Untangling a Decline in Tropical Forest Resilience: Constraints on the Sustainability of Shifting Cultivation Across the Globe

Shifting cultivators depend on forest biomass inputs to nourish their crops. For them, forest resilience has an immediate impact: it affects crop productivity. A decline in the rate of recovery following shifting cultivation would ultimately affect local, regional and global carbon budgets, with feedbacks to climate. Yet the long-term impacts of shifting cultivation have been quantified in only six locations. In this study, we reanalyze data from these locations to determine whether the rate of biomass recovery is the same from cycle to cycle. Further, using case studies in Southern Yucatan, Mexico and West Kalimantan, Indonesia, we investigate the ecological and socioeconomic factors that affect forest resilience and thus determine whether or not shifting cultivation is sustainable. The reanalysis links aboveground biomass recovery following shifting cultivation to site productivity, forest age, fallow length, history of cultivation, and soil texture. Across locations, biomass accumulation rate declines by 9.3 percent with each cycle of shifting cultivation. Per cycle change in biomass accumulation rate is significantly more negative in younger forests and forests that experience a shorter fallow period. However, more detailed analyses for two case studies suggest that a purely ecological framework is of limited effectiveness in explaining variability in the effect of repeated shifting cultivation. Rather, socioeconomic factors such as migration, subsidies, roads, and settlement history can alter the outcome of shifting cultivation by limiting the accumulation and use of local knowledge.     

Spectral index-based time series analysis of canopy resistance and resilience in a watershed under intermittent weather changes

Understanding the long-term impact of intermittent weather events on diverse forest and plant communities at the canopy level has become a key issue in sustainability science. Unlike a single event, intermittent weather events may exert more physiological and biological pressure on terrestrial vegetative surfaces. The amalgamation of spectral index-based satellite remote sensing information to assess intermittent weather changes in canopy dynamics may help identify phenological shifts of biota in response to external and consecutive disturbances. We conducted this study to assess such impacts of alternating weather changes on grassland, agricultural, deciduous forested, and evergreen forested land uses via remote sensing and to compare the resilience and resistance of canopy under intermittent weather changes in a subtropical watershed. The research findings indicate that deciduous forested and evergreen forested land showed a strong correlation between canopy-level biophysical and biochemical properties driven by land surface temperature. The variation of energy driven by land surface temperature changes the sensitivity levels of resilience in forest land uses, affecting the gross primary productivity.     

Socio-Economic Perspectives on Shifting Cultivation Landscapes in Northern Laos

Despite the rapid agricultural transition that has occurred in the past decade, shifting cultivation remains a widespread agricultural practice in the northern uplands of Lao PDR. Little information is available on the basic socio-economic situation and respective possible patterns in shifting cultivation landscapes on a regional level. On the basis of a recent approximation of the extent of shifting cultivation landscapes for two time periods and disaggregated village level census data, this paper characterizes these landscapes in terms of key socioeconomic parameters for the whole of northern Laos. Results showed that over 550,000 people live in shifting cultivation regions. The poverty rate of this population of 46.5 % is considerably higher than the national rural rate. Most shifting cultivation landscapes are located in remote locations and a high share of the population comprises ethnic minorities, pointing to multi-dimensional marginality of these areas. We discuss whether economic growth and increased market accessibility are sufficient to lift these landscapes out of poverty.     

Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology,human use and conservation

Tropical grassy biomes (TGBs) are changing rapidly the world over through a coalescence of high rates of land-use change, global change and altered disturbance regimes that maintain the ecosystem structure and function of these biomes. Our theme issue brings together the latest research examining the characterization, complex ecology, drivers of change, and human use and ecosystem services of TGBs. Recent advances in ecology and evolution have facilitated a new perspective on these biomes. However, there continues to be controversies over their classification and state dynamics that demonstrate critical data and knowledge gaps in our quantitative understanding of these geographically dispersed regions. We highlight an urgent need to improve ecological understanding in order to effectively predict the sensitivity and resilience of TGBs under future scenarios of global change. With human reliance on TGBs increasing and their propensity for change, ecological and evolutionary understanding of these biomes is central to the dual goals of sustaining their ecological integrity and the diverse services these landscapes provide to millions of people.This article is part of the themed issue ‘Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation’.     

Inferring Resilience to Fragmentation-Induced Changes in Plant Communities in a Semi-Arid Mediterranean Ecosystem

Predicting the capacity of ecosystems to absorb impacts from disturbance events (resilience), including land-use intensification and landscape fragmentation, is challenging in the face of global change. Little is known about the impacts of fragmentation on ecosystem functioning from a multi-dimensional perspective (multiple traits). This study used 58 500-m linear transects to quantify changes in the functional composition and resilience of vascular plant communities in response to an increase in landscape fragmentation in 18 natural scrubland fragments embedded within a matrix of abandoned crop fields in Cabo de Gata-Níjar Natural Park, Almería, Spain. Changes in functional community composition were measured using functional diversity indices (functional richness and functional dispersion) that were based on 12 plant traits. Resilience was evaluated using the functional redundancy and response diversity from the perspective of plant dispersal, which is important, particularly, in fragmented landscapes. Scrubland fragmentation was measured using the Integral Index of Connectivity (IIC). The functional richness of the plant communities was higher in the most fragmented scrubland. Conversely, the functional dispersion (i.e., spread) of trait values among species in the functional trait space was lower at the most fragmented sites; consequently, the ecological tolerance of the vegetation to scrubland fragmentation decreased. Classifying the plant species into four functional groups indicated that fragmentation favoured an increase in functional redundancy in the ‘short basal annual forbs and perennial forbs’ group, most of which are species adapted to degraded soils. An assessment based on the traits associated with plant dispersal indicated that the resilience of ‘woody plants’, an important component in the Mediterranean scrubland, and habitat fragmentation were negatively correlated; however, the correlation was positive in the ‘short basal annual forbs and perennial forbs’ and the ‘grasses’ groups.     

The bacterial and mitochondrial ribosomal A-site molecular switches possess different conformational substates

The A site of the small ribosomal subunit participates in the fidelity of decoding by switching between two states, a resting ‘off’ state and an active decoding ‘on’ state. Eight crystal structures of RNA duplexes containing two minimal decoding A sites of the Homo sapiens mitochondrial wild-type, the A1555G mutant or bacteria have been solved. The resting ‘off’ state of the mitochondrial wild-type A site is surprisingly different from that of the bacterial A site. The mitochondrial A1555G mutant has two types of the ‘off’ states; one is similar to the mitochondrial wild-type ‘off’ state and the other is similar to the bacterial ‘off’ state. Our present results indicate that the dynamics of the A site in bacteria and mitochondria are different, a property probably related to the small number of tRNAs used for decoding in mitochondria. Based on these structures, we propose a hypothesis for the molecular mechanism of non-syndromic hearing loss due to the mitochondrial A1555G mutation.     

Repression and Recuperation of Brood Production in Bombus terrestris Bumble Bees Exposed to a Pulse of the Neonicotinoid Pesticide Imidacloprid

Currently, there is concern about declining bee populations and some blame the residues of neonicotinoid pesticides in the nectar and pollen of treated crops. Bumble bees are important wild pollinators that are widely exposed to dietary neonicotinoids by foraging in agricultural environments. In the laboratory, we tested the effect of a pulsed exposure (14 days ‘on dose’ followed by 14 days ‘off dose’) to a common neonicotinoid, imidacloprid, on the amount of brood (number of eggs and larvae) produced by Bombus terrestris L. bumble bees in small, standardised experimental colonies (a queen and four adult workers). During the initial ‘on dose’ period we observed a dose-dependent repression of brood production in colonies, with productivity decreasing as dosage increased up to 98 µg kg⁻¹ dietary imidacloprid. During the following ‘off dose’ period, colonies showed a dose-dependent recuperation such that total brood production during the 28-day pulsed exposure was not correlated with imidacloprid up to 98 µg kg⁻¹. Our findings raise further concern about the threat to wild bumble bees from neonicotinoids, but they also indicate some resilience to a pulsed exposure, such as that arising from the transient bloom of a treated mass-flowering crop.     

Ecosystem resilience and threshold response in the Galápagos coastal zone

Background

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a conservative estimate on rates of sea-level rise of 3.8 mm yr⁻¹ at the end of the 21^st century, which may have a detrimental effect on ecologically important mangrove ecosystems. Understanding factors influencing the long-term resilience of these communities is critical but poorly understood. We investigate ecological resilience in a coastal mangrove community from the Galápagos Islands over the last 2700 years using three research questions: What are the ‘fast and slow’ processes operating in the coastal zone? Is there evidence for a threshold response? How can the past inform us about the resilience of the modern system?

Methodology/Principal Findings

Palaeoecological methods (AMS radiocarbon dating, stable carbon isotopes (δ¹³C)) were used to reconstruct sedimentation rates and ecological change over the past 2,700 years at Diablas lagoon, Isabela, Galápagos. Bulk geochemical analysis was also used to determine local environmental changes, and salinity was reconstructed using a diatom transfer function. Changes in relative sea level (RSL) were estimated using a glacio-isostatic adjustment model. Non-linear behaviour was observed in the Diablas mangrove ecosystem as it responded to increased salinities following exposure to tidal inundations. A negative feedback was observed which enabled the mangrove canopy to accrete vertically, but disturbances may have opened up the canopy and contributed to an erosion of resilience over time. A combination of drier climatic conditions and a slight fall in RSL then resulted in a threshold response, from a mangrove community to a microbial mat.

Conclusions/Significance

Palaeoecological records can provide important information on the nature of non-linear behaviour by identifying thresholds within ecological systems, and in outlining responses to ‘fast’ and ‘slow’ environmental change between alternative stable states. This study highlights the need to incorporate a long-term ecological perspective when designing strategies for maximizing coastal resilience.     

An Agent-Based Model of Private Woodland Owner Management Behavior Using Social Interactions,Information Flow,and Peer-To-Peer Networks

Privately owned woodlands are an important source of timber and ecosystem services in North America and worldwide. Impacts of management on these ecosystems and timber supply from these woodlands are difficult to estimate because complex behavioral theory informs the owner’s management decisions. The decision-making environment consists of exogenous market factors, internal cognitive processes, and social interactions with fellow landowners, foresters, and other rural community members. This study seeks to understand how social interactions, information flow, and peer-to-peer networks influence timber harvesting behavior using an agent-based model. This theoretical model includes forested polygons in various states of ‘harvest readiness’ and three types of agents: forest landowners, foresters, and peer leaders (individuals trained in conservation who use peer-to-peer networking). Agent rules, interactions, and characteristics were parameterized with values from existing literature and an empirical survey of forest landowner attitudes, intentions, and demographics. The model demonstrates that as trust in foresters and peer leaders increases, the percentage of the forest that is harvested sustainably increases. Furthermore, peer leaders can serve to increase landowner trust in foresters. Model output and equations will inform forest policy and extension/outreach efforts. The model also serves as an important testing ground for new theories of landowner decision making and behavior.     

CENTURY ecosystem model application for quantifying vegetation dynamics in shifting cultivation areas: A case study from Rampa Forests, Eastern Ghats (India)

In India, slash and burn agriculture is one of the major factors contributing to deforestation, especially in the hilly north-eastern region and Eastern Ghats. Studies on vegetation dynamics associated with slash and burn agricultural practices have been intensively studied in the north-eastern part of India. These have covered semi-evergreen/evergreen vegetation, but similar studies on tropical mixed dry deciduous ecosystems are not as common. In the present study, we used the century ecosystem model to study vegetation dynamics in shifting cultivation areas on the mixed dry deciduous forests covering the Eastern Ghats of India. The site-specific parameters, temperature, precipitation, biomass and nutrient pools were used, and, by collecting information from local management practices, a 12-year shifting cultivation cycle during a 70-year period from 1960 to 2030 was simulated. century estimated a total loss of 239 tonnes carbon (tC) in soil organic matter over the simulation period, and the total nitrogen content of the soil organic matter showed an initial increase followed by a decline (344.3 g m² during 1960 to less than 318.3 g m² during 2030). century estimated that 66 tC ha^–1 would be lost from the forest system, reducing the initial forest system carbon level from 118.5 tC ha^–1. An increase in productivity from 0.49 tC ha^–1 during 1960 to 1.2 tC ha^–1 during the initial forest slash and burn in 1962 was observed, but thereafter productivity declined to 0.7 tC ha^–1 during the year 2030. Results obtained in other studies of similar types of agricultural practices are also reviewed.     

African rainforests: past,present and future

The rainforests are the great green heart of Africa, and present a unique combination of ecological, climatic and human interactions. In this synthesis paper, we review the past and present state processes of change in African rainforests, and explore the challenges and opportunities for maintaining a viable future for these biomes. We draw in particular on the insights and new analyses emerging from the Theme Issue on ‘African rainforests: past, present and future’ of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. A combination of features characterize the African rainforest biome, including a history of climate variation; forest expansion and retreat; a long history of human interaction with the biome; a relatively low plant species diversity but large tree biomass; a historically exceptionally high animal biomass that is now being severely hunted down; the dominance of selective logging; small-scale farming and bushmeat hunting as the major forms of direct human pressure; and, in Central Africa, the particular context of mineral- and oil-driven economies that have resulted in unusually low rates of deforestation and agricultural activity. We conclude by discussing how this combination of factors influences the prospects for African forests in the twenty-first century.     

Coupled ecological and social dynamics in a forested landscape: the deviation of individual decisions from the social optimum

We present a Markov chain model for land-use dynamics in a forested landscape. This model emphasizes the importance of coupling socioeconomic and ecological processes underlying landscape change. We assume that a forest is composed of many land parcels, each of which is in one of a finite list of land-use states. The land-use state of each land parcel changes stochastically. The transition probability is determined by two processes: the forest succession and the decision of landowners. The landowner tends to choose the land-use state which has a high expected discounted utility, i.e., the sum of the current and the future utilities of the land parcel. Landowners take the likelihood of future landscape changes into account when making decisions. We focus on a three-state model in which forested, agricultural, and abandoned states are considered. The land-use composition at equilibrium was analyzed and compared with the social optimum that maximizes the net benefit of all landowners in a society. We show that when landowners make a myopic choice focused on short-term benefits, their individual decisions tend to push the entire landscape toward an agricultural state even if the forested state represents the highest utility. This land-use composition at equilibrium is very different from the social optimum. A long-term management perspective and an enhanced rate of forest recovery can eliminate the discrepancy.     

A Bayesian Approach to Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment Applied to the Upper Grande Ronde Watershed,Oregon

We present a Bayesian network model based on the ecological risk assessment framework to evaluate potential impacts to habitats and resources resulting from wildfire, grazing, forest management activities, and insect outbreaks in a forested landscape in northeastern Oregon. The Bayesian network structure consisted of three tiers of nodes: landscape disturbances, habitats, and the ecological resources or endpoints of interest to land managers. Nodes at each tier were linked to lower nodes if ecological and spatial relationships existed between them. All parameters had four potential discrete states: zero, low, medium, and high. Our model reliably predicted probable risk to habitats and endpoints from natural and anthropogenic disturbances. The disturbances most likely to transform habitats and effect ecological resources were forest management and wildfire. Of the six habitats, moist forest (characterized by Douglas fir and grand fir) was found to be at greatest risk of ecological impacts. The management endpoint with the highest likelihood of impact was historical range of variability (HRV) for salmon habitat, followed by recreation (hunting native ungulates) and HRV wildfire. We found that the Bayesian approach to ecological risk assessment was a useful method to assess potential impacts to ecological resources resulting from forest management and natural disturbances.     

The Value of Countryside Elements in the Conservation of a Threatened Arboreal Marsupial Petaurus norfolcensis in Agricultural Landscapes of South-Eastern Australia—The Disproportional Value of Scattered Trees

Human activities, particularly agriculture, have transformed much of the world''s terrestrial environment. Within these anthropogenic landscapes, a variety of relictual and semi-natural habitats exist, which we term countryside elements. The habitat value of countryside elements (hereafter termed ‘elements’) is increasingly recognised. We quantify the relative value of four kinds of such ‘elements’ (linear roadside remnants, native vegetation patches, scattered trees and tree plantings) used by a threatened Australian arboreal marsupial, the squirrel glider (Petaurus norfolcensis). We examined relationships between home range size and the availability of each ‘element’ and whether the usage was relative to predicted levels of use. The use of ‘elements’ by gliders was largely explained by their availability, but there was a preference for native vegetation patches and scattered trees. We found home range size was significantly smaller with increasing area of scattered trees and a contrasting effect with increasing area of linear roadside remnants or native vegetation patches. Our work showed that each ‘element’ was used and as such had a role in the conservation of the squirrel glider, but their relative value varied. We illustrate the need to assess the conservation value of countryside elements so they can be incorporated into the holistic management of agricultural landscapes. This work demonstrates the disproportional value of scattered trees, underscoring the need to specifically incorporate and/or enhance the protection and recruitment of scattered trees in biodiversity conservation policy and management.     

Gobbling across landscapes: Eastern wild turkey distribution and occupancy–habitat associations

Extensive restoration and translocation efforts beginning in the mid‐20th century helped to reestablish eastern wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) throughout their ancestral range. The adaptability of wild turkeys resulted in further population expansion in regions that were considered unfavorable during initial reintroductions across the northern United States. Identification and understanding of species distributions and contemporary habitat associations are important for guiding effective conservation and management strategies across different ecological landscapes. To investigate differences in wild turkey distribution across two contrasting regions, heavily forested northern Wisconsin, USA, and predominately agricultural southeast Wisconsin, we conducted 3050 gobbling call‐count surveys from March to May of 2014–2018 and used multiseason correlated‐replicate occupancy models to evaluate occupancy–habitat associations and distributions of wild turkeys in each study region. Detection probabilities varied widely and were influenced by sampling period, time of day, and wind speed. Spatial autocorrelation between successive stations was prevalent along survey routes but was stronger in our northern study area. In heavily forested northern Wisconsin, turkeys were more likely to occupy areas characterized by moderate availability of open land cover. Conversely, large agricultural fields decreased the likelihood of turkey occupancy in southeast Wisconsin, but occupancy probability increased as upland hardwood forest cover became more aggregated on the landscape. Turkeys in northern Wisconsin were more likely to occupy landscapes with less snow cover and a higher percentage of row crops planted in corn. However, we were unable to find supporting evidence in either study area that the abandonment of turkeys from survey routes was associated with snow depth or with the percentage of agricultural cover. Spatially, model‐predicted estimates of patch‐specific occupancy indicated turkey distribution was nonuniform across northern and southeast Wisconsin. Our findings demonstrated that the environmental constraints of turkey occupancy varied across the latitudinal gradient of the state with open cover, snow, and row crops being influential in the north, and agricultural areas and hardwood forest cover important in the southeast. These forces contribute to nonstationarity in wild turkey–environment relationships. Key habitat–occupancy associations identified in our results can be used to prioritize and strategically target management efforts and resources in areas that are more likely to harbor sustainable turkey populations.     

Perspectives for ecosystem management based on ecosystem resilience and ecological thresholds against multiple and stochastic disturbances

Ecosystem resilience is the inherent ability to absorb various disturbances and reorganize while undergoing state changes to maintain critical functions. When ecosystem resilience is sufficiently degraded by disturbances, ecosystem is exposed at high risk of shifting from a desirable state to an undesirable state. Ecological thresholds represent the points where even small changes in environmental conditions associated with disturbances lead to switch between ecosystem states. There is a growing body of empirical evidence for such state transitions caused by anthropogenic disturbances in a variety of ecosystems. However, fewer studies addressed the interaction of anthropogenic and natural disturbances that often force an ecosystem to cross a threshold which an anthropogenic disturbance or a natural disturbance alone would not have achieved. This fact highlights how little is known about ecosystem dynamics under uncertainties around multiple and stochastic disturbances. Here, we present two perspectives for providing a predictive scientific basis to the management and conservation of ecosystems against multiple and stochastic disturbances. The first is management of predictable anthropogenic disturbances to maintain a sufficient level of biodiversity for ensuring ecosystem resilience (i.e., resilience-based management). Several biological diversity elements appear to confer ecosystem resilience, such as functional redundancy, response diversity, a dominant species, a foundation species, or a keystone species. The greatest research challenge is to identify key elements of biodiversity conferring ecosystem resilience for each context and to examine how we can manage and conserve them. The second is the identification of ecological thresholds along existing or experimental disturbance gradients. This will facilitate the development of indicators of proximity to thresholds as well as the understanding of threshold mechanisms. The implementation of forewarning indicators will be critical particularly when resilience-based management fails. The ability to detect an ecological threshold along disturbance gradients should therefore be essential to establish a backstop for preventing the threshold from being crossed. These perspectives can take us beyond simply invoking the precautionary principle of conserving biodiversity to a predictive science that informs practical solutions to cope with uncertainties and ecological surprises in a changing world.     

How habitat area,local and regional factors shape plant assemblages in isolated closed depressions

Classifying species by shared life-history traits is important if common ecological response groups are to be identified among different species. We investigated how habitat area, local and regional factors shape plant communities in small isolated closed depressions, and how the species richness is related to the interplay between environmental factors and specific life-history trait combinations. In Central-Western Europe, 169 closed depressions were completely surveyed for plant presence in two highly contrasted landscapes (forested and open landscapes). All species were clustered into 9 Emergent Groups based on 10 life-history traits related to plant dispersal, establishment and persistence. Habitat areas were related to species presence using logistic regressions. Most Emergent Groups were more area-dependent in open than in forested landscapes, owing to heterogeneous light levels in forest weakening the species–area relationship. In open landscapes, Floating Hydrophytes were severely underrepresented in very small depressions, owing to the absence of waterfowl population. Local environmental and regional factors were related to species richness using Generalized Linear Models. In open landscapes, local environmental factors such as water conductivity or soil productivity are respectively the main predictors. In forested landscapes, the abundance of most Emergent Groups was better predicted by regional factors, i.e., habitat connectivity and distance to the forest edge. Forested landscapes strongly impeded the closed depressions' colonization by the less mobile Emergent Groups such as Large-seeded Perennials.     

Estimating Species Richness and Modelling Habitat Preferences of Tropical Forest Mammals from Camera Trap Data

Medium-to-large mammals within tropical forests represent a rich and functionally diversified component of this biome; however, they continue to be threatened by hunting and habitat loss. Assessing these communities implies studying species’ richness and composition, and determining a state variable of species abundance in order to infer changes in species distribution and habitat associations. The Tropical Ecology, Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) network fills a chronic gap in standardized data collection by implementing a systematic monitoring framework of biodiversity, including mammal communities, across several sites. In this study, we used TEAM camera trap data collected in the Udzungwa Mountains of Tanzania, an area of exceptional importance for mammal diversity, to propose an example of a baseline assessment of species’ occupancy. We used 60 camera trap locations and cumulated 1,818 camera days in 2009. Sampling yielded 10,647 images of 26 species of mammals. We estimated that a minimum of 32 species are in fact present, matching available knowledge from other sources. Estimated species richness at camera sites did not vary with a suite of habitat covariates derived from remote sensing, however the detection probability varied with functional guilds, with herbivores being more detectable than other guilds. Species-specific occupancy modelling revealed novel ecological knowledge for the 11 most detected species, highlighting patterns such as ‘montane forest dwellers’, e.g. the endemic Sanje mangabey (Cercocebus sanjei), and ‘lowland forest dwellers’, e.g. suni antelope (Neotragus moschatus). Our results show that the analysis of camera trap data with account for imperfect detection can provide a solid ecological assessment of mammal communities that can be systematically replicated across sites.     

Tropical forest loss drives divergent patterns in functional diversity of forest and non-forest birds

Tropical forests have been facing high rates of deforestation driven by multiple anthropogenic disturbances, with severe consequences for biodiversity. However, the understanding of such effects on functional diversity is still limited in tropical regions, especially considering different ecological groups responses. Here, we evaluated the functional responses of birds to forest loss at the threatened Brazilian Atlantic forest, considering the complete assemblage, and both forest-dependent and non-forest-dependent species. Birds were surveyed in 40 forest sites with a forest cover gradient, located in two regions showing different land use types. We tested different models to assess the responses of functional diversity indices to forest loss in these sites. Although functional diversity did not differ between regions, forest and non-forest birds showed divergent responses to forest loss. Deforested landscapes presented an increase in functional richness (SESFRic) and evenness for forest species and an increase of functional dispersion for non-forest birds. Additionally, forested landscapes harbor birds presenting lower body mass and wing length, and non-forest species with lower tarsus length. The maintenance of some functional metrics through forest loss resulted from a compensatory dynamic between forest and non-forest birds, indicating that only evaluating the complete assemblage may mask important idiosyncratic patterns of different ecological groups. Although non-forest species are relatively capable to maintain bird functional diversity in deforested landscapes, forest birds are facing a drastic ongoing collapse in these sites, representing an alarming signal for the maintenance of forest ecosystem function.     

Primates in Human-Modified and Fragmented Landscapes: The Conservation Relevance of Modelling Habitat and Disturbance Factors in Density Estimation

Accurate density estimations of threatened animal populations is essential for management and conservation. This is particularly critical for species living in patchy and altered landscapes, as is the case for most tropical forest primates. In this study, we used a hierarchical modelling approach that incorporates the effect of environmental covariates on both the detection (i.e. observation) and the state (i.e. abundance) processes of distance sampling. We applied this method to already published data on three arboreal primates of the Udzungwa Mountains of Tanzania, including the endangered and endemic Udzungwa red colobus (Procolobus gordonorum). The area is a primate hotspot at continental level. Compared to previous, ‘canonical’ density estimates, we found that the inclusion of covariates in the modelling makes the inference process more informative, as it takes in full account the contrasting habitat and protection levels among forest blocks. The correction of density estimates for imperfect detection was especially critical where animal detectability was low. Relative to our approach, density was underestimated by the canonical distance sampling, particularly in the less protected forest. Group size had an effect on detectability, determining how the observation process varies depending on the socio-ecology of the target species. Lastly, as the inference on density is spatially-explicit to the scale of the covariates used in the modelling, we could confirm that primate densities are highest in low-to-mid elevations, where human disturbance tend to be greater, indicating a considerable resilience by target monkeys in disturbed habitats. However, the marked trend of lower densities in unprotected forests urgently calls for effective forest protection.