Early Social Experience Predicts Referential Communicative Adjustments in Five-Year-Old Children

A large body of work has focused on children’s ability to attribute mental states to other people, and whether these abilities are influenced by the extent and nature of children’s social interactions. However, it remains largely unknown which developmental factors shape children’s ability to influence the mental states of others. Building on the suggestion that collaborative experiences early in life might be crucial for the emergence of mental coordination abilities, here we assess the relative contribution of social exposure to familial and non-familial agents on children’s communicative adjustments to their mental model of an addressee (‘audience design’). During an online interactive game, five-year-olds spontaneously organized their non-verbal communicative behaviors according to their beliefs about an interlocutor. The magnitude of these communicative adjustments was predicted by the time spent at daycare, from birth until four years of age, over and above effects of familial social environment. These results suggest that the degree of non-familial social interaction early in life modulates the influence that children’s beliefs have on their referential communicative behavior.     

Opinion Dynamics with Confirmation Bias

Background

Confirmation bias is the tendency to acquire or evaluate new information in a way that is consistent with one''s preexisting beliefs. It is omnipresent in psychology, economics, and even scientific practices. Prior theoretical research of this phenomenon has mainly focused on its economic implications possibly missing its potential connections with broader notions of cognitive science.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We formulate a (non-Bayesian) model for revising subjective probabilistic opinion of a confirmationally-biased agent in the light of a persuasive opinion. The revision rule ensures that the agent does not react to persuasion that is either far from his current opinion or coincides with it. We demonstrate that the model accounts for the basic phenomenology of the social judgment theory, and allows to study various phenomena such as cognitive dissonance and boomerang effect. The model also displays the order of presentation effect–when consecutively exposed to two opinions, the preference is given to the last opinion (recency) or the first opinion (primacy) –and relates recency to confirmation bias. Finally, we study the model in the case of repeated persuasion and analyze its convergence properties.

Conclusions

The standard Bayesian approach to probabilistic opinion revision is inadequate for describing the observed phenomenology of persuasion process. The simple non-Bayesian model proposed here does agree with this phenomenology and is capable of reproducing a spectrum of effects observed in psychology: primacy-recency phenomenon, boomerang effect and cognitive dissonance. We point out several limitations of the model that should motivate its future development.     

Emotions as infectious diseases in a large social network: the SISa model

Human populations are arranged in social networks that determine interactions and influence the spread of diseases, behaviours and ideas. We evaluate the spread of long-term emotional states across a social network. We introduce a novel form of the classical susceptible–infected–susceptible disease model which includes the possibility for ‘spontaneous’ (or ‘automatic’) infection, in addition to disease transmission (the SISa model). Using this framework and data from the Framingham Heart Study, we provide formal evidence that positive and negative emotional states behave like infectious diseases spreading across social networks over long periods of time. The probability of becoming content is increased by 0.02 per year for each content contact, and the probability of becoming discontent is increased by 0.04 per year per discontent contact. Our mathematical formalism allows us to derive various quantities from the data, such as the average lifetime of a contentment ‘infection’ (10 years) or discontentment ‘infection’ (5 years). Our results give insight into the transmissive nature of positive and negative emotional states. Determining to what extent particular emotions or behaviours are infectious is a promising direction for further research with important implications for social science, epidemiology and health policy. Our model provides a theoretical framework for studying the interpersonal spread of any state that may also arise spontaneously, such as emotions, behaviours, health states, ideas or diseases with reservoirs.     

Is the Person-Situation Debate Important for Agent-Based Modeling and Vice-Versa?

Background

Agent-based models (ABM) are believed to be a very powerful tool in the social sciences, sometimes even treated as a substitute for social experiments. When building an ABM we have to define the agents and the rules governing the artificial society. Given the complexity and our limited understanding of the human nature, we face the problem of assuming that either personal traits, the situation or both have impact on the social behavior of agents. However, as the long-standing person-situation debate in psychology shows, there is no consensus as to the underlying psychological mechanism and the important question that arises is whether the modeling assumptions we make will have a substantial influence on the simulated behavior of the system as a whole or not.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Studying two variants of the same agent-based model of opinion formation, we show that the decision to choose either personal traits or the situation as the primary factor driving social interactions is of critical importance. Using Monte Carlo simulations (for Barabasi-Albert networks) and analytic calculations (for a complete graph) we provide evidence that assuming a person-specific response to social influence at the microscopic level generally leads to a completely different and less realistic aggregate or macroscopic behavior than an assumption of a situation-specific response; a result that has been reported by social psychologists for a range of experimental setups, but has been downplayed or ignored in the opinion dynamics literature.

Significance

This sensitivity to modeling assumptions has far reaching consequences also beyond opinion dynamics, since agent-based models are becoming a popular tool among economists and policy makers and are often used as substitutes of real social experiments.     

An Agent-Based Model of Private Woodland Owner Management Behavior Using Social Interactions,Information Flow,and Peer-To-Peer Networks

Privately owned woodlands are an important source of timber and ecosystem services in North America and worldwide. Impacts of management on these ecosystems and timber supply from these woodlands are difficult to estimate because complex behavioral theory informs the owner’s management decisions. The decision-making environment consists of exogenous market factors, internal cognitive processes, and social interactions with fellow landowners, foresters, and other rural community members. This study seeks to understand how social interactions, information flow, and peer-to-peer networks influence timber harvesting behavior using an agent-based model. This theoretical model includes forested polygons in various states of ‘harvest readiness’ and three types of agents: forest landowners, foresters, and peer leaders (individuals trained in conservation who use peer-to-peer networking). Agent rules, interactions, and characteristics were parameterized with values from existing literature and an empirical survey of forest landowner attitudes, intentions, and demographics. The model demonstrates that as trust in foresters and peer leaders increases, the percentage of the forest that is harvested sustainably increases. Furthermore, peer leaders can serve to increase landowner trust in foresters. Model output and equations will inform forest policy and extension/outreach efforts. The model also serves as an important testing ground for new theories of landowner decision making and behavior.     

Observing others give & take: A computational account of bystanders’ feelings and actions

Social interactions influence people’s feelings and behavior. Here, we propose that a person’s well-being is influenced not only by interactions they experience themselves, but also by those they observe. In particular, we test and quantify the influence of observed selfishness and observed inequality on a bystanders’ feelings and non-costly punishment decisions. We developed computational models that relate others’ (un)selfish acts to observers’ emotional reactions and punishment decisions. These characterize the rules by which others’ interactions are transformed into bystanders’ reactions, and successfully predict those reactions in out-of-sample participants. The models highlight the impact of two social values—‘selfishness aversion’ and ‘inequality aversion’. As for the latter we find that even small violations from perfect equality have a disproportionately large impact on feelings and punishment. In this age of internet and social media we constantly observe others’ online interactions, in addition to in-person interactions. Quantifying the consequences of such observations is important for predicting their impact on society.     

Re-Examining of Moffitt’s Theory of Delinquency through Agent Based Modeling

Moffitt’s theory of delinquency suggests that at-risk youths can be divided into two groups, the adolescence- limited group and the life-course-persistent group, predetermined at a young age, and social interactions between these two groups become important during the adolescent years. We built an agent-based model based on the microscopic interactions Moffitt described: (i) a maturity gap that dictates (ii) the cost and reward of antisocial behavior, and (iii) agents imitating the antisocial behaviors of others more successful than themselves, to find indeed the two groups emerging in our simulations. Moreover, through an intervention simulation where we moved selected agents from one social network to another, we also found that the social network plays an important role in shaping the life course outcome.     

Multi-Level Opinion Dynamics under Bounded Confidence

Opinion dynamics focuses on the opinion evolution in a social community. Recently, some models of continuous opinion dynamics under bounded confidence were proposed by Deffuant and Krause, et al. In the literature, agents were generally assumed to have a homogeneous confidence level. This paper proposes an extended model for a group of agents with heterogeneous confidence levels. First, a social differentiation theory is introduced and a social group is divided into opinion subgroups with distinct confidence levels. Second, a multi-level heterogeneous opinion formation model is formulated under the framework of bounded confidence. Finally, computer simulations are conducted to study the collective opinion evolution, focusing on three key factors: the fractions of heterogeneous agents, the initial opinions, and the group size. The simulation results demonstrate that the number of final opinions depends on the fraction of close-minded agents when the group size and the initial opinions are fixed; the final opinions converge more easily when the initial opinions are closer; and the number of final opinions can be approximately modeled by a linear increasing function of the group size and the increasing rate is the fraction of close-minded agents.     

Dynamics to Equilibrium in Network Games: Individual Behavior and Global Response

Various social contexts can be depicted as games of strategic interactions on networks, where an individual’s welfare depends on both her and her partners’ actions. Whereas much attention has been devoted to Bayes-Nash equilibria in such games, here we look at strategic interactions from an evolutionary perspective. To this end, we present the results of a numerical simulations program for these games, which allows us to find out whether Nash equilibria are accessible by adaptation of player strategies, and in general to identify the attractors of the evolution. Simulations allow us to go beyond a global characterization of the cooperativeness at equilibrium and probe into individual behavior. We find that when players imitate each other, evolution does not reach Nash equilibria and, worse, leads to very unfavorable states in terms of welfare. On the contrary, when players update their behavior rationally, they self-organize into a rich variety of Nash equilibria, where individual behavior and payoffs are shaped by the nature of the game, the social network’s structure and the players’ position within the network. Our results allow to assess the validity of mean-field approaches we use to describe the dynamics of these games. Interestingly, our dynamically-found equilibria generally do not coincide with (but show qualitatively the same features of) those resulting from theoretical predictions in the context of one-shot games under incomplete information.     

A Model for Cross-Cultural Reciprocal Interactions through Mass Media

We investigate the problem of cross-cultural interactions through mass media in a model where two populations of social agents, each with its own internal dynamics, get information about each other through reciprocal global interactions. As the agent dynamics, we employ Axelrod''s model for social influence. The global interaction fields correspond to the statistical mode of the states of the agents and represent mass media messages on the cultural trend originating in each population. Several phases are found in the collective behavior of either population depending on parameter values: two homogeneous phases, one having the state of the global field acting on that population, and the other consisting of a state different from that reached by the applied global field; and a disordered phase. In addition, the system displays nontrivial effects: (i) the emergence of a largest minority group of appreciable size sharing a state different from that of the applied global field; (ii) the appearance of localized ordered states for some values of parameters when the entire system is observed, consisting of one population in a homogeneous state and the other in a disordered state. This last situation can be considered as a social analogue to a chimera state arising in globally coupled populations of oscillators.     

Joint Effects of Asymmetric Payoff and Reciprocity Mechanisms on Collective Cooperation in Water Sharing Interactions: A Game Theoretic Perspective

Common-pool resource (CPR) dilemmas distinguish themselves from general public good problems by encompassing both social and physical features. This paper examines how a physical mechanism, namely asymmetric payoff; and a social mechanism, reciprocity; simultaneously affect collective cooperation in theoretical water sharing interactions. We present an iterative N-person game theoretic model to investigate the joint effects of these two mechanisms in a linear fully connected river system under three information assumptions. From a simple evolutionary perspective, this paper quantitatively addresses the conditions for Nash Equilibrium in which collective cooperation might be established. The results suggest that direct reciprocity increases every actor’s motivation to contribute to the collective good of the river system. Meanwhile, various upstream and downstream actors manifest individual disparities as a result of the direct reciprocity and asymmetric payoff mechanisms. More specifically, the downstream actors are less willing to cooperate unless there is a high probability that long-term interactions are ensured; however, a greater level of asymmetries is likely to increase upstream actors’ incentives to cooperate even though the interactions could quickly end. The upstream actors also display weak sensitivity to an increase in the total number of actors, which generally results in a reduction in the other actors’ motivation for cooperation. It is also shown that the indirect reciprocity mechanism relaxes the overall conditions for cooperative Nash Equilibrium.     

MIIB: A Metric to Identify Top Influential Bloggers in a Community

Social networking has revolutionized the use of conventional web and has converted World Wide Web into the social web as users can generate their own content. This change has been possible due to social web platforms like forums, wikis, and blogs. Blogs are more commonly being used as a form of virtual communication to express an opinion about an event, product or experience and can reach a large audience. Users can influence others to buy a product, have certain political or social views, etc. Therefore, identifying the most influential bloggers has become very significant as this can help us in the fields of commerce, advertisement and product knowledge searching. Existing approaches consider some basic features, but lack to consider some other features like the importance of the blog on which the post has been created. This paper presents a new metric, MIIB (Metric for Identification of Influential Bloggers), based on various features of bloggers’ productivity and popularity. Productivity refers to bloggers’ blogging activity and popularity measures bloggers’ influence in the blogging community. The novel module of BlogRank depicts the importance of blog sites where bloggers create their posts. The MIIB has been evaluated against the standard model and existing metrics for finding the influential bloggers using dataset from the real-world blogosphere. The obtained results confirm that the MIIB is able to find the most influential bloggers in a more effective manner.     

Opinion Formation by Social Influence: From Experiments to Modeling

Predicting different forms of collective behavior in human populations, as the outcome of individual attitudes and their mutual influence, is a question of major interest in social sciences. In particular, processes of opinion formation have been theoretically modeled on the basis of a formal similarity with the dynamics of certain physical systems, giving rise to an extensive collection of mathematical models amenable to numerical simulation or even to exact solution. Empirical ground for these models is however largely missing, which confine them to the level of mere metaphors of the real phenomena they aim at explaining. In this paper we present results of an experiment which quantifies the change in the opinions given by a subject on a set of specific matters under the influence of others. The setup is a variant of a recently proposed experiment, where the subject’s confidence on his or her opinion was evaluated as well. In our realization, which records the quantitative answers of 85 subjects to 20 questions before and after an influence event, the focus is put on characterizing the change in answers and confidence induced by such influence. Similarities and differences with the previous version of the experiment are highlighted. We find that confidence changes are to a large extent independent of any other recorded quantity, while opinion changes are strongly modulated by the original confidence. On the other hand, opinion changes are not influenced by the initial difference with the reference opinion. The typical time scales on which opinion varies are moreover substantially longer than those of confidence change. Experimental results are then used to estimate parameters for a dynamical agent-based model of opinion formation in a large population. In the context of the model, we study the convergence to full consensus and the effect of opinion leaders on the collective distribution of opinions.     

The Development of Infants’ Sensitivity to Behavioral Intentions when Inferring Others’ Social Preferences

The present study investigated whether infants reason about others’ social preferences based on the intentions of others’ interactive actions. In Experiment 1, 12-month-old infants were familiarized with an event in which an agent either successfully helped a circle to climb up a hill (successful-helping condition) or failed to help the circle to achieve its goal (failed-helping condition). During the test, the infants saw the circle approach either the helper (approach-helper event) or the hinderer (approach-hinderer event). In the successful-helping condition, the 12-month-old infants looked for longer at the approach-hinderer event than at the approach-helper event, but in the failed-helping condition, looking times were about equal for the two test events. These results suggest that 12-month-old infants could not infer the circle’s preference when the helper’s action did not lead to its intended outcome. In Experiment 2, 16-month-olds were tested in the failed-helping condition; they looked longer at the approach-hinderer event than at the approach-helper event, which suggests that they could reason about the third party’s social preferences based on the exhibited intentions. In Experiment 3, 12-month-olds were familiarized with events in which the final outcomes of helping and hindering actions were ambiguous. The results revealed that 12-month-old infants are also sensitive to intentions when inferring other’s social preferences. The results suggest that by 12-months of age, infants expect an agent to prefer and approach another who intends to help the circle to achieve its goal, regardless of the outcome. The current research has implications for moral reasoning and social evaluation in infancy.     

Molecular interactions involved in proton-dependent gating in KcsA potassium channels

The bacterial potassium channel KcsA is gated open by the binding of protons to amino acids on the intracellular side of the channel. We have identified, via channel mutagenesis and x-ray crystallography, two pH-sensing amino acids and a set of nearby residues involved in molecular interactions that influence gating. We found that the minimal mutation of one histidine (H25) and one glutamate (E118) near the cytoplasmic gate completely abolished pH-dependent gating. Mutation of nearby residues either alone or in pairs altered the channel’s response to pH. In addition, mutations of certain pairs of residues dramatically increased the energy barriers between the closed and open states. We proposed a Monod–Wyman–Changeux model for proton binding and pH-dependent gating in KcsA, where H25 is a “strong” sensor displaying a large shift in pK_a between closed and open states, and E118 is a “weak” pH sensor. Modifying model parameters that are involved in either the intrinsic gating equilibrium or the pK_a values of the pH-sensing residues was sufficient to capture the effects of all mutations.     

The "Majority Illusion" in Social Networks

Individual’s decisions, from what product to buy to whether to engage in risky behavior, often depend on the choices, behaviors, or states of other people. People, however, rarely have global knowledge of the states of others, but must estimate them from the local observations of their social contacts. Network structure can significantly distort individual’s local observations. Under some conditions, a state that is globally rare in a network may be dramatically over-represented in the local neighborhoods of many individuals. This effect, which we call the “majority illusion,” leads individuals to systematically overestimate the prevalence of that state, which may accelerate the spread of social contagions. We develop a statistical model that quantifies this effect and validate it with measurements in synthetic and real-world networks. We show that the illusion is exacerbated in networks with a heterogeneous degree distribution and disassortative structure.     

Multistability in Large Scale Models of Brain Activity

Noise driven exploration of a brain network’s dynamic repertoire has been hypothesized to be causally involved in cognitive function, aging and neurodegeneration. The dynamic repertoire crucially depends on the network’s capacity to store patterns, as well as their stability. Here we systematically explore the capacity of networks derived from human connectomes to store attractor states, as well as various network mechanisms to control the brain’s dynamic repertoire. Using a deterministic graded response Hopfield model with connectome-based interactions, we reconstruct the system’s attractor space through a uniform sampling of the initial conditions. Large fixed-point attractor sets are obtained in the low temperature condition, with a bigger number of attractors than ever reported so far. Different variants of the initial model, including (i) a uniform activation threshold or (ii) a global negative feedback, produce a similarly robust multistability in a limited parameter range. A numerical analysis of the distribution of the attractors identifies spatially-segregated components, with a centro-medial core and several well-delineated regional patches. Those different modes share similarity with the fMRI independent components observed in the “resting state” condition. We demonstrate non-stationary behavior in noise-driven generalizations of the models, with different meta-stable attractors visited along the same time course. Only the model with a global dynamic density control is found to display robust and long-lasting non-stationarity with no tendency toward either overactivity or extinction. The best fit with empirical signals is observed at the edge of multistability, a parameter region that also corresponds to the highest entropy of the attractors.     

The Quality of Spouses’ Social Networks Contributes to Each Other’s Cardiovascular Risk

Objectives

Although the quality of one’s own social relationships has been related to cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, whether a partner’s social network quality can similarly influence one’s cardiovascular risk is unknown. In this study we tested whether the quality of a partner’s social networks influenced one’s own ambulatory blood pressure (ABP).

Methods

The quality of 94 couples’ social networks was determined using a comprehensive model of relationships that separates out social ties that are sources of positivity(supportive), negativity (aversive), and both positivity and negativity (ambivalent). We then utilized statistical models (actor-partner analyses) that allowed us to separate out the links between one’s own social network quality on ABP (actor influences), a partner’s social network quality on ABP (partner influences), and a couple’s network quality combined on ABP (actor X partner interactions).

Results

Independent of one’s own relationship quality, results showed that an individual’s ABP was lower if their spouse had more supportive ties, and higher if a spouse had more aversive and ambivalent ties. In addition, couples’ networks in combination were associated with higher ABP but only if both had a low number of supportive ties, or a high number of aversive or ambivalent ties.

Conclusions

These data suggest that the social ties of those we have close relationships with may influence our cardiovascular risk and opens new opportunities to capitalize on untapped social resources or to mitigate hidden sources of social strain.     

Beyond Contagion: Reality Mining Reveals Complex Patterns of Social Influence

Contagion, a concept from epidemiology, has long been used to characterize social influence on people’s behavior and affective (emotional) states. While it has revealed many useful insights, it is not clear whether the contagion metaphor is sufficient to fully characterize the complex dynamics of psychological states in a social context. Using wearable sensors that capture daily face-to-face interaction, combined with three daily experience sampling surveys, we collected the most comprehensive data set of personality and emotion dynamics of an entire community of work. From this high-resolution data about actual (rather than self-reported) face-to-face interaction, a complex picture emerges where contagion (that can be seen as adaptation of behavioral responses to the behavior of other people) cannot fully capture the dynamics of transitory states. We found that social influence has two opposing effects on states: adaptation effects that go beyond mere contagion, and complementarity effects whereby individuals’ behaviors tend to complement the behaviors of others. Surprisingly, these effects can exhibit completely different directions depending on the stable personality or emotional dispositions (stable traits) of target individuals. Our findings provide a foundation for richer models of social dynamics, and have implications on organizational engineering and workplace well-being.