Evolution of host resistance and trade‐offs between virulence and transmission potential in an obligately killing parasite

Standard epidemiological theory predicts that parasites, which continuously release propagules during infection, face a trade‐off between virulence and transmission. However, little is known how host resistance and parasite virulence change during coevolution with obligate killers. To address this question we have set up a coevolution experiment evolving Nosema whitei on eight distinct lines of Tribolium castaneum. After 11 generations we conducted a time‐shift experiment infecting both the coevolved and the replicate control host lines with the original parasite source, and coevolved parasites from generation 8 and 11. We found higher survival in the coevolved host lines than in the matching control lines. In the parasite populations, virulence measured as host mortality decreased during coevolution, while sporeload stayed constant. Both patterns are compatible with adaptive evolution by selection for resistance in the host and by trade‐offs between virulence and transmission potential in the parasite.     

The virulence–transmission relationship in an obligate killer holds under diverse epidemiological and ecological conditions,but where is the tradeoff?

Parasite virulence is a leading theme in evolutionary biology. Modeling the course of virulence evolution holds the promise of providing practical insights into the management of infectious diseases and the implementation of vaccination strategies. A key element of virulence modeling is a tradeoff between parasite transmission rate and host lifespan. This assumption is crucial for predicting the level of optimal virulence. Here, I test this assumption using the water flea Daphnia magna and its castrating and obligate‐killing bacterium Pasteuria ramosa. I found that the virulence–transmission relationship holds under diverse epidemiological and ecological conditions. In particular, parasite genotype, absolute and relative parasite dose, and within‐host competition in multiple infections did not significantly affect the observed trend. Interestingly, the relationship between virulence and parasite transmission in this system is best explained by a model that includes a cubic term. Under this relationship, parasite transmission initially peaks and saturates at an intermediate level of virulence, but then it further increases as virulence decreases, surpassing the previous peak. My findings also highlight the problem of using parasite‐induced host mortality as a “one‐size‐fits‐all” measure of virulence for horizontally transmitted parasites, without considering the onset and duration of parasite transmission as well as other equally virulent effects of parasites (e.g., host castration). Therefore, mathematical models may be required to predict whether these particular characteristics of horizontally transmitted parasites can direct virulence evolution into directions not envisaged by existing models.     

A UNIFIED MODEL FOR THE COEVOLUTION OF RESISTANCE,TOLERANCE, AND VIRULENCE

We present a general host–parasite model that unifies previous theory by investigating the coevolution of virulence, resistance, and tolerance, with respect to multiple physiological, epidemiological, and environmental parameters. Four sets of new predictions emerge. First, compared to virulence coevolving with resistance or tolerance, three‐trait coevolution promotes more virulence and less tolerance, and broadens conditions under which pure defenses evolve. Second, the cost and efficiency of virulence and the epidemiological rates are the key factors of virulence coevolving with resistance and tolerance. Maximum virulence evolves for intermediate infection rate, at which coevolved levels of resistance and tolerance are both high. The influence of host and parasite background mortalities is strong on the evolution of defenses and weak on the coevolution of virulence. Third, evolutionary correlations between defenses can switch sign along single‐parameter gradients. The evolutionary trade‐off between resistance and tolerance may coevolve with virulence that either increases or decreases monotonically, depending on the underlying parameter gradient. Fourth, despite global attractiveness and stability of coevolutionary equilibria, not‐so‐rare and not‐so‐small mutations can beget large variation in virulence and defenses around equilibrium, in the form of transient “evolutionary spikes.” Implications for evolutionary management of infections are discussed and directions for future research are outlined.     

IS HIV SHORT‐SIGHTED? INSIGHTS FROM A MULTISTRAIN NESTED MODEL

An important component of pathogen evolution at the population level is evolution within hosts. Unless evolution within hosts is very slow compared to the duration of infection, the composition of pathogen genotypes within a host is likely to change during the course of an infection, thus altering the composition of genotypes available for transmission as infection progresses. We develop a nested modeling approach that allows us to follow the evolution of pathogens at the epidemiological level by explicitly considering within‐host evolutionary dynamics of multiple competing strains and the timing of transmission. We use the framework to investigate the impact of short‐sighted within‐host evolution on the evolution of virulence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and find that the topology of the within‐host adaptive landscape determines how virulence evolves at the epidemiological level. If viral reproduction rates increase significantly during the course of infection, the viral population will evolve a high level of virulence even though this will reduce the transmission potential of the virus. However, if reproduction rates increase more modestly, as data suggest, our model predicts that HIV virulence will be only marginally higher than the level that maximizes the transmission potential of the virus.     

HOST LIFE HISTORY AND THE EVOLUTION OF PARASITE VIRULENCE

Abstract.— We present a general epidemiological model of host‐parasite interactions that includes various forms of superinfection. We use this model to study the effects of different host life‐history traits on the evolution of parasite virulence. In particular, we analyze the effects of natural host death rate on the evolutionarily stable parasite virulence. We show that, contrary to classical predictions, an increase in the natural host death rate may select for lower parasite virulence if some form of superinfection occurs. This result is in agreement with the experimental results and the verbal argument presented by Ebert and Mangin (1997). This experiment is discussed in the light of the present model. We also point out the importance of superinfections for the effect of nonspecific immunity on the evolution of virulence. In a broader perspective, this model demonstrates that the occurrence of multiple infections may qualitatively alter classical predictions concerning the effects of various host life‐history traits on the evolution of parasite virulence.     

Multiple infections,kin selection and the evolutionary epidemiology of parasite traits

The coinfection of a host by several parasite strains is known to affect selective pressures on parasite strategies of host exploitation. I present a general model of coinfections that ties together kin selection models of virulence evolution and epidemiological models of multiple infections. I derive an analytical expression for the invasion fitness of a rare mutant in a population with an arbitrary distribution of the multiplicity of infection (MOI) across hosts. When a single mutation affects parasite strategies in all MOI classes, I show that the evolutionarily stable level of virulence depends on a demographic average of within‐host relatedness across all host classes. This generalization of previous kin selection results requires that within‐host parasite densities do not vary between hosts. When host exploitation strategies are allowed to vary across classes, I show that the strategy of host exploitation in a focal MOI class depends on the relative magnitudes of parasite reproductive values in the focal class and in the next. Thus, in contrast to previous findings, lower within‐host relatedness in competitive parasite interactions can potentially correspond to either higher or lower levels of virulence.     

PARASITE CO‐TRANSMISSION AND THE EVOLUTIONARY EPIDEMIOLOGY OF VIRULENCE

Hosts are often co‐infected by several parasite genotypes of the same species or even by different species and this is known to affect virulence evolution. However, epidemiological models typically assume that only one of the co‐infecting strains can be transmitted at the same time, which is often at odds with the observed biology. Here, I study the effect of co‐transmission on virulence evolution in a case where parasites compete for host resources. For co‐infections by strains of the same species, increased co‐transmission selects for less virulent strains. This is because co‐transmission aligns the interests of co‐infecting strains, thus decreasing the selective pressure for increased within‐host competitiveness. For co‐infection caused by different parasite species, the evolutionary outcome depends on the respective virulence of the two parasite species. Finally, I investigate asymmetric scenarios, for example that of plant viruses that require “helper” molecules produced by viruses from another species to be transmitted. These results show that even if parasite strains compete for host resources, the prevalence of co‐infections can be a poor predictor of virulence evolution.     

The epidemiological feedbacks critical to the evolution of host immunity

We examine in detail how epidemiological feedbacks combine with costs and benefits to determine the evolution of resistance by systematically analysing continuously stable strategies (CSS) for different host–parasite frameworks. The mode of resistance (innate versus acquired), the nature of the host (i.e. life‐history and immunological memory) and the nature of the disease (effects on fertility or mortality) all impact on the feedbacks that are critical to the evolution of resistance. By identifying relationships between CSS investment and the underlying epidemiological feedback for each mode of resistance in each framework, we distil complex feedbacks into simple combinations of selection pressures. When the parasite does not affect fertility, CSS investment reflects only the benefit of resistance and we explain why this is markedly different for innate and acquired resistance. If infection has no effect on host fertility, CSS investment in acquired immunity increases with the square of disease prevalence. While in contrast for evolving innate resistance, CSS investment is greatest at intermediate prevalence. When disease impacts fertility, only a fraction of the host population reproduce, and this introduces new ecological feedbacks to both the cost of resistance and the damage from infection. The multiple feedbacks in this case lead to the alternative result that the higher the abundance of infecteds, the higher the investment in innate resistance. A key insight is that maximal investment occurs at intermediate lifespans in a range of different host–parasite interactions, but for disparate reasons which can only be understood by a detailed analysis of the feedbacks. We discuss the extension of our approach to structured host populations and parasite community dynamics.     

How parasite interaction strategies alter virulence evolution in multi‐parasite communities

The majority of organisms host multiple parasite species, each of which can interact with hosts and competitors through a diverse range of direct and indirect mechanisms. These within‐host interactions can directly alter the mortality rate of coinfected hosts and alter the evolution of virulence (parasite‐induced host mortality). Yet we still know little about how within‐host interactions affect the evolution of parasite virulence in multi‐parasite communities. Here, we modeled the virulence evolution of two coinfecting parasites in a host population in which parasites interacted through cross immunity, immune suppression, immunopathology, or spite. We show (1) that these within‐host interactions have different effects on virulence evolution when all parasites interact with each other in the same way versus when coinfecting parasites have unique interaction strategies, (2) that these interactions cause the evolution of lower virulence in some hosts, and higher virulence in other hosts, depending on the hosts infection status, and (3) that for cross immunity and spite, whether parasites increase or decrease the evolutionarily stable virulence in coinfected hosts depended on interaction strength. These results improve our understanding of virulence evolution in complex parasite communities, and show that virulence evolution must be understood at the community scale.     

Virulence‐driven trade‐offs in disease transmission: A meta‐analysis*

The virulence–transmission trade‐off hypothesis proposed more than 30 years ago is the cornerstone in the study of host–parasite co‐evolution. This hypothesis rests on the premise that virulence is an unavoidable and increasing cost because the parasite uses host resources to replicate. This cost associated with replication ultimately results in a deceleration in transmission rate because increasing within‐host replication increases host mortality. Empirical tests of predictions of the hypothesis have found mixed support, which cast doubt about its overall generalizability. To quantitatively address this issue, we conducted a meta‐analysis of 29 empirical studies, after reviewing over 6000 published papers, addressing the four core relationships between (1) virulence and recovery rate, (2) within‐host replication rate and virulence, (3) within‐host replication and transmission rate, and (4) virulence and transmission rate. We found strong support for an increasing relationship between replication and virulence, and replication and transmission. Yet, it is still uncertain if these relationships generally decelerate due to high within‐study variability. There was insufficient data to quantitatively test the other two core relationships predicted by the theory. Overall, the results suggest that the current empirical evidence provides partial support for the trade‐off hypothesis, but more work remains to be done.     

Coevolution between parasite virulence and host life-history traits

Epidemiological models generally explore the evolution of parasite life-history traits, namely, virulence and transmission, against a background of constant host life-history traits. However, life-history models have predicted the evolution of host traits in response to parasitism. The coevolution of host and parasite life-history traits remains largely unexplored. We present an epidemiological model, based on resource allocation theory, that provides an analysis of the coevolution between host reproductive effort and parasite virulence. This model allows for hosts with either a fixed (i.e., genetic) or conditional (i.e., a phenotypically plastic) response to parasitism. It also considers superinfections. We show that parasitism always favors increased allocation to host reproduction, but because of epidemiological feedbacks, the evolutionarily stable host reproductive effort does not always increase with parasite virulence. Superinfection drives the evolution of parasite virulence and acts on the evolution of the host through parasite evolution, generally leading to higher host reproductive effort. Coevolution, as opposed to cases where only one of the antagonists evolves, may generate correlations between host and parasite life-history traits across environmental gradients affecting the fecundity or the survival of the host. Our results provide a theoretical framework against which experimental coevolution outcomes or field observations can be contrasted.     

Cost of strepsipteran macroparasitism for immature wasps: does sociality modulate virulence?

An important factor modulating parasite virulence is the level of extrinsic mortality experienced by hosts. Where it is high, parasites are expected to grow or reproduce quickly to complete their lifecycle before their host is killed, whereas virulence is expected to be less under low extrinsic mortality, where growth/reproduction can be slower. A prominent example of a low mortality environment for parasites are immature social insects. Here we examined the cost of parasitism, i.e. virulence, experienced by larval and pupal stages of Polistes wasps following infection by endoparasitic Strepsiptera (under starvation conditions). We found that there was no difference in virulence between infected and uninfected individuals for the seven days following infection; either measured as host mortality or mass loss. Likewise, there was no observed cost of parasitism during the first seven days of the pupal stage of the host. Growth of the endoparasitic stages appeared the same between starved laboratory individuals and field caught samples. Strepsipteran parasites apparently enter a lag phase until the later stages of host pupal development, which we speculate reduces the negative impact of parasitism during the hosts' critical developmental stages. Our results highlight the need for further inquiry into the influence of sociality upon the evolution of parasite virulence.     

Genetic diversity,virulence and fitness evolution in an obligate fungal parasite of bees

Within‐host competition is predicted to drive the evolution of virulence in parasites, but the precise outcomes of such interactions are often unpredictable due to many factors including the biology of the host and the parasite, stochastic events and co‐evolutionary interactions. Here, we use a serial passage experiment (SPE) with three strains of a heterothallic fungal parasite (Ascosphaera apis) of the Honey bee (Apis mellifera) to assess how evolving under increasing competitive pressure affects parasite virulence and fitness evolution. The results show an increase in virulence after successive generations of selection and consequently faster production of spores. This faster sporulation, however, did not translate into more spores being produced during this longer window of sporulation; rather, it appeared to induce a loss of fitness in terms of total spore production. There was no evidence to suggest that a greater diversity of competing strains was a driver of this increased virulence and subsequent fitness cost, but rather that strain‐specific competitive interactions influenced the evolutionary outcomes of mixed infections. It is possible that the parasite may have evolved to avoid competition with multiple strains because of its heterothallic mode of reproduction, which highlights the importance of understanding parasite biology when predicting disease dynamics.     

Multiple infections, immune dynamics, and the evolution of virulence

Understanding the effect of multiple infections is essential for the prediction (and eventual control) of virulence evolution. Some theoretical studies have considered the possibility that several strains coexist in the same host (coinfection), but few have taken their within-host dynamics explicitly into account. Here, we develop a nested approach based on a simple model for the interaction of parasite strains with their host's immune system. We study virulence evolution by linking the within-host dynamics to an epidemiological framework that incorporates multiple infections. Our model suggests that antigenically similar parasite strains cannot coexist in the long term inside a host. We also find that the optimal level of virulence increases with the efficiency of multiple infections. Finally, we notice that coinfections create heterogeneity in the host population (with susceptible hosts and infected hosts), which can lead to evolutionary branching in the parasite population and the emergence of a hypervirulent parasite strategy. We interpret this result as a parasite specialization to the infectious state of the hosts. Our study has experimental and theoretical implications in a virulence management perspective.     

Dose-dependent infection rates of parasites produce the Allee effect in epidemiology

In many epidemiological models of microparasitic infections it is assumed that the infection process is governed by the mass-action principle, i.e. that the infection rate per host and per parasite is a constant. Furthermore, the parasite-induced host mortality (parasite virulence) and the reproduction rate of the parasite are often assumed to be independent of the infecting parasite dose. However, there is empirical evidence against those three assumptions: the infection rate per host is often found to be a sigmoidal rather than a linear function of the parasite dose to which it is exposed; and the lifespan of infected hosts as well as the reproduction rate of the parasite are often negatively correlated with the parasite dose. Here, we incorporate dose dependences into the standard modelling framework for microparasitic infections, and draw conclusions on the resulting dynamics. Our model displays an Allee effect that is characterized by an invasion threshold for the parasite. Furthermore, in contrast to standard epidemiological models a parasite strain needs to have a basic reproductive rate that is substantially greater than 1 to establish an infection. Thus, the conditions for successful invasion of the parasite are more restrictive than in mass-action infection models. The analysis further suggests that negative correlations of the parasite dose with host lifespan and the parasite reproduction rate helps the parasite to overcome the invasion constraints of the Allee-type dynamics.     

Superinfection and the coevolution of parasite virulence and host recovery

Parasite strategies of host exploitation may be affected by host defence strategies and multiple infections. In particular, within‐host competition between multiple parasite strains has been shown to select for higher virulence. However, little is known on how multiple infections could affect the coevolution between host recovery and parasite virulence. Here, we extend a coevolutionary model introduced by van Baalen (Proc. R. Soc. B, 265, 1998, 317) to account for superinfection. When the susceptibility to superinfection is low, we recover van Baalen's results and show that there are two potential evolutionary endpoints: one with avirulent parasites and poorly defended hosts, and another one with high virulence and high recovery. However, when the susceptibility to superinfection is above a threshold, the only possible evolutionary outcome is one with high virulence and high investment into defence. We also show that within‐host competition may select for lower host recovery, as a consequence of selection for more virulent strains. We discuss how different parasite and host strategies (superinfection facilitation, competitive exclusion) as well as demographic and environmental parameters, such as host fecundity or various costs of defence, may affect the interplay between multiple infections and host–parasite coevolution. Our model shows the interplay between coevolutionary dynamics and multiple infections may be affected by crucial mechanistic or ecological details.     

Virulence and competitive ability in an obligately killing parasite

Mixed infections are thought to have a major influence on the evolution of parasite virulence. During a mixed infection, higher within‐host parasite growth is favored under the assumption that it is critical to the competitive success of the parasite. As within‐host parasite growth may also increase damage to the host, a positive correlation is predicted between virulence and competitive success. However, when parasites must kill their hosts in order be transmitted, parasites may spend energy on directly attacking their host, even at the cost of their within‐host growth. In such systems, a negative correlation between virulence and competitive success may arise. We examined virulence and competitive ability in three sympatric species of obligately killing nematode parasites in the genus Steinernema. These nematodes exist in a mutualistic symbiosis with bacteria in the genus Xenorhabdus. Together the nematodes and their bacteria kill the insect host soon after infection, with reproduction of both species occurring mainly after host death. We found significant differences among the three nematode species in the speed of host killing. The nematode species with the lowest and highest levels of virulence were associated with the same species of Xenorhabdus, indicating that nematode traits, rather than the bacterial symbionts, may be responsible for the differences in virulence. In mixed infections, host mortality rate closely matched that associated with the more virulent species, and the more virulent species was found to be exclusively transmitted from the majority of coinfected hosts. Thus, despite the requirement of rapid host death, virulence appears to be positively correlated with competitive success in this system. These findings support a mechanistic link between parasite growth and both anti‐competitor and anti‐host factors.     

Parasite evolution and extinctions

We examine the evolution of diseases that show the frequency‐dependent transmission process that is commonly applied to sexually and vector‐transmitted infections. As is commonly found, the basic reproductive ratio (R₀) of the parasite is maximized by evolution. This has important implications, as it implies that for a wide range of circumstances diseases that show frequency‐dependent transmission may be selected to evolve towards driving their hosts to extinction. This contrasts with the results obtained in spatially explicit models where although parasite‐driven host extinction may occur, it is unlikely to evolve. We further show that an evolutionary constraint between transmission and virulence is required for evolution to lead to an endemic coexistence of both the host and the disease. Furthermore, this constraint needs to be saturating, such that transmission is ‘bought’ at an increasing cost in terms of virulence, to avoid evolution to extinction.     

From within-host interactions to epidemiological competition: a general model for multiple infections

Many hosts are infected by several parasite genotypes at a time. In these co-infected hosts, parasites can interact in various ways thus creating diverse within-host dynamics, making it difficult to predict the expression and the evolution of virulence. Moreover, multiple infections generate a combinatorial diversity of cotransmission routes at the host population level, which complicates the epidemiology and may lead to non-trivial outcomes. We introduce a new model for multiple infections, which allows any number of parasite genotypes to infect hosts and potentially coexist in the population. In our model, parasites affect one another''s within-host growth through density-dependent interactions and by means of public goods and spite. These within-host interactions determine virulence, recovery and transmission rates, which are then integrated in a transmission network. We use analytical solutions and numerical simulations to investigate epidemiological feedbacks in host populations infected by several parasite genotypes. Finally, we discuss general perspectives on multiple infections.