse outcome not only in patients with manifest chronic disease states, but also in the general population.

Objectives

We investigated the predictive value of MR-proADM for mortality in an unselected contemporary TAVR population.

Methods

We prospectively included 153 patients suffering from severe aortic stenosis who underwent TAVR from September 2013 to August 2014. This population was compared to an external validation cohort of 205 patients with severe aortic stenosis undergoing TAVR. The primary endpoint was all cause mortality.

Results

During a median follow-up of 258 days, 17 out of 153 patients who underwent TAVR died (11%). Patients with MR-proADM levels above the 75^th percentile (≥ 1.3 nmol/l) had higher mortality (31% vs. 4%, HR 8.9, 95% CI 3.0–26.0, P < 0.01), whereas patients with EuroSCORE II scores above the 75^th percentile (> 6.8) only showed a trend towards higher mortality (18% vs. 9%, HR 2.1, 95% CI 0.8–5.6, P = 0.13). The Harrell’s C-statistic was 0.58 (95% CI 0.45–0.82) for the EuroSCORE II, and consideration of baseline MR-proADM levels significantly improved discrimination (AUC = 0.84, 95% CI 0.71–0.92, P = 0.01). In bivariate analysis adjusted for EuroSCORE II, MR-proADM levels ≥1.3 nmol/l persisted as an independent predictor of mortality (HR 9.9, 95% CI (3.1–31.3), P <0.01) and improved the model’s net reclassification index (0.89, 95% CI (0.28–1.59). These results were confirmed in the independent validation cohort.

Conclusions

Our study identified MR-proADM as a novel predictor of mortality in patients undergoing TAVR. In the future, MR-proADM should be added to the commonly used EuroSCORE II for better risk stratification of patients suffering from severe aortic stenosis.     

Early Initiation of ARV During Pregnancy to Move towards Virtual Elimination of Mother-to-Child-Transmission of HIV-1 in Yunnan,China

Objective

To identify factors associated with mother-to-child-transmission and late access to prevention of maternal to child transmission (PMTCT) services among HIV-infected women; and risk factors for infant mortality among HIV-exposed infants in order to assess the feasibility of virtual elimination of vertical transmission and pediatric HIV in this setting.

Design

Observational study evaluating the impact of a provincial PMTCT program.

Methods

The intervention was implemented in 26 counties of Yunnan Province, China at municipal and tertiary health care settings. Log linear regression models with generalized estimating equations were used to identify unadjusted and adjusted correlates for late ARV intervention and MTCT. Cox proportional hazard models with robust sandwich estimation were applied to examine correlates of infant mortality.

Results

Mother-to-child- transmission rate of HIV was controlled to 2%, with late initiation of maternal ARV showing a strong association with vertical transmission and infant mortality. Risk factors for late initiation of maternal ARV were age, ethnicity, education, and having a husband not tested for HIV. Mortality rate among HIV-exposed infants was 2.9/100 person-years. In addition to late initiation of maternal ARV, ethnicity, low birth weight and preterm birth were associated with infant mortality.

Conclusions

This PMTCT program in Yunnan achieved low rates of MTCT. However the infant mortality rate in this cohort of HIV-exposed children was almost three times the provincial rate. Virtual elimination of MTCT of HIV is an achievable goal in China, but more attention needs to be paid to HIV-free survival.     

Evaluation of Pneumonia Severity and Acute Physiology Scores to Predict ICU Admission and Mortality in Patients Hospitalized for Influenza

Background

The demand for inpatient medical services increases during influenza season. A scoring system capable of identifying influenza patients at low risk death or ICU admission could help clinicians make hospital admission decisions.

Methods

Hospitalized patients with laboratory confirmed influenza were identified over 3 influenza seasons at 25 Ontario hospitals. Each patient was assigned a score for 6 pneumonia severity and 2 sepsis scores using the first data available following their registration in the emergency room. In-hospital mortality and ICU admission were the outcomes. Score performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the sensitivity and specificity for identifying low risk patients (risk of outcome <5%).

Results

The cohort consisted of 607 adult patients. Mean age was 76 years, 12% of patients died (71/607) and 9% required ICU care (55/607). None of the scores examined demonstrated good discriminatory ability (AUC≥0.80). The Pneumonia Severity Index (AUC 0.78, 95% CI 0.72–0.83) and the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis score (AUC 0.77, 95% 0.71–0.83) demonstrated fair predictive ability (AUC≥0.70) for in-hospital mortality. The best predictor of ICU admission was SMART-COP (AUC 0.73, 95% CI 0.67–0.79). All other scores were poor predictors (AUC <0.70) of either outcome. If patients classified as low risk for in-hospital mortality using the PSI were discharged, 35% of admissions would have been avoided.

Conclusions

None of the scores studied were good predictors of in-hospital mortality or ICU admission. The PSI and MEDS score were fair predictors of death and if these results are validated, their use could reduce influenza admission rates significantly.     

Identifying Patients with Bacteremia in Community-Hospital Emergency Rooms: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Objectives

(1) To develop a clinical prediction rule to identify patients with bacteremia, using only information that is readily available in the emergency room (ER) of community hospitals, and (2) to test the validity of that rule with a separate, independent set of data.

Design

Multicenter retrospective cohort study.

Setting

To derive the clinical prediction rule we used data from 3 community hospitals in Japan (derivation). We tested the rule using data from one other community hospital (validation), which was not among the three “derivation” hospitals.

Participants

Adults (age ≥ 16 years old) who had undergone blood-culture testing while in the ER between April 2011 and March 2012. For the derivation data, n = 1515 (randomly sampled from 7026 patients), and for the validation data n = 467 (from 823 patients).

Analysis

We analyzed 28 candidate predictors of bacteremia, including demographic data, signs and symptoms, comorbid conditions, and basic laboratory data. Chi-square tests and multiple logistic regression were used to derive an integer risk score (the “ID-BactER” score). Sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (i.e., the AUC) were computed.

Results

There were 241 cases of bacteremia in the derivation data. Eleven candidate predictors were used in the ID-BactER score: age, chills, vomiting, mental status, temperature, systolic blood pressure, abdominal sign, white blood-cell count, platelets, blood urea nitrogen, and C-reactive protein. The AUCs was 0.80 (derivation) and 0.74 (validation). For ID-BactER scores ≥ 2, the sensitivities for derivation and validation data were 98% and 97%, and specificities were 20% and 14%, respectively.

Conclusions

The ID-BactER score can be computed from information that is readily available in the ERs of community hospitals. Future studies should focus on developing a score with a higher specificity while maintaining the desired sensitivity.     

Antipyretic Therapy in Critically Ill Patients with Sepsis: An Interaction with Body Temperature

Background and Objective

The effect of antipyretic therapy on mortality in patients with sepsis remains undetermined. The present study aimed to investigate the role of antipyretic therapy in ICU patients with sepsis by using a large clinical database.

Methods

The multiparameter intelligent monitoring in intensive care II (MIMIC- II) database was employed for the study. Adult patients with sepsis were included for analysis. Antipyretic therapy included antipyretic medication and external cooling. Multivariable model with interaction terms were employed to explore the association of antipyretic therapy and mortality risk.

Main Results

A total of 15,268 patients fulfilled inclusion criteria and were included in the study. In multivariable model by treating temperature as a continuous variable, there was significant interaction between antipyretic therapy and the maximum temperature (T_max). While antipyretic therapy had no significant effect on mortality in low temperature quintiles, antipyretic therapy was associated with increased risk of death in the quintile with body temperature >39°C (OR: 1.29, 95% CI: 1.04–1.61).

Conclusion

Our study shows that there is no beneficial effect on reducing mortality risk with the use of antipyretic therapy in ICU patients with sepsis. External cooling may even be harmful in patients with sepsis.     

Islet Oxygen Consumption Rate (OCR) Dose Predicts Insulin Independence in Clinical Islet Autotransplantation

Background

Reliable in vitro islet quality assessment assays that can be performed routinely, prospectively, and are able to predict clinical transplant outcomes are needed. In this paper we present data on the utility of an assay based on cellular oxygen consumption rate (OCR) in predicting clinical islet autotransplant (IAT) insulin independence (II). IAT is an attractive model for evaluating characterization assays regarding their utility in predicting II due to an absence of confounding factors such as immune rejection and immunosuppressant toxicity.

Methods

Membrane integrity staining (FDA/PI), OCR normalized to DNA (OCR/DNA), islet equivalent (IE) and OCR (viable IE) normalized to recipient body weight (IE dose and OCR dose), and OCR/DNA normalized to islet size index (ISI) were used to characterize autoislet preparations (n = 35). Correlation between pre-IAT islet product characteristics and II was determined using receiver operating characteristic analysis.

Results

Preparations that resulted in II had significantly higher OCR dose and IE dose (p<0.001). These islet characterization methods were highly correlated with II at 6–12 months post-IAT (area-under-the-curve (AUC) = 0.94 for IE dose and 0.96 for OCR dose). FDA/PI (AUC = 0.49) and OCR/DNA (AUC = 0.58) did not correlate with II. OCR/DNA/ISI may have some utility in predicting outcome (AUC = 0.72).

Conclusions

Commonly used assays to determine whether a clinical islet preparation is of high quality prior to transplantation are greatly lacking in sensitivity and specificity. While IE dose is highly predictive, it does not take into account islet cell quality. OCR dose, which takes into consideration both islet cell quality and quantity, may enable a more accurate and prospective evaluation of clinical islet preparations.     

Target Values of Cardiovascular Risk Factors Are Not Associated with All-Cause Mortality in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Background

To investigate prospectively the relationship between target values of glycated hemoglobin, blood pressure and LDL-cholesterol, as considered in a combined fashion, and all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Methods

Two cohorts of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, the Gargano Mortality Study (n=810) and the Foggia Mortality Study (n=929), were investigated. A weighted target risk score was built as a weight linear combination of the recommended targets reached by each patient.

Results

In the Gargano Mortality Study and in the Foggia Mortality Study (mean follow up=7.4 and 5.5 years, respectively), 161 (19.9%) and 220 (23.7%) patients died, with an age and sex adjusted annual incidence rate of 2.1 and 2.8 per 100 person-years, respectively. In both study samples the weighted target risk score tended to be linearly associated with all-cause mortality (HR for one point increment=1.30, 95% CI: 1.11-1.53, p=0.001, and HR=1.08, 95% CI: 0.95-1.24, p=0.243, respectively). When the two cohorts were pooled and analyzed together, a clear association between weighted target risk score and all-cause mortality was observed (HR for one point increment=1.17, 95% CI:1.05-1.30, p=0.004). This counterintuitive association was no longer observable in a model including age, sex, body mass index, smoking habit, estimated glomerular filtration rate, albuminuria and anti-diabetic, anti-hypertensive and anti-dyslipidemic treatment as covariates (HR for one point increment=0.99, 95% CI: 0.87-1.12, p=0.852).

Conclusions

In a real life clinical set of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, the combination of recommended target values of established cardiovascular risk factors is not associated with all-cause mortality.     

Association of Urinary Cadmium with Mortality in Patients at a Coronary Care Unit

Background

Determine the effect of the day 1 urinary excretion of cadmium (D1-UE-Cd) on mortality of patients admitted to a coronary care unit (CCU).

Methods

A total of 323 patients were enrolled in this 6-month study. Urine and blood samples were taken within 24 h after CCU admission. Demographic data, clinical diagnoses, and hospital mortality were recorded. The scores of established systems for prediction of mortality in critically ill patients were calculated.

Results

Compared with survivors (n = 289), non-survivors (n = 34) had higher levels of D1-UE-Cd. Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis indicated that D1-UE-Cd was positively associated with pulse rate and level of aspartate aminotransferase, but negatively associated with serum albumin level. Multivariate Cox analysis, with adjustment for other significant variables and measurements from mortality scoring systems, indicated that respiratory rate and D1-UE-Cd were independent and significant predictors of mortality. For each 1 μg/day increase of D1-UE-Cd, the hazard ratio for CCU mortality was 3.160 (95% confidence interval: 1.944–5.136, p < 0.001). The chi-square value of Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test for D1-UE-Cd was 10.869 (p = 0.213). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for D1-UE-Cd was 0.87 (95% confidence interval: 0.81–0.93).

Conclusions

The D1-UE-Cd, an objective variable with no inter-observer variability, accurately predicted hospital mortality of CCU patients and outperformed other established scoring systems. Further studies are needed to determine the physiological mechanism of the effect of cadmium on mortality in CCU patients.     

Mortality Prediction in the Oldest Old with Five Different Equations to Estimate Glomerular Filtration Rate: The Health and Anemia Population-based Study

Background

Kidney function declines considerably with age, but little is known about its clinical significance in the oldest-old.

Objectives

To study the association between reduced glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimated according to five equations with mortality in the oldest-old.

Design

Prospective population-based study.

Setting

Municipality of Biella, Piedmont, Italy.

Participants

700 subjects aged 85 and older participating in the “Health and Anemia” Study in 2007–2008.

Measurements

GFR was estimated using five creatinine-based equations: the Cockcroft-Gault (C-G), Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD), MAYO Clinic, Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) and Berlin Initiative Study-1 (BIS-1). Survival analysis was used to study mortality in subjects with reduced eGFR (<60 mL/min/1.73m²) compared to subjects with eGFR ≥60 mL/min/1.73m².

Results

Prevalence of reduced GFR was 90.7% with the C-G, 48.1% with MDRD, 23.3% with MAYO, 53.6% with CKD-EPI and 84.4% with BIS-1. After adjustment for confounders, two-year mortality was significantly increased in subjects with reduced eGFR using BIS-1 and C-G equations (adjusted HRs: 2.88 and 3.30, respectively). Five-year mortality was significantly increased in subjects with eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73m² using MAYO, CKD-EPI and, in a graduated fashion in reduced eGFR categories, MDRD. After 5 years, oldest old with an eGFR <30 mL/min/1.73m² showed a significantly higher risk of death whichever equation was used (adjusted HRs between 2.04 and 2.70).

Conclusion

In the oldest old, prevalence of reduced eGFR varies noticeably depending on the equation used. In this population, risk of mortality was significantly higher for reduced GFR estimated with the BIS-1 and C-G equations over the short term. Though after five years the MDRD appeared on the whole a more consistent predictor, differences in mortality prediction among equations over the long term were less apparent. Noteworthy, subjects with a severely reduced GFR were consistently at higher risk of death regardless of the equation used to estimate GFR.     

"Healthy Men" and High Mortality: Contributions from a Population-Based Study for the Gender Paradox Discussion

Background

Inequalities between men and women in morbidity and mortality show a contrast, which has been called gender paradox. Most studies evaluating this paradox were conducted in high-income countries and, until now, few investigations have been performed in Brazil. This study aims to estimate the magnitude of inequalities between adult men and women in several dimensions: demographic and socioeconomic, health behaviors, morbidity, use of health services and mortality.

Methods

The data were obtained from population-based household survey carried out in Campinas (Campinas Health Survey 2008/09) corresponding to 957 people, and data from the Mortality Information System (MIS) between 2009 and 2011. Prevalences and prevalence ratios were analyzed in order to verify the differences between men and women regarding socioeconomic and demographic variables, health behaviors, morbidities and consultations in the last two weeks. Mortality rates and the ratio between coefficients considering the underlying causes of death were calculated.

Results

Women had a greater disadvantage in socioeconomic indicators, chronic diseases diagnosed by a health professional and referred health problems as well as make more use of health services, while men presented higher frequency of most unhealthy behaviors and excessive mortality for all causes investigated.

Conclusions

The findings contribute to the discussion of gender paradox and demonstrate the need to employ health actions that consider the differences between men and women in the various health dimensions analyzed. The premature male mortality from preventable causes was outstanding, making clear the need for more effective prevention and health promotion directed to this segment of the population.     

Combining Serum Cystatin C with Total Bilirubin Improves Short-Term Mortality Prediction in Patients with HBV-Related Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure

Background & Aims

HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is a severe liver disease which results in a high mortality in China. To early predict the prognosis of the patients may prevent the complications and improve the survival. This study was aimed to develop a new prognostic index to estimate the survival related to HBV-ACLF.

Methods

Consecutive patients with HBV-ACLF were included in a prospective observational study. Serum Cystatin C concentrations were measured by using the particle-enhanced immunonephelometry assay. All of the patients were followed for at least 3 months. Cox regression analysis was carried out to identify which factors were predictive of mortality. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the efficacy of the variates for early predicting mortality.

Results

Seventy-two patients with HBV-ACLF were recruited between January 2012 and January 2013. Thirty patients died (41.7%) during 3-months followed up. Cox multivariate regression analysis identified serum cystatin C (CysC) and total bilirubin (TBil) were independent factors significantly (P < 0.01) associated with survival. Our results further showed that new prognostic index (PI) combining serum CysC with TBil was a good indicator for predicting the mortality of patients with HBV-ACLF. Specifically, the PI had a higher accuracy than the CTP, MELD, or MELD-Na scoring for early prediction short-term survival of HBV-ACLF patients with normal levels of serum creatinine (Cr). The survival rate in low risk group (PI < 3.91) was 94.3%, which was markedly higher than those in the high-risk group (PI ≥ 3.91) (17.4%, P < 0.001).

Conclusion

We developed a new prognostic index combining serum CysC with TBil which early predicted the short-term mortality of HBV-ACLF patients.